Showing posts with label Dylan Cease. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dylan Cease. Show all posts

Saturday, October 8, 2022

2022 Dugout Edge MLB Awards

American League MVP

Winner: OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Stat line: 62 HR, .311/.425/.686, 16 SB, 207 wRC+, 11.4 fWAR in 157 games
All due respect to Shohei Ohtani, seriously. I cannot emphasize enough how incredible he is, and if he hits and pitches at a high level every year, I have no problem with him winning the MVP every year. It should take a truly historic season to top an ace pitcher/middle of the order hitter, and unfortunately for Shohei, that's just what Aaron Judge provided this year. We all know his 62 home runs are the most by a hitter since Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa hit 73 and 64, respectively, in 2001, as well as the most home runs ever by an American League hitter. But not only that, his .686 slugging percentage was the highest in a non-shortened season since J.D. Martinez slugged .690 in 2017, while his 1.111 OPS was the highest since prime Albert Pujols reached 1.115 in 2008. What's more is that he did all this in a year where offense was down across the board, so his 207 wRC+ made him the first member of the 200 club since Barry Bonds in 2004. Throw in very solid outfield defense, and Aaron Judge's 11.4 fWAR was the seventeenth highest total in MLB history, again the highest since Barry Bonds in 2004. Only eight different players – Bonds, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, and Honus Wagner – have ever topped that number, and only Bonds and Mantle did so since integration. Overall, he led the American League this year in home runs, RBI (131), runs scored (133), walks (111), total bases (391), on-base percentage (.425), slugging percentage, OPS, wRC+, and WAR, and many of those weren't even close. Judge hit for tremendous power and got on base at a top-of-the-league clip in a year where offense was down across the board, threw in solid outfield defense and 16 stolen bases, and put up an all time great season. Shohei Ohtani is unbelievable, but there is no denying what Aaron Judge did this year is legendary.

Runner-up: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 34 HR, .273/.356/.519, 11 SB, 142 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR in 157 games
Stat line: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.40 FIP, 219/44 K/BB in 166 innings
I am of the belief that if Shohei Ohtani plays at this level every year, then he should win the MVP every year, and he would have this year if Aaron Judge didn't hit 62 home runs and throw up eleven-plus WAR. A year ago, he deservedly won the AL MVP after posting a 3.18 ERA over 130.1 innings and a 151 wRC+ over 158 games as a hitter. This year, he dropped that ERA nearly a run to 2.33, threw 35.2 additional innings, and maintained nearly the same wRC+ at 142 over 157 games as a hitter. All told, he was probably even better this year than he was last year. Just isolating his bat, he was the American League's seventh best hitter by wRC+, ahead of stars like Rafael Devers (141), Carlos Correa (140), Jose Ramirez (139), Alex Bregman (136), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (132). His 34 home runs also placed third in the league and despite spending all that time on the mound, he still stepped to the plate 666 times, ninth most in the AL. And he still found the time to steal eleven bases. Flip over to the mound, and his numbers were perhaps even more impressive. He accumulated 5.6 fWAR as a pitcher, good for third in the AL behind Justin Verlander (6.1) and Kevin Gausman (5.7), while his 2.33 ERA finished fourth and his 2.40 FIP came in second. So we are talking about perhaps a top ten hitter and a top five pitcher in the league – nobody will ever do that again. In fact, if some player comes around and so much as posts an ERA in the 4's with a league average bat, that would be incredible, but we wouldn't see it that way because Ohtani has spoiled us.

Honorable mention: 2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Stat line: 28 HR, .300/.387/.533, 18 SB, 164 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 141 games
I went back and forth, back and forth on this third spot between Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez, who had extremely similar seasons as all-around well above average hitters with some speed and solid if unspectacular gloves on the infield dirt. Altuve was clearly the better hitter, as he finished 20, 32, and 19 points, respectively, ahead of Ramirez in the three triple slash categories of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, while his 164 wRC+ dwarfed Ramirez's very respectable 139. However, Ramirez also played in 16 more games than Altuve, missing just five Guardians games to Altuve's 21. I initially leaned Altuve due to the bat, moved over to Ramirez when I looked closer and decided that his 16 extra games were enough to overcome the offensive gap, then came back to Altuve when I looked at how their production was spread out throughout the year. Ramirez came out of the gate extremely hot, slashing .342/.411/.722 in April and holding a .288/.368/.576 slash line through the first half, but he gradually slowed down throughout the season as his OPS dropped in every month besides October and he hit just .269/.339/.439 in the second half as his teammates stepped up to put the finishing touches on the AL Central title run. Altuve, meanwhile, was a non-factor in April as he missed time with a hamstring injury and didn't hit much when he was on the field, but once he got over that and found his groove, there was no turning back. From May onwards, he was one of the best hitters in baseball as he slashed .310/.396/.554 and picked up all 6.6 of his fWAR – the third most in baseball in that stretch, behind only Aaron Judge's 10.4 and Paul Goldschmidt's 6.8. Wins in April count just as much as wins in September, but there's something to be said about momentum. Altuve was a non-factor in April and was excellent from May onwards, while Ramirez was exceptional to start the season and gradually slowed down.

Others
3B Jose Ramirez (Guardians): 29 HR, .280/.355/.514, 20 SB, 139 wRC+, 6.2 fWAR in 157 games
DH Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 37 HR, .306/.406/.613, 1 SB, 185 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 135 games
RHP Justin Verlander (Astros): 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 185/29 K/BB in 175 innings
3B Alex Bregman (Astros): 23 HR, .259/.366/.454, 1 SB, 136 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR in 155 games
2B Andres Gimenez (Guardians): 17 HR, .297/.371/.466, 20 SB, 140 wRC+, 6.1 fWAR in 146 games

