2022 MLB Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

Full list of draftees

I really like what the Diamondbacks did at the top of the draft, bringing in who I believe to be the best player in the class followed by the pitcher with the best combination of stuff and command in the class, followed by the best hitter in college baseball. However, the draft quickly got odd, as they wound up with four unsigned high schoolers on day three despite coming in about $350,000 below their bonus pool and $1.1 million below the 5% overage allowance. So the fact that they couldn't sign Malachi Witherspoon, Aiva Arquette, Gavin Turley, or Riley Kelly comes down to some combination of cheaping out on the single most cost-effective way to add talent and underestimating the bonus demands of those four. They never expected to sign all four, but I have to imagine they hoped to come away with at least one, and either ownership closed the purse or all four wanted more than the roughly $475,000 they could spend without going over the pool. Still, I'm sure they could have gotten at least one if not two deals done if they had used that 5% overage. Just odd. Among the guys they did sign, I already mentioned that I loved the first couple of picks, and I also think Nogales star Demetrio Crisantes is a very interesting sleeper.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-2: OF Druw Jones, Wesleyan HS [GA]. My rank: #1.
Slot value: $8.19 million. Signing bonus: $8.19 million.
Druw Jones, in my opinion, is the single best player in this class. That makes getting him at the second pick a steal in my book, especially given the Diamondbacks' success with other prep bats like Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, and Jordan Lawlar. Druw Jones looks like a potential superstar, and I don't say that lightly – not every draft produces one. The son of former five time All Star and hopefully soon-to-be Hall of Famer Andruw Jones, Druw is just oozing with potential. He's built exactly like you draw them up, with a long, rangy, 6'4" frame with plenty of present strength and room to add considerably more. Not only that, but he's extremely athletic as well, registering plus-plus run times and simply moving gracefully around the field and in the box. That huge speed helps make him an exceptional defender in center field, where he also shows the excellent instincts you'd expect as the sone of arguably the greatest defensive outfielder of all time. Throw in a plus arm and you have a potential perennial Gold Glover out there. At the plate, Jones is equally impressive. He holds his hands high but gets on plane with the pitch early, staying through the zone to produce plus power to all fields. His approach is presently geared towards pulling the ball to left field, but he shows exceptional plate coverage and can still do so on the outer half of the plate. When he does go the other way, he still has plenty of pop in his bat to send the ball out over the right field fence as well. As the Atlanta-area native gets stronger and more mature, he'll have all the tools and natural ability ready to work from. To top it off, there isn't much swing and miss in his game at present and he really hasn't been challenged even facing the premium pitchers in his class. All together, it's a pretty maxed out profile with very, very little to nitpick and lots to dream on. Of course there is still plenty of development to be done given that he's only 18, but compared to his peers, he's ahead of them all. I see a perennial All Star in this profile. Unfortunately, just like Corbin Carroll and Jordan Lawlar before him, he injured his shoulder almost immediately after signing and will miss the season, but I can't wait to see him back on the field in 2023.

CBA-34: RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State. My rank: #23.
Slot value: $2.26 million. Signing bonus: $2.35 million ($88,750 above slot value).
Landon Sims has one of the most fun profiles in the draft, and the Diamondbacks are thrilled to get what they (and I) believe is a first round talent for only a small over slot bonus in the competitive balance round. Sims was a well known draft prospect out of high school, but made it to campus at Mississippi State and rocketed to fame as the closer on their 2021 National Championship team, where he posted a 1.44 ERA and a 100/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings. Converting to a starter in 2022, he was dominant once again to start out but was pulled from his third start in the midst of striking out ten of the first eleven batters he faced. Unfortunately, Sims ended up needing Tommy John surgery, so he finished the year with a 1.15 ERA and a 27/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.2 innings as a starter. So what do we have here? The Atlanta-area native has one of the best two-pitch mixes college baseball has seen in recent memory between his fastball and his slider. Sims' fastball sits in the mid 90's and gets up to 98, but plays above its velocity with tremendous riding life. You can throw a straight 96 or you can throw 96 that looks like it's exploding out of your hand, and this fastball is certainly the latter. Next we have an equally devastating slider, another plus-plus pitch with late, hard bite that left virtually the entire SEC helpless last year. Those two pitches helped him rack up a 46.9% strikeout rate as a sophomore (for reference, only Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader, Craig Kimbrel [twice], and Edwin Diaz [if he keeps this pace] have ever bested that mark in a single season, min. 50 IP). In anticipation of moving to the rotation this spring, he added a changeup over the offseason and it looked like a potential above average pitch in workouts. It seems like he was waiting for SEC play to break it out so we didn't get to see it much in game play, but it would give him that third pitch necessary to start. Most hard throwing college relievers have command problems, but Sims is actually above average in that regard and pounds the strike zone, going right after hitters consistently and working ahead in the count often. That is a huge piece in projecting him as a starter, and he walked just two batters in those 15.2 innings as a starter this spring. To top it all off, the sturdy, 6'2" righty is an absolute fire breathing bulldog on the mound that lives for the bright lights and high pressure situations. Between the stuff, command, size, and competitiveness, he's a pretty complete package that brings everything except a track record as a starter. Once healthy, I'm again excited to see where this goes.

2-43: 1B Ivan Melendez, Texas. My rank: #63.
Slot value: $1.82 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($418,500 below slot value).
In Ivan Melendez, the Diamondbacks got arguably the single best *right now* hitter in amateur baseball. A semi-hometown pick from El Paso, which is actually closer to Chase Field in Phoenix than it is to any other MLB stadium, the Hispanic Titanic began his college career at Odessa JC and transferred to Texas in 2021, where he earned significant day two draft interest but ultimately wound up returning to school to cut his strikeout rate. That move paid off in a big way, as he looked like a man amongst boys this spring with 32 home runs, a .387/.508/.863 slash line, and a 51/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. Melendez produces mammoth exit velocities with a lightning quick right handed swing and 225 pounds of brute strength packed into his 6'3" frame, helping him lead all of Division I baseball in home runs by three over second place Luke Franzoni of Xavier (Angels, 19th round). He lofts the ball extremely well with a steep uppercut, helping all of his plus-plus raw power play in games and it will continue to do so. Last year, that uppercut led to a 26.1% strikeout rate that scared teams off, but he dropped it to 16.2% this spring and now may have a fringe-average hit tool. He's recognizing pitches better and getting his barrel there more efficiently, though opposing pitchers may still be able to find holes in his swing in pro ball. Melendez will always have to deal with strikeouts, so the key will be patching up as many holes as he can, accepting the strikeouts that do come, and just doing immense damage when he does make contact. Based off of what he did in 2022, that contact should come much more often now. A year ago, he served as Texas' DH, but he took over as the every day first baseman this spring and showed well. An average or above average first baseman still does not provide much defensive value, but it's something and he should have plenty of bat to profile there regardless. Worst case scenario, he should be a power hitting bench bat and could move quickly if his approach translates to pro pitching. So far, he's slashing .206/.365/.353 with two home runs and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Visalia.

3-82: LHP Nate Savino, Virginia. My rank: #117.
Slot value: $782,400. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($82,400 below slot value).
Nate Savino is a really, really hard one to pin down. A potential first round pick out of high school in 2020, he reclassified and came to Virginia a year early and immediately slotted into the rotation when the season began shortly after his 18th birthday. In 2021, he looked more good than great and the prospect shine wore off a little, and then while he showed flashes of bigger things to come in 2022, he just as often looked ordinary out there. The final numbers this spring came out to a 3.69 ERA and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, highlighted by a complete game shutout against Duke and on the opposite end, three straight starts against Georgia Tech, Miami, and Pittsburgh in which he allowed six runs apiece (not all earned). Savino was up to 96 with his fastball as a high schooler and showed flashes of that velocity this spring, but also sat closer to 90 at times with average life from a wide slot. He flashes an above average slider and a solid changeup from that slot, coming across the plate with east-west action, but those pitches are inconsistent as well and can flatten out. They were on more often than not this spring and he bumped his strikeout rate from a very low 14.3% as a sophomore to a decent 23.1% as a junior, which is progress for sure. Additionally, the 6'3" lefty has a durable frame and repeats his delivery well, leading to solid average command, and it could potentially improve to above average in the Arizona development system. The Diamondbacks are really buying the youth here, as Savino doesn't turn 21 until January and most kids his age would be heading back to campus for their draft year right now, ready to build on their profile. The Northern Virginia native showed just how talented he was back in high school and glimpses of that talent are shining through more and more often now, even if he hasn't quite put it all together like the coaching staff in Charlottesville hoped. To me it looks like a #4 starter profile with some upside.

