While the Braves, Rays, White Sox, and Blue Jays might be able to give the Padres a run for their money, it's pretty easy to pick San Diego as having the top farm system in baseball. They have the headliner (Fernando Tatis Jr.), a supporting cast of impact hitters (Luis Urias, Francisco Mejia, Josh Naylor), and plenty of pitching depth (led by MacKenzie Gore, Logan Allen, Chris Paddack), making it no surprise that Manny Machado was willing to sign there despite the lack of recent success (though I'm sure the weather didn't hurt). In an overview sense, there's not much else to say except that this system is loaded in every way.
Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA San Antonio Missions*, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, Short Season Tri-City Dust Devils, and complex level AZL and DSL Padres
*AA affiliate will move from San Antonio, TX to Amarillo, TX in 2019
The Headliner: SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
20 year old Fernando Tatis Jr., the son of former major leaguer Fernando Tatis, besides having a great birthday that also happens to be mine (January 2nd crew), is the only other player that can really give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a run for his money as the top prospect in the game right now. As a teenager in 2018, Tatis slashed .286/.355/.507 with 16 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA San Antonio, putting up great numbers despite watching his season end with a thumb injury in July. He's already a complete player who does everything well, showing power, the ability to get on base, speed, and strong defense at shortstop, all at a very young age. I'm not concerned about the higher than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio because Tatis was just 19 years old in AA, and he barrels the ball up consistently enough that it won't be a problem in the majors in 2019. Set to play all of this season at just 20 years old, he should be a strong candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year Award as he looks to fulfill his projections as a 20+ homer bat with high on-base percentages, double digit stolen bases, and great defense: a perennial All Star projection.
High Minors Hitters: 2B Luis Urias, C/OF Francisco Mejia, 3B Jason Vosler, OF Josh Naylor, C/1B Austin Allen, OF Buddy Reed, and 3B Hudson Potts
The Padres are deeper in pitching, but I'll start with the upper level hitters behind Fernando Tatis Jr. who are set to make an impact in the very near future. 21 year old Luis Urias slashed .296/.398/.447 with eight home runs and a 109/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AAA El Paso, then slashed .208/.264/.354 with a pair of home runs and a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 major league games. At 5'9", he doesn't hit for much power, but Urias is a steady singles hitter who draws plenty of walks, avoids strikeouts for the most part, and overall projects to post high on-base percentages. He should be a steady producer for years to come. 23 year old Francisco Mejia is a very well known prospect, having been the top prospect in the Indians' system before he was traded to San Diego in the Brad Hand trade. Mejia slashed .293/.338/.471 with 14 home runs and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AAA, also slashing .179/.258/.375 with three home runs and a 19/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 21 major league games. Mejia has high upside but also comes with plenty of questions, as he is a very solid hitter who can consistently barrel the ball up and spray deep line drives and home runs all over the park, though he is unproven at the major league level despite all his success in the high minors. Defensively, the Padres continue to be hopeful that he can stick as a catcher with his cannon arm, but his defense overall is just so-so. There is a chance he ends up in the outfield or even at third base, where he is also just so-so, but his potential for 15-20 home runs annually and high on-base percentages means that the Padres will be very patient. 25 year old Jason Vosler, who was acquired from the Cubs this offseason, looks like more of a bench bat after slashing .251/.330/.467 with 23 home runs and a 149/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at AA and AAA in 2018. He has power and draws a lot of walks, but he likely won't hit for enough average to ever warrant a starting position, especially with Manny Machado now blocking him at third base. He's an average defensive infielder and will warrant consideration as a power hitting pinch hitter. Dropping down a level, 21 year old Josh Naylor projects to be an impact hitter at the major league level. In 2018, Naylor slashed .297/.383/.447 with 17 home runs and a 69/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA San Antonio, showing some power and great plate discipline. A stocky guy at 5'11" and 250 pounds, you'd expect more power out of Naylor, but his keen eye at the plate and high on-base percentages make up for that and he should hit his way into the starting lineup down the line. Defensively, he doesn't provide much value, playing an average first base and a mediocre left field, but at this point the bat looks like it is enough to carry him. 25 year old Austin Allen finds himself in a somewhat similar position, coming off a 2018 where he slashed .290/.351/.506 with 22 home runs and a 97/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at San Antonio. While Naylor has better plate discipline, the 6'2" Allen has shown more power at this point (keep in mind that Naylor is nearly three and a half years younger) and has the defensive edge because he *might* be able to stick as a catcher. His defense there is mediocre and he just turned 25 in January, but the Padres still hope to refine him to the point where he is playable back there and his power can help him be a bat-first catcher. If he is forced to move to first base, he's still a strong enough hitter that he should be able to stick on a roster and even earn some starts. 