Before the season, I wrote about "one breakout star to watch" for each team, with one article for the AL and one for the NL. I'll go team by team and review each pick. Unfortunately, while I had some hits, many of my breakout picks flopped and three had Tommy John surgery before the season even started, so overall I am a little disappointed in the way this list turned out. If I still have time, I'll try again for the 2019 season.
Baltimore Orioles: Chance Sisco (2 HR, .181/.288/.269, 1 SB, 59 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
As with all things Orioles related in 2018, this didn't quite work out. Sisco's bat proved to be overmatched by major league pitching, and he struck out in 35.9% of his plate appearances while slashing .181/.288/.269 over 63 games. He turns 24 in February so he is still plenty young and will try again next year, but so far, not so good for Sisco.
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers (21 HR, .240/.298/.433, 5 SB, 90 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR)
While Devers didn't exactly flop in 2018, his .240/.298/.433 line was still somewhat disappointing after he slashed .284/.338/.482 in a smaller sample size last season. While the power was pretty good, he struggled to get on base and a .298 OBP won't exactly cut it unless you're hitting 30+ home runs. He did slash .294/.351/.382 in the postseason and picked up some timely hits, and having just turned 22 during the World Series, he has plenty of time to move past his moderately disappointing 2018.
New York Yankees: Miguel Andujar (27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR)
Here's one that I definitely got right. There was an opening for Andujar at third base and he took it, clubbing 76 extra base hits in 149 games and holding down a critical lineup spot for one of baseball's better teams. While his 4.1% walk rate cut into his production and left him with a pedestrian .328 OBP, it's hard to ask for more out of a 23 year old rookie than what Andujar gave in 2018.
Tampa Bay Rays: Brent Honeywell (did not play - injured)
Shortly after I picked Honeywell as the Rays' breakout star to watch, he tore his UCL and had to miss the season. My runner up was Jake Bauers, who slashed .201/.316/.384 with eleven home runs in 96 games and was more in the Rafael Devers boat of "not necessarily disappointing, but not great either."
Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez (22 HR, .239/.302/.468, 5 SB, 107 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
While Hernandez didn't exactly light the world on fire, he did break out for 22 home runs in his first full season. Overall, 58 extra base hits in 134 games is pretty good, and a 107 wRC+ meant he was an above average hitter despite a low .302 OBP. I'll consider Hernandez a success here, though with his poor defense he was barely above replacement level.
Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada (17 HR, .235/.315/.400, 12 SB, 97 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR)
Put Moncada in the same category as Rafael Devers. He was very inconsistent in 2018, slashing as high as .274/.361/.516 in April and as low as .197/.242/.350 in June. Overall, though, his numbers turned out quite decently: 17 home runs, a .235/.315/.400 line, and 2.0 fWAR. He hit the ball hard, but his 33.4% strikeout rate kept him from sustaining hot stretches and kept his overall production more pedestrian. Let's see what happens in 2019.
Cleveland Indians: Bradley Zimmer (2 HR, .226/.281/.330, 4 SB, 63 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
Zimmer was limited to just 34 games in 2018 due to injuries, so his big breakout did not come. However, he's just about to turn 25 and Michael Brantley, Rajai Davis, and Brandon Guyer are all free agents, so Zimmer does have a good chance to make 2019 the year.
Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario (19 HR, .224/.317/.393, 3 SB, 95 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR)
Candelario hit 19 home runs, walked at a healthy 10.7% clip, and played good defense in 2018 as a 24 year old near-rookie, but a .224 batting average limited his overall slash line. While expectations may have been a little higher, his 2.5 fWAR shows he was more than solid, and the Tigers should feel comfortable moving forward with him as their starting third baseman.
Kansas City Royals: Adalberto Mondesi (14 HR, .276/.306/.498, 32 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR)
Before the season, I asked "could 2018 finally be Mondesi's year?" and as it turns out, the answer was yes. Mondesi was on the MLB.com top fifty prospect list way back in 2013, and now the 23 year old is finally producing after disappointing 2016 and 2017 seasons in the majors. This year, he slashed .276/.306/.498 with 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases in just 75 games, putting up 2.8 fWAR in less than half a season. Honestly, even I didn't realize Mondesi has that good of a year. His future was in doubt for a while, but now it looks like he can take over at shortstop for the departing Alcides Escobar.
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton (0 HR, .156/.183/.200, 5 SB, -3 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR)
Well...whoops. I was hoping Buxton would finally take the step forward into stardom or at least semi-stardom after slashing .300/.347/.546 in the second half of 2017, but he was hurt on and off in 2018, spent time in the minors, and ultimately never got anything going. It's hard to believe after four up and down years in the majors, he's still just 24 years old and has plenty of time to make things click, but he'll likely never become the superstar the Twins envisioned when they drafted him second overall in 2012 or when he was widely considered the game's top prospect after slashing .334/.424/.520 with 12 home runs and 55 stolen bases at Class A and High A in 2013.
Houston Astros: David Paulino (1-0, 1.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6/2 K/BB, 6.2 IP)
Paulino's prospect status is still intact after pitching parts of three seasons in the majors, and he's still just 24, but ultimately 2018 was not his year after he ended up sitting out much of it with injuries. Traded to the Blue Jays for Roberto Osuna, he'll give it another try in 2019.
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani (22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 3.31 ERA, 63/22 K/BB, 3.8 fWAR)
Aside from the Tommy John surgery, 2018 could not have gone much better for Ohtani. He became baseball's first legitimate two-way star since Babe Ruth, both hitting and pitching at All Star levels. It's so, so awful that he won't get to pitch in 2019 due to the surgery, but Ohtani was everything even his wildest optimists hoped for in 2018, at least on a per-game basis.
Oakland Athletics: Jharel Cotton (did not play - injured)
Like Honeywell, Jharel Cotton did not appear in 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, and it looks like Matt Chapman would have been a better pick for this spot. My #2 pick behind Cotton, Franklin Barreto, played just 32 games and slashed .233/.253/.493, with his power looking great but his horrid plate discipline holding him back.
Seattle Mariners: Marco Gonzales (13-9, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 145/32 K/BB, 166.2 IP)
Hey look, a success that wasn't necessarily an obvious pre-season choice like Ohtani. After battling injuries for years, Gonzales was finally healthy in 2018, and he responded in a great way by going 13-9 with a 4.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a very solid 145/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 166.2 innings. He was pretty inconsistent start to start, but when he was on, he looked like the future ace the Cardinals thought they drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Gonzaga back in 2013.
Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun (2 HR, .222/.269/.333, 0 SB, 55 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR)
Ah, another bust (at least for now). For the second straight season, Calhoun struggled to catch on in the majors, and we'll have to wait another year to see whether his power is the real deal. Among rookies expected to make an impact in 2018, Calhoun was among the biggest disappointments.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna (26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR)
I don't think the prediction that Acuna would break out was a particularly novel one, and Acuna certainly lived up to the hype by slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs as a 20 year old. Before the season, there was plenty of praise heaped on him as a future superstar, and so far he has only made those claims stronger. Acuna will be one of the game's better outfielders, if not one of the best, for a long time.
Miami Marlins: Lewis Brinson (11 HR, .199/.240/.338, 2 SB, 56 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR)
On the flip side, Lewis Brinson sucked, to put it frankly. Though he had occasional outbursts of power, he struggled to make contact and only got as much playing time as he did because the Marlins just plain needed him there. I'd rank him ahead of Calhoun as the biggest disappointment of the season just because of his higher pre-season expectations, but the 24 year old can try again next year.
New York Mets: Amed Rosario (9 HR, .256/.295/.381, 24 SB, 85 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR)
While Rosario's numbers don't pop out, good defense at shortstop and better performance later in the season helped him put up an admirable year for a 22 year old. I expect Rosario to continue to develop in 2019 and may then have the breakout we're all waiting for.
Philadelphia Phillies: J.P. Crawford (3 HR, .214/.319/.393, 2 SB, 96 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
While Crawford finally began to get some regular playing time after years of being a top prospect, his .214/.319/.393 line over 49 games is still well short of expectations. There's talk that the Phillies might bring in Manny Machado, but if they decide to stick with Crawford, he'll have another opportunity to prove himself next year. He turns 24 in January so he's still young, but he has been stagnant for long enough that some doubt is beginning to creep in.
Washington Nationals: Victor Robles (3 HR, .288/.348/.525, 3 SB, 131 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR)
Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did this year, but an arm injury in April knocked him out for three months and by the time he returned, Soto was basically already Babe Ruth. Still, once he was called up for 21 games in September, he looked very good, slashing .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and playing his trademark great defense. It's not Robles' fault he was hurt for much of the season, and I see no reason to think he can't challenge for the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year Award.
Chicago Cubs: Eddie Butler (2-3, 5.62 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 49.2 IP)
I picked Butler as the Cubs' best breakout candidate, though I did note at the time that the roster was pretty much set and nobody was really likely to have a breakthrough season. Butler couldn't make it work in Chicago and was ultimately sent to Texas in the Cole Hamels deal, where he has been a mediocre reliever.
Cincinnati Reds: Luis Castillo (10-12, 4.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 165/49 K/BB, 169.2 IP)
So no, Castillo didn't break out, with his 3.12 ERA and 1.07 WHIP from 2017 being better than this year's marks of 4.30 and 1.22, respectively, though he did only throw 89.1 innings in 2017. However, Castillo looked much better in the second half, going 5-4 with a 2.44 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 11 starts, striking out 69 and walking 14 in 66.1 innings. He's perfectly capable of maintaining that over a full season, and I would not be surprised if next year was the big breakout.
Milwaukee Brewers: Josh Hader (6-1, 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP)
I was a little bit disappointed when the Brewers did not end up using Hader as a starter, but he was so good in relief this year (143 strikeouts...really??) that it's hard to regard 2018 as anything but an absolute success. Hader went from intriguing upside prospect to bullpen monster in one year, and he's likely not going anywhere.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 136/53 K/BB, 111.2 IP)
So Glasnow didn't exactly break out in 2018, but he did have consistent major league success for the first time in his career, so this is should be regarded as a partial success. I think the Rays will be a good place for him and that he could continue to build on his success next year.
