As a Nationals fan, I went a little deeper with this one, though the Nationals' system is lacking in terms of impact talent. Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia are just about the only two impact prospects on the offensive side, while Jackson Rutledge and Tim Cate are the only blue chippers on the pitching side. When it comes to hitting, the Nationals are extremely shallow behind Kieboom and Garcia, as they've got virtually nothing in the outfield and Drew Mendoza still has a lot to prove. They're a little deeper on the mound, as Wil Crowe, Seth Romero, Mason Denaburg, Matt Cronin, and Andry Lara all offer something in their own right, but Crowe lacks much of a ceiling and the other four have a lot to prove. However, if Kieboom pans out like he should, I think Nationals fans will be happy.
Affiliates: AAA Fresno Grizzlies, AA Harrisburg Senators, High A Potomac Nationals*, Class A Hagerstown Suns, short season Auburn Doubledays, complex level GCL and DSL Nationals
*High A affiliate will move from Woodbridge, VA to Fredericksburg, VA in 2020
Catcher
- Raudy Read (2020 Age: 26): With the Nationals going with a Kurt Suzuki/Yan Gomes combination behind the plate for a second straight season, Read's best path to playing time will be if someone gets hurt. That said, he had a nice season in the minors this year, slashing .275/.317/.546 with 20 home runs and a 58/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 games at AAA Fresno, and he's also slashed .182/.182/.182 in 14 major league games. Read has some power and has shown some moderate ability to get to it, though he doesn't draw many walks and figures to be a low on-base percentage guy at the major league level. Though he's a good defender behind the plate, I doubt he ever takes over as a starter, but he should fit in nicely as a back-up at some point, either in DC or elsewhere.
- Tres Barrera (2020 Age: 25): A sixth round pick out of Texas in 2016, Barrera has moved slowly through the minors and in 2019, he slashed .249/.323/.381 with eight home runs and a 69/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at AA Harrisburg, also picking up two hitless major league at bats. He's a great defender who earned his way up to the majors with his glove, though his bat is a bit light to ever start at the major league level. Barrera and Read will probably compete for the third string role as long as Suzuki and Gomes are around, with Read showing a slightly better bat and Barrera showing a slightly better glove. I'd probably rather use Barrera due to the better glove.
- Israel Pineda (2020 Age: 20): Pineda hasn't quite gotten it going with the bat yet, but he's easily the best young catcher in the system. In 2019, he slashed .217/.278/.305 with seven home runs and a 102/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Class A Hagerstown, though he only turned 19 at the start of the season. He'll probably end up as more of a back-up catcher, but he's a very competent player at a young age and that's what you like to see in a catcher. Hopefully it clicks for him in High A in 2020 and he moves towards his ceiling of a 10-15 homer, medium on-base catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Taylor Gushue, Jakson Reetz
Corner Infield
- Jake Noll (2020 Age: 26): Nationals fans may remember Noll as the relatively unknown prospect who looks like Ryan Zimmerman and cracked the Opening Day roster before going back down to the minors and not being heard from again aside from a brief call-up in May. Noll slashed .167/.231/.250 over those eight major league games, but spent the majority of 2019 at AAA Fresno, where he slashed .285/.327/.410 with eleven home runs and an 89/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games in a hitter-friendly environment. He's played all over the diamond in his pro career with significant time at first, second, and third base, and he'll compete with Wilmer Difo for a utility infielder role in 2020. A seventh round pick out of Florida Gulf Coast in 2016, Noll is a very competent hitter who has shown moderate power while being a very tough out at the plate, and he should be very useful on both sides of the ball at the major league level, though I doubt he ever starts full time.
- Drew Mendoza (2020 Age: 22): Mendoza was borderline first rounder as a high schooler in the Orlando area, but he elected to attend Florida State instead and emerged as a third round pick in 2019. In his pro debut, he slashed .264/.377/.383 with four home runs and a 57/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games in an aggressive assignment at Class A Hagerstown, and he remains just a bit enigmatic as a prospect. A big guy at 6'5" and 230 pounds, he can really drive the ball with authority, though that power comes more from sheer strength than from bat speed or a particularly explosive swing, so it's not completely known how his power will translate over with wood bats. He only hit four home runs in 55 games in his pro debut, but most collegiate picks don't go straight to Class A in their draft year, so 2020 will be more illuminating. There is swing and miss in his game, which he pairs with a patient approach that helps him draw plenty of walks, and that may also impact his power production if he doesn't make enough contact. He'll have to hit as a first baseman, though the upside here is pretty good as a guy who can crack 25-30 home runs a year with walk-driven on-base percentages in the .350 range.
- Gilbert Lara (2020 Age: 22): Lara was an extremely highly regarded amateur out of the Dominican Republic, and he signed for $3.1 million back in 2014. Traded to the Natioanls with KJ Harrison for Gio Gonzalez in 2018, he started to pick it up with the bat just a little in 2019. This year, he slashed .242/.280/.375 with 13 home runs and a 123/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Class A Hagerstown and High A Potomac, though the strike zone got away from him a bit at the higher level. He's got some power in his 6'4" frame and can get to it with an explosive swing, but the swing can get long and he hasn't shown the ability to tap into it consistently at any point. Defensively, he's strong at third base, which buys his bat time to develop, and he projects as somewhat of a utility infielder/back-up third baseman with some pop down the line. Hopefully he can shorten his swing a bit and be more than that though.
- Keep an eye on: KJ Harrison, Aldrem Corredor, Leandro Emiliani
Middle Infield
- Carter Kieboom (2020 Age: 22): This is the name Nationals fans keep hearing. While he's not the same caliber of a prospect that Juan Soto and Victor Robles were, the hope here is that Kieboom can give the Nationals a third NL ROY-caliber position player in as many years. A first round pick out of high school in the Atlanta area in 2016, Kieboom slashed .303/.409/.493 with 16 home runs and a 100/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at hitter-friendly AAA Fresno in 2019, also slashing .128/.209/.282 with a pair of home runs in an eleven game cup of coffee at the major league level. He's a very talented hitter with great feel for the barrel that enables his slightly above average raw power to play up in games, somewhat like Anthony Rendon in that regard. He's also patient and draws his share of walks, and it's easy to envision him hitting 20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. He's also a decent defender at shortstop who should be above average at second or third base, adding to his value, though he's expected to play more second base early on with Trea Turner holding down shortstop and one of Rendon or Josh Donaldson likely to man third base in 2020. The biggest blemish on Kieboom's strong profile was his brief MLB debut, where he clearly did not look ready (can you blame him, he was 21) and the game just seemed to speed up on him. A little more seasoning should help, and I expect him to be a real contributor in 2020, with his ultimate projection being something similar to early-career Rendon.
- Luis Garcia (2020 Age: 19-20): This is an interesting prospect. Garcia was signed for $1.3 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2016, hit well in an aggressive assignment to the complex-level Gulf Coast League in 2017, reached High A shortly after his 18th birthday in 2018 as the youngest player in the league, then reached AA before he even turned 19 in 2019. That was his first real speed bump, as he slashed just .257/.280/.337 with four home runs, eleven stolen bases, and an 86/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games, but he did play well in the Eastern League playoffs with six hits in fifteen at bats (.400 AVG) and five walks to just one strikeout. He's an extremely advanced hitter for his age, as he makes very consistent contact and isn't fooled by advanced pitching. He was just a bit overmatched at Harrisburg this year, and he lacked much impact at the plate, so he won't be major league ready at the outset of 2020, but he has the chance to post good on-base percentages and hit ten or so home runs per season at the major league level. Defensively, he's strong at shortstop but might fit better at second base in the long run.
- Cole Freeman (2020 Age: 25): A fourth round pick as a senior out of LSU in 2017, Freeman slashed an unremarkable .266/.354/.371 line in Class A in 2018 but broke out in 2019, slashing .311/.394/.404 with three home runs, 31 stolen bases, and a 60/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Potomac. He has some of the best plate discipline in the system, rarely swinging and missing and also drawing a healthy amount of walks. While he's nowhere near a power hitter, he doesn't completely lack impact at the plate and can drive the ball to the gaps and use his speed to pick up doubles and triples. He's a bit of an older prospect due to being drafted as a college senior, as he turned 25 in September and has yet to reach AA, but he has a ceiling as an effective super-utility type who can play second base, center field, and left field with his speed but mediocre arm.
- Yasel Antuna (2020 Age: 20): The Nationals had three big middle infield signings in the 2016-2017 international signing period, and while Luis Garcia has blossomed into one of the best prospects in the system, Jose Sanchez and Yasel Antuna have yet to get things going. Antuna, who signed for the largest bonus of the group at $3.9 million, slashed just .220/.293/.331 as an 18 year old at Class A in 2018 but missed all but three games in 2019 with Tommy John surgery. He's extremely talented, showing some power from both sides of the plate with an explosive bat, and he controls the zone well for someone his age. Defensively, he's a shortstop for now and has the tools to stick there, but it he's still a work in progress there and the Tommy John surgery doesn't help. Because he'll spend the entire 2020 season at 20 years old, he's young enough to absorb this lost season and stay on schedule with his development, but for now he's all projection and no track record.
- Viandel Pena (2020 Age: 19): There's not much publicly available information on Pena, but he's certainly interesting. Listed at just 5'8" and 148 pounds, he might be the smallest guy in the system, but that didn't stop him from slashing .359/.455/.481 with six stolen bases and a 31/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League as an 18 year old. Pena is a patient hitter with great knowledge of the strike zone for his age, and while he swings and misses just a bit more than you'd hope for a slap hitter, he has the ceiling of a leadoff-type second baseman if he fills out and develops some impact at the plate. Of course, he'll likely never hit for much power at all, so he's more likely to end up a utility infielder.
- Keep an eye on: Jackson Cluff, J.T. Arruda, Jose Sanchez, Viandel Pena
Outfield
- Nick Banks (2020 Age: 25): Banks was considered a potential first round pick at Texas A&M, but a nagging back injury hurt his numbers as a junior and he fell to the fourth round in 2016. He's come along slowly for a college player but his numbers have steadily improved, and in 2019 he slashed .278/.338/.431 with ten home runs and a 95/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg. Banks is a relatively average player all around, but he's gotten better with every promotion and he uses a short, simple swing to drive the ball with authority regularly. In most systems he'd probably fade into the crowd, but the Nationals are so shallow in minor league outfielders that he has a shot to be a useful fourth outfielder in the near future.
- Gage Canning (2020 Age: 23): Canning was a fifth round pick out of Arizona State in 2018, and he finished his first full season with a .239/.308/.341 slash line, four home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 127/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games. Aside from his speed, he doesn't really stand out for anything on the field, but he plays hard and he gets the most of what he has. He has good feel for the barrel and likes to drive doubles and triples into the gap, and though he's only listed at 5'10" and 175 pounds, he might be able to develop some moderate over the fence power. He's an aggressive hitter who doesn't draw a lot of walks, so his ultimate projection is that as a speedy fourth outfielder.
