This was a classic Mike Rizzo draft, with perhaps the only thing missing being an injured pitcher. He began the draft with a bang, taking the player with perhaps the loudest physical tools in the class and exactly the guy I wanted to see selected. From there, as usual, he pivoted to extreme caution, drafting more for present skill level than future projection aside from a few high school picks. I was a huge fan of the Elijah Green pick, but the rest is a bit underwhelming to me as a Nationals fan. Very few pitchers taken here have much life on their fastball, so even if many of them can reach back for 96-97 or better, virtually all of their fastballs play below that velocity and this organization is not very good at creating life in those instances. Interestingly, many of the pitchers drafted here instead rely on their ability to spin a breaking ball. For the most part, though, it was a position player-heavy class that featured five bats in the first six picks and 13/20 overall. Lastly, I will commend Rizzo for his willingness to spend not only the entire bonus pool, but to go over it by 5% and take on the penalties, which at that level are completely worthwhile. He spread the pool around in a very straightforward manner, paying exact slot value to seven of the first nine picks, taking nearly a $150,000 discount on tenth rounder Murphy Stehly, and spreading around the remaining money on fourth rounder Brenner Cox ($440,700 over), sixth rounder Nathaniel Ochoa Leyva ($66,100 over), eleventh rounder Luke Young ($125,000 over), and twelfth rounder Nick Peoples ($50,000 over).
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-5: OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #2.
Slot value: $6.5 million. Signing bonus: $6.5 million.
Far and away the Nationals' best pick in this draft, I would have taken Elijah Green in this spot too and he comes with just massive upside. Elijah's father, Eric, played college football in Nationals territory at Liberty University before embarking on a ten year NFL career that included stops with the Steelers, Dolphins, Ravens, and Jets in the 90's. To say that that athleticism was passed down to Elijah would be an understatement, as the younger Green has some of the most explosive tools in the entire draft class. Strongly built at 6'3", he easily taps his true plus power in games with a big, healthy uppercut, but he's so strong that he can stay perfectly under control and still crush the ball naturally. He doesn't need to sell out at all to tap that power, which is important because his hit tool is a little more in question. Green swung and missed a fair amount on the showcase circuit, then really struggled early in his senior year at IMG Academy and looked like he may fall out of the top ten picks. However, he righted the ship in a very big way in the second half of the season, and by the time the draft rolled around, he had completely reclaimed his status as arguably the top player in the class. The Orlando-area native will likely always be a bit streaky, but when he's going well, there is no hitter in this class with more upside. And he can look to both a former and current teammate for guidance, too. As a junior, Green played in the same IMG Academy outfield as James Wood, who also struggled his senior year against IMG's extremely difficult schedule. Wood, like Green a potential top ten pick entering the season, never turned his season around and fell to the Padres in the second round, and you probably know the rest by now. He did nothing but hit in the Padres' system and was, in my opinion, the centerpiece in the return for Juan Soto. Green has the luxury of already having turned in the right direction before he hit pro ball, and those two will be a ton of fun to watch hit together. Now I've spent all this time on Green's bat, and I haven't even mentioned his other tools. In addition to showing potential 40 home run power, he is a plus-plus runner that could have been drafted for his speed alone, flying around the bases and the outfield. Throw in a plus-plus arm that can stop runners in their tracks, and Green could win Gold Gloves in center field. The Nationals have a few prospects, notably Wood, Robert Hassell, and Jeremy De La Rosa, who are trying to stick in center, but I think Green will be the one to push them out. There is just so much upside here it's unbelievable, but he will have to manage those strikeouts and unfortunately if anything will unravel his ascent to stardom, that will be it. He showcased exactly what kind of player he is in his Florida Complex League debut, slashing .302/.404/.535 with two home runs and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games, good for a 40.4% strikeout rate.
2-45: RHP Jake Bennett, Oklahoma. My rank: #87.
Slot value: $1.73 million. Signing bonus: $1.73 million.