National League MVP

Winner: 3B Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
Stat line: 30 HR, .293/.358/.533, 5 SB, 151 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR in 148 games
If you look at the raw offensive numbers for Nolan Arenado, you may not be overly impressed. His .381 wOBA would not stand out in most seasons, but offense was down across MLB in 2022 and it actually came out to the fourth best mark in the National League, and just barely behind Manny Machado's third place .382. He didn't actually lead the NL in any individual stat, but in addition to finishing fourth in wOBA he was also second in fWAR, third in slugging percentage, third in doubles, fourth in wRC+, fourth in OPS, and fifth in extra base hits (73). He did all that while finishing with the third lowest strikeout rate in the league at 11.6%, behind only contact artists Jeff McNeil and Nico Hoerner – in fact, you can throw in Miguel Rojas right behind him and the other three names in the top four combined for just 25 home runs to his 30. Arenado's combination of power and elite ability to put the ball in play was not matched this year, and that's all just in the bat. We all know that he is also one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, sucking up everything that comes his way at the hot corner and turning surefire infield singles or down the line extra base hits into outs at first base. Per Statcast, his 15 outs above average were second among all NL third basemen behind only Pittsburgh's Ke'Bryan Hayes, if you want confirmation. Take that bat in a down year for offense combined with the elite glove, and you can make a pretty strong case that no National League player was better than Nolan Arenado in 2022.

Runner-up: 3B Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Stat line: 32 HR, .298/.366/.531, 9 SB, 152 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR in 150 games
One man did have a nearly identical season to Arenado, and that's Manny Machado. Like Arenado, Machado is an elite defensive third baseman that provides significant value with his glove. His eight outs above average at the hot corner were fourth in the NL, but because Arenado nearly doubled him in that category, he gets the edge despite nearly identical offensive stats (his 11.6% strikeout rate to Manny's 20.7% also helps). Mchado actually beat Arenado by five points in batting average and eight points in on-base percentage while falling two points short in slugging percentage, which gave him a one point advantage in the all-encompassing stats of wOBA (.382) and wRC+. It also meant that Manny led the NL in fWAR while finishing third in wRC+, third in wOBA,third in OPS, fourth in batting average, fourth in slugging percentage, and fifth in total bases (307). Overall, it was one of the best all-around seasons in the NL, but his excellent defense vs Arenado's elite defense and his higher strikeout rate contributed to him falling just short in my book.

Honorable mention: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Stat line: 35 HR, .317/.404/.578, 7 SB, 177 wRC+, 7.1 fWAR in 151 games
Paul Goldschmidt was the single best hitter in the National League this year, and I don't think there are any two ways around it. He led the league in wRC+, wOBA (.419), slugging percentage, and OPS, all by a very healthy margin, and finished second in total bases (324), second in on-base percentage, third in hits (178), third in batting average, fourth in extra base hits (76), and fifth in home runs. He was so good, in fact, that I very nearly put him ahead of defensive whizzes Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado, though his being limited to first base does hurt his value just a little. Goldschmidt did look like the favorite for much of the season and was slashing .338/.423/.633 on August 27th, but his bat quieted a bit towards the finish line and he hit just .229/.325/.349 over his final 31 games, allowing Arenado and Machado to overtake him.

Others
1B Freddie Freeman (Dodgers): 21 HR, .325/.407/.511, 13 SB, 157 wRC+, 7.1 fWAR in 159 games
RHP Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 207/50 K/BB in 228.2 innings
OF Mookie Betts (Dodgers): 35 HR, .269/.340/.533, 12 SB, 144 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 142 games
C J.T. Realmuto (Phillies): 22 HR, .276/.342/.478, 21 SB, 128 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR in 139 games
2B Jeff McNeil (Mets): 9 HR, .326/.382/.454, 4 SB, 143 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR in 148 games

American League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Stat line: 18-4, 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 185/29 K/BB in 175 innings
Justin Verlander may have thrown just the sixteenth most innings in the American League this year, behind names like Jordan Lyles and Nick Pivetta, but those 175 innings were some of the most dominant we have seen in some time. In fact, only two live ball era pitchers have EVER had a lower ERA and a lower WHIP while throwing that many innings in a season: Greg Maddux in 1995 (1.63 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 209.2 IP) and Pedro Martinez in 2000 (1.74 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 217 IP). That's it, that's the list. For my money, that is plenty enough to award him the AL Cy Young Award. He may not be striking out as many batters as he used to, with his 27.8% rate (sixth best in the AL) actually by far his lowest mark with the Astros, but pinpoint command meant he walked just 4.4% of his opponents, third best in the league. He was untouchable from start to finish this season, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 26 of his 28 starts and allowing one or zero earned runs in 20 of 28. He also never walked more than three batters in a start, walked more than two just twice, and walked one or zero in 21 of 28 starts. His worst ERA in any month was 2.27, while his worst WHIP was 1.01. That ERA would have finished fourth in the AL and that WHIP would have finished sixth. Just unbelievable stuff from the 39 year old future first ballot Hall of Famer.

Runner-up: RHP Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
Stat line: 14-8, 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.10 FIP, 227/78 K/BB in 184 innings
So Dylan Cease led the entire American League with 78 walks and a 10.4% walk rate, which isn't ideal, but he actually did almost everything else well. He finished second in ERA, second in strikeouts, second in opponents' batting average (.190), third in games started, and third in strikeout rate (30.4%), and he did all of that despite playing in front of one of the worst defenses in the AL that did him no favors. So he walked a lot of guys, but he stranded most of them on base and did pretty much everything else as well as you could. And even though he was a bit wild, he only hit three batters, the fifth fewest among the 22 qualified starters in the AL. It's a low ERA, high strikeout, large sample season that is comfortably behind Justin Verlander's but in my opinion just a touch better than everyone else in the league. To this point in his career, he has now dropped his ERA and WHIP in each of his four major league seasons.

Honorable mention: RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.40 FIP, 219/44 K/BB in 166 innings
We already talked about Shohei Ohtani's pitching in the AL MVP section, and in my opinion he had the third best season of any AL pitcher this year, bat notwithstanding. Not only did he blast 34 home runs with a .356 on-base percentage as a hitter, but he was a legitimate ace and the best pitcher on the west coast. He led the American League in strikeout rate (33.2%), finished second in FIP, third in strikeouts, fourth in ERA, and fifth in WHIP, and additionally only allowed two unearned runs so he didn't allow errors to hurt him. He had ten different double digit strikeout games, kept the ball in the ballpark with just 14 home runs allowed (fourth fewest among qualified AL starters), and pitched like an ace nearly every time he went out there.

