Even with the graduations of the trio of players' sons of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio, the Jays still have more on the way in Kacy (Roger's son) Clemens and Griffin (Jeff's son) Conine. More importantly, even after those graduations, they retain one of the very best systems in the game. They have a ton of depth virtually everywhere, as well as the big names you love to see at the top of a system. Nate Pearson is one of the top couple of pitching prospects in the game, and behind him there's a lot of high ceiling talent in hitters like Jordan Groshans, Conine, Orelvis Martinez, and Miguel Hiraldo and pitchers like Eric Pardinho, Simeon Woods Richardson, Alek Manoah, Adam Kloffenstein, and Kendall Williams. The Jays seem to love ground ball pitchers with good command, and they've certainly found the right ones given the current state of this system.
Affiliates: AAA Buffalo Bisons, AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats, High A Dunedin Blue Jays, Class A Lansing Lugnuts, short season Vancouver Canadians, rookie level Bluefield Blue Jays, complex level GCL and DSL Blue Jays
Catcher
- Reese McGuire (2020 Age: 25): Danny Jansen rightfully earned the role as the Blue Jays starting catcher going forward, at least for now, though Reese McGuire has been hitting just enough to stay in the picture as his long-term backup. A former first round pick out of a Seattle-area high school way back in 2013, the same first round that produced veterans Kris Bryant, Jon Gray, and Tim Anderson, McGuire originally went to the Pirates before coming over to Toronto in the Drew Hutchison/Francisco Liriano deal in 2016. In 2019, McGuire hit an underwhelming .247/.316/.366 with five home runs and a 44/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 72 games at AAA Buffalo, but through two short major league seasons, he's hitting a great .297/.343/.539 with seven home runs in 44 games. While he definitely won't be that kind of hitter over longer sample sizes, the strong performances show that his bat is major league ready and that his strong plate discipline will play up in the majors. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he should get on base enough given that he has a very strong glove, which takes a ton of pressure off his bat. He'll still have to hit because the Blue Jays have quite a few talented young catchers coming up through the minors, but at least for now, he and Jansen profile well together behind the dish.
- Riley Adams (2020 Age: 23-24): In most systems, Adams would stand out as a power hitting catcher with a solid glove, but this system is so deep behind the plate that he's probably a backup in the long term. In 2019, the former 2017 third round pick out of San Diego slashed .261/.366/.443 with 14 home runs and a 123/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at High A Dunedin and AA New Hampshire, representing a massive improvement over the .246/.352/.361 line he put up in 2018. Adams has always been a patient hitter, but in 2019 he finally started to tap the power in his 6'4" frame consistently, and he now projects for 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages. He's not a Gold Glover behind the plate, but he's fully competent back there and gets the job done, so his overall profile shows a well-rounded game with no true strengths but no true weaknesses either. If he can build off his offensive success in 2019, he could find himself as a backup catcher in Toronto soon.
- Alejandro Kirk (2020 Age: 21): Kirk was an unheralded prospect signing out of Tijuana, Mexico in 2016, and since hurting his hand in a car accident in 2017, he's hit his way straight into the middle of prospect lists. After hitting .354/.443/.558 in rookie ball in 2018, he continued the hot hitting into 2019 by slashing .290/.403/.465 with seven home runs and an excellent 39/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin. He has an excellent understanding of the strike zone and rarely swings and misses, which enables him to find the barrel more often than not and hit for a lot of impact despite his stocky 5'9" stature. It bodes extremely well for his ability to keep hitting as he's promoted to the upper minors and eventually the majors, and he could post .350+ on-base percentages at the major league level. How much power he will hit for is uncertain, but because he finds that barrel so easily, whatever power he has will play up. Defensively, it's a bit of a different story for Kirk, as he can't match the gloves of the other names on this list. In some systems, he might be able to work his way into a starting catching spot anyways, but with all the catchers in this system, he might be forced over to DH since he's too short for first base and too slow for the outfield. You know what they say, though, if you can hit, they'll find a spot for you.
- Gabriel Moreno (2020 Age: 20): Moreno has a fairly similar profile to Kirk. Also an unheralded prospect who signed for just $25,000 out of Venezuela in the same 2016 signing class, he demolished complex and rookie ball in 2018 (.359/.395/.575) and was teammates for some time with Kirk in both 2018 and 2019. Moreno, who is more than a year younger, slashed .280/.337/.485 with 12 home runs and a 38/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 games at Class A Lansing in 2019. He doesn't walk quite as much as Kirk, but he's equally difficult to strike out and that excellent feel for the barrel enables his below average raw power to play up to average in games. Standing 5'11", he's skinnier than Kirk but does do a good job of channeling his strength into his swing, and he could eventually hit 15 home runs a year in the majors. Defensively, he's also a work in progress, but he's younger and does grade out a bit better than Kirk back there, giving him a better chance to stick as a catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Hagen Danner, Philip Clarke, Ryan Sloniger, Javier D'Orazio
Corner Infield
- Jordan Groshans (2020 Age: 20): Groshans went in the first round out of high school just outside Houston in 2018, and he was raking at Class A Lansing with a .337/.427/.482 line, two home runs, and a 21/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games when a foot injury ended his 2019 season in May. At 6'3", he has above average power as well as very good feel for the barrel, but his swing is currently more geared for line drives and he'll probably need to add some loft in order to fully tap that power. He brings a strong approach at the plate and has hit everywhere he's gone, so I wouldn't be too worried about it, it's just an adjustment he needs to make. Defensively, he's athletic and has played shortstop for now, though he probably won't stick at the position and profiles as an above average defender at third base. Overall, it's a favorable outlook as a guy who can hit 20-25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages if everything breaks right, though obviously that profile comes with significant risk since he's just 71 games into his pro career.
- Miguel Hiraldo (2020 Age: 19): As with Groshans, it's not completely clear where Hiraldo will end up defensively, as he's played mostly shortstop in his minor league career but probably won't stick there, with third base being the best fit but second base looking potentially more viable given the presence of Groshans, a superior defender. There isn't much question about his bat, though, as he slashed .299/.346/.485 with seven home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 36/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games in 2019, mostly at rookie level Bluefield. He's extraordinarily talented with explosive athleticism that plays on both sides of the ball, even at 5'11", though like most teenagers, he's still learning the overall nuances of the game. That explosive swing could produce well above average power down the line, and while he hasn't been much of a strikeout risk yet, how much he taps that power will likely come down to how consistently he can find the barrel against more advanced pitching. It's hard to project him in any kind of concrete way just yet, as he's set to play all of 2020 at 19 years old, but it's an exciting profile for the Blue Jays to build off of. It will also be interesting to see where in the infield he ends up.
- Johnny Aiello (2020 Age: 23): Aiello was a well-regarded high school prospect coming out of the Philadelphia area in 2015, but he chose to attend school and a strong sophomore year at Wake Forest bumped up his stock. However, he slumped as a junior and fell to the Blue Jays in the 14th round in 2018, and in 2019 he slashed .258/.352/.419 with eight home runs and a 96/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 games at Class A Lansing. Aiello's calling card is his power, which helped him hit 26 extra base hits in those 77 games, but his big weakness is swing and miss, with those 96 strikeouts in the same timeframe. The key for Aiello going forward will obviously be cutting down on those strikeouts, which in turn will help him tap even more power and potentially become a platoon/bench bat down the road.
- Keep an eye on: Cullen Large, Yorman Rodriguez, Spencer Horwitz
Middle Infield
- Kevin Smith (2020 Age: 23-24): Smith, a fourth round pick out of Maryland in 2017, is one of the more interesting hitters in the system. He hit well in the elite Cape Cod League in college but put up just a .323 on-base percentage as a junior at Maryland, then has hit consistently worse as he's been promoted. He broke out to hit an incredible .355/.407/.639 in Class A in 2018, but that dropped to .274/.332/.468 after a promotion to High A that same year. In 2019, up at AA, he hit just .209/.263/.402 with 19 home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 151/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games for New Hampshire, and he's more or less the same hitter he was a year ago. Smith generates a lot of power from his 5'11" frame, and he's gotten to it consistently throughout his amateur and pro careers despite all the problems he's had with swing and miss. When he hits it, he hits it hard, and he'll probably continue to hit for power in the majors. Given how much he's struggled to control the zone, though, he might not ever post high enough on-base percentages to start, with a right handed Kelly Johnson or Danny Espinosa being good comps. In addition to his power, his defense will get him to the majors, as he's strong at shortstop and can handle any position in the infield.
