Just like with the pitchers, more hitting talent is heading to college than ever before. In this case, there are actually a ton of catchers between Georgia Tech's Kevin Parada, UVA's Kyle Teel, Arizona's Daniel Susac, and Georgia's Corey Collins, in addition to Miami's Carlos Perez, who just missed the "others" section. Another running theme here is power, as only two of the twelve names profile for anything less than above average raw power. Parada and LSU's Dylan Crews are the clear headliners here, though lower down on the list, I see Cayden Wallace and AJ Shaver being interesting sleepers to keep an eye on. By conference in the 17 listed, the SEC leads the way with six names including two of the top four, while Arizona was the only school to bring on multiple hitters on the list. Between the hitters and pitchers list, Miami and Arizona are tied with three names apiece, though I'd easily call the Miami crop the best one.
1. C Kevin Parada (my draft rank: 47)
Loyola HS [CA] -> Georgia Tech
Atlanta is a long way from Kevin Parada's home in Los Angeles, but if you're looking for a school with track record behind the plate, Georgia Tech is the way to go. Parada will look to be next in a long line of Yellow Jacket catching talent extending from Jason Varitek and Matt Wieters to, more recently, 2018 Giants second overall pick Joey Bart and 2019 A's fourth round pick Kyle McCann. If anything, Parada brings a big time bat. It's not as flashy as Bart's, but it's certainly more balanced than McCann's. He combines naturally above average raw power with an advanced hit tool that has enabled that power to play up in games and which made him one of the more consistent performers on the prep circuit. This spring, he started off especially hot and might have hit his way into first round consideration, but his commitment to Georgia Tech remained firm and he effectively priced himself out of the draft. Defensively, he's a bit more of a work in progress, as he doesn't show the soft hands and natural agility behind the plate that teams look for, but he should still be good enough to catch at least in school. Very few question his bat, and he should be able to jump into the Yellow Jacket starting lineup as a freshman, whether that's behind the plate or somewhere else like first base or DH. He has a good shot to be one of the ACC's better bats over the next three seasons, so the development of his glove will likely determine whether he cracks the first round. Pre-draft profile here.
2. OF Dylan Crews (my draft rank: 55/unranked)
Lake Mary HS [FL] -> Louisiana State
Technically, I removed Dylan Crews from my draft rankings when he formally removed himself from the draft, but he would have ranked 55th had he not taken his name out. LSU is no stranger to big recruits making it to campus and brought on a big bat in Cade Doughty last year, but Crews could be an even bigger get. Playing out of the same suburban Orlando high school that produced Rockies infielder Brendan Rodgers in 2015, Crews put his name on the map early in his high school career and has long been a staple in first round conversations. However, an up and down summer, in addition to an unremarkable, shortened senior year, pushed him more into the second round range. Crews clearly believes that he possesses a first round bat, and he's off to prove it in Baton Rouge. He naturally produces a ton of raw power from a lightning quick right handed swing, and he has tapped that power against high level pitching for a long time. However, this past summer, he really tried to show it off, and that led to some swing and miss and overall uneven performance. Crews is at his best when he stays within himself and lets his strength and bat speed send the ball deep, and when he does stay within himself, he shows an above average hit tool. He'll look to refine his approach at LSU and get more consistent, and if he produces in the SEC like he's capable of, he could return in 2023 a first round pick. I could easily see Crews as one of the SEC's most productive hitters over the next few seasons. Pre-draft profile here.
3. OF Chase Davis (my draft rank: 65)
Franklin HS [CA] -> Arizona
I think more people expected Nick Yorke to make to campus at Arizona than Chase Davis, but Yorke's surprise first round selection to Boston was enough to pry him away from Tucson and Davis ended up effectively pricing himself out instead. Throw in Daniel Susac, and you have a couple of big Sacramento-area bats coming in to replace the departed catchers Austin Wells (Yankees, first round) and Matthew Dyer (Mets, fourth round). Davis is a power hitter with plenty of lean muscle packed onto his 6'1" frame, deploying his quick hands into explosive bat speed from the left side. Right now, the main flaw in his profile is a significant bat wrap that causes his swing to start with the head of the bat pointed towards the pitcher, making his swing a lot longer than it needs to be. Against high school pitching, his bat speed was more than enough to make up for that, but some of the premium arms on the showcase circuit were able to exploit that and overall he's a fairly streaky hitter. At Arizona, he has both the power and feel for the barrel to develop into one of the better hitters in the Pac 12, but his success might hinge on how well the Arizona coaching staff is able to smooth out that bat wrap. To me, it's reason to envision him showing a future average or even above average hit tool, because if he can succeed with the bat wrap, who knows how well he could hit without it. Eliminating that "who knows" with big production in the Pac 12 could turn him into a first round pick, but further inconsistency could have the opposite effect. Davis also has a plus arm and enough range to be an above average defender in right field, perhaps even a center fielder in college ball depending on who the Wildcats have in the outfield. Pre-draft profile here.
4. OF Enrique Bradfield (my draft rank: 72)
American Heritage HS [FL] -> Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt put together the best outfield recruiting class I've ever seen between Robert Hassell, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Enrique Bradfield, and while Hassell (Padres) and Crow-Armstrong (Mets) both went in the top 19 picks, Bradfield made it through and will end up in Nashville. One of the fastest players in the 2020 draft class, he has a chance to be a true leadoff bat that sets the tone for the next few Vanderbilt lineups. A very skinny kid at a listed 6' and 155 pounds, Bradfield is an old school type with very little power to speak of. Instead, he likes to slap the ball around the field and use his plus-plus wheels to do the rest, though he's not a pure slap hitter in that he has shown the ability to drive the ball if he wants to. I don't see him ever getting close to average power, but with a loose left handed swing and natural feel for the barrel, I could definitely see Bradfield knocking plenty of doubles and triples at Vanderbilt while running into a couple of home runs here and there. He'll also wreak havoc on the basepaths and be a handful for SEC catchers, aided by the likely high on-base percentages he'll put up. It's hard to see him projecting as a true first round pick just due to the lack of power, but three years of production in the SEC to prove his hit tool is for real could get him close. Defensively, I probably don't have to tell you that he's a true center fielder. It's always hard to break through and find playing time at Vanderbilt, but I don't expect him to take too long to be at least ready for full time duties in the SEC. Pre-draft profile here.
5. SS/3B Drew Bowser (my draft rank: 79)
Harvard-Westlake HS [CA] -> Stanford
Bowser was actually only the second best prospect on his Los Angeles high school team behind Mets first rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong, but he has a shot to be one of the better hitters Stanford has brought on in recent years. Bowser is a power hitter that generates a lot of torque from a sturdy 6'3" frame and a powerful right handed swing, regularly putting on a show in batting practice. While his power hasn't played up as consistently in games, it's definitely trending in the right direction as he has tightened up that right handed swing and let his power come naturally rather than selling out. A shortstop in high school, he's probably a third baseman in pro ball due to his fringy range, but he may be able to stick at the position in college depending on what the lineup looks like around him. If a better defender does push him to third base, he'll be above average there and an asset for the Cardinal. Bowser was trending up as a hitter before the season shut down, so it will be interesting to see how ready his bat is for the Pac 12 when his freshman season begins. Either way, by the time he's a sophomore, I'd expect him to be putting up big numbers. Pre-draft profile here.
6. SS/3B Yohandy Morales (my draft rank: 91)
Braddock HS [FL] -> Miami
Miami brought on two of the top four incoming high school pitching prospects on my previous list, and now they're on the board with the sixth best incoming hitting prospect as well. To make things even more fun for Hurricanes fans, all three of Victor Mederos, Alejandro Rosario, and Yohandy Morales, plus another top recruit in catcher Carlos Perez, attended high school in Miami-Dade County. Morales is a big power hitter who was trending up in the spring, more efficiently channeling his natural strength and leverage into game power. He's a big guy at 6'4" that can really put a charge into a baseball, though up until recently, he had a lot going on in his setup/swing that often led to some swing and miss. If he can maintain the adjustments he made in the shortened 2020 season that saw him calm down that setup, he could be the anchor of Miami lineups for the next couple of years. Morales, like Bowser, played shortstop in high school, but he's probably more likely to end up at third base even in Coral Gables. The loss of shortstop Freddy Zamora (Brewers, second round) and infield recruit Sammy Infante (Nationals, comp round) helps Morales' chances, though Miami is such a hotbed for talent that someone will inevitably rise up and push Morales to third base. Still, he has a chance to be solid average there and given how much he could hit, it won't really matter where he ends up defensively. Evaluators will be watching closely to see if he can bring that quieter approach to college ball, and if he demolishes ACC pitching like he is capable of, we could be looking at a high pick in the 2023 draft. Pre-draft profile here.
7. C Kyle Teel (my draft rank: 98/unranked)
Mahwah HS [NJ] -> Virginia
Like Dylan Crews, Kyle Teel formally removed his name from the draft during the spring, so he didn't end up on my rankings when he could have cracked the top 100. Nobody recruits out of the Pennsylvania/New Jersey area better than UVA, and Teel will hope to follow 2016 first rounder Matt Thaiss on the New Jersey to UVA catcher to major leagues pipeline. He will fit right into the Cavaliers' lineup as a well-rounded, disciplined player with the ability to play from day one. Teel doesn't have huge physical tools, but he's an agile defender behind the plate with soft hands who is actually athletic enough to play the infield if needed. With further refinement in college, he could make himself into a well above average defensive catcher. With the bat, it's a balanced profile with a loose left handed swing, some sneaky power, and a consistent hit tool that will enable him to handle ACC pitching. He probably won't post eye popping offensive numbers like Thaiss, but he'll be a better defender and he'll likely be very consistent. Continuing to bulk up and add impact to his overall game could put him in a really nice spot for the 2023 draft – while NC State's Patrick Bailey has more power than Teel will likely end up with, the fact that he went 13th overall without eye popping numbers shows the value of good defensive catchers who can hit.
8. OF Jace Bohrofen (my draft rank: 102)
Westmoore HS [OK] -> Oklahoma
Though Oklahoma lost shortstop recruits Bobby Witt Jr. to the Royals and Ed Howard to the Cubs in back to back first rounds, they landed a very solid outfield bat in Jace Bohrofen. While he doesn't have one standout tool like many of the other names on this list, Bohrofen brings a broad baseline that, at the very least, will make him a very productive player at the college level. I love the looseness and natural whip in his left handed swing, and his above average feel for the barrel enables him to make very consistent hard contact. For now, the power is pretty ordinary, but as he bulks up, he has the swing type and natural projection in his 6'2" frame to profile for average or even slightly above average power in pro ball. Back at the college level, I see him pretty easily playing up to at least above average power with metal bats and against Big 12 pitching. His feel for the game should enable him to slot right into the Oklahoma lineup from day one, and while he's more of a corner outfield profile for pro ball, he could stick in center field for the Sooners. Scouts were moderately underwhelmed by the tools he shows at this point, so three years of production in the Big 12 in addition to the chance to grow into some real power could change that in a big way come 2023.
9. 3B Cayden Wallace (my draft rank: 104)
Greenbrier HS [AR] -> Arkansas
Arkansas lost two superstar hitters to the 2020 draft in outfielder Heston Kjerstad (Orioles, second overall) and Casey Martin (Phillies, third round), but the returns of catcher Casey Opitz and infielder Robert Moore, plus a huge incoming freshman bat in Cayden Wallace, should keep the Razorbacks' lineup humming at a high level. Wallace is yet another power hitter who can really, really smoke the baseball, posting exit velocities up there with the best in the class. His swing could use a little bit of mechanical refinement to help him get more loft and extension, which could help him tap even bigger power. The hit tool will take a little more projection, as he has shown plenty of feel for the barrel in his high school career but since the barrel isn't in the zone for long, he can swing through hittable pitches at times. He'll be an interesting project for the Arkansas coaching staff that has had plenty of success with these types of hitters in the past, with a ton of upside to be unlocked. Given how deep the Arkansas lineup is, I'm not sure if he'll be able to crack the lineup from day one, but I expect him to work his way in rather quickly and he could be a legitimate impact hitter sooner rather than later for the Razorbacks. A shortstop in high school, he'll likely end up at third base in college, where his strong arm and quick instincts should make him solid average there.
10. C Daniel Susac (my draft rank: 110)
Jesuit HS [CA] -> Arizona
Joining Chase Davis on his way from Sacramento to Tucson will be Daniel Susac, the younger brother of MLB catcher Andrew Susac. Daniel will be a huge get for a Wildcats team that just lost both of its star catchers in Austin Wells (Yankees, first round) and Matthew Dyer (Mets, fourth round), giving him the chance to start full time immediately. Overall, Susac is a very solid all-around player with solid tools all-around but nothing that stands out at present. He generates above average raw power from a big, 6'3" frame that he has shown the ability to tap in games. A switch hitter, his long arms and legs can put some length into his swings at times, though he has shown the ability to make adjustments. His strength is apparent behind the plate with a strong arm, though he's not the most athletic back there and is still smoothing out his overall defensive game. Together it should profile well in college, where he could hit in the middle of the Wildcats lineup, and refining everything down into a more consistent product could really help his draft stock. He'll want to work quickly, because his May birthday makes him a year older than his peers in his class, and he'll be both age-appropriate and eligible for the 2022 draft as a sophomore.
11. C Corey Collins (my draft rank: 122)
North Gwinnett HS [GA] -> Georgia
Corey Collins was trending up when the shutdown happened, and some scouts believed he had a chance to hit his way into day one consideration with a full season. What was pro ball's loss could ultimately become Georgia's gain, as they're bringing on the top incoming catcher in the SEC. Collins, like many of the names before him on this list, is a power hitter with a big, strong 6'3" frame that produces a lot of leverage from the left side. However, he wasn't really seen much on the showcase circuit and therefore scouts didn't really know what to make of his hit tool, so that makes him a great candidate to go prove it in college. Some scouts who have seen more of Collins think his hit tool could be at least average, which would make him a really valuable player not only for the Bulldogs but in pro ball, but again, he's gotta prove it. Behind the plate, his defense is typical of high school catchers, with a strong arm and decent blocking/receiving skills in need of refinement. Collins has a chance to shoot up boards Patrick Bailey style with a strong career in Athens, and either way he's a huge get for that Georgia program.
12. OF AJ Shaver (my draft rank: 130)
South Lake HS [FL] -> Florida State
AJ Shaver was one of the last late risers up the board in this weird draft cycle, but his rise came too little too late to divert him away from heading to Florida State. He has a very quick right handed swing that produces some nice, natural raw power that he can tap naturally without selling out, though his aggressive approach has limited him at times against higher level pitching. Not just a power hitter, Shaver is also a plus runner that deploys his speed well on both sides of the ball, giving him another dimension with which to impact the game. While his hit tool is a bit uneven, that's more due to his approach than due to a lack of ability to find the barrel, and calming down his approach a bit at Florida State could help him improve his stock in a big way. Shaver was beginning to make those adjustments this spring and some regional evaluators are buying into the improvement, which is why his stock was rising. If he continues trending in this direction at FSU, Seminoles fans might have found themselves their next big offensive prospect.
Honorable Mentions: SS Cade Horton/3B Tanner Witt
Horton: Norman HS [OK] -> Oklahoma. Witt: Episcopal HS [TX] -> Texas.
These guys were more prominently featured as numbers five and seven on my pitchers list, but they're going to hit at school as well so the Big 12 has a couple of big time two-way prospects coming to town. Horton, who is also a quarterback, generates some nice raw power from the extension he gets on a fairly explosive right handed swing, though his hit tool needs some work. His football athleticism plays well on the diamond, and he should stick at shortstop at least through his college career. With fellow Oklahoma commit Ed Howard signing with the Cubs in the first round, the spot is there for him to claim on days where he's not pitching. As for Tanner Witt, he's not quite the hitting prospect that Horton is, but he still shows big raw power from a 6'6" frame. Those long arms help him really put a charge into the ball when he gets extended, but the bat isn't quite as explosive as other power hitters in the class and he might struggle a bit with Big 12 pitching. While I would pick Horton to strike out Witt and Witt to strike out Horton in any future Big 12 match ups, I think Horton would be just a little more likely to pick up a hit off Witt than the other way around. Witt also doesn't bring the same defensive value as Horton, looking like he'll be limited to first base.
Others (by pre-draft rank):
132. SS Cole Foster, Plano Senior HS [TX] -> Auburn
140. OF Slade Wilks, Columbia Academy [MS] -> Southern Mississippi
145. 3B/RHP/QB Nolan McLean, Garner Magnet HS [NC] -> Oklahoma State
152. SS Colby Halter, Bishop Kenny HS [FL] -> Florida
158. OF Mario Zabala, International Baseball Academy [PR] -> Florida International
Monday, July 27, 2020
Saturday, July 25, 2020
2020 Draft: Top 12 Undrafted High School Pitchers
Personally, I love watching Friday night duels in college baseball, and the shortened 2020 draft means we'll have more pitching talent heading to school than ever before. Carson Montgomery headlines the incoming freshman class as a fringe-first rounder who wanted to head to Florida State, while Miami managed to bring on not one but two of the top four, at least by my pre-draft rankings. Other big programs like Vanderbilt, LSU, and Texas jumped on there, while San Diego State lost Ricky Tiedemann when he decided to switch it up to Long Beach Community College, where he'll be draft-eligible again in 2021. Personally, my two "sleeper" picks from this list are Ryan Hagenow and and Nick Griffin, the latter of which reminds me of Asa Lacy as a high schooler.
1. RHP Carson Montgomery (my draft rank: 39)
Windermere HS [FL] -> Florida State
The top player on my rankings to go undrafted, Carson Montgomery is set to jump into a Florida State rotation that lost CJ Van Eyk (Blue Jays, second round) and Shane Drohan (Red Sox, fifth round) as well as Antonio Velez (Marlins, undrafted) out of the bullpen. Van Eyk and Drohan were big draft names in their own right out of high school in 2017, ranking 107th and 118th on my draft list that year, so bringing on blue chip recruits is nothing new for FSU. Montgomery is a 6'2" right hander with plenty of room to grow into his frame, and his extremely loose right arm makes him even more projectable. For now, he has a low 90's fastball that he can run up to 96, and he's working on maintaining that velocity a little better. His best secondary pitch is an inconsistent slider that can flash plus at its best, and he throws a sneaky good changeup that he doesn't use as often. His command is fairly inconsistent as well, but he's very young for an incoming freshman and won't even turn 18 until August. Montgomery might need a little bit of refinement throughout his freshman year but I imagine that by the time he's a sophomore, he'll be a true ace for the Seminoles. Pre-draft profile here.