Others
RHP Shane Bieber (Guardians): 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.87 FIP, 198/36 K/BB in 200 innings
RHP Alek Manoah (Blue Jays): 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 180/51 K/BB in 196.2 innings
LHP Shane McClanahan (Rays): 2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.00 FIP, 194/38 K/BB in 166.1 innings
RHP Emmanuel Clase (Guardians): 1.36 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 1.98 FIP, 77/10 K/BB in 72.2 innings
LHP Nestor Cortes (Yankees): 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 3.13 FIP, 163/38 K/BB in 158.1 innings

National League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
Stat line: 14-9, 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 207/50 K/BB in 228.2 innings
Sometimes, old fashioned is better. Sandy Alcantara led all of Major League Baseball in innings pitched by 23.2 over second place Aaron Nola, with his 228.2 representing the highest total for any pitcher since David Price threw 230 innings for the 2016 Red Sox. Additionally, his six complete games (five of the nine inning variety) doubled second place Framber Valdez's total of three this year, and again represented the highest total since Chris Sale's six for the 2016 White Sox. Alcantara's shortest start this year was 4.2 innings, and he completed seven innings in 22 of his 32 starts. But you don't get the Cy Young Award just for throwing a bunch of innings, and Alcantara pitched like an ace throughout. Not only was he on the mound far more than anybody else this season, he also finished second in the NL in ERA, fourth in strikeouts, fifth in FIP, and sixth in WHIP. That kind of dominance over such a large sample is just too easy a choice for this award.

Runner-up: RHP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Stat line: 11-13, 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.58 FIP, 235/29 K/BB in 205 innings
Aaron Nola's 3.25 ERA may have been just the thirteenth best in the National League, but it was an otherwise exceptional season. Pitching in front of an poor Phillies defense that finished 29th out of 30 teams in terms of outs above average and in a hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, his 2.58 FIP (second in the NL) and 2.74 xERA (per Statcast) point to significant bad luck, mostly owing to that bad defense behind him. And yet he still threw the most innings in MLB by pitchers not named Alcantara, led all NL pitchers in fWAR (6.3) and walk rate (3.6%), and finished third in strikeouts, third in games started, and fourth in WHIP. It was about as well as you could expect anybody to pitch on their own, and if you swapped any other pitcher into his circumstances, I'm not sure you would have seen better numbers from anybody.

Honorable mention: RHP Carlos Rodon, San Francisco Giants
Stat line: 14-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.25 FIP, 237/52 K/BB in 178 innings
Carlos Rodon found himself in a similar position to Aaron Nola, pitching in front of the third worst defense in the majors in San Francisco. In fact, if you take his defense out of it, his 2.25 FIP led all of Major League Baseball, so he controlled the three true outcomes better than anybody. In addition to leading the league in FIP, he also led the NL in strikeout rate (33.4%) and finished second in strikeouts (237), second in fWAR (6.2), sixth in ERA, and ninth in WHIP. He had eleven double digit strikeout games and was overall just a bat missing machine, which is exactly what the Giants needed given their relative inability to field the baseball.

Others
LHP Max Fried (Braves): 2.48 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.70 FIP, 170/32 K/BB in 185.1 innings
RHP Corbin Burnes (Brewers): 2.94 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 3.14 FIP, 243/51 K/BB in 202 innings
RHP Edwin Diaz (Mets): 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.90 FIP, 118/18 K/BB in 62 innings
RHP Spencer Strider (Braves): 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.83 FIP, 202/45 K/BB in 131.2 innings
RHP Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 2.34 FIP, 94/20 K/BB in 64.2 innings

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
Stat line: 13 HR, .254/.362/.445, 4 SB, 133 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 113 games
Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez are so neck and neck, with fWAR assigning them both the same value at 5.3 and bWAR giving Rodriguez a 6.0 to 5.2 edge. You really can't go wrong with either here, and I'm only choosing Rutschman because you can't have two rookies of the year. Rutschman played 19 fewer games than Rodriguez and fell 13 points behind in wRC+, but he was also one of the better defensive catchers in baseball. The Orioles as a team had a 3.97 ERA this year, but that was down to 3.79 with Rutschman behind the plate versus 4.39 with Robinson Chirinos. He didn't only help the pitching staff, he helped the whole team. The Orioles were 16-24 (.400 WPCT) when he got called up, then went 67-55 (.549 WPCT) from there on out. To come in and immediately improve not only a pitching staff, but a team like that is even more impressive as a 24 year old rookie, and his presence is looking to kickstart an era that could bring the best Orioles teams since the Jim Palmer/Eddie Murray golden era of the 1970's and early 1980's. Rutschman isn't just notable for his glove, though, as his 133 wRC+ shows he brings a serious bat as well. His .362 on-base percentage would have been fourteenth best in the American League and his 13.8% walk rate sixth best if he had enough at bats to qualify, while his 35 doubles clocked in at thirteenth. Obviously those numbers won't blow you away, but again, this is a 24 year old rookie whose glove and clubhouse presence have already helped transform a team.

Runner-up: OF Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
Stat line: 28 HR, .284/.345/.509, 25 SB, 146 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 132 games
Like I mentioned, Julio Rodriguez is equally deserving of the Rookie of the Year Award, and Adley Rutschman only beat him by a hair. Rodriguez's season was very different than Rutschman's, but just as impressive. He played in 19 more games, hit 15 more home runs, and posted a wRC+ 13 points higher, just about making up for Rutschman's prowess behind the plate. And don't forget about Rodriguez's glove, because even though center field might not be quite as important as catcher, his seven outs above average came in thirteenth among American League outfielders. In what was a down year for hitters, his 146 wRC+ was the fifth best in the entire AL, behind only Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Yandy Diaz (yep, Yandy Diaz quietly finished at 146). His 5.3 overall fWAR finished ninth in the league, just edging Rutschman. Rodriguez played the entire season at just 21 years old, in a very pitcher-friendly home stadium, and early in the season was the recipient of some of the worst called strike luck in recent memory, but you would't know that from his final numbers that included a 25-25 season. And we can't forget the show he put on at the Home Run Derby, either. He'll likely be worth every penny of that mega contract he signed with Seattle.