- Otto Lopez (2020 Age: 21): Lopez gotten better and better since being an under the radar signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2016, and in 2019 he slashed .324/.371/.425 with five home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 63/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at Class A Lansing. He employs a short, direct swing that helps him keep his strikeout rate extremely low, and as he fills out he should continue to get stronger and drive more extra base hits. He probably won't ever be a power threat, though he could threaten for double digit home runs if he fills out a little more and starts to lift the ball, but he could post high on-base percentages as more of a contact/line drive hitter. The projection here is that of a future utility infielder, though he's a sleeper who could turn into more if he does tap some of that power. Though he was signed out of the Dominican, he actually grew up in Montreal as a Dominican-Canadian, giving the Jays a hometown prospect.
- Tanner Morris (2020 Age: 22): Morris went in the fifth round out of UVA in 2019, then hit .246/.384/.346 with two home runs and a 56/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at short season Vancouver. He stands out for his ability to control the zone and make consistent contact, which has enabled him to hit everywhere he's gone. However, Morris is more of a slap hitter who doesn't drive the ball with a ton of authority, so in order to stay relevant in this system, he'll have to develop at least more doubles power if not more home run power. A decent defender in the infield, he's more of a second baseman, which overall doesn't really help or hurt his profile. If he can hit with more authority, he could be a utility infielder down the road, and he does come with a very high floor just because of that barrel control and eye for the zone.
- Leonardo Jimenez (2020 Age: 18-19): Jimenez is just 18 years old, but he's turned out to be a very advanced hitter and he slashed .294/.372/.371 with a 44/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, mostly at rookie level Bluefield. While he can spray line drives around the field, he doesn't hit for a ton of impact yet at the plate, instead relying for now on his great feel for hitting in general. The hope is that he can grow into more strength and start to be an extra base threat, though he'll probably never hit more than 5-10 home runs per season. He's a strong defender that should be able to stick at shortstop, adding to his profile, and he has a very good chance to be up in High A as a teenager.
- Orelvis Martinez (2020 Age: 18): Signed for $3.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, Martinez skipped the Dominican Summer League entirely and began his pro career in the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2019, slashing .275/.352/.549 with seven home runs and a 29/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. A truly explosive hitter, Martinez has arguably the highest upside of any position player in the system, and he showed that by cracking 20 extra base hits in 40 games at just 17 years old in 2019. He generates a ton of raw power from the right side and got to it consistently, and he kept his strikeouts down as well despite his age and big swing. He generates natural loft and leverage in his swing, though going forward, he'll need to refine his approach significantly. Since he's set to play all of 2020 at just 18 years old, that's a non-issue at this point. Defensively, he has a good shot to stick at shortstop and would be above average if he moved to third, and overall he comes with high risk but All Star upside.
- Keep an eye on: Logan Warmoth, Samad Taylor, Kevin Vicuna, Nick Podkul, LJ Talley
Outfield
- Anthony Alford (2020 Age: 25-26): Yes, Alford somehow still retains his rookie status, despite appearing in the majors in three different seasons (which, by the way, makes him the longest tenured active Blue Jay). A third round pick out of a Mississippi high school way back in 2012, a draft in which Marcus Stroman was a Blue Jays' first round pick, Alford hit .264/.348/.434 with eight home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 95/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 games between AAA Buffalo and complex level rehab in 2019, and in three major league seasons he's hit .145/.203/.218 with a home run in 33 games. A former college football player at both Southern Miss and Ole Miss, Alford's athleticism clearly shows on the field, mostly in his great speed that has enabled him to steal 114 bases in his minor league career. The Jays were hoping that he'd eventually tap some power in his 6'1" frame, though that never quite came and he's more of a doubles and triples hitter than a home run hitter. With a fringy hit tool, he's probably more of a fourth outfielder than a starter, where he should have a decent all-around offensive game. He also has good range in center field, but his fringy arm limits his overall value there. Regardless, I'm not writing about him again next year even if he's still somehow a prospect, and this is probably the make it or break it season for the 25 year old.
- Griffin Conine (2020 Age: 22-23): Conine rode an up and down career at Duke to a second round selection in 2018, but he was suspended for 50 games to start 2019 due to a positive test for Ritalin. Once he returned, he raked against modest competition, slashing .283/.371/.576 with 22 home runs and a 125/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 games at Class A Lansing, which are great numbers that really show his profile well. Conine has a lot of raw power from the left side, using an explosive left handed swing and a 6'1" frame to generate a lot of power that he has gotten to consistently against advanced pitching. However, he also has a lot of swing and miss in his game, especially when he really tries to yank one, and a 35.9% strikeout rate as a 21-22 year old in Class A is a bit worrisome. Perhaps some of that can be chalked up to the late start, but he is going to have to lock down the strike zone at least a little bit going forward once he starts to face more advanced pitching. Conine's power comes naturally, so he'll probably never have any trouble tapping it, it's just a matter of what else he can do aside from hit home runs. With his strong arm, he profiles well in right field.
- Ryan Noda (2020 Age: 24): Noda was a 15th round pick out of Cincinnati in 2017, and he's added a new dimension to his game in pro ball, patience at the plate. He led all of Minor League Baseball with 109 walks in 2018, then in 2019 he slashed .238/.372/.418 with 13 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 138/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at High A Dunedin. He has a strong swing from the left side that enables him to generate a lot of power, and he's a ridiculously patient hitter that will make you throw him his pitch and will take walks all day. He also strikes out a lot because he's frequently in deep counts, which limits his batting average, so he's a three true outcome hitter. Noda probably won't ever make enough contact to start every day in the majors, but he has a chance to be a bench bat/platoon hitter that hits right handed pitching well.
- Will Robertson (2020 Age: 22): Robertson, a fourth round pick out of Creighton in 2019, has a fairly similar profile to Griffin Conine, and he slashed .268/.365/.404 with six home runs and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games at short season Vancouver in his pro debut. Like Conine, he excelled against elite competition in the Cape Cod League in college but had an up and down career at school, and he comes from the left side with a lot of power as well as questions as to how much he'll get to it. The profile isn't quite as extreme, as he has a bit less raw power as well as the ability to control the zone a bit better, though he's also a bit worse in the field. In all, I like Conine better as a prospect, but I think this was a really nice pickup in the fourth round as someone who could potentially hit 20-25 home runs in the majors with decent on-base percentages, and a good shot at being a bench/platoon bat.
- Dasan Brown (2020 Age: 18): Brown was the Blue Jays' third round pick in 2019, and as fate would have it, he grew up a Jays fan in the Toronto suburb of Oakville about 20 miles southwest of Rogers Centre. He spent his pro debut in the complex level Gulf Coast League, slashing .222/.444/.356 with six stolen bases and a 17/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games. Brown, who was young for a high school senior and who will spend the entire 2020 season at just 18 years old, was drafted for his speed and projectability, as he's very raw as a player right now. He employs a choppy swing that keeps him from hitting for a ton of impact, so the Blue Jays will need to overhaul his mechanics, but he packs a lot of strength into his lean frame and could end up with plenty of gap power. Defensively, his plus speed helps him show great range in the outfield, so he'll definitely be able to stick in center. Patience will be key in developing Brown, but the Blue Jays are hoping to unlock a truly homegrown leadoff hitter.