I came away impressed with Jake Bennett in his start against Virginia Tech in the Blacksburg Super Regional, and given that he fits what Mike Rizzo looks for in a pitcher, I thought he would make sense for the Nationals in the third round. Rizzo popped him a round earlier than that, which doesn't surprise me, looking to get a safe back-end starter that can move through the system quickly. Bennett joins former Oklahoma pitchers Jake Irvin and Cade Cavalli as well as former Oklahoma catcher Brady Lindsly, and interestingly enough, he actually played high school ball with Cavalli as well. After a so-so sophomore year, Bennett broke out in a big way in 2022, posting a 3.69 ERA and a 133/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings, with those 117 innings leading all of Division I baseball. So yeah, you could say he's a workhorse. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets up to about 96, coming in with average movement that won't miss many bats on its own. He flips in a short slider that functions as a solid average pitch, while his above average changeup is easily his best pitch right now. The Tulsa-area native commands both his fastball and his offspeeds extremely well and that's probably his most impressive attribute, effectively working his pitches off of each other to make them all play up. He's listed at 6'6", 235 pounds and looks it, with big, broad shoulders and a very durable looking frame that should lend itself extremely well to starting. I expect him to move quickly through the farm system and be up in the majors with Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, and Cade Cavalli soon, though because he only has one above average pitch and I don't expect him to develop another, his ceiling is likely limited as a #4 starter.
3-84: 3B Trey Lipscomb, Tennessee. My rank: #137.
Slot value: $758,900. Signing bonus: $758,900.
Trey Lipscomb gives the Nationals a hometown pick, having grown up in Frederick, Maryland about forty miles northwest of Washington and having played high school ball one town closer in Urbana. He played three years at Tennessee and got into just 37 games in total, but finally cracked the starting lineup in his fourth year and never looked back, slashing .355/.428/.717 with 22 home runs and a 37/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. His numbers were aided by Tennessee's hitter-friendly home park, but you still don't hit like that in the SEC unless you're doing something very right. Lipscomb doesn't have a carrying tool, but brings a lot to the table. He has a simple swing from the right side that keeps the barrel in the zone for a long time, helping him consistently tap his above average raw power in games and do damage to all fields. He rarely strikes out, making plenty of contact on pitches all over the zone, giving him a very well-rounded offensive profile that could produce 15-20 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages at his ceiling. With above average defense at third base, there aren't many holes in his game overall. Lipscomb did turn 22 in June and I'm not sold on the power playing with wood bats, so that will be something to watch going forward. He should move rather quickly and could challenge for that third base role sooner rather than later, and he's already slashing .280/.280/.420 with one home run and an 11/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games at Low A Fredericksburg.
4-111: OF Brenner Cox, Rock Hill HS [TX]. My rank: #209.
Slot value: $549,300. Signing bonus: $1 million ($440,700 above slot value).
This was a bit of an unexpected pick, as Brenner Cox ranked #219 on Prospects Live, #351 on Baseball America, and was not ranked in MLB Pipeline's top 250, so my ranking of #209 was actually his best showing. I went to a Rock Hill High School baseball game this spring because it is ten minutes from my apartment and because it was the closest Mets first round pick Jett Williams would be playing to me, and a Rock Hill parent pointed Cox out to me to keep an eye on. He's a great athlete, looking like a natural on both sides of the ball with smooth actions and a wiry, projectable 6'3" frame. A plus runner, he makes things happen on the bases and in the outfield, where he projects to stick in center field with an above average arm that has touched 93 on the mound. Well, now that the Nationals have acquired James Wood and Robert Hassell and drafted Elijah Green in addition to Cox, they're suddenly deep in center field prospects (you can throw Jeremy De La Rosa in that mix as well), but Cox does have the skillset to profile there. At the plate, he shows off a short, simple swing from the left side of the plate that is geared for line drives at present, taking good at bats and making plenty of contact. It's certainly a projection play, as the Dallas-area native has fringy power for now while he waits to grow into that tall frame. The Nationals will want to get him bulked up in the weight room, and in time he could tap average or better power. While the hit tool is a strength, it's not as proven as some other names in this class, and that's why he wasn't as famous as most others drafted in this range. The Nationals clearly believe in both the hit tool and the power coming along in pro ball, as they went more than $400,000 above slot value to sign him away from a Texas commitment. In a brief look in the Florida Complex League, he looked good and slashed .286/.366/.400 with one home run and a 14/5 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games.
5-141: OF Jared McKenzie, Baylor. My rank: #180.
Slot value: $410,500. Signing bonus: $410,500.
The Nationals are buying low on Jared McKenzie, who has been trending in the wrong direction for some time now. He hit the ground running at Baylor and slashed .389/.453/.583 with just a 13% strikeout rate over his first two seasons, setting himself up on the fringes of the first round conversation. However, he really struggled to make an impact in the Cape Cod League and slashed just .225/.316/.245 with a 31% strikeout rate there, putting pressure on his junior campaign. 2022 wound up being up and down, as he slumped to start the season before finding his footing a little bit and slashing .288/.388/.517 with eleven home runs and a 64/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. It was nice to see him find that power stroke as the season went on, but the strikeout rate never came down and he finished at 26.3%, more than double his first two seasons. McKenzie has a wide setup at the plate and gets his barrel long through the zone, with great feel to find that barrel and make hard contact to all fields. He got a little too power conscious in 2022 and got away from his approach, but the innate ability to control the strike zone and send balls to the gaps with regularity is there. He has real power to the pull side and hit one ball 489 feet against Kansas this year, though I'm not quite sold on how well it will play in pro ball with wood bats. The Austin-area native will definitely need to find that balanced approach in pro ball, and he likely projects for about 10-15 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, with a chance for better if he recaptures his underclass form and finds a way to make the power play up. Defensively, he won't challenge Elijah Green, Brenner Cox, and co. for center field, as he runs well but doesn't have a great arm and may end up in left. To me it's a fourth outfield projection with more variability than you'd typically find in a college bat. He's striking out a ton but is still making an impact early in his pro career, slashing .357/.379/.679 with one home run and a 14/0 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games at Low A Fredericksburg.
6-171: 3B Nathaniel Ochoa Leyva, Notre Dame Catholic HS [ON]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $308,900. Signing bonus: $375,000 ($66,100 above slot value).
This was an under the radar signing, as Nathaniel Ochoa Leyva went unranked on MLB Pipeline's top 250, Baseball America's top 500, and Prospects Lives' top 600. It still required a slight over slot bonus to sign him away from an Alabama commitment, where the Nationals will work to refine what is a fairly raw skill set for now. Ochoa Leyva is a big, physical kid at 6'4", showing a big league body with long limbs and plenty of space to tack on strength. He has explosive hands that further portend to future power gains, though he is a ways away. The Toronto-area native makes plenty of contact in the zone and lays off bad fastballs, but does struggle to recognize spin and pitchers will attack that in pro ball. It's understandable coming from a cold weather area like Toronto, but will require work. He lacked much impact in the MLB Draft League and slashed .224/.354/.269 in 31 games there, though he did show off that patient approach with a healthy 14.6% walk rate. He has played plenty of shortstop in high school and in the MLB Draft League but the Nationals drafted him as a third baseman, and I can't comment further since I haven't seen any video of his defense. Ochoa Leyva will require patience but brings upside as a power hitting third baseman down the line. In six games in the Florida Complex League, he hit .167/.375/.167 with eight strikeouts to five walks.
7-201: RHP Riley Cornelio, Texas Christian. My rank: #206.
Slot value: $241,600. Signing bonus: $241,600.
Riley Cornelio has been a known draft commodity for a while. He earned top three round interest in 2019 out of high school, but made it to campus at TCU where he was again draft eligible as a sophomore in 2021. However, he struggled to throw strikes and earn innings in that deep Horned Frogs pitching staff and threw just 17.2 innings over his first two seasons, so he returned to school in 2022 to earn more exposure. While he certainly got it, the results were more good than great, and he finished with a 4.68 ERA and a 77/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 innings in the rotation. There were ups, such as a run of five straight quality starts to open Big 12 play and drop his season ERA to 2.87, and there were downs, including his next two starts in which he allowed eleven earned runs over 3.1 innings against Oklahoma State and Florida State. Cornelio has big stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball as a starter and touching as high as 99 in relief, though the pitch can be fairly straight. His best pitch is a deep, downer slider that helps him rack up strikeouts and miss plenty of bats, and he also uses a fringier curveball and changeup to keep hitters off balance. Back in high school, the Colorado Springs native had a bit of a wild delivery with a lot of moving parts, but he's cleaned that up considerably in Fort Worth. His command is still fringy, but it's a lot better than it was and that helped him stick in the rotation for the year. The 6'3" righty is trending in the right direction even if he's already 22, and the Nationals see a late bloomer who may be able to make it work as a starter if he can take a step forward with his curveball or changeup as well as continue improving his command. Personally, I see more of a reliever here that can pitch off his fastball/slider combination and run the former into the upper 90's more often, where it won't need to rely on movement as much.
8-231: RHP Chance Huff, Georgia Tech. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $191,700. Signing bonus: $191,700.