- Jeremy De La Rosa (2020 Age: 18): The Nationals signed De La Rosa for $300,000 in 2018 and skipped him straight to the complex level Gulf Coast League to begin his pro career in 2019, where he slashed .232/.343/.366 with two home runs and a 29/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games. For now, he mostly stands out for his feel for the game at such a young age, and he'll spend all of 2020 at just 18 years old with the chance to hit his way up to full season ball. He might not have the high, high ceiling of some of his fellow international signees, but he sticks out in a system very short in outfield depth. It's hard to project these kids at 17 and 18 years old, but he figures to post high on-base percentages with 15 or so home runs per season at the major league level, at least for now.
- Keep an eye on: Yadiel Hernandez, Telmito Augustin, Rhett Wiseman, Jacob Rhinesmith, Justin Connell, Jeremy Ydens
Starting Pitching
- Wil Crowe (2020 Age: 25): Recent top Nationals pitching prospects to reach the majors like Joe Ross, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth have had varying levels of success, though none have really caught on in a significant way. Wil Crowe hopes to be the next in line to try to stick in the rotation, on the heels of a 4.70 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 130/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 149.1 innings at AA Harrisburg and AAA Fresno. His numbers were much better at the lower level (3.87 ERA, 89/22 K/BB) than with the juiced balls at the higher level (6.17 ERA, 41/26 K/BB), hinting that he may not be 100% ready, but he's risen rapidly through the minors since being drafted in the second round out of South Carolina in 2017. At a listed 6'2" and 240 pounds, he's a big, durable pitcher armed with a low 90's fastball, a slider, a curve, and a changeup, none of which are true out pitches, but they're all effective and he commands and mixes them fairly well. He definitely passes the eye test of a #4 or so big league starter, one who can eat inning and give consistent, quality starts.
- Tim Cate (2020 Age: 22): Crowe may have to establish himself quickly, because a year after taking Crowe out of South Carolina in the second round, the Nationals spent their second round pick on Tim Cate from Connecticut. Cate had a big first full season in 2019, posting a 3.07 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 139/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings at Class A Hagerstown and High A Potomac. The biggest thing for Cate in 2019 was going to be proving he was healthy after missing time during his junior season with forearm problems, and not only did he do that, he took it a step forward and proved he can start in pro ball. He's a 6' lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but he adds a plus-plus, swing and miss power curveball that can help him rack up the strikeouts all on its own. His command also took a step forward, and the hope is that he can continue on his current development path and become a #3 starter for the Nationals. In my opinion, he's the second best pitching prospect in the system after Jackson Rutledge.
- Sterling Sharp (2020 Age: 24-25): A 22nd round pick out of Drury University in 2016, Sharp has slowly pitched his way into the Nationals' rotation of the future. In 2019, he posted a 3.53 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 52/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings between AA Harrisburg and some lower level rehab work, though he missed a chunk of the season with oblique issues. Sharp might have the heaviest fastball in the Nationals' system, sitting in the low 90's and keeping the ball on the ground as consistently as anyone in minor league baseball. His best secondary pitch is his changeup, which dives away from left handed hitters, though his slider lacks sharpness and is probably the last hurdle he needs to clear to become a major league starter. His command is above average and his great athleticism on the mound helps him in a variety of ways, and if he can stay healthy and sharpen that slider, he could be a #3 or #4 starter. If not, he could still end up a #5, or be a long reliever.
- Jackson Rutledge (2020 Age: 21): Rutledge was considered a good draft prospect out of high school in St. Louis in 2017, but he instead attended Arkansas, got hurt, and transferred to San Jacinto Community College in Houston, where he jumped from a could-be to a legit star. After the Nationals took him in the first round in 2019, he posted a 3.13 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 39/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings across three levels in his debut, reaching Class A Hagerstown at the end. Rutledge is a huge guy who stands 6'8" and sits consistently in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a pair of distinct, swing and miss breaking balls in a curveball and a slider. That all alone gives him true ace potential, though he does have a couple of drawbacks. His control is solid but probably plays a tick below average for now, and his changeup is mediocre. Rutledge clearly has the stuff to start, and on top of the command and changeup, he'll have to a) prove he can stay healthy after missing much of 2018, and b) get just a bit more consistent with his whole game. There is work to do on Rutledge but he is already well on his way towards being an impact starting pitcher, and that's why the Nationals spent $3.45 million on him at 17th overall.
- Steven Fuentes (2020 Age: 22-23): Moved to the rotation in 2019, Fuentes took a huge step forward, posting a 2.23 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 89/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 80.2 innings at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg. However, he got suspended in July for using PED's, and we haven't sen him pitch since. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider, but he gets outs with his changeup and good command that helped him maneuver advanced lineups. We obviously have to see how he returns from the suspension, but he has the chance to be a back-end starter or a good reliever.
- Seth Romero (2020 Age: 24): Pitch for pitch, Seth Romero has probably had as much media coverage as anybody from his draft class. A standout at Houston, he put himself in position to go in the top ten picks but turned out to be, for lack of a better word, a total jackass, and multiple off-field incidents got him suspended then kicked off of the school's baseball team. The Nationals took the risk anyways in the back of the first round, but he got sent home in 2018 for continuing to be a jackass and only made seven starts at Class A Hagerstown (3.91 ERA, 34/8 K/BB). Apparently he began to turn the corner maturity-wise, but he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the 2019 season. So here we are in the 2019-2020 offseason, a few months shy of his 24th birthday, and he's thrown 47.1 professional innings. When he's on the mound, there is zero question about his talent – he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adds a swing and miss slider and a solid changeup, and commands everything well. That all points to a future as a potential #2 or #3 starter if he can stay on the mound, but we'll have to see if he's decided he actually wants to be a professional pitcher.
- Joan Adon (2020 Age: 21-22): Adon was a reliever up until 2019, when the Nationals transitioned him to the rotation and the results were very good; he had a 3.86 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 90/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at Class A Hagerstown. He can sit in the mid 90's with his power fastball, even out of the rotation, and he adds a good slider and a developing changeup with decent command. That's a great relief profile, but the Nationals like his upside in the rotation and he's athletic enough that if they can get his command to take a step forward, he could be an impact starting pitcher. He's very unproven as he hasn't thrown a pitch above Class A and turned 21 at the end of the 2019 season, but he's definitely one to watch in 2020.
- Tyler Dyson (2020 Age: 22): Dyson had the opportunity to go in the first round in 2019 with a good spring at Florida, but instead he struggled and ended up going to the Nationals in the fifth round. He seemed to turn things around a bit in his brief pro debut, where he posted a 1.07 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings, mostly at short season Auburn. When he's going right, he can sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and add a very good slider, though his slider softened up in 2019 and that helped hitters sit on and hit his straight fastball, of which his command is so-so. I'm not entirely sure what the difference was for him in pro ball, but he did succeed against wood bats in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2018 and his command appeared to be sharper. There's still a lot of potential variance in Dyson's outlook, and the low strikeout totals even in pro ball were a small red flag for me, but Dyson could be anything from a #3 starter to a middle reliever.
- Mason Denaburg (2020 Age: 20-21): The Nationals' first round pick in 2018, Denaburg has struggled to stay healthy so far in his pro career after missing time with biceps problems during his senior year at Merritt Island High School in Florida. Limited to seven appearances in 2019, he had a 7.52 ERA, a 1.82 WHIP, and a 19/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League, with both his stuff and command taking a step back. The Nationals are hoping that a clean bill of health in 2020 will get him back to being the pitcher they drafted, when he sat in the mid 90's with his fastball and added a great curveball and solid command. That's a #3 starter profile, though obviously he has a long, long way to go.
- Andry Lara (2020 Age: 17): There's not a ton of information out there about Lara, and part of that might be because he was born in 2003 (feel old?) and hasn't pitched professionally yet. Signed for $1.25 million out of Venezuela, Lara sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball already and adds an advanced curveball and changeup for a kid who is still only 16. At 6'4", he has room to fill out and has advanced feel for pitching, though we won't know much about his overall projection for a little while. He's one to just sit back and watch for now.
- Keep an eye on: Jackson Tetreault, Mario Sanchez, Malvin Pena, Jake Irvin, Niomar Gomez
Relief Pitching
- Kyle Finnegan (2020 Age: 28): At 28 years old, Finnegan certainly isn't a young prospect, but he has yet to pitch in the majors and had a strong year in the A's system in 2019 before signing with the Nationals this offseason. Finnegan, a sixth round pick out of Texas State way back in 2013, had a breakout year in the upper minors in 2019, posting a 2.31 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 72/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.2 innings at AA and AAA, continuing to pitch well even at one of the most hitter-friendly parks in professional baseball. He has a power fastball that sits in the mid to upper 90's and he adds a decent slider, though his command comes and goes and he's really a wild card. Given how poorly the Nationals' bullpen has performed, he has a real shot to be a difference maker in 2019.
- Ben Braymer (2020 Age: 26): After a mediocre run through Class A Hagerstown in 2017 (5.26 ERA), when he was already 23, Braymer has gotten it figured out and more, posting a 2.28 ERA and a 118/34 strikeout to walk ratio in A ball in 2018 and then dominating at AA Harrisburg in 2019. This year, he had a 2.51 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 69/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings for the Senators, but he struggled mightily with a promotion to hitter-friendly AAA Fresno, where he had a 7.20 ERA, a 1.93 WHIP, and a 47/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings. The former 18th round senior sign out of Auburn sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball, though he's a starter for now, he probably fits best as a left handed reliever due to the lack of a good changeup and the depth of the Nationals' major league rotation. He's been effective against both lefties and righties, but with the way he was hit up at AAA, he'll probably need that extra bullpen velocity bump to handle major league hitters. For now though, he's a starter, and he could compete with Wil Crowe, Joe Ross, and others for that fifth starter spot in 2020.
- Nick Raquet (2020 Age: 24): A third round pick out of William & Mary in 2017, Raquet looked more like a reliever out of college but he's managed to stick in the rotation so far. In 2019, he posted a 4.07 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 122/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Potomac, keeping his starting hopes alive for now. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, though the rest of his arsenal is fairly unremarkable. His command has been better than expected in the minors and that has been the difference in his success, and he may be able to cut it as a #4 or #5 starter if he can get more consistent stuff-wise. To me, it seems like he could take a big step forward if moved to the bullpen, where his fastball could add a tick of velocity and he could focus on one breaking ball, and he could shoot through the minors and become a useful set-up man or middle reliever.
- Reid Schaller (2020 Age: 23): Schaller was a third round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2018, though he's struggled to stay healthy and stay consistent with his stuff. In 2019, he had a 3.29 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 47/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings at Class A Hagerstown, missing time with injury and looking inconsistent when on the mound. He has a low to mid 90's fastball that is his best attribute, but his command isn't great and he lacks consistent secondary stuff. I think they should just stick him in the bullpen, let his fastball hit 100, and see how his slider sharpens up and if he can get himself up to the majors in that role.