4-108: RHP Dylan Ray, Alabama. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $565,800. Signing bonus: $565,800.
When the draft was moved back from June to July, it allowed players to get in extra reps in the Cape Cod League and created a new definition for "late riser." Dylan Ray falls into this group, with his helium coming so late in the game that he went unranked on MLB Pipeline's top 250 and Baseball America's top 500, while coming in at #259 on Prospects Live, but signed for full slot value at #108. Ray got hurt and didn't pitch as a freshman, then as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2022 due to an extremely early birthday, he put up a 4.60 ERA and a 49/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings out of the Alabama bullpen. It was very solid if unspectacular, but he went to the Cape and promptly put up a 1.63 ERA and a 17/2 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven innings, opening eyes. Ray sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 98, coming in with plenty of riding life from an over the top delivery. He spins a pretty nasty curveball with depth and a harder slider when he locates them, but he struggles to command those breaking balls and often leaves them up, where they flatten out. There's a changeup in there too, but again, it's behind. The 6'3" righty has the frame and delivery to start, but needs to get much more consistent with his secondary stuff in order to do so. He's pretty young, having only turned 21 in May, and doesn't have much game experience on the mound. It's a pretty safe bet that the fastball and breaking balls would be nasty in a bullpen role, like they were on the Cape, but I have to believe that if the Diamondbacks are going to give him more than $500,000 to sign, they'll at least want to try out the Huntsville-area native in the rotation. So far in that role, he has a 6.30 ERA and a 14/3 strikeout to walk ratio over ten innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Visalia.

5-138: SS Andrew Pintar, Brigham Young. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $422,600. Signing bonus: $316,950 ($105,650 below slot value).
Andrew Pintar hit .333/.433/.556 as a sophomore at BYU and entered the spring as one of the more interesting prospects in the Rocky Mountain region, but his 2022 wound up being a nightmare. He hit just .209/.329/.284 with no home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 17 games, then went down with a shoulder injury that wiped out the rest of his season. The strikeout rate ballooned from 12.8% as a sophomore to 21.5% as a junior while his walk rate dropped from 14.2% to 10.1% and he hit for zero power. If the Diamondbacks are giving him more than $300,000 to sign, it's because they believe his struggles could almost entirely be attributed to that shoulder injury and that the 2021 Andrew Pintar is the real Andrew Pintar. That version of him made a ton of contact all over the zone, spraying line drives around the field consistently while turning some into home runs when they caught enough air. The power has always been fringy, but with his wiry 6'2" frame and quick right handed bat, he does have the ability to turn on the ball and put it in the seats. Arizona will want to get the Spanish Fork, Utah native healthy again and back to feeling like himself, where they could get a high average, moderate power bat lower in the draft than you'd expect. They drafted Pintar as a shortstop, but he had fringy arm strength before the shoulder injury and almost certainly projects better at second base, where he won't be as stretched.

6-168: LHP Will Mabrey, Tennessee. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $317,100. Signing bonus: $225,000 ($92,100 below slot value).
On a pitching staff full of pitchers that could reach triple digits, Will Mabrey offered a literal change of pace in the Tennessee bullpen. After barely pitching as an underclassman, he became one of the Volunteers' most reliable relievers with a 2.63 ERA and a 52/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 innings this spring. Mabrey's stuff isn't overpowering, with a low 90's fastball that tops out around 95, an above average slider that plays well off his fastball, and a less used curveball and changeup. Not overly physical at 6', 185 pounds, the lefty hides the ball well and comes in with flat plane, making it difficult to pick up his stuff. Additionally, he commands everything with precision, making this a very unconventional profile for a college reliever, a demographic that typically throw poorly-located gas if they're going to get drafted. To succeed in pro ball, the Cookeville, Tennessee native will need to add a tick or two to his fastball, which combined with the life, deception, and command he possesses, could make it a very tough pitch to handle. If he does see his stuff tick up in pro ball, he could move quickly to the Arizona bullpen.

7-198: SS Demetrio Crisantes, Nogales HS [AZ]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $247,200. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($177,800 above slot value).
First off, what a name. Second off, Demetrio Crisantes brings the Diamondbacks a hometown player to throw into the system. He attended Nogales High School on the Mexican border, and grew up a few exits north on I-19 in Rio Rico. Crisantes had been committed to play college ball at Arizona, but the Diamondbacks were able to pull him to Phoenix rather than Tucson for a sizable over slot bonus. He wasn't on my radar prior to the draft, but now having done some research, I'm bought in. He is extremely fluid in the box with a whippy, powerful right handed swing that naturally channels his strength into useable power, with great feel for the barrel that helps him drive balls all around the park. Crisantes does need to get stronger in order to maximize that power, though at a skinny six feet tall, it's not an ultra projectable frame. Still, there is enough room in there to add a tick or two, which will go a long way given the way he moves in the box. Additionally, he is extremely disciplined at the plate and Baseball America noted that he walked 32 times to just three strikeouts this spring, showcasing not only his barrel to ball skills but his pure bat to ball skills as well. At shortstop, he's springy and fluid again with enough arm strength to stick, though he'll need to quicken his transfer and arm stroke in order to stay there as he does have a tendency to gather himself and shuffle before he throws. To top it off, Crisantes is extremely young for a high school senior and will only turn 18 a few days after I publish this article. There is a ton of ceiling here for the desert kid and the Diamondbacks do very well with this type of player.

11-318: LHP Spencer Giesting, Charlotte. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($275,000 against bonus pool).
Spencer Giesting gives the Diamondbacks a bit of an under the radar arm, though he did command a pretty hefty fifth round-caliber bonus as a draft eligible sophomore. After a solid freshman season as a swingman, he put up a 3.72 ERA and a 105/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 innings as a sophomore this spring to build off some moderate Cape Cod League success. Giesting sits in the low 90's with his fastball but has been up to 96, with flat plane and a ton of riding life that help it play above its velocity. He shows feel to spin a breaking ball with a hard slider and a solid curveball and mixes in a changeup as well. At 6'4" with a good body and athletic movement on the mound, as well as having just turned 21 shortly before the draft, he offers plenty of projection now in the Arizona development system. They'll want to help him add a tick or two to his fastball so that it can make the most of its riding life, but the main priority right now should be his below average command. Sticking in the rotation will likely require an improvement both in his fastball velocity and command, which is entirely possible, while a move to the bullpen will likely be in order if he can't get that done. Regardless, his fastball could sit closer to the mid 90's in shorter stints and get that extra bump to help the riding fastball really play. So far, he has a 7.45 ERA and a 9/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Visalia.

12-348: RHP Malachi Witherspoon, Flagler HS [FL]. My rank: #167.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Malachi Witherspoon won't be heading to the desert and will instead stay home to attend Jacksonville, alma mater of Daniel Murphy and Austin Hays. Witherspoon has plenty of relievery traits right now, but there is also tremendous raw ability from a kid who only turned 18 in August. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 94-95, with big spin rates that give the pitch some life. He can really rip through his curveball, again with huge spin rates and hard depth and bite that make it a potential plus pitch. Witherspoon's changeup also flashes above average at its best, giving him a really dangerous arsenal at a really young age. The 6'3" righty is a very strong kid and only projects to get stronger, making it a profile to dream on. For now, his offspeed stuff can be very inconsistent as he's still learning how to harness it effectively, and with a drop and drive delivery that features some head whack and a late arm, he comes with significant reliever risk. The definition of a boom or bust profile, I'll be very interested to see what happens at Jacksonville over the next few years.

