Mets Acquire Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz

Mets Get
2B Robinson Cano (2019 Age: 36): 10 HR, .303/.374/.471, 0 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR
RHP Edwin Diaz (2019 Age: 25): 0-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 124/17 K/BB, 73.1 IP
$20 million (for Cano's contract)

Mariners Get
OF Jay Bruce (2019 Age: 32): 9 HR, .223/.310/.370, 2 SB, 89 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR
RHP Anthony Swarzak (2019 Age: 33): 0-2, 6.15 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 31/14 K/BB, 26.1 IP
RHP Gerson Bautista (2019 Age: 23-24): 0-1, 12.46 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3/5 K/BB, 4.1 IP
RHP Justin Dunn (2019 Age: 23): 8-8, 3.59 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 156/52 K/BB, 135.1 IP at High A/AA
OF Jarred Kelenic (2019 Age: 19-20): 6 HR, .286/.371/.468, 15 SB, 124 wRC+ at complex/rookie

There is a lot to unpack in this trade, with core issues being not just player value but contract obligations. Robinson Cano has five years and $120 million left on his contract, and while he'll probably return significant value over the next two years or so, he won't be worth nearly the entire contract. Jay Bruce is owed $26 million over the next two seasons and Anthony Swarzak is owed $8.5 million for 2019, and neither player will likely cover the value of their deals either.

Mets Perspective
I did not like this trade for the Mets at first, but the more I look at it, the more I'm able to stomach it from their perspective. The Mariners will send $20 million along with Cano, making his contract a five year, $100 million commitment for the Mets while also taking $34.5 million more from them in the form of the Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak contracts, though of course they get their potential value to go along with the contracts. Assuming Bruce is worth something like $10-15 million over the next two seasons and Swarzak is worth something around $3 million next year, that excess $17-22 million of saved money over value can be factored into Cano's deal and assume that Cano will now cost them $78-83 million over five years, which is getting close to reasonable. Factor in all the money saved from and Cano's deal ends up adding $65.5 million over the next five years as well as the loss of Bruce's bat and Swarzak's arm. When broken down like that, we can consider Gerson Bautista, Justin Dunn, and Jarred Kelenic to be going over for Diaz, which on its own seems like a light package. Basically, whatever you think of this deal basically boils down to what you think is more important: overpaying for Cano by taking on roughly $80 million in money over value, or underpaying for Diaz by giving up only Bautista, Dunn, and Kelenic. Personally, I don't see this as the greatest deal for the Mets, but it's not as bad as I thought it was originally.

Money aside, Robinson Cano will be a big help for the Mets by providing an above average bat and decent enough defense at second base, at least in the short term. His .303/.374/.471 slash line last season was very good when given the SAFECO Field context, and he can give Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto some badly needed support in the lineup just as Peter Alonso comes up to join in. Back in 2016, he hit 39 home runs while slashing .298/.350/.533, and his decline has not been so steep as to think he can't hit like that for stretches in 2019 and 2020. Ultimately, I think he ends up somewhere around his 2017 numbers (23 HR, .280/.338/.453) for the first couple years in New York, which certainly doesn't justify the contract but that's what Edwin Diaz is for. There is also a very good chance that Cano reaches 3000 hits with the Mets, as he needs just 530 over five years. For his career, the Dominican has 311 home runs, a .304/.355/.493 slash line, and 56.3 fWAR over 2078 games since 2005. For all the talk about Cano, Edwin Diaz is actually the prized get. You can argue that he is the best reliever in the game, having put up a 1.96 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a ridiculous 124/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings in 2018. He had the same wicked stuff in 2017, but in 2018, the difference was that he could actually command it. When you have a closer who can't be hit and also throws strikes, that's bad news for opposing teams. He's also not a free agent until after the 2022 season, leaving him in Mets pinstripes for up to four years. For his career, the Puerto Rican has a 2.64 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 301/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 188 appearances since 2016.

