First five rounds: Alek Manoah (1-11), Kendall Williams (2-52), Dasan Brown (3-88), Will Robertson (4-117), Tanner Morris (5-147)
Also notable: Cameron Eden (6-177), LJ Talley (7-207), Philip Clarke (9-267)
After grabbing two premium arms in Alek Manoah and Kendall Williams in the first two rounds, the Blue Jays switched to an offensive focus on Day Two and spent all eight picks on position players, including five infielders. There's not a ton of upside outside those first three or four rounds, as they opted mostly for utility guys and other bench pieces, but all of those guys have a track record of hitting and should assimilate smoothly to pro ball as a group. For good measure, they also popped a hometown product in Ontario native Dasan Brown in the third round.
1-11: RHP Alek Manoah (West Virginia, my rank: 15)
There's big power arms, then there's Alek Manoah. The 6'6", 260 pound righty put it all together in 2019 after struggling with inconsistency as an underclassman, posting a 2.08 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 144/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 108.1 innings for the Mountaineers. Manoah was also very effective in the elite Cape Cod League last summer, posting a 2.70 ERA and a 48/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings against the top competition in college baseball. The Homestead, Florida native uses his huge frame to pump mid 90's fastballs fairly easily, and he can run it up into the upper 90's if he needs to. While the velocity on his fastball is his main weapon, he also deploys a very good slider that took a step forward in 2019, and his changeup, once an afterthought, has improved to where it, too, can be an asset. Manoah also took a step forward with his command this year, and what was once a weak spot is now average or slightly above. Because he can fill the strike zone with an easy plus fastball and add a pair of good secondaries, he's a premium arm, but there is some risk here. Manoah has a bit of a cross-body delivery could make him less deceptive against left handed hitters. There's also the question of his secondaries, which are much better than last year but neither of which can be classified as a true strikeout pitch. Overall, if the Blue Jays can help Manoah get a little sharper there and maintain his command, he has top of the rotation potential, but a big fastball alone won't get you above the middle of the rotation and he could end up as a #3 or #4 guy if his command or secondaries take a step back. Manoah signed for full slot at $4.55 million.
2-52: RHP Kendall Williams (IMG Academy [FL], my rank: 44)
Make that two 6'6" righties at the top of the draft for the Jays. Kendall Williams pitched for the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida (near Tampa), but he is originally from the Memphis area. Williams is actually one of my favorite high school pitchers in this part of the draft due to his combination of projectability and current ability. He uses a high release point to get good angle on the ball and throw a low 90's fastball, also adding a good curveball, a decent slider, and a solid changeup. The plane he's able to get on the ball helps his pitches play up, and the fact that he can command four pitches at this age and at that height speaks of his aptitude for pitching. At 6'6", he has room to add more weight and velocity, and if he can sharpen that slider a little, he'll have four weapons at his disposal. Obviously, he has a lot of work to do as a high school pitcher who will turn 19 in August, but Williams has high upside as a top of the rotation starter and carries slightly less risk than some high school pitchers. He signed away from Vanderbilt for $1.55 million, which was $150,000 above slot.
3-88: OF Dasan Brown (Abbey Park HS [ON], my rank: 121)
Dasan Brown grew up a Blue Jays fan in Oakville, Ontario, a suburb of Toronto, so seeing him get drafted to his hometown team here is pretty cool. He's an exceptional athlete whose plus speed is his top tool, and he uses that speed to be a very good center fielder as well as a threat on the bases. However, his bat will need a lot of work. Brown currently employs a fairly choppy swing that leads to a lot of ground balls and soft contact, which he can beat out for infield singles for now but which will need to change against better defenses. He does have solid bat speed, so if the Blue Jays can successfully overhaul his swing, the 5'11" speedster could develop some gap power and become a doubles and triples machine. For now, though, he doesn't show much feel for hitting and will be a project if the Jays want to develop him into a leadoff hitter eventually. They had mixed results with Anthony Alford the last time they tried this with a similar player. On the plus side, Brown is very young and won't turn 18 until September, making him more than a year younger than Williams. Brown signed away from a Texas A&M commitment for $800,000, which was $121,400 above slot.
