2024 MLB Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

Full list of draftees

The Cubs followed one primary theme here, and that was chasing power. Their first three picks all have the potential for plus or better power, as do many of their later picks. That's a bit of a break from recent years, where they have focused heavily on pitching, but looking back to their World Series team nearly a decade ago, it was built on drafting hitters like Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, among others. Beyond that, they interestingly went on a Southern California mid-major binge, grabbing four in a six pick stretch from the University of San Diego, UC Santa Barbara (x2), and UC San Diego. 
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-14: 3B Cam Smith, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $5.07 million. Signing bonus: $5.07 million.
My rank: #13. MLB Pipeline: #14. Baseball America: #16.
The Cubs started things off with a bang, pulling in one of the top hitting prospects in all of amateur baseball in Cam Smith. Smith was a well-known prep in South Florida and had day two draft interest in 2022, but he made it to campus at Florida State and immediately jumped into the starting lineup as a freshman. While his freshman numbers were more good than great, he significantly elevated his profile by hitting .341/.396/.557 with six home runs in 49 games in the Cape Cod League that summer. Scouts were interested to see if he could apply that progress back to the ACC, and boy did he ever with a massive sophomore season that led to a first round draft selection. Smith has a true big league body at a listed 6'3", 225 pounds, and he looks every bit of it. He uses that natural strength to get extended and drive the ball to all parts of the park, notably applying an opposite field approach that helps him wear out the right center field gap. That approach almost conceals his power a bit, which is impressive considering he still hit sixteen home runs. Smith's raw exit velocities are among the best in the class, giving him plus-plus power when he turns on the ball. Unlike most power bats, he makes plenty of contact as well, and he was the only college hitter on the Baseball America 500 (out of 145) to run a 90th percentile exit velocity above 111 MPH while also running a contact rate above 81%. Smith can do damage against all pitch types, and he's really cleaned up his approach since looking overwhelmed as a freshman last year – his strikeout rate dropped from 28.7% to 14.9% while his walk rate jumped from 9.1% to 13.7%. It will be interesting to see if the Cubs let him continue to develop as a doubles machine smacking balls to the back side or if they look to get him to turn on the ball more often to unlock potential 30+ home run power. Smith also moves well at third base despite his size and fringy speed, with a plus arm and natural feel for the position making a potential average or better defender at the hot corner. That adds to the profile further and he has a shot to become one of the better third basemen in all of baseball. He's off to a hot start and has already been promoted, slashing .326/.418/.641 with seven home runs and a 21/14 strikeout to walk ratio through 26 games at Low A Myrtle Beach and High A South Bend.

2-54: 3B Cole Mathis, College of Charleston {video}
Slot value: $1.68 million. Signing bonus: $1.68 million.
My rank: #70. MLB Pipeline: #84. Baseball America: #61.
Cole Mathis is a really fun one with excellent metrics under the hood. He's actually a decorated pitcher who had some pro interest for his arm, which helped him put up a 3.60 ERA in 100 innings at the College of Charleston from 2022-2023. A big sophomore season at the plate but his bat on the map, then he tore through the Cape Cod League by slashing .326/.391/.660 with eleven home runs in 37 games (while running a 23/5 strikeout to walk ratio as a pitcher). Entering 2024 a late day two prospect, he started dreadfully slowly and was hitting just .184 with one home run through his first 21 games. Then a switch flipped and he hit .427/.541/.831 with thirteen home runs in his final 31 games the rest of the way, prompting the Cubs to hit the button perhaps a bit earlier than some expected. As you might expect, it's big raw power. Mathis is a built rock solid at a listed 6'1", 210 pounds, with plenty of strength to produce plus raw power that he had no problem tapping with wood bats against elite competition on the Cape. Meanwhile, the hit tool might be even better than the power, as the West Georgia native is exceptionally patient at the plate and rarely ever expands the zone. He makes plenty of contact within it, too, helping him keep strikeouts to a minimum and ensuring he's always on base – his career OBP at the College of Charleston stands at a gaudy .451. If there's one qualm about his offensive game, it's that he's more strong than athletic, so he could be tested once pro pitchers start to speed up his bat a bit more, but he did hit .326 on the Cape. If it clicks, Mathis has a chance for 25-30 home runs per year with high on-base percentages, which would put him right in the middle of the Cubs lineup long term. The Cubs drafted him as a third baseman, but he's most likely a first baseman long term with heavy feet and stiffer actions, though he does have a plus arm. That arm helped him run his fastball up to 96 as a reliever and he made ten starts for the Cougars in 2023, and he could fall back on pitching if hitting doesn't work out. The fastball can get a bit straight, while his hammer curveball gives him a quality offspeed offering and he pounds the strike zone with average command. Mathis is young for the class, having still been 20 on draft day.

3-90: SS Ronny Cruz, Miami Christian HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $826,000. Signing bonus: $620,000 ($206,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #386.
Continuing the power theme, the Cubs picked up one of the better power bats remaining the prep class here in the third round and did so giving him fourth round money to sign away from a Miami commitment. Ronny Cruz is very projectable with a long, lean 6'2" frame, and this spring he has done a much better job of leveraging that frame to blast balls long distances. He gets the bat long through the zone with great extension, and he looked at his best during the MLB Draft Combine in June. Meanwhile, Cruz is raw as a hitter. He's susceptible to selling out for power, causing him to swing through hittable pitches, but that's getting better. The Cubs are buying into the power and believe the positive trajectory he's shown lately will help him hit enough to tap that power in pro ball. Meanwhile, he was drafted as a shortstop but may ultimately grow off the position. Second or third base could be his future, but so long as he makes reasonable strides in his glovework, he should be solid at either. Finding that kind of power that can stick on the dirt is not easy, and the Dominican-born Cruz is very young for the class having turned 18 more than a month after the draft. That gives him further time to fill out his frame and clean up his actions on both sides of the ball. It's a real sleeper for Chicago here.

4-120: SS Ty Southisene, Basic HS [NV] {video}
Slot value: $600,800. Signing bonus: $1 million ($399,200 above slot value).
My rank: #130. MLB Pipeline: #111. Baseball America: #191.
Ty Southisene breaks the power hitter pattern here, but he's a big time get that signed for roughly the slot value of the #78 pick rather than attend Tennessee. It's a really, really complete profile, with only one drawback – size. I've seen Southisene variously listed between 5'7" and 5'9", but no matter how you slice it, he's smaller than most of his competition. He uses a quick right handed swing to shoot line drives around the park with authority, and his quick hands and twitchy strength make the ball jump off his bat with more juice than you'd expect. There's a bit of a barrel tip in his load, but those quick hands help negate that as well. Additionally, he's an above average runner with excellent body control that gives him an outside shot to play shortstop, though his arm strength may push him to second base. Southisene's quickness and athleticism give him a chance to be at least above average if not plus at second. All together, we're talking about a potential high average type that can knock 10-15 home runs per season while playing strong defense on the dirt, really nice upside to find for third round money. If he were a few inches taller, we could be talking about a top fifty pick, and the Las Vegas native is out to prove that size does not matter.

5-153: C Ariel Armas, San Diego {video}
Slot value: $435,600. Signing bonus: $375,000 ($60,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Cubs have struggled to develop catching since Willson Contreras came up, with Miguel Amaya representing the only semi-success the organization has had behind the plate. They'll try again with Ariel Armas, though his ceiling is limited and he may project better as a backup catcher. Armas played three years at San Diego, alma mater of Kris Bryant, where he didn't hit much over his first two seasons but broke out for a nice offensive season in 2024. He still won't blow you away with his bat, but it now projects to be enough for a catcher. There's average pop in the bat even if he doesn't tap it so much in games, at least enough to keep pitchers honest. He's also a smart hitter in the box with a low chase rate that walked (11.2%) nearly as much as he struck out (13.7%). It's a fairly well-rounded offensive profile that won't be overwhelmed by pro pitching in any way. The carrying tool here, though, is his defense. He was the WCC Defensive Player of the Year in 2024, showing polished defense behind the plate that will help him not only remain at catcher long term but provide significant value there. That takes about as much pressure off his bat as you can hope for, so he'll only have to hit a little to ascend through the ranks. Just how much impact he can find in his right handed swing will determine his ultimate ceiling, but it's never a bad thing to have a glove like this in your system. Aggressively assigned to High A South Bend to start things out, he's hitting .204/.316/.286 with a 10/7 strikeout to walk ratio through thirteen games.