Mariners Perspective
After dealing James Paxton earlier in the offseason, it looks like the Mariners are getting serious about adding to a farm system that I would argue was the worst in baseball coming into the offseason. Of course, that required them throwing in the towel for short term contention by letting go of two of their biggest stars in Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. They also shed roughly $65.5 million in payroll obligations while getting some very good prospects in return, so while I was on the fence from the Mets' perspective, I like it from the Mariners' side. In terms of the 2019 season, the biggest addition is Jay Bruce for now. Bruce hit 36 home runs and slashed .254/.324/.508 in 2017, but he slumped to .223/.310/.370 with nine home runs in 2018. The bat probably picks back up in 2019, and he'll see time in left field and at DH. The platoon situation will be interesting, as Bruce, left fielder Ben Gamel, and DH Dan Vogelbach are all left handed hitters, with first baseman Ryon Healy being the only right handed hitter in this shuffle. However, Healy is also arguably the best hitter in the group, so it will be hard to justify benching him against right handed pitching in order to get all the lefties into the lineup. My guess is Bruce sees most of his time at DH while Gamel stays in left, with Healy playing most games against right handers but being spelled occasionally by Dan Vogelbach, who loses the most playing time in this scenario. Bruce is under contract for $13 million in both 2019 and 2020, but it's well shy of Cano's annual $24 million obligation. For his career, the Texan has 286 home runs, a .247/.318/.466 slash line, and 20.1 fWAR over 1510 games since 2008. Anthony Swarzak, meanwhile joins the bullpen. He was really good in 2017 (2.33 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 91/22 K/BB in 77.1 IP) but cratered in 2018 (6.15 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 31/14 K/BB in 26.1 IP) as he struggled with nagging injuries all season. If Swarzak can stay healthy, he can be a useful 7th or 8th inning reliever, but he comes with an $8.5 million contract for 2019 that the Mariners will be on the hook for regardless of his health. For his career, the South Florida native has a 4.30 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 433/174 strikeout to walk ratio over 316 games (32 starts) since 2009. Gerson Bautista will also join the bullpen, fresh off making his MLB debut in 2018. He spent the majority of the season at AA Binghamton and AAA Las Vegas, posting an ugly 5.14 ERA and 1.71 WHIP to go along with a very nice 69/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 innings. He can blow the ball by hitters with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a pretty good slider, but he leaves it over the plate and gets hit often. Just 23, he has time to learn the strike zone, but he's probably just a middle reliever unless something drastic changes. The real upside arm that the Mariners will be excited about is Justin Dunn, a Long Island native who is getting traded away from his hometown team. Dunn bounced back from a rough 2017 at High A Port St. Lucie (5.00 ERA, 75/48 K/BB in 95.1 IP) to have a very solid 2018, starting off by posting a 2.36 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings back at St. Lucie. He wasn't quite as effective at AA Binghamton, where he had a 4.22 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings, but he held his own and could be ready for the majors sometime in late 2019. The 23 year old throws hard and is continuing to work on his secondaries and command, and he's athletic enough to make it all work as a starting pitcher. Dunn probably won't be a top of the rotation arm in Seattle, but he has a good shot at becoming a mid-rotation starter in the near future. Lastly, Jarred Kelenic might end up being the prized get for the Mariners. The teenage outfielder was the sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft out of high school in Wisconsin, and the kid already known for his advanced bat decided to slash .413/.451/.609 with a home run, four stolen bases, and an 11/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games in complex ball. Promoted to Kingsport in the rookie level Appalachian League, he slashed .253/.350/.431 with five home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. He doesn't turn 20 until July but he already shows an advanced feel for both the barrel and the strike zone, good speed, and some power. He obviously has a lot to prove, starting with handling A ball pitching in the spring, but he has legitimate leadoff upside down the road in Seattle.

Mets Sign Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce: 36 HR, .254/.324/.508, 1 SB, 118 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR

Three years, $39 million, annual five team no-trade clause

The Mets added some actual lineup protection for Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto, bringing back Jay Bruce on a three year, $39 million deal. While this won't help the Mets catch the Nationals in the NL East, the Mets may be able to compete for a Wild Card spot if Noah Syndergaard can bounce back and young prospective stars Amed Rosario and Dom Smith can quickly transition to MLB pitching by living up to the hype right away. Bruce may end up with quite a few defensive homes, likely seeing time in left field, right field, and first base, though the Mets will want to keep his bat in the lineup as much as possible. With Cespedes injured a fair amount and Conforto coming off shoulder surgery, he could see time filling in for them, or we could even see Cespedes slide to center field occasionally to get all three in the outfield at once. Additionally, 22 year old first baseman Dom Smith is not a given to produce at first base, and while the Mets hope he can be a productive bat this year, Bruce can play first base if Smith's bat is a liability. Now for Bruce's bat; it's pretty interesting. He's really only good for one thing, home runs, but he's really good for that one thing, clubbing at least 30 in five of the past seven seasons and 36 last year. In fact, this past season was one of his best, as he slashed .254/.324/.508 with those 36 home runs, putting up a 118 wRC+. He'll need to keep popping those home runs, because he doesn't do much otherwise. He's an average defender who figures to lose a step as he ages, and he has an average walk rate to go with low batting averages, meaning his on-base percentage hasn't climbed north of .329 since 2011. The length of this deal, three years, is very good for the Mets, because when Bruce's power begins to slip later in his 30's, he won't be able to contribute much with those low on-base percentages. Overall, this was a smart move by the Mets. For his career, Bruce has 277 home runs, a .249/.319/.472 slash line, and 20.3 fWAR over 1416 games.

