2021 MLB Draft Review: Chicago White Sox

Full list of draftees

The White Sox have drafted a college player with their first pick every year since 2012, when they took Corpus Christi prep Courtney Hawkins, but they went back to the prep ranks to grab Colson Montgomery this year, who had been widely linked to them for weeks. Chicago would bring in three more preps in the second, fifth, and fifteenth rounds, making this one of their most prep-heavy drafts in recent years. It was also a pitcher heavy draft, because after the two prep infielders at the top, they went with ten straight arms from the third to twelfth rounds. They spent big early, combining to go roughly $1.1 million above slot value over their first five picks, then spent just a combined $90,000 in rounds six through ten to afford those overages. Overall, I like this draft for the White Sox and is probably the first one, given that they got a supreme high school talent that they were clearly in love with and did not have to go above slot value.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-22: SS Colson Montgomery, Southridge HS [IN]. My rank: #21.
Colson Montgomery was both an established name and a late riser in this year's draft. Long known as one of the better hitters in the class, he went on a tear late in the spring and showed extremely well at the MLB Draft Combine in June, and it became pretty publicly known around that time that he was the White Sox' "guy." There were a few teams interested in the top twenty, but he ended up making it to Chicago at #22 and they were excited to land their guy. Montgomery is one of the most projectable hitters in the class, showing big raw power from a 6'4" frame that he gets to consistently in games. It comes from a pretty ideal left handed swing in which he gets effectively uphill but stays long through the hitting zone, and he shows a strong eye at the plate when it comes to identifying hittable pitches. The southern Indiana native can get into a little bit of trouble when he gets overly power conscious and tries to hit home runs, so an early and hopefully easy fix will be helping him trust his natural strength at the plate. A star basketball player as well, he impressed with his athleticism at the combine and might be able to stick at shortstop, though he probably outgrows the position and shifts over to third base. Perhaps the biggest ding on Montgomery's profile is his age, as he turned 19 in February and needs to be evaluated like a college freshman. Still, there aren't many college freshmen out there who can hit like he can, and there remains a ton of upside here in the first round. I've seen Corey Seager comps. It took full slot value, roughly $3.03 million, to sign him out of an Indiana commitment. A native of the small town of Huntingburg between Evansville and Louisville, I guess you could consider this a hometown pick even if he's a bit closer to Cincinnati (150 miles) and St. Louis (175 miles) than Chicago (250 miles).

2-57: 3B Wes Kath, Desert Mountain HS [AZ]. My rank: #51.
There were rumors that Wes Kath could sneak into the back of the first round, so getting him here in the second round for a reasonable over slot bonus could be big value for the White Sox. He brings one of the better combinations of hit and power tools outside the first round, and despite his sturdy 6'3" frame he actually stood out more for that hitting ability early on. Kath is a professional hitter who manages the strike zone extremely well, easily handling advanced competition when he sees it. The Phoenix native also channels his strength into a leveraged left handed swing, producing high exit velocities and giving him the chance to hit 20-25 home runs or more annually at his ceiling. He's not nearly the athlete that Montgomery is, but he moves well and his cannon arm should help him stick at third base even in the shifting era. Like Montgomery, he's old for the class and turns 19 right around when this is getting published, but he's still five months younger than the first rounder. I could see him adjusting to pro baseball a little quicker than Montgomery but he probably doesn't have quite the ceiling. Still, it's a high probability impact bat as far as high school hitters go. Committed to Arizona State, he instead signed for $1.8 million, which was roughly $560,000 above slot value.

3-94: RHP Sean Burke, Maryland. My rank: #96.
Sean Burke represents an interesting addition for the White Sox, and they certainly paid for it with another over slot bonus. He missed his freshman season with Tommy John surgery, but was sharp over the shortened 2020 season (1.99 ERA, 35/11 K/BB) and was strong again over a full season in 2021, posting a 3.27 ERA and a 107/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings. First and foremost, it's the stuff that stands out for Burke, as he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and helps it play up with high spin rates and riding life. His curveball plays extremely well off his fastball with sharp downer action, and he added a new slider in 2021 that could be an above average pitch as well. The changeup is a fourth pitch and will be a point of development. The 6'5" righty is a springy athlete that has plenty enough arm strength to remain a starter, though he doesn't always repeat his delivery well and has below average command. Development of that command as well as his changeup will be his keys to sticking in the rotation, and the stuff and frame are so good that it's really easy to dream on his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter. The central Massachusetts native signed for $900,000, which was $281,800 above slot value.

4-124: LHP Brooks Gosswein, Bradley. Unranked.
The White Sox went with a true local pick in the fourth round, grabbing Bradley senior Brooks Gosswein. Gosswein attended Barrington High School in the northwestern Chicago suburbs, then headed downstate to Bradley University for school. He was never a star there, finishing with a 4.57 career ERA over 167.1 innings, and in 2021 he had a 5.13 ERA and a 53/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.2 innings. The 6'2" lefty shows a low 90's fastball that has been steadily adding velocity, getting up to 95-96 at times in 2021 and coming in with downhill plane and sink. He throws both a slider and a curveball which could be above average pitches, though he needs to work on the consistency, and he shows feel for an average changeup as well. He's generally around the zone with average command, and he has the arm strength and athleticism to hold his stuff deep into starts. Set to turn 23 after the season, he's not young, but the White Sox think there are enough puzzle pieces in place to put together a back-end starter. Gosswein signed for $200,000, which was $260,000 below slot value.

5-155: RHP Tanner McDougal, Silverado HS [NV]. My rank: #151.
This is a name that was trending up as the draft neared, just like Colson Montgomery but not quite as famous. He's a long, lean righty coming in at 6'5" or 6'6" depending on your publication of choice, armed with a low 90's fastball that tops out around 96, an improving curveball that is getting more downer action now, and an above average changeup for a high schooler with some tumble. Everything plays up because he has a loose delivery that puts high spin rates on his pitches in addition to a relatively low release point for his arm slot. There's room to add good weight, which could help him touch the mid 90's more often as well as get more power behind his curveball, which does not look as slurvy as it used to but which could still use to add some power down in the mid 70's. There's a lot of upside in this pick, and it took $850,000 to sign the Las Vegas native away from an Oregon commitment, a cool $510,000 above slot value.

11-335: RHP Christian Edwards, Jacksonville State. Unranked.
Skipping ahead a few rounds, we'll look at eleventh rounder Christian Edwards out of Jacksonville State. He has one of the biggest arms in the Deep South and was a breakout performer this year, posting a 2.48 ERA and a 83/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings in a hitter-friendly conference. Edwards is primarily known for his fastball, which sits in the mid 90's now and has touched as high as 99, also proving difficult to square up with its riding action. His slider is an above average pitch as well, helping him generate strikeouts. His lack of a third pitch and fringe-average command, as well as the fact that he turned 22 in March, likely point to a career in the bullpen, but he has a chance to be nasty in that role with closer upside. As a showcase of what he can do in short stints, the northern Alabama native struck out eight of the fourteen batters he faced in a brief Cape Cod League stint in 2019, allowing just one hit and one walk over four shutout innings. The 6'3" righty signed for $150,000, of which $25,000 counts against the White Sox' bonus pool.

18-545: C Adam Hackenberg, Clemson. Unranked.
Adam Hackenberg has long been a known commodity to scouts in the Virginia/Carolinas region, dating back to his prep days at the Miller School of Albemarle outside Charlottesville (under head coach Billy Wagner, no less). Though he never quite put it all together enough to jump into national conversations, he did show reasonably well against a tough ACC schedule in 2021, slashing .258/.357/.392 with three home runs and a 27/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games. Hackenberg comes from an ultra-athletic family, as both his parents (football and volleyball) and his uncle (football) were Division I athletes, while his older brother Christian Hackenberg was drafted by the Jets in the second round out of Penn State in 2016. In addition to the athletic genes, he's also known as one of the smartest players on the field at any point, consistently picking up all-academic honors. The central Virginia native shows off above average to plus raw power in batting practice, but it hasn't quite shown up in games consistently yet because he doesn't always elevate the ball or find the barrel. When he shortens up, he does a pretty good job of making consistent contact, but it does come at the expense of his power when he does so and it's hard for him to hit for both power and average at the same time. Hackenberg shows a strong arm behind the plate and should stick back there. It's a backup catcher profile with a chance for more if the White Sox can help him put everything together. He signed for $125,000.

19-575: SS Shawn Goosenberg, Northwestern. Unranked.
We'll finish off this review with the White Sox' second to last pick, a semi-hometown pick of Shawn Goosenberg out of Northwestern. Though he attended school in Evanston, Goosenberg is actually from the Los Angeles area, but he'll be staying in Chicago for his pro career. After a respectable .288/.338/.397 freshman season for the Wildcats, the Calabasas product has been one of the toughest outs in the Big Ten over the past two seasons, slashing .374/.433/.707 with twelve home runs and a 29/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games since 2020. There are some moving parts in his right handed swing but he does a very good job of getting the barrel to the baseball and hitting it hard, giving him a chance for above average power in pro ball. For now, he shows an extremely aggressive approach at the plate that keeps him from reaching many deep counts, something that could be exploited in pro ball once he gets there. It looks like a utility infield profile but there is some more upside if he does get his approach sorted out. He signed for $125,000.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Indians

Full list of draftees

I've been looking forward to this one for a while now. The Indians develop pitching as well as any team in baseball, so they took 19 pitchers in 21 picks, many of whom I think they can turn into absolute studs. Though they're a team known for drafting younger players, both in terms of high school vs college as well as relative to their class, they went on the older side here, with five of their first six picks set to turn 22 before the minor league season is done (and nine in total). There are a few reclamation projects here, a few guys just waiting for a breakout, and a couple who have already broken out, but I think every one of the pitchers they drafted fits perfectly into their system. I haven't seen the Indians mentioned among the top draft classes this year, but this looks like a sleeper to me to look fantastic ten years from now. I could easily see this class bringing on the next wave of rotation talent to follow the Shane Bieber/Mike Clevinger/Aaron Civale/Zach Plesac group that has anchored the staff as of late. I can't pick a favorite because I like them all, and I want to write about all of them but I just don't have the time with 22 more draft reviews to get through.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-23: RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina. My rank: #17.
Scouts have been waiting and waiting on a Gavin Williams breakout for years, and they finally got it in 2021. He showed a massive right arm when he was a high schooler in the Fayetteville, North Carolina prep ranks, but made it to campus at East Carolina and couldn't quite find his footing through his first three years, putting up a 3.57 ERA and a 70/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings in that frame. Finally healthy and on the mound for a full season in 2021, he put it all together for a 1.88 ERA and a 130/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings, closing it off with a thirteen strikeout performance in a super regional bout with Vanderbilt. The 6'6" righty has run his fastball up to 101 in the past, but sits comfortably in the mid to upper 90's deep into starts without much effort. His curveball has always shown huge depth, but it was tighter this year and looks like a plus pitch at times. He's also shown feel for an above average changeup for years now, and in 2021 he added in a slider that has been effective in its own right. Williams filled up the strike zone in 2021, albeit good not great command, and now has the look of a big league impact starter. As it turns out, it's hard to grow into your body when you're 6'6" and throw 100 but can't get consistent innings, so all he needed was to be on the mound regularly in order to figure it all out. He's a fourth year guy so he's a bit older, but he was actually young for his class and only turned 22 a few days before this was published. Williams signed for $2.25 million, which was about $680,000 below slot value.