7-212: OF Ivan Brethowr, UC Santa Barbara {video}
Slot value: $263,300. Signing bonus: $245,000 ($18,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #194. Baseball America: #472.
After taking a couple rounds off, the Cubs went back to the power well in a big way. Ivan Brethowr began his career at Arizona State, but didn't play much as a freshman and transferred to UC Santa Barbara, where he has been one of the Gauchos' best hitters. Brethowr immediately stands out on the field at a listed 6'6", 250 pounds, making him the biggest player in a Cubs' draft class full of large humans. Unsurprisingly, he has plus power to the pull side and loves to turn on the ball for impressive home runs. He's plenty strong enough to put the ball out the other way, too, but at this point he doesn't have the barrel feel to consistently tap that opposite field power and most of his batted balls the opposite way are mishits. The pull-heavy approach combined with the longer levers that lead to lower barrel accuracy give him a below average hit tool, so the Cubs will have to revamp his approach a bit in pro ball to tap his power more consistently. The upside, though, is tremendous if they can get it right. On the defensive side of the ball, the Kansas City-area native has average speed and a strong arm to make right field a viable option, though he may slow down as he ages. He's earned comps to fellow California mid-major product Aaron Judge, and while that would of course that outcome would require a lot to go right (and he's less disciplined as a hitter at this stage), they do have similar profiles with their size, power, and handedness. It's been a steep transition to pro ball so far, where he is slashing .165/.267/.253 with two home runs and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio through 22 games at Low A Myrtle Beach.

11-332: OF Eli Lovich, Blue Valley West HS [KS] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $650,000 ($500,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #474.
With their first pick of day three, the Cubs spent an extra half million against their bonus pool to sign Eli Lovich away from an Arkansas commitment, good for fourth round money. Lovich is a pure projection play, one who the Cubs believe would have exploded at Arkansas and come out the other end a much higher pick. As such, they're investing much more money than you might expect given his rankings on various draft boards. He's long and lean at 6'4", 185 pounds, with room to add 40-50 pounds of strength. For now, he's mostly a line drive hitter who uses the whole field effectively with a level, loose swing that will be conducive to adding power. That power is fringy right now, but he's almost certain to get much, much stronger in Chicago and he could get to above average power easily. A decent runner, he likely fits as a right fielder long term but the Cubs would love it if he could make it work in center field. Lovich has a strong arm and was actually ranked on Baseball America's board as a pitcher, not a hitter, so giving up the mound could also help the Kansas City-area native bring it together. He has a long way to go, but the upside here is tremendous and he really resembles exactly the kind of hitter that goes to school and comes back a first or second rounder three years later. The Cubs see that and will see him through to that ceiling in their system.

12-362: RHP Daniel Avitia, Grand Canyon {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #195. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #250.
I thought top-five round projections for Daniel Avitia were a little rich earlier this spring, but now that the Cubs managed to get their hands on him here in the twelfth round, he becomes a very interesting prospect for $150,000. Avitia was a central piece of the Grand Canyon rotation as a freshman and as a sophomore, but missed time with injuries in 2024 and didn't take the step forward scouts were looking for. The Cubs like power arms, but Avitia is more of a soft tosser. The fastball hovers around 90, topping out around 94 and coming in with running and sinking action. His slider and changeup are both solid average pitches, nothing special but they get the job done. Where Avitia shines is command and execution. He can spot all three pitches where he needs them, helping them play up and keeping him ahead in counts. The Phoenix native gets his whiffs by executing those pitches where he needs them rather than forcing them to chase bad pitches out of the zone, so it remains to be seen how well that will play against pro pitchers who can pick him up a little better. Avitia also comes from a low three quarters slot that creates an ultra low release point, which will allow the Cubs to get creative with his pitch usage as he keeps hitters off balance. Clocking in at 6'4", he has some projection remaining and if he can tack 2-3 MPH on his fastball while maintaining his plus command, he suddenly becomes a legitimate MLB starting pitching candidate. His older brother David is actually already in the Cubs' system, where he's a light hitting catcher currently in High A.

13-392: RHP Evan Aschenbeck, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Here the Cubs bring in one of the top relievers in the country, and in fact Evan Aschenbeck was named Stopper of the Year this past spring. He spent two years at Blinn JC in Texas, then spent the last two at Texas A&M where he put up that massive senior season in 2024. While he's a very different pitcher, the profile is fairly similar to Daniel Avitia on the surface. His fastball hovers around 90, topping out around 93 although his is a riding fastball from a moderately high slot while Avitia's is a running fastball from a very low slot. Also like Avitia, Aschenbeck has an average slider and changeup to round out his arsenal. He shows plus command and execution, again like Avitia, with the ability to mix pitches effectively and throw them all with conviction in any count to any spot. He's a very high baseball IQ type who thrived in high pressure situations in the SEC. Unlike Avitia, who is two years his junior, he lacks projection and is unlikely to throw much harder. That caps the 23 year old's ceiling a little bit, and he's unlikely to be much more than a middle reliever at best for the Cubs. That said, he could move through the minors very quickly with his command and durability.

20-602: RHP Brayden Risedorph, Indiana {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
It took until the final round, but the Cubs finally picked up a Midwesterner to come pitch in their system. Brayden Risedorph is from the small town of Kendallville, Indiana, which sits about 25 miles north of Fort Wayne near the northeastern corner of the Hoosier State. He spent two years at Indiana, where he served as a swingman but struggled to an 8.31 ERA in 2024. Unsurprisingly, the Cubs are targeting the stuff here, not the performance. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 99 in short stints, though it plays a bit straight out of his hand with some running action so it doesn't miss many bats. There's a solid sweeper with the chance to be above average, while his splitter is inconsistent but shows nasty, late drop at its best. Risedorph shows fringy command that may limit him to the bullpen long term, but the arm strength, physicality, and stuff all point to more ceiling than you'd expect. The Cubs will have to get creative with his pitch mix and perhaps tweak the fastball to keep hitters off it if he wants to come anywhere close to that ceiling, but as a draft-eligible sophomore he was still 20 on draft day and has a shot to put things together.

2023 MLB Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

Full list of draftees

The Cubs employed an interesting strategy here, drafting a ton of post-hype prospects that all had the potential to go much higher had their 2023 seasons gone differently, whether that be due to injury or poor performance. As such, it's a class full of bounce-back candidates that have been in the prospect spotlight before. Otherwise, this is a position player-heavy class that also pulled in a trio of high upside prep bats for reasonable signing bonuses. Of course, the show is owned by Matt Shaw, whose $4.85 million signing bonus was more than triple what anybody else in the Cubs' class got.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-13: SS Matt Shaw, Maryland {video}
Slot value: $4.85 million. Signing bonus: $4.85 million.
My rank: #19. MLB Pipeline: #16. Baseball America: #13. Prospects Live: #23.
Sometimes, players slip down your draft board a little bit and Matt Shaw ended up at #19 on mine, though in hindsight I regret not putting him a few slots higher. Shaw is an excellent all around player. He has been a serious contributor for three years now at Maryland, and he put together his best season yet in 2023 by slashing .341/.445/.697 with 24 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 42/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. And if you don't buy those numbers because Maryland plays in an extreme hitters' park and the Big Ten has a bit lower competition than other major conferences, he also raked last summer in the elite Cape Cod League to the tune of a .348/.434/.571 slash line and six home runs in 44 games, earning the league's MVP award. So long story short, Shaw can play. He sets up from a closed off stance that reminds me a bit of Giancarlo Stanton (though he's seven inches shorter), but extends his arms well with excellent feel for the barrel that helps him drive the ball with authority to all fields. Though he's just 5'11", that helps him show sneaky above average power that he taps consistently in games and against good pitching. He'll expand the zone a bit, but does adjust well and walked more than he struck out in 2023, with strong bat to ball skills helping to limit his swing and miss. He describes himself as a guess hitter, but given his performance on the Cape, it's safe to say he's a very effective guesser. Overall, it's an above average hit tool with above average power, which you'll take every time. The Western Massachusetts native is also a solid defender – he probably won't stick at shortstop, but he's athletic enough with plenty of speed to handle second base and his bat will profile plenty well there. Shaw brings a twitchy, athletic physical profile from that smaller frame with high baseball IQ and a long track record of performance that makes him a fairly safe bet to be a long-term contributor, even if he lacks a plus tool. The Cubs have pushed him aggressively and he has lived up to the challenge so far, slashing .382/.427/.647 with five home runs and a 14/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games between the Arizona Complex League, High A South Bend, and AA Tennessee.

2C-68: RHP Jaxon Wiggins, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $1.1 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($300,500 above slot value).
My rank: #124. MLB Pipeline: #103. Baseball America: #85. Prospects Live: #219.
Jaxon Wiggins had serious helium this fall and was trending towards the top two rounds, but he went down with Tommy John surgery right before the season started and never got the chance to build his stock. While national outlets and my rankings backed off him, the Cubs never did and they gave him close to the slot value for the #58 pick to sign here at #68. If any team loves hard throwing college arms, it's the Cubs, so Wiggins certainly fits their draft tendency. He never quite found consistency at Arkansas, posting a 6.17 ERA and a 110/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 innings over his two seasons there, but was picked by many as a breakout candidate in 2023 before his injury. Wiggins has a ton of arm strength, sitting comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball, touching triple digits in short stints, and getting explosive riding life at times making it a plus-plus pitch at its best. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, flashing above average at its best paying very well off his fastball, while his slider is fringy and needs work. The stuff can be inconsistent, with the fastball straightening out at times and the changeup not always getting that fade that he wants. He also hasn't proven his command quite yet, as it was below average in the past potentially stemming from having to make up a lot of ground late in his overhand delivery. He smoothed it out and was looking better in that regard this past fall, and the Cubs are buying into those improvements. Standing 6'6", Wiggins is extremely projectable and has a ton of upside between his arm strength and the movement he flashes at his best. If he can hold his command together, find a reliable breaking ball, and get more consistent with his fastball and changeup movement, he has a chance to be a real impact starter.

3-81: SS Josh Rivera, Florida {video}
Slot value: $872,400. Signing bonus: $725,000 ($147,400 below slot value).
My rank: #79. MLB Pipeline: #87. Baseball America: #60. Prospects Live: #103.
Virtually every major public board ranked Josh Rivera ahead of Jaxon Wiggins, but he signed for just about half the money here as a senior sign and personally I love the pick. Rivera was a well known name as a prep at the famed IMG Academy, but he made it to campus at Florida and turned in three unremarkable seasons to fall to the fringes of draft conversations. Opting to return for his senior season, he finally put it all together and slashed .348/.447/.617 with 19 home runs and a 35/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games, bringing his draft stock roaring back to higher than it had ever been before. Rivera may be set to turn 23 in October, but he's plenty advanced so the age is no concern for me or most evaluators. He employs a keen eye at the plate and controls the strike zone very well, taking professional at bats through the grind of SEC play and adjusting like he's been there before. His ability to choose good pitches combined with his strong innate feel for the barrel allow him to take big right handed swings and produce average power, which he began tapping consistently in games by hitting more home runs in 70 games in 2023 (19) than he did in 134 games over his first three seasons (16). He is also a very advanced defender with tremendous feel for the infield, though his pure athleticism may limit him to second or third base in the long run once he gets pushed off shortstop by a springier, more explosive defender. This may be more of a utility profile than an every day profile, but now that he's figured everything out, he's a high probability big leaguer that could move very quickly and does have a shot to hit near the bottom of an MLB lineup every day. Moving quickly already, he's slashing .253/.292/.422 with two home runs and a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games between the Arizona Complex League and High A South Bend.

4-113: RHP Will Sanders, South Carolina {video}
Slot value: $591,800. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($8,200 above slot value).
My rank: #87. MLB Pipeline: #135. Baseball America: #65. Prospects Live: #73.
Will Sanders is another interesting prospect who has seen his stock bounce around a bit. He was excellent over his first two seasons at South Carolina and established himself as a potential first round pick according to some evaluators, but took a bit of a step back in 2023 with a 5.46 ERA and a 77/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.2 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 at peak, though the fastball gets straight from a high release point and got hit much more than its velocity would dictate. He stands out for his feel for his secondary stuff, with a late biting slider that flashes plus at best and a nice curve that looks like it could be an above average pitch in its own right when he comes through it. He rounds out his arsenal with an above average changeup, giving him the deep, big league arsenal teams look for. The 6'6" righty repeats his delivery and pounds the strike zone, though he wasn't as fine with his locations in 2023 which led to him getting hit over the plate. If the Cubs can help him find ways to create more deception with his fastball and get a little more consistent with his offspeed stuff, he has mid-rotation upside. I never really bought into the first round hype he got coming into the season, but I'm certainly intrigued here in the fourth round and I think the Cubs may have found very nice value.

5-149: C Michael Carico, Davidson {video}
Slot value: $416,900. Signing bonus: $400,000.
My rank: #113. MLB Pipeline: #110. Baseball America: #127. Prospects Live: #80.
This is a pretty unique profile right here. Michael Carico was not much of a prospect at all as recently as the winter of 2021-2022, but he broke out for an unbelievable sophomore campaign that spring by slashing .406/.559/.843 with 21 home runs over 54 games. He came in 2023 with huge expectations, but missed most of the season with a wrist injury and slashed .350/.514/.688 with seven home runs and a 14/17 strikeout to walk ratio over just 21 games. If Carico has one outlier trait, it's his plate discipline. He never, ever chases, in fact running the lowest chase rate of any college hitter on my draft board at just 13%. That's elite. When he does swing, he rarely misses and finds the barrel with almost alarming consistency, at least if you're the other team it's alarming. There are questions about how that approach will play up against more advanced pitchers that attack the zone with higher level stuff, as Carico played in the more middling Atlantic 10 Conference, but there's not much more he could have done to this point against the competition he had. The raw power was well below average in 2023 around that wrist injury, but with 28 home runs and 27 doubles in just 75 games the past two seasons, he's certainly maximized that modest raw power into above average game power. That's another area that is a question mark heading into pro ball, where he'll switch to wood bats and his already modest exit velocities could suffer more. Carico is a solid athlete that needs more refinement if he wants to stick behind the plate, but the quickness and catcher's frame are there. It's really hard to know what to make of the offensive profile given his injury, weaker competition, and low exit velocities, but his elite approach and ability to maximize his power give him every shot to make it work. If that profile translates to pro ball, he won't necessarily need to stick behind the plate to be an impact bat at the major league level, but if he stumbles at all in his offensive development, being able to go back and handle the catcher's position would be really helpful as he ascends the ranks. To boot, the North Carolina native is very young for a college junior and didn't turn 21 until almost two months after the draft.  So far, he's slashing .188/.409/.375 with one home run and an even 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Myrtle Beach.

6-176: OF Alfonsin Rosario, P27 Academy [SC] {video}
Slot value: $325,600. Signing bonus: $325,600.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #241. Prospects Live: #318.
The Cubs went for upside here in the sixth round, signing Alfonsin Rosario away from a Chipola commitment for slot value. Rosario is another big, 6'6" slugger that makes those around him take notice when he steps on the field. He has a big, powerful right handed swing that can produce impressive exit velocities, though his approach is raw and will need to be cleaned up. He chases frequently and can get frozen by good breaking balls in the zone, and his big swing does lead to swing and miss. Still, the size and huge bat speed are tantalizing. Rosario also shows off a howitzer for an arm in the outfield, easily reaching third base on a line from right field and profiling as plus-plus in that regard, though he can work on accuracy. The Cubs will need to be patient with the star youngster, who is a bit old for a high school senior (turned 19 in June) after transferring to school in the United States from his home in the Dominican Republic. So far, he's slashing .250/.364/.286 with an 8/4 strikeout to walk ratio over nine games in the Arizona Complex League.

7-206: SS Yahil Melendez, B You Academy [PR] {video}
Slot value: $254,500. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($145,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Yahil Melendez was not ranked on any major public boards, but the Cubs liked what they saw and gave him fifth round money here in the seventh round to sign away from a Rice commitment. Only set to turn 18 almost two months after the draft, he's extremely young for the class and at 6'3", 165 pounds, he's extremely projectable as well. It's a long term play where the Cubs can get him into their player development system early and shape the kind of player he can become. Melendez has a smooth left handed swing that promises to add significant power as he fills out, and at present he makes plenty of all fields contact. He's got some range at shortstop and a strong arm to boot, though he has a slower arm stroke and will need to tighten that up in order to stick at the premium position. He's more than fourteen months younger than Alfonsin Rosario and like Rosario, he'll require some patience. He's slashing .237/.256/.342 with a 16/1 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games in the Arizona Complex League.

11-326: OF Zyhir Hope, Colonial Forge HS [VA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($250,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #276. Prospects Live: #137.
The Cubs went for more upside here in the eleventh round, giving Zyhir Hope the same fifth round-caliber signing bonus that Yahil Melendez got. Hope has a quick bat from the left side, shooting line drives around the field with some sneaky power to his pull side when he turns on it. The approach can get raw and he hasn't shown particularly well in his limited looks against more advanced pitching, but the Cubs are willing to be patient and see if they can bring the whole package together over time. Hope is a plus-plus runner that will wreak havoc on the bases, so he has a shot to play center field as well. Throw in an above average arm that can get into the low 90's on the mound, and you've got a pretty exciting all around talent. The early returns are strong, as Hope is slashing .286/.419/.543 with three home runs and a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio through eleven games in the Arizona Complex League.

12-356: 2B Carter Trice, North Carolina State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #207. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #249. Prospects Live: unranked.
Carter Trice gives the Cubs an interesting prospect with a lot of upside who couldn't quite put it together this year. He began his college career at Old Dominion, where he hit .324/.411/.620 with 31 home runs over two seasons, then transferred to NC State as one of the better incoming transfers to the ACC. However, he never really found his footing with the Wolfpack and lost his starting spot during the season, finishing with a .248/.348/.479 line, six home runs, and a 34/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games. The Cubs are buying low here, hoping he can recapture his former greatness. Just 5'11", Trice is a twitchy athlete with an explosive right handed swing, naturally getting great leverage on the ball to help tap above average power when he connects. He's an aggressive hitter that swung and missed at a high clip even at ODU, and that whiff tendency finally caught up to him at NC State where he ran a strikeout rate over 25%. At this point, his ability to handle advanced pitching is a real question mark, but the upside is great if he can. Defensively, the Richmond-area native's above average speed helps him profile well at all three outfield positions, with the chance to play center field that would really help his profile. It's a bit boom or bust, but if he booms, Trice could become a low average, power hitting outfielder in Chicago, and his age is a bonus as he didn't turn 21 until more than a month after the draft. So far, he's slashing .296/.406/.556 with one home run and an 11/5 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games in the Arizona Complex League but has not yet earned the call to full season ball.

18-536: 3B Brian Kalmer, Gonzaga {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $50,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #315. Prospects Live: unranked.
Okay, I'm cheating a little bit with this one because even though this writeup is supposed to be a draft review, I know Brian Kalmer is off to a hot start in the Cubs' organization. Kalmer began his career at Arizona State, but played just 19 games over two seasons and transferred to Wabash Valley JC in southeastern Illinois, not far from Evansville, Indiana. The move proved to be a huge success as he earned NJCAA Division I Player of the Year honors by slashing .421/.486/.736 with 20 home runs in 68 games, then transferred to Gonzaga where he continued to rake to the tune of a .358/.454/.682 line, 15 home runs, and a 56/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He's a big, lumbering right handed hitter with above average power based more on pure strength than explosiveness, and with 35 home runs over the past two seasons, he has really begun to tap it in games. He does come with swing and miss concerns, striking out in 23.3% of his plate appearances this past spring, though he has become a more selective hitter as he's developed. Defensively, he'll probably move to first base in the long term, which will put a lot of pressure on his bat. Already 23 years old, he'll move quickly and could be a platoon bat/pinch hitter in the near future. As I mentioned, he's off to a hot start in the Cubs' system, slashing .347/.418/.632 with seven home runs and a 25/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Myrtle Beach.

20-596: 3B Drew Bowser, Stanford {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #203. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #231. Prospects Live: #389.
Drew Bowser's profile certainly has holes, but this is a really nice find at the end of the draft. He was a famous high school prospect at Harvard-Westlake HS in Los Angeles, where he was teammates with current Cubs prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. While PCA was a first round pick in the 2020 draft, Bowser priced himself out and went unselected as he was set on attending Stanford. He made an immediate impact on campus, slashing .302/.361/.487 as a true freshman in 2021, but his batting average and on-base percentage dropped each year and he finished with just a .270/.342/.512 line, 14 home runs, and an 81/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games in 2023. Bowser has massive raw power from the right side, the product of a strong 6'4" frame and the ability to fling the barrel through the zone with ease. However, he has struggled against higher level pitching (career .181/.278/.234 hitter on the Cape) and struck out at a monstrous 29.8% rate in 2023, with an aggressive approach and a swoopy swing that cause plenty of whiffs both inside and outside the zone. Bowser is a highly intelligent player that made the transition from high school to college ball seamlessly a couple years ago (and only struck out 17.4% of the time in the process), so the Cubs believe that potential is in him and you don't find his kind of raw power every day. Bowser also has plenty of arm to play third base, but his footwork and glovework aren't all that quick or smooth and he'll have to work hard to remain at that position and avoid a fate at first base, where pressure will mount on his bat to return. So far, he is slashing .295/.367/.386 with a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games in the Arizona Complex League.

2022 MLB Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

Full list of draftees

The Cubs put together a very pitcher-heavy draft here, selecting just one position player in the first thirteen rounds as they look to stock up a system that has been somewhat depleted of arm talent behind 2021 first rounder Jordan Wicks. It's consistent with their deadline approach, where they added names like Hayden Wesneski and Ben Brown, and now the pitching depth is in a much better place than it was a few months ago. As is their brand, they targeted power arms, led by fourth rounder Nazier Mule and his triple digit fastball and closely followed by numerous arms that can touch 96, 97, and higher. It was also a prep-heavy draft, which we don't see often these days outside of San Diego and perhaps Atlanta and Kansas City, as the Cubs drafted seven high schoolers and impressively managed to sign six of them.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-7: RHP Cade Horton, Oklahoma. My rank: #21.
Slot value: $5.71 million. Signing bonus: $4.45 million ($1.26 million below slot value).
We talk about "risers" and "helium guys" throughout the draft process, but never in my eight years of closely following the draft have I seen someone rocket up boards as quickly as Cade Horton. This is a fascinating story, and we're going to spend a lot of words telling it. Horton was basically Mr. Sports at Norman High School in Oklahoma, where he earned significant draft interest as both a pitcher and a shortstop while also playing a mean enough quarterback to earn a ticket into Lincoln Riley's elite QB room at Oklahoma. Horton's name was thrown around as high as the second round in 2020, but ultimately he went to school to find his path. He didn't end up seeing the football field as a freshman and dropped the sport, then underwent Tommy John surgery just before the start of his freshman baseball season. Finally getting on a field of any kind for the first time in 2022, where he was already a draft-eligible sophomore, he started off as a third baseman only and didn't hit much, slashing .234/.323/.324 with just one home run on the year on that side of the ball. Finally picking up the baseball as a pitcher in late March, he was ineffective at first and carried a 7.94 ERA through the regular season. By that point, he had fallen from a potential second round pick in high school to one receiving little draft interest at all on either side of the ball. This is late May that we're talking, less than two months before the draft. Then something clicked, big time. Beginning with his start against Texas in the Big 12 championship game, he posted a 2.61 ERA and a 49/6 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 31 innings against some of the best lineups in college baseball – Texas, Florida, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Mississippi, to be specific. Every start was must watch TV and I'll admit I was glued to every pitch once the baseball world began to catch on. So what happened? Horton always had big arm strength, but he finally put it together in the postseason. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and was touching 98 late in the year, coming in with plenty of life that made it simply overpowering. He previously worked off a low 80's power curveball that could get slurvy at times, but late in the season he added a new slider that is already flashing plus with hard, late bite in the upper 80's. He's still working on a changeup, so the fastball and slider are his primary weapons and they're both true swing and miss pitches. His command has improved as well, because why not, and it looks at least average at this point and you could probably throw an above average grade on it once he gets a little more sample size under his belt. The 6'1" righty is an exceptional athlete, as you might expect from an Oklahoma QB recruit, repeating his delivery well and looking plenty durable enough to last over a full season. He'll definitely need to work on that changeup going forward, but Horton's transformation from a potential bust to a potential ace is incredible and the Cubs are more than happy to jump straight to the front of the Cade Horton hype train. Additionally, by signing him for more than a million dollars below slot value, they saved up enough money to drop a huge over slot bonus on...

2-47: LHP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #34.
Slot value: $1.66 million. Signing bonus: $3.01 million ($1.35 million above slot value).
After saving $1.26 million on Cade Horton, the Cubs spent it all at once by going $1.35 million above slot value for Jackson Ferris, giving him money roughly equivalent to the #24 slot at pick #47 to steer away from an Ole Miss commitment. Ferris is one of the more famous names in this high school pitching class, having transferred from Mount Airy High School in North Carolina to play at the IMG Academy in Florida and face better competition. He showed very well over the summer then came out hot this spring, but he ended up just a little more inconsistent than some evaluators would have liked. Not the Cubs, though, who are completely bought into the upside with a malleable pitcher who could develop in any number of positive directions. Ferris sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 97 with plenty of ride, adding a big, deep curveball and a changeup that flashes above average. It is a very impressive three pitch mix from a teenager, but the real draw here is his projection. The 6'4" lefty has an ideal pitcher's frame with plenty of room to fill out, and he's a very good athlete on the mound to boot. There are some extra moving parts in his delivery for now and he's still growing into his long arms and legs, so his command can be inconsistent. There are days where everything is working right and you can throw an above average grade on that command, and on those days he looks like the best high school pitching prospect in the class, but there are others where he struggles to repeat his arm slot and shows below average command. You can live with all that because there is so much to work with here between the frame, athleticism, youth, arm strength, and feel for spin, and with the right development Ferris has possibly the highest upside in the entire prep pitching class.

3-86: SS Christopher Paciolla, Temecula Valley HS [CA]. My rank: #129.
Slot value: $735,500. Signing bonus: $900,000 ($164,500 above slot value).
The Cubs went back to the prep ranks for Christopher Paciolla, a riser this spring out on the West Coast who signed away from a UCLA commitment for an above slot bonus. He has some Peyton Graham in him if you're familiar with the Oklahoma shortstop-turned Tigers second round pick, albeit with a bit less speed. Paciolla has a long limbed, 6'2" frame with projection remaining, showing the kind of profile that could blossom with the right development. He already shows above average power from the right side from a powerful, slightly uppercut hack that elevates the ball well with authority. He has at times struggled to be consistent with his hit tool, but he was much better in that regard this spring and that enabled him to tap his power more frequently. A shortstop in high school, the Southern California native will get the chance to play there in pro ball with a solid arm and springy actions in the infield, though if he slows down at all as he fills out, third base might be a better option. In all, the upside is that of a power hitting shortstop that can swat 25+ home runs a year with solid on-base percentages, which will fit right into the Cubs' young core of bats. He's still getting adjusted to the Arizona Complex League, where he is slashing .143/.280/.286 with one home run and a 7/2 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games.

4-113: RHP Nazier Mule, Passaic County Tech HS [NJ]. My rank: #83.
Slot value: $538,600. Signing bonus: $1 million ($471,400 above slot value).
Leading the way in this hard throwing class is Nazier Mule, who will fit right into the Cubs' big velo club with Luke Little, Ryan Jensen, and Daniel Palencia. They again went way above slot to get the deal done, diverting the young fireballer away from a Miami commitment that could have had him draft eligible again at 20 years old. Mule is one of the most talented players in this prep class, bar none. He brings a ton of bat speed from the right side of the plate and shows off a cannon arm at shortstop, but the Cubs drafted him as a pitcher where his upside is even higher. At big showcase events last summer, he sat in the upper 90's with his fastball and touched triple digits repeatedly, then in longer outings this spring he's dialed it back a bit and sat comfortably in the mid 90's with running action. He flashes an above average slider and has fairly advanced feel for a potentially above average changeup. The 6'3" righty is extremely raw on the mound, often relying on his pure arm strength to just fling balls at the plate at high velocities, leading to inconsistent command and secondaries. He did show a little more polish this spring, though his delivery still needs considerable work which the Cubs are ready to provide. The great news is that the North Jersey native is one of the youngest players in the class, not even set to turn 18 until October which gives the Cubs plenty of time to figure things out. The arm strength here is simply special, and now that he's shown off some pitchability this spring, the Chicago believes he's well on his way to harnessing his stuff and turning into a potential ace. Don't expect Mule to move quickly, but with a little patience, be excited for the future.

5-143: RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech. My rank: #106.
Slot value: $402,400. Signing bonus: $385,000 ($17,400 below slot value).
Brandon Birdsell has been on scouts' radars for a long time. Originally a Texas A&M commit, he pitched sparingly out of the Aggie bullpen as a freshman and transferred to San Jacinto JC in Houston, where he came out of the gate red hot leading up to the shutdown and earned significant draft interest. Instead, he moved on to Texas Tech after the shortened five round draft and again came out of the gate hot in 2021, but a season ending shoulder injury clouded his status and he turned down the Twins in the eleventh round to return to school once more and prove his health. The move paid off, as Birdsell put up a 2.75 ERA and a 106/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 innings, perhaps highlighted by six no-hit, no-walk innings against Rice in which he struck out fifteen of the twenty hitters he faced. He fits into the Cubs' type as a power arm, sitting in the mid 90's with his fastball and getting up to 99 at his best, showing some ride while hiding the ball well with short arm action. He flashes a plus slider as well that functions as his out pitch, and has also worked in a curveball that flashes well and a solid changeup. Birdsell has above average command of his power fastball, but his offspeed command is closer to average if perhaps a tick below. The 6'2" righty has continually gotten stronger and now checks in at a listed 240 pounds, looking plenty durable enough to start now that the shoulder injury is behind him. Whether he can earn a spot in the Cubs' rotation will hinge on his being able to command his offspeeds well enough to elicit chases, which given their quality (especially the slider), doesn't have to be pinpoint. If he does move to the bullpen, the Houston-area native could thrive on that fastball/slider combination and potentially touch triple digits. As a 22 year old senior, he should move fairly quickly regardless.

6-173: RHP Will Frisch, Oregon State. My rank: #213.
Slot value: $303,900. Signing bonus: $228,000 ($75,900 below slot value).
Will Frisch, like Brandon Birdsell, was eligible a year ago and showed well in a swingman role, posting a 2.38 ERA and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings, but returned to school given that he was a draft-eligible sophomore and had more to prove. Set to slot into the Oregon State rotation full time this spring, he unfortunately never got that chance as Tommy John surgery will keep him out of action until 2023. When he's on the mound, Frisch shows interesting upside though he does need more work. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can reach the upper 90's in short stints, coming from a low release height with plenty of running action to make it a very tough pitch to square up. For now, that's by far his best pitch, but his changeup does flash above average when he commands it while his slider more inconsistent. The Cubs are buying the arm strength and unique stuff, hoping to get in on the ground floor of what could be a very solid #3 starter with more consistent secondaries. To get there, he'll not only have to sharpen those up, but he'll also have to prove he can hold up in the rotation in general given he has just seven collegiate starts under his belt and is a bit undersized at six feet tall. The Twin Cities native does a good job throwing strikes but also needs to fine tune his command a bit. For now, the profile is a bit relievery until he proves otherwise, but that fastball could be deadly in that role.

8-233: RHP Mason McGwire, Capistrano Valley HS [CA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $189,100. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($10,900 above slot value).
Cubs fans are going to have to put the rivalry aside for one pick, because yes, Mason McGwire is indeed Mark's son. Unlike his father, Mason is a pitcher, one that has a ways to go but could develop into a very interesting option. He presently sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 93, while adding in a decent slider and a potentially above average changeup. Very projectable at 6'4", he has plenty of room to get stronger and more velocity is almost certain to come, with a very free and easy delivery that could probably throw harder right now if he wanted to. For now, the command is below average as he tends to lose his release point and can spike pitches in the dirt, so he'll have to develop that as he adds velocity. It looks like a starter profile given the frame, arsenal, and natural velocity, but it may take some time to develop. He had been committed to play with his brother, Max, at Oklahoma, but turns pro for roughly slot value in the eighth round.

9-263: RHP Connor Noland, Arkansas. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $164,600. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($35,400 above slot value).
You don't see too many above slot senior signs in the ninth round, but Connor Noland earned it. He was a very solid starter as an underclassman for Arkansas in 2019 and 2020, but struggled to earn innings on that loaded 2021 squad when his stuff backed up on him. He came back for his best year yet in 2022, posting a 3.65 ERA and a 113/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 innings, with those 116 innings finishing second in all of Division I only to Oklahoma's Jake Bennett. Noland only sits around 90 with his fastball, scraping the mid 90's at his best with modest life. He stands out more for his feel for spin, ripping off an above average slider with hard sweep that misses a ton of bats. The western Arkansas native also shows feel for an average curveball and can mix in a changeup, giving him the four pitch mix necessary to start. Combine that with above average command, and it's kind of a classic senior sign profile. In order to stick in the rotation, the durable 6'2" righty will need to either add life or a tick of velocity to his fastball, in which case he could be a solid #4 or #5. Otherwise, he could pitch heavily off that slider in a relief role and let the shorter outings bring his fastball up to perhaps 91-94 instead of 89-92, and then move quickly through the minors. He turned 23 shortly after the draft, making him the oldest player in the Cubs' draft class.

12-353: RHP Mathew Peters, Ivy Tech JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unspecified.
Any Ivy Tech alumni out there? Mathew Peters gives the Cubs a regional prospect, one who attended Bishop Dwenger High School on the north side of Fort Wayne, Indiana, before heading virtually across the street to Ivy Tech's Fort Wayne campus. Ivy Tech is "the nation's largest individual accredited statewide community college system" according to Wikipedia and serves as Indiana's primary community college, but it's not exactly known for sports. In fact, Mathew Peters is the first player ever drafted from the school, and he may forever be the only player drafted because the school is shutting down its baseball program next year. So now, the legacy of Ivy Tech baseball rests on Peters' shoulders, and he'll get to carry it on just up the road in Chicago. He's a power arm that sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a hard, sweeping slider and a changeup. The 6'4" righty is very athletically built and gets down the mound well with a low release point, making his pitches play up and miss more bats. He'll need some refinement around his command and the consistency of his secondaries, but his combination of velocity, size, and athleticism is worthwhile to gamble on in the twelfth round. His Arizona Complex League debut didn't go quite as planned, allowing a run on one hit and two walks while recording just one out, a strikeout.

13-383: RHP Luis Rujano, Sunshine State Elite Academy [FL]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $210,000 ($85,000 against bonus pool).
The Cubs popped for one more over slot bonus here in the thirteenth round, signing righty Luis Rujano out of the Sunshine State Elite Academy in the Orlando area and away from a South Florida commitment. Rujano, like most Cubs arms, stands out for his arm strength. He sits in the low 90's but can get up to 96-97 at peak, coming in from a lower release point. He adds a short slider that flashes upside but with inconsistent shape, while his changeup is a third pitch. The 6'4" righty has somewhat of a pieced together delivery, starting and stopping throughout and seemingly just kind of hurling the ball at the plate, leading to inconsistent command. The Cubs will work to streamline that delivery and help him retain more energy throughout, which could solve more than a few problems. Already having turned 19 in April, the Venezuelan is the age of a college freshman and has less time to develop, but the natural arm strength here is a big draw.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

Full list of draftees

The Cubs had a pretty diverse draft this year, grabbing one from each of the four major demographics (prep/college hitter/pitcher) with their first four picks. In the past, they've targeted pitchers that throw hard such as Brendon Little, Ryan Jensen, Burl Carraway, and Luke Little to name a few, but even with fireballers like Ty Madden, Gavin Williams, Ryan Cusick, and Chase Petty still on the board, they opted to break from their trend a little bit and get Jordan Wicks, who does not throw hard but stands out for his changeup. Next, they grabbed a prep bat from my high school in the second round, and in the fourth made one of my favorite picks of the entire draft. To save money for their two big overslot picks (preps James Triantos and Drew Gray), they later focused on college performers and five of their last six picks on day two were born in 1998. Easily my favorite pick of the draft for the Cubs was fourth rounder Christian Franklin.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-21: LHP Jordan Wicks, Kansas State. My rank: #31.
I wasn't huge on Jordan Wicks, but a lot of teams in the teens really liked him and the Cubs must have been excited just to see him available outside the top twenty. He put himself on the map with an excellent 2020 season, allowing just one run over 26 innings (0.35 ERA) while striking out 26 to just four walks. Wicks was hit a little bit harder in Big 12 play in 2021 and finished with a 3.70 ERA and a 118/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 92.1 innings, but still impressed evaluators enough to be considered the near-consensus best left handed pitching prospect in college baseball. The 6'3" lefty doesn't throw crazy hard, sitting in the low 90's and topping out around 94, but the pitch plays up with high spin rates and ride. His main weapon is arguably the best changeup in the class, a plus-plus fader that just up and dies on its way to the plate. The central Arkansas native's curveball and slider were previously distant third and fourth pitches, but this spring they took a step forward to average or at times a tick above. Everything plays up because he has above average command and is a dogged competitor, throwing all of his pitches with conviction and pounding the strike zone. Those intangibles should enable him to work his way up through the minors rather quickly, and he could reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter soon. The lack of a plus breaker probably keeps him from being a #1 or #2, though it's hard to see the entire package allowing him to be anything less than a back-end guy. He signed at slot value for $3.13 million.

2-56: 3B James Triantos, James Madison HS [VA]. My rank: #62.
This is a unique one for me, because I played baseball at Madison from 2012-2015 and used to go to the Triantos house to hit in the batting cage in their back yard. James was only about twelve years old when I used to go over there with some of the other Madison players and I've since moved from Virginia to Texas, so I don't have any extra insight on his skillset, but it's still a fun connection for me. Triantos is the first player drafted out of my high school since Andy McGuire in 2013, who was two years ahead of me, and the second highest pick in school history behind 1971 second overall pick Jay Franklin. Originally a member of the 2022 class, he reclassified to 2021 to be age-appropriate and a massive spring catapulted him into top 100 conversation relatively late. He absolutely demolished northern Virginia pitching with above average raw power to all fields, whipping the barrel through the zone with great leverage and a swing path that allows him to make solid contact even when he's not on time. The hit tool has held up extremely well this spring, though it's relatively untested against higher level arms and the Cubs are showing a little bit of faith by taking him this high and giving him this large of a bonus. He shows a plus arm that helped him serve as the Warhawk ace this spring and throw a complete game in the state championship game, but he lacks the range to stick at shortstop and profiles better as a third baseman. Triantos is a hard worker who has been working out regularly since at least when I knew him as a pre-teenager, so he should make the most of his ability in pro baseball. He signed for $2.1 million, which was $820,000 above slot value.

3-93: LHP Drew Gray, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #166.
Here is a semi-hometown pick. Drew Gray is from Swansea, Illinois, just outside of St. Louis, and he transferred from Belleville High School to the IMG Academy this year to increase his stock. Gray was actually a position player until recently, only beginning to seriously focus on pitching last year, so there is a lot to project on. The 6'3" lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 93-94 early in starts but often dipping into the upper 80's towards the end. The pitch has high spin and great riding action, so the hope is that as he gets stronger and more accustomed to the mound, it will turn into a true weapon for him. The secondaries are more of a work in progress, with his breaking balls looking slurvy (albeit with high spin as well) and the changeup in its early stages. He does a great job of incorporating his legs into his delivery, though his mechanics could use a little synching up going forward. Gray had a chance to shoot up boards this spring, but nagging injuries kept him from doing so. This is exactly the kind of profile that could head to school and come out a completely different prospect, so the Cubs recognized that and are buying in early so that he can make those gains in their system. With added strength and more time to develop his offspeeds, he has a tremendous ceiling. Gray was committed to Arkansas but signed for $900,000, which was $272,100 above slot value.

4-123: OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas. My rank: #38.
This was one of the best picks in the draft in my and many others' opinions, especially considering that he signed below slot. Christian Franklin was solidly in the first round picture for me until his swing and miss issues started to bite him a bit late in the season, but even once the draft rolled around he seemed like at least a second round pick to me. I guess the industry was lower on him and he fell to the Cubs in the fourth round, who could be getting arguably the best value in the draft. He was right in the middle of the best offense in college baseball this year, slashing .274/.420/.544 with 13 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 78/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games against a very tough schedule. First we have huge raw power despite a lean 5'11" frame, as he's such a great athlete that he can channel that lean strength into big exit velocities and has now crushed 22 home runs, 27 doubles, and four triples in 141 college games, even as he's faced a steady diet of big SEC arms. He's an above average runner that channels his speed into excellent center field defense, and that strength comes back into play with a plus arm from center field. Really, the only question in the Kansas City-area native's game is around his hit tool, as he struck out at a 28.5% rate this year and he seemed to be trending in the wrong direction by the season's end. That's certainly an issue, but to me, there are so many other positives in this profile that the fourth round feels way too low, and his .402 career on-base percentage (.407 in SEC play alone this year) shows that he can absolutely handle advanced pitching. He signed for $425,000, which was $39,500 below slot value.

5-154: SS Liam Spence, Tennessee. Unranked.
Liam Spence travelled a long way to get to Chicago. A product of Geelong, Australia (about 40 miles outside Melbourne), he began his college career at Central Arizona before transferring to Tennessee. The Australian has been an absolute hit machine for the Volunteers, slashing .338/.471/.459 with six home runs and a 60/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games since the start of 2020 and serving as their primary leadoff man during the team's College World Series run. He has a quick right handed stroke that enables him to find the barrel very consistently against good pitching, and there is some moderate power in his skinny 6'1" frame. Spence is a very patient hitter who has walked in 23.7% of his plate appearances at Tennessee, really juicing his on-base percentages and giving him ample opportunities to use his solid speed. Given that he doesn't quite have enough glove to man shortstop every day, this is a pretty clear utility infield profile, especially given that he turned 23 in April. Spence signed for $135,000, which was $208,400 below slot value.

7-214: OF Parker Chavers, Coastal Carolina. My rank: #210.
Parker Chavers was trending towards being an early pick when he slashed .319/.435/.554 with 22 home runs over his first two seasons at Coastal Carolina, but he hurt his shoulder over the offseason and didn't get into action during the shortened 2020 season. He was still talked about in the back of the five round draft, but wound up undrafted and went back to school. This year, he hit a strong .318/.407/.477 with five home runs and a career-high 14 stolen bases in 49 games, but he didn't quite put it together like scouts had hoped. Chavers shows above average raw power from a smaller 5'11" frame, and over his first two seasons in Conway, he got to it consistently in games. However, in 2021, he toned down his approach a bit and dropped his strikeout rate from 19.3% over his first two seasons to 8.8% this year, but that came at the expense of his power as his five home runs and .477 slugging percentage were both career-lows. The Montgomery, Alabama native is a plus runner that will be able to handle all three outfield spots in pro ball, so he does a lot of things well. At this point, given that he turned 23 shortly after the draft, it's hard to see him putting it all together to the point where he can play full time, but the fact that he has (at separate times) shown the ability to hit for both power and average on top of being a good runner should give him quite a few ways to contribute as a fourth outfielder down the road. He signed for $125,000, which was $81,500 below slot value.

8-244: C Casey Opitz, Arkansas. Unranked.
Casey Opitz, like Parker Chavers, was eligible last year and had looks in the back of the five round draft (and both Chavers and Opitz just turned 23 five days apart). A relatively light hitter over the first two years of his career, he elevated his stock that year by jumping out to a hot .302/.361/.509 start in the shortened season, but that's looking like more a fluke now that he hit .257/.367/.346 with two home runs and a 33/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. It's an average hit tool and an ability to handle the strike zone well against advanced pitching that stand out on offense, but the below average power limits his ceiling. Where Opitz shines, though, is one defense. The Denver-area native has a plus glove and a plus arm, making him an asset behind the plate as is, but it's not just the tools that make him special. Opitz is also a high-energy leader back there who could be called Pitching Ninja's favorite catcher, firing up his pitchers after every strikeout. Pitchers absolutely love to work with him, and just his presence in the Chicago farm system could have a very positive impact on other young pitchers. This is a fun one even without much of a ceiling. He signed for $90,000, which was $78,500 below slot value.

2020 Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

1-16: SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS (IL)
2-51: LHP Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist
3-88: OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan
4-117: LHP Luke Little, San Jacinto CC
5-147: RHP Koen Moreno, Panther Creek HS (NC)

This is a pretty balanced draft class for the Cubs, and I think I like it overall. There's a lot of upside to play with here, and while there is significant risk in many of the picks, I don't think it's a crazy boom/bust class overall. Of course, the two highlights of the class are Chicago native Ed Howard and 6'8" fireballing lefty Luke Little, but the other three names are worthy of intrigue as well. I'm interested to see how this class turns out.
Full index of team reviews here

1-16: SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (my rank: 21)
Ed Howard is one of the most likable players in the class, having played shortstop for the famed Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. Six years later, he's a graduate of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago's Woodlawn neighborhood on the South Side. Some guys, you just like them the more you watch them play, and Howard is one of those. A gifted, natural athlete, he glides around the field and makes everything look easy out there. He's going to stick as a shortstop with natural instincts, arm strength, and range. At the plate, he's a balanced hitter with a good approach, the ability to make consistent hard contact, and some moderate present power. It's not the flashiest offensive profile at this point, but he's still filling out his 6'2" frame and his natural bat speed and feel for the barrel project to have him hitting for more and more impact as he develops and adds loft to his right handed stroke. That might point to 15-20 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, perhaps in somewhat of a Dansby Swanson profile with a bit more consistency. With good defense at shortstop, that's an all-around great profile. He signed at slot for $3.75 million instead of heading to Oklahoma for college. Pre-draft profile here.

2-51: LHP Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist (my rank: 84)
College relievers haven't had the most appealing track record lately, but the ease of projection and lack of necessary development always gets teams to bite early. That's the case with Burl Carraway, the top reliever in the class who should fly through the minors. The College Station, Texas native has been dominant at Dallas Baptist over the past two seasons, posting a 2.47 ERA and an 89/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 innings for the Patriots. In 2020, he struck out 17 of the 37 batters he faced (46%). Carraway pitches bigger than his 6' frame, using a plus mid 90's fastball that gets a ton of riding life and misses barrels consistently. He adds in a plus curveball with great depth and power, and he can go to either pitch for his strikeouts consistently. However, he's also a mediocre strikethrower, with a high effort delivery that will for sure keep him in the bullpen and which has led him to walk 31 batters in 51.1 innings in his career. He doesn't quite need to get all the way to average command to succeed in the majors, but if the Cubs want an impact reliever, they'll at least have to get him close. If he can land his pitches in the zone more frequently, he has the stuff, and not to mention the bulldog bullpen mentality, to pitch in the major in the very near future. Personally, I'm not a big fan of drafting college relievers this early not only because of the lack of ceiling, but because the floor isn't as high as it appears. Teams often find successful relievers by accident just by converting starters they found in the 14th round, so biting this early seems unnecessary to me. That said, none of this is Carraway's fault, because his stuff and mentality are legitimate. They also saved money here, as his $1.05 million signing bonus was about $390,000 below slot, allowing the Cubs to go above slot later in the draft. If it breaks right, they might have found their closer of the future. Pre-draft profile here.

3-88: OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (my rank: 117)
This is definitely one of the more interesting players in the draft. Nwogu had three different types of scholarship offers coming out of Pioneer High School in Ann Arbor, between football, baseball, and academic. He actually took the academic scholarship and ended up at Michigan for computer engineering, but he's just as much braun as he is brains. He's done nothing but absolutely rake for the Wolverines, slashing .334/.430/.545 with 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 96/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 career games, perhaps the best hitter on the surprise Michigan team that went all the way to the College World Series Finals in 2019. Nwogu is a physical beast at 6'3" and 235 pounds, showing both speed and power. He's been an extremely consistent hitter for the Wolverines, driving the ball around the field and over fences, drawing walks, and stealing bases. However, his swing is pretty awkward, as his quick hands get the barrel to the ball really quickly but he has virtually no load at all, putting his hands in somewhat of an awkward hitting position. He's made it work to this point and brings a ton of offensive upside, perhaps 20-25 home runs annually with decent on base percentages if he can improve his pitch recognition a little bit. Defensively, his plus speed gives him a chance to stick in center field, but he's not the most natural defender and might be forced over to left. The last player who hasn't signed, he's looking at a $678,600 slot value, but the Cubs only have a little under $540,000 left in their bonus pool and he might have to take a slight discount.

4-117: LHP Luke Little, San Jacinto CC (my rank: 93)
Oh boy is this a fun one. As we've all heard by now, Luke Little is a 6'8" lefty who hit 105 with his fastball during a quarantine bullpen. And that wasn't a fluke, as he's consistently hit triple digits in games and sat 101-103 in that famous bullpen session. I have to commend his catcher, because I think trying to catch that would have sent most of us to the ICU. Little's fastball isn't straight, either, coming from a crossfire delivery that gives it great angle and makes it not only hard to catch up to, but to square up. He has a slider as well that has flashed plus, but it's inconsistent and tends to play closer to average. Behind the slider are a curveball and changeup, which both need significant work. Throughout his career, Little has struggled immensely to throw strikes, as he hadn't proven he could repeat his delivery and looked very uncoordinated on the mound. In the shortened 2020 season, he showed a cleaner delivery and improved strike throwing, but there is still considerable work to be done. The good news is that he's very young for a college sophomore and doesn't turn 20 until August, which to me means he might just need time to grow into his massive body. I think it's a long shot to project him as a starter, but if he grows into his body as expected, a triple digit lefty reliever with a refined slider and better command would be a sight to behold. He signed for $492,700, right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

5-147: RHP Koen Moreno, Panther Creek HS, NC (unranked)
For their final pick, the Cubs went out to the Raleigh-Durham high school ranks and grabbed right hander Koen Moreno for a big over slot deal. Moreno, who checks in at 6'2", is fairly new to pitching but already shows plenty of talent the Cubs are happy to get their hands on. His fastball currently sits around 90, but he's been steadily adding velocity and he's been up as high as 94 at times. He adds a slurvy breaking ball that shows great depth and shape, but it needs to add power to be effective in pro ball. There's a changeup as well, but as with most high schoolers, you need to use your imagination to project it. The Cubs are buying Moreno's athleticism and loose arm, projecting him to add power to his stuff as he fills out, rather than letting him get to East Carolina and pitch his way to a higher draft position. He throws enough strikes to be comfortable with the stuff, and he could take some big leaps forward in pro ball once the Cubs start working with him. His $900,000 signing bonus, which bought him out of that ECU commitment, was $532,100 above slot value.

Undrafted: OF Bradlee Beesley, Cal Poly (unranked)
A product of San Leandro in California's East Bay region, Beesley has been a consistent, if unspectacular, performer for four years at Cal Poly, slashing .286/.353/.378 with four home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 103/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 180 games. He's also hit well for two years in the elite Cape Cod League, proving his consistency further. He probably projects more as a fourth or fifth outfielder than as a starter, but he's a good runner that will stick in center field and get on base at a good rate, albeit without a ton of power. As a senior sign with great feel for the game, he could move quickly through what's left of the minor leagues.

Undrafted: SS Scott McKeon, Coastal Carolina (unranked)
McKeon is another Raleigh-Durham native, though he bounced from Brunswick CC over to Coastal Carolina and is four years older than Koen Moreno. He's done nothing but hit over two seasons with the Chanticleers, slashing .344/.407/.500 with seven home runs and a 68/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games. He's got some wiry strength that was helping him tap a little more power in 2020, and while he'll never be a true slugger, the hope is that he can get close to average power in pro ball. He's a good runner that does pick up a lot of extra base hits, and while there isn't a ton of swing and miss, there's a little more than you would like out of a smaller senior sign like McKeon. He likely has the glove to stick at shortstop, which would take the most pressure off his bat and give him the best path to starting, but with Javier Baez entrenched at the position and Ed Howard coming up behind him, McKeon is more likely looking at a utility infield projection.

Undrafted: 1B/RHP Matt Mervis, Duke (unranked)
Here's a two-way player to track, even if he doesn't have a ton of upside. Mervis is a product of Georgetown Prep High School on the doorstep of Washington, DC, and he's improved considerably throughout his time at Duke. He's hit more than he's pitched, slashing .277/.378/.455 with nine home runs and a 52/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games while also putting up a 1.74 ERA and a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 10.1 innings over the last two seasons. At 6'4", he produces a lot of power from a quick left handed swing and was showing better plate discipline in 2020, profiling as perhaps a power hitting 1B/DH platoon type. On the mound, he shows a low 90's fastball and profiles best as a reliever, especially if he's going to keep hitting. The command is so-so.

2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have four prospects with serious impact potential, those being catcher Miguel Amaya, infielder Nico Hoerner, outfielder Brennen Davis, and pitcher Brailyn Marquez. However, aside from those four, there's not much to be excited about here. Ryan Jensen has that big fastball but hasn't proven much else, Chase Strumpf could be a useful bat, and Kohl Franklin has upside on the mound, but overall, it's a pretty shallow system that has long since been squeezed of big names like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Eloy Jimenez, and Dylan Cease. The good news is that a pair of late, late round arms in Jeffrey Passantino (40th round, 2017) and Jack Patterson (32nd round, 2018) have exceeded expectations in a big way.

Affiliates: AAA Iowa Cubs, AA Tennessee Smokies, High A Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Class A South Bend Cubs, short season Eugene Emeralds, complex level AZL and DSL Cubs

*Players are split by position and listed in order of a combination of closeness to the majors and prospect status. They are not ordered by prospect status alone.