Hot Stove Preview: Free Agent Outfielders

Outfielders

This year's outfield class is fairly deep, led by J.D. Martinez, Lorenzo Cain, and Shohei Ohtani, with some solid secondary options like Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, and Carlos Gomez. After those front six, the quality of the players available goes down a bit, with mostly fourth outfielders up for grabs.

Bonus: Shohei Ohtani (Previous Team: Nippon-Ham Fighters. 2018 Age: 23-24)

2017 Japan Stats: 8 HR, 31 RBI, .332 AVG, .403 OBP, .540 SLG, 0 SB

I'm not ranking Ohtani because a) he's technically not a free agent yet and b) we don't even know if he'll sign as a pitcher, a hitter, or both. I'll talk about Ohtani the outfielder here, though he is more likely to join the MLB as a pitcher. Ohtani is a power bat who slashed .332/.403/.540 with eight home runs in 65 games in Japan this year, one who could be an above average hitter in the major leagues. However, he did strike out in 27.2% of his plate appearances and walked in 10.4%. That's not the worst walk rate in the world, but he'll need to get a handle on the strike zone before facing more advanced MLB pitching. He doesn't turn 24 until July, so there is absolutely potential for growth, and he'll come much cheaper than the other free agent outfielders (likely about $25 million between the posting fee and the signing bonus). For his career, he has 48 home runs and a .286/.358/.500 line over 403 games in the Nippon Professional Baseball League, Japan's major league. More on his pitching in the next update.

1. J.D. Martinez (Previous Team: Diamondbacks. 2018 Age: 30)

2017 Stats: 45 HR, 104 RBI, .303 AVG, 4 SB, 166 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR

On the surface, it looks like J.D. Martinez had a huge power breakout in 2017, but he's actually always possessed this kind of power. His wRC+'s from 2014 to 2016 were 154, 136, and 141, but it didn't show up as much in his raw numbers because Comerica Park suppresses home run power. His numbers with the Tigers in 2017 were in fact better (.305/.388/.630, enough for a 160 wRC+), but they weren't wholly out of line for his career norms. However, when he was traded to the Diamondbacks, who play in hitter-friendly Chase Field, his slash line shot up to .302/.366/.741 with a not-too-different 172 wRC+ (remember, wRC+ is park-adjusted). This isn't to say his 2017 wasn't a career year, but it doesn't change the way I think of Martinez as a hitter by too much. In fact, I already loved him as a hitter before, and this raw number breakout just confirms it. Unless he signs with a team that plays in one of the West Coast pitchers' parks, expect him to continue to post better numbers than he did in Detroit simply due to the shape of the park around him. Martinez is a first rate bat who can anchor a lineup. For his career, the 30 year old South Florida native has 152 home runs, a .285/.342/.514 slash line, and 13.5 fWAR over 772 games.

2. Lorenzo Cain (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 15 HR, 49 RBI, .300 AVG, 26 SB, 115 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR

Lorenzo Cain quietly had another big year in 2017, slashing .300/.363/.440 with 15 home runs and 26 stolen bases, leading all free agent outfielders with 4.1 fWAR. He possesses a rare combination of elite speed and high on-base ability, which has enabled him to be a prototypical leadoff hitter with above average center field defense. His 8.4% walk rate in 2017 was a career high, only helping his case. The only reason to be weary of Cain as a free agent, aside from cost, is that much of his value comes from his speed and that at 31, he may start to slow down soon. That hasn't happened yet, as according to Baseball Savant, his sprint speed actually went up in 2017, from 28.8 and 28.7 feet per second in 2015 and 2016, respectively, to 29.1 feet per second in 2017. For his career, outfielder out of the Florida panhandle has 57 home runs, a .290/.342/.421 slash line, 127 stolen bases, and 23.5 fWAR over 756 games.