Honorable mention: OF Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 6 HR, .298/.373/.400, 19 SB, 124 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR in 147 games
It's a two horse race for the AL Rookie of the Year this year, but let's not forget about Cleveland outfielder Steven Kwan. An elite contact bat, he was one of just five qualified American League hitters to draw more walks than strikeouts, and his 9.4% strikeout rate was the second lowest in the league behind only Luis Arraez. His .373 on-base percentage was also ninth best in the league, so overall Kwan was just relentless about putting the ball in play and getting on base. The power wasn't quite there, but he did add significant value on defense with eight outs above average, good for eighth among AL outfielders. He fits in perfectly with Cleveland's contact-first style of play, and his big rookie season deserves recognition in the shadows of Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez.

Others
RHP Jhoan Duran, Twins: 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.52 FIP, 89/16 K/BB in 67.2 innings
RHP George Kirby, Mariners: 3.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 133/22 K/BB in 130 innings
RHP Joe Ryan, Twins: 3.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.99 FIP, 151/47 K/BB in 147 innings
SS Jeremy Peña, Astros: 22 HR, .253/.289/.426, 11 SB, 102 wRC+ in 136 games
LHP Brock Burke, Rangers: 1.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 3.30 FIP, 90/24 K/BB in 82.1 innings

National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: RHP Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 11-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.83 FIP, 202/45 K/BB in 131.2 innings
The NL Rookie of the Year Award will come down to two Braves, and I think Spencer Strider gets the edge. He accrued the fifth most fWAR (4.9) of any National League pitcher this year, rookie or not, enough to earn the #6 spot on my NL Cy Young ballot. Though he only threw 131.2 innings, he was one of just six NL pitchers to record 200 strikeouts this year while his 38.3% strikeout rate and 1.83 FIP led the NL (min. 130 innings) by a huge margin ahead of second place Carlos Rodon's 33.4% and 2.25, respectively. He actually began the year in the Atlanta bullpen and made eleven relief appearances with a 2.22 ERA and a 37/11 strikeout to walk ratio in April and May, but jumped to the rotation at the end of the month and never looked back. He recorded his first double digit strikeout game in his third start and pitched the game of the year on September 1st, when he allowed jut two hits and no walks over eight shutout innings against the Rockies, striking out 16 along the way. Now Strider did walk 8.5% of his opponents, the ninth highest mark in the NL among pitchers who threw at least 130 innings, but if he can get that down, the league could have its next true ace.

Runner-up: OF Michael Harris, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 19 HR, .297/.339/.514, 20 SB, 136 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR in 114 games
Like Spencer Strider, Michael Harris didn't play enough to qualify for rate-based stats, but he was so great once he did come up in late May that he deserves a good long look for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. I gave it to Strider because I see him fitting much better into the down ballot Cy Young discussion than Harris fits in the down ballot MVP discussion, but it is fairly close. Harris came one home run short of a 20-20 season despite missing a third of the season, and his .514 slugging percentage topped Julio Rodriguez for the best among MLB rookies (min. 100 games played) while his .297 batting average fell just behind Steven Kwan's .298 and his .853 OPS fell just behind Rodriguez's .854. He was also a very strong defender whose seven outs above average were enough to finish fourth among all NL outfielders. It's a pretty similar season overall to Rodriguez (in 18 fewer games), who got much more media attention.

Honorable mention: LHP Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
Stat line: 4-7, 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.90 FIP, 131/39 K/BB in 103.1 innings
It was a forgettable season in Cincinnati, but four rookie pitchers had seasons to remember. Nick Lodolo was perhaps the best among them and earns the third spot on my NL Rookie of the Year ballot, but Hunter Greene was right there behind him while Alexis Diaz was the best rookie reliever in the NL and Braxton Ashcraft made it to one hundred innings as well. Lodolo earns this spot despite throwing 22.1 fewer innings than Greene over five fewer starts because when he was on the mound, he was better. His 3.66 ERA, 3.90 FIP, and 1.25 FIP all compare very favorably to league averages, as the 24 year old gave the Reds 103.1 very effective innings in the rotation right off the bat. He got better as the season went along, too, and figures to stick around near the top of that Reds rotation for a very long time.

Others
RHP Hunter Greene (Reds): 4.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.37 FIP, 164/48 K/BB in 125.2 innings
RHP Alexis Diaz (Reds): 1.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 3.32 FIP, 83/33 K/BB in 63.2 innings
2B Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): 5 HR, .281/.394/.379, 2 SB, 129 wRC+ in 126 games
1B Joey Meneses (Nationals): 13 HR, .324/.367/.563, 1 SB, 156 wRC+ in 56 games
OF Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): 14 HR, .262/.336/.433, 9 SB, 116 wRC+ in 111 games

American League Reliever of the Year

Winner: RHP Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 1.36 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 1.98 FIP, 77/10 K/BB in 72.2 innings
If you want to talk untouchable, then Emmanuel Clase is a great place to start. Opponents hit a paltry .167/.200/.225 against him as virtually nobody could barrel his triple digit cutter from start of the season to finish. His 28.4% strikeout rate was strong but not elite, but when hitters did make contact, it was weak contact galore as they wound up with a barrage of weak ground balls. He didn't walk anybody, either with just a 3.7% walk rate, so you really just had to get lucky to reach base. In fact, his longest stretch of consecutive appearances allowing a baserunner was just three appearances. In other words, he never went four games without posting at least one perfect appearance.