- Matt Cronin (2020 Age: 22): Cronin was the Nationals' fourth round pick in 2019 out of Arkansas, and his profile is extremely straightforward. His excellent run through an aggressive initial assignment to Class A Hagerstown, in which he posted a 0.82 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 41/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 innings, shows the lethality of his low to mid 90's fastball as well as his hammer curveball, though it also highlights some inconsistent command. Cronin should be able to move very quickly through the minors and be in the majors by 2021, though improving his command will be the difference in just how quickly he moves.
- Keep an eye on: James Bourque, Jhonatan German, Karlo Seijas
Showing posts with label Wil Crowe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wil Crowe. Show all posts
Sunday, December 8, 2019
Thursday, November 22, 2018
Reviewing the Washington Nationals Farm System
Coming into the season, the Nationals' farm system was very top heavy, and with Juan Soto no longer a prospect and not much up to take his place, the system is pretty shallow behind top prospects Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom. Even with a heavy emphasis on drafting pitching in recent years, the system remains hitter-heavy as many of those pitchers have failed to materialize into legitimate prospects. Fortunately, the Nationals are fairly deep at two of the toughest positions to find: catcher and shortstop.
Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Chiefs*, AA Harrisburg Senators, High A Potomac Nationals, Class A Hagerstown Suns, Short Season Auburn Doubledays, complex level GCL and DSL Nationals
*AAA affiliate will move from Syracuse, NY to Fresno, CA in 2019
The Headliner: OF Victor Robles
21 year old Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did in 2018, but an arm injury wiped out most of his season and he finished slashing .276/.371/.370 with a pair of home runs and 19 stolen bases over 52 games, showing a nice 32/26 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Syracuse. He's an extremely advanced player for his age, showing power, on-base ability, speed, and great defense at a young age, and at this point all he needs is an extended shot. I don't think he's the future superstar that a lot of analysts have pegged him as, but I see him producing like an Adam Eaton-type player for a long time, making a few All Star teams and hitting at the top of the lineup as long as manager Dave Martinez realizes that hitting for power doesn't make you a bad leadoff man. In 21 major league games this year, he slashed .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and three stolen bases, showing that he's ready and that the Nationals should be prepared to make him their starting center fielder in 2019 and beyond.
Infield Prospects: SS Carter Kieboom, SS Luis Garcia, SS Yasel Antuna, SS Jose Sanchez, 3B Drew Ward, and 1B KJ Harrison
The Nationals system is fortunate to have plenty of shortstops in the minors, and while most of these guys will either have to move off the position or won't have the bat to hit in the majors, it's nice knowing at least one will probably work out as a starting shortstop. The most likely major leaguer is 21 year old Carter Kieboom, a shortstop right now who may be able to cut it at that position in the majors but whose more likely destination is second or third base, depending on Anthony Rendon. Kieboom missed time to injuries in 2017 but had a big 2018 by slashing .280/.357/.444 with 16 home runs and a 109/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg, showing power, plate discipline, and good defense. His game is actually fairly similar to Rendon's, and while Rendon represents more of a ceiling than a most likely outcome for Kieboom, he could be a 20 homer bat with strong on-base percentages in the majors. 18 year old Luis Garcia did more than any other position player prospect to boost his stock this year, slashing .298/.336/.406 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. The bat is a little lighter than Kieboom's, but he is exceptionally young and won't even turn 19 until May. His strong performances in A ball, with no loss of production with the promotion from Class A to High A, point to a very advanced bat for his age. As of now, he also looks like he can stick at shortstop, so the big question will be how much power he can develop. Two more infielders from Garcia's class, 19 year old Yasel Antuna and 18 year old Jose Sanchez, have not developed as quickly. Antuna spent the year at Hagerstown, slashing .220/.293/.331 with six home runs and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 87 games, while Sanchez played at Short Season Auburn and slashed .230/.309/.282 with no home runs and a 56/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. Sanchez is considered the stronger defender, perhaps even ahead of Garcia, but both bats are clearly still transitioning to pro baseball. Right now, they look like utility men at best, but a lot can change for players of that age. 23 year old Drew Ward is a different type of prospect, wielding a more advanced bat but also obviously much older. In 2018, he slashed .249/.363/.422 with 13 home runs and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at AA Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse. He has a very nice power/patience combination, but he struggles to get to his power enough for it to make much of a difference at this point and he's looking more like a bench bat who could be up in the majors by September of 2019. Lastly, 22 year old KJ Harrison came over in the Gio Gonzalez trade and really struggled in his first full season after being drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of Oregon State in 2017. In 115 games at the Brewers' Class A affiliate, he slashed .228/.298/.384 with 12 home runs and a 147/39 strikeout to walk ratio, showing some power but overall not looking like the fairly advanced bat the Brewers thought they were drafting. He has a chance to turn it around in 2019, but he can't really afford another lost season like 2018.
Outfielders and Catchers: OF Daniel Johnson, OF Austin Davidson, OF Gage Canning, OF Telmito Agustin, C Raudy Read, C Tres Barrera, and C Israel Pineda
The outfield isn't as deep as the infield, with only five prospects with any kind of projection (the previously mentioned Victor Robles being the fifth), and all of them come with plenty of risk. 23 year old Daniel Johnson put himself on the map with a breakout 2017 in A ball (.298/.356/.505, 22 HR, 22 SB) but slowed down a bit in 2018 with a .269/.327/.412 line, seven home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games, mostly at AA Harrisburg. Last year, Johnson flashed a power/speed combination that's hard to find, but the power wasn't really there in 2018 and right now his projection looks something along the lines of a Michael A. Taylor. 25 year old Austin Davidson is an older prospect without much projection remaining, but he's coming off a nice season where he slashed .292/.374/.482 with 11 home runs and a 53/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Potomac and Harrisburg. He could be a nice bench bat but probably not more. Deeper into the minors, 21 year old Gage Canning had a nice debut after being drafted in the fifth round out of Arizona State this year, slashing .253/.319/.470 with six home runs and a 54/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between Short Season Auburn and Class A Hagerstown, with the bulk of the production coming before his promotion. Right now, Canning has a fourth outfielder projection, but I would not count him out as a potential starter down the road as he has few weaknesses in his game as an all-around solid contributor. He's a breakout candidate for 2019. 22 year old Telmito Agustin has been very slow to get his minor league career going, and he just wrapped up his fifth minor league season by slashing .273/.338/.404 with six home runs and a 63/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games between Auburn and Potomac. He's a good hitter that shows all-around skills at the plate when he's healthy, but he has never been healthy for long enough to really find his groove at the plate and show what he can do. The Nationals are hoping to get another potential fourth outfielder out of him, but he has to stay healthy to become that. Of the three notable catchers in the system, which the Nationals are fortunate to have, 25 year old Raudy Read is the most advanced. Read had a power breakout in 2017 by slugging 17 home runs, but he was then busted for PED's and came back to slash .279/.319/.401 with just three home runs at Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse after his suspension in 2018. He's a solid defensive catcher, but with a so-so bat, he's likely to compete with Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom for the backup catcher's spot in 2019. A little farther down the line, 24 year old Tres Barrera slashed .263/.334/.386 with six home runs and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio at Potomac, also showing a so-so bat to go along with good defense. There is definitely some power in the bat and he keeps his strikeout rate reasonably low, but as with Read, it looks more like a backup catcher's profile. Perhaps the highest ceiling catcher in the Nationals' system is 18 year old Israel Pineda, who slashed a very respectable .273/.341/.388 with four home runs and a 35/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games down at Auburn. He's an advanced hitter for a teenager, especially for a catcher, and he should also be noted on that list of potential breakouts for 2019. If all goes well (which is definitely not a given with catching prospects), Pineda could occupy a very different spot in the Nationals' minor league depth chart a year from now.
Right Handed Pitchers: Wil Crowe, Mason Denaburg, Sterling Sharp, James Bourque, Jackson Tetreault, and Reid Schaller
The Nationals have traded away tons of pitching talent recently, and they're left with a fairly shallow pool. Among the right handers in the group, 24 year old Wil Crowe is the closest impact arm to the majors. He dominated at High A Potomac (11-0, 2.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 78/30 K/BB in 87 IP) but struggled upon his promotion to AA Harrisburg (0-5, 6.15 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 15/16 K/BB in 26.1 IP). He's a big 6'2" righty from East Tennessee, and he gets by showing decent control of mid-rotation stuff. Crowe has to acclimate to the upper minors, as he has proven that A ball hitting is no match for him. His combination of stuff and command is good enough for the upper levels, so it's just a matter of time and he should end up as a #4ish starter. 19 year old Mason Denaburg, meanwhile, was the team's first round pick (27th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2018, and he's all ceiling and no floor. Denaburg has the stuff to be a #2 or #3 starter, and his good athleticism only makes him more likely to become one, but he has not pitched yet due to arm troubles and he has a lot to prove. He should be healthy for 2019, so look for him to start either in Short Season ball or up at Class A Hagerstown, where he could quickly become the system's top pitching prospect with some success out of the gate. 23 year old Sterling Sharp, aside from having an awesome name, just put up a solid season by going 11-6 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between Potomac and Harrisburg. He wasn't spectacular, but he showed good enough stuff and command to fit into the back of the rotation, and while his skinny 6'4" frame logically lends itself to increased velocity down the line, at 23 years old he probably is what he is at this point. 25 year old James Bourque is exclusively a relief-only prospect, having found success in the bullpen after being converted from starting over the offseason. This year, he put up a 1.70 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 76/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at Potomac and Harrisburg, showing a power fastball/curveball combination that is good enough to get major leaguers out but which he needs to command better. Expect him up in the majors as a middle reliever some time in 2019. 22 year old Jackson Tetreault was one of two Florida JuCo Jacksons taken by the Nationals in the middle rounds of the 2017 draft, and while Jackson Stoeckinger hasn't been great, Tetreault just put up a 4.07 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 138/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. Tetrault has a very good fastball/curveball combination, and he could be a mid rotation or back end starter if his changeup comes along. If not, he fits well as a reliever and would move quicker through the minors that way, though the Nationals rightly hold out hope he could be a major league starter. 21 year old Reid Schaller was a third round pick (101st overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2018, and though he's a college arm, he's more of the projectable type than the safe-bet type. Schaller throws hard, but at this point, that's about it, as he doesn't command his average stuff well. The Nationals will hope to develop him as a starter, but he looks more like a set-up man to me.