- Keep an eye on: Forrest Wall, Josh Palacios, Chavez Young, Demi Orimoloye, Eric Rivera, Justin Ammons
Starting Pitching
- Nate Pearson (2020 Age: 23): There has never, ever been any question about Pearson's arm strength, which has consistently pushed his fastball upwards of 100 MPH, but before 2019, we just hadn't been able to see much of him. A late first round pick out of the Florida JuCo ranks in 2017, he was hit by a comebacker in his first start in 2018 and missed the rest of the regular season recovering, so heading into this year we'd seen him for just 21.2 pro innings. That changed in 2019, when he put up a 2.30 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 119/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings at High A Dunedin, AA New Hampshire, and AAA Buffalo, and now he's just about ready to contribute to the major league rotation in a big way. More of a raw arm heading into his draft year, he began to refine his all around game that year and that trend has continued into pro ball, despite the injury. He now sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 104 in short stints, and he adds a slider, a curve, and a changeup. His secondaries stand out mostly for their velocity, though his upper 80's slider (which can touch 91) does have some short, hard bite and his mid 80's curveball gets nice, late downer action. Additionally, he can actually command his stuff decently well for a 6'6" power arm, giving him all the ingredients to not just be an impact starter, but a true ace. So long as he can keep his command together in the bigs, Pearson should be able to reach that ceiling and he's one of the top arms in all of minor league baseball.
- Anthony Kay (2020 Age: 25): Kay was a Mets compensation pick out of UConn in 2016, but good old Tommy John shut down his 2017 season before he made a successful comeback in 2018. Midway through 2019, he was shipped to Toronto in the Marcus Stroman deal, and between the two organizations he posted a 2.96 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 135/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.2 innings at AA and AAA, also putting up a 5.79 ERA and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 14 major league innings. He's a well rounded pitcher that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and who adds a good curveball and changeup, and while his command isn't pinpoint, he does a good enough job throwing strikes and has proven durable since the surgery. It's a classic mid rotation starter profile, one who can eat innings and pitch effectively, but one that probably falls short of any top of the rotation projections. Having already pitched a few major league games in September, he has a chance to work his way into the back of that Toronto rotation out of spring training, and he should get an extended look at some point this season regardless.
- T.J. Zeuch (2020 Age: 24-25): Picked ten selections ahead of Kay in the first round of the 2016 draft out of Pittsburgh, Zeuch has proven to be a solid if unspectacular arm. In 2019, he had a 3.74 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 51/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings at High A Dunedin and AAA Buffalo, then put up a 4.76 ERA and a 20/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 22.2 major league innings in September. A 6'7" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball, he's much more of the pitch to contact type than the strikeout type, inducing a ton of ground balls with a combination of the natural downward plane he creates and the sink on his fastball. He's got a good curve that he can use off his fastball, though the rest of his arsenal is fairly fringy and is why he doesn't usually finish off strikeouts. With his solid strike throwing ability, he could very well be a #4 starter in the near future, though there are a lot of guys competing for spots and he may not get that opportunity straight out of spring training. I do see significant bullpen risk, but he could be a very effective sinker/slider guy in that role.
- Joey Murray (2020 Age: 23): Murray is an interesting one. An eighth round pick out of Kent State in 2018, his entire game is fairly fringy across the board but he's just gone out and dominated hitters everywhere he's gone. After a standout career at Kent State followed a 1.75 ERA in his pro debut in 2018, he came back in 2019 and posted a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 169/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.1 innings at Class A Lansing, High A Dunedin, and AA New Hampshire. He doesn't have anything that really stands out about his game, but nobody can seem to hit the 6'2" righty. He sits around 90 with his fastball, adds a full set of offspeed pitches that look decent and have some nice movement at times, and throws strikes in general but shouldn't be called a control artist by any means. I think what it might be is his arm path, as he gets great extension and appears to hold onto the ball for a split second longer than hitters expect, causing them to be off balance when he does release it. He doesn't look like much of a prospect when you watch his bullpen sessions, but you don't pay pitchers to stand out on paper, you pay them to get outs, and Joey Murray gets a lot of them.
- Patrick Murphy (2020 Age: 24-25): Murphy, a third round pick out of a Phoenix-area high school way back in 2013, in the same draft as Reese McGuire, dealt with a lot of injuries early on threw just four innings from 2013-2015, including high school. Finally healthy in 2016, he began to build himself up with 90.2 innings, then threw 106.2 in 2017 and 152.2 in 2018. However, nagging injuries limited him a bit in 2019, and he finished with a 4.71 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an 86/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 innings at AA New Hampshire. His power arm helps him sit in the mid 90's with his fastball, and he spins a really good curveball that can flash plus, two plane break when he stays on top of it. The rest of his game is fairly fringy, leading to significant bullpen risk, but he's a starter for now and does have the chance to stick there. If he can refine either his changeup or his command a bit more, he could be a #4 starter, though that fastball/curveball combination would play well out of the bullpen.
- Yennsy Diaz (2020 Age: 23): Diaz is another guy where we're not quite sure if he'll be a starter or a reliever, and his overall profile is pretty similar to Murphy's. Originally signed for $1.6 million out of the Dominican Republic back in 2014, he posted a 3.74 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 116/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 144.1 innings at AA New Hampshire this year then struggled to find the zone in his lone MLB relief appearance. Diaz is a 6'1" righty that, like Murphy, works in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball, though also like Murphy, the rest of his game remains fringy. Diaz is a bit younger and has now topped 140 innings in back to back seasons, probably giving him a bit better of a chance to stick in the rotation, though I like Murphy's breaking ball better and in general think he's the better prospect. They'll both battle to claim a #4 or #5 starter's spot in the next year or two.
- Thomas Hatch (2020 Age: 25): Hatch was a Cubs third rounder in 2016 out of Oklahoma State, then he came over to the Blue Jays in the David Phelps deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he posted a 4.12 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 127/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.1 innings in AA, and he kicked it into another gear with a set of really strong starts at the end of the season in the Jays organization. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball, and adds solid offspeed stuff, but his command has been improving steadily and now might be a tick above average, whereas a year ago it was a probably below. That will help his decent arsenal play up, and it gives him a newfound chance to crack it as a #4 or a #5 starter in the near-ish future.
- Simeon Woods Richardson (2020 Age: 19): Younger than the typical high school senior, Woods Richardson was up and down as a Houston-area high schooler and landed with the Mets in the second round in 2018, then came over to the Blue Jays in the Marcus Stroman deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he posted a 3.80 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 126/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings at Class A and High A, actually looking better at the higher level after the trade. Woods Richardson is looking more like the pitcher he was when he was at his best in high school, now sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adding a hard curveball with late tumbling action as well as a changeup. He also showed surprisingly advanced command in 2019, making him a really complete pitcher for a teenager who was supposed to be raw coming in. His ceiling is perhaps as high as any arm in this system not belonging to Nate Pearson, as he has plenty of time to further refine his game and work towards his top of the rotation potential. Watch him.
- Alek Manoah (2020 Age: 22): Manoah rode a huge junior year at West Virginia to becoming a first round selection in 2019, then he posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings at short season Vancouver in his pro debut. He's actually not too dissimilar to where Nate Pearson was a couple years ago, so the fit makes sense for the Blue Jays. Manoah is a 6'6", 260 pound beast with one of the strongest arms in the system. His fastball sits in the mid 90's, and he took steps forward with both his slider and his changeup as a junior in 2019. The slider is now a safely above average weapon, and the changeup is a very useable pitch, so the key going forward will be further refining those pitches. His command has taken a step forward as well and is now solid-average. There's still significant refinement needed compared to other first round college arms, but he's not the velocity-only guy he was at the start of his junior season and he has #2 starter upside.
- Eric Pardinho (2020 Age: 19): I talked about Woods Richardson being a very complete pitcher for a teenager, and the same can be said about Pardinho. Pound for pound, Pardinho is as talented as any pitcher in the minors, standing at a listed 5'10" and 155 pounds. The little righty ran into some elbow problems in 2019, which caused the Blue Jays to handle him extremely cautiously, but he still posted a 2.15 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 35/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.2 innings between Class A Lansing and one appearance in the complex level Gulf Coast League. The elbow is supposedly not going to be an issue going forward, so assuming health, he could be in the majors at a very young age. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a really nice curveball in addition to a slider and a changeup, and unlike most teenagers, he mixes his pitches well and throws strikes with all of his offerings. He's got a lot to prove, namely durability as well as the ability to sharpen some of his secondary pitches, but he'll pitch all of 2020 at just 19 years old and knows the art of pitching well beyond his years.