3. Jay Bruce (Previous Team: Indians. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 36 HR, 101 RBI, .254 AVG, 1 SB, 118 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR

Jay Bruce is a power bat who doesn't provide much in the way of on-base percentage (.324 last year), but he clubs home runs with consistency and will be great in the middle of whatever lineup chooses him. This past season, he slashed .254/.324/.508 with 36 home runs and a 118 wRC+, posting his best overall season since 2013. Since he debuted not long after his 21st birthday, it's easy to forget that he won't turn 31 until April, and he'll look to keep mashing wherever he signs on. For his career, the Beaumont, Texas native has 277 home runs, a .249/.319/.472 slash line, and 20.3 fWAR over 1416 games.

4. Carlos Gonzalez (Previous Team: Rockies. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 14 HR, 57 RBI, .262 AVG, 3 SB, 84 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR

This year was a bit of a lost year for Carlos Gonzalez, as he missed some time with a shoulder injury and finished with a .262/.339/.423 slash line and 14 home runs in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. The aggregate numbers don't really tell the whole story, as he did surge in September (.377/.484/.766, 6 HR) after struggling for most of the year. He also had terrible home/road splits, slashing a mighty .323/.403/.520 with eight home runs at Coors but a futile .203/.274/.332 with six home runs on the road. Whichever team signs him will be banking on a bounce back, as he did slash .298/.350/.505 with 28 home runs a year ago, good for a 110 wRC+ when you adjust for the Coors Field effect. For his career, CarGo has 215 home runs, a .288/.346/.511 slash line, and 22.9 fWAR over 1200 games.

5. Carlos Gomez (Previous Team: Rangers. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 17 HR, 51 RBI, .255 AVG, 13 SB, 110 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR

It's hard to tell what to make of Carlos Gomez. In 2014, he slashed .284/.356/.477 with 23 home runs and 34 stolen bases, racking up 5.7 fWAR. Then everything fell apart in 2015, as he slashed just .255/.314/.409 with 12 home runs and 17 stolen bases, dropping to 2.7 fWAR. He got off to an even worse start in 2016, slashing .210/.272/.322 with five home runs and 13 stolen bases in 85 games for the Astros before being traded to the Rangers, where he completely altered his approach to hitting. The results were immediate, as he finished out the year slashing .284/.362/.543 with eight home runs and five stolen bases in 33 games with the Rangers, and he was expected to carry his new approach into 2017. However, that only happened in part, as his .255/.340/.462 line with 17 home runs and 13 stolen bases was better than in years past, but not nearly what he was in those early years with the Brewers. Whoever signs Gomez is very much gambling on the soon-to-be 32 year old, which is why he may come at a bargain price. For his career, the Dominican who can do it all on his best days has 133 home runs, a .256/.315/.419 slash line, 252 stolen bases, and 28.5 fWAR over 1309 games.

6. Austin Jackson (Previous Team: Indians. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 7 HR, 35 RBI, .318 AVG, 3 SB, 131 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR

Austin Jackson has been inconsistent throughout his career, but in 85 games for the Indians this past season, he posted excellent offensive numbers by slashing .318/.387/.482 with seven home runs and a 131 wRC+, also making arguably the best defensive play of the year. Teams should be weary of signing Jackson if they're expecting last year's offensive numbers, though, as he slashed just .254/.318/.343 (81 wRC+) without any home runs in 54 games for the White Sox in 2016. He's a mixed bag, but he could be a very useful fourth outfielder or a mediocre starter. For his career, the Dallas area native has 62 home runs, a .275/.336/.403 slash line, 111 stolen bases, and 19.8 fWAR over 999 games.

7. Jon Jay (Previous Team: Cubs. 2018 Age: 33)

2017 Stats: 2 HR, 34 RBI, .296 AVG, 6 SB, 101 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR

Jon Jay has virtually no power, but he's a decent defender in center field who can get on base at a good clip. This past season was a fair assessment of his ability, as he slashed .296/.374/.375 with a pair of home runs and a 101 wRC+, virtually league average production overall. On defense, he's not particularly fast but catches everything within his range, so he does fit in center field if you need him there. He can be a starter on a below average team or a very good fourth outfielder on any team. For his career, the 32 year old former Miami Hurricane has 33 home runs, a .288/.355/.383 slash line, 51 stolen bases, and 14.1 fWAR over 988 games.