2-58: LHP Doug Nikhazy, Mississippi. My rank: #52.
Another pick, another under slot signing for a player I actually had ranked ahead of where he was taken – AKA, great value. Doug Nikhazy is actually the exact opposite pitcher of Gavin Williams in a lot of ways. While Williams is a big righty with power stuff he can blow by hitters with ease, Nikhazy is an undersized lefty who gets by much more on command and sheer force of will. This year, like Williams, he was one of the best pitchers in the country, putting up a 2.45 ERA and a 142/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 innings against an extremely tough schedule. The lefty, who I've seen variously listed between 5'10" and 6', only tops out around 93-94 with his fastball and often sits close to 90, though the pitch does show great riding action that helps it play up. His curveball is his bread and butter, coming in with fringy velocity but huge depth, while his distinct slider is shorter and plays well off the curve and his changeup is a usable pitch as well. Nikhazy, or "Nikhrazy" as he has been nicknamed, is known around college baseball as one of the game's fiercest competitors, channeling Max Scherzer in his utter hatred for anyone who has the audacity to stand in the box against him. All of his pitches play up because of the conviction he brings behind each one, and it doesn't hurt that he shows above average command, either. There's a lot of crossfire in his drop-and-drive delivery, adding some deception on top of that. To succeed in pro ball, the Orlando-area native will likely need to add a tick of velocity, but doing so could make him an impact arm at the big league level. Even if the stuff stays where it is, you could see his intangibles carrying him to a #4/#5 starter role. He signed for $1.20 million, which was $14,300 below slot value.

CBB-69: RHP Tommy Mace, Florida. My rank: #43.
As with Gavin Williams and Doug Nikhazy, I really like this pick, and as with Nikhazy, the Indians are getting a fierce SEC competitor here. Tommy Mace has been on draft radars for a long time dating back to his high school days (like Williams), where he was considered a top five rounds prospect as a lanky, projectable pitcher, but he decided to head to Florida instead. Over his first three seasons in Gainesville, he made incremental steps forward in a variety of areas, but he never made the jump in stuff that scouts were hoping to see and he was one of the top (in my opinion, the top) undrafted college players in the shortened 2020 draft. Mace took the constructive criticism to heart during the pandemic and worked to remake his game, coming out in 2021 with a new repertoire. He worked in a four seam fastball more often that helped him get more swings and misses up in the zone, while continuing to deploy his usual two seamer down. After relying on a cutter as his primary breaking ball last year, he added a new, tight curveball that proved more effective at missing bats, while his changeup looks to have taken a small step forward as well. The 6'6" righty has always shown above average command and that did not change in 2021. The results were a bit more up and down than he might have liked, though, as he finished with a 4.38 ERA and a 113/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings against a tough schedule. The Tampa-area native was a bit more hittable against good lineups this year, but I'm still confident in his ability to make further adjustments, especially in Cleveland's system. Set to turn 23 after the season, he's on the older side, but Mace is exactly the kind of competitor I would not bet against. He signed for $1.1 million, which was roughly $130,000 above slot value.

3-95: SS Jake Fox, Lakeland Christian HS [FL]. Unranked.
The Indians only drafted two position players this year, and Jake Fox also represents one of only two high school players drafted. Ty Evans was seen as the top prospect on Lakeland Christian's baseball team coming into the season, but Evans had a rough spring while Fox impressed. Fox is a late bloomer who has steadily gotten better and better throughout his time in high school, slowly adding strength and bat speed to up his game. He now profiles as a very solid all-around offensive contributor whose beautiful left handed uppercut is now producing more power as he's added that strength. He's always shown feel to hit and the Indians believe he's going to continue to improve in their system, hence the big overslot gamble. The Floridian played shortstop for his high school team but will move off the position in pro ball, likely to second base, where his average athleticism is a better fit. He should have enough bat to profile there and seems like the kind of player who will maximize his skill set. Committed to Florida, Fox instead signed for $850,000, which was $239,200 above slot value.

4-125: LHP Ryan Webb, Georgia. My rank: #78.
Ryan Webb signed underslot here, but I think they have a chance to get massive value out of their fourth round pick. An under the radar guy early in his college career, he jumped onto the national scene with five shutout innings (including eleven strikeouts) in relief of Emerson Hancock in front of a big group of scouts in 2020. He finished that shortened season with a 1.20 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 innings, but teams weren't willing to meet his asking price on such a small sample so they left him undrafted. This year, it was more of the same for the Atlanta-area native, who put up a 3.32 ERA and an 82/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, but went down with Tommy John surgery in May. Still, I see a lot to like despite the fact that he's already 22 and won't throw a professional pitch until he's 23. The 6'1" lefty comes in with a low 90's fastball that has touched as high as 96, playing up due to the plane he puts on the baseball. He stands out even more for his feel to spin the baseball, showing a big breaking curveball with huge depth in addition to a distinct slider that is an above average pitch in its own right. The changeup should be a strong pitch for him in pro ball as well, even if the breaking balls are what he's known for. Everything in Webb's arsenal plays up further because of his ability to spot his pitches to both sides of the plate, so there really isn't standing in his way of becoming a #3 or #4 starter besides durability. The 59.2 innings this year were a career high and they ended in TJ, so Cleveland will want to focus on building up his strength to last over a full season. Given the success they tend to have with pitchers, a byproduct of that could end up being a slight uptick in velocity both for his fastball and offspeeds, which if it all comes together could make him a legitimate #2 starter. He signed for $400,000, which was $55,600 below slot value.

5-156: RHP Tanner Bibee, Cal State Fullerton. My rank: #228.
I really, really liked all four pitchers the Indians took up until this point. It's not that I dislike Tanner Bibee, just more that I'm not actively a fan. He's your classic Cal State Fullerton pitchability guy and like Williams, Mace, and Webb, he was eligible for the draft last year. 2021 was more good than great, as he plugged away to a 3.61 ERA and a 67/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings, showing more or less exactly the pitcher he is. The Southern California native sits in the low 90's and gets up to a respectable 94-95 at best, putting some tough angle on the baseball because he throws from the far third base side of the rubber and comes across his body in a crossfire delivery. His slider is an above average pitch that also plays up from that angle, perhaps being his separator from other mid-round pitchability arms. For now, the changeup is an average pitch at best. The 6'2" righty stands out most for his command of the baseball, locating his stuff with relative precision to both sides of the plate and attacking the zone with confidence. As it stands now, he probably fits best as a two pitch reliever in pro ball, but any uptick in his stuff could give him a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter. Bibee signed for $259,400, which was $77,200 below slot value.

7-216: RHP Jack Leftwich, Florida. My rank: #229.
Another round, another guy who is back after being eligible last year. Jack Leftwich is the second oldest player in this Indians draft class and the oldest that I will be writing about, having turned down a chance to be drafted towards the back of last year's draft so he could return to school with competitive balance pick Tommy Mace. Set to turn 23 in September, he's coming off the best year of his career, with a 3.36 ERA and a 78/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.2 innings, though most of them came as a long reliever rather than a starter in Florida's deep pitching staff. The Orlando native has a low 90's fastball that tops out around 95-96, also coming in with a full array of secondary pitches led by an above average slider. He's filled up the strike zone consistently all four years in Gainesville, though his control remains ahead of his command and he can be prone to leaving pitches over the plate. The 6'4" righty also throws with some effort, which combined with the average command and stuff probably points to a career in the bullpen. In this Indians pitching development system, you never know though. He signed for $167,000, which was $36,400 below slot value.

8-246: LHP Rodney Boone, UC Santa Barbara. My rank: #149.
This has a chance to be the real sleeper of the draft class for Cleveland. Rodney Boone has been nothing short of dominant at UC Santa Barbara, actually out-pitching his teammate and first round pick Michael McGreevy with a 2.52 ERA and a 239/79 strikeout to walk ratio over 199.2 career innings there (including a 2.31 ERA and a 128/39 K/BB this year). The only reason he lasted this long in the draft is velocity, as the Southern California native only sits in the mid to upper 80's with his fastball, scraping 90 when he reaches back in bullpens. The pitch plays up though because it has high spin rates and he gets a low release on the ball, giving it tremendous riding action for its velocity. His curveball, like his fastball, needs to add power, but it comes in with great shape and he has learned to throw it with more conviction. Boone also throws an above average changeup, giving him an offspeed weapon for both lefties and righties. To top it off, he shows above average command as well. Together, it's a pretty complete profile for the 6'1" lefty, who now needs to focus on eating as much as possible and tacking on weight to add power to his stuff. He doesn't need to throw 95 to succeed in the majors, but he does need to throw at least 91-92. He signed right at slot value for $167,000.

10-306: RHP Franco Aleman, Florida. Unranked.
Franco Aleman gives Cleveland their third Gator arm, joining Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich. He's an imposing presence on the mound with a strong 6'6" frame, pumping low to mid 90's fastballs in relief and climbing to 97-98 when he reaches back. Aleman's best secondary is an above average slider that he loves to attack hitters with, while his curveball and changeup are fringy. The Tampa native was up and down in 2021, posting a 5.74 ERA and a 65/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings as a swingman, but unlike many of the other players drafted this year he's young (just turned 21 in June) and has some time to smooth out his delivery. He's likely a reliever in pro ball unless he takes big steps forward with his secondaries or command, but he could be a great power reliever eventually pumping upper 90's fastballs in the late innings. He signed for $175,000, which was $31,500 above slot value.