4-117: OF Will Robertson (Creighton, my rank: 88)
Will Robertson rounds out the Blue Jays draft class after they took a college pitcher, a high school pitcher, and a high school hitter, as gives them the fourth major demographic as a college hitter. Robertson grew up in the small town of Westphalia, Missouri, which is near Jefferson City in the middle of the state, and he was a relative unknown and ended up at Creighton. There he turned himself into an impact hitter, slashing .333/.412/.641 as a sophomore before hopping over to the Cape Cod League and slashing .300/.380/.435 with four home runs and a 28/16 strikeout to walk ratio. Expectations were high coming into his junior season, though he wasn't quite as dominant a force as he was his sophomore season and he finished with a .311/.408/.599 line, 15 home runs, and a 39/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games while playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly park. Robertson can hit for both contact and for power, and he has proven that not only at Creighton but on the Cape as well, so he has a good chance to hit in pro ball. However, his aggressive approach at the plate limits his walks, and because he's only a so-so defender that will be just adequate in left field, his bat will have to carry him. He has enough in that bat to potentially succeed as is with 20-25 home run potential and middling on-base percentages, but getting more patient and drawing more walks would make him a more well rounded hitter as well as help him solve the advanced pitching he'll face in pro ball. Robertson signed for $422,500, which was $70,200 below slot, and he's slashing .186/.305/.243 with 14 strikeouts to nine walks through his first 19 games at short season Vancouver.
5-147: SS Tanner Morris (Virginia, my rank: 107)
It was a down year for the Virginia Cavaliers, and as a result, 2019 marked the first time since 2009 that UVA had no players selected in the first four rounds. At pick 147 in the fifth round, Morris was the first Cavalier drafted, and he'll give the Blue Jays a potential utility infielder with some offensive upside. He's just a sophomore but because he turned 21 in September and is the age of a college junior, he's eligible this year. The Charlottesville native has a great track record of hitting, as he slashed .331/.404/.449 with a pair of home runs and a 23/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games on the Cape before a big sophomore season where he hit .345/.452/.507 with five home runs and a 38/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at UVA. Given all that production in multiple high level leagues, there are no questions about Morris' hit tool, but the rest of his game is fairly fringy. He has a quick bat but his approach is more slap-heavy and catered towards line drives, so the Blue Jays' goal may be to turn all his doubles into home runs by adding more lift to his swing. He's a so-so defender that should be able to stick at second base and be adequate there, though he could end up in left field. Overall, Morris projects as a bat-first utility guy, but if he can add a little pop, it could help him earn a starting role when combined with his high on-base percentages fueled by strong plate discipline. Morris signed for $397,500, which was $30,600 above slot, and he's slashing .211/.371/.296 with a home run and a 14/17 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games with Vancouver.
6-177: SS Cameron Eden (California, unranked)
Cameron Eden actually isn't too dissimilar a player to Tanner Morris, though Eden's plate discipline doesn't quite match up with Morris'. The Yuba City, California native had a rough sophomore season at Cal and hit just .247/.306/.292, but he turned it around as a junior and bumped that line up to .365/.435/.555 with eight home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 45/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games. Eden has some pop, some contact ability, and some speed, but his overall offensive game at this point is just a bit too light if he ever wants to start at the major league level. He struck out in 19.2% of his plate appearances and walked in 9.4%, so the so-so plate discipline will have to take a step forward in pro ball if he wants to succeed. Given that he has solid tools across the board, that may be the only thing holding him back, but for now he profiles as a utility man. He's average defensively and should be able to handle shortstop in a reserve role, though probably not as a starter, and his speed helps him be a good defensive outfielder. Eden signed for $222,500, which was $57,000 below slot, and he's slashing .234/.330/.260 with an 18/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 games at Vancouver.