St. Louis Cardinals: Miles Mikolas (18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 146/29 K/BB, 200.2 IP)
I don't think 2018 could have possibly gone better for Mikolas. He was very mediocre in his first three seasons in the majors from 2012-2014, but after three years in Japan from 2015-2017, he came back looking like an ace. He didn't overpower hitters, but he hit his spots and induced weak contact to make the NL All Star Team.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Taylor Clarke (did not play - spent year in AAA)
So Clarke did go 13-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 2018 - at AAA Reno. He never got his shot in the Arizona rotation in 2018, so he'll try again in 2019, when he'll be 26.
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon (5 HR, .232/.307/.376, 1 SB, 68 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
So he got his first significant MLB playing time, but ultimately he could not hang onto the first base job and slashed just .232/.307/.376 in 91 games. At this point, I'm not as confident in McMahon's ability to hold onto a first base job, with Ian Desmond currently getting time there and Grant Lavigne looking to make a quick run through the minors.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP)
Buehler had a fantastic rookie season in 2018, putting up a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 24 games (23 starts) before dominating in the postseason. That marks three straight seasons in which a rookie put together not just a good but a great season, following Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger. Buehler looks like an ace in the making and will likely remain in the LA rotation for a long time.
San Diego Padres: Dinelson Lamet (did not play - injured)
Okay so in all, I lost three of my breakout picks to Tommy John surgery. That's unfortunate, because I was really looking forward to what Lamet could do in 2018 after striking out 28.7% of his opponents as a rookie in 2017. My second pick, Luis Perdomo, wasn't much better: 1-6, 7.05 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 39/22 K/BB.
San Francisco Giants: Chris Stratton (10-10, 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 112/54 K/BB, 145 IP)
The numbers weren't great, but on the positive side, Stratton pitched a full season for the first time in his career and even threw a complete game, two hit shutout on September 14th against the Rockies. He'll never reach the potential the Giants thought he had when they took him in the first round (20th overall) out of Mississippi State in 2012, but he looks like he could be a moderately useful back-end starter.
Showing posts with label Miguel Andujar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miguel Andujar. Show all posts
Monday, November 5, 2018
Sunday, November 4, 2018
Biggest Takeaways From the 2018 Season
In my second installment of this piece (see 2017 version here), I'll be looking at exactly what the most important and most memorable developments from the 2018 season were. First off, congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, taking home their ninth World Series title and fourth in the past fourteen years. What else should we remember about 2018?
Pitching Staff Management is Fundamentally Changing
When Buck Showalter failed to use relief-ace Zach Britton in the 2016 AL Wild Card Game because he was waiting for a "save situation," even as the game went into extra innings, it provided the spark that would slowly change pitching staff management forever. We saw it a little bit in the 2017 playoffs, then in 2018, the ball really got rolling. Starters are throwing less than ever, and the Rays (and to a lesser extent the A's) even experimented with openers. Guys like Ryne Stanek, Diego Castillo, Hunter Wood, and Sergio Romo served as openers for Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos, and the Rays benefited. I'd expect more teams to join the trend next season. In the playoffs, hooks came quicker than ever, and many of us were surprised to see starters come out for the seventh inning at all when they did. Closers came in in the eighth inning, and hopefully we'll see more of that next season. Whatever you think about bullpening or openers, the starting pitcher is going to continue to recede.
Data Analytics Works
The final four teams in the playoffs - the Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and Brewers - were four of the teams that relied the most heavily on analytics. All those high school coaches, barstool pundits, and opinionated uncles who think "the nerds are ruining the game," they might want to either thank them for their favorite team's success. The "eye test" and "gut feelings" just don't match up to empirical data, and we're getting more and more of the latter every year. Sabermetricians already nearly perfected offensive evaluation with stats like wOBA and wRC+, and Statcast is even beginning to dip its foot into quantifying something we have struggled to understand forever: defense. Fielding percentage is an awful judge of ability, and sabermetric stats like DRS (defensive runs saved) and UZR (ultimate zone rating) just began to scratch the surface. With Statcast, we're at least beginning to understand outfield defense with stats like catch probability and outs above average. We still haven't quite figured out how to quantify infield defense with Statcast; that's up next.
Parity is Becoming a Thing of the Past
Unless the MLB does something, our divisions will look more and more like the 2018 AL East, with the Red Sox and Yankees blowing everyone out and the Blue Jays and Orioles sitting at the bottom with no chance. Rebuilds work, and the more you commit to them, the better they do. Look at the Astros. Playing .500 ball is not much better for your fanbase than playing .400 ball, which is in turn not much better than playing .300 ball. Simply put, if you're not winning, then it pays to tear down the team and just lose until your stockpiled prospects reach the majors. That's what we're seeing in Miami, Baltimore, Chicago (White Sox), and Detroit. This is both good for baseball and bad; it's good because it enables small market teams like the ones listed to compete with the Boston's, New York's, and Los Angeles's of the world, but it is bad because it just leads to awful teams and boring division races. I'm not sure what the solution is, but don't expect more than two or three exciting division races per season until something is done.
Mike Trout Might Be the Best Player Ever
The idea that Mike Trout might be one of the best who ever lived entered the national conversation a few years ago, but he might actually end up being the best player ever. Eight years into his career and only a few months after turning 27, he has 240 home runs, a .307/.416/.573 slash line, 189 stolen bases, and 64.7 fWAR. His 172 career wRC+ ranks sixth all time, behind only Babe Ruth (197), Ted Williams (188), Lou Gehrig (173), Rogers Hornsby (173), and Barry Bonds (173). The 64.7 fWAR are already 89th on the all time list, despite every single player ahead of him on the list having played more than 500 more games than him. He's already ahead of plenty of Hall of Famers, from Yogi Berra to Duke Snider to Ernie Banks to Willie Stargell, and he's likely to catch Tony Gwynn and Craig Biggio within the first month of 2019. And he just turned 27 on August 7th.
Clayton Kershaw is No Longer the Best Pitcher in Baseball
It's been a great run for Clayton Kershaw. From 2011-2017, his age 23-29 seasons, he went 118-41 with a 2.10 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 1623/283 strikeout to walk ratio over 1452 innings, good for a 29.1% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate. By those numbers the average season saw him go 17-6 with a 2.10 ERA and a 232/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 207.1 innings. Kershaw's 47.4 pitching fWAR led the majors by a massive margin, 11.2 ahead of second place Max Scherzer's 36.2. That's not only a great run, but one of the best in history. However, there is reason to believe that that run is coming to an end. Kershaw turns 31 in March, and while that's not old, he figures to be past his prime. This past season, he went 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 26 starts, striking out 155 and walking 29 in 161.1 innings. Those numbers are great, yes, but not Kershaw great. His fastball velocity has been steadily declining from 94.2 MPH in 2015 to 93.6, 92.8, and 90.8 in the last three seasons as he has battled back problems. That's not to say Kershaw isn't still good; he's one of the best in the game and I expect him to contend for the NL Cy Young Award next season, but he's not *the best* anymore.
Something is Happening in Oakland
The A's went 97-65 in 2018 and captured the second AL Wild Card, though based on that record they deserved better. What people might not realize, though, is that they are here to stay. Their entire core outside of Jed Lowrie and second half addition Mike Fiers was young, with guys like Khris Davis (48 HR, .247/.326/.549), Matt Chapman (24 HR, .278/.356/.508), Matt Olson (29 HR, .247/.335/.453), and Lowrie (23 HR, .267/.353/.448) leading the offense and Sean Manaea (12-9, 3.59 ERA), Fiers (5-2, 3.74 ERA post trade), Daniel Mengden (7-6, 4.05 ERA), Blake Treinen (0.78 ERA, 100/21 K/BB), and Lou Trivino (2.92 ERA, 82/31 K/BB) leading the pitching staff. Out of that entire list, only Lowrie is a free agent, though Manaea might not pitch at all in 2019 due to shoulder surgery. However, on the flip side, Jharel Cotton will be back from Tommy John surgery. There are also prospects on the horizon, with Jesus Luzardo, Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo, and Ramon Laureano looking to break through sooner rather than later. Nobody saw it coming, but this team is very good and it's built to last. They're not going anywhere in 2019.
New Faces Everywhere
In 2017, we saw the rise of Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Corey Seager, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and others to stardom, and this year, the youth movement continued. Mookie Betts, after a relative down year in 2017 (.264/.344/.459), bounced back with a huge 2018 that saw him slash .346/.438/.640 with 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases, and he's likely to take home the AL MVP Award. Now with 28.7 fWAR over the past three seasons, he has elevated himself to superstar levels. Alex Bregman had a huge season, building on his .284/.352/.475 2017 season by slashing .286/.394/.532 with 31 home runs and 51 doubles, surprising many by being the best hitter in a formidable Houston lineup. The A's have a of young defensive wiz that can also swing the bat in Matt Chapman (24 HR, .278/.356/.508). On the mound, quite a few new starting pitchers turned into aces. Aaron Nola posted a 2.37 ERA and looks poised to lead the Phillies into contention, while Blake Snell dropped his ERA below 2.00. Kyle Freeland even got in on the fun from Colorado, becoming the first Rockies' starter since Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 to drop his ERA below 3.00. Josh Hader was an unstoppable force in the Milwaukee bullpen, striking out 143 batters in just 81.1 innings (but not without dodging controversy). Oh, and out of Betts, Bregman, Chapman, Nola, Snell, Freeland, and Hader, Betts is the oldest and even he will play the entire 2019 season at just 26 years old.
Don't Forget the Rookies
This year's rookie class was among the best we've ever seen. Shohei Ohtani fulfilled the lofty expectations placed on him and while he won't get to pitch in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, he has already elevated himself to stardom with both his bat and his arm. Teenager Juan Soto took the baseball world by storm by sprinting up from Class A to the majors in just one month, then slashed .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs against much, much older competition. Ronald Acuna, less than a year older than Soto, was equally impressive by slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases for the Braves. Walker Buehler was incredible in Los Angeles, posting a 2.62 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 151/37 strikeout to walk ratio before dominating in the postseason. Miguel Andujar stepped up when the Yankees needed him, slashing .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, while his teammate, Gleyber Torres, slashed .271/.340/.480 with 24 home runs. Harrison Bader showed a decent bat (12 HR, .264/.334/.422) but immediately established himself as one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. Even in that long paragraph of names, I left out guys like Joey Wendle, Ryan Yarbrough, Jack Flaherty, Lou Trivino, Brian Anderson, Jaime Barria, Brad Keller, and Joey Lucchesi.
And Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is coming in April
Pitching Staff Management is Fundamentally Changing
When Buck Showalter failed to use relief-ace Zach Britton in the 2016 AL Wild Card Game because he was waiting for a "save situation," even as the game went into extra innings, it provided the spark that would slowly change pitching staff management forever. We saw it a little bit in the 2017 playoffs, then in 2018, the ball really got rolling. Starters are throwing less than ever, and the Rays (and to a lesser extent the A's) even experimented with openers. Guys like Ryne Stanek, Diego Castillo, Hunter Wood, and Sergio Romo served as openers for Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos, and the Rays benefited. I'd expect more teams to join the trend next season. In the playoffs, hooks came quicker than ever, and many of us were surprised to see starters come out for the seventh inning at all when they did. Closers came in in the eighth inning, and hopefully we'll see more of that next season. Whatever you think about bullpening or openers, the starting pitcher is going to continue to recede.
Data Analytics Works
The final four teams in the playoffs - the Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and Brewers - were four of the teams that relied the most heavily on analytics. All those high school coaches, barstool pundits, and opinionated uncles who think "the nerds are ruining the game," they might want to either thank them for their favorite team's success. The "eye test" and "gut feelings" just don't match up to empirical data, and we're getting more and more of the latter every year. Sabermetricians already nearly perfected offensive evaluation with stats like wOBA and wRC+, and Statcast is even beginning to dip its foot into quantifying something we have struggled to understand forever: defense. Fielding percentage is an awful judge of ability, and sabermetric stats like DRS (defensive runs saved) and UZR (ultimate zone rating) just began to scratch the surface. With Statcast, we're at least beginning to understand outfield defense with stats like catch probability and outs above average. We still haven't quite figured out how to quantify infield defense with Statcast; that's up next.
Parity is Becoming a Thing of the Past
Unless the MLB does something, our divisions will look more and more like the 2018 AL East, with the Red Sox and Yankees blowing everyone out and the Blue Jays and Orioles sitting at the bottom with no chance. Rebuilds work, and the more you commit to them, the better they do. Look at the Astros. Playing .500 ball is not much better for your fanbase than playing .400 ball, which is in turn not much better than playing .300 ball. Simply put, if you're not winning, then it pays to tear down the team and just lose until your stockpiled prospects reach the majors. That's what we're seeing in Miami, Baltimore, Chicago (White Sox), and Detroit. This is both good for baseball and bad; it's good because it enables small market teams like the ones listed to compete with the Boston's, New York's, and Los Angeles's of the world, but it is bad because it just leads to awful teams and boring division races. I'm not sure what the solution is, but don't expect more than two or three exciting division races per season until something is done.
Mike Trout Might Be the Best Player Ever
The idea that Mike Trout might be one of the best who ever lived entered the national conversation a few years ago, but he might actually end up being the best player ever. Eight years into his career and only a few months after turning 27, he has 240 home runs, a .307/.416/.573 slash line, 189 stolen bases, and 64.7 fWAR. His 172 career wRC+ ranks sixth all time, behind only Babe Ruth (197), Ted Williams (188), Lou Gehrig (173), Rogers Hornsby (173), and Barry Bonds (173). The 64.7 fWAR are already 89th on the all time list, despite every single player ahead of him on the list having played more than 500 more games than him. He's already ahead of plenty of Hall of Famers, from Yogi Berra to Duke Snider to Ernie Banks to Willie Stargell, and he's likely to catch Tony Gwynn and Craig Biggio within the first month of 2019. And he just turned 27 on August 7th.
It's been a great run for Clayton Kershaw. From 2011-2017, his age 23-29 seasons, he went 118-41 with a 2.10 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 1623/283 strikeout to walk ratio over 1452 innings, good for a 29.1% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate. By those numbers the average season saw him go 17-6 with a 2.10 ERA and a 232/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 207.1 innings. Kershaw's 47.4 pitching fWAR led the majors by a massive margin, 11.2 ahead of second place Max Scherzer's 36.2. That's not only a great run, but one of the best in history. However, there is reason to believe that that run is coming to an end. Kershaw turns 31 in March, and while that's not old, he figures to be past his prime. This past season, he went 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 26 starts, striking out 155 and walking 29 in 161.1 innings. Those numbers are great, yes, but not Kershaw great. His fastball velocity has been steadily declining from 94.2 MPH in 2015 to 93.6, 92.8, and 90.8 in the last three seasons as he has battled back problems. That's not to say Kershaw isn't still good; he's one of the best in the game and I expect him to contend for the NL Cy Young Award next season, but he's not *the best* anymore.
Something is Happening in Oakland
The A's went 97-65 in 2018 and captured the second AL Wild Card, though based on that record they deserved better. What people might not realize, though, is that they are here to stay. Their entire core outside of Jed Lowrie and second half addition Mike Fiers was young, with guys like Khris Davis (48 HR, .247/.326/.549), Matt Chapman (24 HR, .278/.356/.508), Matt Olson (29 HR, .247/.335/.453), and Lowrie (23 HR, .267/.353/.448) leading the offense and Sean Manaea (12-9, 3.59 ERA), Fiers (5-2, 3.74 ERA post trade), Daniel Mengden (7-6, 4.05 ERA), Blake Treinen (0.78 ERA, 100/21 K/BB), and Lou Trivino (2.92 ERA, 82/31 K/BB) leading the pitching staff. Out of that entire list, only Lowrie is a free agent, though Manaea might not pitch at all in 2019 due to shoulder surgery. However, on the flip side, Jharel Cotton will be back from Tommy John surgery. There are also prospects on the horizon, with Jesus Luzardo, Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo, and Ramon Laureano looking to break through sooner rather than later. Nobody saw it coming, but this team is very good and it's built to last. They're not going anywhere in 2019.
New Faces Everywhere
In 2017, we saw the rise of Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Corey Seager, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and others to stardom, and this year, the youth movement continued. Mookie Betts, after a relative down year in 2017 (.264/.344/.459), bounced back with a huge 2018 that saw him slash .346/.438/.640 with 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases, and he's likely to take home the AL MVP Award. Now with 28.7 fWAR over the past three seasons, he has elevated himself to superstar levels. Alex Bregman had a huge season, building on his .284/.352/.475 2017 season by slashing .286/.394/.532 with 31 home runs and 51 doubles, surprising many by being the best hitter in a formidable Houston lineup. The A's have a of young defensive wiz that can also swing the bat in Matt Chapman (24 HR, .278/.356/.508). On the mound, quite a few new starting pitchers turned into aces. Aaron Nola posted a 2.37 ERA and looks poised to lead the Phillies into contention, while Blake Snell dropped his ERA below 2.00. Kyle Freeland even got in on the fun from Colorado, becoming the first Rockies' starter since Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 to drop his ERA below 3.00. Josh Hader was an unstoppable force in the Milwaukee bullpen, striking out 143 batters in just 81.1 innings (but not without dodging controversy). Oh, and out of Betts, Bregman, Chapman, Nola, Snell, Freeland, and Hader, Betts is the oldest and even he will play the entire 2019 season at just 26 years old.
Don't Forget the Rookies
This year's rookie class was among the best we've ever seen. Shohei Ohtani fulfilled the lofty expectations placed on him and while he won't get to pitch in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, he has already elevated himself to stardom with both his bat and his arm. Teenager Juan Soto took the baseball world by storm by sprinting up from Class A to the majors in just one month, then slashed .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs against much, much older competition. Ronald Acuna, less than a year older than Soto, was equally impressive by slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases for the Braves. Walker Buehler was incredible in Los Angeles, posting a 2.62 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 151/37 strikeout to walk ratio before dominating in the postseason. Miguel Andujar stepped up when the Yankees needed him, slashing .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, while his teammate, Gleyber Torres, slashed .271/.340/.480 with 24 home runs. Harrison Bader showed a decent bat (12 HR, .264/.334/.422) but immediately established himself as one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. Even in that long paragraph of names, I left out guys like Joey Wendle, Ryan Yarbrough, Jack Flaherty, Lou Trivino, Brian Anderson, Jaime Barria, Brad Keller, and Joey Lucchesi.
And Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is coming in April
Tuesday, October 9, 2018
2018 Dugout Edge Regular Season Awards: Rookies, Managers, and Relievers
These awards are based on how I would assign them, not on how I believe they will end up. MVP's and Cy Young's were posted previously.
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels)
Hitting Stats: 22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 10 SB, 152 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 104 games
Pitching Stats: 4-2, 3.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB, 51.2 IP in 10 starts
Honestly, I don't think this race should be particularly close. Shohei Ohtani was clearly the superior rookie to me, generating more offensive fWAR than Miguel Andujar and adding more than 50 innings of above average pitching to roughly match Andujar's number of plate appearances/total batters faced. At the plate, Ohtani slashed .285/.361/.564 with 22 home runs for a 152 wRC+, the latter of which would have placed him fourth in the American League if he had qualified, right between Alex Bregman's 157 and Jose Ramirez's 147. As a pitcher, he posted a 3.31 ERA and a 63/22 strikeout to walk ratio over ten starts, including an absolute gem on April 8th when he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and 12 strikeouts against the A's. The numbers alone make him the best rookie in the American League, but if you put them in context and just think about how amazing the fact that he was pitching and hitting at All Star levels is, and it really should be no competition here.
Runner-Up: Joey Wendle (Tampa Bay Rays)
Stats: 7 HR, .300/.354/.435, 16 SB, 116 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 139 games
In the Ohtani-Andujar Rookie of the Year race, Joey Wendle didn't get nearly enough credit. An older rookie at 28, Wendle slashed .300/.354/.435 with 16 stolen bases and very good defense, impacting the game in very way except power. Even with only hitting seven home runs, he still knocked 33 doubles and six triples for a total of 46 extra base hits, good for third among AL rookies behind only Miguel Andujar (76) and Niko Goodrum (48): pretty good for a guy where power is his worst attribute.
Honrable Mention: Miguel Andujar (New York Yankees)
Stats: 27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 149 games
I'm just not as high on Andujar as many people are, though you could make a very good argument to put him ahead of Wendle and it's pretty close in my book. He did still have a great season for a rookie. The 23 year old slashed .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, his power stroke helping the Yankees get plenty of production out of what looked like a murky infield situation pre-season. He didn't get on base much, but the power was unmatched by any AL rookies outside of Ohtani. He also got better as the season went on and had his best month in August, slashing .320/.344/.623 with ten home runs in 30 games, again having difficulty getting on base but really showing off the power. On defense, he helped the Yankees just about as much as Ohtani did as a DH, as in not much.
