As usual, the Rays pulled together a very interesting class and I'm looking forward to seeing what they do with it. They used their first five picks on bats (all of whom are off to red-hot starts), in fact saving about $900,000 against the bonus pool in the process, then pivoted to arms with fourteen of their final sixteen picks including three that went well above the slot value. I like this strategy in general and especially for the Rays, who can get really creative with pitching and don't necessarily need to pop the most complete, high-floor candidate early in the draft. All of the pitchers here are a little different, each with their own unique traits, giving Tampa room to flex those creative muscles.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.
1-19: SS Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian {video}
Slot value: $3.88 million. Signing bonus: $3.88 million.
My rank: #10. MLB Pipeline: #15. Baseball America: #14. Prospects Live: #10.
The Rays usually like to draft outlier profiles with high upside, but I think Brayden Taylor and his more well-rounded profile kind of fell into their laps here and they just couldn't say no to arguably a top ten talent at #19. He hit the ground running at TCU and absolutely torched Big 12 pitching from the get go on his way to earning Big 12 Freshman of the Year honors in 2021. After another huge sophomore season, he entered the 2023 draft cycle a potential top ten pick, then immediately boosted his stock by posting loud exit velocities during a hot opening weekend at the College Baseball Showdown in Arlington. However, he slumped hard for the next month and a half, falling more towards the back of the first round range as his strikeout rate climbed, then reversed his fortunes again and caught fire in the second half of the season to reclaim his lost draft stock. So where does that leave us? Brayden Taylor is an extremely professional hitter with and exceptional approach at the plate, rarely ever expanding the zone and constantly putting himself in a position to hit drivable pitches. If there's any outlier trait there, it's that plate discipline. Otherwise, he has average bat to ball ability so it evens out to at least an above average hit tool, perhaps plus if the slump turns out to be more of an aberration than anything else. Taylor has a loose, whippy barrel through the zone, though he's not overly physical at 6'1" and for most of his career his top end exit velocities have been average. He began turning on the ball more this spring at the expense of his hit tool, though that power plays mostly to the pull side and he may never be an all-fields home run threat. Still, it's a very well rounded offensive profile overall. The Salt Lake City-area product is also a strong defender at third base, strong enough that the Rays drafted him as a shortstop despite spending most of his time in Fort Worth at the hot corner. With moderate speed but agile actions and a strong arm on the dirt, it's certainly worth a shot and would seriously elevate the profile if he can stick there. Overall, the floor is a high on-base third baseman with moderate, perhaps 15 home run power, which is a solid every day profile, but numerous developments could make him a star. If he proves he can handle shortstop, then the offensive profile looks that much better. If he can tack on some strength and start tapping more power outside of his wheelhouse, suddenly he could look like a left handed Anthony Rendon. Taylor is the rare high ceiling, high floor type. He's off to a hot start through five games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Charleston, slashing .333/.520/.722 with a home run and an even 7/7 strikeout to walk ratio.
CBA-31: SS Adrian Santana, Doral HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $2.67 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($667,650 below slot value).
My rank: #60. MLB Pipeline: #38. Baseball America: #39. Prospects Live: #31.
Tampa stayed in the Sunshine State for their competitive balance pick, grabbing shortstop Adrian Santana from the Doral Academy immediately west of Miami. Santana is a slick defender that will certainly stick at shortstop, with a combination of explosive speed and smooth actions rarely seen on the dirt. He effortlessly glides to his left and right, with an above average arm that plays up further due to his exceptional body control and ability to unleash accurate throws from multiple angles and when off balance. The glove is the selling point and earned him top 100 pick consideration, but he came out looking like a more pro-ready hitter this spring and that's what got the Rays' attention at pick #31. Previously a below average hitter with well below average power, he's added some physicality and now looks like he could get to 40 grade power in time, enough to flirt with double digit home runs annually. Santana is a switch hitter with loose, whippy swings that will be conducive to added strength as he gets there, and he makes his fair share of contact though he can get beat by higher velocity. He's very young for the class, only turning 18 after the draft, which gives him further time to develop physically and hopefully hit enough to play every day. If not, the floor is as a light hitting utility infielder, which is higher than most high schoolers. He had been committed to Miami but signed a well below slot deal, taking roughly the slot value for the 43rd overall pick at #31. Santana has taken well to the Florida Complex League, slashing .316/.435/.368 with an even 3/3 strikeout to walk ratio through five games.
2-55: OF Colton Ledbetter, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $1.51 million. Signing bonus: $1.3 million ($209,800 below slot value).