2. RHP Ryan Hagenow (my draft rank: 52)
Farragut HS [TN] -> Kentucky
I took a bit of a gamble on Ryan Hagenow, who ranked 52nd on my list but 68th on MLB Pipeline and 194th on Baseball America. I really like his upside though, and I have a feeling he's going to spend his three years in Lexington and turn into a monster. He's an uber-projectable 6'5" righty out of the Knoxville area who has a lot to work on, but I think he has a lot going for him as well. His fastball velocity isn't quite there yet, sitting around 90 for the most part and topping out around 93, but his loose arm puts nice movement on the pitch and portends to future velocity gains. His slider is average for now, flattening out at times but also showing some nice depth down in the zone when he gets it right. Adding some power and consistency in college could make it a plus pitch. To me, his best pitch right now is his changeup, with great fading action to the arm side. He does a decent job of throwing strikes, but he needs to smoothen out his delivery a little bit, which I believe he will. I love the way his arms and legs work in his delivery and he could easily add 20-30 pounds at school, which should help him add power to his fastball and slider. In a best case scenario, I could really see him coming out for the 2023 draft with three plus pitches and a starter's frame, which would easily put him in the first round. There's a long way to go, and I don't think he'll slot directly into Kentucky's weekend rotation right away, but he is relatively young for the class with a June birthday and I have a good feeling about him. Pre-draft profile here.
3. RHP Victor Mederos (my draft rank: 57)
Westminster Christian HS [FL] -> Miami
Miami did a fantastic job of holding its talented recruiting class together, and it's a good thing because they lost their entire weekend rotation in Slade Cecconi (Diamondbacks, comp round), Chris McMahon (Rockies, second round), and Brian Van Belle (Red Sox, undrafted), plus reliever Tyler Keysor (Reds, undrafted). Headlining the incoming recruits, at least as far as my list goes, is Victor Mederos, a Cuban-born pitcher who fled the country with his mother and brother when he was six years old and settled in Miami. The big 6'4" righty has as strong an arm as anyone in this class, sitting in the low to mid 90's with a fastball he can run up to 96. He has two breaking balls in a curveball and a slider that can flash plus, with the former showing great depth and power at times and the latter coming in with harder velocity. There is a solid changeup as well, and Mederos aggressively attacks hitters with all four, though the two breaking balls can blend into each other at times. That aggressiveness can hurt him more than it helps him at times, with a tendency to overthrow and lose his arm slot and therefore strike zone. He does have the innate strike throwing ability to be successful in that area, and all he really needs to do is stay within himself more. Miami is getting a really exciting, high-octane arm who could develop into an impact starter, though with a June birthday that makes him old for the class, he'll be eligible again for the 2022 draft as a sophomore. Pre-draft profile here.
4. RHP Alejandro Rosario (my draft rank: 67)
Miami Christian HS [FL] -> Miami
Joining Mederos in that future Hurricanes rotation will be fellow Miami native Alejandro Rosario, though he's a very different pitcher. While Mederos is listed at 6'4" and 215 pounds, Rosario is a very slim 6'1" and 165 pounds. He lives off his fastball, which sits in the mid 90's, has registered as high as 99, and gets good running action to the arm side. His secondary pitches are more of a work in progress, with a slider and a splitter that he's still working to differentiate. Believe it or not, the splitter is actually ahead of the slider, an above average pitch at its best, and he needs to refine his slider to look less like his splitter, not the other way around. Because of his slight frame and unrefined arsenal, he faces significant reliever questions in pro ball, though I think he'll definitely be able to start at least in college. Maybe not right off the bat, as I think Mederos has a better shot to crack the rotation as a freshman than Rosario does, but he's athletic, repeats his delivery well, and throws enough strikes to make it work. Throw in the easy gas and the splitter/slider thing, and he'll miss tons of bats in the ACC. During his time in Miami, if he can refine those secondary pitches and perhaps bulk up a little bit, his electric right arm could be really enticing for teams early in the 2023 draft. Pre-draft profile here.
5. RHP/SS/QB Cade Horton (my draft rank: 70)
Norman HS [OK] -> Oklahoma
A quarterback/baseball player heading to Oklahoma? Cade Horton is harkening back to Kyler Murray with that combination, but he's not quite the prospect Murray was in either sport. Horton won't have to go far for school, staying in his hometown of Norman, just south of Oklahoma City. Not only his he a two-sport star, but he's actually set to play both ways on the diamond as well. Most scouts prefer him as a pitcher, and I'd have to agree with that. Horton is a 6'2" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding an above average slider that could end up a plus pitch if he adds some power to it. As with most high school pitchers, his changeup requires some imagination, but it's there. As you might expect from a quarterback, he's a good athlete with a durable frame that should lend itself well to starting. There is a lot of baseline ability there to project on, and once (if) he gives up hitting and quarterbacking, he could take some big steps forward. Oklahoma lost its entire weekend rotation in Cade Cavalli (Nationals, first round), Levi Prater (Cardinals, third round), and Dane Acker (A's, fourth round), plus reliever Zack Matthews (Astros, undrafted), so Horton should have every chance to jump into the rotation from day one. Pre-draft profile here.
6. LHP Ricky Tiedemann (my draft rank: 75)
Lakewood HS [CA] ->San Diego State Long Beach CC
Ricky Tiedemann was previously committed to pitch at San Diego State, but after effectively pricing himself out of the draft, he'll head to Long Beach Community College to be eligible right away for the 2021 draft. Personally, I think this could pay off big time for the Los Angeles-area native. Tiedemann has an extremely projectable, extremely athletic 6'4" frame that screams future projection. He has a really loose right arm and an easy, natural operation as well, giving his coaches at LBCC a lot to work with. For now, the fastball sits around 90, but I could easily see him adding significant velocity in the future, perhaps even in his freshman year at LBCC. His changeup is his best pitch for now with great fading action, giving him a reliable offspeed. He has a slider, but it's below average at this point and will need significant refinement. It's really easy to envision Tiedemann getting a lot, a lot better, so even marginal improvement in 2021 could seriously help his draft stock. If he adds a tick or two to his fastball or refines that slider to an average or above average pitch, that should move him into top 50 consideration, and doing both could make him a first rounder. Another plus in Tiedemann's profile is his age, because like Carson Montgomery, he won't turn 18 until August, making him the age of a slightly old high school senior by the time the 2021 draft rolls around. Pre-draft profile here.
7. RHP Tanner Witt (my draft rank: 87)
Episcopal HS [TX] -> Texas
The University of Texas had a recruiting class filled with big draft names, but ultimately saw Carson Tucker (Indians, first round), Jared Jones (Pirates, second round), Jared Kelley (White Sox, second round), and Petey Halpin (Indians, third round) go in the top 100 picks. In losing four huge recruits to the draft, Longhorns fans can take solace in that they got one really good pitcher to price himself out. Like Tiedemann, he's about projectability more than anything else, but there is a lot of present ability too. Witt is a towering 6'6" righty out of Houston with a fastball that sits around 90 for the most part, but this spring he added a tick of velocity and sat in the low 90's, reaching back for as much as 95. While that increased velocity was only present for a short time before the shutdown, it was expected anyways and he has a chance to really tack it on in Austin. His curve has some nice depth to it and is an average to above average pitch at present, but again, it's easy to see him adding power as he fills out, which would make it a plus pitch. He also throws a slider and a changeup, which are fairly raw for now but which show promise and could develop into above average pitches in time. He throws strikes and repeats his delivery well, giving him plenty of starter traits to work on. Witt is very much the kind of pitcher that can show up on campus a lanky freshman and come out a bona fide ace, and he could make my #87 ranking look silly three years from now. Additionally, he's young for the class with a July birthday and will also be hitting at UT, where he could surprise some of us with his raw power. Between Witt and rising sophomore Trey Faltine, the Longhorns have two legitimate two-way prospects, though Faltine did not pitch as a freshman. Pre-draft profile here.
8. RHP Ty Floyd (my draft rank: 98)
Rockmart HS [GA] -> Louisiana State
Only the second player on this list, following Ryan Hagenow (Tennessee -> Kentucky), to leave his home state for college, Ty Floyd takes some imagination to project on. Growing up just past the Atlanta suburbs, Floyd is a 6'2" righty with a really loose arm that can run his fastball up to 95. He sits more in the low 90's during his starts, but he does have a tendency to dip a bit later on. He throws a curveball and a changeup that are both pretty raw, though the curve shows promise with nice shape down in the zone. Really, scouts are projecting on the looseness of Floyd's operation and his innate athleticism more than his present ability, and the LSU coaching staff will have some work to do when he arrives on campus. They're returning most of their pitching staff after only losing Cole Henry (Nationals, second round) to the draft, so Floyd is more likely to be a bullpen arm as a freshman, but once guys like Jaden Hill, Landon Marceaux, and AJ Labas presumably get drafted next year, Floyd has a shot to jump into the rotation as a sophomore. By the time he's a junior, if he refines his game into what scouts believe he's capable of, we could have a really exciting arm. There is probably more relief risk than most of the other names on this list, though, and Floyd has a pretty wide range of potential outcomes. Pre-draft profile here.
9. RHP Cam Brown (my draft rank: 111)
Flower Mound HS [TX] -> Texas Christian
Cam Brown had a great summer that put him firmly in top 50 conversations, and a strong spring could have further moved him up boards into first round consideration. However, his spring moved him in the opposite direction, and he'll make the short drive down I-35W to TCU to try to rebuild his stock. At his best over the summer, Brown showed a low to mid 90's fastball that played up due to some crossfire in his delivery, in addition to an above average slider and a solid changeup. However, this spring, the velocity ticked down closer to 90 and his slider looked like a below average to average pitch, and overall he just didn't look like a natural pitcher. At TCU, he has a chance to prove that his brief spring was just a minor blip, and a strong freshman season in 2021 could be enough to completely erase the bad taste in scouts' mouthes. As a 6'3" righty with a durable frame and three potential above average pitches, he has plenty of starter traits and could emerge a first round pick in 2023. At the same time, he still does have to go out and prove it. Scouts will be watching his Horned Frogs career closely to see his progression, as will I with TCU just down the road in Fort Worth.
10. LHP Mason Miller (my draft rank: 113)
Mitchell HS [FL] -> Florida Gulf Coast
Aside from the community college-bound Ricky Tiedemann, all of the previous names in this class are committed to premium baseball programs like Miami, Florida State, and Louisiana State, but Mason Miller is headed to a smaller program in Florida Gulf Coast. There, he'll hope to follow in the footsteps of fellow lefty Chris Sale, the school's biggest name ever. Miller teamed with Reds competitive balance pick Jackson Miller (no relation) at Mitchell High School just north of Tampa, and while he had a shot to go in the fourth or fifth round based on a really nice projection profile. As a 6'3" lefty, his name was already circled on scouts' lists, and a velocity bump this spring that pushed his fastball to around 90 miles per hour really put him on the map. Aside from being a scout's dream as a 6'3" lefty, his best attribute is a potentially plus curveball that gets really high spin rates and can really bring tremendous bite. It's inconsistent for now as he learns to harness its power, but the potential is there. Lastly, his changeup needs projection and could develop in any number of directions. Miller comes from a low three quarters arm slot that puts some nice angle on the ball, but he can yank the ball sometimes and it also makes it tougher for him to stay on top of his big curveball. At FGCU, he'll need to focus on adding more velocity, which should come naturally given his frame, as well as getting more consistent with those secondary pitches. He has a chance to crack the Eagles' rotation right out of the gate, and his game could grow pretty steadily during his time in Fort Myers.
11. LHP Nick Griffin (my draft rank: 119)
Monticello HS [AR] -> Arkansas
As with Texas, Arkansas' fantastic recruiting class got looted during the draft with Masyn Winn (Cardinals, second round), Markevian Hence (Cardinals, competitive balance round), and David Calabrese (Angels, third round) signing pro contracts. Nick Griffin (Monticello) will join fellow small town Arkansan Cayden Wallace (Greenbrier) as major 2020 draft prospects to head to Fayetteville, where he will look to develop into a star. Personally, he reminds me of another name as a high schooler, and Razorbacks fans will really like this one: Asa Lacy. I really, really liked Lacy coming out of high school in Texas in 2017 (and if you read my work, you're probably sick of me bragging about it), and I feel the same way about Griffin. He's a 6'4" lefty with a really loose, really athletic delivery that just screams projection. For now, his fastball sits around 90 but can bump up to 94 at times, and he figures to continuously add velocity as he fills out that frame. There is a slider as well that can be an above average pitch at times, and he adds a curveball and changeup that are pretty nascent. Everything about his game is pretty raw, but I think the Arkansas coaching staff is getting something really exciting to work with. In addition to the projectable frame, loose arm, and great body for pitching, he's relatively young for the class with a June birthday, and he's trending in the right direction. Arkansas is so loaded with talent that he probably won't crack the rotation right away, but he has a chance to follow an Asa Lacy-like rise to stardom. How's that for a prospect?
12. RHP Patrick Reilly (my draft rank: 128)
Christian Brothers HS [NJ] -> Vanderbilt
How would this list be complete without a Vanderbilt arm? In each of the past two seasons, they've landed massive recruits on the mound in Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, and while they lost their top two incoming hitters this year in Robert Hassell (Padres, first round) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (Mets, first round), they did land their top pitcher in Patrick Reilly. A New Jersey private school product like Leiter, Reilly has much less of a track record than his Garden State counterpart, instead jumping onto the map with a huge showing at the WWBA tournament over the fall. In his one start there, his previously fringy fastball sat easily in the low to mid 90's and topped out at 96, while he showed a true power curve that looked plus at its best. Reilly packs a ton of strength into his 6'4" frame that enabled his velocity gains, though aside from that exciting start in the fall, scouts hadn't seen enough of him at the increased velocity to buy him out of that Vanderbilt commitment. It will be really tough to work into that absolutely loaded rotation, especially as a freshman, but once Rocker and Leiter go in the top five picks in 2021, he'll likely have his shot. At Vanderbilt, competing for innings can be just as tough as proving yourself to evaluators, but there is no better place to go and refine his game.
Others (by pre-draft rank):
133. RHP Jason Savacool, Baker HS [NY] -> Maryland
136. LHP Timmy Manning, Cardinal Gibbons HS [FL] -> Florida
157. RHP TJ Nichols, Oakmont HS [CA] -> Arizona
160. RHP Marquis Grissom Jr., Counterpane HS [GA] -> Georgia Tech
Unranked: RHP Max Rajcic, Orange Lutheran HS [CA] -> UCLA
1. RHP Carson Montgomery (my draft rank: 39)
Windermere HS [FL] -> Florida State
The top player on my rankings to go undrafted, Carson Montgomery is set to jump into a Florida State rotation that lost CJ Van Eyk (Blue Jays, second round) and Shane Drohan (Red Sox, fifth round) as well as Antonio Velez (Marlins, undrafted) out of the bullpen. Van Eyk and Drohan were big draft names in their own right out of high school in 2017, ranking 107th and 118th on my draft list that year, so bringing on blue chip recruits is nothing new for FSU. Montgomery is a 6'2" right hander with plenty of room to grow into his frame, and his extremely loose right arm makes him even more projectable. For now, he has a low 90's fastball that he can run up to 96, and he's working on maintaining that velocity a little better. His best secondary pitch is an inconsistent slider that can flash plus at its best, and he throws a sneaky good changeup that he doesn't use as often. His command is fairly inconsistent as well, but he's very young for an incoming freshman and won't even turn 18 until August. Montgomery might need a little bit of refinement throughout his freshman year but I imagine that by the time he's a sophomore, he'll be a true ace for the Seminoles. Pre-draft profile here.
2. RHP Ryan Hagenow (my draft rank: 52)
Farragut HS [TN] -> Kentucky
I took a bit of a gamble on Ryan Hagenow, who ranked 52nd on my list but 68th on MLB Pipeline and 194th on Baseball America. I really like his upside though, and I have a feeling he's going to spend his three years in Lexington and turn into a monster. He's an uber-projectable 6'5" righty out of the Knoxville area who has a lot to work on, but I think he has a lot going for him as well. His fastball velocity isn't quite there yet, sitting around 90 for the most part and topping out around 93, but his loose arm puts nice movement on the pitch and portends to future velocity gains. His slider is average for now, flattening out at times but also showing some nice depth down in the zone when he gets it right. Adding some power and consistency in college could make it a plus pitch. To me, his best pitch right now is his changeup, with great fading action to the arm side. He does a decent job of throwing strikes, but he needs to smoothen out his delivery a little bit, which I believe he will. I love the way his arms and legs work in his delivery and he could easily add 20-30 pounds at school, which should help him add power to his fastball and slider. In a best case scenario, I could really see him coming out for the 2023 draft with three plus pitches and a starter's frame, which would easily put him in the first round. There's a long way to go, and I don't think he'll slot directly into Kentucky's weekend rotation right away, but he is relatively young for the class with a June birthday and I have a good feeling about him. Pre-draft profile here.
3. RHP Victor Mederos (my draft rank: 57)
Westminster Christian HS [FL] -> Miami
Miami did a fantastic job of holding its talented recruiting class together, and it's a good thing because they lost their entire weekend rotation in Slade Cecconi (Diamondbacks, comp round), Chris McMahon (Rockies, second round), and Brian Van Belle (Red Sox, undrafted), plus reliever Tyler Keysor (Reds, undrafted). Headlining the incoming recruits, at least as far as my list goes, is Victor Mederos, a Cuban-born pitcher who fled the country with his mother and brother when he was six years old and settled in Miami. The big 6'4" righty has as strong an arm as anyone in this class, sitting in the low to mid 90's with a fastball he can run up to 96. He has two breaking balls in a curveball and a slider that can flash plus, with the former showing great depth and power at times and the latter coming in with harder velocity. There is a solid changeup as well, and Mederos aggressively attacks hitters with all four, though the two breaking balls can blend into each other at times. That aggressiveness can hurt him more than it helps him at times, with a tendency to overthrow and lose his arm slot and therefore strike zone. He does have the innate strike throwing ability to be successful in that area, and all he really needs to do is stay within himself more. Miami is getting a really exciting, high-octane arm who could develop into an impact starter, though with a June birthday that makes him old for the class, he'll be eligible again for the 2022 draft as a sophomore. Pre-draft profile here.
4. RHP Alejandro Rosario (my draft rank: 67)
Miami Christian HS [FL] -> Miami
Joining Mederos in that future Hurricanes rotation will be fellow Miami native Alejandro Rosario, though he's a very different pitcher. While Mederos is listed at 6'4" and 215 pounds, Rosario is a very slim 6'1" and 165 pounds. He lives off his fastball, which sits in the mid 90's, has registered as high as 99, and gets good running action to the arm side. His secondary pitches are more of a work in progress, with a slider and a splitter that he's still working to differentiate. Believe it or not, the splitter is actually ahead of the slider, an above average pitch at its best, and he needs to refine his slider to look less like his splitter, not the other way around. Because of his slight frame and unrefined arsenal, he faces significant reliever questions in pro ball, though I think he'll definitely be able to start at least in college. Maybe not right off the bat, as I think Mederos has a better shot to crack the rotation as a freshman than Rosario does, but he's athletic, repeats his delivery well, and throws enough strikes to make it work. Throw in the easy gas and the splitter/slider thing, and he'll miss tons of bats in the ACC. During his time in Miami, if he can refine those secondary pitches and perhaps bulk up a little bit, his electric right arm could be really enticing for teams early in the 2023 draft. Pre-draft profile here.
