Before the season, I wrote about "one breakout star to watch" for each team, with one article for the AL and one for the NL. I'll go team by team and review each pick. Unfortunately, while I had some hits, many of my breakout picks flopped and three had Tommy John surgery before the season even started, so overall I am a little disappointed in the way this list turned out. If I still have time, I'll try again for the 2019 season.
Baltimore Orioles: Chance Sisco (2 HR, .181/.288/.269, 1 SB, 59 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
As with all things Orioles related in 2018, this didn't quite work out. Sisco's bat proved to be overmatched by major league pitching, and he struck out in 35.9% of his plate appearances while slashing .181/.288/.269 over 63 games. He turns 24 in February so he is still plenty young and will try again next year, but so far, not so good for Sisco.
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers (21 HR, .240/.298/.433, 5 SB, 90 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR)
While Devers didn't exactly flop in 2018, his .240/.298/.433 line was still somewhat disappointing after he slashed .284/.338/.482 in a smaller sample size last season. While the power was pretty good, he struggled to get on base and a .298 OBP won't exactly cut it unless you're hitting 30+ home runs. He did slash .294/.351/.382 in the postseason and picked up some timely hits, and having just turned 22 during the World Series, he has plenty of time to move past his moderately disappointing 2018.
New York Yankees: Miguel Andujar (27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR)
Here's one that I definitely got right. There was an opening for Andujar at third base and he took it, clubbing 76 extra base hits in 149 games and holding down a critical lineup spot for one of baseball's better teams. While his 4.1% walk rate cut into his production and left him with a pedestrian .328 OBP, it's hard to ask for more out of a 23 year old rookie than what Andujar gave in 2018.
Tampa Bay Rays: Brent Honeywell (did not play - injured)
Shortly after I picked Honeywell as the Rays' breakout star to watch, he tore his UCL and had to miss the season. My runner up was Jake Bauers, who slashed .201/.316/.384 with eleven home runs in 96 games and was more in the Rafael Devers boat of "not necessarily disappointing, but not great either."
Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez (22 HR, .239/.302/.468, 5 SB, 107 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
While Hernandez didn't exactly light the world on fire, he did break out for 22 home runs in his first full season. Overall, 58 extra base hits in 134 games is pretty good, and a 107 wRC+ meant he was an above average hitter despite a low .302 OBP. I'll consider Hernandez a success here, though with his poor defense he was barely above replacement level.
Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada (17 HR, .235/.315/.400, 12 SB, 97 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR)
Put Moncada in the same category as Rafael Devers. He was very inconsistent in 2018, slashing as high as .274/.361/.516 in April and as low as .197/.242/.350 in June. Overall, though, his numbers turned out quite decently: 17 home runs, a .235/.315/.400 line, and 2.0 fWAR. He hit the ball hard, but his 33.4% strikeout rate kept him from sustaining hot stretches and kept his overall production more pedestrian. Let's see what happens in 2019.
Cleveland Indians: Bradley Zimmer (2 HR, .226/.281/.330, 4 SB, 63 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
Zimmer was limited to just 34 games in 2018 due to injuries, so his big breakout did not come. However, he's just about to turn 25 and Michael Brantley, Rajai Davis, and Brandon Guyer are all free agents, so Zimmer does have a good chance to make 2019 the year.
Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario (19 HR, .224/.317/.393, 3 SB, 95 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR)
Candelario hit 19 home runs, walked at a healthy 10.7% clip, and played good defense in 2018 as a 24 year old near-rookie, but a .224 batting average limited his overall slash line. While expectations may have been a little higher, his 2.5 fWAR shows he was more than solid, and the Tigers should feel comfortable moving forward with him as their starting third baseman.
Kansas City Royals: Adalberto Mondesi (14 HR, .276/.306/.498, 32 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR)
Before the season, I asked "could 2018 finally be Mondesi's year?" and as it turns out, the answer was yes. Mondesi was on the MLB.com top fifty prospect list way back in 2013, and now the 23 year old is finally producing after disappointing 2016 and 2017 seasons in the majors. This year, he slashed .276/.306/.498 with 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases in just 75 games, putting up 2.8 fWAR in less than half a season. Honestly, even I didn't realize Mondesi has that good of a year. His future was in doubt for a while, but now it looks like he can take over at shortstop for the departing Alcides Escobar.