Chance Huff has another classic Nationals pitching profile with power stuff, a big frame, and some track record in a big conference. He began his career at Vanderbilt, but walked 16 batters in 18.1 innings as a freshman in 2019 and didn't pitch in the shortened 2020 season. He transferred to Georgia Tech as a junior, where he had a 9.99 ERA mostly out of the bullpen in 2021, but got his shot in the rotation in 2022 and took a step forward with a 6.98 ERA and a much more impressive 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.1 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 98 in shorter stints, though it lacks life and plays well below its velocity. His real skill is his ability to spin the breaking ball, showing both a curve and a slider that flash plus with late, tight bite that helps him miss plenty of bats. There is a changeup in there, but it's a fourth pitch for now. The 6'4" righty is big and durable, and now having cleaned up his command to average, he does have a chance to start. To do so, he'll either need to take a step forward with his changeup and pitch heavily off his offspeed stuff, or he'll need to find a way to add some life to his fastball. The Nationals are one of the worst organizations in the league at the latter, so unless he can do it on his own, focusing on that changeup is probably the way to go. As a senior sign, the Florida Panhandle native did turn 22 in April, and he allowed one run over 3.2 innings in the Florida Complex League, striking out four and walking one.
9-261: C Maxwell Romero Jr., Miami. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $165,700. Signing bonus: $165,700.
Like Chance Huff, Maxwell Romero also began his career at Vanderbilt, and he rode the bench with Huff during that shortened 2020 season as neither got into a game. Huff left for Georgia Tech in 2021 while Romero stayed behind, where he got limited playing time behind A's 2021 fifth rounder CJ Rodriguez, and then transferred to Miami for 2022 and slashed .272/.378/.507 with 12 home runs and a 67/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. He's a big time power bat that can really smoke the ball and elevate with authority, with an uppercut swing and a very thick, strong 6'1" frame. He's mostly a mistake hitter, punishing pitchers who leave stuff over the plate, so a little game planning can often be effective against him. In the Cape Cod League, where he faced elite pitching every day, he slashed a very respectable .264/.327/.495 with five home runs in 27 games, but also struck out at a 29.7% rate. Pro pitching may be a bit of a transition for him as he learns how to tap his power against pitches outside his wheelhouse. The Miami-area native goes to a no-stride approach with two strikes, though it often comes at the expense of impact at the plate. Defensively, he stands out for a strong throwing arm that will help control the running game, with decent but improving glovework. He should be able to stick behind the plate, but if he can't, it may be tough for his bat to profile at first base or a corner outfield spot with below average speed. He's off to a slow start at Low A Fredericksburg, slashing .133/.235/.133 with nine strikeouts to two walks through five games.
11-321: RHP Luke Young, Midland JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($125,000 against bonus pool).
It's a long, lonely road from San Angelo to Midland out in West Texas, a world away from the constant Five O'Clock 500 that is I-495. Luke Young, though, has a chance to thrive inside the Beltway and I think he's the Nationals' best sleeper in this draft. He pitched very well as a sophomore out at Midland JC, posting a 3.95 ERA and a 110/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings against very solid Texas JuCo competition. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96 consistently, with better life than the typical Nationals draftee. Young can really spin a breaking ball, working with both a downer curveball and a sweepier slider that look like future above average pitches. He'll need to tighten them up and get a little more consistent, but the foundation is there. I haven't seen much of a changeup to this point. There is some stabbing action in the back of his delivery and he throws with some effort, but the San Angelo native fills up the strike zone well and projects for at least average command. At a listed 6'3", 170 pounds, he also has plenty of projection remaining and could add even more velocity. It's a fun profile to work with and he comes with some upside as a mid-rotation starter, and given that he won't turn 21 until October, there is plenty of time to develop.
12-351: OF Nick Peoples, Northview HS [CA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
There is some real upside here, but it will take time to reach. Nick Peoples is a big, tall, switch hitting outfielder that signed away from a New Mexico State commitment for $50,000 above the day three allotment. Standing 6'5", he has long arms and legs that help him put considerable leverage on the ball, showing off true plus power that produces some towering shots to the pull side. His swing is cleaner and more direct from the left side, but he can still really crush a ball from the right side. There is some swing and miss in his game that will take time to iron out, but switch hitters often develop slower anyways and given that he's young for a high school senior, having turned 18 after the draft, there is plenty of time to get it figured out. He's also a good runner that will attempt center field, though the Nats are fairly crowded there. The Southern California native represents a long term wild card for the Nationals' player developments system that could pay off some time around 2026-2027.