- Josh Winckowski (2020 Age: 21-22): Winckowski was a little known 15th round pick out of high school in the Fort Myers area of Forida in 2016, and while the Blue Jays have had him inch along through the low minors, he's gotten better and better along the way. In 2019, he finally reached full season ball and posted a 2.69 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 108/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127.1 innings Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin, handling the promotion well. He's a 6'4" righty that has seen a velocity bump in pro ball, now sitting comfortably in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and he adds a slider as well as a changeup, both of which are improving. He still doesn't miss a ton of bats, instead generating a lot of ground balls, but with his combination of stuff and command, he has a good shot to work his way up as a #4 starter and potentially pass some of the more well-known names on this list.
- Adam Kloffenstein (2020 Age: 19): Kloffenstein was actually teammates with top hitting prospect Jordan Groshans in high school, and he was a third round pick out of that Houston-area school in the same 2018 draft. Held back in short season ball for his first full season, he was successful and posted a 2.24 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 64/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.1 innings for Vancouver. He's a big 6'5" righty with a great combination of stuff and pitchability, showing a low 90's sinker and a slightly harder straight fastball as well as a pair of breaking balls and a changeup. He's split his breaking ball into those two distinct pitches in the slider and curveball, both of which he shows great feel for and should be able to sharpen as he develops. He does a solid job of throwing strikes, and this all adds up to a great profile because he will spend all of 2020 at just 19 years old . Because of his age, the Blue Jays won't have a problem bringing him along slowly, and he comes with #2 or #3 starter upside when all is said and done.
- Kendall Williams (2020 Age: 19): Though they were selected out of high school a year apart, Williams is actually one day older than Kloffenstein and they share a similar profile as teenage pitchers with a great combination of floor and ceiling. Williams' brief pro debut was a strong one, as he posted a 1.13 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 19/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League, and he'll start to climb the ladder in earnest in 2020. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a really good curveball in addition to a slider and a changeup, and he gets great plane on the ball that helps his pitches play up. He also fills the strike zone well for someone his age, giving him a nice set of building blocks to go off of going forward. It will be interesting to see how much he and Kloffenstein's careers parallel each other. Personally, I like Kloffenstein slightly better, but they're both more or less the same pitcher. Both could potentially move more quickly than the typical high school arms, but the Jays do like to bring their young kids along slowly.
- Keep an eye on: Zach Logue, Nick Allgeyer, Juan De Paula, Sean Wymer
Relief Pitching
- Hector Perez (2020 Age: 23-24): Acquired from the Astros in the Roberto Osuna deal, Perez is a starer for now but his command will likely push him to the bullpen, especially giving the starting pitching depth in this system. In 2019, he posted a 4.60 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 117/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.1 innings at AA New Hampshire, and while he could blow his stuff by lower level hitters, his lack of command has caused it all to play down against more advanced hitters. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and should sit in the higher end of that band in short stints, and he adds a whole set of secondary pitches that can drop or dive or whatever, at least when they're on. That makes him a very uncomfortable at bat in any situation, but the inconsistency in his secondary stuff as well as his complete lack of command can help hitters make the most of those at bats. If he moves to the bullpen, he won't need to be quite as consistent with those offspeed pitches for innings and innings at a time, and his command should be less of a factor as hitters won't get a chance to settle in.
- Kyle Johnston (2020 Age: 23-24): The one for one Daniel Hudson for Kyle Johnston deal could not have possibly worked out better for the Nationals, but the Blue Jays are still hoping to get something out of it. Johnston, like Perez, is still a starter, but his future is likely in the bullpen after struggling in six appearances after the trade. A former 2017 sixth round pick out of Texas, Johnston had a 4.98 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 113/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.2 innings in High A, though his command fell apart after the trade. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a hard cutter that's extremely difficult to square up, though the rest of his game is fairly fringy as he lacks a true breaking ball, or much of a changeup, or consistent command. That pushes him to the bullpen, where he should bump up to the mid 90's and be a strong fastball/cutter guy.
- Keep an eye on: Kirby Snead, Ty Tice, Jon Harris
Showing posts with label Alek Manoah. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alek Manoah. Show all posts
Sunday, January 19, 2020
Monday, July 8, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays
First five rounds: Alek Manoah (1-11), Kendall Williams (2-52), Dasan Brown (3-88), Will Robertson (4-117), Tanner Morris (5-147)
Also notable: Cameron Eden (6-177), LJ Talley (7-207), Philip Clarke (9-267)
After grabbing two premium arms in Alek Manoah and Kendall Williams in the first two rounds, the Blue Jays switched to an offensive focus on Day Two and spent all eight picks on position players, including five infielders. There's not a ton of upside outside those first three or four rounds, as they opted mostly for utility guys and other bench pieces, but all of those guys have a track record of hitting and should assimilate smoothly to pro ball as a group. For good measure, they also popped a hometown product in Ontario native Dasan Brown in the third round.
1-11: RHP Alek Manoah (West Virginia, my rank: 15)
There's big power arms, then there's Alek Manoah. The 6'6", 260 pound righty put it all together in 2019 after struggling with inconsistency as an underclassman, posting a 2.08 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 144/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 108.1 innings for the Mountaineers. Manoah was also very effective in the elite Cape Cod League last summer, posting a 2.70 ERA and a 48/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings against the top competition in college baseball. The Homestead, Florida native uses his huge frame to pump mid 90's fastballs fairly easily, and he can run it up into the upper 90's if he needs to. While the velocity on his fastball is his main weapon, he also deploys a very good slider that took a step forward in 2019, and his changeup, once an afterthought, has improved to where it, too, can be an asset. Manoah also took a step forward with his command this year, and what was once a weak spot is now average or slightly above. Because he can fill the strike zone with an easy plus fastball and add a pair of good secondaries, he's a premium arm, but there is some risk here. Manoah has a bit of a cross-body delivery could make him less deceptive against left handed hitters. There's also the question of his secondaries, which are much better than last year but neither of which can be classified as a true strikeout pitch. Overall, if the Blue Jays can help Manoah get a little sharper there and maintain his command, he has top of the rotation potential, but a big fastball alone won't get you above the middle of the rotation and he could end up as a #3 or #4 guy if his command or secondaries take a step back. Manoah signed for full slot at $4.55 million.
2-52: RHP Kendall Williams (IMG Academy [FL], my rank: 44)
Make that two 6'6" righties at the top of the draft for the Jays. Kendall Williams pitched for the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida (near Tampa), but he is originally from the Memphis area. Williams is actually one of my favorite high school pitchers in this part of the draft due to his combination of projectability and current ability. He uses a high release point to get good angle on the ball and throw a low 90's fastball, also adding a good curveball, a decent slider, and a solid changeup. The plane he's able to get on the ball helps his pitches play up, and the fact that he can command four pitches at this age and at that height speaks of his aptitude for pitching. At 6'6", he has room to add more weight and velocity, and if he can sharpen that slider a little, he'll have four weapons at his disposal. Obviously, he has a lot of work to do as a high school pitcher who will turn 19 in August, but Williams has high upside as a top of the rotation starter and carries slightly less risk than some high school pitchers. He signed away from Vanderbilt for $1.55 million, which was $150,000 above slot.
3-88: OF Dasan Brown (Abbey Park HS [ON], my rank: 121)
Dasan Brown grew up a Blue Jays fan in Oakville, Ontario, a suburb of Toronto, so seeing him get drafted to his hometown team here is pretty cool. He's an exceptional athlete whose plus speed is his top tool, and he uses that speed to be a very good center fielder as well as a threat on the bases. However, his bat will need a lot of work. Brown currently employs a fairly choppy swing that leads to a lot of ground balls and soft contact, which he can beat out for infield singles for now but which will need to change against better defenses. He does have solid bat speed, so if the Blue Jays can successfully overhaul his swing, the 5'11" speedster could develop some gap power and become a doubles and triples machine. For now, though, he doesn't show much feel for hitting and will be a project if the Jays want to develop him into a leadoff hitter eventually. They had mixed results with Anthony Alford the last time they tried this with a similar player. On the plus side, Brown is very young and won't turn 18 until September, making him more than a year younger than Williams. Brown signed away from a Texas A&M commitment for $800,000, which was $121,400 above slot.