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton (0 HR, .156/.183/.200, 5 SB, -3 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR)
Well...whoops. I was hoping Buxton would finally take the step forward into stardom or at least semi-stardom after slashing .300/.347/.546 in the second half of 2017, but he was hurt on and off in 2018, spent time in the minors, and ultimately never got anything going. It's hard to believe after four up and down years in the majors, he's still just 24 years old and has plenty of time to make things click, but he'll likely never become the superstar the Twins envisioned when they drafted him second overall in 2012 or when he was widely considered the game's top prospect after slashing .334/.424/.520 with 12 home runs and 55 stolen bases at Class A and High A in 2013.
Houston Astros: David Paulino (1-0, 1.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6/2 K/BB, 6.2 IP)
Paulino's prospect status is still intact after pitching parts of three seasons in the majors, and he's still just 24, but ultimately 2018 was not his year after he ended up sitting out much of it with injuries. Traded to the Blue Jays for Roberto Osuna, he'll give it another try in 2019.
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani (22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 3.31 ERA, 63/22 K/BB, 3.8 fWAR)
Aside from the Tommy John surgery, 2018 could not have gone much better for Ohtani. He became baseball's first legitimate two-way star since Babe Ruth, both hitting and pitching at All Star levels. It's so, so awful that he won't get to pitch in 2019 due to the surgery, but Ohtani was everything even his wildest optimists hoped for in 2018, at least on a per-game basis.
Oakland Athletics: Jharel Cotton (did not play - injured)
Like Honeywell, Jharel Cotton did not appear in 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, and it looks like Matt Chapman would have been a better pick for this spot. My #2 pick behind Cotton, Franklin Barreto, played just 32 games and slashed .233/.253/.493, with his power looking great but his horrid plate discipline holding him back.
Seattle Mariners: Marco Gonzales (13-9, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 145/32 K/BB, 166.2 IP)
Hey look, a success that wasn't necessarily an obvious pre-season choice like Ohtani. After battling injuries for years, Gonzales was finally healthy in 2018, and he responded in a great way by going 13-9 with a 4.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a very solid 145/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 166.2 innings. He was pretty inconsistent start to start, but when he was on, he looked like the future ace the Cardinals thought they drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Gonzaga back in 2013.
Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun (2 HR, .222/.269/.333, 0 SB, 55 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR)
Ah, another bust (at least for now). For the second straight season, Calhoun struggled to catch on in the majors, and we'll have to wait another year to see whether his power is the real deal. Among rookies expected to make an impact in 2018, Calhoun was among the biggest disappointments.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna (26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR)
I don't think the prediction that Acuna would break out was a particularly novel one, and Acuna certainly lived up to the hype by slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs as a 20 year old. Before the season, there was plenty of praise heaped on him as a future superstar, and so far he has only made those claims stronger. Acuna will be one of the game's better outfielders, if not one of the best, for a long time.
Miami Marlins: Lewis Brinson (11 HR, .199/.240/.338, 2 SB, 56 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR)
On the flip side, Lewis Brinson sucked, to put it frankly. Though he had occasional outbursts of power, he struggled to make contact and only got as much playing time as he did because the Marlins just plain needed him there. I'd rank him ahead of Calhoun as the biggest disappointment of the season just because of his higher pre-season expectations, but the 24 year old can try again next year.
New York Mets: Amed Rosario (9 HR, .256/.295/.381, 24 SB, 85 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR)
While Rosario's numbers don't pop out, good defense at shortstop and better performance later in the season helped him put up an admirable year for a 22 year old. I expect Rosario to continue to develop in 2019 and may then have the breakout we're all waiting for.
Philadelphia Phillies: J.P. Crawford (3 HR, .214/.319/.393, 2 SB, 96 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
While Crawford finally began to get some regular playing time after years of being a top prospect, his .214/.319/.393 line over 49 games is still well short of expectations. There's talk that the Phillies might bring in Manny Machado, but if they decide to stick with Crawford, he'll have another opportunity to prove himself next year. He turns 24 in January so he's still young, but he has been stagnant for long enough that some doubt is beginning to creep in.