Others
RHP Jason Adam (Rays): 1.56 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 2.86 FIP, 75/17 K/BB in 63.1 innings
RHP Andres Muñoz (Mariners): 2.49 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.04 FIP, 96/15 K/BB in 65 innings
RHP Jhoan Duran, Twins: 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.52 FIP, 89/16 K/BB in 67.2 innings

National League Reliever of the Year

Winner: RHP Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Stat line: 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.90 FIP, 118/18 K/BB in 62 innings
There were some great relievers in the National League this year, dare I say a deeper group than in the American League, but Edwin Diaz ultimately made this an easy choice. The man ran a 1.31 ERA as he allowed just nine runs in 62 innings, but even more impressive was a 0.90 FIP that represents the fourth lowest mark of all time (min. 50 innings) behind only 2012 Craig Kimbrel (0.78), 2003 Eric Gagne (0.86), and 2014 Aroldis Chapman (0.89). He was certainly helped by striking out 118 of the 235 batters he faced, good for a 50.2% strikeout rate that made him the third pitcher ever to strike out more than half the hitters he faced (min. 50 innings) after 2014 Chapman (52.5%) and 2012 Kimbrel (50.2%). Yeah, that'll play.

Others
RHP Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 2.34 FIP, 94/20 K/BB in 64.2 innings
RHP Evan Phillips (Dodgers): 1.14 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 1.94 FIP, 77/15 K/BB in 63 innings
RHP Devin Williams (Brewers): 1.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.01 FIP, 96/30 K/BB in 60.2 innings

Saturday, February 23, 2019

Reviewing the Chicago White Sox Farm System

Through trades and player development, the White Sox have built one of the top farm systems in baseball led by some star hitters as well as plenty of pitching depth. Because many of the system's top prospects came via trade, most of the best prospects are closer to the majors, and with the White Sox' window of contention looking to begin around 2020, that's just how they want it. It's really a nice balance they have going and they're not lacking in any demographic except perhaps infielders beyond Nick Madrigal.

Affiliates: AAA Charlotte Knights, AA Birmingham Barons, High A Winston-Salem Dash, Class A Kannapolis Intimidators, rookie level Great Falls Voyagers, and complex level AZL and DSL White Sox

The Headliner: OF Eloy Jimenez
Big systems like this often have multiple headliners, but 22 year old Eloy Jimenez is just so good that he warrants his own section even in this stacked system. Originally signed by the Cubs for $2.8 million in 2013 as arguably the top international prospect in the class, he was sent over to the White Sox (along with, among others, arguably the system's current top pitching prospect in Dylan Cease) for Jose Quintana in 2017, and he has gotten better every year in the minors. In 2018, he slashed .337/.384/.577 with 22 home runs and a 69/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games between AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, firmly establishing himself as one of the top prospects in the game. Jimenez's best tool is his light tower power from a 6'4" frame, but unlike most sluggers his age, he rarely lets the ball get by him and lines a ton of singles and doubles as well. This ability to consistently find the barrel will make his already tremendous power play up in the majors, giving him the chance to hit 30 or more home runs per season while posting good on-base percentages. At this point, he doesn't walk all that much, though the rest of his offensive profile more than makes up for that and he should be a middle of the order thumper in the very near future. Defensively, he's not going to be much help in left field, but that doesn't matter because of his bat. He'll likely begin the 2019 season in AAA "working on his defense" (so the White Sox can get another year of team control), but once he's up in the majors around late April, he should be a strong contender in a stacked AL Rookie of the Year race that should also include Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Danny Jansen, Houston's Kyle Tucker, Tampa Bay's Brent Honeywell, and Oakland's Jesus Luzardo, among many others.

High Minors Hitters: C Seby Zavala, C Zack Collins, OF Luis Alexander Basabe, OF Joel Booker, OF Danny Mendick, and 1B Gavin Sheets
The talent level among hitters in the upper minors drops off considerably after Eloy Jimenez, but there is still plenty of talent to go around and the White Sox should have significant reinforcements coming in the next couple of seasons. 25 year old Seby Zavala is an older prospect who just slashed .258/.317/.418 with 13 home runs and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games between AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, but he can stick behind the plate and that makes the bat play up. He's not the best defender, but he can handle the catcher's position adequately and has enough power and on-base ability to profile comfortably as a back-up catcher in the near future. Behind him, 24 year old Zack Collins is the team's top catching prospect, and he slashed .234/.382/.404 with 15 home runs and a 158/101 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games with Birmingham. The former Miami Hurricane and 2016 first round pick (tenth overall) has a very interesting profile both offensively and defensively. He has plenty of raw power but struggles to get to it in games due to high strikeout rates, but he also draws so many walks that his game-value might actually lie more in his on-base percentage than his slugging percentage despite hitting just 58 singles in 122 games in 2018 (that's what happens with 50 extra base hits, 101 walks, and 158 strikeouts). Defensively, he's not quite a natural behind the plate, but he reportedly has worked extremely hard to be where he is and the White Sox are confident he can handle the position at the highest level. Together, that makes for a wide range of possibilities even after a full season in AA, with his ceiling being that of a power hitting catcher who can pop 20-30 home runs per season with good on-base percentages and playable defense. However, he'll have to make more contact to make that a reality. 22 year old Luis Alexander Basabe, one of the less well-known players the White Sox received in the package for Chris Sale, slashed .258/.354/.445 with 15 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 140/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games between High A Winston-Salem and Birmingham. However, he broke his hand in spring training and will have to miss the beginning of the 2019 season. Basabe is an outfielder who is more well known for his glove than his bat, as he can stick in center field and play well there, taking pressure off his bat. He has some power and has shown the ability to draw walks and get on base, but at this point he strikes out too much to confidently project him as an every day player, and the broken hand won't help him in his quest to conquer that. As I said though, the glove does buy the bat some slack, so he still has a chance to earn a starting spot down the road with a few tweaks in his approach. 25 year olds Joel Booker and Danny Mendick will compete for bench spots in the near future, with Booker holding a fourth outfielder projection and Mendick looking to be a utility infielder. Booker slashed .279/.360/.399 with seven home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 119/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, performing better before the promotion (.297/.389/.469) but still holding his own afterwards (.266/.338/.348). His speed and contact ability will help him up the ladder, but ultimately the bat-glove combination is a little light to ever envision him starting. Mendick, meanwhile, slashed .247/.340/.395 with 14 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 90/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at Birmingham. To me, he's the slightly better prospect with better plate discipline, a bit more power, and the ability to stick in the infield. He's not the rangiest shortstop but could probably handle a spot start or two at a time there, overall bringing a utility infield projection with an average bat and average glove. Lastly, 22 year old Gavin Sheets had an interesting first full pro season after being drafted in the second round (49th overall) out of Wake Forest in 2017. In 2018, he slashed .293/.368/.407 with six home runs and an 81/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Winston-Salem (just down the street from where he played college ball), handling High A pitching well just a year after he was drafted. However, the 6'4", 230 pound slugger's power did not quite show up with wood bats like it did with metal bats in college (he blasted 21 home runs in 63 games in his junior season), and as a first baseman, that's raises questions. His bat is supposed to carry him if he wants to start in the major leagues, and while it's nice that he makes plenty of contact and controls the strike zone well, you want more out of a 6'4" first baseman. It will be interesting to see if he can add power in 2019.

Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Luis Robert, OF Blake Rutherford, OF Luis Gonzalez, OF Micker Adolfo, SS Nick Madrigal, OF Steele Walker, and 3B Jake Burger
Lower down, the White Sox are stacked with outfielders and should have no trouble building their outfields down the line. The best prospect is 21 year old Luis Robert, who signed for an incredible $26 million in 2017 out of Cuba but who has struggled to stay healthy. In 2018, Robert slashed .269/.333/.360 with no home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 52/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games between Class A Kannapolis, High A Winston-Salem, and complex level rehab, missing a lot of time with a thumb injury. Despite going homerless in 2018, Robert generates plenty of raw power from a smooth right handed swing and a 6'3" frame, and he did slash .324/.367/.432 with a pair of home runs and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the Arizona Fall League. Once he gets healthy, he should have no trouble getting to his power consistently, with the upside as a top or middle of the order hitter. Defensively, he plays a solid center field and would be equally valuable in right, and his plus speed helps him steal plenty of bases as well as provide that great defense. The biggest question marks for Robert just come with proving his immense talent on the diamond, as the injuries have kept him from getting consistent at bats. 21 year old Blake Rutherford was acquired from the Yankees in the big Todd Frazier/David Robertson trade of 2017, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.345/.436 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 90/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at Winston-Salem. At 6'3", Rutherford looks like a power hitter, but he has been more of a line drive hitter in pro ball and instead lines extra base hits around the field. That ability to make contact and find the barrel leaves the White Sox hoping he can translate that gap power into over the fence power, as he's just average in the outfield and will need his bat to carry him. He still carries high upside and could be a breakout candidate for 2019, during which he'll turn 22 and likely spend most of his time at AA, but for now he looks like a decent regular who could hold down a starting spot for a little bit or end up a strong fourth outfielder. 23 year old Luis Gonzalez, unrelated to former World Series hero Luis Gonzalez (his son Jacob is in the Giants' organization), was a third round pick (87th overall) out of New Mexico in 2017 and slashed .307/.368/.498 with 14 home runs and a 103/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games between Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, not losing any production after his promotion. He has a ton of gap power and plenty of feel for the barrel, which enabled him to rack up 59 extra base hits in 2018 (including 40 doubles) and leaves the White Sox confident he'll continue to hit as he moves up the ladder. He was extremely patient in college as well as in his pro debut in 2017, but he drew fewer walks in 2018 and that will be something to watch. He plays a very solid center field, and at this point he carries a similar projection to Rutherford as a potential regular who could be a very strong fourth outfielder, albeit with less uncertainty in the projection (higher floor, lower ceiling/less breakout potential). 22 year old Micker Adolfo followed up his breakout 2017 (.264/.331/.453) with another solid season in 2018, slashing .282/.369/.464 with eleven home runs and a 92/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, though Tommy John surgery ended his season in July. He has plenty of power at the plate but doesn't always get to it due to a high strikeout rate, though the White Sox hope that more consistent time on the field will help him on that front (like Robert, he has missed a lot of time to injuries). He's not all that fast but he has a cannon arm, making him a prototypical right fielder and one whose bat doesn't necessarily have to carry all of the weight. Adolfo could end up being a 20-25 homer bat down the line, but we'll have to see how he fares with more consistent health and playing time in the coming seasons. 21 year old Nick Madrigal may be listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, but his fantastic hit tool got him drafted fourth overall out of Oregon State as he and the Beavers went on to win the College World Series in 2018. He struck out just seven times in 42 games as a junior, then slashed .303/.353/.348 with eight stolen bases and a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games between complex ball, Kannapolis, and Winston-Salem for a total of 12 strikeouts in 85 games. He has some of the best bat to ball skills in all of minor league baseball, making it nearly impossible to get the ball by him and giving him plenty of opportunities to use his plus speed to get on base. Though he'll never be mistaken for a power hitter, Madrigal isn't completely punchless at the plate and could hit upwards of ten home runs per season in the majors to go along with plenty of doubles and triples, and he has true top of the order potential. Defensively, he's a natural at second base but could be able to stick as a shortstop if he can show enough arm strength, either way providing plenty of value on defense. Expect to see Madrigal up in the majors soon. The White Sox took 22 year old Steele Walker in the second round (46th overall) out of Oklahoma in the same 2018 draft, though he slashed just .209/.271/.342 with five home runs and a 37/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games between complex ball, rookie level Great Falls, and Kannapolis in his pro debut. Walker has a natural feel for the barrel and in college was able to make the whole greater than the sum of his parts, using his gritty mindset and high baseball IQ in his favor. That didn't translate in those first 44 games, so we'll have to see how he comes out in 2019 after plenty more pro coaching. Overall, it looks like a fourth outfield projection as he's nothing special on defense, but because of his reportedly strong work ethic, I wouldn't bet against him. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Burger missed the 2018 season with an achilles injury but is a good prospect to watch after having been drafted in the first round (eleventh overall) out of Missouri State in 2017, especially considering the White Sox' lack of infield depth. He's a power hitter with solid feel for the barrel as well, making him a good candidate to hit at the major league level. He's only so-so at third base but works hard on his defense and has a shot to stick there (though the achilles injury doesn't help), and a good season in 2019 could put him back on the radar as a potential middle of the order hitter.