18-528: SS Aiva Arquette, Saint Louis HS [HI]. My rank: #194.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Aiva Arquette also did not sign, so he will attend Washington to build his stock. He lacks a carrying tool to this point, which may have tampered his interest out of high school, but does a lot of things well and building up a track record in Seattle will help his profile significantly. Arquette is very projectable at 6'4" and looks like a ballplayer, portending to future added strength on top of a pretty athletic frame as it is. He makes a lot of contact from the right side and can handle pitches all over the plate, though when he tries to swing for power, his swing can get a bit rigid and lead to minor swing and miss concerns. The Washington coaching staff is going to want to help him get stronger and access his power more naturally, which would be huge for his offensive projection. For now, the Hawaiian plays shortstop and should stick there in Seattle with smooth glovework and enough range and arm strength to be playable. He's not all that explosive, though, and may fit better at third base in the long run if he slows down at all with age.

19-558: OF Gavin Turley, Hamilton HS [AZ]. My rank: #69.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Gavin Turley originally hails from Midway, Utah, a small town across the Wasatch Range from Salt Lake City, but he moved south to Arizona around the time his brother, Noah, started play at Yavapai JC in Prescott, Arizona. While Noah eventually transferred to the University of Arizona, Gavin played his high school ball for the powerhouse Hamilton High School program in Chandler in the far southwestern Phoenix suburbs. Instead of staying to play for his new hometown team, he'll head back up north to Oregon State and hope to follow a Dylan Crews-like path to stardom. Turley is one of the best athletes in the class, with plus-plus speed that makes him a menace on the bases. Not only that, but quick hands and loose, powerful right handed swing can generate huge exit velocities for plus raw power, and he knows it. The approach at the plate is very raw right now, as he tends to sell out for power causing his swing to get too big, which combined with aggressive pitch selection is often too much for his fringy bat to ball skills to overcome. In Corvallis, Turley will need to learn to trust his incredible raw ability and let the home runs come naturally, in which case he could easily emerge a first round pick in 2025. He's raw on the defensive side as well, with fringy instincts leading to a potential career in right field despite his blazing speed. Throw in a plus arm, and he'll fit in very well there.

20-588: RHP Riley Kelly, Tustin HS [CA]. My rank: #88.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
The Diamondbacks closed out the draft with one more name that didn't sign, as Riley Kelly will instead stay home in Orange County and head to UC Irvine. Kelly was a pop up name this spring when his stuff ticked up, and it will likely continue to improve in Irvine. His fastball sits around 90, topping out around 94 with some ride, and more velocity is coming. His potentially plus-plus curveball is by far his best pitch, with massive depth and bite that can be sharpened if he wants something tighter. Lastly, his changeup is a bit behind. The 6'4" righty is very projectable with plenty of room to fill out, and the UC Irvine coaching staff will have the opportunity to smooth out his mechanics as well to help him better channel his strength. He'll need to add more power to his arsenal and bring that changeup along if he wants to start, and his command could use a little tuneup as well. There is a lot to work on, but I like his chances to get it done.

2022 MLB Draft: Ten early options for the Nationals at pick #5

We're entering a new era of Nationals baseball, with the newest generation of fans perhaps not used to picking so early in the draft. From 2012-2020, they never picked higher than sixteenth (Lucas Giolito, 2012), then in 2021 moved up to eleventh. In 2022, they'll be picking in a range more familiar to older fans, with their first top five pick since they made Bryce Harper their second of back to back first overall picks in 2010. Harper was part of an extremely successful run from 2009-2012 that also saw them take Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, 2009), Drew Storen (10th, 2009), Anthony Rendon (6th, 2011), and Giolito (16th, 2012) with first round picks. Since then, the 2010's were a bit of rough sledding with Erick Fedde (18th, 2014) and Carter Kieboom (28th, 2016) being the only two first rounders to make any kind of impact on the big league club, and Nationals first rounders since 2013 have actually combined for -0.4 fWAR in that timeframe.

With the lack of recent success from early picks, coupled with the constant trading of prospects during the Nationals' many playoff runs and several high profile international signings floundering, the farm system has fallen precipitously and was actually ranked dead last by Baseball America prior to the 2021 season. The deadline selloff that year, as well as a breakout from Cade Cavalli and high profile additions in Brady House and Christian Vaquero, helped bump Washington up to 26th out of 30 in the 2022 version of that list, but there is still a ways to go. It's clear that the system's traditional player development strategy has fallen behind other, more progressive systems, and for that reason Mike Rizzo is shaking things up going forward. For that reason, it's very hard to peg what direction the Nationals will go in 2022, and it might be easier to simply list out the best prospects in the draft, all of whom figure to have a chance to wear the Curly W. Before we dive in, let's take a quick look back at the Nationals five most recent first round picks:

2021: SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS, GA (11th overall)
2020: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (22nd overall)
2019: RHP Jackson Rutledge, San Jacinto CC (17th overall)
2018: RHP Mason Denaburg, Merritt Island HS, FL (27th overall)
2017: LHP Seth Romero, Houston (25th overall)

Brady House broke a streak of four consecutive pitchers taken in the first round and a streak of six consecutive first rounds selecting a pitcher. He's the first hitter the Nationals had taken to begin a draft since Kieboom in 2016, when they also selected college righty Dane Dunning one pick later. The one demographic the Nationals have really avoided with that first pick is a college bat, with Rendon in 2011 being the most recent, but there will be a bevy of options available this year that could cause that to change. Given the already-shallow college pitching class that has been further battered by injuries, as well as teams' usual reluctance to gamble on high school pitching at the very top of the draft, the available options are likely pointing to Washington taking a hitter with the fifth overall pick. There are three absolute studs at the very top of the prep bat class if they want to double up after taking House last year, while the college bats provide the deepest group of high-end talent of any demographic in the class. Let's explore some options, with their ranking on my current board in parentheses.

2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA] (#1)
If the draft were today, it would be highly unlikely for Termarr Johnson to make it past the first couple of picks, but high schoolers can be unpredictable with their bonus demands and we have a long spring ahead of us. So if other bats overtake him or if he starts asking for an astronomical number, Johnson could be available at pick #5. There are no two ways about it – TerJohn is a special, special hitter. Despite being nearly a year younger than much of his competition that consists of an oddly old group of top high school prospects, he has stood out with the best combination of polish and power we have seen in a long time. He takes extremely professional at bats, rarely chasing pitches he doesn't like even with an eye for the strike zone well beyond his years. When he does get his pitch, he can find the barrel with his eyes closed if he wants to with exceptional plate coverage and hand eye coordination. That level of confidence in the box allows him to rip off ferocious hacks from the left side without sacrificing his hit tool, giving him plus power despite a stocky 5'9" frame that might not look the part. For those familiar with last year's class, you can imagine Kahlil Watson's build, power, and swing (perhaps toned down just a hair) combined with more than a full grade better hit tool. On the defensive side, the Atlanta native shows a smooth and quick glove that profiles well at second base, though he probably lacks the explosive physical tools for shortstop in the long run. One of the Orioles, Diamondbacks, Rangers, or Pirates will probably pick him up before the Nationals come around at pick #5 if he keeps hitting like he does, but if he slips through, it would be hard for Washington to pass him over. He surprisingly remains uncommitted, so it remains to be seen how his bonus demands shape up and affect his market.