7-207: 2B LJ Talley (Georgia, unranked)
Aside from being a year older, LJ Talley is actually a fairly similar player to both Cameron Eden and Tanner Morris. The South Georgia native from the small town of Folkston had a big senior year for the Bulldogs, slashing .332/.435/.489 with eight home runs and a 36/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. The senior has quick hands and produces some power, though his plate discipline took a step forward this year and he finished with a low 12.6% strikeout rate and a high 14% walk rate. He's also a very competent defender, one who may not stick at shortstop but who could be well above average at second base. Talley's kind of a sleeper as a senior sign who turned 22 in May, but I like him better than Eden and think he has a very good shot to hit his way up as a utility infielder. Talley signed for $22,500, which was $196,000 below slot, and he's slashing .146/.268/.229 with a home run and a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games at Class A Lansing.
9-267: C Philip Clarke (Vanderbilt, unranked)
I was a fan of Philip Clarke coming out of a Nashville high school and ranked him #122 on my 2017 list, but his high price tag led him to Vanderbilt, where he has had mixed results. As a draft-eligible sophomore this year, he slashed .308/.388/.480 with nine home runs and a 43/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games, helping lead the Commodores to the National Championship as the starting catcher. He's bat-first for sure, as he uses his clean swing to produce plenty of quality contact, and overall he projects for both average contact and power, which comes out to about 15-20 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages. His defense will decide his future role, as he's steadily improving behind the plate but still grades out as so-so. If he can continue to improve and make himself an average defender, he will be a starting catcher in the majors, something that's hard to come by. However, if his defense remains fringy like it currently is, he may be forced to move off of catcher, in which case he would be a below average left fielder or first baseman at 5'11", as his bat doesn't profile as quite strong enough to justify the defensive value. Hopefully he can remain behind the plate and add to the Blue Jays' deep crop of young catchers led by Danny Jansen. He signed for $500,000, which was more like fourth round money and $345,100 above slot, and he picked up five hits in eleven at bats (including two home runs) over his first two games with Vancouver.
Showing posts with label Will Robertson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Will Robertson. Show all posts
Monday, July 8, 2019
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: College Outfielders
There are two clear headliners in this year's college outfield class, though aside from Kameron Misner, there probably won't be any others picked until the middle of the second round or later. Aside from the lack of a middle tier of late first round/comp round/early second round guys, there is a lot to like here, and once you get towards the end of day one/start of day two, there are quite a few guys who could make a difference in a variety of ways.
Tier I: JJ Bleday, Hunter Bishop
The two top outfielders in the class arrived here with huge junior seasons in which they tremendously improved their stock. Vanderbilt's JJ Bleday was seen as more likely to go in the back half of the first round after he slashed .368/.494/.511 with four home runs and a 23/31 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2018, with scouts pleased by his plate discipline but looking for more power. He provided it and more this year, slashing .346/.461/.748 with 25 home runs and a 45/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games, showing few if any holes in his offensive game with power, contact, and plate discipline in spades. He also slashed .311/.374/.500 on the Cape and has slashed .304/.438/.687 in SEC play, so there is little worry that he'll produce at the next level. With a strong arm but not much foot speed, he'll be a serviceable right fielder with most of his value tied to his bat, which projects to have middle of the order impact. He'll get drafted somewhere between the third and sixth picks. Across the country, Arizona State's Hunter Bishop has improved his stock more than perhaps any player this season, jumping from a day two pick to the top half of the first round. After slashing .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore for the Sun Devils, he busted out with 22 home runs, a .356/.482/.792 slash line, and a 56/42 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games as a junior, showing some of the best raw power in the class along the way. Despite adding a ton of power, Bishop cut his strikeout rate by a quarter and bumped up his walk rate by more than 50%, which bodes well for his ability to continue to tap that power at the next level. His strikeout rate is still a little bit high (22.3%) and he has come down to Earth a bit in Pac-12 play (.273/.403/.555), so he's safely behind Bleday in my book, he's easily the better defender and could stay in center field. He likely cracks the top ten picks and there have been a lot of rumors about the Rangers taking him eighth overall, though I believe I may be the low guy on him.