Starting Pitchers: RHP Michael Kopech, RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Dane Dunning, LHP Kodi Medeiros, LHP Bernardo Flores, RHP A.J. Puckett, and RHP Jonathan Stiever
The White Sox have a lot of pitching depth, and because so many of their top pitching prospects are actually relievers, I'm splitting them along that line. Interestingly, most of their best starting pitching prospects actually came via trade, and they have done very well in that regard. We all know 22 year old Michael Kopech, the 6'3" right hander who posted a 3.70 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 170/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.1 innings at AAA Charlotte before posting a 5.02 ERA and a 15/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings in the majors. Acquired from Boston in the Chris Sale trade, Kopech unfortunately blew out his elbow in September and had to undergo Tommy John surgery, likely knocking him out for all of 2019. When healthy, the East Texan is most well known for his upper 90's, moving fastball that he can simply blow by even the best hitters. He also adds a great slider that misses a ton of bats, making him one of the toughest pitchers to face in minor league baseball. On the flip side, though, he struggles with his command and gets hit when he falls behind in the count or leaves his fastball over the plate, because as we all know, pro hitters can hit 100 MPH fastballs if they're middle-middle. The Tommy John surgery is obviously a huge setback that will make it all the more difficult for him to improve that command, but if he can, he has #2 starter or even possibly ace upside. We'll just have to wait until 2020. 23 year old Dylan Cease, over from the Cubs with Eloy Jimenez in the Jose Quintana trade, had a fantastic season in 2018 by going 12-2 with a 2.40 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 160/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings between High A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham. The 6'2" righty is actually a fairly similar prospect to Kopech, just not as extreme. He comfortably sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds an excellent curveball that, like Kopech's slider, misses a ton of bats. Also like Kopech, Cease struggles with command, though he is steadily coming along in that regard and the White Sox hope he can be average by the time he reaches the majors. Cease has #2 starter upside with a good shot at being at least a #3, and if all goes according to plan, he should make for a very good one-two punch with Kopech in the 2020's. 24 year old Dane Dunning, who came over from the Nationals in the Adam Eaton trade, posted a 2.71 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 100/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, proving to be a different kind of prospect than Kopech and Cease. He's a 6'4" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and changeup, though he commands everything much better than those guys. His stuff also plays up due to the deception in his funky delivery, though on the flip side he did miss time with elbow issues in 2018. If he can stay healthy, he has mid rotation upside, and the fact that he tossed 144 innings in 2017 does ease the durability questions. 22 year old Kodi Medeiros was acquired from the Brewers for Joakim Soria this past July, and he posted a 3.60 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 141/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings in AA. The former first round pick (12th overall out of a Hawaii high school in 2014) sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a great slider, though his control comes and goes because his cross-fire delivery is difficult to keep in sync. When he has everything going, though, that deception makes his pitches play up and helps him miss plenty of bats, and he has continued to work hard to get more consistent. The 6'2" lefty looks like a future #3 or #4 starter if everything breaks right, though the pitching depth in this system could end up forcing him to the bullpen, where I get the feeling he could be very, very good. 23 year old Bernardo Flores is an under the radar arm who posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 156 innings at Winston-Salem and Birmingham this year, and unlike the four names above him on this list, he was actually drafted by the White Sox (seventh round in 2016 out of Southern California). He typically sits in the low 90's with his fastball (though he has been as high as 97 in the past) with so-so breaking balls, adding a solid changeup and using his command to make everything play up. As a lefty without great stuff, he profiles as a #4 or #5 starter but could sneak up on some people because of his durability and feel for pitching. 23 year old A.J. Puckett came over from the Royals for Melky Cabrera in July and posted a 3.98 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 119/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings between the two High A affiliates. He throws in the low 90's and like Flores, adds a solid changeup despite a mediocre breaking ball, though his command is just a bit behind Flores' and he looks like a #5 starter or solid long reliever right now. Lastly, 21 year old Jonathan Stiever was a fifth round pick out of Indiana in 2018, then posted a 4.18 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 39/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings at rookie level Great Falls. Stiever is a 6'2" righty with a solid breaking ball and overall fairly advanced command, which is typical for those day two power-five college arms. He finished the season on a run of ten straight shutout innings (including the Pioneer League playoffs) and is a solid mid to back of the rotation arm to follow down lower in the minors.