Others
Gleyber Torres (NYY, 24 HR, .271/.340/.480, 6 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR)
Brad Keller (KC, 9-6, 3.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 96/50 K/BB)
Ryan Yarbrough (TB, 16-6, 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 128/50 K/BB)
Jaime Barria (LAA, 10-9, 3.41 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB)
Willy Adames (TB, 10 HR, .278/.348/.406, 6 SB, 109 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR)
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves)
Stats: 26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 111 games
This was a difficult decision because Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto had virtually identical seasons, with their OPS's (Acuna .917/Soto .923), wOBA's (.388/.392), and fWAR's (3.7/3.7) knotting them together. While they were essentially equal offensively (Acuna has the upper hand in power, Soto in on-base percentage/plate discipline), Acuna was the better defender. Fangraphs didn't like his defense, but Statcast gave him five outs above average to Soto's four below average. Add in his 16 stolen bases, and I think Acuna has just enough to beat Soto by a hair. The 20 year old finished his rookie year slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, heating up as the season went on and slashing .322/.403/.625 with 19 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 68 games after the All Star Break. In fact, in August, he slashed .336/.405/.698 with eleven home runs and six stolen bases in 30 games, a pace that would give him nearly 60 home runs and over 30 stolen bases over a full season. Regardless of where he stands with regard to Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna had a fantastic rookie year.
Runner-Up: Juan Soto (Washington Nationals)
Stats: 22 HR, .292/.406/.517, 5 SB, 145 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 116 games
As you can see from the stat line, Juan Soto had a very, very similar season to Acuna. While I think Acuna beats him by a hair, I want to go over just how incredible the year was. Soto missed all but 32 games of the 2017 season with injuries, then turned 19 that October. Since he had only played 29 games above complex league baseball (the lowest level of the minors), it made sense to start him at Class A Hagerstown and let him work his way up. 16 games and a .373/.486/.814 slash line later, he was at High A Potomac, where he slashed .371/.466/.790 over 15 games. Up at AA Harrisburg, a feat in and of itself considering his situation, he slashed .323/.400/.581 over eight games and found himself in the majors by May. In the majors, he still didn't stop mashing, slashing .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs over 116 games. Perhaps even more incredible than the production was the plate discipline he showed, as evidenced by a 99/79 strikeout to walk ratio (20% to 16%). In fact, his 21.9% swing rate on pitches outside the zone was 14th best in baseball among players with at least 450 plate appearances, which is pretty cool in its own right but downright incredible when you consider he's a teenager who began the season in Class A. In the box, he looked as poised and professional as anyone on the field, though his defense and base running could definitely use some work.
Honorable Mention: Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Stats: 8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP in 24 games (23 starts)
Walker Buehler was about as good as rookie pitchers get. Over 24 games (23 starts), he posted a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP while striking out 151 and walking just 37 over 137.1 innings, good for a 27.9% strikeout rate and just a 6.8% walk rate. Component ratios like that tend to be sustainable, and while he wasn't Corey Seager or Cody Bellinger this year, Buehler is yet another great Dodger rookie. While he did have a tendency to get blown up from time to time, allowing at least four earned runs in five separate games, he closed the season on absolute lockdown mode, going 4-2 with a 1.55 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an 87/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.1 innings from July 31st onwards. He held the Padres hitless for six innings on May 4th and limited the Cardinals to just four baserunners over eight shutout innings on September 14th, striking out nine in the process.
Others
Harrison Bader (STL, 12 HR, .264/.334/.422, 15 SB, 106 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR)
Jack Flaherty (STL, 8-9, 3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 182/59 K/BB)
Brian Anderson (MIA, 11 HR, .273/.357/.400, 2 SB, 113 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR)
Dereck Rodriguez (6-4, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 89/36 K/BB)
Joey Lucchesi (SD, 8-9, 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 145/43 K/BB)
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (3rd in AL East), 10 game improvement over 2017
I don't think anybody expected the Rays to win 90 games in the stacked AL East this year, but they did just that in Kevin Cash's first year as manager. The team won not by hitting for power (.406 slugging percentage was 17th in baseball), but by getting on base (.333 on-base percentage was third best) and by mixing up their pitching staff. They did so by famously employing the opener, starting many games with a reliever to get the opposing team's best hitters out before going to a starter for the longer run. The results were great; their 90 ERA- beat last year's 94 ERA- and was far better than 2016's 102 ERA-, and they got these results without burning anybody out. In fact, only two pitchers (Blake Snell and Ryan Yarbrough) threw more than 100 innings, and no true reliever threw more than 70 innings. Instead, ten different pitchers threw between 50 and 70 innings as the workload was evenly balanced out, and almost all were effective with only one posting an ERA above 4.65 (Jacob Faria at 5.40). Cash pioneered a change in baseball that I think will have a lasting impact on how teams try to win.
Runner-Up: Bob Melvin (Oakland Athletics)
Record: 97-65, .599 WPCT (2nd in AL West), 22 game improvement over 2017
While I stand by giving the award to Kevin Cash, Bob Melvin did a fantastic job in helping his team improve 22 games, going from last in the AL West to a Wild Card spot. The A's put up the fourth highest slugging percentage in the majors (.439) on the backs of Khris Davis (.549), Matt Chapman (.508), and Stephen Piscotty (.491). Melvin was able to bring out the best in his offense, and it paid dividends. On the pitching side, he also experimented (to a lesser extent) with the opener, and his team's 92 ERA- was significantly better than 2017's 109.
Honorable Mention: Scott Servais (Seattle Mariners)
Record: 89-73, .549 WPCT (3rd in AL West), 11 game improvement over 2017
Based on the fact that they scored 34 fewer runs than their opponents in 2018, the Mariners significantly over-performed on their win-loss record mostly due to their 36-21 record in one run games and 14-1 record in extra innings games. While that doesn't bode well for future, sustained success in Seattle, I think it reflects well on Servais's ability to manage in close games. I also think the 89 wins is pretty impressive for a team where, frankly, I don't think there was too much talent.
Others
Aaron Boone (NYY, 100-62)
Alex Cora (BOS, 108-54)
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Brian Snitker (Atlanta Braves)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (1st in NL East), 18 game improvement over 2017
Brian Snitker took a very young team coming off a 72-90 record and reversed it straight up to a 90-72 record. How young were the Braves? Touki Toussaint, who turned 22 in June, was the sixth youngest player to appear for the Braves this year, with four players being born in 1997. To be able to take a team that young and get this much success out of them is extremely impressive. Next year, I think the Braves will be even better.
Runner-Up: Craig Counsell (Milwaukee Brewers)
Record: 96-67, .589 WPCT (1st in NL Central), 9.5 game improvement over 2017
Craig Counsell was dealt an interesting hand, with baseball's deepest outfield and an infield that seemed somewhat mismatched. However, he handled it seemingly with ease, shuffling around his position players to get the right guys playing time while maintaining production. His team got hot at just the right time, winning their last eight games (including game 163) to win the NL Central. I think you could make a strong case for Counsell as the NL Manager of the Year.
Honorable Mention: Bud Black (Colorado Rockies)
Record: 91-72, .558 WPCT (2nd in NL West), 3.5 game improvement over 2017
Bud Black has done a great job turning Colorado into a pitching-oriented team, helping facilitate the rise of Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Anderson, Scott Oberg, and more. I really don't think the Rockies' roster is *that* good, so to be able to squeeze so many wins out of a team with no offense and very young pitchers stuck pitching half their games in pitchers' hell is very impressive. If Rockies management ever got Black some hitters outside of Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Trevor Story, this could be a very good team going forward.
Others
Dave Roberts (LAD, 92-71)
Joe Maddon (CHC, 95-68)
American League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Blake Treinen (Oakland Athletics)
Stats: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 38 SV, 100/21 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 68 appearances
Blake Treinen completely turned his career around when he was traded from Washington to Oakland in 2017. With a 5.73 ERA and an 18.9% strikeout rate pre-trade and a 2.13 ERA and a 26.9% strikeout rate post trade, he successfully made the long-awaited transition from thrower to pitcher. This year, he was off the charts: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 100/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 80.1 innings. He struck out 31.7% of those that he faced while walking just 6.7%, and he allowed just one earned run after July 21st. In fact, in those final 30.1 innings, he had a 0.30 ERA, a 0.56 WHIP, and a 36/3 strikeout to walk ratio. That's a 32.7% strikeout rate and a 2.7% walk rate if you're keeping track at home. 98 mile per hour diving two seamers will do that.
Runner-Up: Edwin Diaz (Seattle Mariners)
Stats: 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 57 SV, 124/17 K/BB, 73.1 IP in 73 appearances
Edwin Diaz finished with the second most saves (57) ever for a single season, but that's not why he ranked second on this list because personally, I don't care. What's more astounding is Diaz's 124/17 strikeout to walk ratio, which translates to a 44.3% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. Imagine for every time you go through the lineup, four of the nine hitters strike out. That was what facing Diaz was like this season, with the 44.3% rate leading the American League this year (min. 50 IP).
Others
Jose LeClerc (TEX, 1.56 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 85/25 K/BB, 57.2 IP)
Collin McHugh (HOU, 1.99 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 94/21 K/BB, 72.1 IP)
Chad Green (NYY, 2.50 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 94/15 K/BB, 75.2 IP)
National League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Josh Hader (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 12 SV, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP in 55 appearances
I find it just a but counter-intuitive to give this award to a pitcher with a 2.43 ERA, but Josh Hader was so good in every other facet of pitching that it had to go to him. While his ERA was a bit elevated in the realm of elite relievers, his 143/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings was absolutely incredible. His 46.7% strikeout rate (nearly half) not only led all of baseball (min. 50 IP), it was the fourth highest strikeout rate ever, behind only 2014 Aroldis Chapman (52.5%), 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%), and 2017 Kimbrel (49.6%). In addition, by only allowing 36 hits and 30 walks, his WHIP was just 0.81. On April 30th, he had perhaps his best game of the season, striking out eight of the nine batters he faced (including Joey Votto), walking the other batter.
Runner-Up: Jeremy Jeffress (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 1.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 15 SV, 89/27 K/BB, 76.2 IP in 73 appearances
The Brewers' bullpen was pretty good, wasn't it? Jeremy Jeffress bounced back from a down 2017 (4.68 ERA, 51/34 K/BB) to post his best season this year, finishing with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. His 89/27 strikeout to walk ratio led to a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate, but by keeping the hits from falling and especially limiting extra base hits (just 12 allowed all year), Jeffress kept the damage to a minimum even in the worst case scenarios, never allowing more than two runs in any of his 73 appearances. He even had a stretch from April 9th to May 27th in which he tossed 22.2 shutout innings on five hits, six walks, and 21 strikeouts for a 0.49 WHIP.