Left Handed Pitchers: Seth Romero, Tim Cate, Nick Raquet, and Ben Braymer
Currently, the Nationals have four notable left handed pitchers in their system, and they're a fairly diverse group. 22 year old Seth Romero is probably the most interesting not only in this group but in the entire system, having thrown just 47.1 professional innings since he was drafted in the first round (25th overall) out of the University of Houston in 2017. A top ten draft pick on talent alone, he fell because of severe disciplinary issues (he was actually kicked off of his college baseball team after multiple suspensions) and had to miss the start of the 2018 minor league season after more disciplinary issues. In seven starts after coming back, he posted a 3.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at Class A Hagerstown, showing the possible front of the rotation stuff that earned him such a high draft pick. If he can just grow up a little bit, his excellent combination of stuff and command could make him a #2 starter, but he has to get on the mound and stay out of trouble at some point in order for that to happen. 21 year old Tim Cate was a second round pick (65th overall) out of UConn in 2018, and he posted a 5.02 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 45/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings between Short Season Auburn and Hagerstown in his pro debut. Cate is an undersized lefty at 6', but his curveball was considered one of the best in the draft and that is a good building block for now. He was inconsistent throughout his college career, but when he was on, he looked like a legitimate mid-rotation starter who could mix pitches and work off that great curveball, so he just has to work on getting more consistent with his command and other pitches. He still could be a mid-rotation starter, but there is a chance he ends up in the bullpen, where he could still be an impact arm. 22 year old Nick Raquet was a third round pick (103rd overall) out of William & Mary in 2017, and at the time I thought he profiled better as a reliever than as a starter. He was pretty good as a starter in 2018 though, posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 92/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings between Hagerstown and High A Potomac. The low strikeout rate makes me think he still would look better as a reliever, where his stuff plays up and his command is better (based off of observations from watching him pitch in college), but it was nice to see him pitch well as a starter at Hagerstown then hold his own at Potomac. 24 year old Ben Braymer dominated mid level competition in 2018, going 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 118/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings for Hagerstown and Potomac. He was older than most of the competition he faced, but he showed good command of average stuff and could make it to the majors as a #5 starter or a Sammy Solis-type long reliever. We need to see him at higher levels but don't count him out just for his age.
Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Chiefs*, AA Harrisburg Senators, High A Potomac Nationals, Class A Hagerstown Suns, Short Season Auburn Doubledays, complex level GCL and DSL Nationals
*AAA affiliate will move from Syracuse, NY to Fresno, CA in 2019
The Headliner: OF Victor Robles
21 year old Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did in 2018, but an arm injury wiped out most of his season and he finished slashing .276/.371/.370 with a pair of home runs and 19 stolen bases over 52 games, showing a nice 32/26 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Syracuse. He's an extremely advanced player for his age, showing power, on-base ability, speed, and great defense at a young age, and at this point all he needs is an extended shot. I don't think he's the future superstar that a lot of analysts have pegged him as, but I see him producing like an Adam Eaton-type player for a long time, making a few All Star teams and hitting at the top of the lineup as long as manager Dave Martinez realizes that hitting for power doesn't make you a bad leadoff man. In 21 major league games this year, he slashed .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and three stolen bases, showing that he's ready and that the Nationals should be prepared to make him their starting center fielder in 2019 and beyond.
Infield Prospects: SS Carter Kieboom, SS Luis Garcia, SS Yasel Antuna, SS Jose Sanchez, 3B Drew Ward, and 1B KJ Harrison
The Nationals system is fortunate to have plenty of shortstops in the minors, and while most of these guys will either have to move off the position or won't have the bat to hit in the majors, it's nice knowing at least one will probably work out as a starting shortstop. The most likely major leaguer is 21 year old Carter Kieboom, a shortstop right now who may be able to cut it at that position in the majors but whose more likely destination is second or third base, depending on Anthony Rendon. Kieboom missed time to injuries in 2017 but had a big 2018 by slashing .280/.357/.444 with 16 home runs and a 109/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg, showing power, plate discipline, and good defense. His game is actually fairly similar to Rendon's, and while Rendon represents more of a ceiling than a most likely outcome for Kieboom, he could be a 20 homer bat with strong on-base percentages in the majors. 18 year old Luis Garcia did more than any other position player prospect to boost his stock this year, slashing .298/.336/.406 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. The bat is a little lighter than Kieboom's, but he is exceptionally young and won't even turn 19 until May. His strong performances in A ball, with no loss of production with the promotion from Class A to High A, point to a very advanced bat for his age. As of now, he also looks like he can stick at shortstop, so the big question will be how much power he can develop. Two more infielders from Garcia's class, 19 year old Yasel Antuna and 18 year old Jose Sanchez, have not developed as quickly. Antuna spent the year at Hagerstown, slashing .220/.293/.331 with six home runs and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 87 games, while Sanchez played at Short Season Auburn and slashed .230/.309/.282 with no home runs and a 56/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. Sanchez is considered the stronger defender, perhaps even ahead of Garcia, but both bats are clearly still transitioning to pro baseball. Right now, they look like utility men at best, but a lot can change for players of that age. 23 year old Drew Ward is a different type of prospect, wielding a more advanced bat but also obviously much older. In 2018, he slashed .249/.363/.422 with 13 home runs and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at AA Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse. He has a very nice power/patience combination, but he struggles to get to his power enough for it to make much of a difference at this point and he's looking more like a bench bat who could be up in the majors by September of 2019. Lastly, 22 year old KJ Harrison came over in the Gio Gonzalez trade and really struggled in his first full season after being drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of Oregon State in 2017. In 115 games at the Brewers' Class A affiliate, he slashed .228/.298/.384 with 12 home runs and a 147/39 strikeout to walk ratio, showing some power but overall not looking like the fairly advanced bat the Brewers thought they were drafting. He has a chance to turn it around in 2019, but he can't really afford another lost season like 2018.
Outfielders and Catchers: OF Daniel Johnson, OF Austin Davidson, OF Gage Canning, OF Telmito Agustin, C Raudy Read, C Tres Barrera, and C Israel Pineda
The outfield isn't as deep as the infield, with only five prospects with any kind of projection (the previously mentioned Victor Robles being the fifth), and all of them come with plenty of risk. 23 year old Daniel Johnson put himself on the map with a breakout 2017 in A ball (.298/.356/.505, 22 HR, 22 SB) but slowed down a bit in 2018 with a .269/.327/.412 line, seven home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games, mostly at AA Harrisburg. Last year, Johnson flashed a power/speed combination that's hard to find, but the power wasn't really there in 2018 and right now his projection looks something along the lines of a Michael A. Taylor. 25 year old Austin Davidson is an older prospect without much projection remaining, but he's coming off a nice season where he slashed .292/.374/.482 with 11 home runs and a 53/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Potomac and Harrisburg. He could be a nice bench bat but probably not more. Deeper into the minors, 21 year old Gage Canning had a nice debut after being drafted in the fifth round out of Arizona State this year, slashing .253/.319/.470 with six home runs and a 54/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between Short Season Auburn and Class A Hagerstown, with the bulk of the production coming before his promotion. Right now, Canning has a fourth outfielder projection, but I would not count him out as a potential starter down the road as he has few weaknesses in his game as an all-around solid contributor. He's a breakout candidate for 2019. 22 year old Telmito Agustin has been very slow to get his minor league career going, and he just wrapped up his fifth minor league season by slashing .273/.338/.404 with six home runs and a 63/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games between Auburn and Potomac. He's a good hitter that shows all-around skills at the plate when he's healthy, but he has never been healthy for long enough to really find his groove at the plate and show what he can do. The Nationals are hoping to get another potential fourth outfielder out of him, but he has to stay healthy to become that. Of the three notable catchers in the system, which the Nationals are fortunate to have, 25 year old Raudy Read is the most advanced. Read had a power breakout in 2017 by slugging 17 home runs, but he was then busted for PED's and came back to slash .279/.319/.401 with just three home runs at Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse after his suspension in 2018. He's a solid defensive catcher, but with a so-so bat, he's likely to compete with Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom for the backup catcher's spot in 2019. A little farther down the line, 24 year old Tres Barrera slashed .263/.334/.386 with six home runs and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio at Potomac, also showing a so-so bat to go along with good defense. There is definitely some power in the bat and he keeps his strikeout rate reasonably low, but as with Read, it looks more like a backup catcher's profile. Perhaps the highest ceiling catcher in the Nationals' system is 18 year old Israel Pineda, who slashed a very respectable .273/.341/.388 with four home runs and a 35/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games down at Auburn. He's an advanced hitter for a teenager, especially for a catcher, and he should also be noted on that list of potential breakouts for 2019. If all goes well (which is definitely not a given with catching prospects), Pineda could occupy a very different spot in the Nationals' minor league depth chart a year from now.
Right Handed Pitchers: Wil Crowe, Mason Denaburg, Sterling Sharp, James Bourque, Jackson Tetreault, and Reid Schaller
The Nationals have traded away tons of pitching talent recently, and they're left with a fairly shallow pool. Among the right handers in the group, 24 year old Wil Crowe is the closest impact arm to the majors. He dominated at High A Potomac (11-0, 2.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 78/30 K/BB in 87 IP) but struggled upon his promotion to AA Harrisburg (0-5, 6.15 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 15/16 K/BB in 26.1 IP). He's a big 6'2" righty from East Tennessee, and he gets by showing decent control of mid-rotation stuff. Crowe has to acclimate to the upper minors, as he has proven that A ball hitting is no match for him. His combination of stuff and command is good enough for the upper levels, so it's just a matter of time and he should end up as a #4ish starter. 19 year old Mason Denaburg, meanwhile, was the team's first round pick (27th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2018, and he's all ceiling and no floor. Denaburg has the stuff to be a #2 or #3 starter, and his good athleticism only makes him more likely to become one, but he has not pitched yet due to arm troubles and he has a lot to prove. He should be healthy for 2019, so look for him to start either in Short Season ball or up at Class A Hagerstown, where he could quickly become the system's top pitching prospect with some success out of the gate. 23 year old Sterling Sharp, aside from having an awesome name, just put up a solid season by going 11-6 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between Potomac and Harrisburg. He wasn't spectacular, but he showed good enough stuff and command to fit into the back of the rotation, and while his skinny 6'4" frame logically lends itself to increased velocity down the line, at 23 years old he probably is what he is at this point. 25 year old James Bourque is exclusively a relief-only prospect, having found success in the bullpen after being converted from starting over the offseason. This year, he put up a 1.70 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 76/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at Potomac and Harrisburg, showing a power fastball/curveball combination that is good enough to get major leaguers out but which he needs to command better. Expect him up in the majors as a middle reliever some time in 2019. 22 year old Jackson Tetreault was one of two Florida JuCo Jacksons taken by the Nationals in the middle rounds of the 2017 draft, and while Jackson Stoeckinger hasn't been great, Tetreault just put up a 4.07 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 138/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. Tetrault has a very good fastball/curveball combination, and he could be a mid rotation or back end starter if his changeup comes along. If not, he fits well as a reliever and would move quicker through the minors that way, though the Nationals rightly hold out hope he could be a major league starter. 21 year old Reid Schaller was a third round pick (101st overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2018, and though he's a college arm, he's more of the projectable type than the safe-bet type. Schaller throws hard, but at this point, that's about it, as he doesn't command his average stuff well. The Nationals will hope to develop him as a starter, but he looks more like a set-up man to me.