14-426: RHP Trenton Denholm, UC Irvine. My rank: #215.
This is an interesting reclamation project for Cleveland. Trenton Denholm was eligible for the draft last year and was coming off a two year stretch with a 1.90 ERA over 123.1 innings, in addition to having 32.2 shutout innings over two summers in the elite Cape Cod League under his belt (albeit with one unearned run). Though he lacked big stuff, his excellent track record of performance as well as his extreme youth made him an attractive fourth-ish round option in 2020, but he priced himself out of the draft and returned to UC Irvine. Since then, his stock has taken a bit of a hit as he finished 2021 with a 4.61 ERA and a 70/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings with a pitcher-friendly home park, which aren't exactly the numbers you look for when performance is your best attribute. He's an undersized right hander at 5'11" that sits around 90 with his fastball and only tops out around 93, working in a fringy curveball and slider. His changeup is his best pitch, coming in with excellent fade. In the past, he succeeded in keeping hitters off balance well, but they adjusted to him in 2021 and exposed some of his weaknesses. Still, since he is extremely young for a fourth year college player and won't turn 22 until after the season, the Indians have time to get him back on top. The Sacramento-area native is known as an intense competitor who pounds the strike zone and commands his pitches well, and if he can take an incremental step forward with either of his breaking balls, it could be enough to keep hitters off his other pitches. You don't throw 32.2 shutout innings on the Cape without something special going on, and he should be an adjustment or two away from becoming a useful back-end starter or long reliever. He signed for $150,000, $25,000 of which counts against Cleveland's bonus pool.

17-516: RHP Tyler Thornton, Arizona State. My rank: #213.
One more reclamation project here. Tyler Thornton, like Trenton Denholm, entered the season with much more of a performance-based than a stuff-based profile. Indeed, he was the West Coast Conference Freshman of the Year after posting a 2.71 ERA and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.1 innings at Saint Mary's in 2019, then transferred to Arizona State and was strong in the shortened 2020 season (3.38 ERA, 25/7 K/BB). However, he was hit significantly harder in 2021 and finished with a 5.54 ERA and a 78/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.1 innings. The 6'3" righty is a bit of a soft tosser, sitting around 90 with his fastball and adding an above average changeup as well as a fringy curveball, though that stuff backed up a bit towards the end of the season. He still has a lot of room to get stronger and add weight to that string bean frame, something that will be important given his fastball was sitting upper 80's by the season's end. Thornton comes from a low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot that puts nice movement on his fastball and changeup, and I could see him adding a slider in Cleveland's system. The San Diego-area native also shows the ability to command his pitches to both sides of the plate, and given that he just turned 21 shortly before the draft, he has some extra time to develop. If the Indians can get him a little stronger and help that stuff take a step forward, he has all the ingredients to be an impact starting pitcher. That's great value in the seventeenth round, where he signed for just $50,000.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

Full list of draftees

The Braves played this draft about as straight up as you tend to see in the modern game, hovering around the slot values for most of their signings aside from a big over slot on AJ Smith-Shawver in the seventh round. First rounder Ryan Cusick obviously comes with the most upside, while second rounder Spencer Schwellenbach is the interesting two-way talent and third and fifth rounders Dylan Dodd and Luke Waddell figure to be the quick movers. There's sneaky upside in fourth and sixth rounders Cal Conley and Justyn-Henry Malloy, while Malloy, Waddell, and seventeenth rounder Tyler Tolve were all taken from ATL schools. I don't have any one pick that I loved in particular here, so I'll go with Malloy as my modest favorite.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-24: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest. My rank: #28.
Another year, another Massachusetts-born Wake Forest arm in the back of the first round. A year after taking Jared Shuster with the 25th overall pick, the Braves went back to Winston-Salem to bring Ryan Cusick down I-85 to the ATL. This is a really interesting arm who has a chance to do some really big things in Atlanta, but will take some work to get there. A product of the same Avon Old Farms boarding school in Connecticut that produced George Springer (via UConn) and 2020 Orioles second round pick Hudson Haskin (via Tulane), Cusick is a massive 6'6" righty that owns the fastest pitch ever recorded in college baseball (thrown to first overall pick Henry Davis no less). That fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and he holds that premium velocity deep into games, and the famous Henry Davis pitch came in at 101.7 on the Trackman gun. The Boston-area native also drops in a power curveball that looks like a true plus pitch at its best, and he can get some nice fade on his changeup as well. The problem for Cusick has been consistency, which would explain why his 4.24 ERA and 108/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings this year don't look as overpowering as you'd expect given the stuff described above. While he generally does a good job of filling up the strike zone, he's shown little feel to hit his spots within it and has innings every now and again where he can't find the zone at all. His release point has wandered on the fastball, while his curve can flatten out at times and the changeup plays below average despite its movement because he struggles to locate it. There is a ton of upside to unlock here, and the Braves do a good job with pitching in general, so you could be seeing a future ace. I feel like we say every drafted pitcher's stuff could "play up in the bullpen at worst," but Cusick could especially thrive in that role given his problems with consistency. He signed for $2.7 million, which was about $130,000 below slot value.

2-59: RHP Spencer Schwellenbach, Nebraska. My rank: #67.
The top two-way player in this draft (unless you count Bubba Chandler, who was primarily viewed as a pitcher), Spencer Schwellenbach will be a fun follow for that reason alone. He hit .284/.403/.459 with six home runs and a 44/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games this season, while also posting a 0.57 ERA and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings coming out of the Nebraska bullpen. Schwellenbach was announced as a pitcher and I'm not sure whether the Braves plan to let him hit, but regardless, I do prefer the arm. He actually didn't pitch until this spring due to elbow problems, but the stuff was electric when he finally got on the mound. The 6'1" righty ran his fastball up to 99 and sat in the mid 90's out of the bullpen, adding a potentially plus slider and an above average changeup as well. College relievers have a very poor track record, but Schwellenbach is obviously a very unique case as a full time position player who didn't actually pitch as a freshman or a sophomore. At the plate, the central Michigan native shows a compact swing from the right side that began producing more power in 2021. He's a decent defender at shortstop, but with that arm, he could be an asset at third base. I definitely see more upside with the power stuff on the mound, but he has a chance to be a utility infielder as well with a ceiling of 15-20 home runs per season and solid on-base percentages. As a bonus, he's young for the class and only turned 21 at the end of May. He signed for $1 million, which was about $190,000 below slot value.

3-96: LHP Dylan Dodd, Southeast Missouri State. Unranked.
The Braves opted to save a little more money here, grabbing fifth year senior Dylan Dodd out of Southeast Missouri State. The Kankakee JC transfer had the best year of his career in 2021, posting a 3.17 ERA and a 120/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings, and it wasn't as weak of a schedule as you might expect as it included starts against NCAA Tournament teams Arkansas, South Alabama, and Ole Miss (combined 4.50 ERA, 25/6 K/BB in 18 IP). Dodd's fastball sits in the low 90's, touching 95-96 at best and playing up due to high spin rates. He adds an average curve and slider that get swings and misses when he locates them, as well as an above average changeup. Everything, especially the changeup, plays up because of his above average command. The 6'3" lefty has a chance to stick in the rotation because of that command, in addition to his strong build, despite his otherwise average stuff. However, the fact that he turned 23 in June means the Braves might not be patient enough to let him work his way up in that role, and in the bullpen he could dump one of his breaking balls and focus on the changeup. The eastern Illinois native signed for $122,500, which was $482,300 below slot value.

4-126: SS Cal Conley, Texas Tech. My rank: #138.
This is a performance-based pick. Cal Conley has done nothing but hit since stepping into Texas Tech's lineup in 2020, slashing .339/.405/.600 with 18 home runs and a 49/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 games in his Red Raider career. He's a clearly above average hitter that makes a ton of hard contact, which in turn limits both his strikeouts (15.1% career rate) and his walks (8.9%). The raw power is only average, but he gets to all of it because the switch hitter consistently finds the barrel from both sides of the plate. If scouts were confident he could tap it consistently with wood bats, he would likely have gone in the top 100 picks, but there are some who believe his college home runs will turn into doubles off the wall in pro ball. Even in that case, he will likely hit a lot of them. The Cincinnati-area native is a high-energy player who manned shortstop for Texas Tech, where his range is a bit stretched, but he he'll be just fine at second base or third base. It's a utility floor with a chance to turn into a very productive regular if the power shows up like the Braves think it will. He's slightly old for the class, having turned 22 shortly after the draft, and he remains unsigned with a $451,800 slot value.

5-157: SS Luke Waddell, Georgia Tech. My rank: #200.
Atlanta went local with a Georgia Tech pick here, but Luke Waddell, like Conley, actually grew up in the Cincinnati area. You can critique the lack of upside, but nobody can deny the floor here as Waddell has been one of the ACC's most consistent hitters over the last four years, slashing .308/.407/.432 with twelve home runs and a 62/92 strikeout to walk ratio over 172 games in his Yellow Jacket career. He shows exceptional feel for the strike zone and struck out in just 8% of his plate appearances in his career (and just 5.8% in 2021), consistently putting the ball in play with a contact-oriented, line drive approach. Waddell also upped his stock a bit this year by hitting a career-high eight home runs, but he still projects for below average power in pro ball. Just 5'9", we're probably talking about a utility ceiling at best, but he's a professional hitter through and through who should be able to make the transition to pro ball very easily and move relatively quickly once there. Having turned 23 on the third day of the draft, he was one of the older players taken this year and is just a month younger than Dylan Dodd. He signed for $247,500, which was $85,800 below slot value.

6-187: 1B Justyn-Henry Malloy, Georgia Tech. Unranked.
Here the Braves picked up a second straight Yellow Jacket, but once again, he was attending Georgia Tech from out of state. Justyn Henry-Malloy is a northern New Jersey product who barely played in two years at Vanderbilt, then broke out with the bat this year upon transferring to Georgia Tech, slashing .308/.436/.558 with eleven home runs and a 40/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. Malloy stands out for his patient approach and ability to keep his strikeouts down even when he works into deep counts, something that will undoubtedly be a boon in pro ball when he faces better competition. There is also above average raw power in the tank here, coming from a leveraged right handed swing powered by strong wrists that snap the barrel through the zone. A third baseman at Georgia Tech, he already faced skepticism over his ability to stick there and judging by the fact that the Braves drafted him as a first baseman, it doesn't look like they'll waste any time trying him out there. As a right handed hitting first baseman, the bat will have to carry him, but the puzzle pieces are in place for the 6'2" slugger to outplay his platoon bat projection and hit his way into the everyday lineup. He signed for $297,500, which was $40,100 above slot value.