Tier II: Kameron Misner
Don't take Misner's spot by himself here to mean anything about him specifically; there really are no other college outfielders who are close to his skill level, with Bleday and Bishop being much better and the Tier III guys being well behind him. Missouri's Kameron Misner could have pushed his way into Tier I with a good run through SEC play, but his overall .287/.443/.485 line with ten home runs and a 56/54 strikeout to walk ratio includes just a .222/.353/.315 line against advanced SEC pitching. That makes Misner a bit of a conundrum, as he missed most of SEC play as well as summer ball last season with a broken foot. He's a great athlete with power, speed, and a strong arm, and he hit well last year (.360/.497/.576) in his 34 games as a sophomore, mostly against non-SEC pitching. Misner's great outfield defense will buy his bat plenty of time, and his power and high walk rate are definitely there, but he's just unproven against higher level pitching and the holes in his swing might get exposed. He has the ceiling of a #5 hitter with a strong glove and arm, but he comes with more risk than is usual for players of his profile. He looks to be drafted in the back half of the first round.
Tier III: Matt Wallner, Kyle Stowers, Will Robertson, Zach Watson, Dominic Fletcher
While Misner is alone in that second tier, there are plenty of bats in the third tier and they're all a little different. Matt Wallner, a two-way player out of Southern Miss, has had an up and down season after slashing .351/.474/.618 with 16 home runs and a 53/48 strikeout to walk ratio last year. This year, he's slashing .315/.431/.665 with 19 home runs and a 43/40 strikeout to walk ratio through 53 games, the only real differences between this year and last year being less consistency, a bit more power, and a lower batting average on balls in play. He's 6'5" and his left handed swing is geared more for power than for contact, which has worked against C-USA pitching but gave him so-so results in the Cape Cod League (.250/.343/.417, 24/8 K/BB). He's far from a guarantee to hit at the next level, but he has shown enough game power and plate discipline to warrant a second round selection and he could pop 30 home runs annually in the majors. Some teams were also looking at him as a potential reliever, but arm issues have kept him from pitching this season and he has stated that he prefers to hit. That arm does play well in the outfield, giving him some defensive value in right field. Over at Stanford, Kyle Stowers has had an interesting run. In 2018, Stowers slashed .286/.383/.512 with ten home runs and a 49/30 strikeout to walk ratio, then he hit six home runs and slashed .326/.361/.565 on the Cape over the summer. This year seems like more of the same with seven home runs and a .293/.365/.506 line, but his 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio means means that he cut his strikeout rate in half. That's especially interesting given that the length in his swing has led to swing and miss concerns. It's hard to say what Stowers' ultimate projection is, because he looks like more of a fourth outfielder with his solid power but potentially low on-base percentages, but the production on the Cape and this year's reduced strikeout rate could mean that he'll get to his power more often than we might think. He looks like a third rounder, but he could sneak into the back of the second. Creighton's Will Robertson is also hard to project, with his eleven home runs, .301/.390/.554 slash line, and 37/19 strikeout to walk ratio making for another solid season in Omaha. He has left handed power and it played up on the Cape (4 HR, .300/.380/.435), making evaluators hopeful that his lack of tough competition in the Big East will be less of an issue. He could be a middle of the order hitter if everything plays up as hoped, though his aggressive approach against mediocre Big East pitching does give him some risk. He also doesn't have much defensive value as a decent left fielder, so the pressure will be on his bat. He looks like a third rounder. Zach Watson is a very well known name in the SEC, as he has started for LSU for three years now and has produced every season. This year has been more of the same, as he slashed .317/.367/.472 with five home runs and a 38/14 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 50 games. He was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year and could have been a second or third round pick after slashing a nearly identical .308/.366/.479, but he wanted to return to Baton Rouge and he's back in roughly the same spot this year. He has