OF Druw Jones, Wesleyan HS [GA] (#2)
Termarr Johnson goes to school just west of downtown Atlanta, but up in the northeastern suburbs less than 25 miles away, we have another talent with equal if not greater upside in Druw Jones. The son of longtime Braves great and deserving future Hall of Famer Andruw Jones, Druw fits right at the top of the class as well and could also be gone before Washington selects. He is a supreme athlete that has steadily added more and more polish to his game, putting him fully in contention for the top overall spot on my board. He has an ideal frame at 6'4" with long arms and legs and plenty of room to add strength, something teams absolutely love to see early in the draft. A right handed hitter, he has plus raw power and loves to turn on pitches, driving them impressive distances with great strength and leverage in his swing. Despite a pull-centric approach, he shows great plate coverage with those long arms and strong barrel accuracy giving him the ability to pull pitches on the outer half of the plate with authority as well. He does show the ability to go the other way with authority already, but for now, that's usually not his approach. To top it off, Jones has strong plate discipline and pitch recognition and does not chase often. As a whole, the package at the plate makes him a tremendous ball of clay for the Nationals' pro development staff to get their hands on, and once you combine the strength, athleticism, and plate discipline befitting of the sone of a major leaguer with some tweaks to his overall approach and swing path, you have MVP upside. Not just a hitter, Jones shines on defense as well, with plus-plus speed helping him track down virtually anything hit in his direction in center field. As you'd expect given his father's defensive prowess, he's also polished out there beyond what you'd expect from most high schoolers. Throw in a strong arm and he has a chance to win Gold Gloves in center field. Jones is committed to Vanderbilt and will be an expensive sign, which could enable him to drop to the Nationals at pick #5.

OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL] (#5)
Rounding out the Big Three prep bats is Elijah Green, perhaps the most physically gifted high schooler we've seen in a long time. While Termarr Johnson is only 5'9" and Druw Jones still has plenty of room to grow into his 6'4" frame, Elijah Green has already filled out his 6'3" frame with 225 pounds of fast-twitch muscle. The son of former NFL tight end Eric Green, Elijah brings that kind of football athleticism to the baseball field and it manifests most prominently in some of the best raw power in the class, easily plus if not plus-plus. He takes big hacks from the right side to get the most out of that power, dropping some absolute bombs that leave scouts adding exclamation marks to their reports. In addition to his jaw dropping power, he's also a plus-plus runner that can make things happen on the bases, giving him true 30-30 upside in the majors. While he certainly has a healthy uppercut in the box, Green stays balanced up there and for years has shown the ability to tap his power in games, making him one of the most famous names in the 2022 prep class for a while now. He's especially potent down in the zone, where he can really go down and lift the ball, but lately pitchers have found holes in his swing with fastballs up in the zone as well as with well-placed breaking balls that dive out of the zone away from him. How the Orlando-area native adjusts this spring will dictate whether he remains in play at the top of the draft or slips a little bit, and scouts will have plenty of opportunity to evaluate him playing on the most talented high school program in the nation, the IMG Academy boarding school outside of Tampa. Defensively, his speed will help him stick in center field, while his plus arm will make him a true weapon and can help him compete for Gold Gloves if he can get a little more polished out there with his reads and routes. He's committed to Miami, but if he shows well enough this spring to be in play when the Nationals pick at #5 overall, that shouldn't be an issue.

RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford HS [GA] (#10)
The Atlanta area is consistently one of the top talent producing metros in the country, but 2022 is on another level. Already boasting Termarr Johnson and Druw Jones, who in my opinion are the two best prospects in this entire class for now, the ATL also gives us the near-consensus top pitching prospect in the prep class (and perhaps the entire draft) in Dylan Lesko, just twenty miles northeast of Jones' Wesleyan School and forty miles northeast of Johnson's Mays High School (yeah, the ATL is absolutely massive). It's crowded near the top of the prep pitching class, but Lesko has done just enough to provide some daylight between himself and the next tier. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and can get into the upper 90's, with good extension down the mound helping give that fastball a little extra hop. Lesko's bread and butter plus changeup with excellent diving action that can even be effective if he misses up in the zone, while he also adds two breaking balls. He throws his curveball more often than his slider, and while it's still a work in progress with inconsistent shape, he gets high spin rates on it that give it plenty of upside if the Nationals' staff gets their hands on it. The 6'2" righty has a sturdy frame and a clean delivery that helps him fill up the strike zone, generally doing a very good job of spotting his pitches to both sides of the plate. It's not so much of a "wow, I've never seen that before" profile as it is one that checks all of the boxes you look for in a premium prep pitching prospect, and if he stays healthy and continues pounding the strike zone with big league stuff like he has throughout his high school career, he could very well be in play at pick #5. Another factor that could push him up the board to Washington is the poor college pitching class, so if the Nationals want a true impact arm, he may be the best and possibly only option. As with Druw Jones, they'll also have to contend with an expensive Vanderbilt commitment.

SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly (#3)
2020-2021: 10 HR, .342/.384/.626, 3 SB, 34/18 K/BB in 55 games.
If the Nationals are going to take the first college hitter in the first round since 2011, there are tons of options but Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee might be the best at this point. A top two rounds talent out of San Luis Obispo High School in 2019, he instead headed to school to play for his dad and a massive sophomore season vaulted him to the top of the class. He immediately stands out for his pure feel for the barrel, which is arguably the best in the entire college class. Lee is an aggressive hitter that frequently expands his zone, but his barrel accuracy is so elite that he still rarely swings and misses and can do plenty of damage outside of the strike zone. When he connects, he shows above average raw power that he consistently taps in games, with the chance to grow into true plus power from his strong 6'1" frame once he incorporates a little more loft into his swing. On the defensive side, he's a heady defender that can make all the routine plays at shortstop but may be forced to move to third base as he fills out his frame and slows down a tick. He seems like exactly the kind of player the Orioles would love to get their hands on with the first overall pick, especially if he's willing to sign below slot value, but given the glut of position player talent at the top of this draft there's a very good chance he's available at pick #5. If he can tighten his strike zone a little bit in 2022 while continuing to tap his power, he could make sense for Washington as a potential prime Daniel Murphy-type hitter, bringing the added benefit of being a switch hitter and providing better defense.

OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison (#4)
2020-2021: 7 HR, .385/.488/.657, 14 SB, 24/34 K/BB in 42 games.
The Nationals also have a hometown option if they want to go that route, which I think would be really cool. Chase DeLauter grew up just over the Blue Ridge from the DC area in Martinsburg, West Virginia, just over sixty miles northwest of the White House. He's absolutely torn the cover off the ball at JMU, ripping .385/.488/.657 over 42 games to make scouts take notice, but it was his performance on the Cape (.298/.397/.589) against elite competition that really vaulted him up boards similar to New Mexico State's Nick Gonzales a few years ago, though they're very different players. DeLauter is listed at an intimidating 6'4", 235 pounds, and he looks it in the box. He has a very loose, effortless uppercut in the box that reminds me somewhat of James Wood from last year's draft, producing easy loft and playing well to his body type. It's not the most traditional swing path and his pure bat to ball skills are probably closer to average than plus, but he's an extraordinarily disciplined hitter that works counts with precision until he gets his pitch to hit. Despite facing a weaker schedule at JMU, that plate discipline held up extremely well on the Cape where he saw a big step up in competition, continuing to walk more (21) than he struck out (18) in 34 games. This is a true power hitter who is completely unfazed by premium stuff and whose small school should not be held against him. He's also a good runner that may be able to make it work in center field for a little while, though as he slows down he'll probably move to right field where his strong arm will play. To top it off, DeLauter is extremely young for the class and won't turn 21 until October, much like Jud Fabian a year ago. He'll be tested right away with a series against Florida State during the opening weekend, where he'll face two of the best lefties in the country in Parker Messick and Bryce Hubbart. How he fares against those two and the tough FSU staff as a whole will be closely watched, and if he performs like he's capable in that series and throughout the season against JMU's Colonial schedule, he'll very much be in play at pick #5.

OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech (#6)
2020-2021: 11 HR, .345/.415/.621, 9 SB, 48/17 K/BB in 51 games.
The Nationals have had a bit of UVA flavor lately between Ryan Zimmerman, Sean Doolittle, and briefly Mark Reynolds, but in 2022 they have an opportunity to flip across the rivalry and bring in a Hokie. Gavin Cross grew up in Bristol, Tennessee, just minutes over the border with Virginia, which makes him a quasi-hometown pick as well. He's actually a bit of a cross between Brooks Lee and Chase DeLauter in that he combines Lee's aggressiveness and pitch recognition with DeLauter's power and size, making his at bats somewhat of a laser show. He crushes baseballs with massive exit velocities on a scarily consistent basis, regularly driving them out to all fields for true plus power that plays in games. While he is aggressive, his pitch recognition and bat to ball skills are very strong and he makes a lot of hard contact outside the zone. While you might think that better pitching would exploit this, he has performed in the ACC and he hit a scorching .455/.474/.879 over eleven games with the Collegiate National Team, where he faced some of the best arms in the country. He's not quite as quick as DeLauter and probably won't sniff center field in pro ball, he'll be just fine in right with a cannon arm. I've mentioned this every time I've written about him, but the whole package really reminds me of Juan Soto minus his generational plate discipline (which of course is a big part of what makes Juan Soto Juan Soto). Cross has the size, frame, and swing of his Nationals counterpart, and his strong pitch recognition harkens to Soto as well. If he can tighten up the strike zone a little bit and show more of a patient approach at the plate in 2022, he should be in play for Washington at #5.

2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech (#7)
2020-2021: 25 HR, .322/.457/.678, 5 SB, 60/67 K/BB in 75 games.
In 2018, Texas Tech third baseman Josh Jung went eighth overall to the in-state Rangers, and in 2022, the Nationals could help his younger brother beat that position. It's hard to know what direction Mike Rizzo will go given how he will be changing the strategy this year, but out of everyone on this list, Jung probably feels the most like a National. He probably has the most balanced profile of any college hitter this year, and like I've mentioned before it's a very deep class in that regard so that's no small honor. He's extremely patient in the box and recognizes pitches well, enabling him to consistently do damage against strong competition. There is at least above average power in his 6' frame, which he taps extremely consistently in games because he's always finding the barrel. Some quibble with the San Antonio native's unique load, in which he cocks his bat back towards the backstop, but I like it because it puts him in a good position to hit and brings with it very little wasted movement. The overall product is a hitter that can produce 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages and hit near the top of a lineup, and there's a pretty high floor as well. Jung isn't a strong defender, with just enough glove for second base or just enough arm for third base depending on which you want to stretch, but you're buying the bat here. There's not much he can do to build off his tremendous 2021 season, but if he can just repeat it, he'll be in play at pick #5.

RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State (#13)
2020-2021: 6-0, 1.82 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 123/22 K/BB in 69.1 innings.
It's a very shallow college pitching class that was initially led by a trio of SEC righthanders in Arkansas' Peyton Pallette, Tennessee's Blade Tidwell, and Mississippi State's Landon Sims. However, a shallow pitching class got shallower when Pallette went down with Tommy John surgery and Tidwell was shut down with shoulder soreness, leaving Sims as the clear leader despite having never started a game at the college level. Instead, he's served as the Bulldogs' closer where anyone who watches college baseball at all has likely seen him. He'll transition to the rotation this spring after the departures of Will Bednar and Christian MacLeod, where he has a chance to really push himself up boards in a big way. It's the most explosive stuff in amateur baseball, bar none, that makes the Atlanta-area native special. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 97, but its movement is perhaps even more impressive than its velocity with tremendous carry that makes it nearly impossible to square up. His slider is just as good, a devastating breaker with nasty late bite, and the two pitches helped him strike out 46.9% (!) of the hitters he faced this past season despite going up against a strong SEC and NCAA Tournament schedule. For the most part, he's relied on those two pitches to get out, but he's been working on his changeup in preparation for his rotation move and the pitch is already looking very promising. Sims is a fire breathing competitor and an absolute bulldog when he comes in to close out games, but if the Nationals are going to draft him fifth overall, they're going to do so with conviction that he will be a starter. He commands the ball much better than you'd expect with his kind of stuff, which will bode well for that transition to the rotation this spring, and if his stuff is anywhere close to being as explosive as it is out of the bullpen, the sturdy 6'2" righty could pull it off. Watch to see how he holds up the second and third time through the order this year to see whether he's worth a shot at #5.

SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt (#16)
2020-2021: 16 HR, .268/.347/.522, 10 SB, 101/35 K/BB in 79 games.
If he wants to go fifth overall, Carter Young has more work to do than anybody else on this list, including Landon Sims and his transition to the rotation. Young was trending towards this part of the draft after hitting .328 in his shortened freshman season (albeit without much power in a small sample size) and coming out of the gate hot again in 2021, but a shoulder injury in May scuttled his momentum and he was still dealing with lingering effects after he returned in June. That second half slump in 2021 hurt his outlook, but he's fully healthy heading into 2022 and will look to build his stock back up. Young is a switch hitter that taps plus raw power in games with a big, healthy hack, with a mature all-fields approach that helps him handle high end stuff. However, that big swing also leads to some swing and miss, an issue that snowballed after his injury when he wasn't able to cut loose as effectively. In 2022, he'll have to not only get back to his pre-injury self, but cut down further on the swing and miss to prove he belongs at the very top of the class. Working in his favor is his defense, with both the range and the arm strength to profile as a plus defender at shortstop. Not many shortstops boast the kind of bat he shows at his best, and the Nationals would love it if he could put it all together this spring and cut his strikeout rate to a tolerable level. If he does, it will be one of the better all-around profiles in the class.

Other Dark Horse Candidates

LHP Brandon Barriera, American Heritage HS, FL (#15)
2B Robert Moore, Arkansas (#17)
LHP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy, FL (#20)
3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC (#22)
OF Justin Crawford, Bishop Gorman HS, NV (#38)

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the SEC

2021 draftees: 68. Top school: Arkansas (9)
2021 preseason writeup (published 11/7/2020)

Top draftees:
1-2, Rangers: RHP Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt)
1-10, Mets: RHP Kumar Rocker (Vanderbilt)
1-14, Giants: RHP Will Bednar (Mississippi State)
1-19, Blue Jays: RHP Gunnar Hoglund (Mississippi)
2-40, Red Sox: OF Jud Fabian (Florida)
2-42, Diamondbacks: SS Ryan Bliss (Auburn)
2-44, Rockies: RHP Jaden Hill (Louisiana State)

Beyond hosting both College World Series final teams in Mississippi State, the SEC continued to show why it is college baseball's premier conference in 2021 by leading the way with 68 players drafted. Every team in the league had multiple players selected while five different schools saw at least seven players go in the draft. Meanwhile, Arkansas tied with Texas Tech for the second most players drafted of any individual school with nine, behind only UCLA's ten.

The SEC has always been known for premier pitching, with Vanderbilt righty Jack Leiter earning the largest signing bonus of any player in the draft and four pitchers going in the top nineteen picks a year ago. In 2022, however, the pendulum looks to have swung slightly to the position player side, with a deluge of big bats all jostling for position in the first round. By my count, I see about twelve players who are in a very good position to go in the first round, and while of course that won't be the case come July, it bodes well for the conference's chances of matching or bettering last year's mark of four first round draftees. The depth here is really impressive, and beyond the top couple of names, I really feel bad ranking any of these players outside of the top five and I see very little separation between the top and bottom of the list, which I extended to twelve after doing ten for the other conferences. One interesting trend I noticed was size, as the twelve players on the list average less than 6'1" in height and Hunter Barco (6'4"), the last player on the list, is the only one above 6'2". Not typical for a conference like this one.