5. RHP/SS/QB Cade Horton (my draft rank: 70)
Norman HS [OK] -> Oklahoma
A quarterback/baseball player heading to Oklahoma? Cade Horton is harkening back to Kyler Murray with that combination, but he's not quite the prospect Murray was in either sport. Horton won't have to go far for school, staying in his hometown of Norman, just south of Oklahoma City. Not only his he a two-sport star, but he's actually set to play both ways on the diamond as well. Most scouts prefer him as a pitcher, and I'd have to agree with that. Horton is a 6'2" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding an above average slider that could end up a plus pitch if he adds some power to it. As with most high school pitchers, his changeup requires some imagination, but it's there. As you might expect from a quarterback, he's a good athlete with a durable frame that should lend itself well to starting. There is a lot of baseline ability there to project on, and once (if) he gives up hitting and quarterbacking, he could take some big steps forward. Oklahoma lost its entire weekend rotation in Cade Cavalli (Nationals, first round), Levi Prater (Cardinals, third round), and Dane Acker (A's, fourth round), plus reliever Zack Matthews (Astros, undrafted), so Horton should have every chance to jump into the rotation from day one. Pre-draft profile here.
6. LHP Ricky Tiedemann (my draft rank: 75)
Lakewood HS [CA] ->
Ricky Tiedemann was previously committed to pitch at San Diego State, but after effectively pricing himself out of the draft, he'll head to Long Beach Community College to be eligible right away for the 2021 draft. Personally, I think this could pay off big time for the Los Angeles-area native. Tiedemann has an extremely projectable, extremely athletic 6'4" frame that screams future projection. He has a really loose right arm and an easy, natural operation as well, giving his coaches at LBCC a lot to work with. For now, the fastball sits around 90, but I could easily see him adding significant velocity in the future, perhaps even in his freshman year at LBCC. His changeup is his best pitch for now with great fading action, giving him a reliable offspeed. He has a slider, but it's below average at this point and will need significant refinement. It's really easy to envision Tiedemann getting a lot, a lot better, so even marginal improvement in 2021 could seriously help his draft stock. If he adds a tick or two to his fastball or refines that slider to an average or above average pitch, that should move him into top 50 consideration, and doing both could make him a first rounder. Another plus in Tiedemann's profile is his age, because like Carson Montgomery, he won't turn 18 until August, making him the age of a slightly old high school senior by the time the 2021 draft rolls around. Pre-draft profile here.
7. RHP Tanner Witt (my draft rank: 87)
Episcopal HS [TX] -> Texas
The University of Texas had a recruiting class filled with big draft names, but ultimately saw Carson Tucker (Indians, first round), Jared Jones (Pirates, second round), Jared Kelley (White Sox, second round), and Petey Halpin (Indians, third round) go in the top 100 picks. In losing four huge recruits to the draft, Longhorns fans can take solace in that they got one really good pitcher to price himself out. Like Tiedemann, he's about projectability more than anything else, but there is a lot of present ability too. Witt is a towering 6'6" righty out of Houston with a fastball that sits around 90 for the most part, but this spring he added a tick of velocity and sat in the low 90's, reaching back for as much as 95. While that increased velocity was only present for a short time before the shutdown, it was expected anyways and he has a chance to really tack it on in Austin. His curve has some nice depth to it and is an average to above average pitch at present, but again, it's easy to see him adding power as he fills out, which would make it a plus pitch. He also throws a slider and a changeup, which are fairly raw for now but which show promise and could develop into above average pitches in time. He throws strikes and repeats his delivery well, giving him plenty of starter traits to work on. Witt is very much the kind of pitcher that can show up on campus a lanky freshman and come out a bona fide ace, and he could make my #87 ranking look silly three years from now. Additionally, he's young for the class with a July birthday and will also be hitting at UT, where he could surprise some of us with his raw power. Between Witt and rising sophomore Trey Faltine, the Longhorns have two legitimate two-way prospects, though Faltine did not pitch as a freshman. Pre-draft profile here.
8. RHP Ty Floyd (my draft rank: 98)
Rockmart HS [GA] -> Louisiana State
Only the second player on this list, following Ryan Hagenow (Tennessee -> Kentucky), to leave his home state for college, Ty Floyd takes some imagination to project on. Growing up just past the Atlanta suburbs, Floyd is a 6'2" righty with a really loose arm that can run his fastball up to 95. He sits more in the low 90's during his starts, but he does have a tendency to dip a bit later on. He throws a curveball and a changeup that are both pretty raw, though the curve shows promise with nice shape down in the zone. Really, scouts are projecting on the looseness of Floyd's operation and his innate athleticism more than his present ability, and the LSU coaching staff will have some work to do when he arrives on campus. They're returning most of their pitching staff after only losing Cole Henry (Nationals, second round) to the draft, so Floyd is more likely to be a bullpen arm as a freshman, but once guys like Jaden Hill, Landon Marceaux, and AJ Labas presumably get drafted next year, Floyd has a shot to jump into the rotation as a sophomore. By the time he's a junior, if he refines his game into what scouts believe he's capable of, we could have a really exciting arm. There is probably more relief risk than most of the other names on this list, though, and Floyd has a pretty wide range of potential outcomes. Pre-draft profile here.
9. RHP Cam Brown (my draft rank: 111)
Flower Mound HS [TX] -> Texas Christian
Cam Brown had a great summer that put him firmly in top 50 conversations, and a strong spring could have further moved him up boards into first round consideration. However, his spring moved him in the opposite direction, and he'll make the short drive down I-35W to TCU to try to rebuild his stock. At his best over the summer, Brown showed a low to mid 90's fastball that played up due to some crossfire in his delivery, in addition to an above average slider and a solid changeup. However, this spring, the velocity ticked down closer to 90 and his slider looked like a below average to average pitch, and overall he just didn't look like a natural pitcher. At TCU, he has a chance to prove that his brief spring was just a minor blip, and a strong freshman season in 2021 could be enough to completely erase the bad taste in scouts' mouthes. As a 6'3" righty with a durable frame and three potential above average pitches, he has plenty of starter traits and could emerge a first round pick in 2023. At the same time, he still does have to go out and prove it. Scouts will be watching his Horned Frogs career closely to see his progression, as will I with TCU just down the road in Fort Worth.
10. LHP Mason Miller (my draft rank: 113)
Mitchell HS [FL] -> Florida Gulf Coast
Aside from the community college-bound Ricky Tiedemann, all of the previous names in this class are committed to premium baseball programs like Miami, Florida State, and Louisiana State, but Mason Miller is headed to a smaller program in Florida Gulf Coast. There, he'll hope to follow in the footsteps of fellow lefty Chris Sale, the school's biggest name ever. Miller teamed with Reds competitive balance pick Jackson Miller (no relation) at Mitchell High School just north of Tampa, and while he had a shot to go in the fourth or fifth round based on a really nice projection profile. As a 6'3" lefty, his name was already circled on scouts' lists, and a velocity bump this spring that pushed his fastball to around 90 miles per hour really put him on the map. Aside from being a scout's dream as a 6'3" lefty, his best attribute is a potentially plus curveball that gets really high spin rates and can really bring tremendous bite. It's inconsistent for now as he learns to harness its power, but the potential is there. Lastly, his changeup needs projection and could develop in any number of directions. Miller comes from a low three quarters arm slot that puts some nice angle on the ball, but he can yank the ball sometimes and it also makes it tougher for him to stay on top of his big curveball. At FGCU, he'll need to focus on adding more velocity, which should come naturally given his frame, as well as getting more consistent with those secondary pitches. He has a chance to crack the Eagles' rotation right out of the gate, and his game could grow pretty steadily during his time in Fort Myers.
11. LHP Nick Griffin (my draft rank: 119)
Monticello HS [AR] -> Arkansas
As with Texas, Arkansas' fantastic recruiting class got looted during the draft with Masyn Winn (Cardinals, second round), Markevian Hence (Cardinals, competitive balance round), and David Calabrese (Angels, third round) signing pro contracts. Nick Griffin (Monticello) will join fellow small town Arkansan Cayden Wallace (Greenbrier) as major 2020 draft prospects to head to Fayetteville, where he will look to develop into a star. Personally, he reminds me of another name as a high schooler, and Razorbacks fans will really like this one: Asa Lacy. I really, really liked Lacy coming out of high school in Texas in 2017 (and if you read my work, you're probably sick of me bragging about it), and I feel the same way about Griffin. He's a 6'4" lefty with a really loose, really athletic delivery that just screams projection. For now, his fastball sits around 90 but can bump up to 94 at times, and he figures to continuously add velocity as he fills out that frame. There is a slider as well that can be an above average pitch at times, and he adds a curveball and changeup that are pretty nascent. Everything about his game is pretty raw, but I think the Arkansas coaching staff is getting something really exciting to work with. In addition to the projectable frame, loose arm, and great body for pitching, he's relatively young for the class with a June birthday, and he's trending in the right direction. Arkansas is so loaded with talent that he probably won't crack the rotation right away, but he has a chance to follow an Asa Lacy-like rise to stardom. How's that for a prospect?
12. RHP Patrick Reilly (my draft rank: 128)
Christian Brothers HS [NJ] -> Vanderbilt
How would this list be complete without a Vanderbilt arm? In each of the past two seasons, they've landed massive recruits on the mound in Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, and while they lost their top two incoming hitters this year in Robert Hassell (Padres, first round) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (Mets, first round), they did land their top pitcher in Patrick Reilly. A New Jersey private school product like Leiter, Reilly has much less of a track record than his Garden State counterpart, instead jumping onto the map with a huge showing at the WWBA tournament over the fall. In his one start there, his previously fringy fastball sat easily in the low to mid 90's and topped out at 96, while he showed a true power curve that looked plus at its best. Reilly packs a ton of strength into his 6'4" frame that enabled his velocity gains, though aside from that exciting start in the fall, scouts hadn't seen enough of him at the increased velocity to buy him out of that Vanderbilt commitment. It will be really tough to work into that absolutely loaded rotation, especially as a freshman, but once Rocker and Leiter go in the top five picks in 2021, he'll likely have his shot. At Vanderbilt, competing for innings can be just as tough as proving yourself to evaluators, but there is no better place to go and refine his game.
Others (by pre-draft rank):
133. RHP Jason Savacool, Baker HS [NY] -> Maryland
136. LHP Timmy Manning, Cardinal Gibbons HS [FL] -> Florida
157. RHP TJ Nichols, Oakmont HS [CA] -> Arizona
160. RHP Marquis Grissom Jr., Counterpane HS [GA] -> Georgia Tech
Unranked: RHP Max Rajcic, Orange Lutheran HS [CA] -> UCLA
Thursday, July 23, 2020
2020 Draft: Top 10 Undrafted College Players
Every year, a couple highly regarded college prospects here and there decide to stick around an extra year, most recently guys like Mississippi State's Jake Mangum and LSU's Zach Watson and Zack Hess. This year, it obviously happened to a lot more guys, so we'll have a ton of high level talent not only heading to campus, but returning to campus next year. Below I walk through the top college prospects on my draft list to go undrafted and return to school.
Nine out of ten names are pitchers, which is a testament to the incredible depth of college pitching in this year's class. It wasn't just that run we saw in the back half of the first round (Jarvis, Cavalli, Shuster, Miller, etc.), but a truly deep class that went well past the top 100 names. With so many options available, teams didn't have to take risks on upside plays like Tommy Mace or Gavin Williams, and these kids decided to return to school to bet on themselves. Guys like Williams, Brandon Birdsell, and Trenton Denholm will still be age-appropriate come draft day, though many others will be older than their competition and Mason Erla will be a few months shy of his 24th birthday by the time the 2021 draft rolls around.
1. RHP Tommy Mace, Florida (my rank: 69)
Florida had two pitchers with draft aspirations in the shortened 2020 draft, but both Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich elected to return to school. Mace was the top college player on my list to go undrafted, with the chance to have gone as high as the second round. He was a well known draft prospect coming out of high school in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, a classic projection right hander as a 6'6" beanpole. Three years later, he's made some incremental progress, but Mace clearly believes (he would prefer the verb "knows") he has more in the tank. His fastball sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96, while his cutter/slider hybrid is an effective, above average offspeed pitch and his changeup gives him a third reliable offering. It's a fairly ordinary package, but there is still a lot of projection left in his lanky frame and his stuff has steadily gotten sharper throughout his career with the Gators. After putting up a 4.85 ERA and a 119/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.1 innings over his first two seasons, he improved to a 1.67 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings this year, including an excellent outing against a very tough Miami lineup. As a slightly above average strike thrower, he's not nearly as raw as most projection arms, and his competitive nature helps him significantly. He'll return as the ace of one of the best rotations in college baseball next year with Leftwich and rising-sophomore Hunter Barco, perhaps second behind only Vanderbilt's one-two punch of Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. Mace could have easily pitched his way into the top 50 picks with a strong run through SEC play this year, so he'll hope to do that next year. Pre-draft profile here.
2. RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina (my rank: 74)
Gavin Williams, like Tommy Mace, was a projectable 6'6" high school arm in 2017, hailing from Fayetteville, North Carolina. He hasn't made quite as much progress as Mace during his time at East Carolina, having only thrown 68 innings for the Pirates with a 3.57 ERA and a 70/32 strikeout to walk ratio along the way. That said, he's also eight months younger and won't be much older than most of the regular juniors next year. He throws a premium mid 90's fastball that can touch triple digits in shorter stints, and with his now-filled-out 6'6", 240 pound frame, that velocity comes out pretty naturally. He adds a big, slow curveball in the low to mid 70's, one with great shape but which needs to add power. There's an above average changeup as well, which rounds out his arsenal nicely. The command is sort of shaky, but it's not terrible, and he really hasn't been on the mound all that much anyways. More consistent innings in the ECU rotation next year could do wonders for his stock, and I could see him pitching himself into the top 50 picks pretty easily with a strong stint in the rotation. He probably projects as a reliever, but the upside is certainly there and I wouldn't rule him out as a starter if he makes the necessary adjustments. One big thing he could do would be to add power to that curveball, which he is certainly capable of with his arm strength. Pre-draft profile here.
3. LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State (my rank: 78)
Seth Lonsway marks a third straight pitcher who was a big name for the 2017 draft out of high school. Lonsway grew up in Celina, Ohio, a small town just off the Indiana border, and after sitting out the 2018 season, he's become a mainstay in the Buckeyes rotation. This year, he put up one of the most unique stat lines in college baseball, holding a 3.00 ERA and striking out 42 batters in just 18 innings (more than half of those he faced!) but also walked 18 in that same span, including eight in his final start against Stetson. Lonsway has an electric left arm that sits in the low to mid 90's on his fastball, getting up to 96 with relative ease. He adds a power curveball that misses bats in bunches, as well as a more lateral slider and a solid changeup. The ball explodes out of his hand and has completely confounded college hitters, but he really struggles to repeat his release point and that has led to massive command struggles. By walking eight in his final start, he didn't give pro teams much confidence he could fix that, and he's betting on himself by going back for his redshirt junior season. If his command struggles continue, teams will be more convinced that he's a reliever and he could fall out of the top 100 picks, but even cutting his walk rate to perhaps 4.5 per nine could do wonders in proving he can start. Aside from his command, really, there's no reason to believe he can't. And Ohio State will love to have him back because the Big Ten can't handle the stuff. Pre-draft profile here.
4. RHP Kevin Abel, Oregon State (my rank: 82)
This one makes a lot of sense, because Kevin Abel has barely pitched since his freshman season and there were rumors he was considering returning to Corvallis even before the draft was shortened to five rounds. If you're a college baseball fan, then you definitely recognize this name, because Abel went 5-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 41/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, knocking down LSU, Washington, Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Arkansas again in order. In that last start against the Razorbacks, he tossed a compete game, two hit, ten strikeout shutout to take home the National Championship. That was all as a true freshman, but he went down with Tommy John surgery 16.1 innings into his sophomore season in 2019 and we haven't seen him since. Now, we'll be able to see Abel again (pun intended) in orange and black, and fans in Corvallis couldn't be more excited. The last time we saw him throw, the San Diego native sat in the low 90's with his fastball and added an above average curveball and a plus fading changeup, and for a freshman, he commanded it all pretty well. With natural, healthy progression, it's easy to see him having above average command at this point, but of course he's been rehabbing instead, so it's hard to say where that command is today. Either way, with a very solid three pitch mix, a 6'2" frame, and plenty of big game experience, he'll be in a great position to lead Oregon State's rotation next year. Adding a little bit of power to his curveball, which stands out more for its depth than any kind of hard bite, in addition to taking that step forward with his command, would make him a great mid-rotation starting prospect. While the three names ahead of Abel on this list have a fairly wide range of outcomes, I see Abel as the most straightforward despite the injury. Pre-draft profile here.
5. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech (my rank: 114)
Technically, Brandon Birdsell isn't "returning" to Texas Tech because he's coming from San Jacinto CC, where he joined Cubs fourth rounder Luke Little and Nationals fifth rounder Mitchell Parker on an insanely talented pitching staff. Having lost Clayton Beeter (Dodgers, competitive balance round), Bryce Bonnin (Reds, third round), and John McMillon (Royals, undrafted free agent) from last year's pitching staff, Texas Tech will get a needed boost from bringing on Birdsell. What he lacks in track record, he makes up for in projectable starter traits, and I guess teams wanted to see him prove them in Lubbock (or he bet on himself to prove them beyond teams' expectations). His velocity has crept up throughout his college career and was the highest it's ever been in his final start of the 2020 season, where he sat in the mid 90's. He showed a loopy slider in high school outside of Houston that had some nice depth but lacked any sort of power, but he's tightened it up really well and it looks like an above average pitch at its best. With a projectable, durable 6'2" frame, a clean delivery, and solid strike throwing ability, he's really gathering his starter traits together nicely and Texas Tech will look to help him continue on that upward trend. Unlike the other names on this list, he'll be a junior next year rather than a senior, so he'll fit right in with other college arms age-wise. With a full season of success in the Red Raiders rotation, Birdsell could have his stock in a much stronger place a year from now.
6. RHP Trenton Denholm, UC-Irvine (my rank: 120)
This is probably the first one on the list where I'd expect it was more a product of the short draft than him wanting to bet on himself and pricing himself out. Had their been a sixth round, my guess is Trenton Denholm would have been drafted. The Sacramento-area native is a really fun pitcher to watch, and he's been productive too with a 1.90 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 118/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings for UCI over the past two seasons. Sure, the Anteaters play in a relatively pitcher-friendly park and don't have the toughest schedule around, but Denholm has been perhaps even more impressive over two seasons in the elite Cape Cod League: 32.2 innings, one unearned run, and a 41/10 strikeout to walk ratio. Undersized at a skinny 5'11", he makes up for average stuff with an extremely competitive demeanor on the mound and a willingness to attack hitters with everything he has. He throws his fastball in the low 90's, topping out around 93, adding two solid breaking balls in a curveball and a slider. His changeup is perhaps his best pitch with nice fading action, but his stuff really works best when he's locating it well. The good news is he possesses the above average command to make it work, though it's hard to see him adding much more velocity. If he can get a slight velocity bump in 2021, that would help push him more into the top 100 picks, though his undersized frame and lack of a true strikeout pitch probably push him into a long relief role. I wouldn't bet against him though because he's shown the ability to get everything out of what he has, and with a really late birthday that makes him the age of a rising junior rather than the rising senior he is, he'll be fun to track in 2021.