23 year old Buddy Reed has had a roller coaster ride for a career, looking like a potential top ten pick for the 2016 draft before an up and down junior season at Florida knocked him to the second round (48th overall), then he struggled in pro ball in both 2016 (.254/.326/.337) and 2017 (.234/.290/.396). However, he turned it around in 2018, slashing .271/.319/.435 with 13 home runs, 51 stolen bases, and a 147/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. He was much better at hitter-friendly Lake Elsinore (.324/.371/.549) than he was at much more pitcher-friendly San Antonio (.179/.227/.235), which raises questions about his ability to hit at the major league level, but he still retains high upside despite turning 24 in April. Reed is exceptionally fast and plays great defense in center field, plus his wiry frame helps him hit for some power at the plate. However, if he wants to end up more than just a fourth outfielder/defensive replacement, he really has to improve his plate discipline in a hurry. Lastly, 20 year old Hudson Potts was actually the Padres first round pick (24th overall, then known as Hudson Sanchez) out of a Dallas area high school in that same 2016 draft, and he slashed .260/.335/.455 with 19 home runs and a 145/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games between Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. Like Reed, he was much better at Lake Elsinore (.281/.350/.498) than he was at San Antonio (.154/.258/.231), though being three and a half years younger does buy him slack. He has some power and at 6'3", he looks like he could grow into more, and while he strikes out a lot, he has been young for the levels he has played at and does possess an advanced bat. Potts isn't a great defender at third base but isn't a liability either, and he is somewhat of a sleeper in the deep system he plays in. Watch for Potts to draw more attention in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Edward Olivares, OF Tirso Ornelas, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, C Luis Campusano, SS Xavier Edwards, and 2B Tucupita Marcano
The best hitters in the Padres' system are up near the top, but they have a whole group of young guys in the low and mid minors that could break out and join that group in 2019. 22 year old Edward Olivares, acquired from the Blue Jays for Yangervis Solarte last offseason, looks like a solid fourth outfielder after slashing .277/.321/.429 with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 102/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at hitter-friendly High A Lake Elsinore in 2018. Olivares is a speedy centerfielder known for his great outfield defense, adding a very good feel for the barrel and plenty of gap power at the plate to round out his skill set. Overall, the bat is likely just a little too light if he wants to be a long-term starter in the majors, but with the ability to post solid on-base percentages and quite a few extra base hits, he should be a very useful fourth outfielder. 18 year old Tirso Ornelas, who grew up right across the border from San Diego in Tijuana, burst onto the scene in 2018 by slashing .252/.341/.392 with eight home runs and a 68/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 games at Class A Fort Wayne. Those numbers might not pop off the page, but Ornelas just turned 18 right before the start of the season and managed very respectable numbers against full season competition (most notably an 11.3% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate). In addition to his very mature approach at the plate, he has room to grow into more power at 6'3" and is a prime candidate for an offensive breakout in the hitter-friendly High A California League in 2019. Defensively, the teenager should be a solid right fielder. 19 year old Jeisson Rosario has a similar profile, having slashed .271/.368/.353 with three home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 108/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. He's also very young, just five months older than Ornelas, and he also has a very patient approach at the plate that allows him to draw plenty of walks. He might strike out a bit more and he doesn't have quite as much power, but he's faster and also has an advanced bat for his age. Ornelas is the better prospect at this point but it will be interesting to see Rosario develop alongside him in the outfield. 19 year old Gabriel Arias slashed .240/.302/.352 with six home runs and a 149/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games with Fort Wayne, and like Ornelas and Rosario, he was extremely young for the level. While his bat isn't as developed as Ornelas's or even Rosario's, he's the best defender in the group with a slick glove and a strong arm at shortstop, buying his bat plenty of time to develop. He has some gap power at this point and isn't afraid to draw a walk, so he has the building blocks to eventually build himself into a starting-caliber shortstop down the road. (though Fernando Tatis Jr. might have something to say about that). 