Relievers: RHP Ian Hamilton, RHP Zack Burdi, RHP Jose Ruiz, RHP Alec Hansen, RHP Tyler Johnson, and RHP Lincoln Henzman
For all the talk about the White Sox' headlining prospects like Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, and Dylan Cease, the White Sox are actually really deep in relievers and should have a very solid homegrown bullpen in the future. 23 year old Ian Hamilton had a breakout year in 2018 and posted a 1.74 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 62/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.2 innings at AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, then put up a 4.50 ERA and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio in eight major league innings. He's a fastball-slider righty who sits in the mid 90's and misses his fair share of bats, though the slider isn't so devastating that he'll be putting up ridiculous strikeout numbers in the majors or anything. He profiles best as a solid seventh or eighth inning guy and has a good shot at the Opening Day roster. 23 year old Zack Burdi, a product of the same 2016 draft (26th overall out of Louisville), has the higher ceiling as a prospect but missed almost all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, returning in August to post a 2.84 ERA and a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 6.1 innings in complex ball rehab. He sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a hard slider and a good changeup, giving him multiple weapons to help that velocity play up even further. Had he not gotten hurt, he may have been a September call-up in 2017, and assuming he comes out firing and healthy in spring training, he also has a shot at the Opening Day roster. A healthy Burdi will likely be an impact reliever for the White Sox, perhaps even a closer. 24 year old Jose Ruiz is yet another fastball/slider righty, checking in with a 3.07 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 77/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at High A Winston-Salem and Birmingham followed by a 4.15 ERA and a 6/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 4.1 major league innings. Sitting in the mid 90's and adding a good slider, he's not quite the prospect that Hamilton and Burdi are, but he should contribute as a solid middle reliever in the near future. 24 year old Alec Hansen has had an absolute roller coaster of a career, looking like he had a shot at being the first overall pick in the 2016 draft before a poor junior season at Oklahoma dropped him to the second round, where the White Sox picked him up with the 49th overall pick. He then dominated the minors in 2016 (1.32 ERA, 81/20 K/BB) and 2017 (2.80 ERA, 191/51 K/BB), establishing himself as a potential impact starter, but it all fell apart again in 2018 after he missed time with forearm soreness and posted a 6.31 ERA, a 2.01 WHIP, and a 55/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings at Winston-Salem and Birmingham upon returning. Hansen has fantastic stuff with a mid 90's fastball, a couple of solid breaking balls, and a useable changeup from a 6'7" frame, but his command ranges anywhere from average on his best days to downright un-playable on his worst. Over a three start stretch from July 18th to July 29th, he walked 22 batters in 10.1 innings and was subsequently demoted from AA to High A, where he wasn't much better. Now 24, Hansen is at a bit of a crossroads and may have to be bumped from the rotation to the bullpen, where he could likely sit in the upper 90's and strike out hitters en masse if he can maintain any semblance of command. 23 year old Tyler Johnson, like Ian Hamilton, had a breakout season in 2018 and posted a 1.40 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an 89/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 innings at Class A Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, using his mid 90's fastball and good slider to miss plenty of bats against A ball hitters. Because he was facing mostly younger competition in 2018, we'll have to see how he fares in the upper minors in 2019, but he could be another seventh or eighth inning arm in the Chicago bullpen in the near future. Lastly, 23 year old Lincoln Henzman is a starter for now, having posted a 2.35 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an 80/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 107.1 innings at Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, like Johnson performing very well against mostly younger competition. Giving the starting pitching depth in this system and Henzman's lack of a reliable breaking ball, he may be forced to the bullpen down the road, currently working with a ground ball-inducing low to mid 90's fastball, a solid changeup, and a decent cutter, all of which he controls pretty well. How he fares against AA hitters and whether he proves he can handle a starter's workload in 2019 will likely determine whether he ends up a back-end starter or a solid middle reliever in the long run.

Friday, July 14, 2017

Cubs Add Quintana to Rotation

Cubs Get: Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.49 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 109/40 K/BB, Age 28)
White Sox Get: Eloy Jimenez (8 HR, 32 RBI, .271 AVG, 0 SB, 131 wRC+ at High Class A, Age 20)
Dylan Cease (1-2, 2.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 74/26 K/BB at Class A, Age 21)
Bryant Flete (6 HR, 37 RBI, .305 AVG, 4 SB, 117 wRC+ at High Class A, Age 24)
Matt Rose (14 HR, 38 RBI, .227 AVG, 0 SB, 105 wRC+ at High Class A, Age 22)

The Cubs struggled to a 43-45 record in the first half, but with one of the strongest rosters in baseball, they are still very much looking to contend this season. Due to a lackluster rotation that has seen pretty much every starter underperform, they added the young, controllable Jose Quintana in a deal with the cross-town White Sox. Quintana is under contract through the 2020 season for just over $30 million total, so he can help the team not just this year, but in 2018, 2019, and 2020. One of baseball's more underrated starters, he was one of the best pitchers in the American League in 2016, going 13-12 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, striking out 181 batters and walking just 50 in 208 innings. He hasn't been as good in 2017, going 4-8 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, but he has been turning things around as of late. He went 2-7 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over the first two months of the season, spanning eleven starts, but since the start of June, he is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, striking out 45 batters to just 12 walks in 40 innings over seven starts. In the Cubs current rotation, Jon Lester (5-6, 4.25 ERA), Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.35 ERA), John Lackey (5-9, 5.20 ERA), and Kyle Hendricks (4-3, 4.09 ERA) have all been disappointing, so the addition of Quintana will be very welcome. Eddie Butler (4-3, 3.88 ERA) actually leads Cubs starters in ERA, so it will be interesting how they decide to go about fitting Quintana into the rotation. For his career, the Colombia native is 50-54 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 172 games (169 starts), all with the White Sox.

To get three and a half years of a #2 starter, you're going to have to give up a fair amount, and the Cubs did just that. The White Sox, who already added top prospects Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dane Dunning, and Luis Alexander Basabe, among others, to their system via recent trades, got a few more here. Highlighting the return package is Eloy Jimenez, a 20 year old outfielder who could be a multi-category contributor in the majors. Always known for his potential, he had a breakout year at Class A South Bend in 2016 (.329/.369/.532, 14 HR) and was promoted to High Class A Myrtle Beach this year, where he was slashing .271/.351/.490 with eight home runs at the time of the trade. He'll be 20 for all of 2017, so he has plenty of time to develop into an impact player. Dylan Cease was a sixth round pick out of high school in 2014 after blowing out his elbow, but has developed into a solid starting pitching prospect, posting a career 2.58 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over parts of three minor league seasons. So far with Class A South Bend this year, he has a 2.79 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP through 13 starts, striking out 74 batters in 51.2 innings. The 6'2" righty won't turn 22 until after the season, and with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a power curveball, he has front of the rotation potential. While Jimenez and Cease are the clear headliners, second baseman Bryant Flete offers helps offer organizational depth for the Sox. Signed back in 2012 out of Venezuela, Flete's development hasn't gone in a straight line, as he reached AA in 2015 but spent most of 2016 at Class A and all of 2017 at High Class A. With Myrtle Beach this year, he slashed .305/.355/.425 with six home runs, flashing utility upside but ultimately not performing the way one would hope for a 24 year old. He has average tools across the board. Lastly, first baseman Matt Rose has shown some big power in the minors but has struggled with contact. An 11th round pick out of Georgia State in 2015, Rose slashed .227/.281/.481 with 14 home runs for High Class A Myrtle Beach this year, but he has struck out in 24.8% of his plate appearances while walking in just 5.9%. As he is, he won't make it to the major leagues on his power alone, but if he can improve his plate discipline, there is room for a guy who can walk and hit home runs. Right now, though, he doesn't walk.