8. Melky Cabrera (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 33-34)

2017 Stats: 17 HR, 85 RBI, .285 AVG, 1 SB, 98 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

Melky Cabrera's 2017 numbers look good on the surface, but advanced metrics don't like him much. His slash line of .285/.324/.423 was essentially league average, as he showed more in the batting average department but wasn't able to augment it with enough walks to make it a strength. For his career, his walk rates have usually sat between six and eight percent, around league average, but that plummeted to a career low 5.4% in 2017 and sapped much of his offensive value. That said, Cabrera can still swing it, producing double digit home runs and slugging at least .394 in each of the past four seasons. If he can get back to being patient at the plate (which is possible considering his 46.1% swing rate was below his career average of 46.3%), he could be a productive regular in 2018, but he also turns 34 in August and may begin to slow down soon. For his career, the Dominican has 131 home runs, a .286/.335/.418 slash line, 98 stolen bases, and 13.4 fWAR over 1676 games.

9. Jose Bautista (Previous Team: Blue Jays. 2018 Age: 37)

2017 Stats: 23 HR, 65 RBI, .203 AVG, 6 SB, 80 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR

It may be surprising to see Jose Bautista ranked this low, but keep in mind that he just turned 37 and he is coming off a year where he slashed .203/.306/.366 with 23 home runs in 157 games. Right now, his value comes almost exclusively from power and walks, and at this point in his career, he is unlikely to turn it around. His strikeout rate jumped to a career high 24.8% this year, and at this point he's probably no better than a decent DH. However, it's always nice to have star power in your lineup, and Bautista can put fans in the seats at least early in the season. For his career, the Dominican has 331 home runs, a .250/.362/.480 slash line, and 33.7 fWAR over 1676 games.

10. Curtis Granderson (Previous Team: Dodgers. 2018 Age: 37)

2017 Stats: 26 HR, 64 RBI, .212 AVG, 6 SB, 105 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR

Curtis Granderson may have struggled like crazy after a trade to the Dodgers (.161/.288/.366 in 36 games), but he still put up an overall line of .212/.323/.452, which is quite good and in fact above league average (105 wRC+). He's a deceptively good player, one who gets on base and hits for power, it's hard to ignore that late season slump and the fact that he'll turn 37 in March. He should be a solid fourth outfielder on a good team or a starter on a bad team, but at the very least, he is a positive presence in the clubhouse. For his career, the UI-Chicago alumnus has 319 home runs, a .252/.339/.472 slash line, 151 stolen bases, and 46.1 fWAR over 1796 games.

11. Howie Kendrick (Previous Team: Nationals. 2018 Age: 34-35)

2017 Stats: 9 HR, 41 RBI, .315 AVG, 12 SB, 121 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR

Howie Kendrick boosted his stock with a big year with the bat, slashing .315/.368/.475 with nine home runs in 91 games, playing left field, second base, and first base. I wouldn't expect the same numbers in 2018 due to a high BABIP (.378 over a career .340) despite a regular hard-hit rate (31.4% over a career 31.3%). Still, he provides positional flexibility and has been a fairly consistent player throughout his career, so he could fill a super-utility role with his next team. For his career, the 34 year old out of St. John's River State has 104 home runs, a .291/.334/.421 slash line, 123 stolen bases, and 28.3 fWAR over 1435 games.

12. Seth Smith (Previous Team: Orioles. 2018 Age: 35)

2017 Stats: 13 HR, 32 RBI, .258 AVG, 2 SB, 105 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

Seth Smith can still hit, as evidenced by a .258/.340/.433 slash line and 105 wRC+ in 2017, but he turned 35 in September and doesn't provide any defensive value, so you'll be buying the bat with him. He also can only hit right handed pitching, so he's strictly a platoon bat. That said, he has moderate power and walks a fair amount, making him a solid option down in the lineup. For his career, the former Ole Miss Rebel has 126 home runs, a .261/.344/.446 slash line, and 13.7 fWAR over 1249 games.

Others: Cameron Maybin (10 HR, .228/.318/.365, 88 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR), Nori Aoki (5 HR, .277/.335/.393, 97 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR), Matt Holliday (19 HR, .231/.316/.432, 98 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR), Michael Saunders (6 HR, .202/.256/.344, 53 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR), Jayson Werth (10 HR, .226/.322/.393, 88 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR)