2023 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

The Reds went all over the place playing games with their bonus pool, not handing out a signing bonus anywhere close to slot value (either way above or way below) until their sixth pick. They went way above slot on a trio of high schoolers in second rounder Sammy Stafura, fourth rounder Cole Schoenwetter, and fourteenth rounder Kyle Henley, paying for those overages with sizable below slot bonuses to first rounder Rhett Lowder and third rounder Hunter Hollan in addition to other smaller scale savings elsewhere. Overall, I like a lot of the talent they pulled in and I can at least see the logic in the picks I didn't like as much, and you can't deny that there is a ton of talent in this class. Interestingly, only three of the nine pitchers the Reds drafted and signed have gotten on a mound in games so far, and only two have thrown more than one inning total.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-7: RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $6.28 million. Signing bonus: $5.7 million ($575,200 below slot value).
My rank: #16. MLB Pipeline: #6. Baseball America: #8. Prospects Live: #9.
LSU ace and eventual first overall pick Paul Skenes deservedly earned most of the buzz this spring among college pitchers, but Skenes aside, no pitcher in the country was as impressive as Rhett Lowder. Already the reigning ACC Pitcher of the Year from 2022, he put together an unbelievable 2023 with a 1.87 ERA and a 143/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home park and in an era of increased offense around college baseball. Lowder has always shown impressive pitchability, enabling him to jump into the Wake Forest rotation as a true freshman, and now with improved stuff he has become an elite prospect. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 97 with some run. He shows strong feel for an above average slider that has gotten better and better, with some flashing plus. His changeup is a true weapon and his best pitch, consistently grading out as plus while flashing plus-plus. Everything plays up because Lowder sequences and locates his entire pitch mix extremely effectively, with plus command that lets him attack hitters however he wants to. The 6'2" righty has an uptempo delivery but repeats it extremely well, effectively channeling energy up the chain and helping him maintain his stuff deep into starts. In an era of high energy pitchers modeling their games after guys like Max Scherzer, Lowder provides a bit of a contrast with a calmer demeanor as he quietly carves up opposing lineups. He's a watercolor artist in his spare time and looks like an artist up there on the mound, where his attention to detail makes him a bit of a throwback prospect. Besides Skenes, there is not a safer bet to become a mid-rotation starter in this draft class.

CBA-38: RHP Ty Floyd, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $2.26 million. Signing bonus: $2.1 million ($127,600 below slot value).
My rank: #55. MLB Pipeline: #58. Baseball America: #44. Prospects Live: #55.
Ty Floyd has been a known commodity to scouts for a long time now. A star at Rockmart High School in Northwest Georgia, he ranked as the #98 player on my board in 2020 but elected to attend LSU to help build what would become a National Championship program. Eligible as a sophomore in 2022 due to an early birthday, he looked good but hadn't quite put it together yet, coming in at #198 on my board. In 2023, he slowly crept up boards throughout the season and pushed back into the top one hundred range, then saw his stock explode with a magnificent seventeen strikeout performance against Florida in that National Championship series. Overall, he finished the season with a 4.35 ERA and a 120/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings and eventually pushed his way all the way into the top forty picks. Floyd is a great athlete that sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with his fastball, coming in with deceptive riding life from a lower slot and short arm action. Previously all arm strength, his secondaries have stepped forward that year and that made all of the difference in his profile. He now complements his average curveball with a new, above average slider, while a previously below average changeup has stepped forward to become a usable weapon. His command has improved from below average to fringy as he smoothed out his delivery, though that is one area the Reds would like to see him continue making progress. Between the arm strength, athleticism, physicality (listed at 6'2", 200 pounds), and positive trajectory on his secondaries and command, the Reds believe they have a mid-rotation starter on their hands with some real upside.

2-43: SS Sammy Stafura, Walter Panas HS [NY] {video}
Slot value: $2 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($499,300 above slot value).
My rank: #24. MLB Pipeline: #32. Baseball America: #33. Prospects Live: #25.
The Reds got a tremendous talent here in Sammy Stafura, and for half a million above slot vale, they really didn't have to break the bank to sign him away from a Clemson commitment. He was a known prospect heading into the spring, but really pushed his stock up with a tremendous performance once the New York weather warmed up. Stafura has always been a high contact bat, with quick hands and excellent feel for the barrel that help him keep swing and miss to a minimum, even against high quality competition. The bat path is a bit swoopy and will need to be ironed out so he can get more extension, but he's a cold weather bat and it hasn't hindered him yet. Though he's not huge at 6', 190 pounds, he has filled out a bit and now projects for average power, which will go great with his above average hit tool. Overall, it will be plenty of bat to profile in an every day role because he has a chance to be a plus defender at shortstop. Beyond his plus speed, he shows great body control at the shortstop position with a strong arm that makes him a great fit to stick there long term. There are some questions about his bat coming from a lower competition level in New York's Hudson Valley region, though from what I saw over the summer he had no issues with advanced pitching. I see him as a high on-base guy with the ability to pop 15-20 home runs per season and swipe a few bags while playing strong defense. He got off to a poor start in the Arizona Complex League, where he slashed .071/.212/.190 with one home run and a 23/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games, but he'll look to turn it around in 2024.

3-74: LHP Hunter Hollan, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $975,100. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($377,600 below slot value).
My rank: #155. MLB Pipeline: #100. Baseball America: #144. Prospects Live: #150.
The Reds went for a little more safety here with Hunter Hollan, a college arm with some strong SEC performance under his belt. Hollan began his career at San Jacinto JC in Houston, then transferred to Arkansas for his junior season and looked like a star in fall practice, where his stuff ticked up across the board. It settled back down in 2023, where he finished with a 4.13 ERA and a 74/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings, and the Reds signed him for a significant discount in the third round by giving him mid-fourth round money. After fluctuating a little, he now sits in the low 90's with his fastball, which topped at 97 in the fall, and he can work it into a hard cutter around 90 when he wants some movement. He throws a distinct curveball and slider, both of which have big depth but may benefit from some added power. An average changeup rounds out the arsenal. The 6'5" lefty is probably more of a pitchability guy at this point, effectively commanding both his fastball and his offspeed stuff to both sides of the plate so he can work them off each other and execute the game plan. There's still some projection remaining on his big frame too, so if he regains the added power he had in the fall of 2022, he has a shot to become a mid-rotation starter. The more likely role is probably that of a back-end starter since he doesn't really have a putaway pitch at this point, but with his deep arsenal, size, and pitching acumen, he should develop into a nice innings eater for the Reds. 