20 year old Luis Campusano was a second round pick (39th overall) out of an Augusta, Georgia high school in 2017, then he slashed .288/.345/.365 with three home runs and a 43/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. Known for his power as a high schooler, that hasn't quite translated into pro ball, but catchers take longer to develop and his .345 on-base percentage was still encouraging. He's a work in progress defensively but shows the tools to be above average in that regard, and if he starts tapping into his raw power more consistently, he could give the Padres a third legitimate catcher behind Francisco Mejia and Austin Allen. Moving farther down in the system, the Padres have a couple of short season bats to replace the big crew graduating from Class A in 2018. 19 year old Xavier Edwards was a competitive balance pick (38th overall) in 2018 out of a South Florida high school, and he slashed .346/.453/.409 with 22 stolen bases and a 25/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and short season Tri-City in his pro debut. Those numbers were exactly in line with what was expected from Edwards, as he brings great plate discipline and feel for the barrel along with lots of speed and defensive value. Because he lacks power, it's important that he continues to spray line drives into the gaps and draw his share of walks. Defensively, he is so-so at shortstop but would be a well above average defender at second base. Overall, he has the makings of a prototypical leadoff man. Lastly, 19 year old Tucupita Marcano, who was apparently named for his hometown of Tucupita, Venezuela, slashed .366/.450/.438 with one home run, 15 stolen bases, and a 16/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in complex ball and at Tri-City. Marcano tore up the complex level Arizona League (.395/.497/.444) but was also strong in short season ball (.314/.355/.429) despite not turning 19 until after the season, showing advanced plate discipline and the ability to make consistent hard contact. He's a decent middle infielder who may be forced from shortstop to second base, but with his potential to post very high on-base percentages, his defense may not matter and 2019 could be the year he really establishes himself in this system.
High Minors Pitchers: LHP Logan Allen, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Jacob Nix, RHP Chris Paddack, and RHP Lake Bachar
The Padres' great wealth of arms is scattered pretty evenly throughout the system, which means that there are a couple of true impact arms knocking on the door right now even after 2016 draftees Eric Lauer (first round from Kent State) and Joey Lucchesi (fourth round from Southeast Missouri State) graduated in 2018. 21 year old Logan Allen, who came over from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel trade of 2015, has dominated the minor leagues and put up a huge season in 2018, going 14-6 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 151/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.2 innings at AA San Antonio and AAA El Paso. The 6'3" lefty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondaries, though only his changeup can be considered a swing and miss pitch. Instead of blowing the ball by hitters, Allen finds success by mixing his pitches and maintaining his stuff deep into ballgames, giving him a pretty clear #3 or #4 starter projection with fairly low risk. He should be able to hold down a major league rotation spot for most or all of 2019. 24 year old Cal Quantrill is a Canadian righty out of Stanford who was a first round pick (eighth overall in 2016), though he had an up and down 2018 and posted a 4.80 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 123/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings between San Antonio and El Paso. Quantrill, like Allen, is a pitchability guy who only throws in the low to mid 90's but who adds a full array of secondaries headlined by a great changeup. He has better command than Allen but has less deception in his delivery and doesn't get as many strikeouts, and that command does come and go. When he's on, though, he looks fantastic; on June 3rd, he struck out ten over seven shutout innings against the AA Springfield Cardinals, allowing just five baserunners along the way. Quantrill is going to need his command to be "on" more than it's "off" in the majors, where he could be a very solid #3 starter but who could slip back to a #4 or a #5 if he can't get more consistent. To wrap up the Allen/Quantrill comparison: Allen is almost two and a half years younger than Quantrill and is consistently average with his command, while Quantrill fluctuates anywhere from average to above average in that regard. However, as a lefty, Allen gets more deception on his stuff and can get away with that average command. 23 year old Jacob Nix, who was caught up in the Brady Aiken draft mess of 2014 with the Astros, was the Padres' third round pick (86th overall) in 2016 and pitched well in the high minors in 2018, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 44/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at San Antonio and El Paso. However, he struggled in a brief MLB call-up with a 7.02 ERA and a 21/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings, so he'll try again in 2019. Nix is a 6'4" righty with a straight, low to mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a decent changeup, and he does a very good job of throwing strikes in general. Sometimes he can be a little bit too much over the plate, which led to him allowing eight home runs in nine major league starts in 2018, but a few further tweaks in his command could make him a solid #4 starter in the near future. Moving down a level, 23 year old Chris Paddack had as big a bounce-back season as you can have in 2018, posting a 2.10 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 