7-217: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, Colleyville Heritage HS [TX]. Unranked.
After sticking more or less close to slot value over their first six picks, the Braves made their big over slot splash in the seventh round with high school right hander AJ Smith-Shawver. The Dallas-Fort Worth prep is actually relatively new to pitching, having instead spent most of his focus on playing quarterback and put no focus into pitching until this spring. When he came out pumping low 90's fastballs, his stock soared. The 6'3" righty can touch 95 at his best, but there looks to be much more in the tank as he adds weight to his extremely athletic frame, in addition to mechanical changes to improve the kinetic chain from his legs to his arm. There's also a curveball that's average for now, but it has excellent shape and could become a true plus pitch as he adds power and gets more feel for it. For now, a changeup has been more or less an afterthought for Smith-Shawver, something I don't think the Braves are too concerned with. There's a lot of development to be done here, from mechanical cleanup to pro conditioning to development of that changeup, but there's no questioning that this is a supremely talented arm who could take off in their system. Committed to Texas Tech with a chance to play football as well, he signed for $997,500, which was $795,900 above slot value and roughly equivalent to slot value for the 67th overall pick.

17-517: C Tyler Tolve, Kennesaw State. Unranked.
While Georgia Tech stars Justyn-Henry Malloy and Luke Waddell came from out of state, Kennesaw State catcher Tyler Tolve represents a true hometown pick having attended Sprayberry High School in Marietta, just ten miles north of Truist Park. He's hit nearly nonstop in three seasons for the Owls, slashing .313/.393/.444 with eight home runs and a 91/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games, with seven of those home runs coming this season. There's not a ton of video or information available on him, but there's still a lot to like on the surface. He's a 6'2" left handed hitter who tapped his power better than ever in 2021, and he's faster than most catchers as well, picking up eight stolen bases this year. His athleticism will give him a chance to stick behind the plate and be more than a one-dimensional hitter, though he will need to cut down a bit on his swing and miss. His age is a bonus here, having only turned 21 shortly after the draft. He projects as a backup catcher in the long run and signed for $125,000.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Oakland Athletics

Full list of draftees

For the second straight year, the A's grabbed a prep hitter out of California in the back of the first round, but from there it was virtually all college with Puerto Rican prep pitcher Eduardo Rivera (eleventh round) representing the only other high schooler in the haul. There was no one big overslot signing here, as Oakland instead opted to spread its money around pretty evenly and grab a couple of moderately overslot college players in the middle of day two. It was a little more hitter-heavy on days one and two and a little more pitcher-heavy on day three, but ultimately the A's picked up a diverse variety of players and didn't really stick to one demographic, aside from mainly college guys. They also took a lot of guys that I'm a little extra interested to see how they turn out, including first rounder Max Muncy, third rounder Mason Miller, fourth rounder Denzel Clarke, and ninth rounder Shane McGuire.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-25: SS Max Muncy, Thousand Oaks HS [CA]. My rank: #37.
We've probably all heard multiple times by now that this isn't the Dodgers' Max Muncy and he shares no relation, even though he did grow up in the Los Angeles suburbs. I've been interested in the younger Max Muncy throughout the whole draft cycle, and I wasn't surprised to see him rising towards the end of the spring. He has plenty of room to grow into his rangy 6'1" frame, and while he might not be the most athletic kid in the class, he uses his body very well and gets the most out of it, which will bode well for him as he grows and adds strength. Muncy shows great feel for the barrel from the right side, with plenty of plate coverage and the ability to do damage to all parts of the park, which again is something that he'll only get better at as he gets stronger. Defensively, there's a split camp as to whether he's athletic enough to handle shortstop, but I see enough arm strength to make it work as an above average third baseman and the A's likely think he'll stick at shortstop outright. Overall, Muncy may not have one standout tool that most first rounders show, but I like the overall package a lot and I think he'll grow into his game nicely. It took $2.85 million to sign him away from an Arkansas commitment, which was about $110,000 above slot value.

2-60: 3B Zack Gelof, Virginia. My rank: #101.
The industry was a bit split on Zack Gelof, who has been a bit more inconsistent than the typical Virginia draft prospect. He was off to a hot start in 2020, slashing .349/.469/.746 when the season shut down, but got off to a slow start in 2021 before righting the ship later on and finishing at .312/.393/.485 with nine home runs and a 40/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. Those who have watched Gelof regularly see all of the offensive tools to succeed, but not necessarily at the same time. There's above average raw power in his 6'3" frame, which he has shown the ability to tap despite playing at a pitcher-friendly home park. The Delaware native also has shown a disciplined approach that has enabled high on-base percentages in Charlottesville and makes him an all-around asset at the plate. To this point, though, he hasn't quite shown both at the same time. He can hit for power, but when he does, it often comes with some moderate swing and miss. On the other hand, when he's focused on making contact and putting the ball in play, sometimes he can hit for less impact. The A's likely believe that's partly due to that power-suppressing home park, and once he gets into more neutral environments in pro ball, he'll put it all together. The Coliseum may be similar to Davenport Field in Charlottesville, but at least he won't experience the same drop-off as other hitters. Gelof signed for slot value at $1.16 million.

3-97: RHP Mason Miller, Gardner-Webb. My rank: #128.
Mason Miller is a really interesting one. He was lightly recruited out of his Pittsburgh-area high school and began his college career at Division III Waynesburg University, where he was a non-factor over his first two seasons before being diagnosed with Type I diabetes and taking a step forward as a junior in 2019. He transferred to Gardner-Webb after graduating and has continued to build his stock, finishing with a 3.30 ERA and a 121/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings. Miller is a power arm that comfortably sits in the mid 90's and touched 99 at the combine, coming in with a low release point and high spin that give his fastball a very flat plane up in the zone. The 6'5" righty adds an above average slider as well that is his main secondary, while his changeup is his clear third pitch. Miller fills up the strike zone and has the frame and stuff to project as a starter at the next level. Working against him is age, as he'll turn 23 in August, but the A's are buying into the incredibly steep, upward trajectory he's on and think he'll continue to improve in their system. If the changeup doesn't come along or the command doesn't make the transition, his fastball/slider combination could be deadly out of the bullpen. Miller signed at slot value for $599,100.

4-127: OF Denzel Clarke, Cal State Northridge. My rank: #115.
In the fourth round, the A's came back to the west coast and brought on one of the best athletes in the class. The son of an olympic heptathlete and a cousin of Josh and Bo Naylor, Denzel Clarke has combined that athleticism with performance by slashing .341/.464/.615 with eleven home runs, twenty stolen bases, and a 65/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 53 games over the last two seasons. There's plus raw power in his 6'5" frame, and he has been tapping it more and more consistently in games. He's also a plus runner that can make an impact on both sides of the ball, giving him the chance to stick in center field in the long run. The hit tool is a bit less proven, as Clarke struck out at a 23% clip against decent Big West pitching this year, and some evaluators noted that most of his damage came against lower quality arms and he struggled against better stuff. Still, others will note that the Toronto-area native is absolutely trending in the right direction with his approach, and getting him into a pro development system to continue that trend could bring big results. The A's are betting on Clarke's considerable ceiling this year and think that he could be the type to burst into pro ball and take a lot of people by surprise. He signed for $700,000, which was about $252,600 above slot value and the equivalent to mid-third round money.

5-158: C CJ Rodriguez, Vanderbilt. Unranked.
CJ Rodriguez's ascent to stardom came relatively quickly. He played in twelve games in the shortened 2020 season, but became Vanderbilt's starting catcher in 2021 and produced, slashing .249/.393/.378 with five home runs and an excellent 19/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. Rodriguez is not a flashy player – rather, he uses his high baseball IQ and good knowledge of his own game to contribute quietly. While the 5'10" backstop doesn't have a ton of power, he finds the barrel consistently with a simple right handed stroke and manages the strike zone superbly, which will make the transition to pro pitching much easier for him. Behind the plate, he's a quiet leader with plenty of big game experience, and has deftly handled famous arms like Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, Christian Little, and Patrick Reilly. Again, that experience with first round stuff will come in handy in pro ball. The Los Angeles-area native also has a strong arm that plays up due to his quick release and strong instincts. To me, it's a pretty clear backup catcher profile, but if he can tack on a little bit of power he could manage as a glove-first regular. He signed for $400,000, which was about $69,900 above slot value.

6-188: RHP Grant Holman, California. My rank: #167.
Grant Holman entered campus in Berkeley as a two-way player, and he actually slashed .264/.348/.414 with five home runs over his first two seasons. However, he dropped hitting during the pandemic and came back to campus in the fall of 2020 as a pitcher-only, and his stuff took a boost. The fastball touched 97 and sat in the mid 90's in fall practice, and his secondaries looked a bit sharper as well. After sitting out the first month of the regular season with biceps problems, he came out and had a solid but unspectacular spring with a 3.83 ERA and a 46/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 innings. The stuff looked good, but he didn't quite build the fall like some scouts had hoped. The huge, 6'6" righty gets great lower half extension down the mound, then releases from high off the ground to put steep downhill plane on his pitches. He gets nice life on his fastball, though it should be noted that today, low release heights with flat approach angles are more in style. Behind that big fastball is a full array of secondaries, all of which are a work in progress. His slider is probably his best, flashing above average at times, though it and his curveball can get loopy at times. The changeup is fringe-average for now, while his command can flash average but is inconsistent. He's more of a traditional starting pitching prospect in that his pitch and delivery data don't uncover any high spin rates or the like, but the A's are buying into his frame, arm strength, age (he just turned 21 at the end of May), and the fact that he just gave up hitting last year. The San Diego-area product signed for $375,000, which was $119,700 above slot value.

9-278: C Shane McGuire, San Diego. Unranked.
This is a really interesting one for me. Shane McGuire improved every year at San Diego, jumping from .287/.417/.362 as a freshman in 2018 to .325/.444/.401 as a sophomore and .469/.561/.688 in his pandemic-shortened junior season. That didn't quite carry over to 2021, where he hit a quieter but still respectable .278/.389/.483 with a career high six home runs and a 14/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games. The younger brother of Blue Jays catcher Reese McGuire, Shane stands out first and foremost for his exceptional bat to ball skills, which have led to just a 10.9% strikeout rate over four years at San Diego and a minuscule 6.5% rate in 2021. He shows some easy pop in his 6' frame and slight uppercut swing, but he tends to get on top of balls and hits a lot of low line drives, which led to hitting just one home run in each of his first three seasons. The Seattle-area native is a bit choppy behind the plate, but shows off a strong arm that will keep him back there for now and possibly for good once robot umpires show up. Though he's a bit older as a fourth year player who turned 22 in April, I think there's more upside here than you might expect, as some swing tweaks could help him tap more power in pro ball and his plate discipline will enable him to make the most of it. He signed for $100,000, which was $50,800 below slot value.