4-105: RHP Cole Schoenwetter, San Marcos HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $640,300. Signing bonus: $1.9 million ($1.26 million above slot value).
My rank: #64. MLB Pipeline: #43. Baseball America: #54. Prospects Live: #63.
Here in the fourth round, the Reds spent massively above slot to reel in Cole Schoenwetter, giving him close to the slot value for the #45 pick to sign away from a UC Santa Barbara commitment here in the fourth round. He brings a great combination of stuff, projectability, and and athleticism, and the Reds are betting big on his front of the rotation upside. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 98 at best, with riding and running action from a lower release point that make it very tough to square up. He flashes plus with a big, power curveball with two plane action and also shows an inconsistent changeup, though it too looks like an above average pitch at best and should get there consistently with more refinement. The 6'3" righty has better command than you would expect from someone with stuff as explosive as his, though he can be prone to overthrowing and goes through bouts of wildness. The development path is pretty clear here. Schoenwetter will need to refine that changeup a little bit, which should be accomplishable by repetition alone, and he'll need to learn to better keep his long arms and legs in sync as he works through his delivery. Given his feel for spin, it would be nice to add a slider to give hitters another look, but that would be icing on the cake. If the Southern California native can accomplish those things, he has a chance to be an impact arm for the Reds.

5-141: C Connor Burns, Long Beach State {video}
Slot value: $451,100. Signing bonus: $448,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #169. Baseball America: #130. Prospects Live: #233.
Connor Burns was on my radar at the end of the draft cycle, but he was among the next group of names that I didn't quite get around to researching (it always has to end somewhere). Burns has a unique profile, and it will be fun to track his progress. He was completely useless with the bat over his first two seasons at Long Beach State, slashing .161/.219/.249 with four home runs and an ugly 82/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 games, but he still got his name penciled in every day because of his defense. Burns is an elite defensive catcher, and that may be putting it lightly. He's extremely twitchy for a catcher, popping out of his crouch as quickly as anybody to make plays on balls other catchers can't reach. It also helps him put his throws right on the money to cut down potential stolen bases no matter where the pitch is. Few catchers I've ever seen can make a play on a ball in the dirt and to his left or right and recover in time to cut down a runner. He can throw from multiple angles with precise accuracy, and beyond that, his plus-plus arm strength means he's getting it there in a hurry. In today's era of larger bases and more steals, that's an extremely valuable profile to have. So if he can hit at all, that's huge. Fortunately, Burns broke out with the bat in 2023, slashing .300/.368/.596 with 14 home runs and a 59/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. After striking out 38.1% of the time over his first two seasons while walking just 5.6% of the time, he brought those together with a 25.0% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. He's still an aggressive hitter, but the chase rate is now under control, though he swings and misses a lot on balls both inside and outside the zone and that's an area for concern. He does show average power with a 90th percentile exit velocity approaching 105, and he homered four times in 23 games on the Cape last summer despite otherwise struggling with the bat. With his elite defense, the Southern California native should have a pretty safe path to the big leagues as a light hitting backup catcher. If he can make just enough contact to tap his power in games, he could play every day and hit at the bottom of the lineup. So far, he's slashing .173/.304/.373 with three home runs and a 43/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona, which is about what you might expect given his profile.

6-168: OF Ethan O'Donnell, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $348,400. Signing bonus: $307,500 ($40,900 below slot value).
My rank: #193. MLB Pipeline: #153. Baseball America: #153. Prospects Live: #119.
Ethan O'Donnell began his career at Northwestern, then transferred to UVA for his junior season and put up a huge year, slashing .354/.448/.587 with 13 home runs and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. There is no standout tool here, but his track record of performance speaks for itself. He uses a whippy left handed swing to spray line drives around the field while showing some pop to the pull side, though with below average top end exit velocities, I'm not sure how much he'll be able to tap that power in pro ball. He's an aggressive hitter, but he makes it work by making plenty of contact both inside and outside the zone, and he made the jump from Big Ten to ACC pitching with ease last spring. Meanwhile, he's an above average runner with a strong glove in center field, likely enough to stick there long term. I see him as bit of a similar pick to last year's CBB pick Justin Boyd, with fourth outfielder upside if he can hold back on quality offspeed stuff and continue to make the most of his modest raw power in games. He's off to the hottest start in the Reds' draft class, slashing .326/.423/.537 with four home runs and a 23/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona.

8-221: 1B Carter Graham, Stanford {video}
Slot value: $215,400. Signing bonus: $212,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #221. Baseball America: #218. Prospects Live: #285.
In Carter Graham, the Reds are buying the power exclusively. He barely played as a freshman but exploded as a sophomore in 2022, when he slashed .331/.399/.642 with 22 home runs and established himself as one of the best hitters in the conference, but he struggled over the summer on the Cape (.200/.262/.293) and got off to a slow start in 2023. After hitting .067 over his first eight games, he slowly started to turn it around through March and April but never really got going until May, where he turned on the jets and ended up finishing the season slashing .315/.390/.558 with 15 home runs and a 55/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Graham has tremendous raw power that has helped him blast 37 home runs in 138 games over the past two seasons, and it will no doubt play up in pro ball. The hit tool is a bit more questionable, but he can get aggressive and doesn't have the pure bat to ball skills to make up for swinging at bad pitches. It's a quick right handed swing but it can get swoopy and stiff at times, likely playing in to that below average hit tool. At 6'2", 230 pounds, the Los Angeles native doesn't look like an athlete but he moves pretty well at first base, so while that's about the only position he can play with his below average speed, he'll make it work. His defensive limitations will put pressure on his bat, and unless he takes a step forward with his hit tool, he likely profiles as a platoon bat or bench option. So far, he's slashing .205/.321/.318 with one home run and a 16/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona.

11-318: 1B Jack Moss, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #209. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #191. Prospects Live: #166.
Jack Moss was the very last player on my rankings, but he's still an interesting prospect. He spent his freshman season at Arizona State before transferring to Texas A&M as a sophomore, where he has done nothing but rake to the tune of a .368/.447/.493 slash line, ten home runs, and a 93/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games in two seasons. Moss is an extraordinarily professional hitter that takes great at bats, running low chase rates and high contact rates on his way to walking more than he struck out in 2023. It's an opposite field-heavy approach, as he loves to get his hands inside the ball and drive them to left even on inside pitches. This inside-out approach does limit his power, and trying to elevate the ball more in 2023 didn't help his in-game power output. He doesn't leave the yard often and he doesn't always drive the ball with authority, leading to a well below average 90th percentile exit velocity which is concerning. He does show solid pull side power when he turns on the ball, but does so much more effectively on a line than in the air. The Reds could try to overhaul his approach a little bit and bump that 40 grade power up to 50 by sacrificing some hit tool, but I'm not sure he's built for that. Meanwhile, he's limited defensively and he'll need to hit for impact to work his way up, so he may not have a choice. So far, he's slashing .303/.405/.333 with a 20/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona, which is about what you'd expect from his profile.