120/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio a year after missing all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery. Paddack now has a 1.82 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and a 230/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 177.2 career minor league innings since being drafted in the eighth round out of an Austin-area high school by the Marlins in 2015, as he has showcased exceptional command to go along with a low 90's fastball, a mediocre curveball, and a fantastic changeup that serves as a true swing and miss pitch. Paddack has some stiff competition for rotation spots to deal with in the near future, so the Padres can be patient with him and help him build his stamina back up after throwing just 132.1 innings from 2016-2018, but after that he could be a very useful mid-rotation starter. Lastly, 23 year old Lake Bachar posted a 4.68 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an 80/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings at Lake Elsinore and San Antonio, though those stats don't count two strong appearances in the AA Texas League playoffs (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K). His stuff isn't great, but he has a full array of secondary pitches and commands everything decently well, also getting good deception with his high three quarters arm angle. He's unlikely to stick in the rotation in a system as deep as this one, but he could be a useful long reliever in the near future.
Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Michel Baez, LHP Adrian Morejon, RHP Andres Munoz, RHP Reggie Lawson, LHP Nick Margevicius, and RHP David Bednar
Behind the group knocking on the door to the MLB, the Padres have another wave of talent who just came through High A. 23 year old Michel Baez was signed out of Cuba for $3 million two offseasons ago, and after a dominant stateside debut in 2017 (2.54 ERA, 89/10 K/BB), he continued the good work in 2018 by posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA San Antonio. He's a huge guy at 6'8", which makes his mid 90's fastball and full arsenal of secondaries very difficult to square up. He hasn't been the most consistent pitcher, sometimes losing his command and seeing his fastball dip into the low 90's, but Baez has the makings of a #2 or #3 starter with just a few more tweaks in his mechanics. Otherwise, he should fare just fine as an impact reliever if he can't get more consistent with his stuff. 20 year old Adrian Morejon is another Cuban who signed for $11 million back in 2016, and he had a strong season by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at Lake Elsinore (with one rehab appearance in complex ball). He's a very different pitcher from Baez in that he's just six feet tall and left handed, but he still brings the heat with a mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a couple of changeups, and he has been more consistent with his stuff despite being three years younger. Durability is an issue for a smaller guy like Morejon, and the missed time in 2018 didn't help alleviate those worries. If healthy, Morejon looks like a potential #2 starter, but that's always a big "if" and we'll have to see how he fares in 2019. Further durability issues could push him to the bullpen, where he should be very strong. 20 year old Andres Munoz had a breakout season in 2018, posting a 0.73 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings between short season Tri-City and San Antonio, managing to pitch very well in AA as a teenager. He's purely a reliever and is an absolute flamethrower, sitting in the upper 90's with his fastball and adding an up and coming slider, though he struggles with control and needs to prove his durability as well. Now healthy in 2019, Munoz has a chance to improve that control, and if he can further improve his slider (he'll be just 20 for all of 2019), he has a shot to be a major league closer. 21 year old Reggie Lawson survived the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, posting a 4.69 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 117/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" righty isn't of the same prospect caliber as Baez and Morejon, but he shows a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball to go along with some durability and projectability, giving him the chance to be a #4 starter if he can improve his command a little. If not, his fastball/curveball combination should play well in the bullpen anyways, and he'll get a crack at AA in 2019. 22 year old Nick Margevicius raised some eyebrows in 2018 with his strong season, posting a 3.60 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 146/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. He's a 6'5" lefty with great command, and even though he barely sits in the low 90's with his fastball, he gets plenty of strikeouts by getting ahead in the count and dropping his great changeup on opposing hitters. The Padres have had great success with Chris Paddack, the right handed version of Margevicius, and will hope for more of the same here. Lastly, 24 year old David Bednar is purely a relief prospect, but he pitched well enough in the California League to warrant some attention with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 96/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings at Lake Elsinore. He misses bats with a mid 90's fastball, though his secondaries and command are currently behind and he doesn't have the same upside as Munoz. The curveball gets swings and misses and improved command in 2019 could put him on the fast track to the majors, where he could be a strong middle reliever.