4-117: OF Will Robertson (Creighton, my rank: 88)
Will Robertson rounds out the Blue Jays draft class after they took a college pitcher, a high school pitcher, and a high school hitter, as gives them the fourth major demographic as a college hitter. Robertson grew up in the small town of Westphalia, Missouri, which is near Jefferson City in the middle of the state, and he was a relative unknown and ended up at Creighton. There he turned himself into an impact hitter, slashing .333/.412/.641 as a sophomore before hopping over to the Cape Cod League and slashing .300/.380/.435 with four home runs and a 28/16 strikeout to walk ratio. Expectations were high coming into his junior season, though he wasn't quite as dominant a force as he was his sophomore season and he finished with a .311/.408/.599 line, 15 home runs, and a 39/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games while playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly park. Robertson can hit for both contact and for power, and he has proven that not only at Creighton but on the Cape as well, so he has a good chance to hit in pro ball. However, his aggressive approach at the plate limits his walks, and because he's only a so-so defender that will be just adequate in left field, his bat will have to carry him. He has enough in that bat to potentially succeed as is with 20-25 home run potential and middling on-base percentages, but getting more patient and drawing more walks would make him a more well rounded hitter as well as help him solve the advanced pitching he'll face in pro ball. Robertson signed for $422,500, which was $70,200 below slot, and he's slashing .186/.305/.243 with 14 strikeouts to nine walks through his first 19 games at short season Vancouver.
5-147: SS Tanner Morris (Virginia, my rank: 107)
It was a down year for the Virginia Cavaliers, and as a result, 2019 marked the first time since 2009 that UVA had no players selected in the first four rounds. At pick 147 in the fifth round, Morris was the first Cavalier drafted, and he'll give the Blue Jays a potential utility infielder with some offensive upside. He's just a sophomore but because he turned 21 in September and is the age of a college junior, he's eligible this year. The Charlottesville native has a great track record of hitting, as he slashed .331/.404/.449 with a pair of home runs and a 23/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games on the Cape before a big sophomore season where he hit .345/.452/.507 with five home runs and a 38/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at UVA. Given all that production in multiple high level leagues, there are no questions about Morris' hit tool, but the rest of his game is fairly fringy. He has a quick bat but his approach is more slap-heavy and catered towards line drives, so the Blue Jays' goal may be to turn all his doubles into home runs by adding more lift to his swing. He's a so-so defender that should be able to stick at second base and be adequate there, though he could end up in left field. Overall, Morris projects as a bat-first utility guy, but if he can add a little pop, it could help him earn a starting role when combined with his high on-base percentages fueled by strong plate discipline. Morris signed for $397,500, which was $30,600 above slot, and he's slashing .211/.371/.296 with a home run and a 14/17 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games with Vancouver.
6-177: SS Cameron Eden (California, unranked)
Cameron Eden actually isn't too dissimilar a player to Tanner Morris, though Eden's plate discipline doesn't quite match up with Morris'. The Yuba City, California native had a rough sophomore season at Cal and hit just .247/.306/.292, but he turned it around as a junior and bumped that line up to .365/.435/.555 with eight home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 45/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games. Eden has some pop, some contact ability, and some speed, but his overall offensive game at this point is just a bit too light if he ever wants to start at the major league level. He struck out in 19.2% of his plate appearances and walked in 9.4%, so the so-so plate discipline will have to take a step forward in pro ball if he wants to succeed. Given that he has solid tools across the board, that may be the only thing holding him back, but for now he profiles as a utility man. He's average defensively and should be able to handle shortstop in a reserve role, though probably not as a starter, and his speed helps him be a good defensive outfielder. Eden signed for $222,500, which was $57,000 below slot, and he's slashing .234/.330/.260 with an 18/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 games at Vancouver.
7-207: 2B LJ Talley (Georgia, unranked)
Aside from being a year older, LJ Talley is actually a fairly similar player to both Cameron Eden and Tanner Morris. The South Georgia native from the small town of Folkston had a big senior year for the Bulldogs, slashing .332/.435/.489 with eight home runs and a 36/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. The senior has quick hands and produces some power, though his plate discipline took a step forward this year and he finished with a low 12.6% strikeout rate and a high 14% walk rate. He's also a very competent defender, one who may not stick at shortstop but who could be well above average at second base. Talley's kind of a sleeper as a senior sign who turned 22 in May, but I like him better than Eden and think he has a very good shot to hit his way up as a utility infielder. Talley signed for $22,500, which was $196,000 below slot, and he's slashing .146/.268/.229 with a home run and a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games at Class A Lansing.
9-267: C Philip Clarke (Vanderbilt, unranked)
I was a fan of Philip Clarke coming out of a Nashville high school and ranked him #122 on my 2017 list, but his high price tag led him to Vanderbilt, where he has had mixed results. As a draft-eligible sophomore this year, he slashed .308/.388/.480 with nine home runs and a 43/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games, helping lead the Commodores to the National Championship as the starting catcher. He's bat-first for sure, as he uses his clean swing to produce plenty of quality contact, and overall he projects for both average contact and power, which comes out to about 15-20 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages. His defense will decide his future role, as he's steadily improving behind the plate but still grades out as so-so. If he can continue to improve and make himself an average defender, he will be a starting catcher in the majors, something that's hard to come by. However, if his defense remains fringy like it currently is, he may be forced to move off of catcher, in which case he would be a below average left fielder or first baseman at 5'11", as his bat doesn't profile as quite strong enough to justify the defensive value. Hopefully he can remain behind the plate and add to the Blue Jays' deep crop of young catchers led by Danny Jansen. He signed for $500,000, which was more like fourth round money and $345,100 above slot, and he picked up five hits in eleven at bats (including two home runs) over his first two games with Vancouver.
Also notable: Cameron Eden (6-177), LJ Talley (7-207), Philip Clarke (9-267)
After grabbing two premium arms in Alek Manoah and Kendall Williams in the first two rounds, the Blue Jays switched to an offensive focus on Day Two and spent all eight picks on position players, including five infielders. There's not a ton of upside outside those first three or four rounds, as they opted mostly for utility guys and other bench pieces, but all of those guys have a track record of hitting and should assimilate smoothly to pro ball as a group. For good measure, they also popped a hometown product in Ontario native Dasan Brown in the third round.
1-11: RHP Alek Manoah (West Virginia, my rank: 15)
There's big power arms, then there's Alek Manoah. The 6'6", 260 pound righty put it all together in 2019 after struggling with inconsistency as an underclassman, posting a 2.08 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 144/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 108.1 innings for the Mountaineers. Manoah was also very effective in the elite Cape Cod League last summer, posting a 2.70 ERA and a 48/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings against the top competition in college baseball. The Homestead, Florida native uses his huge frame to pump mid 90's fastballs fairly easily, and he can run it up into the upper 90's if he needs to. While the velocity on his fastball is his main weapon, he also deploys a very good slider that took a step forward in 2019, and his changeup, once an afterthought, has improved to where it, too, can be an asset. Manoah also took a step forward with his command this year, and what was once a weak spot is now average or slightly above. Because he can fill the strike zone with an easy plus fastball and add a pair of good secondaries, he's a premium arm, but there is some risk here. Manoah has a bit of a cross-body delivery could make him less deceptive against left handed hitters. There's also the question of his secondaries, which are much better than last year but neither of which can be classified as a true strikeout pitch. Overall, if the Blue Jays can help Manoah get a little sharper there and maintain his command, he has top of the rotation potential, but a big fastball alone won't get you above the middle of the rotation and he could end up as a #3 or #4 guy if his command or secondaries take a step back. Manoah signed for full slot at $4.55 million.
2-52: RHP Kendall Williams (IMG Academy [FL], my rank: 44)
Make that two 6'6" righties at the top of the draft for the Jays. Kendall Williams pitched for the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida (near Tampa), but he is originally from the Memphis area. Williams is actually one of my favorite high school pitchers in this part of the draft due to his combination of projectability and current ability. He uses a high release point to get good angle on the ball and throw a low 90's fastball, also adding a good curveball, a decent slider, and a solid changeup. The plane he's able to get on the ball helps his pitches play up, and the fact that he can command four pitches at this age and at that height speaks of his aptitude for pitching. At 6'6", he has room to add more weight and velocity, and if he can sharpen that slider a little, he'll have four weapons at his disposal. Obviously, he has a lot of work to do as a high school pitcher who will turn 19 in August, but Williams has high upside as a top of the rotation starter and carries slightly less risk than some high school pitchers. He signed away from Vanderbilt for $1.55 million, which was $150,000 above slot.