1. 3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6', 210 lbs. Born 5/5/2001. Hometown: Queen Creek, AZ.
2021: 17 HR, .352/.439/.676, 2 SB, 58/33 K/BB in 63 games.
LSU made a huge splash by hiring away Arizona head coach Jay Johnson this summer, and that move paid immediate dividends when all-everything slugger Jacob Berry decided to follow his coach across the country on Interstate 10. As a true freshman last spring (albeit the age of a sophomore), he was one of the best hitters in the entire country and served as the centerpiece to arguably college baseball's best lineup, slugging the Wildcats to their first College World Series appearance since 2016. He then cranked it up another notch with the US Collegiate National Team, slashing .387/.475/.871 with four home runs in eleven games against arguably the best amateur competition in the country. Berry may only be six feet tall, on the shorter side for a slugger, but he packs as much strength into that smaller frame as you could possibly expect. He trusts that strength and utilizes a simple, direct swing from both sides of the plate to tap into easy plus raw power very consistently in games, never having to sell out or swing out of his shoes to get there. The Phoenix-area product is a patient hitter that draws his walks and keeps his strikeouts to a reasonable level, and he's completely unfazed by high-end velocity and offspeed stuff. There is no doubt that Berry will handle the slight jump in competition from the Pac-12 to the SEC, and very few have any concerns about his ability to continue to produce at a high level immediately in pro ball once he's drafted. The bat will be the carrying tool, because he's a below average defender at third base with a choppy glove that may end up having to move to first base. He'll have plenty of bat to profile at first, but as a decent athlete with better mobility than you'd expect for his frame, a team may be able to run him out at the hot corner if they're patient and prioritize development in that part of his game. Regardless, offensive production is what earns the big bucks and he has it in spades, and between Berry (.352/.439/.676, 17 HR), Dylan Crews (.362/.453/.663, 18 HR), Cade Doughty (.308/.368/.546, 13 HR), Gavin Dugas (.295/.407/.641, 19 HR), and Tre' Morgan (.357/.441/.526, 6 HR), you'll be hard pressed to find a more intimidating lineup in 2022 than the one in Baton Rouge.

2. SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6', 180 lbs. Born 1/24/2001. Hometown: Selah, WA.
2021: 16 HR, .252/.341/.559, 9 SB, 84/31 K/BB in 61 games.
Jacob Berry has been a more consistent hitter to this point in his career, so I have him as the number one prospect in the conference, but Carter Young has the higher ceiling and probably a better chance to break through and earn a number one overall selection. An immediate contributor in his shortened freshman season in 2020 (.328/.373/.377), he carried that success over into the 2021 season and was one of the SEC's more dynamic players for much of the season, but he injured his shoulder in May and when he returned a few weeks later, he didn't look like the same player. The post-injury slump hurt his overall numbers and he finished with over a 30% strikeout rate, but after taking the summer off to rest and heal, his proponents expect huge things in 2022. Young, like Berry, is a switch hitter with power from both sides of the plate, taking healthy, uppercut hacks that really help him channel his lean strength into useable game power. The swing can get big at times, but when he's going right he's an extremely tough out that is equally willing to take you deep or slap a line drive the other way. There has always been swing and miss in his game, an issue exacerbated by the injury, but the hope is that a healthy 2022 combined with another year of development can help get that under control. On the flip side, the Washington state product is an above average defender who will definitely stick at shortstop, with a plus arm and plenty of range to positively impact the game with his glove. Teams love up the middle athletes early in the draft, and Vanderbilt is no stranger to producing that kind of talent between shortstop Dansby Swanson (first overall, 2015) and utility man Austin Martin (fifth overall, 2020). Young is a better defender than Martin and has more power than both, so how high he goes in 2022 ultimately hinges on the consistency of his hit tool.

3. RHP Peyton Pallette, Arkansas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 175 lbs. Born 5/9/2001. Hometown: Benton, AR.
2021: 1-2, 4.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 67/20 K/BB in 56 innings.
The first time I heard Peyton Pallette's name was a roller coaster day and I wrote about it here. Having no idea who he was, I watched him start off an extremely experienced and disciplined top of the Texas lineup six up, six down for two innings, never throwing a fastball under 95 and striking out the last two (Big 12 #6 prospect Trey Faltine and 2021 #196 overall prospect Ivan Melendez) on six consecutive fastballs. The dude just blew me away. After that sensational season opening start, he went on to have some ups and downs including rough starts against Alabama (1 IP, 4 ER) and Ole Miss (4 IP, 7 ER), but he showed enough to stand firm as the top pitching prospect in the best conference in baseball. Pallette sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, tops out around 97, and gets tremendous ride on the pitch that just seems to explode onto hitters. He adds a plus-plus curveball with elite spin rates that looks to be one of the best breaking balls in the entire class, just crashing down on hitters as if it was spiked like a volleyball. To this point, the Little Rock-area native doesn't use his changeup as much and it's a below average pitch, so that will certainly be a point of development in 2022 and beyond. Despite standing a skinny 6'1", he's a strong kid that holds his velocity deep into starts through a low effort delivery, portending to a safe bet future in the rotation. Pallette often shows above average command but can get hit when he falls behind in the count or grooves one over the plate, so just a bit more consistency in that regard will be another thing to work on if he wants to be the first pitcher off the board on draft day. Relatively young for the class with a May birthday and younger than true sophomore Jacob Berry, there's as much talent in his right arm as anyone in college baseball and he looks the part of a high ceiling ace with some minor smoothing out of the edges in his game. The fastball/curveball combination is elite and the arm strength, body control, and athleticism are there, so the focus just needs to turn to his changeup and avoiding those lapses in command.

4. C Hayden Dunhurst, Mississippi.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 5'11", 220 lbs. Born 9/19/2000. Hometown: Carriere, MS.
2021: 7 HR, .280/.385/.435, 3 SB, 44/32 K/BB in 65 games.
Hayden Dunhurst hasn't quite put it all together yet, but strong defensive catchers who can produce in power conferences are always in demand and he firmly fits that profile. One of the top recruits nationally to reach campus from the 2019 high school ranks, Dunhurst has seen his game translate much more smoothly to the SEC than many anticipated and he now finds himself in the conversation as one of the top catchers in a loaded college class along with Mississippi State's Logan Tanner, Arizona's Daniel Susac, and Georgia Tech's Kevin Parada. He may be a bit undersized for a power hitter at 5'11", but like Jacob Berry he packs a ton of strength into that shorter frame and shows plus raw power from both sides of the plate. To this point, it hasn't shown up in games as much because he has mostly focused on making contact and hitting for average, opting to use the whole field and look for line drives rather than turn on and lift balls out of the park. Some would like to see the southern Mississippi product accept more swing and miss into his game to allow the power to play up, but regardless he has plenty of bat to profile as a starting catcher in the big leagues. Dunhurst really shines on defense, where his cannon arm ranks among the best in college baseball and can completely shut down the running game. While that plus-plus arm is his calling card, he's also come along very nicely with his glovework and figures to be an above average defender in that regard with a little more work, making the whole defensive package extremely enticing. Usually you have take a "glove-first" catcher to get that kind of defense and just hope his bat comes along, but Dunhurst has the bat. He can take it a step further by putting it all together in 2022 and tapping that power without letting his strikeout rate creep up too much, and if he can, he may be able to push to the front of the college catching pack.

5. C Logan Tanner, Mississippi State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 215 lbs. Born 11/10/2000. Hometown: Lucedale, MS.
2021: 15 HR, .287/.382/.525, 0 SB, 48/39 K/BB in 67 games.
Hayden Dunhurst and Logan Tanner have very similar profiles and are very close on this list, but I ultimately decided to put Dunhurst first because he's a switch hitter, his tools are a touch louder, and Tanner could not take advantage of Dunhurst's slower College National Team run (.160/.267/.160) as he struggled in his own right (.182/.217/.318). Tanner, also a southern Mississippi native who grew up a couple counties over from Dunhurst, was not as highly rated a recruit but was fantastic for Mississippi State in its run to the College World Series championship. He's a very well-rounded hitter that shows above average power from a compact right handed swing, effectively deploying the strength in his sturdy frame into usable game power. His patient, mature approach at the plate helps him tap that power consistently against good pitching, though his pure bat to ball skills are more average and he can sometimes get himself into trouble in deep counts. Behind the plate, he's an extremely good athlete that figures to be a plus defender, showing plenty of agility back there that is apparent to any observer. His plus arm plays up even further due to that agility, with the ability to throw from multiple angles as evidenced by this great throw against Ole Miss. With above average power that he taps in games, a strong enough approach to work in pro ball and make up for any deficiencies in his pure contact ability, and strong defense at a premium position, there are very few weaknesses in this profile and Tanner has a chance to work his way up as a starting catcher.

6. RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 1/3/2001. Hometown: Cumming, GA.
2021: 5-0, 1.44 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 100/15 K/BB in 56.1 innings.
I will usually be the low man on college relievers. Their track record is as poor as any demographic in the draft, as they're already often performing at maximum capacity and don't get that "bump" in stuff that college starters do in shifting to relief work in pro ball. That said, Landon Sims is different. Despite facing extremely tough competition in 2021, he still struck out 46.9% of his opponents with an elite fastball/slider combination that very few hitters have solved to this point. Sims sits in the mid 90's and will regularly touch 97 without exerting himself, and the pitch plays up further because he gets tremendous riding life that makes it appear to catch another gear halfway to the plate. If you want the dictionary definition of an "explosive" fastball, here's what it looks like from behind the plate. On top of that plus-plus pitch, we have another one in the slider. Sims' slider has devastating late bite, just diving into oblivion at the last possible second and leaving hitters looking silly like this. On top of having two plus-plus pitches, he shows above average command that really helps the two pitches play off each other, something you very rarely see from an amateur pitcher with that kind of stuff. He served as the closer in 2021, often pitching two or three innings at a time, but not because he lacks the ability to start. Mississippi State's staff was absolutely loaded and Sims' mentality on the mound fits perfectly in a closer's role, as he's a fire breathing competitor that will make damn sure you see nothing but his very best from start to finish. He lives for the big stage and relishes in high pressure situations, so he'll for sure be able to handle the bright lights of even MLB's larger markets. So why #6? First, the five players ahead of him project as a middle of the order slugger, an all-around catalyst, an ace, and back to back starting catchers, so that's all elite talent and nothing to be ashamed of falling behind. Second is the reliever thing, and you can see the track record in this tweet. When a starter converts to relieving in pro ball, his stuff takes a natural jump as he goes from throwing six or seven innings at a time to just one or two, but a college reliever doesn't get that bump. I really want to see how Sims' stuff holds up in a starting role in 2022 before feeling comfortable with him as a first round pick, especially as it pertains to holding velocity (he's usually about 93-95, T97 in relief) and keeping that devastating late snap on his slider. We also haven't seen much of a changeup because he really hasn't needed it. There's no reason not to think he can make that jump to starting, especially given his efficient delivery, ridiculous arm strength, strong command, and overall competitiveness on the mound, so he still ranks among the best in the SEC and therefore the best in college baseball. We'll just have to wait and see.

7. 3B Cade Doughty, Louisiana State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 3/26/2001. Hometown: Denham Springs, LA.
2021: 13 HR, .308/.368/.546, 1 SB, 32/22 K/BB in 58 games.
Cade Doughty does not have the loudest tools in the SEC, and certainly does not compare favorably to the other names on this impressive list when it comes to power, speed, or overall athleticism. However, the kid is somewhat reminiscent of another former LSU Tiger, Daniel Cabrera, in that he can just flat out play baseball. I actually like Doughty significantly more than I liked Cabrera, and I (like many others) am enamored enough with his natural feel for the game to rank him high on this list. Doughty was a highly regarded recruit coming out of the Baton Rouge-area high school ranks and I liked him then as well, and all he's done since then is just hit and hit and hit. Doughty is a very professional hitter that makes a ton of contact from the right side, consistently going with the pitch and working an all fields approach. With a bat path that is naturally long through the hitting zone, he has some margin for error on pitches he mistimes. Not just a slappy gap to gap hitter, he has plenty of leverage in his 6'1" frame and taps into above average power both to his pull side and the opposite field. The end product is a very well-rounded bat that has a chance to produce 15-20 home runs annually in the majors while posting relatively high on-base percentages, and I have a feeling he's going to end up closer to his ceiling than his floor. In 2022, he might want to get a bit more selective to try to draw a few more walks, as he tends to make contact early in the count and walked in just 8.5% of his plate appearances last year. He also provides value on defense, with good range and instincts in the infield and an above average arm that would make him a net-positive defender at either second or third base.

8. 2B Robert Moore, Arkansas.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 5'9", 170 lbs. Born 3/31/2002. Hometown: Leawood, KS.
2021: 16 HR, .283/.384/.558, 6 SB, 51/41 K/BB in 61 games.
Every year, guys come around that are just ballers. Last year it was Ryan Bliss, now with the Diamondbacks, and this year Robert Moore seems like the guy. The son of Royals general manager Dayton Moore, Robert is undersized and lacks big tools but can just flat out play baseball with the best of them. He graduated early from Shawnee Mission East High School in the Kansas City suburbs and enrolled at Arkansas when he was just 17, and promptly hit .317/.403/.444 as a freshman despite not being old enough to vote. Moore continued that success with a strong sophomore season at 18-19 years old and then hit .351/.415/.378 as one of the youngest members of the US Collegiate National Team. Standing just 5'9" and with a skinny frame at that, he works counts extremely well and is completely unfazed by elite, older pitching, taking professional at bats consistently day in and day out. The switch hitter is very mechanically sound in his swing from both sides of the plate, creating a ton of whip that gives him more power than you'd expect for his size, especially to the pull side. That power didn't really show up with wood bats for the CNT, where he had just one extra base hit (a double) in eleven games, and given his size it's fair to question how much he'll have in pro ball. It's not quite a Nick Madrigal profile because there is some swing and miss in his game, and he may have to decide going forward what kind of a hitter he wants to be and how much contact he'll trade for power. To me, how much the power will show up with wood bats is probably the most important question. Moore is a sparkplug on defense as well, playing a standout second base for Arkansas and potentially showing the ability to move over to shortstop in pro ball if he can get a little stronger and improve his arm a touch. Either way, he's a plus runner and has the range to play anywhere on the diamond. There are players you don't bet against, and Bob Moore seems like one of them with a Dustin Pedroia ceiling.

9. OF Jud Fabian, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 9/27/2000. Hometown: Ocala, FL.
2021: 20 HR, .249/.364/.560, 6 SB, 79/40 K/BB in 59 games.
We spent a lot of words on Jud Fabian in 2021, and we're going to do it again in 2022. Having graduated a semester early from Trinity Catholic High School in Ocala, Florida in 2018, he enrolled at Florida in time for the 2019 season and had established himself as one of the top prospects in the country (and #3 in the SEC) by the time the 2021 season rolled around. What ensued was an extremely up and down junior year for Fabian, who had four multi-homer games (including one against #2 overall pick Jack Leiter) but at one point also managed to strike out 15 times in 22 hitless plate appearances. The Red Sox still drafted him with the 40th overall pick and offered him a multi-million dollar signing bonus, but it wasn't anywhere close to the $3 million he had asked for (a price some other teams were reportedly willing to meet) and he's returning to school. Last year, Fabian was one of the youngest eligible players from a four year school, still two and a half months shy of his 21st birthday, so he'll be age appropriate for this year's draft and is younger than Hayden Dunhurst. He does a lot of things well and really only has one weakness in his game. The Ocala product has plus raw power and does an excellent job of lifting the ball, with a swing ideal for blasting balls out of the park that has done so consistently against the best arms in the country. As up and down as his season was, he never went more than four games without a home run in the regular season. He also has a very strong eye at the plate, effectively working counts and recognizing spin even against premium velocity and stuff. The problem with his bat, however, is that he simply lacks the barrel accuracy to consistently tap his power and get on base. Fabian's uppercut swing means that even though he rarely chases bad pitches, he often swings through hittable ones and can be prone to long bouts of coming up empty at the plate. In 2022, he'll have to prove he can be more consistent, because another year of ups and downs could knock him out of the top two rounds or so. However, even a small reduction in his strikeout rate where he at least avoids the major slumps that plagued him in 2021 could lock him into the first round. On defense, Fabian provides plenty of value with plus speed and range that will fit very well in center field, taking some pressure off his bat and also helping him out on the bases.

10. LHP Connor Prielipp, Alabama.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 1/10/2001. Hometown: Tomah, WI.
2021: 1-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 12/1 K/BB in 7 IP.
Connor Prielipp is somewhat of the mystery man in this conference. He began his college career perhaps as well as you could possibly expect, tossing 26 shutout innings with 43 strikeouts, six walks, and just nine hits allowed in five non-conference starts against Northeastern, UNLV, Harvard, Lipscomb, and McNeese State. The first four came in the shortened 2020 season, while the McNeese State start ended up being his only start of the 2021 season as his elbow gave out on him. He came back for two much less effective relief appearances against Auburn and LSU in mid-April and mid-May, respectively (2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K), but went down with Tommy John surgery and will likely miss the 2022 season as well. It's not often that an injured pitcher with just 28 collegiate innings to his name can make a first round push, especially when they were not a highly regarded recruit, but Prielipp really is special. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has been up to 97, velocity he has maintained throughout his handful of starts. His slider is a plus pitch with late bite, darting under bats at the last second, and his changeup is an above average pitch in its own right. With a simple, easy delivery, the 6'2" lefty commands his pitches well and has all of the traits you look for in a frontline starting pitcher, and if he hadn't gotten hurt he may very well be the number one player on this list. However, the fact that we haven't seen how he handles a larger workload is important, as he'll be asked to throw roughly seven times his career high in innings in a big league rotation, and for that reason you can't project him as a starter with as much certainty as a guy like Peyton Pallette. Prielipp's five starts have also come against weaker competition, with the two worst innings of his career being the only two he threw against SEC teams (albeit while hurt). On talent alone, he might be the best in the conference, so his low ranking on this list is really just a byproduct of the depth of the conference combined with the unfortunate fact that we just won't have seen him pitch in a very long time come draft day.

11. OF Cayden Wallace, Arkansas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 8/7/2001. Hometown: Greenbrier, AR.
2021: 14 HR, .279/.369/.500, 0 SB, 61/29 K/BB in 60 games.
Cayden Wallace was one of the top recruits to make it to campus following the shutdown, and he immediately made an impact by working his way into the middle of arguably the best lineup in the country as a true freshman. After swatting 14 home runs as a teenager playing an SEC schedule, he continued to produce with wood bats in the Cape Cod League and slashed .290/.352/.468 with two home runs over 18 games. Because he turned 20 over the summer and will be 21 a few weeks after the draft, he'll be eligible this year as a true sophomore. The first thing you notice with Wallace is the power, as he produces big exit velocities and crushes baseballs impressive distances from the right side. Not the biggest guy in the world at six feet tall, he packs in plenty of lean muscle and produces a ton of force. Evaluators saw him as power-over-hit in high school and that was the case during his freshman season, but he handled SEC pitching better than many expected right out of the gate and was unfazed by the premium stuff he saw on the Cape. There is still some swing and miss in his game with a right handed uppercut that can get a bit long at times, but the barrel does get into the hitting zone early and he does a great job of staying through the ball. As his pitch recognition skills sharpen with age, he should become an average hitter in the big leagues with the potential for plus power. The central Arkansas native is a below average runner but certainly not a base clogger, and his cannon right arm gives him a chance to be an average defender in right field. He played infield in high school and could stick at third base with some more seasoning, and he may get the opportunity to prove himself a bit at the position in 2022 after playing mostly right field in 2021. There's a little more projection required with Wallace because he doesn't control the strike zone as well as many of the names above him on this list, but he's also younger than most of them as well. Either way, expect big things from him in 2022.

12. LHP Hunter Barco, Florida.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 220 lbs. Born 12/15/2000. Hometown: Jacksonville, FL.
2021: 10-3, 4.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 94/26 K/BB in 83 innings.
Hayden Dunhurst, Landon Sims, Cade Doughty, and Cayden Wallace may have been nationally-known prospects coming out of high school, but Hunter Barco was the most hyped of all of them at Bolles High School in Jacksonville, earning first round grades from some evaluators. His performance at Florida has been more up and down than he may have liked so far, but with a 3.52 ERA and a sharp 120/32 strikeout to walk ratio through 102.1 innings over two seasons, he remains very much a contender for the first round. Barco has a deep arm plunge in his delivery and comes from a low three quarters slot that gives a unique look to hitters, especially from the left side, getting down the mound well with his lower half and showing off his athleticism. His stuff can be inconsistent, with a fastball that can get up to 96-97 at its best but which has also been known to drop into the upper 80's. The slider is his best pitch, a plus, sweepy breaker when it's on that creates a lot of confused swings, while his split changeup gives him another above average pitch. Barco's in-zone command can come and go but he does a very good job of pounding the strike zone even when he isn't feeling as precise with his location, and only once in his twenty career starts has he walked more than three batters in an outing. The 6'4" lefty has projection remaining and is a very good athlete, and he gave a glimpse at his ceiling this summer when he struck out eight of the ten batters he faced for the US Collegiate National Team. On the docket for 2022 will be a bit more consistency, which could help him overtake Connor Prielipp, Landon Sims, and Peyton Pallette as the best arm in the conference.

Honorable Mentions
Given the depth of this conference, I wanted to touch on a couple more names that just missed. Vanderbilt's Spencer Jones was the first name off the list, as he hasn't received much playing time in Nashville but slashed an impressive .309/.409/.457 on the Cape and shows plus raw power from a 6'7" frame. He was one of the more famous players in the 2019 prep class out of high school in the San Diego area but made it to campus after injuries wiped out his senior season, and at the time he drew early round interest as a pitcher with a low 90's fastball and an above average curveball as well. He hasn't pitched at all for Vanderbilt and has only played in 48 games overall in two seasons, so it will be interesting to see how much he can tap that power in games on a consistent basis in 2022 and whether his strong plate discipline can translate to a plus hit tool despite the natural swing and miss you get with arms as long as his. And maybe we'll finally get to see him pitch. Tennessee's Blade Tidwell is another interesting draft-eligible sophomore who will turn 21 in June, coming off a strong true-freshman season in the Volunteer rotation where he had a 3.74 ERA and a 90/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 98.2 innings. The 6'4" righty has a power right arm that can run his fastball up to 97 with ease, sitting in the mid 90's and showing very good feel to spin both a slider and curveball as well. His control is ahead of his command but he pounds the strike zone consistently and rarely hurts himself with walks, giving him a high floor as a back-end starter with a mid-rotation ceiling. Florida's Brandon Sproat might have the strongest arm in the entire conference, but he has a 5.53 ERA and a 26/18 strikeout to walk ratio over just 27.2 innings because he's struggled to throw strikes. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch 99 in relief, while his above average slider provides an out pitch. To this point, he looks like a reliever because of that below average command and the lack of a reliable changeup, but there are no glaring issues in his delivery and more consistent innings in 2022 might help him pull it together enough to earn a shot as a starter. Lastly, LSU's Eric Reyzelman is one of the more interesting transfers out there, having come over from San Francisco. While his numbers against weaker competition weren't that impressive over two years with the Dons (5.72 ERA, 56/36 K/BB in 50.1 IP), he was much stronger on the Cape this summer (2.93 ERA, 38/8 K/BB in 27.2 IP) and he's a breakout candidate for 2022. The 6'2" righty now sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can touch 96-97 in short stints, adding a full arsenal behind it headlined by an above average slider. Reyzelman has a very loose, athletic delivery with some deception and is young for the class, in fact younger than true-sophomore Tidwell despite being a junior.