14-428: OF Jonny Butler, North Carolina State. Unranked.
Jonny Butler spent his freshman season at Heartland JC in Illinois, then transferred to NC State and improved every year. In 2021, Butler was one of the best hitters in the ACC, slashing .376/.452/.663 with 14 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 45/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games against a tough schedule, anchoring a Wolfpack lineup that made a deep Omaha run only cut short by a COVID outbreak. Butler brings a very interesting bat with a left handed swing that's long through the zone but still manages to put plenty of loft on the baseball, enabling him to handle and do damage against premium arms. In fact, he was one of just five players to homer off of Golden Spikes winner Kevin Kopps this year. There's at least average power in the tank as he manipulates the barrel well and hits the ball hard. He's an average runner who probably profiles as a left fielder in the long run, so the bat will have to carry him, and he's a fourth year guy who turned 22 in February. Still, I really like this pick in the fourteenth round, where he signed for $125,000.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

Full list of draftees

For the first time since Tyler Jay in 2015, the Twins selected a pitcher with their first pick, and for the first time since Kohl Stewart in 2013, it was a high school pitcher. In fact, five of the Twins' first seven picks were pitchers. Known for drafting power bats, Minnesota did grab Oklahoma State third baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the fourth round, but ultimately it looks like that wasn't the focus this year. After they took high schoolers with their first two picks (the only high schoolers they took in the draft), it looks like the focus turned to college lefties with three in the next four picks, all of whom seem to be incomplete projects who will take some professional development. I think this is an interesting class and I'm curious to see how a lot of these guys develop, and I'll say I like it, but don't love it. My favorite pick was probably the first one, Chase Petty.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-26: RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS [NJ]. My rank: #24.
The Twins' first arm to begin a draft in half a dozen years, Minnesota will hope for better from Chase Petty than they got from Jay and Stewart, as the latter has thrown just 75.2 major league innings and the former never made it. Petty is the hardest thrower in the prep class, running his fastball up as high as 102 and very comfortably sitting in the low to mid 90's over longer outings. His slider is relatively inconsistent, but at its best, it looks like a true plus, even plus-plus pitch with both power and shape. The Jersey Shore product also shows a changeup that, while behind his fastball and slider, is certainly a playable pitch and is trending towards above average. Petty may be undersized at six foot even, which you would think would add further fear for the hard throwing prep demographic (I wrote in the Padres writeup how Chase Burns made me nervous), but I'm actually not terribly worried about his arm falling off. He's a bit of a freak athlete that gets down the mound extraordinarily well, driving off his back leg and beautifully converting that power into arm speed and velocity. For that reason, I think his arm has a better chance than most to hold up over increased usage, though the risk remains regardless because it's not natural to throw an object 102 miles per hour. At the back of the first round, I'd be very happy taking that risk. Slot value is $2.65 million and my guess is he'll require at least that much to sign away from a Florida commitment.

CBA-36: SS Noah Miller, Ozaukee HS [WI]. My rank: #129.
This was a bit of a surprise pick, but high schoolers can have greater variance in their stocks from team to team. That's especially true with a guy like Noah Miller, who didn't participate in many big events or face a ton of top competition. Given that his brother is Owen Miller, who recently reached the big leagues with the Indians, he was pretty well known around the industry, but some teams that value exposure to advanced competition weren't comfortable with him. However, he was a favorite of area scouts, many of whom were not only comfortable, but excited about the profile. The Twins clearly fall into that second boat, opting to go all in on a talent that was picking up steam as Wisconsin finally warmed up. He's a switch hitter with great feel to hit from both sides of the plate, showing a broad skill set from an athletic 6' frame that will translate very nicely to the Twins' development program. The rural Wisconsin product is also growing into some power and is an above average defender at shortstop, showing the kind of profile that might have gotten more love on the national scale if it had in fact been seen more often at big events. Though I have him well outside my top one hundred, I don't mind the pick at all, given that I haven't seen him as much. Minnesota has $2.05 million to spend here in the competitive balance round, but he will likely sign for less to forego an Alabama commitment.

2-61: LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan. My rank: #79.
I find Steven Hajjar to be a really interesting arm. He didn't pitch in 2019 after tearing his ACL, then looked solid in his shortened sophomore year in 2020 with a 2.70 ERA and a 24/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings. At that point, the 6'5" lefty excited evaluators with his huge frame, youth, projection, and stuff that was ticking up. That stuff was a tick down in the fall, and he never really regained it in the spring, but still showed well with a 3.09 ERA and a 110/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings. Hajjar sits in the low 90's at his best, though he did hover around 90 at times in 2021 and even dipped into the upper 80's. He also shows an inconsistent curveball and slider that can be distinctly above average pitches at their best, but which often blend into each other and get slurvy. His changeup has been more consistent so far and projects as above average in pro ball. Given his spotty command and some difficulty in repeating his delivery, it was a pretty dull profile if you saw him on the wrong days, but there's a lot to like here. The Boston-area native has shown plenty of arm strength in the past, touching 94-95 regularly last summer, and he impressed evaluators by hitting 97 with his final pitch at the MLB Draft Combine this June. He's also young for the class, not turning 21 until August, giving the Twins that much extra time to develop him and help him grow into his stuff. Unlike first rounder Chase Petty, who has very loud "now" stuff, Minnesota hopes that it can help Hajjar grow into his game and become an impact rotation piece once he gets there. He signed for slot value at $1.13 million.

3-98: LHP Cade Povich, Nebraska. Unranked.
For their third round pick, the Twins went back to the Big Ten and grabbed another lefty. Povich started off at South Mountain JC in Phoenix, then came home to Nebraska to pitch for the Cornhuskers. After an up and down 2020 season, he found consistency in 2021 and finished with a 3.11 ERA and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 innings. Standing 6'3", he doesn't quite have Hajjar's projection, with a bit of a skinnier frame and less arm strength. He's more crafty than anything else, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and scraping 93 at best. The Omaha-area native adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which are useful pitches when he mixes and locates them well, which is often. I'd say the curveball is a bit behind the other two, but if he can add a tick of strength and maybe bump that fastball a bit closer to 94-95, he has some upside as a back-end starter. Otherwise, it might be more of a long relief profile. He signed for $500,000, which was $93,100 below slot value.

4-128: 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Oklahoma State. My rank: #145.
It took until the fourth round, but we finally got our patented Twins power bat in Christian Encarnacion-Strand. A California Bay Area native, Encarnacion-Strand started off at Yavapai JC in Arizona and was an absolute monster, slashing .410/.482/.871 with 33 home runs over two years. He moved on to Oklahoma State in 2021, where he just kept hitting and slashed .361/.442/.661 with 15 home runs and a 50/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. The 6' right handed hitter is simply a hitting machine, consistently squaring up baseballs wherever he goes with a short, somewhat unconventional swing. He's not necessarily long through the zone, and his follow through is notably short, but his barrel is quick to the ball and he channels his above average power into that swing well. Encarnacion-Strand is an aggressive hitter who walked in only 7.5% of his plate appearances, and while he shows his fair share of swing and miss, it's not excessive. He's not a lock to stick at third base, especially in the shifting era, but his strong arm will give him a shot. He signed for slot value at $442,900.

5-159: LHP Christian MacLeod, Mississippi State. My rank: #146.
Christian MacLeod (pronounced "Ma-cloud") had an up and down season that saw his name creep into first round conversations early on, and he carried a 3.14 ERA into late May, but ultimately hit a wall and allowed 25 earned runs over his final 16.2 innings and finished with a 5.23 ERA and a 113/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings. He missed his freshman season with pneumonia and made just four starts in 2020 (albeit with a sparkling 0.86 ERA and a 35/6 K/BB), so durability was always a question and the late season skid didn't alleviate any concerns. At his best, the 6'4" lefty looks like a middle of the rotation stalwart, showing a low 90's fastball, a plus curveball, and an above average changeup, all while pounding the strike zone with a competitive edge. At other times, however, MacLeod's fastball can dip into the upper 80's, his curveball can lose its bite, and his changeup can play down to being an average pitch. Minnesota will hope a pro conditioning program and some coaching to smooth out his rigid delivery will help get him consistently to his best self, in which case he has a good shot to settle in as a consistent mid to back-end starter. Otherwise, the Huntsville native is probably destined for relief, where that delivery won't be as much of an issue and he won't have to pace himself when it comes to his stuff. Slot value is $327,200, and I figure he'll require something around there to sign.

7-219: 3B Jake Rucker, Tennessee. My rank: #165.
Jake Rucker wasn't much of a prospect early in his Tennessee career after hitting .273/.358/.339 as a freshman, but he's raked over the past two seasons to the tune of a .331/.404/.531 line, 12 home runs, and a 76/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games against a tough schedule. He shows great feel for the barrel from the right side that has enabled him to tap all of the power in his skinny 6'1" frame, proving to be one of the best hitters in a loaded Tennessee lineup. He struck out at over a 20% clip in 2021, which will be something to watch going forward, and it may necessitate sacrificing some of his power for more contact in pro ball. The Nashville-area native manned third base for the Volunteers this year and probably figures to stay there, with second base a possibility as well, and he profiles as an average defender at either. It's probably a utility profile for Rucker, but I like his bat and if he keeps hitting the way he has, he could force his way into the every day lineup eventually. That's nice value for his $250,000 signing bonus, which was $51,500 above slot value here in the seventh round.

8-249: C Noah Cardenas, UCLA. My rank: #239.
Noah Cardenas really put himself on the map by slashing .375/.476/.500 as a true freshman in 2019, and despite a quieter 2020 (.237/.367/.289 in the shortened season), he very much remained in the second round picture heading into 2021. Unfortunately, concerns about his impact ability at the plate turned out to be warranted, as he slashed a pedestrian .268/.371/.404 with five home runs and a 43/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for UCLA this year. Mostly a gap to gap line drive hitter over his first two years in Westwood, Cardenas looked for more impact this spring and that came with a slightly elevated strikeout rate, which at 17.1% still wasn't terribly high but higher than you'd like for a guy known for his strong bat to ball skills. Additionally, the Los Angeles-area native came into the season primarily known as a glove-first player that showed everything you looked for behind the plate: soft hands, a reliable arm, agility, and overall feel for the position. However, evaluators didn't see that same defender show up in 2021, where some noted that he looked a bit lazy back there. Cardenas' success in pro ball will likely hinge on him pulling his work ethic back together, but even before this spring I personally saw him more as a backup catcher than a full time starter. He ended up ranking near the very back of my rankings, which went 243 deep. Slot value is $164,700, but I could see him going slightly over slot like Rucker.