3-88: OF Dasan Brown (Abbey Park HS [ON], my rank: 121)
Dasan Brown grew up a Blue Jays fan in Oakville, Ontario, a suburb of Toronto, so seeing him get drafted to his hometown team here is pretty cool. He's an exceptional athlete whose plus speed is his top tool, and he uses that speed to be a very good center fielder as well as a threat on the bases. However, his bat will need a lot of work. Brown currently employs a fairly choppy swing that leads to a lot of ground balls and soft contact, which he can beat out for infield singles for now but which will need to change against better defenses. He does have solid bat speed, so if the Blue Jays can successfully overhaul his swing, the 5'11" speedster could develop some gap power and become a doubles and triples machine. For now, though, he doesn't show much feel for hitting and will be a project if the Jays want to develop him into a leadoff hitter eventually. They had mixed results with Anthony Alford the last time they tried this with a similar player. On the plus side, Brown is very young and won't turn 18 until September, making him more than a year younger than Williams. Brown signed away from a Texas A&M commitment for $800,000, which was $121,400 above slot.
4-117: OF Will Robertson (Creighton, my rank: 88)
Will Robertson rounds out the Blue Jays draft class after they took a college pitcher, a high school pitcher, and a high school hitter, as gives them the fourth major demographic as a college hitter. Robertson grew up in the small town of Westphalia, Missouri, which is near Jefferson City in the middle of the state, and he was a relative unknown and ended up at Creighton. There he turned himself into an impact hitter, slashing .333/.412/.641 as a sophomore before hopping over to the Cape Cod League and slashing .300/.380/.435 with four home runs and a 28/16 strikeout to walk ratio. Expectations were high coming into his junior season, though he wasn't quite as dominant a force as he was his sophomore season and he finished with a .311/.408/.599 line, 15 home runs, and a 39/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games while playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly park. Robertson can hit for both contact and for power, and he has proven that not only at Creighton but on the Cape as well, so he has a good chance to hit in pro ball. However, his aggressive approach at the plate limits his walks, and because he's only a so-so defender that will be just adequate in left field, his bat will have to carry him. He has enough in that bat to potentially succeed as is with 20-25 home run potential and middling on-base percentages, but getting more patient and drawing more walks would make him a more well rounded hitter as well as help him solve the advanced pitching he'll face in pro ball. Robertson signed for $422,500, which was $70,200 below slot, and he's slashing .186/.305/.243 with 14 strikeouts to nine walks through his first 19 games at short season Vancouver.
5-147: SS Tanner Morris (Virginia, my rank: 107)
It was a down year for the Virginia Cavaliers, and as a result, 2019 marked the first time since 2009 that UVA had no players selected in the first four rounds. At pick 147 in the fifth round, Morris was the first Cavalier drafted, and he'll give the Blue Jays a potential utility infielder with some offensive upside. He's just a sophomore but because he turned 21 in September and is the age of a college junior, he's eligible this year. The Charlottesville native has a great track record of hitting, as he slashed .331/.404/.449 with a pair of home runs and a 23/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games on the Cape before a big sophomore season where he hit .345/.452/.507 with five home runs and a 38/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at UVA. Given all that production in multiple high level leagues, there are no questions about Morris' hit tool, but the rest of his game is fairly fringy. He has a quick bat but his approach is more slap-heavy and catered towards line drives, so the Blue Jays' goal may be to turn all his doubles into home runs by adding more lift to his swing. He's a so-so defender that should be able to stick at second base and be adequate there, though he could end up in left field. Overall, Morris projects as a bat-first utility guy, but if he can add a little pop, it could help him earn a starting role when combined with his high on-base percentages fueled by strong plate discipline. Morris signed for $397,500, which was $30,600 above slot, and he's slashing .211/.371/.296 with a home run and a 14/17 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games with Vancouver.
6-177: SS Cameron Eden (California, unranked)
Cameron Eden actually isn't too dissimilar a player to Tanner Morris, though Eden's plate discipline doesn't quite match up with Morris'. The Yuba City, California native had a rough sophomore season at Cal and hit just .247/.306/.292, but he turned it around as a junior and bumped that line up to .365/.435/.555 with eight home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 45/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games. Eden has some pop, some contact ability, and some speed, but his overall offensive game at this point is just a bit too light if he ever wants to start at the major league level. He struck out in 19.2% of his plate appearances and walked in 9.4%, so the so-so plate discipline will have to take a step forward in pro ball if he wants to succeed. Given that he has solid tools across the board, that may be the only thing holding him back, but for now he profiles as a utility man. He's average defensively and should be able to handle shortstop in a reserve role, though probably not as a starter, and his speed helps him be a good defensive outfielder. Eden signed for $222,500, which was $57,000 below slot, and he's slashing .234/.330/.260 with an 18/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 games at Vancouver.
7-207: 2B LJ Talley (Georgia, unranked)
Aside from being a year older, LJ Talley is actually a fairly similar player to both Cameron Eden and Tanner Morris. The South Georgia native from the small town of Folkston had a big senior year for the Bulldogs, slashing .332/.435/.489 with eight home runs and a 36/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. The senior has quick hands and produces some power, though his plate discipline took a step forward this year and he finished with a low 12.6% strikeout rate and a high 14% walk rate. He's also a very competent defender, one who may not stick at shortstop but who could be well above average at second base. Talley's kind of a sleeper as a senior sign who turned 22 in May, but I like him better than Eden and think he has a very good shot to hit his way up as a utility infielder. Talley signed for $22,500, which was $196,000 below slot, and he's slashing .146/.268/.229 with a home run and a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games at Class A Lansing.
9-267: C Philip Clarke (Vanderbilt, unranked)
I was a fan of Philip Clarke coming out of a Nashville high school and ranked him #122 on my 2017 list, but his high price tag led him to Vanderbilt, where he has had mixed results. As a draft-eligible sophomore this year, he slashed .308/.388/.480 with nine home runs and a 43/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games, helping lead the Commodores to the National Championship as the starting catcher. He's bat-first for sure, as he uses his clean swing to produce plenty of quality contact, and overall he projects for both average contact and power, which comes out to about 15-20 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages. His defense will decide his future role, as he's steadily improving behind the plate but still grades out as so-so. If he can continue to improve and make himself an average defender, he will be a starting catcher in the majors, something that's hard to come by. However, if his defense remains fringy like it currently is, he may be forced to move off of catcher, in which case he would be a below average left fielder or first baseman at 5'11", as his bat doesn't profile as quite strong enough to justify the defensive value. Hopefully he can remain behind the plate and add to the Blue Jays' deep crop of young catchers led by Danny Jansen. He signed for $500,000, which was more like fourth round money and $345,100 above slot, and he picked up five hits in eleven at bats (including two home runs) over his first two games with Vancouver.
Friday, May 31, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: College RHP's
Teams love advanced college pitchers and are quick to take them early, yet this group of right handers is thin at the top and none are threatening to go in the top five picks, with only three looking like locks for the first round. However, once you get past the thin first tier, there are quite a few names to choose from, and they come in about as many shapes and sizes as you could hope for.