7. OF Parker Chavers, Coastal Carolina (my rank: 126)
After six pitchers, we finally get to our first position player. Parker Chavers (great baseball name) raked for two seasons at Coastal Carolina, slashing .319/.435/.554 with 22 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 101/78 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games from 2018-2019. The Montgomery, Alabama native also homered seven times while slashing .274/.354/.478 over 44 games against top pitching in the Cape Cod League over the summer, setting himself up for a big 2020 season. However, shoulder surgery meant that didn't happen, and Chanticleers fans thought they had seen the last of him when the season shut down. Now, he'll bring his potent bat back to Conway for the 2021 season. He's a tooled up outfielder who stands out most for his above average raw power, a product of natural athleticism and strength despite a smaller 5'11" frame. There's plus speed as well, though it plays more as above average on the field because his game is raw overall. He has some strikeout concerns that were more evident against top pitching on the Cape than they were against a relatively ordinary Sun Belt schedule, and his base running and defense are in need of more refinement. Chavers has a great opportunity to get that done in 2021, but he was already pretty old for a college junior this year and he'll be nearly 23 by the time the next draft roles around. If he doesn't refine his overall game significantly by then, Chavers will be much more of a day two money saver than a true top 100 prospect.
8. LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia (my rank: 127)
Back to the mound, Andrew Abbott is the first true reliever on this list. A product of Virginia's rural Southside region, Abbott has been UVA's part-time closer over the past three seasons, putting up a 3.24 ERA and a 165/49 strikeout to walk ratio and nine saves across 108.1 innings. With an uptempo delivery, a smaller frame, shaky command, and a two pitch arsenal, there is very little chance he gets to start in pro ball, so he'll head back to Charlottesville to prove he can be a sure-thing type of arm. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95 and brings a plus curveball from the left side, which helped him strike out 28 batters in 13.1 innings in 2020. Abbott is aggressive with his pitches and attacks the zone with a bulldog, closer mentality, but he struggles to locate his pitches consistently and that gives him below average command despite that willingness to pitch in the zone. In that sense, he's a lot like Burl Carraway-lite, though Carraway's fastball is a little faster and his curve is a little sharper. He's relatively young for a college junior and will only turn 22 around draft time, so he won't be that old, but sharpening his command a little bit will definitely be key in keeping himself in the top tier of relief prospects given the extra development time.
9. RHP Carson Seymour, Kansas State (my rank: 129)
This is a clear case where going back to school could really help, or really hurt, your draft stock. Carson Seymour grew up in Southern California but began his career at Dartmouth, then transferred halfway back across the country to Kansas State, where he'll stay put. Seymour is a big 6'5", 250 pound righty with very little track record to speak of, instead enticing scouts with his arm strength and one great final start in which he tossed six shutout innings (one unearned run) with nine strikeouts against Stanford. His best pitch is a low to mid 90's fastball that he has run up to 99 in the past, adding an inconsistent slider and curveball that can flatten out at times and look like above average to plus pitches at others. He definitely has the build to start, but his command is even more inconsistent than his secondary pitches and he throws with a fair amount of effort. Seymour was hoping that strong Stanford start could be the start of a big run through Big 12 play, which was badly needed given his lack of a track record, but scouts weren't comfortable with an unproven arm with just 28 college innings to show. He'll head back to Manhattan (Manhattan, Kansas that is) to refine his game a bit more, which is certainly possible given the lack of mileage he has on his arm.
10. RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (my rank: 146)
Mason Erla is definitely going to be an interesting one, because he's almost 23 already and will be coming up on 24 by the time the 2021 draft rolls around. Erla has been a solid but unspectacular arm throughout his career at Michigan State, but an uptick in velocity in 2020 led to a 1.04 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings, albeit against a relatively weaker schedule. The 6'4" righty comes from a low three quarters arm slot and now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a solid average slider and changeup to go along with it. With solid average command as well, he has enough starter traits to make it work, and could be a big league starting pitcher if a drafting team is willing to be patient. It's not that he'll take a long time to work his way up, it's just that he'll be almost 24 and might not hit the big leagues until he's 26 or 27. Erla probably fits better as a reliever anyways due to a lack of a true strikeout pitch, and he could move much quicker in that role. Either way, 2021 will be about proving his newfound velocity is for real and building off those four strong starts in the 2020 season.
Others:
3B Jamal O'Guinn, Southern California (my rank: 154)
RHP Jack Leftwich, Florida (my rank: 155)
SS Luke Waddell, Georgia Tech (my rank: 159)
LHP Ryan Webb, Georgia (unranked)
C Casey Opitz, Arkansas (unranked)
Nine out of ten names are pitchers, which is a testament to the incredible depth of college pitching in this year's class. It wasn't just that run we saw in the back half of the first round (Jarvis, Cavalli, Shuster, Miller, etc.), but a truly deep class that went well past the top 100 names. With so many options available, teams didn't have to take risks on upside plays like Tommy Mace or Gavin Williams, and these kids decided to return to school to bet on themselves. Guys like Williams, Brandon Birdsell, and Trenton Denholm will still be age-appropriate come draft day, though many others will be older than their competition and Mason Erla will be a few months shy of his 24th birthday by the time the 2021 draft rolls around.
1. RHP Tommy Mace, Florida (my rank: 69)
Florida had two pitchers with draft aspirations in the shortened 2020 draft, but both Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich elected to return to school. Mace was the top college player on my list to go undrafted, with the chance to have gone as high as the second round. He was a well known draft prospect coming out of high school in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, a classic projection right hander as a 6'6" beanpole. Three years later, he's made some incremental progress, but Mace clearly believes (he would prefer the verb "knows") he has more in the tank. His fastball sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96, while his cutter/slider hybrid is an effective, above average offspeed pitch and his changeup gives him a third reliable offering. It's a fairly ordinary package, but there is still a lot of projection left in his lanky frame and his stuff has steadily gotten sharper throughout his career with the Gators. After putting up a 4.85 ERA and a 119/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.1 innings over his first two seasons, he improved to a 1.67 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings this year, including an excellent outing against a very tough Miami lineup. As a slightly above average strike thrower, he's not nearly as raw as most projection arms, and his competitive nature helps him significantly. He'll return as the ace of one of the best rotations in college baseball next year with Leftwich and rising-sophomore Hunter Barco, perhaps second behind only Vanderbilt's one-two punch of Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. Mace could have easily pitched his way into the top 50 picks with a strong run through SEC play this year, so he'll hope to do that next year. Pre-draft profile here.
2. RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina (my rank: 74)
Gavin Williams, like Tommy Mace, was a projectable 6'6" high school arm in 2017, hailing from Fayetteville, North Carolina. He hasn't made quite as much progress as Mace during his time at East Carolina, having only thrown 68 innings for the Pirates with a 3.57 ERA and a 70/32 strikeout to walk ratio along the way. That said, he's also eight months younger and won't be much older than most of the regular juniors next year. He throws a premium mid 90's fastball that can touch triple digits in shorter stints, and with his now-filled-out 6'6", 240 pound frame, that velocity comes out pretty naturally. He adds a big, slow curveball in the low to mid 70's, one with great shape but which needs to add power. There's an above average changeup as well, which rounds out his arsenal nicely. The command is sort of shaky, but it's not terrible, and he really hasn't been on the mound all that much anyways. More consistent innings in the ECU rotation next year could do wonders for his stock, and I could see him pitching himself into the top 50 picks pretty easily with a strong stint in the rotation. He probably projects as a reliever, but the upside is certainly there and I wouldn't rule him out as a starter if he makes the necessary adjustments. One big thing he could do would be to add power to that curveball, which he is certainly capable of with his arm strength. Pre-draft profile here.
3. LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State (my rank: 78)
Seth Lonsway marks a third straight pitcher who was a big name for the 2017 draft out of high school. Lonsway grew up in Celina, Ohio, a small town just off the Indiana border, and after sitting out the 2018 season, he's become a mainstay in the Buckeyes rotation. This year, he put up one of the most unique stat lines in college baseball, holding a 3.00 ERA and striking out 42 batters in just 18 innings (more than half of those he faced!) but also walked 18 in that same span, including eight in his final start against Stetson. Lonsway has an electric left arm that sits in the low to mid 90's on his fastball, getting up to 96 with relative ease. He adds a power curveball that misses bats in bunches, as well as a more lateral slider and a solid changeup. The ball explodes out of his hand and has completely confounded college hitters, but he really struggles to repeat his release point and that has led to massive command struggles. By walking eight in his final start, he didn't give pro teams much confidence he could fix that, and he's betting on himself by going back for his redshirt junior season. If his command struggles continue, teams will be more convinced that he's a reliever and he could fall out of the top 100 picks, but even cutting his walk rate to perhaps 4.5 per nine could do wonders in proving he can start. Aside from his command, really, there's no reason to believe he can't. And Ohio State will love to have him back because the Big Ten can't handle the stuff. Pre-draft profile here.
4. RHP Kevin Abel, Oregon State (my rank: 82)
This one makes a lot of sense, because Kevin Abel has barely pitched since his freshman season and there were rumors he was considering returning to Corvallis even before the draft was shortened to five rounds. If you're a college baseball fan, then you definitely recognize this name, because Abel went 5-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 41/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, knocking down LSU, Washington, Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Arkansas again in order. In that last start against the Razorbacks, he tossed a compete game, two hit, ten strikeout shutout to take home the National Championship. That was all as a true freshman, but he went down with Tommy John surgery 16.1 innings into his sophomore season in 2019 and we haven't seen him since. Now, we'll be able to see Abel again (pun intended) in orange and black, and fans in Corvallis couldn't be more excited. The last time we saw him throw, the San Diego native sat in the low 90's with his fastball and added an above average curveball and a plus fading changeup, and for a freshman, he commanded it all pretty well. With natural, healthy progression, it's easy to see him having above average command at this point, but of course he's been rehabbing instead, so it's hard to say where that command is today. Either way, with a very solid three pitch mix, a 6'2" frame, and plenty of big game experience, he'll be in a great position to lead Oregon State's rotation next year. Adding a little bit of power to his curveball, which stands out more for its depth than any kind of hard bite, in addition to taking that step forward with his command, would make him a great mid-rotation starting prospect. While the three names ahead of Abel on this list have a fairly wide range of outcomes, I see Abel as the most straightforward despite the injury. Pre-draft profile here.
5. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech (my rank: 114)
Technically, Brandon Birdsell isn't "returning" to Texas Tech because he's coming from San Jacinto CC, where he joined Cubs fourth rounder Luke Little and Nationals fifth rounder Mitchell Parker on an insanely talented pitching staff. Having lost Clayton Beeter (Dodgers, competitive balance round), Bryce Bonnin (Reds, third round), and John McMillon (Royals, undrafted free agent) from last year's pitching staff, Texas Tech will get a needed boost from bringing on Birdsell. What he lacks in track record, he makes up for in projectable starter traits, and I guess teams wanted to see him prove them in Lubbock (or he bet on himself to prove them beyond teams' expectations). His velocity has crept up throughout his college career and was the highest it's ever been in his final start of the 2020 season, where he sat in the mid 90's. He showed a loopy slider in high school outside of Houston that had some nice depth but lacked any sort of power, but he's tightened it up really well and it looks like an above average pitch at its best. With a projectable, durable 6'2" frame, a clean delivery, and solid strike throwing ability, he's really gathering his starter traits together nicely and Texas Tech will look to help him continue on that upward trend. Unlike the other names on this list, he'll be a junior next year rather than a senior, so he'll fit right in with other college arms age-wise. With a full season of success in the Red Raiders rotation, Birdsell could have his stock in a much stronger place a year from now.
6. RHP Trenton Denholm, UC-Irvine (my rank: 120)
This is probably the first one on the list where I'd expect it was more a product of the short draft than him wanting to bet on himself and pricing himself out. Had their been a sixth round, my guess is Trenton Denholm would have been drafted. The Sacramento-area native is a really fun pitcher to watch, and he's been productive too with a 1.90 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 118/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings for UCI over the past two seasons. Sure, the Anteaters play in a relatively pitcher-friendly park and don't have the toughest schedule around, but Denholm has been perhaps even more impressive over two seasons in the elite Cape Cod League: 32.2 innings, one unearned run, and a 41/10 strikeout to walk ratio. Undersized at a skinny 5'11", he makes up for average stuff with an extremely competitive demeanor on the mound and a willingness to attack hitters with everything he has. He throws his fastball in the low 90's, topping out around 93, adding two solid breaking balls in a curveball and a slider. His changeup is perhaps his best pitch with nice fading action, but his stuff really works best when he's locating it well. The good news is he possesses the above average command to make it work, though it's hard to see him adding much more velocity. If he can get a slight velocity bump in 2021, that would help push him more into the top 100 picks, though his undersized frame and lack of a true strikeout pitch probably push him into a long relief role. I wouldn't bet against him though because he's shown the ability to get everything out of what he has, and with a really late birthday that makes him the age of a rising junior rather than the rising senior he is, he'll be fun to track in 2021.
7. OF Parker Chavers, Coastal Carolina (my rank: 126)
After six pitchers, we finally get to our first position player. Parker Chavers (great baseball name) raked for two seasons at Coastal Carolina, slashing .319/.435/.554 with 22 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 101/78 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games from 2018-2019. The Montgomery, Alabama native also homered seven times while slashing .274/.354/.478 over 44 games against top pitching in the Cape Cod League over the summer, setting himself up for a big 2020 season. However, shoulder surgery meant that didn't happen, and Chanticleers fans thought they had seen the last of him when the season shut down. Now, he'll bring his potent bat back to Conway for the 2021 season. He's a tooled up outfielder who stands out most for his above average raw power, a product of natural athleticism and strength despite a smaller 5'11" frame. There's plus speed as well, though it plays more as above average on the field because his game is raw overall. He has some strikeout concerns that were more evident against top pitching on the Cape than they were against a relatively ordinary Sun Belt schedule, and his base running and defense are in need of more refinement. Chavers has a great opportunity to get that done in 2021, but he was already pretty old for a college junior this year and he'll be nearly 23 by the time the next draft roles around. If he doesn't refine his overall game significantly by then, Chavers will be much more of a day two money saver than a true top 100 prospect.
8. LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia (my rank: 127)
Back to the mound, Andrew Abbott is the first true reliever on this list. A product of Virginia's rural Southside region, Abbott has been UVA's part-time closer over the past three seasons, putting up a 3.24 ERA and a 165/49 strikeout to walk ratio and nine saves across 108.1 innings. With an uptempo delivery, a smaller frame, shaky command, and a two pitch arsenal, there is very little chance he gets to start in pro ball, so he'll head back to Charlottesville to prove he can be a sure-thing type of arm. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95 and brings a plus curveball from the left side, which helped him strike out 28 batters in 13.1 innings in 2020. Abbott is aggressive with his pitches and attacks the zone with a bulldog, closer mentality, but he struggles to locate his pitches consistently and that gives him below average command despite that willingness to pitch in the zone. In that sense, he's a lot like Burl Carraway-lite, though Carraway's fastball is a little faster and his curve is a little sharper. He's relatively young for a college junior and will only turn 22 around draft time, so he won't be that old, but sharpening his command a little bit will definitely be key in keeping himself in the top tier of relief prospects given the extra development time.
9. RHP Carson Seymour, Kansas State (my rank: 129)
This is a clear case where going back to school could really help, or really hurt, your draft stock. Carson Seymour grew up in Southern California but began his career at Dartmouth, then transferred halfway back across the country to Kansas State, where he'll stay put. Seymour is a big 6'5", 250 pound righty with very little track record to speak of, instead enticing scouts with his arm strength and one great final start in which he tossed six shutout innings (one unearned run) with nine strikeouts against Stanford. His best pitch is a low to mid 90's fastball that he has run up to 99 in the past, adding an inconsistent slider and curveball that can flatten out at times and look like above average to plus pitches at others. He definitely has the build to start, but his command is even more inconsistent than his secondary pitches and he throws with a fair amount of effort. Seymour was hoping that strong Stanford start could be the start of a big run through Big 12 play, which was badly needed given his lack of a track record, but scouts weren't comfortable with an unproven arm with just 28 college innings to show. He'll head back to Manhattan (Manhattan, Kansas that is) to refine his game a bit more, which is certainly possible given the lack of mileage he has on his arm.
10. RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (my rank: 146)
Mason Erla is definitely going to be an interesting one, because he's almost 23 already and will be coming up on 24 by the time the 2021 draft rolls around. Erla has been a solid but unspectacular arm throughout his career at Michigan State, but an uptick in velocity in 2020 led to a 1.04 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings, albeit against a relatively weaker schedule. The 6'4" righty comes from a low three quarters arm slot and now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a solid average slider and changeup to go along with it. With solid average command as well, he has enough starter traits to make it work, and could be a big league starting pitcher if a drafting team is willing to be patient. It's not that he'll take a long time to work his way up, it's just that he'll be almost 24 and might not hit the big leagues until he's 26 or 27. Erla probably fits better as a reliever anyways due to a lack of a true strikeout pitch, and he could move much quicker in that role. Either way, 2021 will be about proving his newfound velocity is for real and building off those four strong starts in the 2020 season.