9-279: C Patrick Winkel, Connecticut. My rank: #224.
Thirty picks later, the Twins grabbed another college catcher who saw his stock fall a bit in 2021. Pat Winkel, like Noah Cardenas, had a strong freshman season, slashing .318/.361/.486 in 49 games. After missing 2020 with Tommy John surgery, he was more or less the same player in 2021, slashing .284/.357/.525 with eleven home runs and a 30/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. The numbers were very solid, and Winkel does have a pretty broad base of skills. There's average power in his 6'1" frame while his smooth left handed swing helps him tap it consistently, and he shored up his approach a little bit in 2021 to cut down on his strikeouts. Behind the plate, the New Haven-area native shows a good glove and an improving arm, adding to his appeal. Some evaluators see the nice individual parts but wonder if he's physical enough to put it all together in pro ball, where he'll be going up against players with louder tools. Winkel struggled in a brief Cape Cod League stint back in 2019, and overall he seems to have done most of his damage at the plate by feasting on less advanced arms. I like this package a little bit better than Cardenas, while the Twins are hoping their strong track record with college catchers (Ryan Jeffers, Mitch Garver) can help them turn Winkel into a surprise impact guy. Slot value is $150,500.

11-339: RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech. My rank: #184.
If Brandon Birdsell had been signable, he likely would have gone in the top five to seven rounds. If he had been both healthy and signable, we could have been talking about a top 100 pick. Birdsell was one of the top junior college prospects in the country last year out of San Jacinto, but he decided to head to Texas Tech instead to prove that his gains were for real and bump his draft stock further. Early in the season, that seemed to be the case, as his stuff was as nasty as ever and he pitched to a 3.06 ERA and a 36/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.1 innings. However, the Willis, Texas native was shut down in mid-April with shoulder problems and hasn't pitched since. When he was on the mound, Birdsell showed a mid 90's fastball that was touching as high as 99, as well as a short, powerful upper 80's slider, a newer curveball, and a changeup. Though not pinpoint, his command was strong enough to make everything play up, and he held that power stuff deep into his starts. The 6'2" righty doesn't have the smoothest delivery, which is very upright and features a brief pause in the back of his short arm action, so he does face some relief concerns. Personally, I don't have enough information on his shoulder to make a judgement on the health (and shoulders can be very scary), but if he does come back healthy, I see a ton of upside here. I doubt he signs though, and instead I expect him to roll the dice on a healthy return to the Red Raider rotation in 2022.

2021 MLB Draft Review: San Diego Padres

Full list of draftees

The Padres stayed on brand with this draft, picking up two high school position players (both Maryland natives) with their first two picks. Some around the industry are a bit surprised by this draft, with first rounder Jackson Merrill being a bit of an unknown and second rounder James Wood (who earned $800K more) coming off a rough spring. Indeed, it will probably be boom or bust between these two kids, who could make AJ Preller look either really smart or foolhardy in a few years. After spending $4.4 million on those two kids, the Padres moved to the college ranks to save some money, picking up three consecutive pitchers who are already 22 or older, and really leaning on college players the rest of the way out. Kevin Kopps is of course the most interesting pick as the 24 year old Golden Spikes winner, while my favorite could end up being Ryan Bergert if he comes back healthy from Tommy John surgery.
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1-27: SS Jackson Merrill, Severna Park HS [MD]. My rank: #72.
This pick surprised many outside the industry, as Jackson Merrill was ranked #79 on MLB Pipeline and #102 on Baseball America. He was ranked #72 on my board and this will be a money saving pick, but don't think this was a reach. Merrill was a true pop-up prospect this spring, coming out for his senior season with a changed body and the results followed and then some. In addition to hitting for significantly more power than he has in the past, the Annapolis-area product also hit everything in sight, getting really nice leverage and loft from his now-6'2" frame and getting to that power consistently. He projects to stay on the right side of the infield with a strong arm, and given that the Padres are drafting him here in the first round, they probably think he'll be at least an average defender at shortstop. That remains to be seen, as does his ability to hit against higher-level pitching, as his bat is pretty untested against advanced competition. Merrill is committed to Kentucky but signed for $1.8 million, which was about $770,000 below the slot value of $2.57 million and about the value of the 41st pick.

2-62: OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #36.
I don't think I realized how tough of a spring James Wood had until after the draft, hence the high ranking. Wood, like Merrill, is from Maryland, but he transferred down to the IMG Academy in Florida to build his draft stock, which ultimately did not happen this spring. At his best over the summer, the 6'6" slugger showed massive raw power from the left side of the plate to go along with a patient approach that earned him comparisons to Zac Veen from last year's class. In fact, heading into the spring, many thought he had a chance to be drafted in the same range (Veen went ninth overall to the Rockies). The power was still there this spring, but Wood swung and missed significantly more often than scouts wanted to see, raising questions as to whether he could tap his power against pro pitching. He's a big guy with long legs and long arms and he starts with his hands low, something which wasn't an issue over the summer but could have contributed to making things difficult in 2021. Wood tweaked his setup at times as well, but to no avail. The Padres are buying into his massive upside here in the second round, and his presently above average speed also gives him an additional way to impact the game. He signed for $2.6 million, which was more than double the slot value of $1.1 million and in fact more than what Merrill signed for. $2.6 million would be roughly slot value for the 27th pick.

CBB-71: LHP Robert Gasser, Houston. My rank: #81.
Robert Gasser has had a meteoric rise to stardom after a winding road to get there. A Sacramento-area native, he began his career at New Mexico, moved on to Delta College back in California, then to the University of Houston, where he got knocked around in brief action in 2020. Things were different right from the start in 2021, however, after he followed strong starts against Texas Southern and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to match Tigers comp pick and Longhorn ace Ty Madden pitch for pitch in his third start. By the end of the season, Gasser had a 2.63 ERA and a strong 105/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.2 innings, including double digit strikeout performances against Texas State, Oklahoma, Memphis, and Tulane. He's a 6'1" lefty with a fastball that has ticked into the low 90's, touching 96, working in an above average slider that dives across the plate and a fading changeup. Gasser doesn't have pinpoint command but he locates his pitches well to both sides of the plate, and his low arm slot and crossfire action put some deception on his pitches. It's not the world's highest ceiling, but he has a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter, with a fallback option as a left handed reliever that can combine power stuff with a little bit of funk. Despite already having turned 22, he signed for full slot value at $884,200.

3-99: RHP Kevin Kopps, Arkansas. My rank: #188.
If you follow college baseball, you know all about Kevin Kopps. If you don't then you have a lot to catch up on. Kopps, like Gasser, has taken a long road to stardom, redshirting his freshman year in 2016 before serving as a solid if unspectacular reliever for Arkansas during his middle seasons (3.24 ERA, 86/30 K/BB in 86 IP). Those numbers were sandwiched around Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2018 season, then Kopps struggled to an 8.18 ERA in the shortened 2020 season. Returning in 2021 for his redshirt-redshirt senior season, the switch flipped on. The Houston-area native went 12-1 with a 0.90 ERA and a 131/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings, running a strikeout rate near 40% against some of the best competition in college baseball. Despite often throwing three or four innings per relief appearance, he didn't allow more than one run in any single game until his last one of the season, in which he made his very first start of the season against a red hot NC State team on short rest and allowed three over eight innings in what ended up being Arkansas' final game. The 2021 Golden Spikes winner harkens back to Mariano Rivera a bit with his tendency to work off one pitch – a cutter/slider hybrid that can move along the spectrum. Kopps has legitimate 80 grade feel for the pitch, showing the ability to tighten it up, allow it to break with more depth at other times, and locating it with precision to all four quadrants of the zone. Flip on any one of his appearances this season and you would see very disciplined SEC hitters flailing at it, rarely putting good swings on the pitch. The 6' righty also shows a low 90's fastball that functions as average and a below average curve and changeup, but the cutter/slider is his bread and butter. Despite throwing seventeen innings in just two weeks during the NCAA Tournament (and allowing just three runs while striking out nineteen), Kopps almost certainly profiles as a reliever in pro ball due to his lack of a second above average pitch, but he says he prefers the "chaos" of relief work anyways as opposed to getting into a routine as a starter. Already 24 years old, he was the second oldest player taken in the entire draft behind White Sox seventh rounder Theo Denlinger (25), but he likely won't pitch in the majors this year due to his heavy workload in Fayetteville. Once the Padres get him rested up and on their throwing program, though, he could be up pretty quickly in 2022. Slot value is $587,400, but I doubt his bonus will come close to that.

4-129: LHP Jackson Wolf, West Virginia. Unranked.
Another pick, another senior sign. Jackson Wolf, unlike Gasser or Kopps, was a well-known name for the 2020 class after posting a 1.05 ERA and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings in the shortened season, but he went undrafted and returned to Morgantown. This year, he did everything that was expected of him, posting a 3.03 ERA and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 innings, but it wasn't quite an Andrew Abbott-esque or Matt Mikulski-esque performance to increase his stock significantly. He's a 6'7" lefty, which will immediately grab your attention, and he fills up the strike zone with three pitches. Wolf's fastball sits around 90, a slight tick above where it was last year, and can scrape the mid 90's at its best, but it plays up due to his excellent extension that really does make a difference. His slider is slurvy and his changeup is average at best, but the three pitches work well off each other and he's proven durable so far. He throws strikes, but it's not pinpoint command – just enough to make it all work. If the Columbus-area native is to remain a starter, he'll need to tighten up his offspeed pitches, but he more likely profiles as a reliever who can run that fastball up another tick or two and hopefully sharpen that slider. Slot value is $438,700, but I don't think he gets close to that.

5-160: 2B Max Ferguson, Tennessee. My rank: #179.
It was a tough season for Max Ferguson. A high school classmate of Alabama and now Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (a year older), in addition to Florida star and likely high 2022 pick Hunter Barco (a year younger), he had an unremarkable freshman season but slashed .333/.462/.524 in the shortened 2020 season, leading to some optimism that he could be a high pick in 2021. Instead, the Jacksonville native ended up at .253/.378/.461 with twelve home runs and a 71/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games with a hitter-friendly home park, albeit against a tough SEC schedule. So what happened? Ferguson is a skinny kid at a listed 6'1", 180 pounds, and in that strong 2020 season he was noted as a strong contact hitter who might not hit for much impact in pro ball. So in 2021, he tried to show that impact by yanking home runs to the pull side and lifting the ball, and it worked to a degree with a strong .208 ISO (SLG - AVG), but it also came with an elevated 22.8% strikeout rate (up from 15% over his first two seasons). For a hitter who didn't quite sell the power, that's a tough look, and he'll likely need to go back to being hit over power in pro ball if he wants to succeed. The good news is Ferguson is a great athlete who shows strong bat to ball skills and barrel control when he's not trying to do too much, and with proper development he should be able to work his way back towards being a high on-base guy who can steal you a few bags (he has 28 in 114 career games at Tennessee). He fits at second base due to a below average arm, but could have the speed to handle center field. To me, it's a utility profile. He signed for full slot value at $324,100.