13-381: RHP Marquis Grissom Jr., Georgia Tech. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unspecified.
Any legacy Expos fans out there? In 1988, the franchise drafted Marquis Grissom in the third round out of Florida A&M, who stuck with Montreal through the 1994 season and eventually hit 227 home runs and stole 429 bases over a 17 year career. 34 years after the Expos drafted Grissom, they took his son in the thirteenth round and will hope for similar success, albeit on the mound. The younger Marquis Grissom was a well-known draft name out of high school in 2020, but made it to campus at Georgia Tech after the shortened draft and was eligible again as a sophomore. He never quite put it together in Atlanta, posting a 5.69 ERA and an 88/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings in his two years, but the underlying ability and bloodlines make him an intriguing prospect. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has been up to 97, though like many other pitchers in this Nationals class it's pretty straight. His best quality is his ability to spin a breaking ball, with a slider that shows sweeping action at times and more vertical break at others. Grissom also adds a changeup, rounding out his arsenal. The 6'2" righty throws with some effort and his command can get very scattered, pointing to a future in the bullpen. There he can potentially approach the upper 90's with his fastball and get more consistent bite on his slider, and as a draft eligible sophomore who only turned 21 just after the draft, he has a little extra time to figure things out. In 3.2 innings in the Florida Complex League, he allowed two runs (one earned) while striking out and walking two apiece.
14-411: SS Cortland Lawson, Tennessee. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Trey Lipscomb and Cortland Lawson are following an eerily similar career path. Both grew up northwest of Washington, both headed to Tennessee for college and barely played until this year, both broke out in 2022 and started nearly every game on the left side of the Tennessee infield, and now both are with their hometown Nationals. Indeed, while Lipscomb grew up in Frederick and might consider the Orioles more his hometown team, Lawson grew up in the Loudoun County suburb of Potomac Falls about twenty miles northwest of the city on Route 7 and attended Paul VI High School in Fairfax, then Dominion High School back in Potomac Falls. He didn't get into a game in the shortened 2020 season and made just two starts in 2021, but slashed .269/.402/.512 with 12 home runs and a 65/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games in 2022 as Tennessee's starting shortstop. Lawson does not have a carrying tool, rather doing a lot of things well. He has some moderate power from a wiry 6'2" frame and can do damage to all fields, adding up to fringe average or perhaps even average power. He works a lot of deep counts and worked an impressive 16.4% walk rate in 2022, but he also struck out 25.4% of the time and that number jumped to 29.8% in SEC conference play, where he hit just .210/.344/.370. There are real questions about his hit tool, and there isn't quite enough power in there to buy him much slack. A solid defender that can play all over the field, he profiles as a utility infielder if he makes enough contact to tap his power. Though he's in his third year of college, he's actually older than the fourth year Lipscomb and already turned 22 back in May. Playing alongside Lipscomb once again at Low A Fredericksburg, he's slashing .130/.286/.261 with one home run and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games.
15-441: RHP Kyle Luckham, Arizona State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Kyle Luckham began his career at Cal State Fullerton and spent most of his three years there in the rotation with middling results, then transferred to Arizona State as a senior and put up a 4.36 ERA and a 72/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings. They're not spectacular numbers, but he did lead an injury-riddled Sun Devil pitching staff in innings pitched by nearly twenty and that unremarkable looking 4.36 ERA was the lowest of any pitcher who threw more than three innings on the season. He sits in the low 90's with a fastball that shows average movement, but he has great feel to spin a breaking ball and can miss bats with his curveball and slider. A changeup rounds out the arsenal, and his funky delivery helps make everything play perhaps a tick better than its movement and velocity dictate. Given his durability and propensity for filling up the strike zone, the Nationals could get creative with Luckham to keep him in the rotation. Either an extra tick of velocity, some added life to his fastball, or an improved changeup, in addition to better pitch usage to get away from that fastball, could help the 6'2" righty sneak up as a back-end starter. I imagine he could move fairly quickly and get onto that back-and-forth shuttle between Rochester and Washington soon, though the ceiling is very limited here. Indeed, he has already taken well to pro ball and has thrown six shutout innings on just one hit, one walk, and six strikeouts between the Florida Complex League and Low A Fredericksburg, the only pitcher in the Nationals draft class to pitch above the FCL so far.