Low Minors Pitchers: LHP MacKenzie Gore, RHP Luis Patino, LHP Osvaldo Hernandez, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Henry Henry, and RHP Anderson Espinoza
This group of pitchers is farther away, but it's still a great set of potential impact starters who give the Padres yet another wave of pitching sitting in the minors. 20 year old MacKenzie Gore, the third overall pick of the 2017 draft from high school in Southeastern North Carolina, had an up-and-down but overall successful transition to full season ball in 2018 by posting a 4.45 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 74/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne. Gore put up some of the craziest high school pitching numbers ever seen at Whiteville High School, going 33-1 with a 0.11 ERA and 332 strikeouts in 157.2 innings, over which he allowed just two runs. Coming from a small school in rural North Carolina, it's understandable that Gore was a bit raw in his first taste of pro ball, and blisters made it difficult for him to keep his stuff sharp in 2018. However, when healthy, Gore checks every box for what you want in a future ace; he's a 6'3" lefty with no weaknesses, tossing a low to mid 90's fastball and adding a full array of secondaries – all of which flash plus – that he can command well for a young pitcher, and his competitiveness and work ethic are considered top of the scale. Healthy in 2019, Gore will have a chance to break out and move toward his ultimate ceiling of being a true ace. 19 year old Luis Patino was signed for just $120,000 out of Colombia in 2016, but he has been fantastic ever since joining pro ball and posted a 2.16 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings at Fort Wayne in 2018, pitching the whole season at 18 years old. The teenager has a mid 90's fastball and a pair of great breaking balls, enabling him to miss plenty of bats even against older competition. He commands everything pretty well for a pitcher his age, and he's only getting stronger. Eight months younger than Gore and already boasting a better track record, Patino has true ace potential and could emerge as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball with a successful transition to High A in 2019. 20 year old Osvaldo Hernandez had a quiet breakout season in 2018, posting a 1.81 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 109.2 innings with Fort Wayne. Hernandez has a low 90's fastball and just decent offspeed stuff (though his curveball is currently his best pitch) but controls the strike zone and mixes his pitches well enough to shut down opposing offenses, at least in Class A. The six foot lefty will have to continue to hit the corners if he wants to succeed at the higher levels, but he has the makings of a back-end starter down the road. 19 year old Ryan Weathers was the Padres' first round pick (seventh overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2018, and he quickly responded by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an 18/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.1 innings between complex ball and Fort Wayne. Despite his age, Weathers is actually more about command and durability than about pure upside, as he's a physically developed, 6'1" lefty with a low 90's fastball, a good curveball, and an advanced changeup. He should be a quick mover as far as high school pitchers go because he already has a pretty clear idea of how to pitch and use what he has, and he has mid-rotation upside with less risk than the typical high school arm. 20 year old Henry Henry has a great name but is also a solid pitching prospect, having posted a 4.54 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 55/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Fort Wayne in 2018. The 6'4" righty is very projectable and currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a solid curveball, and while his command isn't pinpoint, he's not wild and he can hit his spots. Adding some good weight could get him into the mid 90's with his fastball and make him a very interesting rotation candidate down the line, though he still has a good shot to be a solid fastball/curveball reliever. Lastly, 20 year old Anderson Espinoza missed the 2017 and 2018 seasons with Tommy John surgery, but the Padres have their fingers crossed that he's healthy and ready to get back to working towards his immense upside in 2019. He's a skinny six footer with a mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a very advanced changeup for his age, generally commanding everything well and looking like a future ace on his best days. However, we haven't seen him in game action since 2016, so it's hard to know exactly what his stuff will look like this season, but he turns just 21 during spring training and still has plenty of time to get back on track. Durability is definitely a concern given his size and injury history, so if he can't hold up in a rotation, he has high upside as a hard throwing reliever as well.