Left Handed Pitchers: Seth Romero, Tim Cate, Nick Raquet, and Ben Braymer
Currently, the Nationals have four notable left handed pitchers in their system, and they're a fairly diverse group. 22 year old Seth Romero is probably the most interesting not only in this group but in the entire system, having thrown just 47.1 professional innings since he was drafted in the first round (25th overall) out of the University of Houston in 2017. A top ten draft pick on talent alone, he fell because of severe disciplinary issues (he was actually kicked off of his college baseball team after multiple suspensions) and had to miss the start of the 2018 minor league season after more disciplinary issues. In seven starts after coming back, he posted a 3.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at Class A Hagerstown, showing the possible front of the rotation stuff that earned him such a high draft pick. If he can just grow up a little bit, his excellent combination of stuff and command could make him a #2 starter, but he has to get on the mound and stay out of trouble at some point in order for that to happen. 21 year old Tim Cate was a second round pick (65th overall) out of UConn in 2018, and he posted a 5.02 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 45/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings between Short Season Auburn and Hagerstown in his pro debut. Cate is an undersized lefty at 6', but his curveball was considered one of the best in the draft and that is a good building block for now. He was inconsistent throughout his college career, but when he was on, he looked like a legitimate mid-rotation starter who could mix pitches and work off that great curveball, so he just has to work on getting more consistent with his command and other pitches. He still could be a mid-rotation starter, but there is a chance he ends up in the bullpen, where he could still be an impact arm. 22 year old Nick Raquet was a third round pick (103rd overall) out of William & Mary in 2017, and at the time I thought he profiled better as a reliever than as a starter. He was pretty good as a starter in 2018 though, posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 92/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings between Hagerstown and High A Potomac. The low strikeout rate makes me think he still would look better as a reliever, where his stuff plays up and his command is better (based off of observations from watching him pitch in college), but it was nice to see him pitch well as a starter at Hagerstown then hold his own at Potomac. 24 year old Ben Braymer dominated mid level competition in 2018, going 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 118/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings for Hagerstown and Potomac. He was older than most of the competition he faced, but he showed good command of average stuff and could make it to the majors as a #5 starter or a Sammy Solis-type long reliever. We need to see him at higher levels but don't count him out just for his age.
Tuesday, July 4, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Washington Nationals
First 5 rounds: Seth Romero (1-25), Wil Crowe (2-65), Nick Raquet (3-103), Cole Freeman (4-133), Brigham Hill (5-163)
Also notable: Kyle Johnston (6-193), Jackson Tetreault (7-223), Alex Troop (9-283), Bryce Montes de Oca (15-463)
If you took one look at the Nationals' early draft, you'd think they needed relief help badly. Oh yeah. So the Nationals have a great team, with their big bats and great starting pitching leading the team to success, but their terrible bullpen seems like it is trying to blow every lead they can. So, the Nationals went into this draft with a very clear strategy: find someone who can join the bullpen by September. With this in mind, they took nine college pitchers in the first ten rounds, then grabbed college pitchers again in the 12th, 15th, 17th, 20th, 21st, you get it. In all, they came away with 19 college pitchers in 40 rounds, with the hope that at least one of them is ready for a playoff run.
1-25: LHP Seth Romero (my rank: 30)
My ranking of Romero is a bit arbitrary because there are no questions about his ability on the field, just his maturity off of it, and that can only be measured by talking to him in person, which I haven't done. On talent alone, Romero might have been a top ten pick, and this pick could be a steal for the Nationals. That said, Romero has been suspended from the University of Houston baseball team twice and was subsequently kicked off the team, so we don't really know what we're getting. When he's on the mound, he's straight up dominant. Over three years with the Cougars, Romero went 17-13 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 290 batters in 226.1 innings. His swing and miss stuff includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a power slider that can be plus at times, and a solid changeup. He commands it all well, and when he's keeping up with his conditioning, he has a durable starter's build. If he didn't have the maturity question marks, he'd be a safe bet to start in the majors, and he still is a starter for the Nationals long term in the most likely scenario. However, like everybody else in this draft class, there is a chance the Nationals pull a David Price with Romero and convert him to a lefty reliever this year, fast track him to the majors by the September, and convert him back to a starter afterwards. However, he hasn't signed yet, and I haven't been able to find anything on whether he will or not. The Nationals only have $2,000 left in their bonus pool to go over slot with Romero and 15th rounder Bryce Montes de Oca, but if they end up going underslot on Romero, they could use that money to grab Montes de Oca.
2-65: RHP Wil Crowe (my rank: 45)
The Nationals were very happy that Crowe fell to them here, and who can blame them? Even though he comes with a few question marks, Crowe has flashed the potential to be a workhorse starter at the major league level, and his solid three year career at South Carolina backs that up (17-12, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 208 K's in 235.1 IP). He throws a low to mid 90's sinker and backs it up with a pair of solid breaking balls, as well as a progressing changeup. It's a classic starter's profile coming from a 6'2", 250 pound frame, but he did miss all of 2016 with Tommy John surgery, and he seemed to get fatigued down the stretch this year. He'll also be 23 in September. He's less likely to crack the bullpen by September, but he could be fast tracked as a starter beginning with next spring. Crowe signed for $946,500, exactly slot value.
3-103: LHP Nick Raquet (unranked)
Raquet is a prime example of a player who might be fast tracked to the big league bullpen this year. He didn't put up great numbers as a starter at William & Mary this year (2-2, 4.66 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 95/45 K/BB), but a conversion to the bullpen could do him wonders. I got the chance to watch him pitch in March, where he showcased a low to mid 90's fastball as a starter with a very good curveball and a sinking changeup. However, as the game progressed, the stuff gradually backed up, but I think all three pitches have plus potential if used in short bursts, you know, as a reliever. He has a high effort delivery and struggles with his command when he tries to overthrow, but when confined to a bullpen role, he could be a late-inning reliever, and soon. Raquet signed for $475,000, which is $47,300 below slot.
4-133: 2B Cole Freeman (unranked)
Freeman is a 5'9" infielder who played second base for LSU the past two seasons. He wasn't spectacular, but he slashed .321/.421/.403 over his two seasons showing an ability to get on base and avoid strikeouts (7.8% K-rate). His very short swing won't bring much power, but he can work his way up through the system as a utility man with a ceiling of Wilmer Difo with less athleticism, but a high floor with a good chance to get to the majors at least in that reserve role. Freeman signed for $340,000, which is $50,000 below slot.
5-163: RHP Brigham Hill (unranked)
Back to the pitchers, Brigham Hill has been a big part of the Texas A&M rotation the past two seasons, going 17-5 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, striking out 210 and walking 59 in 197 innings. He's a bit similar to a right handed Oliver Jaskie, coming in at 5'10" with a low 90's sinker and a plus changeup, though his curveball is below average at this point. He's another guy that the Nationals will try to fast track as a reliever, and he has a good chance to be the guy to make it to the bigs due to his competitive nature on the mound and advanced pitchability. Hill signed for $291,200, which is slot value for the 163rd pick.
6-193: RHP Kyle Johnston (unranked)
Another college starter who will be converted to a reliever, though his results haven't quite matched the stuff yet. Mostly as a starter at Texas this year, he went 3-2 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, striking out 52 in 73.1 innings. As a reliever, he can run his fastball into the mid 90's, and his cutter/slider could be a plus pitch in the majors. However, he still struggles with command, and if anything keeps him from making it to the majors, that's what it will be. He signed an at-slot deal of $226,100.
15-463: RHP Bryce Montes de Oca (my rank: 90)
Montes de Oca will be a steal in the 15th round if the Nationals can sign him, which hasn't happened yet. The gigantic 6'7", 265 pound right hander runs his fastball into the upper 90's and he has a solid curveball that will play up in relief. The upside is that of a big league closer, but he also carries tremendous risk for a college pitcher. Montes de Oca has struggled to stay healthy, missing his junior year of high school with Tommy John and much of his sophomore year at Missouri with nerve surgery on his elbow. In all, he had thrown just 8.1 collegiate innings coming into this season, but he was healthy enough to throw 61 this year, going 4-5 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, striking out 61 but walking 42 over 15 games (12 starts). He'll be converted to relief with the Nationals if he signs, where his big fastball could get him through the minors quickly if he can stay healthy and improve on his terrible command. The Nationals only have $2,000 left in their bonus pool and would likely have to sign Romero to an underslot deal to be able to afford Montes de Oca.
Others: 7th rounder Jackson Tetreault is a JuCo righty from Florida, though I can't seem to find any public video on him. He's a projectable 6'5", running his fastball into the mid 90's and showing good secondaries, though he has trouble locating his stuff. He has a high ceiling for the 7th round and signed $121,900 over slot. 8th rounder Jared Brasher comes from Samford, where he was converted to relief this year and put up a 3.74 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 22 appearances, striking out 46 but walking 30 in 33.2 innings. As you can tell from the stats, he throws very hard, running his fastball into the upper 90's, and his mid to upper 80's slider can be a swing and miss pitch as well. The only problem is he has no idea where his pitches are going, and he's walked 85 batters in 86 innings over the past two seasons. If the Nationals can clean up his command, he could be a bullpen arm soon. 9th rounder Alex Troop was a two-way player at Michigan State, but after he went 8-3 with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 14 starts, the Nationals popped him as a left handed pitcher. He throws his fastball in the upper 80's with a straight over the top delivery, and like Brigham Hill, he has a very good changeup. However, unlike Hill, Troop is 6'5" and left handed, which means the Nationals could unlock some potential if they develop him right. 18th rounder Nick Choruby is a future fourth or fifth outfielder due to his lack of power, but he did slash .321/.441/.415 for Texas A&M this year, and he has enough speed to stick in center field. An advanced hitter, he walked in 16% of his plate appearances this year, and he has 24 stolen bases over the past two seasons for the Aggies despite a hip flexor injury that slowed him down. 20th rounder Jake Cousins is the cousin of Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins, and Jake is coming off a successful four year career at Penn where he went 20-7 with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 38 games (31 starts), striking out 158 in 197.2 innings.
Also notable: Kyle Johnston (6-193), Jackson Tetreault (7-223), Alex Troop (9-283), Bryce Montes de Oca (15-463)
If you took one look at the Nationals' early draft, you'd think they needed relief help badly. Oh yeah. So the Nationals have a great team, with their big bats and great starting pitching leading the team to success, but their terrible bullpen seems like it is trying to blow every lead they can. So, the Nationals went into this draft with a very clear strategy: find someone who can join the bullpen by September. With this in mind, they took nine college pitchers in the first ten rounds, then grabbed college pitchers again in the 12th, 15th, 17th, 20th, 21st, you get it. In all, they came away with 19 college pitchers in 40 rounds, with the hope that at least one of them is ready for a playoff run.