My rank: #36. MLB Pipeline: #49. Baseball America: #47. Prospects Live: #39.
The Rays came through with another excellent pick in the second round, grabbing one of the better all-around bats in the SEC. Colton Ledbetter began his career close to home at Samford, then transferred to Mississippi State as a junior and put up a huge season, slashing .320/.452/.574 with 12 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 36/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. Despite making the jump from SoCon to SEC pitching, he showed off an extremely patient, disciplined approach and ran very low chase rates with high contact rates, walking close to 20% of the time. At the same time, he's an explosive hitter whose swing is conducive to elevating the ball with authority, which will help him make the most of his average raw power and help it play up to above average in games. The end result could be a 20+ home run bat with high on-base percentages, on its own a nice find in the second round as an under slot selection. Beyond that, he's a heady baserunner whose average speed plays up due to his instincts, and those instincts also give him a shot to stick in center as a pro. He may be forced to left field by a more rangy defender, but he would be above average there in left and help relieve some of the pressure that position puts on the bat. Ledbetter does a lot well and the Rays seem like just the team to maximize his skillset on the field. Like the names before him in this Rays class, he's off to a hot start to his pro career, slashing .381/.500/.571 with a home run and a strong 2/5 strikeout to walk ratio through six games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Charleston.
3-88: 1B Tre' Morgan, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $783,800. Signing bonus: $781,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #120. MLB Pipeline: #137. Baseball America: #76. Prospects Live: #69.
Tre' Morgan is one of the more unique players in the draft, and he makes for a fun profile that fits right into the Rays' slightly off-kilter preferences. He's a three year performer at LSU and a career .332 hitter, including a 2023 in which he slashed .316/.418/.502 with a career-high nine home runs and a 33/35 strikeout to walk ratio 69 games for the National Champs. Utilizing a short, contact-oriented left handed swing, he throws the barrel at the ball with exceptional accuracy that helps him get to baseballs all over and outside the zone. You could even call him a bad ball hitter. Those elite bat to ball skills have helped him strike out just 10.9% of the time over three years against elite pitching in the SEC, including just a 10.0% flat rate in 2023 despite a very aggressive approach. Morgan is more than willing to expand the zone because he knows he can still do damage on pitches in the shadow zone, which in turn cuts into his walk rate (though his 10.6% rate in 2023 was a career high). He's also been hit by 47 pitches in his college career, which helps boost the OBP a little extra. Morgan's tendency to chase and focus more on contact has left him with fringy game power, as he rarely elevates and/or turns on the ball. However, with a 90th percentile exit velocity over 104, he may have average raw power in the tank if he decides to lay off a few more bad balls and turn on the ones he likes. The Rays will probably go that route with his development to create a little more impact and move away from the peppery approach he employs now. The hand-eye coordination is certainly there to make it work, and he could club 15-20 home runs a year with solid, batting average-driven on-base percentages at peak. The New Orleans' native is also one of the best defenders you'll ever see at first base, with superior range, footwork, and instincts to his peers at that position. He glides around the bag like a rangy third baseman, effectively going back on tough, spinning popups and making plays in the 3-4 hole that typically get through. The arm is probably no better than average, but his body control and instincts make it play up and he can catch runners sleeping from across the diamond. There aren't a lot of comps for players with his profile, with perhaps the first that comes to mind being 2017 Mariners first round pick Evan White, who never quite established himself in the majors. He's yet another Ray off to a hot start, slashing .389/.522/.611 with a home run and just one strikeout to five walks through five games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Charleston.
4-120: SS Hunter Haas, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $552,500. Signing bonus: $534,000 ($18,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #188. Baseball America: #340. Prospects Live: #235.
Hunter Haas hit .304 as a true freshman at Arizona State, but didn't get much playing time as a sophomore and transferred to Texas A&M for the 2023 season, where he slashed .323/.447/.506 with ten home runs and a 39/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. He's a hit tool-driven player with a very strong approach at the plate that helps him focus on pitches he can do damage on while drawing a ton of walks when he doesn't get one. It's a clean, line drive swing that helps him utilize the whole field effectively, and together he should continue to get on base in pro ball. The power is a bit behind, as he can turn on the ball when he needs to for some pull side power but may lack the overall impact to provide significant home run power with wood bats. He hit just .211/.296/.284 on the Cape with five extra base hits in 34 games, so overall, the hit tool will have to carry the profile. The Phoenix native is a solid defender with average but playable tools at shortstop, which will make him a true utility glove in his most likely role. If he can tap a little more power in pro ball, perhaps he could work his way into an every day role near the bottom of the lineup. He's slashing .308/.471/.692 with one home run and a 2/4 strikeout to walk ratio over four games in the Florida Complex League so far.