a line drive bat and hits the ball very hard for someone listed at just 165 pounds, but his aggressive approach limits his walks and his line drive swing limits his power. Offensively, he has the tools to work with to become a solid piece (though he'll also turn 22 a few weeks after the draft), but his real value is on defense, where he is a very good center fielder and can track down almost any ball hit in his direction. Because he hasn't made any progress over last year's numbers, he looks like a third round pick. Arkansas's Dominic Fletcher is a fairly similar player to Watson, slashing .320/.383/.551 with ten home runs and a 48/22 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games this season. Fletcher, like Watson, makes plenty of contact against SEC pitching and has a long track record of starting for his team, though he's also listed at 5'9" and that limits his overall offensive outlook. He has a strong glove, though not quite to the same level as Watson's, and that buys his bat some slack, and he's also considered to have a strong feel for the game that will help him maximize his tools. Improving his plate discipline should be a good start, and he also looks like a third round pick.
Others: Bryant Packard, Matt Gorski, Gabe Holt, Jordan Brewer
Tier I: JJ Bleday, Hunter Bishop
The two top outfielders in the class arrived here with huge junior seasons in which they tremendously improved their stock. Vanderbilt's JJ Bleday was seen as more likely to go in the back half of the first round after he slashed .368/.494/.511 with four home runs and a 23/31 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2018, with scouts pleased by his plate discipline but looking for more power. He provided it and more this year, slashing .346/.461/.748 with 25 home runs and a 45/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games, showing few if any holes in his offensive game with power, contact, and plate discipline in spades. He also slashed .311/.374/.500 on the Cape and has slashed .304/.438/.687 in SEC play, so there is little worry that he'll produce at the next level. With a strong arm but not much foot speed, he'll be a serviceable right fielder with most of his value tied to his bat, which projects to have middle of the order impact. He'll get drafted somewhere between the third and sixth picks. Across the country, Arizona State's Hunter Bishop has improved his stock more than perhaps any player this season, jumping from a day two pick to the top half of the first round. After slashing .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore for the Sun Devils, he busted out with 22 home runs, a .356/.482/.792 slash line, and a 56/42 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games as a junior, showing some of the best raw power in the class along the way. Despite adding a ton of power, Bishop cut his strikeout rate by a quarter and bumped up his walk rate by more than 50%, which bodes well for his ability to continue to tap that power at the next level. His strikeout rate is still a little bit high (22.3%) and he has come down to Earth a bit in Pac-12 play (.273/.403/.555), so he's safely behind Bleday in my book, he's easily the better defender and could stay in center field. He likely cracks the top ten picks and there have been a lot of rumors about the Rangers taking him eighth overall, though I believe I may be the low guy on him.
Tier II: Kameron Misner
Don't take Misner's spot by himself here to mean anything about him specifically; there really are no other college outfielders who are close to his skill level, with Bleday and Bishop being much better and the Tier III guys being well behind him. Missouri's Kameron Misner could have pushed his way into Tier I with a good run through SEC play, but his overall .287/.443/.485 line with ten home runs and a 56/54 strikeout to walk ratio includes just a .222/.353/.315 line against advanced SEC pitching. That makes Misner a bit of a conundrum, as he missed most of SEC play as well as summer ball last season with a broken foot. He's a great athlete with power, speed, and a strong arm, and he hit well last year (.360/.497/.576) in his 34 games as a sophomore, mostly against non-SEC pitching. Misner's great outfield defense will buy his bat plenty of time, and his power and high walk rate are definitely there, but he's just unproven against higher level pitching and the holes in his swing might get exposed. He has the ceiling of a #5 hitter with a strong glove and arm, but he comes with more risk than is usual for players of his profile. He looks to be drafted in the back half of the first round.