1-25: LHP Seth Romero (my rank: 30)
My ranking of Romero is a bit arbitrary because there are no questions about his ability on the field, just his maturity off of it, and that can only be measured by talking to him in person, which I haven't done. On talent alone, Romero might have been a top ten pick, and this pick could be a steal for the Nationals. That said, Romero has been suspended from the University of Houston baseball team twice and was subsequently kicked off the team, so we don't really know what we're getting. When he's on the mound, he's straight up dominant. Over three years with the Cougars, Romero went 17-13 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 290 batters in 226.1 innings. His swing and miss stuff includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a power slider that can be plus at times, and a solid changeup. He commands it all well, and when he's keeping up with his conditioning, he has a durable starter's build. If he didn't have the maturity question marks, he'd be a safe bet to start in the majors, and he still is a starter for the Nationals long term in the most likely scenario. However, like everybody else in this draft class, there is a chance the Nationals pull a David Price with Romero and convert him to a lefty reliever this year, fast track him to the majors by the September, and convert him back to a starter afterwards. However, he hasn't signed yet, and I haven't been able to find anything on whether he will or not. The Nationals only have $2,000 left in their bonus pool to go over slot with Romero and 15th rounder Bryce Montes de Oca, but if they end up going underslot on Romero, they could use that money to grab Montes de Oca.
2-65: RHP Wil Crowe (my rank: 45)
The Nationals were very happy that Crowe fell to them here, and who can blame them? Even though he comes with a few question marks, Crowe has flashed the potential to be a workhorse starter at the major league level, and his solid three year career at South Carolina backs that up (17-12, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 208 K's in 235.1 IP). He throws a low to mid 90's sinker and backs it up with a pair of solid breaking balls, as well as a progressing changeup. It's a classic starter's profile coming from a 6'2", 250 pound frame, but he did miss all of 2016 with Tommy John surgery, and he seemed to get fatigued down the stretch this year. He'll also be 23 in September. He's less likely to crack the bullpen by September, but he could be fast tracked as a starter beginning with next spring. Crowe signed for $946,500, exactly slot value.
3-103: LHP Nick Raquet (unranked)
Raquet is a prime example of a player who might be fast tracked to the big league bullpen this year. He didn't put up great numbers as a starter at William & Mary this year (2-2, 4.66 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 95/45 K/BB), but a conversion to the bullpen could do him wonders. I got the chance to watch him pitch in March, where he showcased a low to mid 90's fastball as a starter with a very good curveball and a sinking changeup. However, as the game progressed, the stuff gradually backed up, but I think all three pitches have plus potential if used in short bursts, you know, as a reliever. He has a high effort delivery and struggles with his command when he tries to overthrow, but when confined to a bullpen role, he could be a late-inning reliever, and soon. Raquet signed for $475,000, which is $47,300 below slot.
4-133: 2B Cole Freeman (unranked)
Freeman is a 5'9" infielder who played second base for LSU the past two seasons. He wasn't spectacular, but he slashed .321/.421/.403 over his two seasons showing an ability to get on base and avoid strikeouts (7.8% K-rate). His very short swing won't bring much power, but he can work his way up through the system as a utility man with a ceiling of Wilmer Difo with less athleticism, but a high floor with a good chance to get to the majors at least in that reserve role. Freeman signed for $340,000, which is $50,000 below slot.
5-163: RHP Brigham Hill (unranked)
Back to the pitchers, Brigham Hill has been a big part of the Texas A&M rotation the past two seasons, going 17-5 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, striking out 210 and walking 59 in 197 innings. He's a bit similar to a right handed Oliver Jaskie, coming in at 5'10" with a low 90's sinker and a plus changeup, though his curveball is below average at this point. He's another guy that the Nationals will try to fast track as a reliever, and he has a good chance to be the guy to make it to the bigs due to his competitive nature on the mound and advanced pitchability. Hill signed for $291,200, which is slot value for the 163rd pick.
6-193: RHP Kyle Johnston (unranked)
Another college starter who will be converted to a reliever, though his results haven't quite matched the stuff yet. Mostly as a starter at Texas this year, he went 3-2 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, striking out 52 in 73.1 innings. As a reliever, he can run his fastball into the mid 90's, and his cutter/slider could be a plus pitch in the majors. However, he still struggles with command, and if anything keeps him from making it to the majors, that's what it will be. He signed an at-slot deal of $226,100.
15-463: RHP Bryce Montes de Oca (my rank: 90)
Montes de Oca will be a steal in the 15th round if the Nationals can sign him, which hasn't happened yet. The gigantic 6'7", 265 pound right hander runs his fastball into the upper 90's and he has a solid curveball that will play up in relief. The upside is that of a big league closer, but he also carries tremendous risk for a college pitcher. Montes de Oca has struggled to stay healthy, missing his junior year of high school with Tommy John and much of his sophomore year at Missouri with nerve surgery on his elbow. In all, he had thrown just 8.1 collegiate innings coming into this season, but he was healthy enough to throw 61 this year, going 4-5 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, striking out 61 but walking 42 over 15 games (12 starts). He'll be converted to relief with the Nationals if he signs, where his big fastball could get him through the minors quickly if he can stay healthy and improve on his terrible command. The Nationals only have $2,000 left in their bonus pool and would likely have to sign Romero to an underslot deal to be able to afford Montes de Oca.
Others: 7th rounder Jackson Tetreault is a JuCo righty from Florida, though I can't seem to find any public video on him. He's a projectable 6'5", running his fastball into the mid 90's and showing good secondaries, though he has trouble locating his stuff. He has a high ceiling for the 7th round and signed $121,900 over slot. 8th rounder Jared Brasher comes from Samford, where he was converted to relief this year and put up a 3.74 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 22 appearances, striking out 46 but walking 30 in 33.2 innings. As you can tell from the stats, he throws very hard, running his fastball into the upper 90's, and his mid to upper 80's slider can be a swing and miss pitch as well. The only problem is he has no idea where his pitches are going, and he's walked 85 batters in 86 innings over the past two seasons. If the Nationals can clean up his command, he could be a bullpen arm soon. 9th rounder Alex Troop was a two-way player at Michigan State, but after he went 8-3 with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 14 starts, the Nationals popped him as a left handed pitcher. He throws his fastball in the upper 80's with a straight over the top delivery, and like Brigham Hill, he has a very good changeup. However, unlike Hill, Troop is 6'5" and left handed, which means the Nationals could unlock some potential if they develop him right. 18th rounder Nick Choruby is a future fourth or fifth outfielder due to his lack of power, but he did slash .321/.441/.415 for Texas A&M this year, and he has enough speed to stick in center field. An advanced hitter, he walked in 16% of his plate appearances this year, and he has 24 stolen bases over the past two seasons for the Aggies despite a hip flexor injury that slowed him down. 20th rounder Jake Cousins is the cousin of Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins, and Jake is coming off a successful four year career at Penn where he went 20-7 with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 38 games (31 starts), striking out 158 in 197.2 innings.
Sunday, June 11, 2017
2017 Draft Demographic Preview: SEC Arms
1st Tier: Kyle Wright, Alex Faedo
2nd Tier: Alex Lange, Tanner Houck, Clarke Schmidt, Wil Crowe, Corbin Martin
3rd Tier: Blaine Knight, Bryce Montes de Oca, Trevor Stephan, Tyler Johnson
Others: Keegan Thompson, Zach Pop
The SEC, or the Southeastern Conference, is baseball's premier college conference, including South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Louisiana State, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. More than anything, the SEC is known for producing high quality arms, recently David Price (Vanderbilt), Max Scherzer (Missouri), Dallas Keuchel (Arkansas), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), and Drew Pomeranz (Ole Miss) among many, many others. Aside from the track record, one reason teams love SEC arms is that the pitchers get tested against the highest levels of collegiate competition, giving teams the best idea of how they'll perform going forward. Since all of these players play in the same conference and are therefore mostly context-neutral, I included their 2017 stats in each tier.
Admittedly, I'm just sort of making excuses to write about and compare different sets of players at this point, and this is of no offense to the ACC, led by powerhouses Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Virginia, among others (somewhere in the distance, my own mediocre baseball school in the ACC, Virginia Tech, screams for a mention).
Tier I (Wright, Faedo)
Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt): 5-6, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 121/31 K/BB
Alex Faedo (Florida): 7-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 123/34 K/BB
Kyle Wright and Alex Faedo were roughly equal coming into the season, and my slight preference for Wright turned out to be correct (so far) as the Vanderbilt ace has pushed himself to the very top of the draft. In fact, he has an excellent chance of going first overall to the Twins. Wright throws in the low to mid 90's with a devastating curveball/slider combination and a solid changeup. He has arguably the best combination of floor (#4 starter or set-up man/closer) and ceiling (ace) in this draft, though teams would have liked to see the 6'4" righty dominate the SEC just a little bit more, and he got roughed up against #1 ranked Oregon State yesterday. Factoring in Wright's tough final start against Oregon State (his ERA was below 3.00 beforehand), Faedo actually put up better numbers, but he'll almost certainly be the second SEC arm drafted. After knee surgeries in the fall, his stuff took a while to bounce back, but he sits in the low 90's with arguably the best slider in the draft class. The 6'5" righty has a more durable but less projectable build than Wright, and like his Vanderbilt counterpart, the Gator ace has a long track record of success in the SEC. While he won't go first overall, he could hear his name in the top ten and almost certainly in the top 20.
Tier II (Lange, Houck, Schmidt, Crowe, Martin)
Alex Lange (LSU): 9-5, 2.87 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 124/34 K/BB
Tanner Houck (Missouri): 4-7, 3.33 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 95/24 K/BB
Clarke Schmidt (South Carolina): 4-2, 1.30 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 70/18 K/BB
Wil Crowe (South Carolina): 6-5, 3.41 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 90/31 K/BB
Corbin Martin (Texas A&M): 7-3, 2.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 87/36 K/BB
Alex Lange's draft stock is still riding the momentum of his insane freshman season (12-0, 1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), and he is one of my favorite pitchers in this draft class. While many rankings have dropped him from the top 20 or even the top 30, he remains at #16 for me because I love his combination of SEC performance and solid arsenal. He throws in the low to mid 90's with one of the best curveballs in the class, and his changeup even has plus potential. Control has held him back when he fails to come back on-line with his deceptive but inefficient delivery, an it is what keeps him out of the top half of the first round conversation. Meanwhile, Tanner Houck has experienced falling stock for most of the spring, coming in as a potential top ten pick and likely finishing as a late first rounder. He can pump his plus to plus-plus fastball into the upper 90's, but he's sat more in the low 90's this spring, which is troublesome because he lacks a true put-away offspeed pitch. Combine that with an atypical delivery, and many project him as a future reliever, though he does have surprisingly good command. If you take a look at Clarke Schmidt's stats, you can see that he was positioning himself as a possible top ten pick, but he blew out his elbow and is now rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. That said, the stuff is pretty great, as you'd expect from the numbers. He rolls a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a solid slider/curveball combination, giving him plenty of weapons against today's Fly Ball Revolution. Teams have shown more and more willingness to draft pitchers after going under the knife, but Schmidt already had durability questions before the injury and this only raises more question marks. His teammate, Wil Crowe, had Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss his junior year, but he's back as a redshirt junior and has pitched well enough to be drafted in the first two rounds. Unlike the 6'1", 200 lb Schmidt, Crowe is a big boy at 6'2", 250 lbs. He should be more durable and is a safer bet to reach the majors, though his upside his much lower. Corbin Martin is a fairly polarizing prospect, as he has great stuff and pitched very well in the Cape Cod League last year, but he never was was able to perform in the SEC until this year. In relief, his fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's, but it is more low to mid 90's as a starter. His curveball is a plus pitch and he has a solid slider too, and with a decent changeup, the only thing missing is command; after walking 5.89 and 7.18 per nine innings in his first two seasons, he dropped that number to 3.98 in 2017, but it is still very high and leads many to believe he'll end up back in the bullpen.