Others
Adam Ottavino (COL, 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 112/36 K/BB, 77.2 IP)
Kirby Yates (SD, 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 90/17 K/BB, 63 IP)
Sean Doolittle (WSH, 1.60 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 60/6 K/BB, 45 IP)
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels)
Hitting Stats: 22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 10 SB, 152 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 104 games
Pitching Stats: 4-2, 3.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB, 51.2 IP in 10 starts
Honestly, I don't think this race should be particularly close. Shohei Ohtani was clearly the superior rookie to me, generating more offensive fWAR than Miguel Andujar and adding more than 50 innings of above average pitching to roughly match Andujar's number of plate appearances/total batters faced. At the plate, Ohtani slashed .285/.361/.564 with 22 home runs for a 152 wRC+, the latter of which would have placed him fourth in the American League if he had qualified, right between Alex Bregman's 157 and Jose Ramirez's 147. As a pitcher, he posted a 3.31 ERA and a 63/22 strikeout to walk ratio over ten starts, including an absolute gem on April 8th when he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and 12 strikeouts against the A's. The numbers alone make him the best rookie in the American League, but if you put them in context and just think about how amazing the fact that he was pitching and hitting at All Star levels is, and it really should be no competition here.
Runner-Up: Joey Wendle (Tampa Bay Rays)
Stats: 7 HR, .300/.354/.435, 16 SB, 116 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 139 games
In the Ohtani-Andujar Rookie of the Year race, Joey Wendle didn't get nearly enough credit. An older rookie at 28, Wendle slashed .300/.354/.435 with 16 stolen bases and very good defense, impacting the game in very way except power. Even with only hitting seven home runs, he still knocked 33 doubles and six triples for a total of 46 extra base hits, good for third among AL rookies behind only Miguel Andujar (76) and Niko Goodrum (48): pretty good for a guy where power is his worst attribute.
Honrable Mention: Miguel Andujar (New York Yankees)
Stats: 27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 149 games
I'm just not as high on Andujar as many people are, though you could make a very good argument to put him ahead of Wendle and it's pretty close in my book. He did still have a great season for a rookie. The 23 year old slashed .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, his power stroke helping the Yankees get plenty of production out of what looked like a murky infield situation pre-season. He didn't get on base much, but the power was unmatched by any AL rookies outside of Ohtani. He also got better as the season went on and had his best month in August, slashing .320/.344/.623 with ten home runs in 30 games, again having difficulty getting on base but really showing off the power. On defense, he helped the Yankees just about as much as Ohtani did as a DH, as in not much.
Others
Gleyber Torres (NYY, 24 HR, .271/.340/.480, 6 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR)
Brad Keller (KC, 9-6, 3.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 96/50 K/BB)
Ryan Yarbrough (TB, 16-6, 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 128/50 K/BB)
Jaime Barria (LAA, 10-9, 3.41 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB)
Willy Adames (TB, 10 HR, .278/.348/.406, 6 SB, 109 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR)
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves)
Stats: 26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 111 games
This was a difficult decision because Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto had virtually identical seasons, with their OPS's (Acuna .917/Soto .923), wOBA's (.388/.392), and fWAR's (3.7/3.7) knotting them together. While they were essentially equal offensively (Acuna has the upper hand in power, Soto in on-base percentage/plate discipline), Acuna was the better defender. Fangraphs didn't like his defense, but Statcast gave him five outs above average to Soto's four below average. Add in his 16 stolen bases, and I think Acuna has just enough to beat Soto by a hair. The 20 year old finished his rookie year slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, heating up as the season went on and slashing .322/.403/.625 with 19 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 68 games after the All Star Break. In fact, in August, he slashed .336/.405/.698 with eleven home runs and six stolen bases in 30 games, a pace that would give him nearly 60 home runs and over 30 stolen bases over a full season. Regardless of where he stands with regard to Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna had a fantastic rookie year.
Runner-Up: Juan Soto (Washington Nationals)
Stats: 22 HR, .292/.406/.517, 5 SB, 145 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 116 games
As you can see from the stat line, Juan Soto had a very, very similar season to Acuna. While I think Acuna beats him by a hair, I want to go over just how incredible the year was. Soto missed all but 32 games of the 2017 season with injuries, then turned 19 that October. Since he had only played 29 games above complex league baseball (the lowest level of the minors), it made sense to start him at Class A Hagerstown and let him work his way up. 16 games and a .373/.486/.814 slash line later, he was at High A Potomac, where he slashed .371/.466/.790 over 15 games. Up at AA Harrisburg, a feat in and of itself considering his situation, he slashed .323/.400/.581 over eight games and found himself in the majors by May. In the majors, he still didn't stop mashing, slashing .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs over 116 games. Perhaps even more incredible than the production was the plate discipline he showed, as evidenced by a 99/79 strikeout to walk ratio (20% to 16%). In fact, his 21.9% swing rate on pitches outside the zone was 14th best in baseball among players with at least 450 plate appearances, which is pretty cool in its own right but downright incredible when you consider he's a teenager who began the season in Class A. In the box, he looked as poised and professional as anyone on the field, though his defense and base running could definitely use some work.
Honorable Mention: Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Stats: 8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP in 24 games (23 starts)
Walker Buehler was about as good as rookie pitchers get. Over 24 games (23 starts), he posted a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP while striking out 151 and walking just 37 over 137.1 innings, good for a 27.9% strikeout rate and just a 6.8% walk rate. Component ratios like that tend to be sustainable, and while he wasn't Corey Seager or Cody Bellinger this year, Buehler is yet another great Dodger rookie. While he did have a tendency to get blown up from time to time, allowing at least four earned runs in five separate games, he closed the season on absolute lockdown mode, going 4-2 with a 1.55 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an 87/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.1 innings from July 31st onwards. He held the Padres hitless for six innings on May 4th and limited the Cardinals to just four baserunners over eight shutout innings on September 14th, striking out nine in the process.
Others
Harrison Bader (STL, 12 HR, .264/.334/.422, 15 SB, 106 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR)
Jack Flaherty (STL, 8-9, 3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 182/59 K/BB)
Brian Anderson (MIA, 11 HR, .273/.357/.400, 2 SB, 113 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR)
Dereck Rodriguez (6-4, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 89/36 K/BB)
Joey Lucchesi (SD, 8-9, 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 145/43 K/BB)
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (3rd in AL East), 10 game improvement over 2017
I don't think anybody expected the Rays to win 90 games in the stacked AL East this year, but they did just that in Kevin Cash's first year as manager. The team won not by hitting for power (.406 slugging percentage was 17th in baseball), but by getting on base (.333 on-base percentage was third best) and by mixing up their pitching staff. They did so by famously employing the opener, starting many games with a reliever to get the opposing team's best hitters out before going to a starter for the longer run. The results were great; their 90 ERA- beat last year's 94 ERA- and was far better than 2016's 102 ERA-, and they got these results without burning anybody out. In fact, only two pitchers (Blake Snell and Ryan Yarbrough) threw more than 100 innings, and no true reliever threw more than 70 innings. Instead, ten different pitchers threw between 50 and 70 innings as the workload was evenly balanced out, and almost all were effective with only one posting an ERA above 4.65 (Jacob Faria at 5.40). Cash pioneered a change in baseball that I think will have a lasting impact on how teams try to win.
Runner-Up: Bob Melvin (Oakland Athletics)
Record: 97-65, .599 WPCT (2nd in AL West), 22 game improvement over 2017
While I stand by giving the award to Kevin Cash, Bob Melvin did a fantastic job in helping his team improve 22 games, going from last in the AL West to a Wild Card spot. The A's put up the fourth highest slugging percentage in the majors (.439) on the backs of Khris Davis (.549), Matt Chapman (.508), and Stephen Piscotty (.491). Melvin was able to bring out the best in his offense, and it paid dividends. On the pitching side, he also experimented (to a lesser extent) with the opener, and his team's 92 ERA- was significantly better than 2017's 109.
Honorable Mention: Scott Servais (Seattle Mariners)
Record: 89-73, .549 WPCT (3rd in AL West), 11 game improvement over 2017
Based on the fact that they scored 34 fewer runs than their opponents in 2018, the Mariners significantly over-performed on their win-loss record mostly due to their 36-21 record in one run games and 14-1 record in extra innings games. While that doesn't bode well for future, sustained success in Seattle, I think it reflects well on Servais's ability to manage in close games. I also think the 89 wins is pretty impressive for a team where, frankly, I don't think there was too much talent.
Others
Aaron Boone (NYY, 100-62)
Alex Cora (BOS, 108-54)
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Brian Snitker (Atlanta Braves)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (1st in NL East), 18 game improvement over 2017
Brian Snitker took a very young team coming off a 72-90 record and reversed it straight up to a 90-72 record. How young were the Braves? Touki Toussaint, who turned 22 in June, was the sixth youngest player to appear for the Braves this year, with four players being born in 1997. To be able to take a team that young and get this much success out of them is extremely impressive. Next year, I think the Braves will be even better.
Runner-Up: Craig Counsell (Milwaukee Brewers)
Record: 96-67, .589 WPCT (1st in NL Central), 9.5 game improvement over 2017
Craig Counsell was dealt an interesting hand, with baseball's deepest outfield and an infield that seemed somewhat mismatched. However, he handled it seemingly with ease, shuffling around his position players to get the right guys playing time while maintaining production. His team got hot at just the right time, winning their last eight games (including game 163) to win the NL Central. I think you could make a strong case for Counsell as the NL Manager of the Year.
Honorable Mention: Bud Black (Colorado Rockies)
Record: 91-72, .558 WPCT (2nd in NL West), 3.5 game improvement over 2017
Bud Black has done a great job turning Colorado into a pitching-oriented team, helping facilitate the rise of Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Anderson, Scott Oberg, and more. I really don't think the Rockies' roster is *that* good, so to be able to squeeze so many wins out of a team with no offense and very young pitchers stuck pitching half their games in pitchers' hell is very impressive. If Rockies management ever got Black some hitters outside of Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Trevor Story, this could be a very good team going forward.