Others:
3B Jamal O'Guinn, Southern California (my rank: 154)
RHP Jack Leftwich, Florida (my rank: 155)
SS Luke Waddell, Georgia Tech (my rank: 159)
LHP Ryan Webb, Georgia (unranked)
C Casey Opitz, Arkansas (unranked)
Tuesday, July 21, 2020
2020 Draft Review: Detroit Tigers
1-1: 1B Spencer Torkelson, Arizona State
2-38: C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State
CBB-62: OF Daniel Cabrera, Louisiana State
3-73: SS Trei Cruz, Rice
4-102: 3B Gage Workman, Arizona State
5-132: 3B Colt Keith, Biloxi HS (MS)
I love this class for the Tigers, and not just because of Spencer Torkelson. With a very pitching-heavy farm system led by guys like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning, the Tigers picked up six bats (five college) to help balance it out, and they were aggressive about it. In spending more than $600,000 above their bonus pool, they were able to max out the amount of talent they could pull in without losing future draft picks, which to me is absolutely the right move considering the draft is by far the most cost-effective way to acquire talent. The Orioles and Mariners underspent their bonus pools and came away with missed opportunities, while the Tigers, like the Blue Jays, put themselves in a really good position. Of course I love Torkelson's bat, but the class goes beyond that. Dillon Dingler in the second round was a steal, as was Daniel Cabrera in the second competitive balance round, and I love that the Tigers were willing to go over slot to get each of their last four picks. They finished it off with Colt Keith, who to me is the bargain of the draft, not just the bargain of the class.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-1: 1B Spencer Torkelson, Arizona State (my rank: 1)
Spencer Torkelson is the first college first baseman ever to go first overall, and with good reason. Typically, teams try to get up the middle players in this spot to minimize risk, but the Sonoma County, California native is the best amateur hitter on the planet and the Tigers did the right thing by bringing him on. He has put up absolutely unreal numbers during his time at Arizona State, slashing .337/.463/.729 with 54 home runs and a 104/110 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games, earning the Barry Bonds treatment with 31 walks in just 17 games in 2020. He also tore up the elite Cape Cod League in 2018 (.343/.474/.733, 10 HR) when he was just 18 years old, driving home the point. With Torkelson, we're talking true plus-plus raw and game power that plays against high level pitching, against velocity, quality breaking balls, and with wood bats. He can easily drive the ball out to any field with a combination of huge natural strength and a very quick bat that deploys that strength very efficiently. If you took away all of his power, you could still confidently call Tork a plus contact hitter because of how easily he finds the barrel. Throw in that he's very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until August, and you have the complete package as a hitter. It's an MVP caliber bat that projects similarly to Pete Alonso as a realistic median projection, and the ceiling is as high as you'd like it to be. Because he was a part of the best infield in college baseball at Arizona State, the Sun Devils never really considered playing him anywhere but first base, but he's naturally athletic and the Tigers have been trying him out at third base here and there in summer camp. Does he stick there? Maybe with some work, but if I'm the Tigers, unless I truly believe in his defense at the hot corner, I'm not messing with it and I'm just letting him hit his way to the big leagues. Even at first base, he should provide value as an above average defender there. His roughly $8.42 million signing bonus was $1,100 above slot value and broke Adley Rutschman's record by more than $300,000. Pre-draft profile here.
2-38: C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (my rank: 32)
Many Michigan fans are probably having a hard time coming to terms with having to root for Ohio State's catcher, but it's okay, the Cleveland Indians signed Michigan catcher Joe Donovan in the undrafted free agent market so it's a fair swap. And Dingler is such a great talent that Michigan fans will be able to get over it sooner or later. He grew up in North Canton, Ohio, and was more solid than spectacular over his first two seasons with the Buckeyes, slashing .267/.362/.396 with seven home runs in 102 games. However, evaluators always had a feeling there was more in the tank and it all came out at once in his last two games in Ohio State red, blasting four home runs in ten at bats against North Florida. Suddenly, he went from a safe backup catcher profile to a legitimate starting catching prospect. He has plenty of natural raw power in his 6'3" frame that he's now learning how to tap, and that's on top of a very professional approach at the plate that enables him to control the strike zone very well. Dingler has routinely been noted for his athleticism behind the plate, with the ability to quickly pounce on baseballs in the dirt and easily move side to side to block wild pitches. With a quick transfer and a strong arm, he projects to not only stay behind the plate but be above average in that regard. Sure, Dingler's actual track record of hitting at a high level is short, but he's hit at a satisfactory level for a long time and the Tigers believe they're catching him right on the upswing. Either way, the bar for catcher offense is very low, so even if he regresses more to his pre-2020 form, he still has a very good shot at playing every day. That's a really nice floor when you consider the upside of a 20-25 home run bat (perhaps more) with good on-base percentages, which would place him in the top couple of catchers in the league. His $1.95 million signing bonus was right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
CBB-62: OF Daniel Cabrera, Louisiana State (my rank: 37)
Given the existence of the LSU, Auburn, Missouri, Clemson, Mempis, and Princeton Tigers, just to name a few, odds were that somebody would go Tigers to Tigers in this draft. That guy was LSU's Daniel Cabrera, and the Detroit Tigers couldn't be happier to get him this late in the draft. Cabrera was a well-known draft prospect coming out of the Baton Rouge high school ranks in 2017, but his high bonus demands meant that he stayed home to play at LSU, coming out the other end more or less a similar prospect. Over three years with the Tigers, he slashed .305/.392/.518 with 22 home runs and a 102/72 strikeout to walk ratio in 140 games, including a hot .345/.466/.500 start to the 2020 season. I mentioned that Dingler has a professional approach at the plate, but Cabrera's approach is his calling card. He makes very consistent contact with a clean left handed swing, managing the strike zone very well against top competition. While there isn't a ton of power in his 6'1" frame, he uses what he has well and drives the ball around the field very consistently, running into his share of home runs here and there. On the other side of the ball, he's an ordinary defender who fits in left field. Cabrera isn't the flashiest prospect, but he's a high probability big leaguer with a very good chance to end up a full time starter, projecting for perhaps 15-20 home runs a year and high on-base percentages. He signed for $1.21 million, about $110,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
3-73: SS Trei Cruz, Rice (my rank: 141)
Out of the Tigers' six picks, I think this was the one that left most evaluators, myself included, scratching their heads a little bit. I don't hate it or anything, but I'm not going to jump and immediately endorse it like I am with their other five picks. Trei Cruz is hoping to join his grandfather Jose Cruz (1970-1988) and father Jose Cruz Jr. (1997-2008), who combined to play 3,741 major league games and hit 369 home runs in the majors. Trei is old for his class and was eligible as a sophomore last year, but wanted to return to Rice for his junior season and it looks like that paid off for him. Over three years, he hit .296/.406/.484 with 16 home runs and a 127/93 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games for the Owls. Proponents look at Cruz and see a wide array of skills that will serve him well in pro ball, while detractors might see that same skill set as a "jack of all trades, master of none" profile that could cause him to wind up as a tweener. He has a lot of wiry strength in his 6'2" frame that produces solid raw power, while his strong plate discipline enables him to put up pretty consistent numbers wherever he goes. A switch hitter, the swings are a little bit funky from both sides of the plate, and while he usually gets his hands in a good hitting position by the time he starts his swing, he can get caught in between and that causes some minor swing and miss. It's a similar story on the other side of the ball. He shows good feel for playing the infield, but his range is a little stretched at shortstop and he might be forced to second or third base down the road. Together, it's a lot of "solid, but" in his overall profile: solid raw power, solid plate discipline but some minor mechanical hitches, solid defense but limited range. The Tigers clearly see this as an opportunity, and they think if he can take a step forward in just one or two areas, they'll have themselves a legitimate major leaguer. I do think something will have to tangibly improve though if he wants to be more than a decent utility infielder. Cruz signed for $900,000, which was $42,600 above slot value.
4-102: 3B Gage Workman, Arizona State (my rank: 59)
I mentioned that Spencer Torkelson was part of the best infield in college baseball and had no need to try anywhere else. Gage Workman was a big reason why Torkelson was confined to first base, with an above average glove at third base. Workman graduated from high school in the Phoenix area a year early with plans for going on his Mormon mission, but I guess that never materialized because he played three years at Arizona State and is now a Detroit Tiger. He had a big sophomore season with a .330/.413/.528 slash line, eight home runs, and a 68/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, and a solid run through the Cape Cod League set him up as a potential top 50 pick heading into 2020. However, he was a bit more up and down with a .250/.316/.471 line, three home runs, and a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games in 2020, and that gave his stock a bit of a market correction down to more of the second/third round range. Workman shows nice raw power from both sides of the plate, albeit a little more from the left side. At 6'4", he projects to add more as he grows into his frame, and he's young enough to get smoother with that right handed swing as well. He has a very aggressive approach at the plate that limits his offensive production at times, though he's very athletic and still makes a lot of hard contact anyways. His glove is above average and makes him a very valuable defender at third base, one who can easily handle additional ground in the shift, and he might even be able to slide to shortstop if needed in a pinch. It's a little more projection than you typically want to do with a college bat, but he won't turn 21 until October and is therefore the age of a college sophomore, and his combination of strength and athleticism gives him a lot of upside. At best, perhaps 25-30 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, and that's why the Tigers paid $1 million for him, about $428,600 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
5-132: 3B Colt Keith, Biloxi HS, MS (my rank: 64)
The Tigers finished out their draft class with a player who, in my opinion, is one of the biggest steals in the draft. Colt Keith grew up in Arizona but moved to Mississippi's Gulf Coast before his junior season of high school. He was one of the top two-way players in the country, but it looks like the Tigers are drafting him as a hitter only, and in my opinion that is the right move. Keith is a very well rounded hitter who makes very consistent contact from the left side, with a great track record of hitting against high level competition. Not just a contact hitter, he has a lot of wiry strength in his 6'3" frame and has begun to tap more power, looking average in that regard now but easily projecting for above average power down the line. His swing is pretty short and he doesn't get a ton of extension, but his hands are very quick and generate a lot of force without much wasted movement. Helping him get his arms extended a bit more consistently could help him tap even more power, and the combination of mechanical tweaks and added strength could land him with plus power down the line. That's definitely an optimistic projection and probably more of his ceiling than most likely outcome, but it's certainly a possibility and he does have that above average hit tool to go with it. He's played shortstop in high school and handled it adequately, though the Tigers see him moving over to third base and working to be above average there, much like fourth rounder Gage Workman. As a pitcher who can hit 93 on the gun, his arm is certainly an asset. He's a little bit old for the class with an August birthday, though giving up pitching should help him make up for some of that time. Keith was committed to Arizona State (like Torkelson and Workman) and I was very surprised to hear he signed for just $500,000, which was $73,400 above slot value. Huge bargain. Pre-draft profile here.
Undrafted: 1B Trevin Esquerra, Loyola Marymount (unranked)
Trevin Esquerra is a first baseman/outfielder out of Loyola Marymount, and he's an interesting athlete as both a switch hitter and a switch thrower, though he just sticks to throwing left handed these days. He broke out for the Lions as a junior last year and kept hitting this year as a senior, combining for a .314/.388/.595 slash line, 19 home runs, and an 86/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games over the last two seasons. He generates a lot of leverage with his 6'1" frame that plays into above average power in games, though his swing is a little smoother from the left side and can get long on the right side. There is also a lot of swing and miss in his game, hampered by an aggressive approach for most of his college career. He was more patient in 2020 and drew 14 walks in 16 games, but the swing and miss was still there as he struck out 20 times. Since he won't provide much defensive value, the San Diego native probably projects as a part time player who can come up with some power off the bench.
Undrafted: OF Austin Langworthy, Florida (unranked)
College baseball fans will recognize this name immediately. Austin Langworthy was never a star, but he appeared in 198 games for the Florida Gators over four years and has already teamed with dozens of pros like Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Jonathan India, and Alex Faedo. He was at his best from 2018-2019, when he hit .286/.384/.449 with 14 home runs and an 86/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games, though he was off to a slower .246/.316/.348 start in 2020. Langworthy has a quick left handed swing that sprays line drives from gap to gap, though at 5'11", there isn't a ton of home run power. He's not the toolsiest player and probably makes for a better college profile than pro profile, but he has a chance to work his way up as a fourth or fifth outfielder with a wide array of skills.
2-38: C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State
CBB-62: OF Daniel Cabrera, Louisiana State
3-73: SS Trei Cruz, Rice
4-102: 3B Gage Workman, Arizona State
5-132: 3B Colt Keith, Biloxi HS (MS)
I love this class for the Tigers, and not just because of Spencer Torkelson. With a very pitching-heavy farm system led by guys like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning, the Tigers picked up six bats (five college) to help balance it out, and they were aggressive about it. In spending more than $600,000 above their bonus pool, they were able to max out the amount of talent they could pull in without losing future draft picks, which to me is absolutely the right move considering the draft is by far the most cost-effective way to acquire talent. The Orioles and Mariners underspent their bonus pools and came away with missed opportunities, while the Tigers, like the Blue Jays, put themselves in a really good position. Of course I love Torkelson's bat, but the class goes beyond that. Dillon Dingler in the second round was a steal, as was Daniel Cabrera in the second competitive balance round, and I love that the Tigers were willing to go over slot to get each of their last four picks. They finished it off with Colt Keith, who to me is the bargain of the draft, not just the bargain of the class.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-1: 1B Spencer Torkelson, Arizona State (my rank: 1)
Spencer Torkelson is the first college first baseman ever to go first overall, and with good reason. Typically, teams try to get up the middle players in this spot to minimize risk, but the Sonoma County, California native is the best amateur hitter on the planet and the Tigers did the right thing by bringing him on. He has put up absolutely unreal numbers during his time at Arizona State, slashing .337/.463/.729 with 54 home runs and a 104/110 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games, earning the Barry Bonds treatment with 31 walks in just 17 games in 2020. He also tore up the elite Cape Cod League in 2018 (.343/.474/.733, 10 HR) when he was just 18 years old, driving home the point. With Torkelson, we're talking true plus-plus raw and game power that plays against high level pitching, against velocity, quality breaking balls, and with wood bats. He can easily drive the ball out to any field with a combination of huge natural strength and a very quick bat that deploys that strength very efficiently. If you took away all of his power, you could still confidently call Tork a plus contact hitter because of how easily he finds the barrel. Throw in that he's very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until August, and you have the complete package as a hitter. It's an MVP caliber bat that projects similarly to Pete Alonso as a realistic median projection, and the ceiling is as high as you'd like it to be. Because he was a part of the best infield in college baseball at Arizona State, the Sun Devils never really considered playing him anywhere but first base, but he's naturally athletic and the Tigers have been trying him out at third base here and there in summer camp. Does he stick there? Maybe with some work, but if I'm the Tigers, unless I truly believe in his defense at the hot corner, I'm not messing with it and I'm just letting him hit his way to the big leagues. Even at first base, he should provide value as an above average defender there. His roughly $8.42 million signing bonus was $1,100 above slot value and broke Adley Rutschman's record by more than $300,000. Pre-draft profile here.
2-38: C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (my rank: 32)
Many Michigan fans are probably having a hard time coming to terms with having to root for Ohio State's catcher, but it's okay, the Cleveland Indians signed Michigan catcher Joe Donovan in the undrafted free agent market so it's a fair swap. And Dingler is such a great talent that Michigan fans will be able to get over it sooner or later. He grew up in North Canton, Ohio, and was more solid than spectacular over his first two seasons with the Buckeyes, slashing .267/.362/.396 with seven home runs in 102 games. However, evaluators always had a feeling there was more in the tank and it all came out at once in his last two games in Ohio State red, blasting four home runs in ten at bats against North Florida. Suddenly, he went from a safe backup catcher profile to a legitimate starting catching prospect. He has plenty of natural raw power in his 6'3" frame that he's now learning how to tap, and that's on top of a very professional approach at the plate that enables him to control the strike zone very well. Dingler has routinely been noted for his athleticism behind the plate, with the ability to quickly pounce on baseballs in the dirt and easily move side to side to block wild pitches. With a quick transfer and a strong arm, he projects to not only stay behind the plate but be above average in that regard. Sure, Dingler's actual track record of hitting at a high level is short, but he's hit at a satisfactory level for a long time and the Tigers believe they're catching him right on the upswing. Either way, the bar for catcher offense is very low, so even if he regresses more to his pre-2020 form, he still has a very good shot at playing every day. That's a really nice floor when you consider the upside of a 20-25 home run bat (perhaps more) with good on-base percentages, which would place him in the top couple of catchers in the league. His $1.95 million signing bonus was right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
CBB-62: OF Daniel Cabrera, Louisiana State (my rank: 37)
Given the existence of the LSU, Auburn, Missouri, Clemson, Mempis, and Princeton Tigers, just to name a few, odds were that somebody would go Tigers to Tigers in this draft. That guy was LSU's Daniel Cabrera, and the Detroit Tigers couldn't be happier to get him this late in the draft. Cabrera was a well-known draft prospect coming out of the Baton Rouge high school ranks in 2017, but his high bonus demands meant that he stayed home to play at LSU, coming out the other end more or less a similar prospect. Over three years with the Tigers, he slashed .305/.392/.518 with 22 home runs and a 102/72 strikeout to walk ratio in 140 games, including a hot .345/.466/.500 start to the 2020 season. I mentioned that Dingler has a professional approach at the plate, but Cabrera's approach is his calling card. He makes very consistent contact with a clean left handed swing, managing the strike zone very well against top competition. While there isn't a ton of power in his 6'1" frame, he uses what he has well and drives the ball around the field very consistently, running into his share of home runs here and there. On the other side of the ball, he's an ordinary defender who fits in left field. Cabrera isn't the flashiest prospect, but he's a high probability big leaguer with a very good chance to end up a full time starter, projecting for perhaps 15-20 home runs a year and high on-base percentages. He signed for $1.21 million, about $110,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
3-73: SS Trei Cruz, Rice (my rank: 141)
Out of the Tigers' six picks, I think this was the one that left most evaluators, myself included, scratching their heads a little bit. I don't hate it or anything, but I'm not going to jump and immediately endorse it like I am with their other five picks. Trei Cruz is hoping to join his grandfather Jose Cruz (1970-1988) and father Jose Cruz Jr. (1997-2008), who combined to play 3,741 major league games and hit 369 home runs in the majors. Trei is old for his class and was eligible as a sophomore last year, but wanted to return to Rice for his junior season and it looks like that paid off for him. Over three years, he hit .296/.406/.484 with 16 home runs and a 127/93 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games for the Owls. Proponents look at Cruz and see a wide array of skills that will serve him well in pro ball, while detractors might see that same skill set as a "jack of all trades, master of none" profile that could cause him to wind up as a tweener. He has a lot of wiry strength in his 6'2" frame that produces solid raw power, while his strong plate discipline enables him to put up pretty consistent numbers wherever he goes. A switch hitter, the swings are a little bit funky from both sides of the plate, and while he usually gets his hands in a good hitting position by the time he starts his swing, he can get caught in between and that causes some minor swing and miss. It's a similar story on the other side of the ball. He shows good feel for playing the infield, but his range is a little stretched at shortstop and he might be forced to second or third base down the road. Together, it's a lot of "solid, but" in his overall profile: solid raw power, solid plate discipline but some minor mechanical hitches, solid defense but limited range. The Tigers clearly see this as an opportunity, and they think if he can take a step forward in just one or two areas, they'll have themselves a legitimate major leaguer. I do think something will have to tangibly improve though if he wants to be more than a decent utility infielder. Cruz signed for $900,000, which was $42,600 above slot value.