6-190: RHP Ryan Bergert, West Virginia. Unranked.
Four players were drafted out of West Virginia this year, and all four were pitchers going to NL West rivals – I didn't mention them in the Dodgers writeup, but Madison Jeffrey and Adam Tulloch went in the 15th and 17th rounds, respectively, to Los Angeles, while San Diego grabbed Jackson Wolf in the fourth and Ryan Bergert here in the sixth. I tabbed Bergert as a sleeper heading into the season, but unfortunately, he blew out his elbow and didn't pitch at all. Over his first two years in Morgantown, though, he was phenomenal – 2.30 ERA, 68/19 K/BB in 58.2 innings. His fastball sits in the low 90's, getting up to 94-95 at best, and playing up due to high spin rates. He also shows an inconsistent curveball that doesn't always have the finish he would like, but which should be an above average pitch with a bit more development, as well as an average slider. The 6'1" righty doesn't have much of a changeup this point, which will be a point of development in pro ball, and his command is average. He'll have to work his way back first, but once healthy, some tweaks here and there could make him a very solid rotation option. It's always hard to peg injured pitchers' signing bonus demands, and slot value sits at $251,100 here.

18-550: LHP Gage Jump, JSerra Catholic HS [CA]. My rank: #20.
With James Wood signing for $1.5 million above slot value, it's hard to see Gage Jump signing here, especially when he seemed dead set on heading to UCLA anyways. Jump, in my opinion, was the second best high school pitcher in the class behind only Jackson Jobe, who went third overall to the Tigers. He's an undersized lefty at 5'11", sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and getting up to 94-95. That fastball plays way up because he gets great extension, a low release, and high spin rates from that smaller frame, putting exceptional ride on the ball and missing plenty of bats. His top to bottom curveball plays extremely well off his fastball, and he adds an above average slider as well. Jump is a competitor that fills up the strike zone consistently, earning comps to a left handed Jack Leiter, and he could find himself in a similar position after three years in Westwood. He attended high school not far from San Diego, just an hour or so north of PETCO in San Juan Capistrano.

20-610: RHP Chase Burns, Beech HS [TN]. My rank: #84.
This is another one that almost certainly won't sign. Chase Burns is one of the hardest throwers in the prep class, touching triple digits with his fastball and usually sitting in the mid 90's, and it gets exceptional spin and ride (like Jump, but faster) that make it a plus-plus pitch when it's located. Burns also adds an inconsistent curve that flashes plus 12-6 movement at its best, and his slider is a bit shorter but flashes plus as well with late bite. His changeup is inconsistent as well, but has its moments. The problem here is that his delivery is somewhat rigid, which combined with the poor history of hard throwing high schoolers, makes it a very scary profile. I would like to see the Nashville-area native head to Tennessee, which it looks like is going to happen, to prove his durability as a starting pitcher before jumping on board. If he does hold up over three years in Knoxville, we're looking at a huge ceiling for the 6'4" righty.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Tampa Bay Rays

Full list of draftees

The Rays always draft well. Maybe it's not always apparent right after the draft, but when we look back five and ten years later, they always draft well (okay, maybe Tim Beckham didn't work out). I liked what they did this year, starting off with six consecutive position players, the first four of which were all infielders, then going with pitching almost the entire rest of the way. Which makes sense, because the Rays are known to find random pitchers that nobody has heard of and turn them into studs, much like the Dodgers and Indians. I'm really interested in all of their picks, but perhaps my favorite was the big, live armed Austin Vernon in the tenth round.
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1-28: SS Carson Williams, Torrey Pines HS [CA]. My rank: #39.
The Rays started things off by drafting one of the more malleable talents in the class, shortstop Carson Williams. He was a riser this spring and while he doesn't have one single standout tool aside from his arm, he does a lot of things well and all of his tools carry projection, giving the Rays a great opportunity to help him grow into his game. He's a somewhat lanky kid at 6'2", showing a smooth right handed swing that finds the barrel regularly and sprays the ball around the field. Though he lacks present strength, his body type and ability to barrel up the baseball should enable him to grow into at least average power, if not above average, and he did hit some impressive home runs this spring. On defense, he's a smooth shortstop with a cannon for a right arm, and if he gets a little bit more consistent with his glovework, he could be a plus overall defender at the position. The San Diego native is young for the class and just turned 18 shortly before the draft, giving the Rays even more time to develop his game, and he could grow into a star down the line. He's committed to California but in the first round, I doubt he requires a large overslot bonus given the slot value of $2.49 million.

CBA-34: 2B Cooper Kinney, Baylor HS [TN]. My rank: #70.
With the way they develop players, giving the Rays an extra pick in the competitive balance round is almost unfair, but then again they have no money so this is how they stay competitive. Cooper Kinney can come in and play across the bag from Carson Williams, though he does bring a bit of a different game. While Williams has a very well-rounded game, Kinney is very much a bat-first prospect with clear strengths and weaknesses. First and foremost, he's a hitter. The Chattanooga product brings a smooth left handed swing that gets the barrel long through the zone, and he deployed it by barreling up virtually everything he saw in 2021. There's power in his 6'3" frame that should especially start to show up once he gets a little stronger, and with his innate hittability, he should tap it very consistently as it emerges. Kinney is not quite as athletic as Williams, though, and is probably limited to second base at best in pro ball if not further down the defensive spectrum. He doesn't run well nor does he have a great arm, so you're banking on the bat. That bat is pretty special though, and he could be the rare fast-moving high school hitter. Committed to South Carolina, I doubt it will take more than the $2.15 million slot value to redirect him south.

2-63: 1B Kyle Manzardo, Washington State. My rank: #98.
The Rays continued filling out their infield in the second round, and like Kinney, Kyle Manzardo is definitely bat-first. After he ripped .435/.500/.694 (yep) in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, I tabbed Manzardo as a bit of a sleeper heading into the 2021 season, and he made good on that by slashing .365/.437/.640 with eleven home runs and a 29/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games. The northern Idaho native, like Kinney, is the definition of a pro hitter in that he manages the strike zone very well and rarely strikes out, the latter of which you don't see often in a power bat. In another parallel to Kinney, he gets the barrel long through the zone from the left side, enabling him to easily go the other way with authority when he's not turning on baseballs. He reminds me a bit of Red Sox prospect Triston Casas, albeit with a better hit tool and about a grade less raw power. Manzardo is not a gifted defender and will be an average first baseman at best, with DH a real possibility. Regardless, his bat will carry him, and he has a ceiling of 20-25 home runs a year with high on-base percentages in addition to a high floor. Slot value is $1.08 million and I don't think he'll need all of it to sign.

3-100: SS Ryan Spikes, Parkview HS [GA]. My rank: #93.
Sticking in the infield, Tampa Bay went out and grabbed another shortstop in Parkview's Ryan Spikes. He was a favorite of area scouts that didn't quite get as much national attention as he perhaps deserved, but a strong finish to his spring season and a good showing at the draft combine upped his stock in the end. Undersized at a stocky 5'9", he's a tough sell for those who want their prospects to "look the part," but like so many others in this Rays draft class, he can flat out hit. The Lilburn, Georgia product has consistently gotten better and better with his right handed swing, finding the barrel more and more against good pitching out there in the Atlanta metro. And even though he's small, finding the barrel means very loud contact and some home run power as he really drives the ball with authority. Spikes is consistently getting better on defense as well, convincing more and more scouts every day that he has the ability to stick at shortstop with a strong arm and stronger instincts. As a high baseball IQ type with great feel for the game and an upward trajectory, he certainly fits the mold of a sleeper, especially once he gets into the Rays' extremely deep farm system. Spikes is committed to Tennessee and I'm not sure where his bonus demands will fall with regards to the $581,600 slot value.

4-130: OF Dru Baker, Texas Tech. Unranked.
We're five picks in and we're still on the infield, though Dru Baker probably won't stick at his listed position of third base. He's a career .324/.400/.469 hitter at Texas Tech and had his best year yet in 2021, slashing .343/.406/.484 with four home runs and a 42/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games, also stealing eighteen bases in twenty attempts. The Houston-area native is another undersized guy at 5'11", using his quick bat to spray line drives around the field consistently and against good pitching. From there, his plus speed enables him to stretch for extra bases and steal once on, and it will also help him on defense if he's forced to move to the outfield. That defensive position is up in the air right now, as he hasn't shown the most consistent infield glove and hasn't gotten consistent innings at any one position anyways, bouncing around the field to play wherever Texas Tech needed him. Once he settles in at one spot, he should grow into either an average second or third baseman or an above average outfielder. Because of his lack of power, it's hard to project Baker as a regular, but he could be a valuable bench piece especially on a team like the Rays that loves to get creative. Slot value is $434,300, and I doubt he'll require that much to sign.

8-251: LHP Patrick Wicklander, Arkansas. My rank: #212.
In the eighth round, the Rays got a fun story and a good pitcher in Patrick Wicklander. The San Jose native spent his first two seasons in Fayetteville riding ups and downs as he tried to figure out who he was as a pitcher, then found out during the pandemic that he was a type one diabetic. Once he got that all straightened out, he returned in 2021 with his most consistent season to date, posting a 2.09 ERA and an 85/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.2 innings against an extremely tough schedule. Wicklander attacks hitters primarily with a two pitch mix, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding an average slider that lacks the power to be a true out pitch. He also throws a fringy curveball and a changeup, but doesn't use them as much. Everything in the 6'1" lefty's arsenal plays up because he hides the ball well in his delivery and locates his pitches to both sides of the plate, giving him some upside as a back-end starter if he can refine either his curve or changeup. Regardless, he still has a nice floor as a lefty reliever who can be counted on to throw strikes and create tough at bats for opponents, one who could move relatively quickly if the Rays went that route. Slot value is $163,400, which sounds about right.

9-281: LHP Alex Ayala Jr., Florida Southwestern State. Unranked.
The Rays didn't have any true hometown picks, but I try to highlight at least one semi-local guy in each draft and we'll go with Florida Southwestern State's Alex Ayala Jr., who grew up in Doral near Miami and attended JUCO in Fort Myers. He's a 6'1" lefty with a running low 90's fastball, a slider, and a changeup, doing a pretty good job of locating at least the fastball and the changeup. As a true freshman this year at Florida Southwestern State, he put up a 3.53 ERA and an 84/32 strikeout to walk ratio across 63.2 innings, which isn't half bad for a 19 year old going up against some of the best junior college competition in the country. The Rays probably like what he can do with that fastball and are hoping to bring his secondaries even further along, but as a young arm he can really develop in a lot of directions. Slot value is $150,100, and I'm not sure what his signing bonus demands will be.