Tier III: Matt Wallner, Kyle Stowers, Will Robertson, Zach Watson, Dominic Fletcher
While Misner is alone in that second tier, there are plenty of bats in the third tier and they're all a little different. Matt Wallner, a two-way player out of Southern Miss, has had an up and down season after slashing .351/.474/.618 with 16 home runs and a 53/48 strikeout to walk ratio last year. This year, he's slashing .315/.431/.665 with 19 home runs and a 43/40 strikeout to walk ratio through 53 games, the only real differences between this year and last year being less consistency, a bit more power, and a lower batting average on balls in play. He's 6'5" and his left handed swing is geared more for power than for contact, which has worked against C-USA pitching but gave him so-so results in the Cape Cod League (.250/.343/.417, 24/8 K/BB). He's far from a guarantee to hit at the next level, but he has shown enough game power and plate discipline to warrant a second round selection and he could pop 30 home runs annually in the majors. Some teams were also looking at him as a potential reliever, but arm issues have kept him from pitching this season and he has stated that he prefers to hit. That arm does play well in the outfield, giving him some defensive value in right field. Over at Stanford, Kyle Stowers has had an interesting run. In 2018, Stowers slashed .286/.383/.512 with ten home runs and a 49/30 strikeout to walk ratio, then he hit six home runs and slashed .326/.361/.565 on the Cape over the summer. This year seems like more of the same with seven home runs and a .293/.365/.506 line, but his 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio means means that he cut his strikeout rate in half. That's especially interesting given that the length in his swing has led to swing and miss concerns. It's hard to say what Stowers' ultimate projection is, because he looks like more of a fourth outfielder with his solid power but potentially low on-base percentages, but the production on the Cape and this year's reduced strikeout rate could mean that he'll get to his power more often than we might think. He looks like a third rounder, but he could sneak into the back of the second. Creighton's Will Robertson is also hard to project, with his eleven home runs, .301/.390/.554 slash line, and 37/19 strikeout to walk ratio making for another solid season in Omaha. He has left handed power and it played up on the Cape (4 HR, .300/.380/.435), making evaluators hopeful that his lack of tough competition in the Big East will be less of an issue. He could be a middle of the order hitter if everything plays up as hoped, though his aggressive approach against mediocre Big East pitching does give him some risk. He also doesn't have much defensive value as a decent left fielder, so the pressure will be on his bat. He looks like a third rounder. Zach Watson is a very well known name in the SEC, as he has started for LSU for three years now and has produced every season. This year has been more of the same, as he slashed .317/.367/.472 with five home runs and a 38/14 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 50 games. He was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year and could have been a second or third round pick after slashing a nearly identical .308/.366/.479, but he wanted to return to Baton Rouge and he's back in roughly the same spot this year. He has a line drive bat and hits the ball very hard for someone listed at just 165 pounds, but his aggressive approach limits his walks and his line drive swing limits his power. Offensively, he has the tools to work with to become a solid piece (though he'll also turn 22 a few weeks after the draft), but his real value is on defense, where he is a very good center fielder and can track down almost any ball hit in his direction. Because he hasn't made any progress over last year's numbers, he looks like a third round pick. Arkansas's Dominic Fletcher is a fairly similar player to Watson, slashing .320/.383/.551 with ten home runs and a 48/22 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games this season. Fletcher, like Watson, makes plenty of contact against SEC pitching and has a long track record of starting for his team, though he's also listed at 5'9" and that limits his overall offensive outlook. He has a strong glove, though not quite to the same level as Watson's, and that buys his bat some slack, and he's also considered to have a strong feel for the game that will help him maximize his tools. Improving his plate discipline should be a good start, and he also looks like a third round pick.
Others: Bryant Packard, Matt Gorski, Gabe Holt, Jordan Brewer
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