Tier III (Knight, Montes de Oca, Stephan, Johnson)
Blaine Knight (Arkansas): 8-4, 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 96/20 K/BB
Bryce Montes de Oca (Missouri): 4-5, 4.43 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 61/42 K/BB
Trevor Stephan (Arkansas): 6-3, 2.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 120/20 K/BB
Tyler Johnson (South Carolina): 1-2, 2.39 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 40/15 K/BB
Blaine Knight is a draft eligible sophomore at Arkansas, turning 21 later this month. At 6'3" 165 lbs, he has one of the skinniest frames in this class, and could use to add some good weight. Where he's at now is pretty good, too, as he uses his well-located solid fastball/slider combo to get outs in bunches. All he has to do to guarantee starting is to continue developing his changeup and proving his durability, as he has most of the tools needed to be a mid-rotation force. Bryce Montes de Oca has a unique profile: standing at 6'7" and weighing 265 lbs, he's one of the biggest players in this class, and his heavily sinking fastball can hit 100 out of the bullpen. He has massive command problems as well as a medical history, and to top it all off, he has one of the coolest names in the draft. Those are the basics. Montes de Oca has been used as a starter for Missouri this season, though most, including myself, see him as a reliever at the next level, where he can blow hitters away with his velocity and hard curveball. He's among the riskiest picks in the college ranks, though, because he made just eight appearances over his first two seasons due to injuries, and he has walked 42 batters in 61 innings this season, showing almost no feel for locating pitches. Knight's Arkansas teammate, Trevor Stephan, has been an instant hit in Fayetteville, as the numbers show. Like Knight, he throws and locates a low to mid 90's fastball, but his secondary stuff lags behind his teammate's. His hard slider and decent changeup have been enough to get hitters out in the SEC, which is certainly saying something, but they'll both need to improve if he wants to cut it as a reliever at the higher levels. Tyler Johnson, a teammate of Schmidt's and Crowe's at South Carolina, is already a reliever. He runs his upper 90's fastball to both sides of the plate, and his decent slider has helped him dominate as the Gamecocks' closer. He did miss time with a sore arm this season, which caused him to be inconsistent even when he was on the mound and also hurt his command.
Others (stats only)
Keegan Thompson (Auburn): 7-4, 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 75/17 K/BB
Zach Pop (Kentucky): 1-1, 3.48 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 20/13 K/BB
2nd Tier: Alex Lange, Tanner Houck, Clarke Schmidt, Wil Crowe, Corbin Martin
3rd Tier: Blaine Knight, Bryce Montes de Oca, Trevor Stephan, Tyler Johnson
Others: Keegan Thompson, Zach Pop
The SEC, or the Southeastern Conference, is baseball's premier college conference, including South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Louisiana State, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. More than anything, the SEC is known for producing high quality arms, recently David Price (Vanderbilt), Max Scherzer (Missouri), Dallas Keuchel (Arkansas), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), and Drew Pomeranz (Ole Miss) among many, many others. Aside from the track record, one reason teams love SEC arms is that the pitchers get tested against the highest levels of collegiate competition, giving teams the best idea of how they'll perform going forward. Since all of these players play in the same conference and are therefore mostly context-neutral, I included their 2017 stats in each tier.
Admittedly, I'm just sort of making excuses to write about and compare different sets of players at this point, and this is of no offense to the ACC, led by powerhouses Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Virginia, among others (somewhere in the distance, my own mediocre baseball school in the ACC, Virginia Tech, screams for a mention).
Tier I (Wright, Faedo)
Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt): 5-6, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 121/31 K/BB
Alex Faedo (Florida): 7-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 123/34 K/BB
Kyle Wright and Alex Faedo were roughly equal coming into the season, and my slight preference for Wright turned out to be correct (so far) as the Vanderbilt ace has pushed himself to the very top of the draft. In fact, he has an excellent chance of going first overall to the Twins. Wright throws in the low to mid 90's with a devastating curveball/slider combination and a solid changeup. He has arguably the best combination of floor (#4 starter or set-up man/closer) and ceiling (ace) in this draft, though teams would have liked to see the 6'4" righty dominate the SEC just a little bit more, and he got roughed up against #1 ranked Oregon State yesterday. Factoring in Wright's tough final start against Oregon State (his ERA was below 3.00 beforehand), Faedo actually put up better numbers, but he'll almost certainly be the second SEC arm drafted. After knee surgeries in the fall, his stuff took a while to bounce back, but he sits in the low 90's with arguably the best slider in the draft class. The 6'5" righty has a more durable but less projectable build than Wright, and like his Vanderbilt counterpart, the Gator ace has a long track record of success in the SEC. While he won't go first overall, he could hear his name in the top ten and almost certainly in the top 20.
Tier II (Lange, Houck, Schmidt, Crowe, Martin)
Alex Lange (LSU): 9-5, 2.87 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 124/34 K/BB
Tanner Houck (Missouri): 4-7, 3.33 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 95/24 K/BB
Clarke Schmidt (South Carolina): 4-2, 1.30 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 70/18 K/BB
Wil Crowe (South Carolina): 6-5, 3.41 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 90/31 K/BB
Corbin Martin (Texas A&M): 7-3, 2.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 87/36 K/BB
Alex Lange's draft stock is still riding the momentum of his insane freshman season (12-0, 1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), and he is one of my favorite pitchers in this draft class. While many rankings have dropped him from the top 20 or even the top 30, he remains at #16 for me because I love his combination of SEC performance and solid arsenal. He throws in the low to mid 90's with one of the best curveballs in the class, and his changeup even has plus potential. Control has held him back when he fails to come back on-line with his deceptive but inefficient delivery, an it is what keeps him out of the top half of the first round conversation. Meanwhile, Tanner Houck has experienced falling stock for most of the spring, coming in as a potential top ten pick and likely finishing as a late first rounder. He can pump his plus to plus-plus fastball into the upper 90's, but he's sat more in the low 90's this spring, which is troublesome because he lacks a true put-away offspeed pitch. Combine that with an atypical delivery, and many project him as a future reliever, though he does have surprisingly good command. If you take a look at Clarke Schmidt's stats, you can see that he was positioning himself as a possible top ten pick, but he blew out his elbow and is now rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. That said, the stuff is pretty great, as you'd expect from the numbers. He rolls a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a solid slider/curveball combination, giving him plenty of weapons against today's Fly Ball Revolution. Teams have shown more and more willingness to draft pitchers after going under the knife, but Schmidt already had durability questions before the injury and this only raises more question marks. His teammate, Wil Crowe, had Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss his junior year, but he's back as a redshirt junior and has pitched well enough to be drafted in the first two rounds. Unlike the 6'1", 200 lb Schmidt, Crowe is a big boy at 6'2", 250 lbs. He should be more durable and is a safer bet to reach the majors, though his upside his much lower. Corbin Martin is a fairly polarizing prospect, as he has great stuff and pitched very well in the Cape Cod League last year, but he never was was able to perform in the SEC until this year. In relief, his fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's, but it is more low to mid 90's as a starter. His curveball is a plus pitch and he has a solid slider too, and with a decent changeup, the only thing missing is command; after walking 5.89 and 7.18 per nine innings in his first two seasons, he dropped that number to 3.98 in 2017, but it is still very high and leads many to believe he'll end up back in the bullpen.
Tier III (Knight, Montes de Oca, Stephan, Johnson)
Blaine Knight (Arkansas): 8-4, 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 96/20 K/BB
Bryce Montes de Oca (Missouri): 4-5, 4.43 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 61/42 K/BB
Trevor Stephan (Arkansas): 6-3, 2.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 120/20 K/BB
Tyler Johnson (South Carolina): 1-2, 2.39 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 40/15 K/BB
Blaine Knight is a draft eligible sophomore at Arkansas, turning 21 later this month. At 6'3" 165 lbs, he has one of the skinniest frames in this class, and could use to add some good weight. Where he's at now is pretty good, too, as he uses his well-located solid fastball/slider combo to get outs in bunches. All he has to do to guarantee starting is to continue developing his changeup and proving his durability, as he has most of the tools needed to be a mid-rotation force. Bryce Montes de Oca has a unique profile: standing at 6'7" and weighing 265 lbs, he's one of the biggest players in this class, and his heavily sinking fastball can hit 100 out of the bullpen. He has massive command problems as well as a medical history, and to top it all off, he has one of the coolest names in the draft. Those are the basics. Montes de Oca has been used as a starter for Missouri this season, though most, including myself, see him as a reliever at the next level, where he can blow hitters away with his velocity and hard curveball. He's among the riskiest picks in the college ranks, though, because he made just eight appearances over his first two seasons due to injuries, and he has walked 42 batters in 61 innings this season, showing almost no feel for locating pitches. Knight's Arkansas teammate, Trevor Stephan, has been an instant hit in Fayetteville, as the numbers show. Like Knight, he throws and locates a low to mid 90's fastball, but his secondary stuff lags behind his teammate's. His hard slider and decent changeup have been enough to get hitters out in the SEC, which is certainly saying something, but they'll both need to improve if he wants to cut it as a reliever at the higher levels. Tyler Johnson, a teammate of Schmidt's and Crowe's at South Carolina, is already a reliever. He runs his upper 90's fastball to both sides of the plate, and his decent slider has helped him dominate as the Gamecocks' closer. He did miss time with a sore arm this season, which caused him to be inconsistent even when he was on the mound and also hurt his command.
Others (stats only)
Keegan Thompson (Auburn): 7-4, 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 75/17 K/BB
Zach Pop (Kentucky): 1-1, 3.48 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 20/13 K/BB
Friday, June 9, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: Safe Bet College Starters
1st Tier: Brendan McKay, Alex Faedo
2nd Tier: Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Seth Romero, Wil Crowe
3rd Tier: Jake Thompson, Will Gaddis, Spencer Howard, Zac Lowther, Keegan Thompson
Others: Charlie Barnes
Also in this category: Luke Heimlich
This isn't a particularly wide-ranging demographic, so we can focus a little more on each individual player. These guys won't be aces, starting pitchers of any sort are extremely valuable, and these guys are as safe a bet as any to become just that. They have proven track records and give you a much better idea of who they are. You may recognize two big wild cards on here in Romero and Heimlich, but if you focus on their on-field abilities, they fit in this profile.