Washington Nationals: Victor Robles (3 HR, .288/.348/.525, 3 SB, 131 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR)
Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did this year, but an arm injury in April knocked him out for three months and by the time he returned, Soto was basically already Babe Ruth. Still, once he was called up for 21 games in September, he looked very good, slashing .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and playing his trademark great defense. It's not Robles' fault he was hurt for much of the season, and I see no reason to think he can't challenge for the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year Award.
Chicago Cubs: Eddie Butler (2-3, 5.62 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 49.2 IP)
I picked Butler as the Cubs' best breakout candidate, though I did note at the time that the roster was pretty much set and nobody was really likely to have a breakthrough season. Butler couldn't make it work in Chicago and was ultimately sent to Texas in the Cole Hamels deal, where he has been a mediocre reliever.
Cincinnati Reds: Luis Castillo (10-12, 4.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 165/49 K/BB, 169.2 IP)
So no, Castillo didn't break out, with his 3.12 ERA and 1.07 WHIP from 2017 being better than this year's marks of 4.30 and 1.22, respectively, though he did only throw 89.1 innings in 2017. However, Castillo looked much better in the second half, going 5-4 with a 2.44 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 11 starts, striking out 69 and walking 14 in 66.1 innings. He's perfectly capable of maintaining that over a full season, and I would not be surprised if next year was the big breakout.
Milwaukee Brewers: Josh Hader (6-1, 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP)
I was a little bit disappointed when the Brewers did not end up using Hader as a starter, but he was so good in relief this year (143 strikeouts...really??) that it's hard to regard 2018 as anything but an absolute success. Hader went from intriguing upside prospect to bullpen monster in one year, and he's likely not going anywhere.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 136/53 K/BB, 111.2 IP)
So Glasnow didn't exactly break out in 2018, but he did have consistent major league success for the first time in his career, so this is should be regarded as a partial success. I think the Rays will be a good place for him and that he could continue to build on his success next year.
St. Louis Cardinals: Miles Mikolas (18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 146/29 K/BB, 200.2 IP)
I don't think 2018 could have possibly gone better for Mikolas. He was very mediocre in his first three seasons in the majors from 2012-2014, but after three years in Japan from 2015-2017, he came back looking like an ace. He didn't overpower hitters, but he hit his spots and induced weak contact to make the NL All Star Team.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Taylor Clarke (did not play - spent year in AAA)
So Clarke did go 13-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 2018 - at AAA Reno. He never got his shot in the Arizona rotation in 2018, so he'll try again in 2019, when he'll be 26.
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon (5 HR, .232/.307/.376, 1 SB, 68 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
So he got his first significant MLB playing time, but ultimately he could not hang onto the first base job and slashed just .232/.307/.376 in 91 games. At this point, I'm not as confident in McMahon's ability to hold onto a first base job, with Ian Desmond currently getting time there and Grant Lavigne looking to make a quick run through the minors.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP)
Buehler had a fantastic rookie season in 2018, putting up a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 24 games (23 starts) before dominating in the postseason. That marks three straight seasons in which a rookie put together not just a good but a great season, following Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger. Buehler looks like an ace in the making and will likely remain in the LA rotation for a long time.
San Diego Padres: Dinelson Lamet (did not play - injured)
Okay so in all, I lost three of my breakout picks to Tommy John surgery. That's unfortunate, because I was really looking forward to what Lamet could do in 2018 after striking out 28.7% of his opponents as a rookie in 2017. My second pick, Luis Perdomo, wasn't much better: 1-6, 7.05 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 39/22 K/BB.
San Francisco Giants: Chris Stratton (10-10, 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 112/54 K/BB, 145 IP)
The numbers weren't great, but on the positive side, Stratton pitched a full season for the first time in his career and even threw a complete game, two hit shutout on September 14th against the Rockies. He'll never reach the potential the Giants thought he had when they took him in the first round (20th overall) out of Mississippi State in 2012, but he looks like he could be a moderately useful back-end starter.
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