5-156: RHP Trevor Harrison, J.W. Mitchell HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $388,900. Signing bonus: $847,500 ($458,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #245. Baseball America: #351. Prospects Live: unranked.
Having built up about $900,000 in savings to this point, the rays used about half of it here to lure Trevor Harrison away from a Florida State commitment for money close to the slot value at #83 overall, a third round valuation. Harrison is a local kid, having pitched alongside Phillies first rounder Aidan Miller at J.W. Mitchell High School in the suburb of Trinity, about thirty miles straight north from Tropicana Field in southern Pasco County. He was a pop-up arm this spring after he added considerable velocity, sitting in the low to mid 90's with running action to avoid barrels. His slider gets nice depth when he gets it right, while his changeup has sneaky fade, again when he releases it right. The secondary stuff can be inconsistent at this point but the Rays love the upside he's shown with those pitches, and overall they'll look to help him attain more consistency in that regard. The 6'4" righty is already physical but still growing into his body in terms of coordination and mechanics, so he does have a bit of trouble repeating his delivery and can yank his release point with head whack at times. Still, it's a strong, projectable frame with a whippy arm that could really explode in an organization like Tampa that really knows what it's doing. He's extremely young for the class, not turning 18 until almost a month after the draft and well over a year younger than his teammate Miller, which helps add even more to his upside. Rays fans should be patient with this one but he has impact starter potential.
6-183: RHP TJ Nichols, Arizona {video}
Slot value: $307,300. Signing bonus: $304,800 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #161. MLB Pipeline: #239. Baseball America: #157. Prospects Live: #169.
TJ Nichols has a long history with scouts, having been a top five-rounds prospect out of high school in 2020 before reaching Arizona after the shortened draft. He flashed huge upside as an immediate contributor on that Wildcat pitching staff during his freshman season, but has never really progressed from there. He posted a career-worst 8.27 ERA in 2023 alongside a 52/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 57.2 innings, but there is reason to believe the upside is still there. Nichols runs his fastball into the upper 90's and holds mid 90's velocity throughout his starts, but it's fairly straight and gets hit. He shows an inconsistent slider that flashes above average with short, tight action, while his changeup looks like a usable pitch in pro ball as well. The Sacramento-area native hides the ball fairly well with a short arm delivery, but still doesn't miss as many bats as he should due to his straight fastball and lack of a true putaway offspeed pitch. His command has also been inconsistent, as he has never found a way to consistently repeat his release point and walked over 10% of his opponents in 2023. That said, there are many reasons for optimism. The 6'5" righty is still extremely projectable and with a June birthday, he's young for a college junior. You also cannot teach the kind of arm strength he possesses, regardless of how it manifests into stuff that moves and misses bats. The Rays are great at teaching that second part. Nichols may never be a starter (you never know though), but his fastball/slider could play up in relief especially if Tampa finds a way to add some hop to the fastball. In his first game in the Florida Complex League, he tossed a hitless inning while walking one and striking out one.
7-213: RHP Owen Wild, Gonzaga {video}
Slot value: $240,600. Signing bonus: $238,100 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #231. Baseball America: #300. Prospects Live: #344.
I was interested in Owen Wild as a prospect entering the 2023 season, but he didn't quite take that step forward and I was hoping for and I never got back around to him and didn't rank him. Still, there's a lot to like in this profile. After barely pitching as a freshman, he showed extremely well as a sophomore in a loaded Gonzaga pitching staff that included three top-three round picks in Gabriel Hughes, Trystan Vrieling, and William Kempner, and continued to show well over the summer in the Alaska League. He plateaued in 2023, posting a 4.93 ERA and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 innings, bringing us to where we are now. Wild sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 95 at best with flat plane and carry that helps it play above its velocity. He adds a deep, slurvy slider as well as a harder cutter, though both need to be tightened up if he wants to use them in pro ball. At this point, his best pitch may be an above average changeup with great fading action away from left handed hitters, and overall he has the potential for a very solid three or four pitch mix. It would be nice to see him add a tick of velocity to his fastball and power to his slider and cutter, which would really elevate his profile given everything else he has going for him. The 6'2" righty is already very physical and a pro conditioning program should do him very well, perhaps most importantly in that velocity department. Despite his last name, Wild's command is actually pretty solid and he repeats his delivery well despite some stabbing and curling action in the back of his arm action, and he effectively uses his lower half to drive down the mound. I think the Rays can unlock a back-end starter profile here.