Others
Dave Roberts (LAD, 92-71)
Joe Maddon (CHC, 95-68)
American League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Blake Treinen (Oakland Athletics)
Stats: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 38 SV, 100/21 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 68 appearances
Blake Treinen completely turned his career around when he was traded from Washington to Oakland in 2017. With a 5.73 ERA and an 18.9% strikeout rate pre-trade and a 2.13 ERA and a 26.9% strikeout rate post trade, he successfully made the long-awaited transition from thrower to pitcher. This year, he was off the charts: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 100/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 80.1 innings. He struck out 31.7% of those that he faced while walking just 6.7%, and he allowed just one earned run after July 21st. In fact, in those final 30.1 innings, he had a 0.30 ERA, a 0.56 WHIP, and a 36/3 strikeout to walk ratio. That's a 32.7% strikeout rate and a 2.7% walk rate if you're keeping track at home. 98 mile per hour diving two seamers will do that.
Runner-Up: Edwin Diaz (Seattle Mariners)
Stats: 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 57 SV, 124/17 K/BB, 73.1 IP in 73 appearances
Edwin Diaz finished with the second most saves (57) ever for a single season, but that's not why he ranked second on this list because personally, I don't care. What's more astounding is Diaz's 124/17 strikeout to walk ratio, which translates to a 44.3% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. Imagine for every time you go through the lineup, four of the nine hitters strike out. That was what facing Diaz was like this season, with the 44.3% rate leading the American League this year (min. 50 IP).
Others
Jose LeClerc (TEX, 1.56 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 85/25 K/BB, 57.2 IP)
Collin McHugh (HOU, 1.99 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 94/21 K/BB, 72.1 IP)
Chad Green (NYY, 2.50 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 94/15 K/BB, 75.2 IP)
National League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Josh Hader (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 12 SV, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP in 55 appearances
I find it just a but counter-intuitive to give this award to a pitcher with a 2.43 ERA, but Josh Hader was so good in every other facet of pitching that it had to go to him. While his ERA was a bit elevated in the realm of elite relievers, his 143/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings was absolutely incredible. His 46.7% strikeout rate (nearly half) not only led all of baseball (min. 50 IP), it was the fourth highest strikeout rate ever, behind only 2014 Aroldis Chapman (52.5%), 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%), and 2017 Kimbrel (49.6%). In addition, by only allowing 36 hits and 30 walks, his WHIP was just 0.81. On April 30th, he had perhaps his best game of the season, striking out eight of the nine batters he faced (including Joey Votto), walking the other batter.
Runner-Up: Jeremy Jeffress (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 1.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 15 SV, 89/27 K/BB, 76.2 IP in 73 appearances
The Brewers' bullpen was pretty good, wasn't it? Jeremy Jeffress bounced back from a down 2017 (4.68 ERA, 51/34 K/BB) to post his best season this year, finishing with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. His 89/27 strikeout to walk ratio led to a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate, but by keeping the hits from falling and especially limiting extra base hits (just 12 allowed all year), Jeffress kept the damage to a minimum even in the worst case scenarios, never allowing more than two runs in any of his 73 appearances. He even had a stretch from April 9th to May 27th in which he tossed 22.2 shutout innings on five hits, six walks, and 21 strikeouts for a 0.49 WHIP.
Others
Adam Ottavino (COL, 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 112/36 K/BB, 77.2 IP)
Kirby Yates (SD, 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 90/17 K/BB, 63 IP)
Sean Doolittle (WSH, 1.60 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 60/6 K/BB, 45 IP)
Monday, February 19, 2018
One 2018 Breakout Star to Watch for Each Team: AL
At this time last year, your typical baseball fans knew little of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Robbie Ray, Andrew Benintendi, and Matt Olson. Now, that's a pretty impressive list of names. Looking forward to 2018, here is one player on each AL team that could break out and be a star by the end of the season. Age for the 2018 season is given in parentheses, NL edition coming soon.
Baltimore Orioles: C Chance Sisco (Age 23)
MLB: 2 HR, .333/.455/.778, 0 SB, 220 wRC+ in 10 games
AAA: 7 HR, .267/.340/.395, 2 SB, 107 wRC+ in 97 games
First off, it is much easier for a guy with a name like Chance Sisco to catch the media's attention than for someone like Brad Hand (you're doing great in San Diego, Brad), but Sisco is much more than his cool name. He obviously will never match the numbers he put up in that brief stint in Baltimore in 2017, but if he knocks incumbent Caleb Joseph off of catcher, he could compete for a Rookie of the Year Award. Good enough to stick behind the plate at the major league level, Sisco has a very good feel for hitting, as he has shown with high on-base percentages throughout his career, buoyed by a 10.4% walk rate. That should help him transition well to major league pitching, and with Camden Yards' short fences, his average power could play up. Catchers who can hit are hard to come by, so Sisco should be a very familiar face in Baltimore by the end of the season.
Others: OF Austin Hays, RHP Gabriel Ynoa, OF D.J. Stewart
Boston Red Sox: 3B Rafael Devers (Age 21)
MLB: 10 HR, .284/.338/.482, 3 SB, 111 wRC+ in 58 games
AA/AAA: 20 HR, .311/.377/.578, 0 SB, 159 wRC+ in 86 games
Devers had 92 too many at bats in 2017 to be considered a rookie for 2018, but that doesn't mean he won't be in the spotlight. After demolishing AA pitching (18 HR, .300/.369/.575) and AAA pitching (2 HR, .400/.447/.600), Devers earned a call up to Boston at just 20 years old, and he kept hitting. In 58 games, he knocked ten home runs and slashed .284/.338/.482, firmly establishing himself as a future star for the Red Sox. If he merely continues those rates over a full season in 2018, he'll end up with more than 20 home runs while putting his name into All Star consideration. If he builds on them, we could see a 30 home run season with on-base percentages north of .350, thrusting him into the "star" category at 21 years old. The next wave of talent is very much here in Boston, and it will be led by Devers, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benintendi.
Others: 1B Sam Travis, LHP Jalen Beeks, C Blake Swihart
New York Yankees: 3B Miguel Andujar (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .571/.625/.857, 1 SB, 298 wRC+ in 5 games
AA/AAA: 16 HR, .315/.352/.498, 5 SB, 132 wRC+ in 125 games
The Yankees have a chance to have back to back AL Rookies of the Year. Miguel Andujar hit well at AA Trenton (7 HR, .312/.342/.494) and better at AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre (9 HR, .317/.364/.502), then had just about the best eight plate appearance MLB debut you can possibly have (two singles, two doubles, walk, stolen base, no strikeouts). An eight PA sample doesn't mean much, but it does show that Andujar at least won't be overmatched at the major league level, and the Yankees realize that. By trading Chase Headley, the Yankees have opened up a lane for Andujar to play and make an impact, which says a lot about what they think about the young man.
Others: RHP Chance Adams, SS Gleyber Torres, RHP Domingo German
Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Brent Honeywell (Age 23)
AA/AAA: 13-9, 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 172/35 K/BB, 136.2 IP in 26 starts
The Rays have a ton of players who could break out next year, particularly in the middle infield and starting pitching departments, but perhaps none have a better chance to make an impact than Brent Honeywell. The 22 year old seems like he has been a top prospect forever, and he seems ready after 24 successful starts at AAA Durham (12-8, 3.64 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 152/31 K/BB). With a good spring training, Honeywell and his famous screwball can crack the Tampa Bay rotation, and from there he could win 15 games in 2018 (not that wins accurately reflect his performance).
Others: OF Jake Bauers, SS Christian Arroyo, SS Willy Adames, RHP Jose De Leon
**Update: Honeywell tore his UCL and will miss the season, so scratch that
Toronto Blue Jays: OF Teoscar Hernandez (Age 25)
MLB: 8 HR, .261/.305/.602, 0 SB, 132 wRC+ in 27 games
AAA: 18 HR, .265/.351/.490, 16 SB, 120 wRC+ in 105 games
The Blue Jays have lots of depth, but the good news for Hernandez is that aside from Kevin Pillar, nobody looks to really have a lock on a starting spot in the outfield. Hernandez got some MLB exposure this past season and he made the most of it, slashing .261/.305/.602 with eight home runs and six doubles in just 27 games. The 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio leaves a bit to be desired, but the 102/47 ratio at AAA is a little better and he can hopefully get it going in 2018. The power he showed was very promising as he finally looks to be getting the most out of his lanky, 6'2" frame, and he could go 20-20 in 2018 if everything breaks right and he snags a starting spot. With a name like Teoscar Hernandez, he'll get noticed sooner rather than later.
Others: OF Anthony Alford, LHP Ryan Borucki, LHP Thomas Pannone
Chicago White Sox: 2B Yoan Moncada (Age 22-23)
MLB: 8 HR, .231/.338/.412, 3 SB, 104 wRC+ in 54 games
AAA: 12 HR, .282/.377/.447, 17 SB, 130 wRC+ in 80 games
With the White Sox' excellent farm sytem, there are plenty of young players who could make names for themselves in 2018, but the top has to be Yoan Moncada. The Cuban got his first extended MLB trial last year, slashing .231/.338/.412 with eight home runs in 54 games. Especially promising was the 12.6% walk rate, showing that he is ready to hit major league pitching and could be primed for a breakout. He also kicked it up a notch late in the season, slashing .299/.365/.517 with five of his eight home runs from September 9th onwards. In the minors, he has hit for contact and power while showing off plus speed, with some experience under his belt now, he can put that to good use in the majors.
Others: RHP Carson Fulmer, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Michael Kopech
Cleveland Indians: OF Bradley Zimmer (Age 25)
MLB: 8 HR, .241/.307/.385, 18 SB, 81 wRC+ in 101 games
AAA: 5 HR, .294/.371/.532, 9 SB, 149 wRC+ in 33 games
Bradley Zimmer played nearly a full season for the Indians in 2017, slashing .241/.307/.385 with eight home runs and 18 stolen bases in 101 games, but there is reason to believe that was only a sneak preview of what is to come in 2018. Zimmer showed pop, swatting 15 doubles and a pair of triples in addition to his eight home runs, as well as smart speed, getting caught stealing just once in nineteen attempts. While he does strike out a lot and will likely continue to do so throughout his MLB career, the rest of the tools point to him being a very productive player for Cleveland for a long time. That power/speed combination is hard to come by, especially from a 6'5" frame, and he has a very good chance of putting it all together in 2018 and becoming yet another young star on this Cleveland team.