Tier I: Jackson Rutledge, Alek Manoah, George Kirby
There's no debate that this is the first tier, as you would be hard pressed to find anyone listed here ranked below anyone listed in the next tier. Jackson Rutledge surpassed Carter Stewart as the top junior college arm available, and depending on who you ask, some (myself included) would say he's the best college right hander available period. Rutledge transferred from Arkansas to San Jacinto CC in Houston, and the results could not have possibly been any better for the 6'8" righty. The St. Louis native has bumped his fastball consistently into the mid 90's, topping out in the upper 90's with regularity and missing plenty of bats. It's not just the fastball, though, as he spins a curve and a slider to knock hitters off balance, both of which could be plus pitches. He needs to work on his changeup and command, as well as his overall consistency, but his upside is perhaps the highest among any pitcher in this draft. He should go in the top half of the first round. Alek Manoah has been downright incredible for West Virginia this year, posting a 1.85 ERA, an 0.88 WHIP, and a nasty 135/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings heading into the NCAA Tournament. Back in April, he had a three start stretch against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Kansas in which he tossed 26 shutout innings on just ten hits, no walks, and 41 strikeouts; that'll get it done. The big-bodied 6'6" Florida native sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, and his slider has improved into a true strikeout pitch while his changeup has become a usable third pitch and his command has improved as well. Still, Manoah needs to further refine his secondary pitches and command if he wants to be an ace or #2 guy, and while he has much less reliever risk than he did a few months ago, he's not the complete package quite yet as a starter. Like Rutledge, he'll go in the top half of the first round. Lastly, George Kirby is a hair behind Rutledge and Manoah, but he's a great pitcher in his own right, having finished his junior season with a 2.75 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 107/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings. He is actually the safest bet to remain a starter in this entire draft, combining a strong 6'3" frame with great command of a full arsenal. He throws in the low 90's but can reach back for more when he needs it, adding a good curveball and slider as well as a changeup. In today's game, where the three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, home runs) are emphasized, Kirby is especially dominant, having struck out 107 while allowing just six walks and three home runs all season. He lacks the ceiling of Rutledge or Manoah but projects as a strong #3 starter with less risk than other arms, and he projects to go in the middle of the first round, perhaps in the 15-20 range just a few picks behind the other two.
Tier II: Seth Johnson, Matt Canterino, Isaiah Campbell, John Doxakis, Drey Jameson
There is a big drop off after Rutledge, Manoah, and Kirby, with the second tier all coming with their fair share of concerns and little probability that more than one will be a first rounder. Seth Johnson is the most likely of that crew to end up there, raising his stock astronomically in the last calendar year. At this time last year, he was a light hitting shortstop at Louisburg College in North Carolina, but the wicked fastball/slider combination he displayed in his transition to the mound gives him a high ceiling. He posted a 4.72 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 77/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings against relatively weak competition in the Big South, but it was his first time pitching and he showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a good slider and a usable curveball and changeup. His command isn't pinpoint but he was able to find the strike zone consistently, and he should continue to improve in that respect down the road. With no track record to speak of, he's a risky pick, but he won't turn 21 until September and the 6'1" righty has a high ceiling if he can continue on his current trajectory. Over at Rice, Matt Canterino put up a second straight strong season by posting a 2.90 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 112/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 93 innings heading into the tournament. He's 6'2" with long arms and a bit of a funky delivery, but he repeats it well and throws plenty of strikes. Stuff-wise, he sits in the low 90's and adds a pair of very good breaking balls, though in pro ball he'll need to work on his changeup. He currently has mid-rotation starter projection but could be a #2 if he continues to command everything well, though the effort in his delivery could push him to the bullpen. He figures to go in the comp round or early second round. Isaiah Campbell could have gone in the top five rounds last year, but he was young for the class and stayed an extra year at Arkansas. After posting a 4.26 ERA in 2018, he dropped it to 2.50 in 2019 heading into the tournament with a 0.96 WHIP and a 97/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings. He still throws in the low to mid 90's from a high release point with a good slider, but what was fringy command last year has been tightened up to average this year. He adds a curveball and an interesting splitter, both of which need work, and the development of those pitches will likely be the difference as to whether he ends up a #3 starter or a power reliever. He'll probably be drafted in the same range as Canterino. John Doxakis has had an exceptional SEC career, and he capped it off with a 1.84 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 106/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings for Texas A&M this year. Doxakis is 6'4" but only throws around 90 with his fastball, instead relying on a good slider and better command to keep hitters off balance. He's got a little bit of effort in his delivery and while it doesn't impact his ability to spot his pitches, it creates some questions as to whether he can stick in the rotation long term. Still, he's built like a starter and has strong makeup, so he could add some velocity and end up a solid #3 or #4 starter long-term. He won't be 21 until August and he figures to go in the same range as Canterino and Campbell, but I like the other two just a bit better. Lastly, Ball State's Drey Jameson is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft, having posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 146/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings against relatively weaker competition in the MAC. He's only six feet tall and skinny at that, but he sits in the mid 90's and holds that velocity consistently, adding a pair of very good breaking balls. Jameson's live arm could help teams dream on a Sixto Sanchez-type player (though Sanchez has better command and ironically is almost a year younger), though like Sanchez he faces durability concerns due to his slight frame. His ability to hold his fastball velocity does give him a strong shot to remain a starter, and he could go anywhere from the comp round to the end of the second round.
Tier III: Ryan Zeferjahn, Ryne Nelson, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Hess, Noah Song
Four of the five of these guys face serious reliever questions, and I find it unlikely that more than one of them aside from Song ends up a big league starter. Ryan Zeferjahn has perhaps the best shot after posting a 3.97 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings for Kansas, though he got blown up for nine runs in his last start against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament. Zeferjahn was a top three rounds prospect coming out of high school in Topeka and the scouting report is roughly the same now, as the 6'4" righty can sit in the mid 90's and add a very good slider, but his awkward mechanics impact his command and his consistency (he had tossed 7.1 shutout innings against the same Kansas State team a week earlier). Because of this, he probably only has a 50/50 shot at remaining in the rotation, though his fastball/slider combination could play up in the bullpen and be very effective. He should go in the second or third round. Ryne Nelson is more likely than not going to be a reliever, especially after a tough stretch late in the season. Nelson had a 4.29 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 104/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings for Oregon, showing premium mid to upper 90's velocity and a good slider from an athletic 6'4" frame. However, his poor command and lack of a reliable third pitch cause those first two to play down in the rotation, but in the bullpen he has the potential to hit 100 MPH. He just needs to clean up his command, and he'll probably be a third round pick. Ryan Pepiot had an up and down season for Butler, posting a 3.92 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 126/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings. This showed a little bit of regression from his strong 2018 (2.62 ERA, 101/32 K/BB), and he gets by with a four pitch mix headlined by a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup. His two breaking balls, combined with that changeup, helped him carve up Big East hitters, but they're a little bit too soft to be strikeout pitches against pro hitters. He also tends to lose his command of the strike zone from time to time, so a move to the bullpen might help him with his consistency and enable him to focus on either his curve or his slider instead of both, though pro coaching could make him a #4 starter. He looks like a third rounder. Zack Hess was eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and his scouting report has not changed much, but he has been as inconsistent as anybody this year with a 4.70 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 78/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings. Hess is 6'6" and can sit in the mid to upper 90's as a reliever, but he's been used mostly as a starter, where his fastball is more low to mid 90's. He also has a very good slider that can be a true out pitch out of the bullpen, but his mediocre command and lack of a reliable third pitch kept him from succeeding in the LSU rotation. There is still some talk of running him out as a starter in pro ball, but it seems like that experiment has played its course and he should become a full time reliever, where his fastball/slider combination could make him a strong set-up man and help him get to the big leagues quickly. He should be a third round pick. Lastly, Noah Song has one of the most unique profiles in college baseball. The 6'4" senior put up video game numbers at Navy this season (11-1, 1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 161/31 K/BB in 94 IP), but he's required by law to serve two years in the Navy before he can pitch professionally. On one hand, it's hard to pass on a guy who throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good slider as part of a full arsenal which he commands somewhat well, but on the other, he might not get to pitch professionally until after his 24th birthday. A team willing to be patient with him could get a fringe-first round arm somewhere later in the draft, so where he ends up is completely up in the air.
Others: Ryan Garcia, Ryan Jensen, Alec Marsh, Tyler Baum, Hunter Brown
*Carter Stewart has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and will not be draft-eligible. He would have fit into Tier II.