Tier I (McKay, Faedo)
Brendan McKay the pitcher (not to be confused with his alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter) may have the highest floor in this whole draft. If drafted as a pitcher, he's a pretty safe bet to at least pitch effectively somewhere in a major league rotation. The lefty throws in the low to mid 90's early in games before tapering off as the game goes by, but he should be able to fix that if he focuses solely on pitching, and he still gets the job done when his fastball is sitting 88-89. He also has one of the best curveballs in the class, with big breaking action that generates plenty of swings and misses. Alex Faedo, who is three inches taller than McKay at 6'5" but throws right handed, has had erratic fastball velocity this spring after fall knee surgeries, but still fits well in this demographic. Before the surgeries, he could dial his fastball into the mid 90's regularly, though he sat in the low 90's at the beginning of the spring before bumping his velocity back up gradually. Like McKay's curveball, Faedo's slider profiles as among the best in the class, behind perhaps only that of J.B. Bukauskas. With a decent changeup, solid control, and a strong track record in the SEC, Faedo will almost certainly end up in an MLB rotation.
Tier II (Canning, Peterson, Romero, Crowe)
Two of these players have raised their profiles this spring, while two have hurt them. Griffin Canning was considered a possible first round pick but more likely a supplemental or second rounder, while David Peterson wasn't even in the first round conversation. With strong springs, both will likely be taken in the first 20 picks. Scouts have always loved Canning's advanced feel for pitching, but they wanted him to improve on his good-not-great Pac-12 numbers. That he did, dropping his ERA from 3.70 as a sophomore to 2.34 as a junior while bumping up his strikeout percentage from a solid 20.5% to an excellent 29.4%. Meanwhile, Peterson overhauled his mechanics, and the results were terrific. His 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio was one of the most eye-popping stats in college baseball this year, and it paired nicely with his 2.51 ERA. Both Canning and Peterson throw in the low 90's with full arsenals, and while Canning has a much better curveball, Peterson's slider tops Canning's. Canning also has the better changeup of the two. The left handed Peterson (6'6", 240 lbs) is much bigger than the right handed Canning (6'1", 170 lbs), though Canning has the advantage of being eight months younger. Both pitchers will likely come off the board somewhere in the 12-20 range, and any team that considers one will consider the other. Now, Seth Romero isn't really a safe bet at all when you consider his makeup issues, which ended up getting him booted from his college team this year, but the on-field profile is as safe a bet as any, save for McKay. As long as he keeps up with his conditioning (reportedly an issue during his time at the University of Houston), he can attack hitters with a power three pitch arsenal, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a plus slider that ranks behind only Bukauskas and Faedo in the college ranks, and an above average changeup. Coming from a durable, 6'3", left handed package, that's the stuff top ten picks are made of if they don't get themselves kicked off their teams. Lastly for this tier, there is Wil Crowe, the big bodied righty who hasn't dominated the SEC the way some would have hoped this season. After sitting out what would have been his junior season due to Tommy John surgery last year, he is an older prospect, but there is a really intriguing package here. His sinking, low to mid 90's fastball sets up the rest of his full arsenal, with his curveball, slider, and changeup all grading out as above average. He got hit harder as the season wore on, meaning he may not be fully recovered from surgery, but if you can look past that as well as his age, you have a back-end starter here with a relatively high floor.
Tier III (J. Thompson, Gaddis, Howard, Lowther, K. Thompson)
Luke Heimlich would have ranked right at the front of this tier, but it recently came out in the news that he is a registered level one sex offender in Washington, as he sexually molested a six year old family member when he was fifteen years old. This has, naturally, severely damaged or even destroyed his draft stock, pushing him from a likely top 50 pick to one who may not be drafted at all. Heimlich is the best pitcher on the best team in college baseball, Oregon State, having gone 11-1 with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 128 batters in 118.1 innings over 16 starts. Anyways, let's move on to his teammate, Jake Thompson. Thompson, a redshirt junior who is already 22, has matched his teammate almost pitch for pitch, going 13-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP while striking out 106 batters in 110.2 innings, 24.9% in all. He is currently pitching against Vanderbilt in place of Heimlich as I write this, so those numbers will change. Thompson has taken a huge step forward this year, bumping his fastball into the mid 90's with a solid slider and usable changeup. The lack of a track record makes some scouts nervous to use a second round pick on him, but he'll fit nicely in the third round. Will Gaddis, Furman's ace, has a very high floor but a low ceiling. He has dominated the Southern Conference (1.89 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB) with a fairly ordinary arsenal, led by a sinking low 90's fastball and a solid changeup. His breaking pitches aren't quite as good, and he profiles like a smaller Wil Crowe. Spencer Howard, a former walk-on at Cal Poly, has dominated in his two years on campus and profiles well as a back-end starter with his full arsenal, coming with a higher ceiling than Gaddis but a lower floor due to a shorter track record and less advanced command. Like Gaddis and Howard, Zac Lowther has dominated at a mid-major school, putting up a 2.92 ERA, but more notably, a 35.9% strikeout rate for Xavier this season. He's not your typical strikeout artist, though, as his upper 80's fastball is the slowest on this list but plays up due to advanced command and running movement. Combine that with a decent arsenal overall, and he's a left handed Gaddis with less velocity. Lastly, Keegan Thompson is another 22 year old, but he has the best secondary stuff in Tier III with an excellent curveball and a good changeup. With his solid command and low 90's fastball, he has the highest floor in this tier, but Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the 2016 season.
2nd Tier: Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Seth Romero, Wil Crowe
3rd Tier: Jake Thompson, Will Gaddis, Spencer Howard, Zac Lowther, Keegan Thompson
Others: Charlie Barnes
Also in this category: Luke Heimlich
This isn't a particularly wide-ranging demographic, so we can focus a little more on each individual player. These guys won't be aces, starting pitchers of any sort are extremely valuable, and these guys are as safe a bet as any to become just that. They have proven track records and give you a much better idea of who they are. You may recognize two big wild cards on here in Romero and Heimlich, but if you focus on their on-field abilities, they fit in this profile.
Tier I (McKay, Faedo)
Brendan McKay the pitcher (not to be confused with his alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter) may have the highest floor in this whole draft. If drafted as a pitcher, he's a pretty safe bet to at least pitch effectively somewhere in a major league rotation. The lefty throws in the low to mid 90's early in games before tapering off as the game goes by, but he should be able to fix that if he focuses solely on pitching, and he still gets the job done when his fastball is sitting 88-89. He also has one of the best curveballs in the class, with big breaking action that generates plenty of swings and misses. Alex Faedo, who is three inches taller than McKay at 6'5" but throws right handed, has had erratic fastball velocity this spring after fall knee surgeries, but still fits well in this demographic. Before the surgeries, he could dial his fastball into the mid 90's regularly, though he sat in the low 90's at the beginning of the spring before bumping his velocity back up gradually. Like McKay's curveball, Faedo's slider profiles as among the best in the class, behind perhaps only that of J.B. Bukauskas. With a decent changeup, solid control, and a strong track record in the SEC, Faedo will almost certainly end up in an MLB rotation.
Tier II (Canning, Peterson, Romero, Crowe)
Two of these players have raised their profiles this spring, while two have hurt them. Griffin Canning was considered a possible first round pick but more likely a supplemental or second rounder, while David Peterson wasn't even in the first round conversation. With strong springs, both will likely be taken in the first 20 picks. Scouts have always loved Canning's advanced feel for pitching, but they wanted him to improve on his good-not-great Pac-12 numbers. That he did, dropping his ERA from 3.70 as a sophomore to 2.34 as a junior while bumping up his strikeout percentage from a solid 20.5% to an excellent 29.4%. Meanwhile, Peterson overhauled his mechanics, and the results were terrific. His 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio was one of the most eye-popping stats in college baseball this year, and it paired nicely with his 2.51 ERA. Both Canning and Peterson throw in the low 90's with full arsenals, and while Canning has a much better curveball, Peterson's slider tops Canning's. Canning also has the better changeup of the two. The left handed Peterson (6'6", 240 lbs) is much bigger than the right handed Canning (6'1", 170 lbs), though Canning has the advantage of being eight months younger. Both pitchers will likely come off the board somewhere in the 12-20 range, and any team that considers one will consider the other. Now, Seth Romero isn't really a safe bet at all when you consider his makeup issues, which ended up getting him booted from his college team this year, but the on-field profile is as safe a bet as any, save for McKay. As long as he keeps up with his conditioning (reportedly an issue during his time at the University of Houston), he can attack hitters with a power three pitch arsenal, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a plus slider that ranks behind only Bukauskas and Faedo in the college ranks, and an above average changeup. Coming from a durable, 6'3", left handed package, that's the stuff top ten picks are made of if they don't get themselves kicked off their teams. Lastly for this tier, there is Wil Crowe, the big bodied righty who hasn't dominated the SEC the way some would have hoped this season. After sitting out what would have been his junior season due to Tommy John surgery last year, he is an older prospect, but there is a really intriguing package here. His sinking, low to mid 90's fastball sets up the rest of his full arsenal, with his curveball, slider, and changeup all grading out as above average. He got hit harder as the season wore on, meaning he may not be fully recovered from surgery, but if you can look past that as well as his age, you have a back-end starter here with a relatively high floor.
Tier III (J. Thompson, Gaddis, Howard, Lowther, K. Thompson)
Luke Heimlich would have ranked right at the front of this tier, but it recently came out in the news that he is a registered level one sex offender in Washington, as he sexually molested a six year old family member when he was fifteen years old. This has, naturally, severely damaged or even destroyed his draft stock, pushing him from a likely top 50 pick to one who may not be drafted at all. Heimlich is the best pitcher on the best team in college baseball, Oregon State, having gone 11-1 with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 128 batters in 118.1 innings over 16 starts. Anyways, let's move on to his teammate, Jake Thompson. Thompson, a redshirt junior who is already 22, has matched his teammate almost pitch for pitch, going 13-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP while striking out 106 batters in 110.2 innings, 24.9% in all. He is currently pitching against Vanderbilt in place of Heimlich as I write this, so those numbers will change. Thompson has taken a huge step forward this year, bumping his fastball into the mid 90's with a solid slider and usable changeup. The lack of a track record makes some scouts nervous to use a second round pick on him, but he'll fit nicely in the third round. Will Gaddis, Furman's ace, has a very high floor but a low ceiling. He has dominated the Southern Conference (1.89 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB) with a fairly ordinary arsenal, led by a sinking low 90's fastball and a solid changeup. His breaking pitches aren't quite as good, and he profiles like a smaller Wil Crowe. Spencer Howard, a former walk-on at Cal Poly, has dominated in his two years on campus and profiles well as a back-end starter with his full arsenal, coming with a higher ceiling than Gaddis but a lower floor due to a shorter track record and less advanced command. Like Gaddis and Howard, Zac Lowther has dominated at a mid-major school, putting up a 2.92 ERA, but more notably, a 35.9% strikeout rate for Xavier this season. He's not your typical strikeout artist, though, as his upper 80's fastball is the slowest on this list but plays up due to advanced command and running movement. Combine that with a decent arsenal overall, and he's a left handed Gaddis with less velocity. Lastly, Keegan Thompson is another 22 year old, but he has the best secondary stuff in Tier III with an excellent curveball and a good changeup. With his solid command and low 90's fastball, he has the highest floor in this tier, but Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the 2016 season.
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