Others: C/3B Francisco Mejia, LHP Shawn Morimando, 3B Yandy Diaz
Detroit Tigers: 3B Jeimer Candelario (Age 24)
MLB: 3 HR, .283/.359/.425, 0 SB, 111 wRC+ in 38 games
AAA: 15 HR, .265/.343/.484, 1 SB, 115 wRC+ in 110 games
A third baseman, Jeimer Candelario was blocked in Chicago by Kris Bryant, so trading him to Detroit and shifting incumbent third baseman Nick Castellanos to the outfield made perfect sense. Now, the 24 year old with a career .292/.374/.507 slash line at AAA finally has a shot, and he is looking to make the most of it. He brings power and patience to the batters' box, and with the spot open for him, he could put up a big season.
Others: OF Victor Reyes, IF Dixon Machado, OF JaCoby Jones
Kansas City Royals: SS Raul Mondesi (Age 22-23)
MLB: 1 HR, .170/.214/.245, 5 SB, 17 wRC+ in 25 games
AAA: 13 HR, .305/.340/.539, 21 SB, 119 wRC+ in 85 games
Could 2018 finally be Raul Mondesi's year? The shortstop has been a top prospect seemingly forever, cracking MLB.com's top 50 prospect lists in 2013 (#47), 2014 (#38), and 2015 (#33) before losing eligibility in 2016. Still just 22 years old, Mondesi is fast, a slick fielder, and competent with the bat. He figured out AAA in 2017, slashing .305/.340/.539, but he has yet to apply that to the majors, slashing a paltry .181/.226/.271 in 72 career games between 2016 and 2017. He was rushed through the minors, playing every level at a very young age, and it seems that that may not have been the best way to develop him, but if the AAA numbers are to be believed, he may have finally figured it out. The 14 home runs between AAA and the majors crushed his previous career high of nine, despite the fact that he posted the highest ground ball rate (46.6%) of his minor league career. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is back in Kansas City, but manager Ned Yost has stated that Mondesi has a shot at starting at second base.
Others: OF Jorge Soler, RHP Sam Gaviglio, RHP Trevor Oaks
Minnesota Twins: CF Byron Buxton (Age 24)
MLB: 16 HR, .253/.314/.413, 29 SB, 90 wRC+ in 140 games
AAA: 2 HR, .417/.462/.917, 0 SB, 283 wRC+ in 3 games
Once considered the top prospect in all of baseball, it has taken Byron Buxton's bat a little longer than anticipated to develop, but he showed hints of greatness despite the mediocre slash line. First off, Buxton is arguably the best defender in baseball, and his name absolutely deserves to be mentioned up there with Andrelton Simmons, Billy Hamilton, Nolan Arenado, and Yadier Molina already. That's already evident and fully proven. His base running is great, too, as he stole 29 bases in 30 attempts in 2017, giving him the third most stolen bases ever in a single season among players with zero or one times caught stealing. So he's already elite in two categories, but his bat is uninspiring at best. However, there is reason to believe the bat could come along in 2018, making him – honestly – an MVP candidate if it does, and it may already have. As of July 3rd, he was slashing .195/.272/.280 with just four home runs in 78 games. However, from the Fourth of July onwards, Buxton slashed .314/.359/.553 with 12 home runs in 61 games. Combine that with top notch defense and base running over a full season, and you absolutely have yourself an MVP candidate. If that second-half offensive outburst was for real, then Buxton could be a superstar.
Others: LHP Stephen Gonsalves, IF Nick Gordon, RHP Fernando Romero
Houston Astros: RHP David Paulino (Age 24)
MLB: 2-0, 6.52 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 34/7 K/BB, 29 IP in 6 starts
AAA: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 13/9 K/BB, 14 IP in 3 starts
Coming off a World Series Championship, the Astros are again arguably baseball's best team, so it will be hard for anyone new to break through and make an impact. That said, anything can happen, and former top prospect David Paulino would like to be one to make something happen. The 6'7" righty missed most of 2017 due to a PED suspension as well as bone spur issues, but he's expected to be ready for spring training. If Paulino can get his head in the right place (in addition to the 2017 PED suspension, he was briefly suspended in 2016 for "violating team policy"), there is immense talent here. He dominated the upper minors in 2016 to the tune of a 2.00 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 106/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings, and if it hadn't been for the suspensions, he could have already established himself as a known major league commodity. The Houston rotation looks set with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton, but watch out for David Paulino if any of those guys get hurt.
Others: OF Derek Fisher, RHP Francis Martes, 3B J.D. Davis
Los Angeles Angels: RHP/OF Shohei Ohtani (Age 23-24)
NPB Hitting: 8 HR, .332/.403/.540, 0 SB in 65 games
NPB Pitching: 3-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 25.1 IP in 5 starts
This one is pretty straightforward. We all know who Shohei Ohtani is and it will be nearly impossible for him to live up to the incredibly lofty expectations placed on him, but he's going to try and we are more than excited to watch. Ohtani missed much of 2017 to injury, but back in a healthy 2016 season, he went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 21 starts on the mound while cracking 22 home runs and slashing .322/.416/.588 at the plate in Japan despite turning 22 halfway through the season. The general consensus is he is a better pitching prospect than hitting prospect, and I agree, and he'll likely post an ERA somewhere in the low to mid threes as a starter. At the plate, he does have strikeout issues which could make the transition a bit difficult, but he has 20 homer power and will be fun to watch as he looks to rack up numbers on both sides of the ball.
Others: LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Jaime Barria, RHP Luke Bard
Oakland Athletics: RHP Jharel Cotton (Age 26)
MLB: 9-10, 5.58 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 105/53 K/BB, 129 IP in 24 starts
AAA: 3-0, 2.95 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 28/4 K/BB, 21.1 IP in 4 games (3 starts)
Jharel Cotton and his plus-plus changeup made a great first impression in a five game debut in 2016, going 2-0 with a 2.15 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.1 innings, but the going was a bit rougher in 2017. He was absolutely dominating at times (7 shutout innings on 2 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts against the Royals on April 10th) and got blown up at others (gave up at least five earned runs in eight of his 24 starts), finishing 9-10 with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He still possesses that wicked changeup and he commands everything fairly well, so if he can just get more consistent with his other pitches, Cotton could be the best starter on the A's this year.
Others: SS Franklin Barreto, RHP Daniel Gossett, RHP Paul Blackburn
Seattle Mariners: LHP Marco Gonzales (Age 26)
MLB: 1-1, 6.08 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 32/11 K/BB, 40 IP in 11 games (8 starts)
High A/AAA: 8-4, 3.02 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 73/22 K/BB, 86.1 IP in 14 starts
The 19th overall pick of the 2013 draft out of Gonzaga, Gonzales missed chunks of 2015 with shoulder woes and all of 2016 to Tommy John surgery, then spent much of 2017 in AAA building himself back up. In them minors this year, Gonzales went 8-4 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 14 starts, striking out 73 and walking 22 in 86.1 innings, all but six of which were in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League. He was less effective in eight starts and three relief appearances in the majors, going 1-1 with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in 40 innings. It's clear that Gonzales is immensely talented, but having been unable to keep his arm in commission for long stretches at a time, he hasn't really gotten a chance to get in his rhythm. Fully healthy for 2018, he could surprise as an effective starter for Seattle this year.
Others: 1B Mike Ford, RHP Andrew Moore, 1B Dan Vogelbach
Texas Rangers: OF Willie Calhoun (Age 23)
MLB: 1 HR, .265/.324/.353, 0 SB, 80 wRC+ in 13 games
AAA: 31 HR, .300/.355/.572, 4 SB, 133 wRC+ in 128 games
Last year, it was Joey Gallo posting a Texas-sized breakout season, and this year, Willie Calhoun looks like the most likely candidate to follow in his footsteps. Despite standing just 5'8", Calhoun packs a ton of punch for a little guy, crushing 70 home runs in his three pro seasons, with 11 in 2015, 27 in 2016, and 32 in 2017. He absolutely raked in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League, cracking 31 home runs and slashing .300/.355/.572, walking in only 7.9% of his plate appearances but also striking out in just 11.4%. With nothing left to prove in the minors, there is space for him in the Rangers outfield to prove that he can translate that success to the majors, and he did slash a respectable .265/.324/.353 in a 13 game test. Again, in a small sample size, the 5.4% walk rate was low, but his 18.9% strikeout rate wasn't terrible for a 22 year old getting his very first taste of big league pitching. In a shallow Rangers outfield comprising of Calhoun, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields Jr., Ryan Rua, Drew Robinson, and occasionally Shin-Soo Choo (who will mostly DH in 2018), Calhoun will get every chance to snag a starting spot.
Others: LHP Yohander Mendez, 1B Ronald Guzman, OF Ryan Rua
Others: RHP Chance Adams, SS Gleyber Torres, RHP Domingo German
Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Brent Honeywell (Age 23)
AA/AAA: 13-9, 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 172/35 K/BB, 136.2 IP in 26 starts
The Rays have a ton of players who could break out next year, particularly in the middle infield and starting pitching departments, but perhaps none have a better chance to make an impact than Brent Honeywell. The 22 year old seems like he has been a top prospect forever, and he seems ready after 24 successful starts at AAA Durham (12-8, 3.64 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 152/31 K/BB). With a good spring training, Honeywell and his famous screwball can crack the Tampa Bay rotation, and from there he could win 15 games in 2018 (not that wins accurately reflect his performance).
Others: OF Jake Bauers, SS Christian Arroyo, SS Willy Adames, RHP Jose De Leon
**Update: Honeywell tore his UCL and will miss the season, so scratch that
Toronto Blue Jays: OF Teoscar Hernandez (Age 25)
MLB: 8 HR, .261/.305/.602, 0 SB, 132 wRC+ in 27 games
AAA: 18 HR, .265/.351/.490, 16 SB, 120 wRC+ in 105 games
The Blue Jays have lots of depth, but the good news for Hernandez is that aside from Kevin Pillar, nobody looks to really have a lock on a starting spot in the outfield. Hernandez got some MLB exposure this past season and he made the most of it, slashing .261/.305/.602 with eight home runs and six doubles in just 27 games. The 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio leaves a bit to be desired, but the 102/47 ratio at AAA is a little better and he can hopefully get it going in 2018. The power he showed was very promising as he finally looks to be getting the most out of his lanky, 6'2" frame, and he could go 20-20 in 2018 if everything breaks right and he snags a starting spot. With a name like Teoscar Hernandez, he'll get noticed sooner rather than later.