Tier I: Jackson Rutledge, Alek Manoah, George Kirby
There's no debate that this is the first tier, as you would be hard pressed to find anyone listed here ranked below anyone listed in the next tier. Jackson Rutledge surpassed Carter Stewart as the top junior college arm available, and depending on who you ask, some (myself included) would say he's the best college right hander available period. Rutledge transferred from Arkansas to San Jacinto CC in Houston, and the results could not have possibly been any better for the 6'8" righty. The St. Louis native has bumped his fastball consistently into the mid 90's, topping out in the upper 90's with regularity and missing plenty of bats. It's not just the fastball, though, as he spins a curve and a slider to knock hitters off balance, both of which could be plus pitches. He needs to work on his changeup and command, as well as his overall consistency, but his upside is perhaps the highest among any pitcher in this draft. He should go in the top half of the first round. Alek Manoah has been downright incredible for West Virginia this year, posting a 1.85 ERA, an 0.88 WHIP, and a nasty 135/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings heading into the NCAA Tournament. Back in April, he had a three start stretch against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Kansas in which he tossed 26 shutout innings on just ten hits, no walks, and 41 strikeouts; that'll get it done. The big-bodied 6'6" Florida native sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, and his slider has improved into a true strikeout pitch while his changeup has become a usable third pitch and his command has improved as well. Still, Manoah needs to further refine his secondary pitches and command if he wants to be an ace or #2 guy, and while he has much less reliever risk than he did a few months ago, he's not the complete package quite yet as a starter. Like Rutledge, he'll go in the top half of the first round. Lastly, George Kirby is a hair behind Rutledge and Manoah, but he's a great pitcher in his own right, having finished his junior season with a 2.75 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 107/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings. He is actually the safest bet to remain a starter in this entire draft, combining a strong 6'3" frame with great command of a full arsenal. He throws in the low 90's but can reach back for more when he needs it, adding a good curveball and slider as well as a changeup. In today's game, where the three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, home runs) are emphasized, Kirby is especially dominant, having struck out 107 while allowing just six walks and three home runs all season. He lacks the ceiling of Rutledge or Manoah but projects as a strong #3 starter with less risk than other arms, and he projects to go in the middle of the first round, perhaps in the 15-20 range just a few picks behind the other two.
Tier II: Seth Johnson, Matt Canterino, Isaiah Campbell, John Doxakis, Drey Jameson
There is a big drop off after Rutledge, Manoah, and Kirby, with the second tier all coming with their fair share of concerns and little probability that more than one will be a first rounder. Seth Johnson is the most likely of that crew to end up there, raising his stock astronomically in the last calendar year. At this time last year, he was a light hitting shortstop at Louisburg College in North Carolina, but the wicked fastball/slider combination he displayed in his transition to the mound gives him a high ceiling. He posted a 4.72 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 77/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings against relatively weak competition in the Big South, but it was his first time pitching and he showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a good slider and a usable curveball and changeup. His command isn't pinpoint but he was able to find the strike zone consistently, and he should continue to improve in that respect down the road. With no track record to speak of, he's a risky pick, but he won't turn 21 until September and the 6'1" righty has a high ceiling if he can continue on his current trajectory. Over at Rice, Matt Canterino put up a second straight strong season by posting a 2.90 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 112/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 93 innings heading into the tournament. He's 6'2" with long arms and a bit of a funky delivery, but he repeats it well and throws plenty of strikes. Stuff-wise, he sits in the low 90's and adds a pair of very good breaking balls, though in pro ball he'll need to work on his changeup. He currently has mid-rotation starter projection but could be a #2 if he continues to command everything well, though the effort in his delivery could push him to the bullpen. He figures to go in the comp round or early second round. Isaiah Campbell could have gone in the top five rounds last year, but he was young for the class and stayed an extra year at Arkansas. After posting a 4.26 ERA in 2018, he dropped it to 2.50 in 2019 heading into the tournament with a 0.96 WHIP and a 97/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings. He still throws in the low to mid 90's from a high release point with a good slider, but what was fringy command last year has been tightened up to average this year. He adds a curveball and an interesting splitter, both of which need work, and the development of those pitches will likely be the difference as to whether he ends up a #3 starter or a power reliever. He'll probably be drafted in the same range as Canterino. John Doxakis has had an exceptional SEC career, and he capped it off with a 1.84 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 106/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings for Texas A&M this year. Doxakis is 6'4" but only throws around 90 with his fastball, instead relying on a good slider and better command to keep hitters off balance. He's got a little bit of effort in his delivery and while it doesn't impact his ability to spot his pitches, it creates some questions as to whether he can stick in the rotation long term. Still, he's built like a starter and has strong makeup, so he could add some velocity and end up a solid #3 or #4 starter long-term. He won't be 21 until August and he figures to go in the same range as Canterino and Campbell, but I like the other two just a bit better. Lastly, Ball State's Drey Jameson is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft, having posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 146/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings against relatively weaker competition in the MAC. He's only six feet tall and skinny at that, but he sits in the mid 90's and holds that velocity consistently, adding a pair of very good breaking balls. Jameson's live arm could help teams dream on a Sixto Sanchez-type player (though Sanchez has better command and ironically is almost a year younger), though like Sanchez he faces durability concerns due to his slight frame. His ability to hold his fastball velocity does give him a strong shot to remain a starter, and he could go anywhere from the comp round to the end of the second round.
Tier III: Ryan Zeferjahn, Ryne Nelson, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Hess, Noah Song
Four of the five of these guys face serious reliever questions, and I find it unlikely that more than one of them aside from Song ends up a big league starter. Ryan Zeferjahn has perhaps the best shot after posting a 3.97 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings for Kansas, though he got blown up for nine runs in his last start against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament. Zeferjahn was a top three rounds prospect coming out of high school in Topeka and the scouting report is roughly the same now, as the 6'4" righty can sit in the mid 90's and add a very good slider, but his awkward mechanics impact his command and his consistency (he had tossed 7.1 shutout innings against the same Kansas State team a week earlier). Because of this, he probably only has a 50/50 shot at remaining in the rotation, though his fastball/slider combination could play up in the bullpen and be very effective. He should go in the second or third round. Ryne Nelson is more likely than not going to be a reliever, especially after a tough stretch late in the season. Nelson had a 4.29 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 104/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings for Oregon, showing premium mid to upper 90's velocity and a good slider from an athletic 6'4" frame. However, his poor command and lack of a reliable third pitch cause those first two to play down in the rotation, but in the bullpen he has the potential to hit 100 MPH. He just needs to clean up his command, and he'll probably be a third round pick. Ryan Pepiot had an up and down season for Butler, posting a 3.92 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 126/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings. This showed a little bit of regression from his strong 2018 (2.62 ERA, 101/32 K/BB), and he gets by with a four pitch mix headlined by a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup. His two breaking balls, combined with that changeup, helped him carve up Big East hitters, but they're a little bit too soft to be strikeout pitches against pro hitters. He also tends to lose his command of the strike zone from time to time, so a move to the bullpen might help him with his consistency and enable him to focus on either his curve or his slider instead of both, though pro coaching could make him a #4 starter. He looks like a third rounder. Zack Hess was eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and his scouting report has not changed much, but he has been as inconsistent as anybody this year with a 4.70 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 78/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings. Hess is 6'6" and can sit in the mid to upper 90's as a reliever, but he's been used mostly as a starter, where his fastball is more low to mid 90's. He also has a very good slider that can be a true out pitch out of the bullpen, but his mediocre command and lack of a reliable third pitch kept him from succeeding in the LSU rotation. There is still some talk of running him out as a starter in pro ball, but it seems like that experiment has played its course and he should become a full time reliever, where his fastball/slider combination could make him a strong set-up man and help him get to the big leagues quickly. He should be a third round pick. Lastly, Noah Song has one of the most unique profiles in college baseball. The 6'4" senior put up video game numbers at Navy this season (11-1, 1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 161/31 K/BB in 94 IP), but he's required by law to serve two years in the Navy before he can pitch professionally. On one hand, it's hard to pass on a guy who throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good slider as part of a full arsenal which he commands somewhat well, but on the other, he might not get to pitch professionally until after his 24th birthday. A team willing to be patient with him could get a fringe-first round arm somewhere later in the draft, so where he ends up is completely up in the air.
Others: Ryan Garcia, Ryan Jensen, Alec Marsh, Tyler Baum, Hunter Brown
*Carter Stewart has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and will not be draft-eligible. He would have fit into Tier II.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)