10-311: RHP Austin Vernon, North Carolina Central. My rank: #169.
I really liked this pick. Austin Vernon is a massive, 6'8", 265 pound righty that might have created the toughest at bats in Raleigh-Durham this year, even with the presence of UNC and Duke. Vernon comes in with a mid 90's fastball that tops out at 98, also adding a pair of power breaking balls in a slider and a curveball. Add the power stuff and size to a high effort delivery and long hair flying everywhere, and it's not easy to stand in the box against him. The Raleigh native can struggle to throw strikes at times, but filled up the zone pretty well in 2021 and put up a 2.55 ERA and a 109/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings, albeit against a weaker schedule. And while the delivery still remains high effort, he's been cleaning it up a bit and won't require a ton of work in pro ball. It's probably a relief profile, but as with Wicklander (and for different reasons), there is starter upside. Slot value is $142,300 and as a 22 year old at a school that's shuttering its baseball program, he won't have much leverage.

11-341: RHP Sean Mullen, UCLA. Unranked.
Sean Mullen is another fun one for the Rays. After pitching sparingly over his first two seasons (albeit to a 0.56 ERA over 16 innings), he got in a full season of work for UCLA in 2021 and responded with a 3.39 ERA and an 89/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 innings. The 6'1" righty sits around 90 with his fastball as a starter, usually on the higher end, and has touched 95-96 in short stints. He adds a relatively inconsistent slider that flashes above average, and he can also work it into a cutter to give hitters a different look. To this point, his changeup isn't much of a factor. He has a springy delivery in which he drives hard off his back leg, and his command improved to fringe-average in 2021. There might be a little bit of projection remaining for the Bakersfield native, and for that reason, he (like Wicklander and Vernon) does have a chance to remain a starter with some progress in a couple of areas. If not, he should be a useful reliever that I'm sure the Rays will turn into a stud.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

Full list of draftees

The Dodgers went for a pitching-heavy class here, taking arms with seventeen of nineteen picks and not even drafting a position player until the sixteenth round. They started it off with two high school arms with massive upside, the kind that an excellent player develop pipeline like theirs can turn into aces. Behind them, they picked up a mix of quite a few different types of arms, all of whom have a chance to become legitimate impact prospects in this system. It's easy to like what the Dodgers do when you know they're going to maximize the talent of the guys they brought in. If I had to pick one favorite pick, it would be third rounder Peter Heubeck.
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1-29: LHP Maddux Bruns, UMS-Wright HS [AL]. My rank: #88.
By looking at the draft ranking, you might think I don't like this pick. And honestly I don't love it, but you have to think about the team drafting the player as well as who the player is. The Dodgers, frankly, have some of the best player development in the league, and Maddux Bruns' raw talent fits right into this system. Bruns has some of the best raw stuff in the class, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball that has touched as high as 98 in addition to a hammer of a curveball a distinct slider, and a changeup. It all comes from a big 6'2" frame and seems to get a little extra oomph on it as he works aggressively downhill with his entire body. Named for Greg Maddux, Bruns differs from his namesake in that his control and command are very much a work in progress. He had times over the summer where he lost complete control of the strike zone, and while he looked better during his spring season in Mobile, he's still firmly below average in that regard. The lefty is also old for a high schooler, having turned 19 in June, theoretically giving him less time to develop that finer feel for pitching. That's why he's a perfect fit for the Dodgers, who consistently bring out the absolute best in their players and could turn him into a monster. Though he's committed to defending champion Mississippi State, it looks like the Dodgers got him early enough in the draft that the $2.42 million slot value should be plenty and he could even go a bit below slot.

3-101: RHP Peter Heubeck, Gilman HS [MD]. My rank: #54.
If I were a Dodger fan, I would be thrilled with this pick. Peter Heubeck had legitimate top fifty upside, and if he were still available at this point in the draft, you'd have thought he'd be headed to school. The Dodgers snagged him anyways and will likely pay him a hefty bonus, and when you pair him with Maddux Bruns, the rest of the NL West should be scared. Heubeck is a 6'3" righty that comfortably sits in the low 90's with his fastball for now, topping out around 95, but with plenty of room to add more velocity. He adds a downer curveball that has gotten more consistent this spring, flashing plus at times, and has shown feel for a changeup as well. Over the summer, he struggled to repeat his delivery at times and that led to inconsistent command. However, he quieted it down a bit this year and did a better job of filling up the strike zone, and the more consistent delivery helped his stuff play up as well. One of Heubeck's best aspects is his ability to get down the mound and release the ball out in front, putting nice ride and high spin rates on his pitches. There's top of the rotation upside here, though like Bruns, he's old for the class and will turn 19 shortly after I publish this article. The Baltimore native is committed to Wake Forest and will likely require a signing bonus well above the $577,000 slot value.

4-131: RHP Nick Nastrini, UCLA. My rank: #219.
Staying right in their backyard, the Dodgers headed over to Westwood to make their next pick. Nick Nastrini came into the season with the chance to pitch his way into the top two rounds, but instead saw his command completely implode and finished with a 6.89 ERA and a 48/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings for UCLA. Heading into the season, he was a guy who did a lot of things well and was waiting to put it all together, especially considering he was finally on the mound consistently after a couple of years of battling thoracic outlet syndrome and a pandemic shutdown. His fastball ticked into the low to mid 90's and reached as high as 98, while he also showed the high spin curveball, slider, and above average changeup that he's always had. However, after showing average command in his first two years at UCLA, Nastrini simply could not find the zone in 2021 and walked nearly a quarter of the hitters he faced. The command spiraled downward as the season progressed, too – after walking only ten batters in his first 17.2 innings, he walked fifteen over his next ten innings and thirteen over his final 3.2. At that point, you have to think it's in his head more than anything else. When he's on, you have a well-built, 6'3" righthander with a full arsenal, a history of throwing strikes, and a relatively clean delivery (albeit with a bit of a late arm), so there's definitely starter upside here, but he's a reclamation project for the Dodgers' development staff. Slot value here is $430,800, but I expect the San Diego native to sign for less.

5-162: RHP Ben Casparius, Connecticut. My rank: #174.
Ben Casparius is a pretty different arm from Nick Nastrini. After beginning his career at UNC, he transferred back home to Connecticut in 2020 and after sitting out the pandemic-shortened season, he burst onto the scene as UConn's ace. In fifteen starts, the Westport, Connecticut native put up a 4.03 ERA and a 127/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings, though that ERA actually sat at 3.07 until his final start of the season in which he allowed eleven earned runs to a white hot Notre Dame offense. Casparius doesn't have any plus pitches, but he gets it done with three average to above average offerings in a low 90's fastball, a slider, and an above average changeup that functions as his bread and butter. A dogged competitor, his command may be average in a vacuum, but it plays up due to his willingness to attack the strike zone and go after hitters, and he's been noted as a hard worker off the field as well. Almost 22 and a half, the 6' righty might not come with the upside of Bruns or Heubeck, but he should work as a bit of a balance for this draft class and work his way up as a back-end starter. Slot value is $318,200, but I don't expect him to need that much to sign.

6-192: RHP Emmet Sheehan, Boston College. Unranked.
Emmet Sheehan was a breakout performer for Boston College this spring, putting up a 4.23 ERA and a 106/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.2 innings. He has a pretty average profile on the surface, but again, it's an interesting one that a team like the Dodgers would love to mold. Hailing from the same region of southwestern Connecticut as Ben Casparius, Sheehan brings a low 90's fastball that was ticking into the mid 90's more often as the season went on, adding in a curveball and changeup that are average for now. However, there's a lot the Dodgers can do here. His fastball rides while his changeup fades, and while his curveball lacks power, it has plenty of depth when he snaps it right. A tweak here and a tweak there, and you have a very interesting starting pitching prospect. The 6'5" righty needs to get more consistent with his changeup, add a little power to that curve, and tighten up his command just a little bit to help tunnel his pitches better, all very doable things for the Los Angeles development pipeline. This will be a fun sleeper to follow. Slot value is $247,000 and I doubt he'll require more than that to sign.

11-342: LHP Justin Wrobleski, Oklahoma State. Unranked.
To start off day three, the Dodgers opted for an injured arm in Justin Wrobleski, who went down with Tommy John surgery in April. Wrobleski began his career at Clemson, transferred to the State College of Florida, then on to Oklahoma State for his junior year. His brief time there was up and down, as he posted a 4.20 ERA and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.2 innings, though it should be noted that four of those walks came in his final inning before the injury. He's a 6'1" lefty with a low 90's fastball that gets up to about 95, while his best pitch is an above average slider that flashes legitimate plus from the left side. Coming from a closed off delivery, he gets a nice combination of sweep and depth on the pitch and it can be deadly against both lefties and righties. He also throws an average changeup. Command has come and gone for the Atlanta-area native, and ultimately he may not profile as more than a reliever, but I noted him as an interesting sleeper coming into the season and it will be interesting to see what happens once he gets some consistent innings in the Dodgers system, if he's signable. Wrobleski is also young for the class and didn't turn 21 until the day after the draft, which may make him less signable, so we'll see.

12-372: LHP Ronan Kopp, South Mountain JC [AZ]. Unranked.
Now this is a player development project if there ever was one. Ronan Kopp is a massive, 6'7", 250 pound lefty out of Arizona. He grew up in Scottsdale and was originally set to head due south to Arizona State, but instead of heading to Tempe, he switched his commitment to South Mountain JC just a bit to the southwest in Phoenix proper. There, he was inconsistent, with a 2.84 ERA and a 38/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. Kopp generates easy, easy velocity with his massive frame, running his fastball into the upper 90's at times without expending much effort or working his kinetic chain as effectively as he might be able to with more coaching. There's also a breaking ball that has looked good at times, but he has never found any consistency with it whatsoever. Throw in well below average command and a delivery that needs to be cleaned up considerably, and you have a lot of work to do. But Kopp's combination of size, strength, and handedness is hard to find, and the Dodgers are hoping to strike gold and bring it all out of him. Working in Kopp's favor is age, as he's very young for his class and is actually a little bit younger than Bruns and Heubeck. Signability is always a question with teenagers in the twelfth round, but considering he switched his commitment from Arizona State to South Mountain in part to be eligible this year, you have to think there's a good chance he is signable.