14-408: OF Kyle Henley, Denmark HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $395,000 ($245,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #269. Prospects Live: #437.
The Reds pulled out the checkbook one more time here in the fourteenth round, where they gave Kyle Henley fifth round money to sign away from a Georgia Tech commitment. He's going to take some patience to develop, as he's fairly raw, but there is a ton of upside. Henley immediately stands out for his elite speed, which is truly a game changer when he gets a chance to turn it loose. A right handed hitter, he has very quick hands in the box that help him fling the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He's extremely projectable at 6'3", 180 pounds, so while the power isn't really there yet, he has a very good chance to grow into it with his size and bat speed. The hit tool is coming along as well, looking better in the spring against strong Atlanta-area competition than it did last summer against national showcase competition. All put together, the upside is tremendous, though of course it needs to be put together. Henley's plus-plus speed also helps him in center field, where he shows a solid arm and could develop into a well above average defender. He saw brief action in the Arizona Complex League, picking up three singles in thirteen at bats (.231 AVG) while striking out five times in four games.

2023 MLB Draft: Ten options for the Nationals at second overall

Had draft order rules not changed with the most recent CBA, the Nationals would be picking first overall for the first time since their back to back picks in 2009 and 2010, which netted the team future franchise cornerstones Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. The CBA created a draft lottery that no longer guaranteed the Nationals the first overall pick, but all told, they should be very happy to come away with the second overall pick.

Mike Rizzo and the Nationals have drafted incredibly poorly over the past decade or so, not only whiffing on almost every single first round pick but also failing to find value later in the draft, which in reality matters even more than that first pick. The team has not drafted and developed an impact player since Anthony Rendon in 2011 – not in the first round, not in the second round, and not in the twentieth round. That is the result of a player development system that has fallen far, far behind most of the rest of the league, relying on traditional development methods rather than embracing new technology and trends in the game. Fortunately, however, the tide appears to be turning. While I wasn't thrilled with the 2021 and 2022 drafts as a whole, I was thrilled with the Brady House and Elijah Green picks as first rounders. And while it remains to be seen how much use the organization gets out of the slew of new hires in the analytics and player development realms, the hiring spree represents a very positive sign in its own right.

That hiring spree might make it hard to peg just what kind of players the Nationals are looking to target in this draft, but in terms of that first pick, things get a little easier to prognosticate. There are only so many names in play at the very top no matter a team's drafting style, and they'll probably have their eye on the top half dozen or so prospects once the day rolls around. 

For now, though, we have a whole season to play and the names will not be the same in July, so we can have a little bit of fun with this list. Common knowledge would recognize that the Nationals are far deeper in young outfielders than they are in any other demographic, which would seemingly rule out names like Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Max Clark, and Walker Jenkins at the top, but there is a very important extra bit of context to bring home; you don't draft for need. If the best player available is an outfielder, it doesn't matter that the Nationals already have Elijah Green, James Wood, and Cristhian Vaquero, among others, in the system – you draft the outfielder anyways. That also means there is no need to jump at a pitcher with this pick despite the absolute dearth of arm talent in the system, unless they determine that a pitcher is the best remaining player. Again, it doesn't matter that the Nationals have a bunch of outfielders and no pitching. If they see an outfielder as the best player available, take him and not the pitcher. With that, here are ten possibilities for the second overall pick, ranging from right-now favorites to a few wild cards that may not be in play just yet at the top of the draft but could get there with a strong spring. Remember, 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday was not in the first round conversation at all at this time a year ago.

Number in parentheses after school name denotes current rank on my draft board.

1. RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee (#3)
At this point, all signs point to Chase Dollander as the favorite for the second overall pick. I just hammered home the point that you do not draft for need, but the truth is the Nationals really, really need pitching and Dollander may very well be the best player available on draft day. In fact, many scouts have called him the best college pitcher they've seen in years, right up there alongside names like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and David Price. The Mike Rizzo we know and love would be beyond thrilled to get the Augusta, Georgia-area native into the system, so he's as good a name as any for Nationals fans to follow this spring. It's as complete a profile as you're going to find at the college level, setting up from a very athletic, projectable 6'3" frame. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has been creeping closer and closer to triple digits, adding explosive riding life from a release point that gets great extension. In a vacuum, it's one of the best fastballs in college baseball, but there is much more to the profile. Dollander also rips off a nasty slider with short, powerful sweeping action that is distinctly different from his downer curveball, while his changeup gives him a fourth average or better pitch. All of this comes from a clean, athletic delivery that helps him effectively locate his entire arsenal to both sides of the plate, ensuring every pitch is competitive and giving plenty of confidence his stuff will continue to play up in pro ball. He enters the spring as the near-consensus best pitcher in the country, and if he can stay healthy while repeating his exceptional 2022 (2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 108/13 K/BB) in the always tough SEC, it's hard to imagine Mike Rizzo passing up the chance at a future ace. Once drafted, he could move very quickly and give a much needed boost to a young Nationals pitching core currently led by Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, Cole Henry, and a bit further down, Jarlin Susana.

2. OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State (#1)

Chase Dollander may be the frontrunner for the Nationals at pick number two, but Dylan Crews is probably the better prospect at this point and sits comfortably in the top spot on my draft board. If the Pirates don't take him first overall, I would hope Rizzo and co. would pull the trigger here unless his bonus demands are outrageous. He's the kind of bat that can transform a lineup, and throwing him into that outfield mix with Green, Wood, Vaquero, Robert Hassell, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Brenner Cox might give Washington the best group of young outfielders in baseball. Crews was considered a first round talent early in the 2020 draft cycle but an up and down summer leading up to his senior year of high school dropped him closer to second round consideration. He wound up at Louisiana State and has done nothing but hit since day one, slashing .356/.458/.677 with 40 home runs over 125 games while playing a very tough SEC schedule. The power potential here is simply different. He consistently produces some of the highest exit velocities in college baseball, punishing baseballs to all fields that never seem to come down. He can take you deep to in any direction on any day of the week, profiling for 30+ home runs annually at the big league level. Crews isn't just a slugger, though – he's a very patient hitter at the plate that takes professional at bats and consistently works counts into his favor. When he does get a pitch he can do damage on, he rarely misses it, and his career 16.8% strikeout rate is very impressive as an underclassman power hitter in the SEC. He may be a little bit power over hit at this point, but it's not by much. Additionally, he started all 62 games for LSU in center field last season, bringing above average speed and a plus arm that makes him a net positive out there as well. Teams love up the middle talent early in the draft, and at least for now, Crews fits that profile. However, with numerous prospects that could fit in center field long term, he would probably profile as a right fielder in the Nationals' system and could become at least an above average defender there. He would likely move quickly and could potentially beat every outfield name I mentioned earlier to the majors.