4-102: 3B Gage Workman, Arizona State (my rank: 59)
I mentioned that Spencer Torkelson was part of the best infield in college baseball and had no need to try anywhere else. Gage Workman was a big reason why Torkelson was confined to first base, with an above average glove at third base. Workman graduated from high school in the Phoenix area a year early with plans for going on his Mormon mission, but I guess that never materialized because he played three years at Arizona State and is now a Detroit Tiger. He had a big sophomore season with a .330/.413/.528 slash line, eight home runs, and a 68/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, and a solid run through the Cape Cod League set him up as a potential top 50 pick heading into 2020. However, he was a bit more up and down with a .250/.316/.471 line, three home runs, and a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games in 2020, and that gave his stock a bit of a market correction down to more of the second/third round range. Workman shows nice raw power from both sides of the plate, albeit a little more from the left side. At 6'4", he projects to add more as he grows into his frame, and he's young enough to get smoother with that right handed swing as well. He has a very aggressive approach at the plate that limits his offensive production at times, though he's very athletic and still makes a lot of hard contact anyways. His glove is above average and makes him a very valuable defender at third base, one who can easily handle additional ground in the shift, and he might even be able to slide to shortstop if needed in a pinch. It's a little more projection than you typically want to do with a college bat, but he won't turn 21 until October and is therefore the age of a college sophomore, and his combination of strength and athleticism gives him a lot of upside. At best, perhaps 25-30 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, and that's why the Tigers paid $1 million for him, about $428,600 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
5-132: 3B Colt Keith, Biloxi HS, MS (my rank: 64)
The Tigers finished out their draft class with a player who, in my opinion, is one of the biggest steals in the draft. Colt Keith grew up in Arizona but moved to Mississippi's Gulf Coast before his junior season of high school. He was one of the top two-way players in the country, but it looks like the Tigers are drafting him as a hitter only, and in my opinion that is the right move. Keith is a very well rounded hitter who makes very consistent contact from the left side, with a great track record of hitting against high level competition. Not just a contact hitter, he has a lot of wiry strength in his 6'3" frame and has begun to tap more power, looking average in that regard now but easily projecting for above average power down the line. His swing is pretty short and he doesn't get a ton of extension, but his hands are very quick and generate a lot of force without much wasted movement. Helping him get his arms extended a bit more consistently could help him tap even more power, and the combination of mechanical tweaks and added strength could land him with plus power down the line. That's definitely an optimistic projection and probably more of his ceiling than most likely outcome, but it's certainly a possibility and he does have that above average hit tool to go with it. He's played shortstop in high school and handled it adequately, though the Tigers see him moving over to third base and working to be above average there, much like fourth rounder Gage Workman. As a pitcher who can hit 93 on the gun, his arm is certainly an asset. He's a little bit old for the class with an August birthday, though giving up pitching should help him make up for some of that time. Keith was committed to Arizona State (like Torkelson and Workman) and I was very surprised to hear he signed for just $500,000, which was $73,400 above slot value. Huge bargain. Pre-draft profile here.
Undrafted: 1B Trevin Esquerra, Loyola Marymount (unranked)
Trevin Esquerra is a first baseman/outfielder out of Loyola Marymount, and he's an interesting athlete as both a switch hitter and a switch thrower, though he just sticks to throwing left handed these days. He broke out for the Lions as a junior last year and kept hitting this year as a senior, combining for a .314/.388/.595 slash line, 19 home runs, and an 86/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games over the last two seasons. He generates a lot of leverage with his 6'1" frame that plays into above average power in games, though his swing is a little smoother from the left side and can get long on the right side. There is also a lot of swing and miss in his game, hampered by an aggressive approach for most of his college career. He was more patient in 2020 and drew 14 walks in 16 games, but the swing and miss was still there as he struck out 20 times. Since he won't provide much defensive value, the San Diego native probably projects as a part time player who can come up with some power off the bench.
Undrafted: OF Austin Langworthy, Florida (unranked)
College baseball fans will recognize this name immediately. Austin Langworthy was never a star, but he appeared in 198 games for the Florida Gators over four years and has already teamed with dozens of pros like Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Jonathan India, and Alex Faedo. He was at his best from 2018-2019, when he hit .286/.384/.449 with 14 home runs and an 86/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games, though he was off to a slower .246/.316/.348 start in 2020. Langworthy has a quick left handed swing that sprays line drives from gap to gap, though at 5'11", there isn't a ton of home run power. He's not the toolsiest player and probably makes for a better college profile than pro profile, but he has a chance to work his way up as a fourth or fifth outfielder with a wide array of skills.
Sunday, July 19, 2020
2020 Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles
1-2: OF Heston Kjerstad, Arkansas
CBA-30: SS Jordan Westburg, Mississippi State
2-39: OF Hudson Haskin, Tulane
3-74: SS Anthony Servideo, Mississippi
4-103: 3B Coby Mayo, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)
5-133: RHP Carter Baumler, Dowling Catholic HS (IA)
The Orioles' story is well known at this point. They went way under slot to bring on Heston Kjerstad, a fringe-top ten talent, at second overall, with plans to draft Nick Bitkso at #30. The Rays swooped in and took Bitsko at #24, though, throwing the Orioles' plans for a loop. They could have gone after a guy like Jared Kelley, Cole Wilcox, or JT Ginn at that spot instead, but it looks like they didn't really have a plan B and waited until the back of the draft to go significantly over slot. Personally, I would call this my least favorite class in the draft, just because I feel a team with picks #2, #30, and #39 should have picked up a lot more talent than they did. Coby Mayo and Carter Baumler are nice over slot finds in rounds four and five, but I don't think they nearly justify passing over Austin Martin or Asa Lacy at second overall. I know they didn't plan it to turn out this way, but it had to have been a very realistic probability in their minds. I tend to give teams the benefit of the doubt with their picks because the draft is such a crapshoot, but I think the Orioles blew this one. And that's nothing against Heston Kjerstad – I don't feel like I'm dissing him by saying he clearly was not a top five talent. The Orioles also did not end up spending their entire bonus pool, which to me is a very clear indictment that this didn't work.
On the class itself, it's a bat-heavy class with Baumler being the only pitcher in the class, right at the end of their draft. They went for upside over safe bets here, and while Baumler has actually been noted for his clean delivery, the Orioles seemed to have an affinity for funky swings here. Kjerstad is such a natural hitter that you might not want to mess with what he's got going too much, but Jordan Westburg, Hudson Haskin, and Coby Mayo will almost certainly need swing changes in pro ball. Lastly, the Orioles apparently went for a Southern theme here, grabbing their players out of Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, and Iowa (never mind that last one) in order.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-2: OF Heston Kjerstad, Arkansas (my rank: 12)
I gave my opinion on the Kjerstad situation in the intro, so I don't want to dwell on that here. He's not the second best and definitely not one of the top five or six players in this draft, that's a given, but he's still a very good player and I would be raving about his bat if he was taken six to ten picks later. So I will give him his due as if he were drafted in the range in which he fits. Kjerstad grew up in Amarillo, Texas, and headed west across the plains to Arkansas for school. He has absolutely raked for three years in Fayetteville, slashing .345/.425/.587 with 35 home runs and a 125/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 career games, and that's going up against a lot of really tough SEC pitching staffs. He was off to an even hotter start in 2020 at .448/.513/.791 with six home runs in 16 games, and that's likely what convinced the Orioles he was their under slot guy. Kjerstad possesses huge raw power from the left side that he has absolutely not trouble getting to, blasting home runs with consistency everywhere he's gone. His swing is pretty handsy and his bat path is not ideal, but his elite hand eye coordination enables him to deploy his extremely strong wrists and 6'3" frame into that huge power consistently. In addition to the awkward swing, he's a very aggressive hitter who doesn't draw a ton of walks and strikes out fairly often, and while that's generally a red flag for college bats, Kjerstad has been so productive so consistently and against such good competition that it might not be an issue at all. To me, it's pretty clear that he was born to hit, no matter the peripherals, and he should be an impact bat who can pop 35-40 home runs a year at Camden Yards. He's a decent defender that should be solid in right field or above average in left field, but the bat is 100% the calling card. Kjerstad's $5.2 million signing bonus was about $2.59 million below slot value, much closer to the pick value at #8. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-30: SS Jordan Westburg, Mississippi State (my rank: 43)
I wasn't a huge fan of this Bitsko replacement, but we'll see. Jordan Westburg is another Texan who grew up outside of San Antonio before heading back east to Mississippi State, and he's been a solid hitter with a .298/.408/.468 with eight home runs and an 84/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 games over the last two seasons. He was actually better in the Cape Cod League, where he hit .326/.385/.516 with four home runs, giving us a glimpse of his true upside. Westburg is extremely athletic at 6'3" and shows off above average raw power in addition to above average speed, and his strong Cape line shows that the hit tool isn't completely raw. However, his swing is a bit choppy and his power doesn't really play up in games at this point, so despite only ten career home runs, he has 38 doubles. The athleticism and frame, in addition to his quick hands, give hope that he can start to tap it more with some mechanical adjustments. Westburg also doesn't control the strike zone particularly well, but at least he has a lot of experience facing higher level pitching. An above average runner, he is athletic enough to stick at shortstop, though he does need a little refinement if he wants to stick there full time. He strikes me as a guy who could end up a starting shortstop or second baseman down the line, but one with inconsistent batting lines that fluctuate between very productive and so-so. At best, I see him popping 20-25 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, though he could dip into the teens some years and put up fringier OBP's. The Orioles hope to build him into something that spends more time at the upper end of his projection than the lower end, betting on his Cape line being the real deal. Westburg's $2.37 million signing bonus was right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
2-39: OF Hudson Haskin, Tulane (my rank: 101)
Haskin is a really hard hitter to get a read on, and that's evidenced by the disparity in his rankings: #74 on MLB Pipeline, #101 on my list, and #211 on Baseball America. While it's easy to poke holes in Haskin's profile, it's also very easy to see why the Orioles loved the bat. A New York City native and a product of Avon Old Farms School in Connecticut, Haskin was a full year older than his classmates and was already 20 years old when he began his freshman season at Tulane. He hit the ground running anyways, slashing .363/.457/.612 with 11 home runs and a 39/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games in his short Tulane career, absolutely tormenting AAC pitching along the way. However, watch one video of him hitting, and you'll understand why he's a divisive prospect. He begins from a very upright stance, but his long stride drops his eye level by perhaps a foot and puts him in a really awkward hitting position. His swing itself is quick and powerful, but it's also pretty rigid and it requires him to be right on time and right on target. Haskin's elite hand eye coordination enabled that swing to work exceptionally well for him in college, but pro pitching is another animal. He naturally gets compared to Hunter Pence a lot and I think that's a fair comparison, though Haskin doesn't have quite as much power. Pence proves that a funky swing can work in today's game, and the Orioles are betting on Pence not being a one of a kind player. Personally, I'm a little skeptical and I want to see the Orioles implement some changes to get his head more level and help him stay back a bit better on the ball, but there is no question that he can hit. That feel for hitting will be the key as he moves through the minors. Swing aside, Haskin generates some nice raw power out of his skinny 6'2" frame, but he's probably a little more hit over power if we're splitting hairs. Because he doesn't swing and miss much, he doesn't draw a ton of walks, but nobody out there is questioning his ability to control the strike zone. Defensively, he figures to stick in center field with the necessary speed, range, and arm strength to be an asset out there. Baltimore was all in at the $1.91 million slot value here and bought him out of returning for his junior season.
3-74: SS Anthony Servideo, Mississippi (my rank: 95)
Anthony Servideo is a really interesting one. The South Florida native was solid as a sophomore at Ole Miss (.287/.429/.388, 3 HR), but he absolutely cratered in the Cape Cod League and hit just .149/.277/.228 with a 37/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games. He was viewed as a nice mid round utility infield type heading into the season, but then he busted out and led all Division I baseball players with 51 times on base in the shortened season. Starting with a two hit performance off Angels first rounder Reid Detmers, he slashed .390/.575/.695 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 16/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games, up there as one of the hottest starts by any player this year. The flashy shortstop revealed a power stroke scouts had never seen before from him, albeit often punishing mistake pitches rather than showing true projectable power, and generally made contact with everything in sight while taking his walks when he didn't get hittable pitches. He's a high energy player who, in keeping with Ole Miss shortstop tradition, bleached his long hair blond this year, and Orioles scouts are confident he'll keep up his hot hitting into pro ball. Since he's only 5'10" and shows more game power than raw power, he probably projects for good on-base percentages and perhaps 10-15 home runs a year, though his glove does buy his bat some slack. Servideo is a very good shortstop who will definitely stick at the position, and if he hits enough to start, he'll probably push Jordan Westburg to second or third base. There's a nice floor here as a utility infielder and some upside if the continues to hit for the kind of impact he showed in 2020. He signed for $950,000, which was about $105,800 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
4-103: 3B Coby Mayo, Stoneman Douglas HS, FL (my rank: 107)
This is where the Orioles started using their extra bonus pool money they saved on Kjerstad. Coby Mayo is a power hitting infielder out of Stoneman Douglas High School in South Florida, using the natural strength in his 6'5" frame to drop some really impressive home runs. As you might expect for a power hitting high schooler outside the top 100, though, his hit tool could use some work. There is significant swing and miss in his game, partially stemming from a bit of an awkward swing path where his barrel is not in the zone for long and also just due to the fact that he's young and still needs to grow into his body a little bit more. There are lots of these types of players all over the place, and in this draft the Orioles could have gone for a kid like AJ Vukovich (Diamondbacks 4th round), Kala'i Rosario (Twins fifth round), Yohandy Morales (undrafted), or Cayden Wallace (undrafted). While all of these kids have huge raw power that they haven't proven they can get to, the Orioles must think that some mechanical tweaks are all he needs to shoot forward, and that his hit tool is really only inhibited by the awkward swing. They're also buying strong plate discipline in addition to a flashy, high-confidence style of play that will no doubt be fun to watch down the line. Defensively, Mayo shows an absolute cannon of an arm from third base, but as a bigger guy, he doesn't quite have the range to handle third base, at least not yet. The arm strength will buy the glove opportunities to grow, and perhaps he might not need to be the most agile defender to stick over there, but third basemen are being asked to cover more and more ground nowadays with shifts and it will be an uphill climb. If the mechanical changes prove to be the magic touch for Mayo, then it won't matter where he plays because the power is completely legitimate. Committed to Florida, he signed for $1.75 million, which is front half of the second round money and roughly $1.18 million above slot value.
5-133: RHP Carter Baumler, Dowling Catholic HS, IA (my rank: 147)
Here's the other big over slot deal. As I mentioned in the intro, Baumler is the trend-buster here. He's the only pitcher, the only non-Southerner, and unlike some of the hitters, he actually has very clean mechanics. Iowa isn't the biggest baseball state in the country, but they've quietly produced some solid pitching talent from Jeremy Hellickson and Joel Hanrahan to, more recently, current prospects AJ Puk, TJ Sikkema, and Cardinals 2020 fourth rounder Ian Bedell. Baumler, from Des Moines, is a 6'2" righty with the building blocks to be a future impact starting pitcher. His fastball sits in the low 90's at present, though it dips into the upper 80's more than scouts would like to see at this point. His curveball is probably his best pitch for now, with tight spin and nice depth at times but in need of just a little more consistency, while he doesn't use his changeup as often but it can be a sneaky good pitch. Partly owing to his smooth delivery, he's a solid strike thrower that projects as above average in that regard, and there is some projection remaining in his 6'2" frame. That makes for a fairly ordinary right-now product, but proponents see him needing less development than most high school pitchers and instead only needing to add strength. The stuff is a little bit slight right now, but if he tacks on a few pounds, he could be more consistently in the low 90's with his fastball, perhaps touch the mid 90's more often, and put a little power on that curveball. If he sharpens his command a little bit to above average, that's a really nice mid-rotation starter profile. He's committed to TCU and the Orioles believe that had he followed through, he would have hit the ground running and come out a star on the other end, so they snapped him up here. He hasn't put pen to paper yet but he's reportedly agreed to a $1.5 million bonus, which would be about $1.08 million above slot value. The Orioles have over $1.7 million left in their bonus pool.
Undrafted: RHP Thomas Girard, Duke (unranked)
Girard was high school teammates with second rounder Hudson Haskin at Avon Old Farms School just outside Hartford, Connecticut, and he's been a lights out closer in his sophomore and junior seasons at Duke: 2.58 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 84/19 K/BB in 59.1 innings. He's undersized at 5'11" and has pitched exclusively in relief for the Blue Devils, and that's where he'll stay with a max effort delivery. I haven't been able to find velocity numbers on his fastball, but it plays up coming from that loud delivery that features a lot of moving limbs and head whack, but his best pitch is an above average slider that routinely misses bats. He's done an excellent job of limiting baseunners at Duke and allowed just 32 hits in 59.1 innings over the past two seasons, and despite his max effort delivery, he's a solid average strike thrower. Girard has the opportunity to move quickly in a relief role.
Undrafted: OF Dylan Harris, North Carolina (unranked)
Harris, a native of the Knoxville suburbs, raked for two years at Walters State CC in Tennessee before transferring across the mountains to UNC. With the Tar Heels, he's slashed .266/.406/.465 with eleven home runs and a 47/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 games. Just 5'9", he's been noted for his exceptional strike zone judgement that will aid him significantly in pro ball. He finds the barrel consistently with a compact left handed swing, which led to a fairly ordinary junior year at UNC (.263/.407/.426), but he was driving the ball much more consistently as a senior (.274/.404/.575) and knocked five home runs in 19 games. A good defender who should stick in center field, he'll probably work his way up in a fourth or fifth outfielder capacity, but he has the kind of bat that won't lose much potency when transitioning from the ACC to professional baseball.
Undrafted: 1B J.D. Mundy, Radford (unranked)
I saw a lot of Mundy when he was an underclassman at Virginia Tech, though he slashed a fairly unremarkable .247/.377/.450 with 12 home runs and a 71/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games in those first two seasons. A lack of guaranteed playing time under new head coach John Szefc (pronounced "sheff") lead to him transferring half an hour down Peppers Ferry Road over to Radford, where his bat really came alive. Between his junior and senior seasons, the Roanoke native slashed .323/.425/.606 with 17 home runs and a 58/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games, leaving the Highlanders on a real high note – over his final five games, he went 11-20 with three home runs and 14 RBI against Canisius, George Mason, and Notre Dame. Mundy is on the shorter side for a slugger, standing an even six feet tall, but he packs a lot of strength into that frame and can really drive the ball when he connects. Though his power is more a product of brute strength than of bat speed, he controls the strike zone well with a patient approach that should enable him to handle pro pitching. He'll probably have to get a little bit looser with his swing to handle upper minors pitching, especially since he's a first baseman only who won't provide much value on that side of the ball, but the lefty fits well at Camden Yards and could hit his way into a platoon role.
CBA-30: SS Jordan Westburg, Mississippi State
2-39: OF Hudson Haskin, Tulane
3-74: SS Anthony Servideo, Mississippi
4-103: 3B Coby Mayo, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)
5-133: RHP Carter Baumler, Dowling Catholic HS (IA)
The Orioles' story is well known at this point. They went way under slot to bring on Heston Kjerstad, a fringe-top ten talent, at second overall, with plans to draft Nick Bitkso at #30. The Rays swooped in and took Bitsko at #24, though, throwing the Orioles' plans for a loop. They could have gone after a guy like Jared Kelley, Cole Wilcox, or JT Ginn at that spot instead, but it looks like they didn't really have a plan B and waited until the back of the draft to go significantly over slot. Personally, I would call this my least favorite class in the draft, just because I feel a team with picks #2, #30, and #39 should have picked up a lot more talent than they did. Coby Mayo and Carter Baumler are nice over slot finds in rounds four and five, but I don't think they nearly justify passing over Austin Martin or Asa Lacy at second overall. I know they didn't plan it to turn out this way, but it had to have been a very realistic probability in their minds. I tend to give teams the benefit of the doubt with their picks because the draft is such a crapshoot, but I think the Orioles blew this one. And that's nothing against Heston Kjerstad – I don't feel like I'm dissing him by saying he clearly was not a top five talent. The Orioles also did not end up spending their entire bonus pool, which to me is a very clear indictment that this didn't work.
On the class itself, it's a bat-heavy class with Baumler being the only pitcher in the class, right at the end of their draft. They went for upside over safe bets here, and while Baumler has actually been noted for his clean delivery, the Orioles seemed to have an affinity for funky swings here. Kjerstad is such a natural hitter that you might not want to mess with what he's got going too much, but Jordan Westburg, Hudson Haskin, and Coby Mayo will almost certainly need swing changes in pro ball. Lastly, the Orioles apparently went for a Southern theme here, grabbing their players out of Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, and Iowa (never mind that last one) in order.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-2: OF Heston Kjerstad, Arkansas (my rank: 12)
I gave my opinion on the Kjerstad situation in the intro, so I don't want to dwell on that here. He's not the second best and definitely not one of the top five or six players in this draft, that's a given, but he's still a very good player and I would be raving about his bat if he was taken six to ten picks later. So I will give him his due as if he were drafted in the range in which he fits. Kjerstad grew up in Amarillo, Texas, and headed west across the plains to Arkansas for school. He has absolutely raked for three years in Fayetteville, slashing .345/.425/.587 with 35 home runs and a 125/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 career games, and that's going up against a lot of really tough SEC pitching staffs. He was off to an even hotter start in 2020 at .448/.513/.791 with six home runs in 16 games, and that's likely what convinced the Orioles he was their under slot guy. Kjerstad possesses huge raw power from the left side that he has absolutely not trouble getting to, blasting home runs with consistency everywhere he's gone. His swing is pretty handsy and his bat path is not ideal, but his elite hand eye coordination enables him to deploy his extremely strong wrists and 6'3" frame into that huge power consistently. In addition to the awkward swing, he's a very aggressive hitter who doesn't draw a ton of walks and strikes out fairly often, and while that's generally a red flag for college bats, Kjerstad has been so productive so consistently and against such good competition that it might not be an issue at all. To me, it's pretty clear that he was born to hit, no matter the peripherals, and he should be an impact bat who can pop 35-40 home runs a year at Camden Yards. He's a decent defender that should be solid in right field or above average in left field, but the bat is 100% the calling card. Kjerstad's $5.2 million signing bonus was about $2.59 million below slot value, much closer to the pick value at #8. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-30: SS Jordan Westburg, Mississippi State (my rank: 43)
I wasn't a huge fan of this Bitsko replacement, but we'll see. Jordan Westburg is another Texan who grew up outside of San Antonio before heading back east to Mississippi State, and he's been a solid hitter with a .298/.408/.468 with eight home runs and an 84/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 games over the last two seasons. He was actually better in the Cape Cod League, where he hit .326/.385/.516 with four home runs, giving us a glimpse of his true upside. Westburg is extremely athletic at 6'3" and shows off above average raw power in addition to above average speed, and his strong Cape line shows that the hit tool isn't completely raw. However, his swing is a bit choppy and his power doesn't really play up in games at this point, so despite only ten career home runs, he has 38 doubles. The athleticism and frame, in addition to his quick hands, give hope that he can start to tap it more with some mechanical adjustments. Westburg also doesn't control the strike zone particularly well, but at least he has a lot of experience facing higher level pitching. An above average runner, he is athletic enough to stick at shortstop, though he does need a little refinement if he wants to stick there full time. He strikes me as a guy who could end up a starting shortstop or second baseman down the line, but one with inconsistent batting lines that fluctuate between very productive and so-so. At best, I see him popping 20-25 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, though he could dip into the teens some years and put up fringier OBP's. The Orioles hope to build him into something that spends more time at the upper end of his projection than the lower end, betting on his Cape line being the real deal. Westburg's $2.37 million signing bonus was right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
2-39: OF Hudson Haskin, Tulane (my rank: 101)
Haskin is a really hard hitter to get a read on, and that's evidenced by the disparity in his rankings: #74 on MLB Pipeline, #101 on my list, and #211 on Baseball America. While it's easy to poke holes in Haskin's profile, it's also very easy to see why the Orioles loved the bat. A New York City native and a product of Avon Old Farms School in Connecticut, Haskin was a full year older than his classmates and was already 20 years old when he began his freshman season at Tulane. He hit the ground running anyways, slashing .363/.457/.612 with 11 home runs and a 39/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games in his short Tulane career, absolutely tormenting AAC pitching along the way. However, watch one video of him hitting, and you'll understand why he's a divisive prospect. He begins from a very upright stance, but his long stride drops his eye level by perhaps a foot and puts him in a really awkward hitting position. His swing itself is quick and powerful, but it's also pretty rigid and it requires him to be right on time and right on target. Haskin's elite hand eye coordination enabled that swing to work exceptionally well for him in college, but pro pitching is another animal. He naturally gets compared to Hunter Pence a lot and I think that's a fair comparison, though Haskin doesn't have quite as much power. Pence proves that a funky swing can work in today's game, and the Orioles are betting on Pence not being a one of a kind player. Personally, I'm a little skeptical and I want to see the Orioles implement some changes to get his head more level and help him stay back a bit better on the ball, but there is no question that he can hit. That feel for hitting will be the key as he moves through the minors. Swing aside, Haskin generates some nice raw power out of his skinny 6'2" frame, but he's probably a little more hit over power if we're splitting hairs. Because he doesn't swing and miss much, he doesn't draw a ton of walks, but nobody out there is questioning his ability to control the strike zone. Defensively, he figures to stick in center field with the necessary speed, range, and arm strength to be an asset out there. Baltimore was all in at the $1.91 million slot value here and bought him out of returning for his junior season.
3-74: SS Anthony Servideo, Mississippi (my rank: 95)
Anthony Servideo is a really interesting one. The South Florida native was solid as a sophomore at Ole Miss (.287/.429/.388, 3 HR), but he absolutely cratered in the Cape Cod League and hit just .149/.277/.228 with a 37/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games. He was viewed as a nice mid round utility infield type heading into the season, but then he busted out and led all Division I baseball players with 51 times on base in the shortened season. Starting with a two hit performance off Angels first rounder Reid Detmers, he slashed .390/.575/.695 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 16/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games, up there as one of the hottest starts by any player this year. The flashy shortstop revealed a power stroke scouts had never seen before from him, albeit often punishing mistake pitches rather than showing true projectable power, and generally made contact with everything in sight while taking his walks when he didn't get hittable pitches. He's a high energy player who, in keeping with Ole Miss shortstop tradition, bleached his long hair blond this year, and Orioles scouts are confident he'll keep up his hot hitting into pro ball. Since he's only 5'10" and shows more game power than raw power, he probably projects for good on-base percentages and perhaps 10-15 home runs a year, though his glove does buy his bat some slack. Servideo is a very good shortstop who will definitely stick at the position, and if he hits enough to start, he'll probably push Jordan Westburg to second or third base. There's a nice floor here as a utility infielder and some upside if the continues to hit for the kind of impact he showed in 2020. He signed for $950,000, which was about $105,800 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
4-103: 3B Coby Mayo, Stoneman Douglas HS, FL (my rank: 107)
This is where the Orioles started using their extra bonus pool money they saved on Kjerstad. Coby Mayo is a power hitting infielder out of Stoneman Douglas High School in South Florida, using the natural strength in his 6'5" frame to drop some really impressive home runs. As you might expect for a power hitting high schooler outside the top 100, though, his hit tool could use some work. There is significant swing and miss in his game, partially stemming from a bit of an awkward swing path where his barrel is not in the zone for long and also just due to the fact that he's young and still needs to grow into his body a little bit more. There are lots of these types of players all over the place, and in this draft the Orioles could have gone for a kid like AJ Vukovich (Diamondbacks 4th round), Kala'i Rosario (Twins fifth round), Yohandy Morales (undrafted), or Cayden Wallace (undrafted). While all of these kids have huge raw power that they haven't proven they can get to, the Orioles must think that some mechanical tweaks are all he needs to shoot forward, and that his hit tool is really only inhibited by the awkward swing. They're also buying strong plate discipline in addition to a flashy, high-confidence style of play that will no doubt be fun to watch down the line. Defensively, Mayo shows an absolute cannon of an arm from third base, but as a bigger guy, he doesn't quite have the range to handle third base, at least not yet. The arm strength will buy the glove opportunities to grow, and perhaps he might not need to be the most agile defender to stick over there, but third basemen are being asked to cover more and more ground nowadays with shifts and it will be an uphill climb. If the mechanical changes prove to be the magic touch for Mayo, then it won't matter where he plays because the power is completely legitimate. Committed to Florida, he signed for $1.75 million, which is front half of the second round money and roughly $1.18 million above slot value.
5-133: RHP Carter Baumler, Dowling Catholic HS, IA (my rank: 147)
Here's the other big over slot deal. As I mentioned in the intro, Baumler is the trend-buster here. He's the only pitcher, the only non-Southerner, and unlike some of the hitters, he actually has very clean mechanics. Iowa isn't the biggest baseball state in the country, but they've quietly produced some solid pitching talent from Jeremy Hellickson and Joel Hanrahan to, more recently, current prospects AJ Puk, TJ Sikkema, and Cardinals 2020 fourth rounder Ian Bedell. Baumler, from Des Moines, is a 6'2" righty with the building blocks to be a future impact starting pitcher. His fastball sits in the low 90's at present, though it dips into the upper 80's more than scouts would like to see at this point. His curveball is probably his best pitch for now, with tight spin and nice depth at times but in need of just a little more consistency, while he doesn't use his changeup as often but it can be a sneaky good pitch. Partly owing to his smooth delivery, he's a solid strike thrower that projects as above average in that regard, and there is some projection remaining in his 6'2" frame. That makes for a fairly ordinary right-now product, but proponents see him needing less development than most high school pitchers and instead only needing to add strength. The stuff is a little bit slight right now, but if he tacks on a few pounds, he could be more consistently in the low 90's with his fastball, perhaps touch the mid 90's more often, and put a little power on that curveball. If he sharpens his command a little bit to above average, that's a really nice mid-rotation starter profile. He's committed to TCU and the Orioles believe that had he followed through, he would have hit the ground running and come out a star on the other end, so they snapped him up here. He hasn't put pen to paper yet but he's reportedly agreed to a $1.5 million bonus, which would be about $1.08 million above slot value. The Orioles have over $1.7 million left in their bonus pool.
Undrafted: RHP Thomas Girard, Duke (unranked)
Girard was high school teammates with second rounder Hudson Haskin at Avon Old Farms School just outside Hartford, Connecticut, and he's been a lights out closer in his sophomore and junior seasons at Duke: 2.58 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 84/19 K/BB in 59.1 innings. He's undersized at 5'11" and has pitched exclusively in relief for the Blue Devils, and that's where he'll stay with a max effort delivery. I haven't been able to find velocity numbers on his fastball, but it plays up coming from that loud delivery that features a lot of moving limbs and head whack, but his best pitch is an above average slider that routinely misses bats. He's done an excellent job of limiting baseunners at Duke and allowed just 32 hits in 59.1 innings over the past two seasons, and despite his max effort delivery, he's a solid average strike thrower. Girard has the opportunity to move quickly in a relief role.
Undrafted: OF Dylan Harris, North Carolina (unranked)
Harris, a native of the Knoxville suburbs, raked for two years at Walters State CC in Tennessee before transferring across the mountains to UNC. With the Tar Heels, he's slashed .266/.406/.465 with eleven home runs and a 47/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 games. Just 5'9", he's been noted for his exceptional strike zone judgement that will aid him significantly in pro ball. He finds the barrel consistently with a compact left handed swing, which led to a fairly ordinary junior year at UNC (.263/.407/.426), but he was driving the ball much more consistently as a senior (.274/.404/.575) and knocked five home runs in 19 games. A good defender who should stick in center field, he'll probably work his way up in a fourth or fifth outfielder capacity, but he has the kind of bat that won't lose much potency when transitioning from the ACC to professional baseball.
Undrafted: 1B J.D. Mundy, Radford (unranked)
I saw a lot of Mundy when he was an underclassman at Virginia Tech, though he slashed a fairly unremarkable .247/.377/.450 with 12 home runs and a 71/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games in those first two seasons. A lack of guaranteed playing time under new head coach John Szefc (pronounced "sheff") lead to him transferring half an hour down Peppers Ferry Road over to Radford, where his bat really came alive. Between his junior and senior seasons, the Roanoke native slashed .323/.425/.606 with 17 home runs and a 58/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games, leaving the Highlanders on a real high note – over his final five games, he went 11-20 with three home runs and 14 RBI against Canisius, George Mason, and Notre Dame. Mundy is on the shorter side for a slugger, standing an even six feet tall, but he packs a lot of strength into that frame and can really drive the ball when he connects. Though his power is more a product of brute strength than of bat speed, he controls the strike zone well with a patient approach that should enable him to handle pro pitching. He'll probably have to get a little bit looser with his swing to handle upper minors pitching, especially since he's a first baseman only who won't provide much value on that side of the ball, but the lefty fits well at Camden Yards and could hit his way into a platoon role.
Saturday, July 18, 2020
2020 Draft Review: Miami Marlins
1-3: RHP Max Meyer, Minnesota
2-40: LHP Dax Fulton, Mustang HS (OK)
CBB-61: RHP Kyle Nicolas, Ball State
3-75: RHP Zach McCambley, Coastal Carolina
4-104: LHP Jake Eder, Vanderbilt
5-134: RHP Kyle Hurt, Southern California
The Marlins like to scare us by waiting until the last second to sign their draftees, and it looks like that's happening again this year with only two out of six having officially put pen to paper. After picking up five straight bats to start the 2019 draft, they flipped the script this year and spent all six picks on pitchers. The selection of Max Meyer at third overall was a bit of a surprise after they had been linked heavily to Asa Lacy throughout the spring, and it's even more surprising a month later now that they've both received roughly the same signing bonus. Even though five out of six picks were from the college ranks, this was clearly an upside-oriented draft, as only Meyer can really be considered a "sure thing." As far as third overall picks go, Meyer is still more of an upside pick because you're not going to pick anybody considered high risk that early anyways. I tentatively like the class, even if I would have picked Lacy over Meyer myself, but given its boom/bust nature, we'll really just have to wait and see.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-3: RHP Max Meyer, Minnesota (my rank: 9)
When the Orioles unexpectedly took Heston Kjerstad second overall, the Marlins ended up with a dream scenario: Vanderbilt's Austin Martin, the best all-around player in the class, or any pitcher they wanted. They chose option B, but instead of Texas A&M's Asa Lacy, who is widely considered the best pitcher in the class and who had been tied to them all spring, they chose Max Meyer, the man with the best two pitch combination not just in this draft, but in years. I ranked him ninth behind Louisville's Reid Detmers, but honestly that's a bit of a regret and I'd flip them if I could. Anyways, Max Meyer is a skinny 6' righty out of the Twin Cities area who stayed home for college, and he's put up some pretty exciting numbers in his Minnesota career: 10-7, 2.07 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 187/41 K/BB in 148 IP. He put an exclamation point on his career when he tossed 17 innings and allowed just one earned run against two strong lineups in UNC and Utah, striking out 29 batters in the process. He's done all this on the strength of a three pitch mix headlined by two of the best pitches in the entire draft. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has hit triple digits, and despite his smaller stature, he easily holds that velocity deep into his starts. His slider is perhaps the best pitch in the entire draft, a disgusting breaking ball that can reaches low 90's (!!!) fairly often without sacrificing movement, still coming in with great depth despite its top of the scale velocity. Not just a two pitch guy, he also throws a very solid changeup that solidifies his future as a starting pitcher, and everything plays up further because he can actually command it well. Really, the only downside in his game is size, but that hasn't proven to be an issue at all yet. He's extremely athletic and extremely competitive, which has enabled him to repeat his delivery consistently and hold his stuff deep into games, but he also has just 15 college starts under his belt. Don't get me wrong, I see him as a starting pitcher for sure, but the microscope is very strong at the third overall pick and the Marlins have to be certain he'll hold up in the rotation to justify this pick. I think if Meyer were three or four inches taller with the exact same profile otherwise, he would have been in the conversation with Spencer Torkelson for first overall, and the upside here is clearly an ace. Really, the only thing separating him from Jacob deGrom is height and a curveball. Meyer signed for $6.7 million, which was about $520,000 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.
2-40: LHP Dax Fulton, Mustang HS, OK (my rank: 41)
First off, doesn't "Dax Fulton from Mustang, Oklahoma" just sound like he has to be good at baseball? Or at least a competitor at the Houston Rodeo? Anyways, Fulton was clearly the best high school lefty in the country last summer, a title he retains even after after he blew out his elbow in the fall and went down with Tommy John surgery. Fulton is a towering 6'6" lefty who grew up just outside of Oklahoma City, bringing a low 90's fastball that looks like it's coming straight down on hitters. His curveball is easily top two in the high school class, perhaps just a hair behind Nick Bitsko's but not clearly, coming in with both tremendous depth and great two-plane movement. He can also manipulate it into a slider-like offering with more horizontal movement, and he should only get better in that regard as he develops. For now, his changeup is fairly ordinary and requires some projection, but he does show feel for it. The first step for Fulton will be getting healthy, but from there, he has the potential to develop into a real ace. There's plenty of room to project onto his frame and envision more velocity, which he'll need, and his strike throwing is decent but he could definitely use more time to smooth out his delivery and get more consistent with his arm slot. The Marlins have a project on their hands for sure, but between the excellent curveball, the present all-around ability outside of that, the youth, and the projection, there is a ton of upside. Slot value is $1.86 million and he hasn't signed yet, but I would imagine it will require north of $2 million to sign away from an Oklahoma commitment. With weekend starters Cade Cavalli, Dane Acker, and Levi Prater all getting drafted by the Nationals, Athletics, and Cardinals, respectively, he has a chance to jump straight into the weekend rotation as soon as he's healthy, so the Marlins better pay up. Pre-draft profile here.
CBB-61: RHP Kyle Nicolas, Ball State (my rank: 56)
Here's another big upside play. Nicolas formed one of the better high school batteries around in 2017, when he was throwing to future Tigers second rounder Dillon Dingler at Jackson High School just outside Canton, Ohio, then the two went separate ways as Dingler headed to Ohio State and Nicolas to Ball State. He flashed great stuff over his first two seasons in Muncie, but his inconsistent command held him back with a 5.30 ERA and 91 walks in 108.2 innings in that time frame. In 2020, though, he came out of the gate looking much better in that regard, putting up a 2.74 ERA and a 37/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings, including a 17 strikeout, one hit performance against Sacred Heart in his final start. Nicolas is a 6'4" right hander with a big mid 90's fastball that has hit triple digits in the past, adding in a full set of secondaries that are inconsistent but improving. His slider is his best offspeed pitch, getting into the upper 80's at times and flashing good depth as well, while his curveball can be an above average pitch at times and his changeup lags behind for the most part. Formerly a well below average strike thrower, he's smoothed out his delivery and was showing closer to average command in 2020, something that will be key if he wants to remain a starting pitcher. The Marlins are buying the arm strength and the trajectory here, hoping that he continues the progress he's made and develops into a true impact starter. I think he has a very good shot at that, which is great value in the second competitive balance round, but if he stagnates with his secondaries or his command, he could wind up in the bullpen. There, I think his fastball/slider combination could play up well, but you'd rather have him as a starter regardless. Nicolas signed for $1.13 million, right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
3-75: RHP Zach McCambley, Coastal Carolina (my rank: 89)
In a way, Zach McCambley is a little bit like Max Meyer-lite in that his arsenal is highlighted by a wicked fastball/breaking ball combination. The northeastern Pennsylvania native (NEPA, as I'm told it's pronounced) has been a bit up and down during his career at Coastal Carolina, but 2020 was certainly an up: 3-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 25 innings. He's a 6'1" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball that he has run up to 97, but his best pitch is his curveball. It's a true plus pitch, perhaps plus-plus when he locates it, showing huge two plane break in addition to more velocity than most curveballs get. He has a changeup, but doesn't use it much and he'll need to work on it. He's done a better job of throwing strikes this spring as well as last summer in the Cape Cod League, where he had a 1.74 ERA and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.2 innings, but his command is still average at best and still below average more often than not. There are significant reliever questions with McCambley given his lack of a third pitch in addition to the inconsistent command, but if he can continue trending in the right direction like he has been, he absolutely has a shot to stick in the rotation. If not, the fastball and curveball should play very well out of the bullpen and I could easily envision him as a late inning reliever at the major league level. Slot vlaue is $831,100 and he has not signed yet, and while I have no insider information, I could see him taking a slight discount. Pre-draft profile here.
4-104: LHP Jake Eder, Vanderbilt (my rank: 85)
Jake Eder grew up in Ocean Ridge, Palm Beach County, and was a star pitcher at Calvary Christian High School in Fort Lauderdale. His projectable frame and big stuff earned him serious draft buzz in 2017 and his name was mentioned regularly in the second round range, but he headed north to Vanderbilt instead and is a very similar prospect three years later. He's been solid over the last two seasons for the Commodores, putting up a 3.19 ERA and a 68/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings, highlighted by earning the save to close out Vanderbilt's 2019 College World Series win. The 6'4" lefty flashes first round stuff at times, running his fastball as high as 97 at times and showing a plus curveball with great depth and an average changeup. However, he might look like that one start, then the next week his fastball will sit around 90 and his breaking ball will back up on him. With fringe-average command, he can't really afford too many of those off days and he'll have to get much more consistent. He has a great pitcher's body with room to add more good weight, and he has a very natural left arm that seems like it was made for pitching. The Marlins are excited to work with him and see if they can get the most out of him, though the fact that Vanderbilt of all places hasn't gotten him more consistent to this point worries me slightly. There's plenty of starter upside and just as much reliever risk here, with the Marlins obviously buying into the former. Slot value is $560,000 but I suspect he'll need a little more to sign. Pre-draft profile here.
5-134: RHP Kyle Hurt, Southern California (my rank: 156)
Like Eder, Kyle Hurt was a well-known prospect for the 2017 draft growing up in the San Diego suburbs, but he ended up at USC instead and like Eder, he's more or less the same prospect he was three years ago. Because he was a year older than most members of his high school graduating class, he was draft-eligible as a sophomore in 2019, but an up and down first two seasons for the Trojans (7-12, 5.22 ERA, 145/99 K/BB in 155.2 IP) left him undrafted. With a 3.71 ERA and a 25/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings this year, including a strong start against TCU to close it out, the Marlins were comfortable enough with the 6'3" righty's progression to pop him in the third round. Hurt's calling card has long been his power low to mid 90's fastball, but he also adds an above average changeup with nice fading action that routinely misses bats. He mainly relies on those two pitches for his outs, but he also adds in a hard slider and loopy curveball that flash above average at times but too often flatten out. His command is similarly inconsistent, and it has kept him from fully realizing his potential at USC. Everyone agrees that he has the arm strength and build to start, but I have heard numerous concerns over his work ethic; I've never met the guy and for that reason I don't want to dwell on it, but the general feel in the industry is that he's cruised this far on natural talent alone and that he might be in for a big time reality check in pro ball. The Marlins are buying the arm strength and natural talent, and they believe they can whip him into shape and help him pull it all together to become a mid rotation starter. On the down side, even though he's a junior, he turned 22 back in May and is really the age of a college senior. Slot value is $418,200 and I'm not sure how much he'll require to sign.
Undrafted: SS Brett Norwood, Virginia Commonwealth (unranked)
I actually played against Norwood in the 2015 Virginia high school state championship game, when he played for Chantilly High School in Northern Virginia (we won that year, but Chantilly came back and won it all in 2016). He started his career at South Florida State CC in Highlands County, then transferred back to his home state for his junior and senior years. Since transferring to VCU, he's been a steady .303/.425/.440 hitter with seven home runs, 30 stolen bases, and an even 36/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Norwood has no standout tool, but he's a great all-around hitter who gets on base consistently, makes plenty of contact, runs well, and produces some sneaky power from a smaller 5'11" frame. It's a utility infield projection, and as long as he hits for enough impact in pro ball (which I think he will), he could work his way up relatively quickly. That would be best, because he'll already be 23 in August.
Undrafted: LHP Antonio Velez, Florida State (unranked)
Velez gives the Marlins a semi-hometown player, having grown up in Brandon, Florida, attended Hillsborough CC in nearby Tampa, and transferred to Florida State for the 2019 season. The 6'1" lefty was solid as a redshirt junior (4.17 ERA, 50/11 K/BB in 45.1 IP) and was off to a hot start in 2020, putting up a 0.52 ERA and a 21/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.1 innings against some pretty strong lineups, including six shutout innings in a win over an undefeated Florida team. In the rotation, his fastball sits in the upper 80's and scrapes the low 90's, but I see him moving to the bullpen in pro ball, where he should be more comfortably in the low 90's. He gets some nice run on the ball and his quick delivery makes the ball pop out of his hand, but it doesn't look quite repeatable enough to start in pro ball. There is a nice slider that flashes above average as well, plus a changeup, and he's been an above average strike thrower for the Seminoles. Having already turned 23 in March, he's one of the older players to sign a pro contract this year, but he could move relatively quickly in a relief role.
2-40: LHP Dax Fulton, Mustang HS (OK)
CBB-61: RHP Kyle Nicolas, Ball State
3-75: RHP Zach McCambley, Coastal Carolina
4-104: LHP Jake Eder, Vanderbilt
5-134: RHP Kyle Hurt, Southern California
The Marlins like to scare us by waiting until the last second to sign their draftees, and it looks like that's happening again this year with only two out of six having officially put pen to paper. After picking up five straight bats to start the 2019 draft, they flipped the script this year and spent all six picks on pitchers. The selection of Max Meyer at third overall was a bit of a surprise after they had been linked heavily to Asa Lacy throughout the spring, and it's even more surprising a month later now that they've both received roughly the same signing bonus. Even though five out of six picks were from the college ranks, this was clearly an upside-oriented draft, as only Meyer can really be considered a "sure thing." As far as third overall picks go, Meyer is still more of an upside pick because you're not going to pick anybody considered high risk that early anyways. I tentatively like the class, even if I would have picked Lacy over Meyer myself, but given its boom/bust nature, we'll really just have to wait and see.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-3: RHP Max Meyer, Minnesota (my rank: 9)
When the Orioles unexpectedly took Heston Kjerstad second overall, the Marlins ended up with a dream scenario: Vanderbilt's Austin Martin, the best all-around player in the class, or any pitcher they wanted. They chose option B, but instead of Texas A&M's Asa Lacy, who is widely considered the best pitcher in the class and who had been tied to them all spring, they chose Max Meyer, the man with the best two pitch combination not just in this draft, but in years. I ranked him ninth behind Louisville's Reid Detmers, but honestly that's a bit of a regret and I'd flip them if I could. Anyways, Max Meyer is a skinny 6' righty out of the Twin Cities area who stayed home for college, and he's put up some pretty exciting numbers in his Minnesota career: 10-7, 2.07 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 187/41 K/BB in 148 IP. He put an exclamation point on his career when he tossed 17 innings and allowed just one earned run against two strong lineups in UNC and Utah, striking out 29 batters in the process. He's done all this on the strength of a three pitch mix headlined by two of the best pitches in the entire draft. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has hit triple digits, and despite his smaller stature, he easily holds that velocity deep into his starts. His slider is perhaps the best pitch in the entire draft, a disgusting breaking ball that can reaches low 90's (!!!) fairly often without sacrificing movement, still coming in with great depth despite its top of the scale velocity. Not just a two pitch guy, he also throws a very solid changeup that solidifies his future as a starting pitcher, and everything plays up further because he can actually command it well. Really, the only downside in his game is size, but that hasn't proven to be an issue at all yet. He's extremely athletic and extremely competitive, which has enabled him to repeat his delivery consistently and hold his stuff deep into games, but he also has just 15 college starts under his belt. Don't get me wrong, I see him as a starting pitcher for sure, but the microscope is very strong at the third overall pick and the Marlins have to be certain he'll hold up in the rotation to justify this pick. I think if Meyer were three or four inches taller with the exact same profile otherwise, he would have been in the conversation with Spencer Torkelson for first overall, and the upside here is clearly an ace. Really, the only thing separating him from Jacob deGrom is height and a curveball. Meyer signed for $6.7 million, which was about $520,000 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.
2-40: LHP Dax Fulton, Mustang HS, OK (my rank: 41)
First off, doesn't "Dax Fulton from Mustang, Oklahoma" just sound like he has to be good at baseball? Or at least a competitor at the Houston Rodeo? Anyways, Fulton was clearly the best high school lefty in the country last summer, a title he retains even after after he blew out his elbow in the fall and went down with Tommy John surgery. Fulton is a towering 6'6" lefty who grew up just outside of Oklahoma City, bringing a low 90's fastball that looks like it's coming straight down on hitters. His curveball is easily top two in the high school class, perhaps just a hair behind Nick Bitsko's but not clearly, coming in with both tremendous depth and great two-plane movement. He can also manipulate it into a slider-like offering with more horizontal movement, and he should only get better in that regard as he develops. For now, his changeup is fairly ordinary and requires some projection, but he does show feel for it. The first step for Fulton will be getting healthy, but from there, he has the potential to develop into a real ace. There's plenty of room to project onto his frame and envision more velocity, which he'll need, and his strike throwing is decent but he could definitely use more time to smooth out his delivery and get more consistent with his arm slot. The Marlins have a project on their hands for sure, but between the excellent curveball, the present all-around ability outside of that, the youth, and the projection, there is a ton of upside. Slot value is $1.86 million and he hasn't signed yet, but I would imagine it will require north of $2 million to sign away from an Oklahoma commitment. With weekend starters Cade Cavalli, Dane Acker, and Levi Prater all getting drafted by the Nationals, Athletics, and Cardinals, respectively, he has a chance to jump straight into the weekend rotation as soon as he's healthy, so the Marlins better pay up. Pre-draft profile here.
CBB-61: RHP Kyle Nicolas, Ball State (my rank: 56)
Here's another big upside play. Nicolas formed one of the better high school batteries around in 2017, when he was throwing to future Tigers second rounder Dillon Dingler at Jackson High School just outside Canton, Ohio, then the two went separate ways as Dingler headed to Ohio State and Nicolas to Ball State. He flashed great stuff over his first two seasons in Muncie, but his inconsistent command held him back with a 5.30 ERA and 91 walks in 108.2 innings in that time frame. In 2020, though, he came out of the gate looking much better in that regard, putting up a 2.74 ERA and a 37/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings, including a 17 strikeout, one hit performance against Sacred Heart in his final start. Nicolas is a 6'4" right hander with a big mid 90's fastball that has hit triple digits in the past, adding in a full set of secondaries that are inconsistent but improving. His slider is his best offspeed pitch, getting into the upper 80's at times and flashing good depth as well, while his curveball can be an above average pitch at times and his changeup lags behind for the most part. Formerly a well below average strike thrower, he's smoothed out his delivery and was showing closer to average command in 2020, something that will be key if he wants to remain a starting pitcher. The Marlins are buying the arm strength and the trajectory here, hoping that he continues the progress he's made and develops into a true impact starter. I think he has a very good shot at that, which is great value in the second competitive balance round, but if he stagnates with his secondaries or his command, he could wind up in the bullpen. There, I think his fastball/slider combination could play up well, but you'd rather have him as a starter regardless. Nicolas signed for $1.13 million, right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
3-75: RHP Zach McCambley, Coastal Carolina (my rank: 89)
In a way, Zach McCambley is a little bit like Max Meyer-lite in that his arsenal is highlighted by a wicked fastball/breaking ball combination. The northeastern Pennsylvania native (NEPA, as I'm told it's pronounced) has been a bit up and down during his career at Coastal Carolina, but 2020 was certainly an up: 3-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 25 innings. He's a 6'1" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball that he has run up to 97, but his best pitch is his curveball. It's a true plus pitch, perhaps plus-plus when he locates it, showing huge two plane break in addition to more velocity than most curveballs get. He has a changeup, but doesn't use it much and he'll need to work on it. He's done a better job of throwing strikes this spring as well as last summer in the Cape Cod League, where he had a 1.74 ERA and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.2 innings, but his command is still average at best and still below average more often than not. There are significant reliever questions with McCambley given his lack of a third pitch in addition to the inconsistent command, but if he can continue trending in the right direction like he has been, he absolutely has a shot to stick in the rotation. If not, the fastball and curveball should play very well out of the bullpen and I could easily envision him as a late inning reliever at the major league level. Slot vlaue is $831,100 and he has not signed yet, and while I have no insider information, I could see him taking a slight discount. Pre-draft profile here.
4-104: LHP Jake Eder, Vanderbilt (my rank: 85)
Jake Eder grew up in Ocean Ridge, Palm Beach County, and was a star pitcher at Calvary Christian High School in Fort Lauderdale. His projectable frame and big stuff earned him serious draft buzz in 2017 and his name was mentioned regularly in the second round range, but he headed north to Vanderbilt instead and is a very similar prospect three years later. He's been solid over the last two seasons for the Commodores, putting up a 3.19 ERA and a 68/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings, highlighted by earning the save to close out Vanderbilt's 2019 College World Series win. The 6'4" lefty flashes first round stuff at times, running his fastball as high as 97 at times and showing a plus curveball with great depth and an average changeup. However, he might look like that one start, then the next week his fastball will sit around 90 and his breaking ball will back up on him. With fringe-average command, he can't really afford too many of those off days and he'll have to get much more consistent. He has a great pitcher's body with room to add more good weight, and he has a very natural left arm that seems like it was made for pitching. The Marlins are excited to work with him and see if they can get the most out of him, though the fact that Vanderbilt of all places hasn't gotten him more consistent to this point worries me slightly. There's plenty of starter upside and just as much reliever risk here, with the Marlins obviously buying into the former. Slot value is $560,000 but I suspect he'll need a little more to sign. Pre-draft profile here.
5-134: RHP Kyle Hurt, Southern California (my rank: 156)
Like Eder, Kyle Hurt was a well-known prospect for the 2017 draft growing up in the San Diego suburbs, but he ended up at USC instead and like Eder, he's more or less the same prospect he was three years ago. Because he was a year older than most members of his high school graduating class, he was draft-eligible as a sophomore in 2019, but an up and down first two seasons for the Trojans (7-12, 5.22 ERA, 145/99 K/BB in 155.2 IP) left him undrafted. With a 3.71 ERA and a 25/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings this year, including a strong start against TCU to close it out, the Marlins were comfortable enough with the 6'3" righty's progression to pop him in the third round. Hurt's calling card has long been his power low to mid 90's fastball, but he also adds an above average changeup with nice fading action that routinely misses bats. He mainly relies on those two pitches for his outs, but he also adds in a hard slider and loopy curveball that flash above average at times but too often flatten out. His command is similarly inconsistent, and it has kept him from fully realizing his potential at USC. Everyone agrees that he has the arm strength and build to start, but I have heard numerous concerns over his work ethic; I've never met the guy and for that reason I don't want to dwell on it, but the general feel in the industry is that he's cruised this far on natural talent alone and that he might be in for a big time reality check in pro ball. The Marlins are buying the arm strength and natural talent, and they believe they can whip him into shape and help him pull it all together to become a mid rotation starter. On the down side, even though he's a junior, he turned 22 back in May and is really the age of a college senior. Slot value is $418,200 and I'm not sure how much he'll require to sign.
Undrafted: SS Brett Norwood, Virginia Commonwealth (unranked)
I actually played against Norwood in the 2015 Virginia high school state championship game, when he played for Chantilly High School in Northern Virginia (we won that year, but Chantilly came back and won it all in 2016). He started his career at South Florida State CC in Highlands County, then transferred back to his home state for his junior and senior years. Since transferring to VCU, he's been a steady .303/.425/.440 hitter with seven home runs, 30 stolen bases, and an even 36/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Norwood has no standout tool, but he's a great all-around hitter who gets on base consistently, makes plenty of contact, runs well, and produces some sneaky power from a smaller 5'11" frame. It's a utility infield projection, and as long as he hits for enough impact in pro ball (which I think he will), he could work his way up relatively quickly. That would be best, because he'll already be 23 in August.
Undrafted: LHP Antonio Velez, Florida State (unranked)
Velez gives the Marlins a semi-hometown player, having grown up in Brandon, Florida, attended Hillsborough CC in nearby Tampa, and transferred to Florida State for the 2019 season. The 6'1" lefty was solid as a redshirt junior (4.17 ERA, 50/11 K/BB in 45.1 IP) and was off to a hot start in 2020, putting up a 0.52 ERA and a 21/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.1 innings against some pretty strong lineups, including six shutout innings in a win over an undefeated Florida team. In the rotation, his fastball sits in the upper 80's and scrapes the low 90's, but I see him moving to the bullpen in pro ball, where he should be more comfortably in the low 90's. He gets some nice run on the ball and his quick delivery makes the ball pop out of his hand, but it doesn't look quite repeatable enough to start in pro ball. There is a nice slider that flashes above average as well, plus a changeup, and he's been an above average strike thrower for the Seminoles. Having already turned 23 in March, he's one of the older players to sign a pro contract this year, but he could move relatively quickly in a relief role.
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