8-243: LHP Drew Dowd, Stanford {video}
Slot value: $195,800. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($201,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #498. Prospects Live: #363.
Drew Dowd has spent three years in a swingman role for Stanford and now comes to the Rays with the chance to be a solid lefty reliever or back-end starter, signing for fifth round money here in the eighth round. Dowd had a solid season in 2023, posting a 4.52 ERA and an 88/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.2 innings, including a couple of hitless outings against Wake Forest and Tennessee in the College World Series. As a starter, he sits around 90 with his fastball and touches 92, but he can get up to 95 as a reliever. His primary offspeed pitch is a big, deep curveball that dives across the plate, while his changeup gives him a solid, usable third pitch should he work out as a starter for Tampa. He's physically maxed out at 6'2" but hides the ball well with average command and good feel for his offspeed stuff, giving the Rays a good baseline to work with. If he stays in the bullpen, he could move somewhat quickly.
10-303: RHP Adam Boucher, Duke {video}
Slot value: $166,500. Signing bonus: $148,500 ($18,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #352. Prospects Live: #186.
This is a nice find at the end of day two that could turn into an impact reliever. Adam Boucher never fully put it together in three years at Duke, but the upside is there. In 2023, he posted a 4.95 ERA and a 59/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, mostly out of the bullpen. Boucher has explosive stuff highlighted by a mid 90's fastball that can touch 98 in relief, coming in with big riding life to boot. It's easily the best now-fastball in the draft for Tampa's class. He also adds a hard cutter/slider that looks above average at its best, though it can be inconsistent, and he doesn't have much feel for his changeup at this point. The 6'5" righty is plenty physical but does battle command issues, as he leans towards third base in his delivery and doesn't always get back on line when he straightens out while throwing with high effort. That makes this almost certainly a relief profile, but his fastball/slider combination could really play in short stints once the Rays clean him up a little bit. He worked around a single and a walk in his first outing in the Florida Complex League, striking out the other three batters he faced in his one inning.
11-333: RHP Garrett Edwards, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $499,850 ($349,850 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #412. Prospects Live: #366.
The Rays had bonus pool money left to spend after two days of drafting, so they gave most of the rest of it to Garrett Edwards in the eleventh round with a signing bonus par for the late fourth round. Edwards is a tough one to figure out because he's thrown just 68.1 innings in his three year college career, including just 31.1 innings over the past two seasons, and he won't pitch much in 2024 because he's recovering from Tommy John surgery. Before the surgery in 2023, he was off to his best season yet with a 1.93 ERA and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings, and the Rays are all in on what they saw in those ten relief appearances. It's a mid 90's fastball that gets up to 97 at best with running action to keep it off barrels, while his power slider has late sweeping action. He can work that slider into more of a cutter, and while he doesn't use it as much, there's a changeup in there as well. Edwards hides the ball well with very short arm action, and even though there's some violence in the delivery once he breaks towards the plate, he has pounded the strike zone at LSU and projects for average command. Despite making just three starts in his Tigers career and none in 2023, there's a chance the Rays could work him into longer outings if he can stay healthy. The Pitkin, Louisiana native stands 6'5" with a physical, filled out frame, and he has the arsenal and command to pull off a starting pitching assignment. Given the amount of money Tampa threw his way, they seem to think the same.
14-423: LHP TJ Fondtain, San Diego State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #419. Prospects Live: #478.
This is an interesting pick for Tampa. TJ Fondtain barely played during his first two seasons at San Diego State, but has grown into one of the best two-way players on the West Coast as an upperclassman over the past two seasons. He's a career .287/.364/.515 hitter with eleven home runs over 95 games, but the Rays are taking him as a pitcher, where he had a 2.80 ERA and a 93/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings this past spring including a complete game, fourteen strikeout no-hitter against Nevada. Fondtain does not throw all that hard, sitting around 90 and touching 93 with his fastball, but he gets nice plane and carry on the pitch that helps it play above its velocity. His offspeed stuff is fringy and he doesn't even use it all that much, typically pitching off the fastball. Though the stuff isn't loud, the clay is very interesting. Fondtain has a still-projectable 6'5" frame and great athleticism that enabled his impact as a two-way guy for the Aztecs. He repeats his delivery well and controls the strike zone with above average command, additionally creating some deception by hiding the ball well and leaning back over his heels in his drive towards the plate. The Rays are one of the most creative organizations in the country when it comes to developing talent and they could help the Fresno-area native put the building blocks together into a back-end starting profile.