3. SS Jacob Gonzalez, Mississippi (#4)
Dylan Crews and Chase Dollander are the top two prospects in the draft for now, but Jacob Gonzalez is the top infielder in the country and could easily hit his way into this spot just by continuing the pace he's set over his first two seasons at Ole Miss (30 HR, .315/.424/.560). The Nationals are not developing talent well at all right now, and by drafting Gonzalez, they would get one of the most big league-ready players in the class that doesn't need much development. He has impeccable feel for the strike zone, walking four more times than he struck out as a true freshman before bumping that number to eighteen as a sophomore. He is completely comfortable with premium SEC pitching and should seamlessly transition to pro pitching, perhaps enough to start off with AA Harrisburg in 2024. Gonzalez also packs plenty of strength into his 6'2" frame and channels it very well in his left handed swing, showing easy plus raw power to the pull side. He's mostly a pull hitter to this point, but his pitch recognition skills enable him to be successful with that approach even when being pitched on the outer half. It might take some tweaking in pro ball as pitchers are able to better execute to the outside corners and change speeds more effectively, but I really don't imagine he'll have any trouble at all adjusting. Unlike Crews, Gonzalez would give the Nationals an infield bat to join a pretty thin group at that position group in the system. A shortstop for now, he probably fits better at third base going forward due to below average foot speed, but he's plenty athletic enough to stick there. Gonzalez' batting average and on-base percentage dropped from .355/.443 as a freshman to .273/.405 as a sophomore as pitchers stopped pitching to him, but if he adjusts back like he is capable of, he would make a lot of sense at #2.

4. OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [IN] (#2)
Could the Nationals make it three years in a row taking a prep bat? Prep bats are my favorite demographic, and the team made me very happy drafting Brady House and Elijah Green the past two seasons. If they go that route again in 2023, Max Clark is in my opinion the clear top prep player on the market with a tremendous combination of physical projection, present feel for the game, and work ethic. More so than any high school hitter in the country, I feel confident Clark is going to grow into his game naturally and become a true five tool player down the line. For now, he's hit over power with a line drive, gap to gap approach that has him hitting for high averages against elite prep pitching. He recognizes spin and can get the barrel to the ball all over the zone, utilizing a simple operation in the box rather than selling out for power and trying to do too much. That said, the power will come. He has a very well proportioned 6'1" frame with plenty of room to add strength, and he has been hitting the weight room hard to help build that strength. As he fills out physically, the power will come naturally without him having to change his approach at the plate, which should enable him to continue to hit for high averages while still putting up high home run totals. Beyond his bat, Clark is an elite defender in center field with plus-plus arm strength and plus-plus speed, making for the highest upside in the class. In some ways, he'd be a perfect complement to Green, who also shows that double plus speed and arm strength, with the right handed hitting Green a power-over-hit bat that is looking to even things out and the left handed hitting Clark a hit-over-power bat looking to tack on strength. If the draft were today, I would be thrilled with any of Crews, Dollander, or Clark in this spot no matter what the bonus demands were.

5. RHP/DH Paul Skenes, Louisiana State (#12)

As I've mentioned, the Nationals' system is almost completely barren of pitching talent and they could really use an impact arm to give the system a boost. At this point, I much prefer Chase Dollander (and Hurston Waldrep for that matter), but Paul Skenes has generated buzz near the top of the draft and does feel like a guy Mike Rizzo could target if he takes well to the SEC.  He dominated the very hitter-friendly Mountain West Conference while at Air Force to the tune of a 2.73 ERA and a 96/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.2 innings last year, and this year he joins LSU in hopes of proving his chops against the best hitters in the country. The stuff is trending up and up and up, and he looked even better this fall when he ran his fastball up to 99 and flashed plus with both his slider and his changeup. Big and durable at 6'6" and 235 pounds, he pounds the strike zone and creates difficult angle with his size. In the spring, he'll need to show that his improving stuff can miss bats in the SEC after running a more-good-than-great 27.0% strikeout rate at Air Force last year, when his fastball was a few ticks slower and his slider played closer to average. That version of Paul Skenes would probably fit closer to the back of the first round, but showing that mid 90's velocity and plus offspeed stuff over a full spring season would make him a top ten prospect. Of course, he comes with that service academy work ethic that only adds to the profile.

6. RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest (#13)
Rhett Lowder probably fits closer to the middle of the first round at this point and my ranking reflects that, but he's the kind of pitcher that could play his way to an under slot deal with the Nationals if he builds his stock a little this spring. Again, there isn't much pitching talent in the system right now, and Lowder's advanced all around game would be a welcome site if he takes another step forward this spring. He's up to 97 with his fastball and and shows above average with his slider and changeup, giving him a nearly big league ready arsenal as it is. Lowder also commands everything very well for his age and could report straight to AA Harrisburg to start 2024, with advanced feel for pitching that is hard to find at his age, especially among pitchers with his kind of stuff. At this point, he lacks a true swing and miss offering and profiles more as a safe bet #3 starter than a true top of the rotation stalwart, so there is work to be done. If he wants to go second overall, he'll need to miss more bats this year and improve on last year's 25.1% strikeout rate either by adding some life to his fastball or some snap to his slider. I certainly believe that is possible, and if he can do that, he's the kind of pitcher Mike Rizzo would love to add into the system on a below slot deal.

7. RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida (#7)
Hurston Waldrep is a very different pitcher, but he does find himself in a similar position to Paul Skenes transferring into the SEC. He comes from Southern Miss, where he struck out 140 batters in 90 innings for a sky high 37.3% strikeout rate. There are some very strong lineups in Conference USA, but the jump to the SEC will certainly be a test for Waldrep and therefore an opportunity for him to boost his stock even further. With an uptempo delivery and a skinny build at 6'2", he doesn't look on the surface like the low risk, steady starting pitcher that you'd think Rizzo would target at the top of the draft (Dollander, Skenes, and Lowder fit that description better), but he is a little reminiscent of other top ten picks like Carson Fulmer and Jack Leiter. Everything with Waldrep is explosive. The fastball is easily in the mid 90's and approaches triple digits with big time riding action, while the rest of his arsenal is equally impressive. He shows a hard slider, a power curve, and a rapidly improving splitter that all flash at least above average if not plus, so it's hard not to see him continuing to miss SEC bats in bunches like he did in the C-USA. With average command, the SEC will be a test as more advanced hitters will make it a little tougher for him to control the strike zone. He walked 8.8% of his opponents last year, which isn't a huge number but is still the highest on this list above Dollander (4.2%), Lowder (6.2%), and Skenes (8.5%). If he can continue to elicit chases and avoid walks with Florida while maintaining his stuff and health, Rizzo may be interested in his services on a below-slot deal, especially if Dollander, Lowder, and Skenes don't seize their opportunity.

8. 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian (#9)

The last time the Nationals drafted, developed, and reaped the benefits from an impact player was 2011, when they took Anthony Rendon with the sixth overall pick out of Rice. Twelve years later, they may have an opportunity to make a similar pick from the Lone Star State in TCU's Brayden Taylor, though Taylor has the added benefit of batting left handed. While there's no matching the otherworldly numbers Rendon put up for the Owls from 2009-2011 (52 HR, .373/.505/.680 in 187 games), Taylor has been a one man wrecking crew in his own right for two years now (25 HR, .319/.450/.574 in 117 games) and still won't turn 21 until May. He fits what the Nationals like as an advanced, all-around bat that can do a little bit of everything. Taylor takes extremely professional at bats, as evidenced by drawing more walks than strikeouts in both his underclass seasons. He controls the strike zone, rarely chasing but consistently doing damage on the pitches he does choose to attack, helping him produce elite on-base percentages of .445 and .454 the last two seasons. He's definitely hit over power at this point, but he does show average power overall and can take you deep to the pull side when he turns on one. At this point, I don't think he's in play at the second overall pick, but he's not far off and his to do list is pretty simple. Fairly slender at 6'1", tacking on some strength and tapping more all-fields power in 2023 would certainly move him closer to the conversation, and given his youth and athleticism I could definitely see that happening. Taylor has also played almost exclusively third base during his time at TCU, but with Tommy Sacco gone to the Astros, he could get some looks at shortstop this year. He has shown well at the hot corner to this point and if he also takes well to shortstop, that would be another feather in his cap. Show both the added power and the aptitude at shortstop, and you have a strong candidate to go second overall to the Nationals.

9. 3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell HS [FL] (#16)
Usually, teams prefer up the middle talent at the top of the draft. Aidan Miller, the younger brother of Reds prospect Jackson Miller, may not quite fit that description, but if he can prove what he needs to prove in 2023, he could work his way as high as the Nationals' pick at #2. It's some of the best power in the prep class, coming naturally from a big league body at 6'2" that enables him to tap it consistently without selling out. Miller also takes big league at bats, with a disciplined approach that helps him stay in the zone and attack pitches he can do damage on, though like many power hitters, he can be prone to chasing fastballs up. There are some moving parts in the swing which hamper his pure hit tool, representing an opportunity where he can improve and potentially push his draft position up, which presently stands closer to the middle of the first round. Given that he'll already be 19 well before the draft, the Nationals will want to see that polished up a bit before rolling the dice at pick #2. More pressing, though, especially at the top of the draft, is his future position. A plus arm gives him a chance to stick at third base, but he's not a quick twitch guy and can't afford to slow down much more. If he can come out and continue to show good range at the hot corner this spring and help Rizzo and co. feel comfortable that he can avoid a move to first base, it would make them much more likely to pull the trigger this early in the draft, especially if his hit tool ticks up a little in addition. He wouldn't be the first player from J.W. Mitchell High School in the Tampa suburbs to star for the Nationals, as the school was also one of the many stops Tyler Clippard made as he bounced around from high school to high school as an amateur.

10. SS Roch Cholowsky, Hamilton HS [AZ] (#20)
We'll round it out with a wild card pick. In ranking Cholowsky 20th on my board, I'm actually significantly higher on him than Baseball America (#28), Prospects Live (#33), and MLB Pipeline (#35), and he still has a ways to go to get to #2. Still, eventual 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday was ranked outside the top 50 on many lists at this point a year ago, and I think Cholowsky has a chance to be that guy in 2023. The Phoenix-area product is a fantastic athlete that actually has a chance to play quarterback at UCLA in addition to baseball, and it's that physical upside that makes me think he could make the jump. He moves effortlessly on the diamond, showing above average range and arm strength that makes the shortstop position look easy, so he already has that up the middle defensive projection that teams prefer at the top of the draft. Of course, you're not drafting anything less than a future top/middle of the order bat at pick #2, and Cholowsky does have some work to do to get there. The good news is the foundation is there, so if he comes out in 2023 a little stronger and a little more polished, he could fly up boards. He already shows very natural bat to ball skills and for the most part combines that with good swing decisions, making for a potential above average hit tool in the future. His swing is also very fluid and with the physical upside I mentioned, any strength gains could get him to at least average power if not better, especially as he learns to make better use of his legs. So there are two things that need to happen for Cholowsky to make the leap: more polish, and more physicality. I think the physicality is more or less a given and could easily show up this spring, while the polish may come a little later given his two-sport nature but is also pretty strong as it is. I really like this kid and I would be thrilled to see him swing his way up to #2.

Other Top Ranked Candidates

OF Wyatt Lanford, Florida (#5)

OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS [NC] (#8)
SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonnor HS [PA] (#10)

OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt (#11)

SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon (#14)

Other Dark Horse Candidates

OF Travis Honeyman, Boston College (#6)

OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech (#18)
SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest HS [FL] (#21)
LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy [MA] (#22)
LHP Grayson Hitt, Alabama (#37)

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at the ACC

2022 draftees: 57. Top school: Georgia Tech (8)
2022 preseason writeup (published 10/2/2021)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-9, Royals: OF Gavin Cross (Virginia Tech)
1-11, Mets: C Kevin Parada (Georgia Tech)
2-40, Dodgers: C Dalton Rushing (Louisville)
2-42, Orioles: 3B Max Wagner (Clemson)
2-54, Guardians: LHP Parker Messick (Florida State)
CBB-68, Twins: SS Tanner Schobel (Virginia Tech)
CBB-70, Rays: SS Chandler Simpson (Georgia Tech)

The ACC had yet another year of 50+ draftees, dominated by position players as the league was known around college baseball for its loaded lineups. Each of the first four players drafted and six of the first seven were position players, led by first rounders Gavin Cross of Virginia Tech and Kevin Parada of Georgia Tech. The league looks perhaps even deeper this year, with close to a dozen players with a realistic chance to play their way into the first round conversation quickly in 2023. Obviously we won't see that many drafted there, but every player on this list could realistically be one of those names called in the first round come July 2023. Like last year, it's a hitter-heavy list, something that is becoming part of the ACC's brand. Let's look through the top dozen prospects in the conference.

1. OF Travis Honeyman, Boston College.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 10/2/2001. Hometown: Massapequa, NY.
2022: 6 HR, .329/.402/.506, 5 SB, 16/11 K/BB in 41 games.
Boston College hasn't seen much team success lately with just one winning season out of the past six, but they have produced plenty of high end draft prospects including Justin Dunn, Cody Morissette, Luke Gold, Sal Frelick, the latter of whom shares some similarities to Travis Honeyman. Frelick, the fifteenth overall pick in 2021, was the school's highest drafted player since fourth overall pick Tony Sanchez in 2009, and Honeyman has a chance to beat Frelick this year. After picking up one (1) hit as a freshman in 2021, he broke out as one of the team's best hitters in 2022 and and boosted his stock further with an excellent run through the Cape Cod League, where he slashed .289/.400/.530 with four home runs in 24 games. He makes a ton of contact from the right side, striking out just 8.7% of the time at BC in 2022 and a still-solid 18.2% on the Cape, with exceptional adjustability in his swing and the ability to get to balls all over the zone. He's similar to Frelick in that sense, but at 6'2", his long arms and extremely quick hands help him produce high exit velocities and above average pull side power in games. It's hard to bust him in, as he can pull those hands in and turn on the ball with the best of them, but he has no problem going the other way either and the power will start to come that way as he gets stronger. The Long Island native is not quite as fast as Frelick and is not guaranteed to stick in center field, but he may hit for more impact while maintaining nearly as high an on-base percentage, though to this point he makes too much contact early in counts to draw high numbers of walks. Honeyman has plenty of upside, with the chance to hit 20+ home runs a year with high, batting average-driven on-base percentages, potentially from center field.

2. OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 185 lbs. Born 3/13/2002. Hometown: Boalsburg, PA.
2022: 14 HR, .375/.452/.664, 10 SB, 51/32 K/BB in 58 games.
Jack Hurley might be the most exciting player in the ACC. An immediate contributor as a freshman in 2021, he broke out as one of the best hitters in arguably the best lineup in college baseball in 2022, slashing an incredible .375/.452/.664 in 58 games. He brings a high energy style of play to the ballpark, taking big swings in the box, searching for extra bases where he can find them, and running full speed into the outfield wall if need be. He's not huge at six feet tall, but he generates a ton of torque with those big swings and taps above average power consistently in games, naturally lifting and driving the ball to all fields. He previously struggled with swing and miss, striking out 30.8% as a freshman, but he dropped that rate to 18.8% in 2022 and hopes to continue trending in the right direction in 2023. He hammers fastballs and is improving against offspeed stuff, so that will be his primary focus in 2023. Defensively, he payed left field last year while Gavin Cross manned center, but he's plenty fast enough to slide over to center this year and should be able to stick there in pro ball as well. It's a profile littered with 55's and if he can continue to improve against offspeed stuff, he has a chance to become an impact player at the major league level that provides value in a multitude of ways.

3. 3B Yohandy Morales, Miami.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 210 lbs. Born 10/9/2001. Hometown: Miami, FL.
2022: 18 HR, .329/.411/.650, 6 SB, 60/34 K/BB in 60 games.
Yohandy Morales has been a priority follow for scouts down in South Florida for a while now. A big name in the 2020 high school class, he got off to a hot start before the COVID shutdown and pushed his name into top three rounds consideration, but ultimately stayed home to attend Miami. Morales burst onto the scene in Coral Gables by slashing .284/.343/.531 with eleven home runs as a freshman, then improved each number in his triple slash this past spring before a strong showing with the US Collegiate National Team over the summer. First and foremost, Morales stands out for his power. He's a big, lanky guy at 6'4", packing plenty of lean strength onto that frame that helps him put great leverage on the ball. Content with more of a line drive approach for now, he generates big exit velocities and can easily lift the ball out of the park when he wants to, and even his mishits can cause problems for pitchers. To this point, he has been a bit aggressive at the plate and has struck out north of 20% of the time in both of his collegiate seasons, so that will be something to watch this coming spring. If he can manage that and show more discipline in 2023, it's an easy first round bat that could end up with 55 hit, 60 power. Additionally, he's a solid athlete that has showed well at third base, making for a very well-rounded profile that will be very intriguing early in the draft. By cutting that strikeout rate just a little, he could easily pass Honeyman and Hurley on this list and be the first ACC player drafted.

4. 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 6/17/2002. Hometown: Valrico, FL.
2022: 23 HR, .272/.362/.602, 0 SB, 71/34 K/BB in 60 games.
In a conference full of power bats, you might not find one more prodigious than Brock Wilken. The Tampa-area product has already blasted 40 home runs over two years at Wake Forest, plus thirteen more over two Cape seasons. He really cemented himself as a top prospect in this class with a fantastic run through the Cape Cod League in 2021, just as he was turning 19 years old, and when you include his more ordinary 2022 Cape season he hit .271/.400/.471 over 73 games. So long story short, Wilken has faced a huge sample of high level pitching and has consistently performed for a long time now. While Yohandy Morales is leaner, Wilken is a barrel chested 6'4" that looks like he would fit right in for Dave Clawson on the gridiron. He deploys that copious strength into big right handed swings, and the ball just jumps off his bat like few in college baseball. He can easily put it out to any field with plus power and does plenty of damage on mishits as well, and if he makes enough contact, he could profile for thirty-plus home runs a year at the major league level. Wilken is a patient hitter that works counts well, spoiling tough pitches until he gets a good one to hit, though he does get into trouble occasionally in those deep counts and his 24.2% strikeout rate last spring was a bit higher than you'd like to see. He'll probably always struggle with swing and miss, but that grinder mentality in the box will serve him well and he has done nothing but hit for a very long time now. He also possesses a plus arm that could give him a shot at third base, though he'll need to get more agile to stick there long term. At his ceiling, he could be a similar player to Pete Alonso.

5. RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 3/8/2002. Hometown: Albemarle, NC.
2022: 11-3, 3.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 105/26 K/BB in 99.1 innings.
It's all about the bats in this conference, but Rhett Lowder has so far emerged as the best arm in the prestigious league. He jumped right into the rotation as a freshman and broke out as a sophomore, striking out over one hundred batters along the way. There is no one plus attribute here, but Lowder does a little bit of everything well. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can get up to 97 at his best, while his slider and changeup both look consistently above average to give him three big league pitches. He commands everything well to both sides of the plate, effectively navigating the loaded lineups of the ACC by executing where he needed to. That combination of pitchability and stuff is hard to find at times, and the North Carolina native also comes with some projection in a skinny 6'2" frame. Most pitchers nowadays like to identify as a Max Scherzer-esque "psychopath" or a Landon Sims-like "bulldog" on the mound, but Lowder doesn't really fit either of those descriptions. An artist in his spare time (literally, he creates oil paintings), he's quiet and composed on the mound and doesn't let much rattle him. It's the full package as a starting pitcher, one that has a very good chance to wind up in the middle of a big league rotation.

6. RHP Teddy McGraw, Wake Forest.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 10/30/2001. Hometown: Oneonta, NY.
2022: 5-2, 4.10 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 67/38 K/BB in 70.2 innings.
We'll round out the Wake Forest section of this list with Teddy McGraw, another 6'2" righty in the Demon Deacon rotation but one who gets things done a little differently than Rhett Lowder. While Lowder has about as well-rounded a profile as you're going to get, McGraw is much more of a loud stuff guy who is still refining his overall feel for pitching and one who hopes to truly break out in 2023. While the ACC numbers aren't quite there (and Wake Forest's hitter-friendly David F. Couch Ballpark doesn't do him any favors), like Brock Wilken he has thrived over two summers in the Cape Cod League, where he has a combined 3.20 ERA and a 47/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 innings. He can touch 98 early in starts and can still hold low 90's velocity towards the end, with heavy running and sinking action that makes it tough to square up. He's recently worked to add a four seam fastball that can ride away from his more natural two seam plane, giving hitters another look. McGraw's best pitch is a plus slider with nasty hard snap that misses a ton of bats, and he's working on a changeup that flashes above average as well. He moves well on the mound with an athletic delivery and a low release, but to this point his fringy command has held him back from becoming the impact arm Wake Forest wants him to be. Controlling at bats and setting himself up with better counts will be on the to do list in 2023, and if he can, there's no reason he shouldn't go in the first round. If his command plateaus and he continues to wind up in hitters' counts, he may be a reliever at the next level and the second round would make more sense.

7. 3B Jake Gelof, Virginia.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 2/25/2002. Hometown: Rehoboth Beach, DE.
2022: 21 HR, .377/.477/.764, 3 SB, 49/41 K/BB in 58 games.
Zack Gelof hit .316/.396/.478 with 16 home runs over a three year career at UVA, then went to the A's in the second round of the 2021 draft. Two years later, his brother Jake has a chance to beat his draft position, now that he's coming off a monster sophomore season in which he set the UVA school record for RBI (81) and finished near the top of the school leaderboards in multiple other stats. He loves to turn on the ball and can do so virtually anywhere in the zone, not having to wait for that middle-in fastball to crank one. ACC pitching did not faze him one bit, as he hammered virtually everything thrown at him and had opposing managers circling his name in the lineup. Despite the big numbers, he wasn't always the most consistent hitter and lost his approach at times, but those highest on the Delaware native may be willing to write that off as an underclassman just being a young hitter. There is also some swing and miss present in his game, as he ran an 18.7% strikeout rate this past spring, but he's pretty patient too and overall it's not a major concern. He has the look of a 25+ home run hitter with solid on-base percentages that can hit in the middle of a major league lineup if everything breaks right and he gets more consistent at the plate. He's also a solid defender at third base that should be able to stick there, providing additional value all around. There are many similarities to Yohandy Morales on this list, though Morales is bigger, more athletic, and had a better summer.

8. C Kyle Teel, Virginia.

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 190 lbs. Born 2/15/2002. Hometown: Mahwah, NJ.
2022: 6 HR, .276/.402/.439, 3 SB, 36/41 K/BB in 58 games.
Kyle Teel didn't have quite as loud a season in 2022 as his teammate Jake Gelof, but his lengthy track record keeps them neck and neck in terms of prospect status. Teel had a chance to go in the top three rounds of the 2020 draft out of a New Jersey high school, but pulled his name before the event because he was dead set on Charlottesville. He made an immediate impact as a freshman, slashing .335/.416/.526 with nine home runs in 2021, but didn't hit for quite as much impact in 2022 as he dropped to .276/.402/.439 and he struggled in 14 games between the Collegiate National Team and the Cape Cod League (.146/.271/.195). Teel is a very disciplined hitter that works counts effectively, something you might expect from a seasoned ACC catcher, and that helps him continue to get on base consistently and provide value even when his bat goes cold. His load can get rigid as he stabs the handle towards his back foot a bit before exploding towards the ball, messing with his timing occasionally. Still, is strong pitch selection helps him keep the swing and miss to a minimum despite the moving parts in his swing, and when it's all clicking, he's a true impact hitter as we saw during that freshman season. Behind the plate, he's more athletic than most catchers and has shown the ability to handle multiple other positions around the diamond. His pure glovework is still a work in progress but that athleticism gives him a nice baseline and is plenty enough to give scouts confidence he'll eventually develop into at least an average defender back there. Left handed hitting catchers that can hit and field at a high level are hard to find, so if he can recapture his 2021 form while continuing to make strides on defense, he could go early in the first round.

9. SS Alex Mooney, Duke.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 7/6/2002. Hometown: Rochester Hills, MI.
2022: 3 HR, .292/.393/.392, 12 SB, 41/27 K/BB in 54 games.
Alex Mooney continues the trend on this list of players who earned considerable draft interest out of high school, and in this case he could well have heard his name in the top fifty picks. One of the top incoming recruits in the entire country, he jumped into the everyday lineup immediately as a freshman and ended up having a solid, if unspectacular, first season in Durham. He wasted no time getting acclimated to ACC pitching, posting nearly a .400 on-base percentage and running just a 16.7% strikeout rate as a 19 year old, but he also wound up slugging below .400 as he only managed fourteen extra base hits in 54 games. The Detroit-area native posted similar numbers over the summer in the Cape Cod League (.263/.330/.389), but it's worth noting that he bumped his ISO from .100 to .126 and went from three home runs in 54 games to five home runs in 46 games despite transitioning to wood bats and facing better pitching. Mooney brings a great combination of strength, athleticism, and baseball IQ to the diamond, and it's important to remember this was only his first season in college ball. He's old for a sophomore and will turn 21 before the draft, though, so taking that next step in 2023 will be very important if he wants to go in the top two rounds. Personally, I think he will. He has very quiet hands in the box and uses them to guide the barrel to different parts of the zone with precision, recognizing pitches well and making adjustments in the box. It's an above average hit tool for now that has a chance to become plus, and as he continues to fill out his 6'1" frame, hopefully he can tap average power as well. Defensively, his athleticism, strong internal clock, and feel for the infield give him every shot to stick at shortstop, though a more explosive athlete could push him to second or third base depending on what system he ends up in. This is a profile filled with average or better tools that could all tick up to 55 or better if he continues to progress.

10. IF LuJames Groover, North Carolina State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 4/16/2002. Hometown: Morrow, GA.
2022: 10 HR, .364/.440/.568, 4 SB, 44/28 K/BB in 57 games.
There is a saying that hitters hit, and that certainly applies to LuJames Groover. He began his career at Charlotte but transferred after one season to NC State, where he was one of their best hitters and figures to be the centerpiece in the Wolfpack lineup now with Tommy White off to LSU. Groover is a professional hitter through and through, one who makes contact as consistently and with as much authority as anybody in the conference. He struck out just 16.1% of the time in 2022 while producing high exit velocities, meaning lots of scorching grounders and screaming line drives. That's the Atlanta-area product's approach for now, with a flat swing geared towards those hard line drives that helped him hit .364 at NC State and previously .351 as a freshman at Charlotte. Though he doesn't have much loft in his right handed swing, he can turn on the ball when he needs to and finds such a high volume of barrels that he did run into ten home runs last year, and he has a chance at above average power in pro ball if he decides to make that a larger part of his game. Given his innate feel for hitting, he should be able to if he wants to. Defensively, Groover is more of a question mark. He appeared at first base, second base, and both corner outfield spots for NC State last year and hasn't really turned heads at any of them, so barring positive developments on that front, the pressure will be on his bat. He's a decent athlete that can handle himself around the diamond, but his best case scenario is as a bat-first second baseman and there's a chance he ends up at first base for good.

11. RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 7/10/2002. Hometown: Jacksonville, FL.
2022: 1-2, 5.60 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 41/20 K/BB in 27.1 innings.
Jackson Baumeister is yet another big name high school prospect who made it to campus. He had a chance to go in the top three rounds in 2021 and ended up in Tallahassee instead, but unlike Alex Mooney, he wasn't an immediate contributor. Rather, he got buried in an FSU pitching staff that proved to be the deepest in the conference, making seventeen relief appearances and two late-season midweek starts, but he'll have a chance to step into a much larger role in 2023 after the entire weekend rotation left either for pro ball or the transfer portal. Baumeister spent his summer on the Cape and threw nearly as many innings there (21) as he did all season long at FSU (27.1), and showed well with a 4.28 ERA and a 30/10 strikeout to walk ratio. He's an excellent athlete that gets down the mound well with a fluid delivery, getting good extension out front with a low release point that helps his stuff play up. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and tops out around 96 with riding action, while a sharp downer curveball has a chance to be his best pitch if he can add a little more power. The Jacksonville native is also working on an improving changeup, though it's still inconsistent to this point and he can slow his arm down at times. Below average command kept him from clawing through that FSU depth chart and earning innings last year, but given his athleticism and repeatable delivery, he has every chance to develop average command in time. If he does, he's a legitimate starting pitching prospect, but he'll need to build up some track record in Tallahassee this year to crack the top two rounds.

12. RHP Carson Montgomery, Florida State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 8/13/2002. Hometown: Windermere, FL.
2022: 4-1, 5.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 62/23 K/BB in 54 innings.
For all the fanfare that followed Jackson Baumeister to Tallahassee, Carson Montgomery was an even bigger prospect as a prep that ranked as the top prospect on my list to reach campus (though #'s 2 and 4, Kevin Parada and Dylan Crews, have since surpassed him in a big way), though like Baumeister, he's yet to break out. Though Montgomery graduated in 2020 and Baumeister was a 2021, he's actually more than a month younger as he's extremely young for his class and Baumeister is very old, interestingly enough. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 98, though it plays down a touch and catches a lot of barrels in the zone because of its generic movement. By far his best pitch is a plus slider with huge spin rates that misses a ton of bats, and pro teams will likely have him pitch off of it in the minors. He also flips in an average changeup, rounding out a big league three pitch arsenal. He's athletic on the mound but does have an interesting double leg lift that impacts his break towards the plate, and to this point his control is well ahead of his command. For most pitchers who can hit 98 and add a nasty breaking ball, that's not so much of an issue anymore, but given Montgomery's fastball's tendency to find more barrels than it misses, it's certainly important for him. If he can get better about locating his prodigious stuff or finds a way to get more movement on his fastball, he can be an impact starting pitcher at the big league level. Given his youth, not turning 21 until after the draft, there's a solid chance that happens.

Honorable Mentions

Just Missed: Catcher Cooper Ingle (Clemson) was the first player off the list after slashing .351/.449/.526 with eight home runs for the Tigers last year and is one of my favorite players in the conference. He utilizes a short, slasher-type swing focused on lashing line drives around the field, but he can turn on one if he needs to and could be a fun prospect to develop. An interesting .252/.401/.319 run through the Cape Cod League with more walks (30) than strikeouts (28) highlighted his exceptional feel for hitting and also called into question somewhat his ability to create impact with wood bats.

Post-Hype: Yohandy Morales wasn't the only big name to reach Miami's campus following the 2020 draft, but Alejandro Rosario hasn't quite lived up to expectations with a 6.09 ERA and a strikeout rate below 20% over two years in Coral Gables. He began to turn that around with a strong, albeit brief stint on the Cape (1.74 ERA, 13/1 K/BB) and has a chance to finally put it together this spring. Armed with a fastball that can hit 99 and an improving slider/splitter combo, he's one of the better athletes in the conference and could make for a fun ball of clay for whoever drafts him.
Top Transfer: The transfer portal taketh away from NC State with Tommy White heading to LSU, but it also giveth as the Wolfpack pulled Old Dominion star Carter Trice across the border to Raleigh. Trice was a two year performer for the Monarchs, slashing .324/.411/.620 with 31 home runs and 26 stolen bases over 111 games, bringing a dynamic skill set to NC State that should translate to the ACC. Undersized at 5'11", he has big power from the right side and above average speed. He has struggled with swing and miss throughout his career but has shown well over two summers on the Cape (.262/.348/.454).

Deep Sleeper: Wake Forest is pulling in a very interesting young lefty named Sean Sullivan, who posted a 4.45 ERA and a 78/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings at Northwestern in 2022. He draws many similarities to Miami's (now the Rockies') Carson Palmquist as a true sidearm lefty that gets by more on command than stuff, sitting around 90 with his fastball while adding a sweeping slider and a plus changeup. I'm very excited to see what happens at Wake Forest's pitching lab over the offseason and he could be primed for a big time breakout.