Others: OF Anthony Alford, LHP Ryan Borucki, LHP Thomas Pannone
Chicago White Sox: 2B Yoan Moncada (Age 22-23)
MLB: 8 HR, .231/.338/.412, 3 SB, 104 wRC+ in 54 games
AAA: 12 HR, .282/.377/.447, 17 SB, 130 wRC+ in 80 games
With the White Sox' excellent farm sytem, there are plenty of young players who could make names for themselves in 2018, but the top has to be Yoan Moncada. The Cuban got his first extended MLB trial last year, slashing .231/.338/.412 with eight home runs in 54 games. Especially promising was the 12.6% walk rate, showing that he is ready to hit major league pitching and could be primed for a breakout. He also kicked it up a notch late in the season, slashing .299/.365/.517 with five of his eight home runs from September 9th onwards. In the minors, he has hit for contact and power while showing off plus speed, with some experience under his belt now, he can put that to good use in the majors.
Others: RHP Carson Fulmer, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Michael Kopech
Cleveland Indians: OF Bradley Zimmer (Age 25)
MLB: 8 HR, .241/.307/.385, 18 SB, 81 wRC+ in 101 games
AAA: 5 HR, .294/.371/.532, 9 SB, 149 wRC+ in 33 games
Bradley Zimmer played nearly a full season for the Indians in 2017, slashing .241/.307/.385 with eight home runs and 18 stolen bases in 101 games, but there is reason to believe that was only a sneak preview of what is to come in 2018. Zimmer showed pop, swatting 15 doubles and a pair of triples in addition to his eight home runs, as well as smart speed, getting caught stealing just once in nineteen attempts. While he does strike out a lot and will likely continue to do so throughout his MLB career, the rest of the tools point to him being a very productive player for Cleveland for a long time. That power/speed combination is hard to come by, especially from a 6'5" frame, and he has a very good chance of putting it all together in 2018 and becoming yet another young star on this Cleveland team.
Others: C/3B Francisco Mejia, LHP Shawn Morimando, 3B Yandy Diaz
Detroit Tigers: 3B Jeimer Candelario (Age 24)
MLB: 3 HR, .283/.359/.425, 0 SB, 111 wRC+ in 38 games
AAA: 15 HR, .265/.343/.484, 1 SB, 115 wRC+ in 110 games
A third baseman, Jeimer Candelario was blocked in Chicago by Kris Bryant, so trading him to Detroit and shifting incumbent third baseman Nick Castellanos to the outfield made perfect sense. Now, the 24 year old with a career .292/.374/.507 slash line at AAA finally has a shot, and he is looking to make the most of it. He brings power and patience to the batters' box, and with the spot open for him, he could put up a big season.
Others: OF Victor Reyes, IF Dixon Machado, OF JaCoby Jones
Kansas City Royals: SS Raul Mondesi (Age 22-23)
MLB: 1 HR, .170/.214/.245, 5 SB, 17 wRC+ in 25 games
AAA: 13 HR, .305/.340/.539, 21 SB, 119 wRC+ in 85 games
Could 2018 finally be Raul Mondesi's year? The shortstop has been a top prospect seemingly forever, cracking MLB.com's top 50 prospect lists in 2013 (#47), 2014 (#38), and 2015 (#33) before losing eligibility in 2016. Still just 22 years old, Mondesi is fast, a slick fielder, and competent with the bat. He figured out AAA in 2017, slashing .305/.340/.539, but he has yet to apply that to the majors, slashing a paltry .181/.226/.271 in 72 career games between 2016 and 2017. He was rushed through the minors, playing every level at a very young age, and it seems that that may not have been the best way to develop him, but if the AAA numbers are to be believed, he may have finally figured it out. The 14 home runs between AAA and the majors crushed his previous career high of nine, despite the fact that he posted the highest ground ball rate (46.6%) of his minor league career. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is back in Kansas City, but manager Ned Yost has stated that Mondesi has a shot at starting at second base.
Others: OF Jorge Soler, RHP Sam Gaviglio, RHP Trevor Oaks
Minnesota Twins: CF Byron Buxton (Age 24)
MLB: 16 HR, .253/.314/.413, 29 SB, 90 wRC+ in 140 games
AAA: 2 HR, .417/.462/.917, 0 SB, 283 wRC+ in 3 games
Once considered the top prospect in all of baseball, it has taken Byron Buxton's bat a little longer than anticipated to develop, but he showed hints of greatness despite the mediocre slash line. First off, Buxton is arguably the best defender in baseball, and his name absolutely deserves to be mentioned up there with Andrelton Simmons, Billy Hamilton, Nolan Arenado, and Yadier Molina already. That's already evident and fully proven. His base running is great, too, as he stole 29 bases in 30 attempts in 2017, giving him the third most stolen bases ever in a single season among players with zero or one times caught stealing. So he's already elite in two categories, but his bat is uninspiring at best. However, there is reason to believe the bat could come along in 2018, making him – honestly – an MVP candidate if it does, and it may already have. As of July 3rd, he was slashing .195/.272/.280 with just four home runs in 78 games. However, from the Fourth of July onwards, Buxton slashed .314/.359/.553 with 12 home runs in 61 games. Combine that with top notch defense and base running over a full season, and you absolutely have yourself an MVP candidate. If that second-half offensive outburst was for real, then Buxton could be a superstar.
Others: LHP Stephen Gonsalves, IF Nick Gordon, RHP Fernando Romero
Houston Astros: RHP David Paulino (Age 24)
MLB: 2-0, 6.52 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 34/7 K/BB, 29 IP in 6 starts
AAA: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 13/9 K/BB, 14 IP in 3 starts
Coming off a World Series Championship, the Astros are again arguably baseball's best team, so it will be hard for anyone new to break through and make an impact. That said, anything can happen, and former top prospect David Paulino would like to be one to make something happen. The 6'7" righty missed most of 2017 due to a PED suspension as well as bone spur issues, but he's expected to be ready for spring training. If Paulino can get his head in the right place (in addition to the 2017 PED suspension, he was briefly suspended in 2016 for "violating team policy"), there is immense talent here. He dominated the upper minors in 2016 to the tune of a 2.00 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 106/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings, and if it hadn't been for the suspensions, he could have already established himself as a known major league commodity. The Houston rotation looks set with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton, but watch out for David Paulino if any of those guys get hurt.
Others: OF Derek Fisher, RHP Francis Martes, 3B J.D. Davis
Los Angeles Angels: RHP/OF Shohei Ohtani (Age 23-24)
NPB Hitting: 8 HR, .332/.403/.540, 0 SB in 65 games
NPB Pitching: 3-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 25.1 IP in 5 starts
This one is pretty straightforward. We all know who Shohei Ohtani is and it will be nearly impossible for him to live up to the incredibly lofty expectations placed on him, but he's going to try and we are more than excited to watch. Ohtani missed much of 2017 to injury, but back in a healthy 2016 season, he went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 21 starts on the mound while cracking 22 home runs and slashing .322/.416/.588 at the plate in Japan despite turning 22 halfway through the season. The general consensus is he is a better pitching prospect than hitting prospect, and I agree, and he'll likely post an ERA somewhere in the low to mid threes as a starter. At the plate, he does have strikeout issues which could make the transition a bit difficult, but he has 20 homer power and will be fun to watch as he looks to rack up numbers on both sides of the ball.
Others: LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Jaime Barria, RHP Luke Bard
Oakland Athletics: RHP Jharel Cotton (Age 26)
MLB: 9-10, 5.58 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 105/53 K/BB, 129 IP in 24 starts
AAA: 3-0, 2.95 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 28/4 K/BB, 21.1 IP in 4 games (3 starts)
Jharel Cotton and his plus-plus changeup made a great first impression in a five game debut in 2016, going 2-0 with a 2.15 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.1 innings, but the going was a bit rougher in 2017. He was absolutely dominating at times (7 shutout innings on 2 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts against the Royals on April 10th) and got blown up at others (gave up at least five earned runs in eight of his 24 starts), finishing 9-10 with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He still possesses that wicked changeup and he commands everything fairly well, so if he can just get more consistent with his other pitches, Cotton could be the best starter on the A's this year.
Others: SS Franklin Barreto, RHP Daniel Gossett, RHP Paul Blackburn
Seattle Mariners: LHP Marco Gonzales (Age 26)
MLB: 1-1, 6.08 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 32/11 K/BB, 40 IP in 11 games (8 starts)
High A/AAA: 8-4, 3.02 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 73/22 K/BB, 86.1 IP in 14 starts
The 19th overall pick of the 2013 draft out of Gonzaga, Gonzales missed chunks of 2015 with shoulder woes and all of 2016 to Tommy John surgery, then spent much of 2017 in AAA building himself back up. In them minors this year, Gonzales went 8-4 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 14 starts, striking out 73 and walking 22 in 86.1 innings, all but six of which were in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League. He was less effective in eight starts and three relief appearances in the majors, going 1-1 with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in 40 innings. It's clear that Gonzales is immensely talented, but having been unable to keep his arm in commission for long stretches at a time, he hasn't really gotten a chance to get in his rhythm. Fully healthy for 2018, he could surprise as an effective starter for Seattle this year.
Others: 1B Mike Ford, RHP Andrew Moore, 1B Dan Vogelbach
Texas Rangers: OF Willie Calhoun (Age 23)
MLB: 1 HR, .265/.324/.353, 0 SB, 80 wRC+ in 13 games
AAA: 31 HR, .300/.355/.572, 4 SB, 133 wRC+ in 128 games
Last year, it was Joey Gallo posting a Texas-sized breakout season, and this year, Willie Calhoun looks like the most likely candidate to follow in his footsteps. Despite standing just 5'8", Calhoun packs a ton of punch for a little guy, crushing 70 home runs in his three pro seasons, with 11 in 2015, 27 in 2016, and 32 in 2017. He absolutely raked in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League, cracking 31 home runs and slashing .300/.355/.572, walking in only 7.9% of his plate appearances but also striking out in just 11.4%. With nothing left to prove in the minors, there is space for him in the Rangers outfield to prove that he can translate that success to the majors, and he did slash a respectable .265/.324/.353 in a 13 game test. Again, in a small sample size, the 5.4% walk rate was low, but his 18.9% strikeout rate wasn't terrible for a 22 year old getting his very first taste of big league pitching. In a shallow Rangers outfield comprising of Calhoun, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields Jr., Ryan Rua, Drew Robinson, and occasionally Shin-Soo Choo (who will mostly DH in 2018), Calhoun will get every chance to snag a starting spot.
Others: LHP Yohander Mendez, 1B Ronald Guzman, OF Ryan Rua
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