Catcher
- Miguel Amaya (2020 Age: 21): There's not a lot to brag about in this system, but the Cubs do something a lot of teams don't, and that's a legitimate starting catching prospect. Miguel Amaya spent his age-20 season at High A Myrtle Beach, slashing .235/.351/.402 with eleven home runs and a 69/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games. Those numbers may look fairly ordinary, but for a 20 year old glove-first catcher in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League, you'll take that every time. Amaya is a lock to stay behind the plate with his innate feel for catching, and he shows strong plate discipline that helps his otherwise average bat play up. Just 21 for all of 2020, the Panamanian has the chance to hit 15-20 home runs annually in the majors while playing above average defense behind the plate.
- Ethan Hearn (2020 Age: 19): It wasn't the smoothest pro debut for the 2019 sixth rounder, as he slashed .163/.286/.275 with two home runs and a 36/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games in the complex level Arizona League, but he was also just 18 years old and fresh out of a Mobile, Alabama high school. Offensively, his power-oriented swing is his calling card, with the main question being how often he'll get to it against pro pitching due to so-so contact ability. He also has a strong arm behind the plate and is a good enough defensive catcher to stick there, but his game is raw overall and high school catchers don't have the strongest track record. This will be an interesting one to follow.
- Ronnier Quintero (2020 Age: 17): Turning just 17 years old right around the time this article is set to go out, Quintero is a long, long way off from the majors. He signed for $2.9 million out of Venezuela due to his big left handed power, though like Hearn, he will need to prove he can get to it because his swing has just a bit of length to it. He also has a strong arm and so-so defense, but it's not often you find catchers that young with that kind of power.
- Keep an eye on: Jhonny Pereda

Corner Infield
- Robel Garcia (2020 Age: 27): Garcia originally signed with the Indians in 2010, but he was released in 2013 and played in Italy for a few years. Back with the Cubs in 2019, he slashed .284/.369/.586 with 27 home runs and a 120/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 games with AA Tennessee and AAA Iowa, while a pair of major league call-ups in July and September saw him slash .208/.275/.500 with five home runs in 31 games. Playing every game like he has something to prove, Garcia can hit the ball a long way and was able to get to that power consistently even against advanced AAA pitching and a few times against MLB pitchers. He's played all around the infield, giving him a perfect power hitting utility infielder profile, even if his game does come with some swing and miss.
- Christopher Morel (2020 Age: 20-21): After a rough start to his pro career, Morel had a breakout 2019 with Class A South Bend, slashing .284/.320/.467 with six home runs and a 60/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games. Despite being listed at just 140 pounds, Morel is adept at finding the barrel and can spray line drives all over the field. The hope is that as he gets stronger and fills out his six foot frame, those doubles and triples will translate into home runs, ideally making him an all-around threat in the batter's box. He's also a sound defender who may be able to handle shortstop in a pinch, but he'll also be above average at third base. Overall, there's a lot to like with the Dominican, and if he comes back stronger in 2020, he could leap up prospect lists.
Keep an eye on: Jared Young, Cam Balego

Middle Infield
- Nico Hoerner (2020 Age: 22-23): If you're going to read about one player in this system, it's probably Hoerner that you want to research. A 2018 first round pick out of Stanford, he slashed .284/.344/.399 with three home runs and a 31/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at AA Tennessee before earning a major league call-up at 22 years old, in which he slashed .282/.305/.436 with three more home runs and an 11/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 games. An early 2020 NL Rookie of the Year candidate, he has a great chance to grab either the starting shortstop or second base position in Chicago with his exceptional, innate hitting ability. He finds the barrel with ease and is tough to strike out, though at a stocky 5'11" and with a line drive-oriented swing, he likely never hits more than 10-15 home runs per season, perhaps popping for close to 20 once or twice. He also doesn't walk much, so his value will come from high, fairly empty batting averages potentially north of .300. He's a bit stretched at shortstop and probably fits better at second base, but his feel for the game could help him be adequate at the former if the Cubs need him there. Overall, expect production similar to what Starlin Castro produced early in his Cubs career, but with more consistency.
- Zack Short (2020 Age: 24-25): Short slashed .235/.363/.404 with six home runs and a 72/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games between AA Tennessee, AAA Iowa, and rehab work in the Arizona League this year, showing power and sound infield defense while struggling to make contact consistently. That power and defense will help him get a shot at competing with Robel Garcia and Trent Giambrone for a utility infield spot, but he'll have to get to that power regularly if he wants to stick, and that may require him to tone down his swing a bit and focus more on contact. Expect him in the majors in 2020.
- Aramis Ademan (2020 Age: 21): For a kid who only just turned 21 in September, Ademan has sure been on prospect lists for a while. The kid who signed for $2 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2015 and who slashed .286/.365/.466 as an 18 year old in short season ball in 2017 has seen his bat stall a bit in High A, and he slashed just .221/.318/.334 with five home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 92/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at Myrtle Beach this year. That's a slight improvement from .207/.291/.273 at the same level a year ago, but the Cubs would really like to get that bat going. He has a simple swing, an advanced approach, and good feel for the game, but he has yet to prove that his tools themselves are strong enough to warrant his top prospect status. Defensively, he should stick at shortstop, which takes some pressure off the bat but he still needs to hit.
- Chase Strumpf (2020 Age: 22): The Cubs' second round pick in 2019 out of UCLA, Strumpf is a bat-first prospect who slashed .244/.374/.400 with three home runs and a 42/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games in his pro debut, mostly at short season Eugene but also with a few games in the Arizona League and at Class A South Bend. He's got some moderate pop and can find the barrel regularly, and his approach was a bit more advanced than expected once he got to pro ball. Strumpf will have to continue to make strides with his plate discipline in order to help his hit tool play up, as he's just an adequate defender at second base who can get the job done but not much more. Overall, he projects as a 15-20 home run bat with on-base percentages around .350 if he can indeed keep his aggressive approach in check.
- Keep an eye on: Trent Giambrone, Vimael Machin, Andy Weber, Pedro Martinez

Outfield
- Brennen Davis (2020 Age: 20): While Nico Hoerner is perhaps the system's top prospect, Brennan Davis has the highest upside of any hitter in this system. The 6'4" outfielder was all projection when he was drafted in the second round out of a Phoenix-area high school in 2018, and despite being limited by hand injuries in 2019, he still broke out to slash .305/.381/.525 with eight home runs and a 38/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games at Class A South Bend. He's an exceptional athlete that possesses big time power and speed, and by getting to that power consistently in a small sample in full season ball in 2019, his bust-risk is shrinking by the day. There is still a lot of work to be done, and Davis only turned 20 this offseason, but he has the upside of a 25-30 home run bat who can stick in center field.
- D.J. Artis (2020 Age: 23): A seventh round pick out of Liberty in 2018, Artis had a solid if unspectacular pro debut by slashing .259/.371/.341 with a pair of home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 67/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, mostly at Class A South Bend with a few in High A Myrtle Beach as well as complex level rehab work. Only 5'9", he's an extremely patient hitter who has posted high on-base percentages wherever he's gone, and his ability to find good pitches to hit helps his bat play up. On the flip side, he has virtually no power, so in order to provide value on offense, he has to continue to hit lots of singles, draw lots of walks, and steal bases when he can. A below average arm limits him to left field, but he's fast enough to be above average there and could work his way up as a fourth outfielder.
- Nelson Maldonado (2020 Age: 23-24): The Cubs may have gotten a steal here in the 21st round. Maldonado was a senior sign known for coming up with clutch hits at Florida, and he raked in his pro debut by slashing .332/.378/.456 with three home runs and a 35/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games between the complex level Arizona League, short season Eugene, and Class A South Bend. He turned 23 in August but he's already made up for lost time by mastering Class A and should begin 2020 in High A with the chance to hit his way to AA. He's a stocky guy at 5'10" who can hit for average power, but he shows an advanced approach and has simply hit everywhere he's gone. His ceiling is that of a platoon or bench bat in the outfield, but don't sleep on him.
- Cole Roederer (2020 Age: 20): Projected similarly to Brennen Davis when they were drafted fifteen picks apart in 2018, Roederer didn't quite get off to the hot start that Davis did, slashing .224/.319/.365 with nine home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 112/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at South Bend. He generates above average power from a smooth, clean left handed swing with the ability to get some serious loft and distance on the ball, but his raw approach at the plate held him back a bit in 2020 as pro pitching was able to get him to chase pitcher's pitches rather than finding his own pitch to hit. There's still a ton of upside here and he just turned 20 in September, so the upside remains intriguing even if the numbers haven't caught up yet.
- Nelson Velazquez (2020 Age: 21): Velazquez generates a ton of power from the right side of the plate, and few players in this system can make the ball jump off their bats like he does, but a raw approach has kept him from getting to that power consistently so far. In 2019, he slashed .288/.341/.441 with six home runs and an 82/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 games between rehab work and South Bend, giving some hope that 2020 could be a breakout year if he just hones that approach in a little bit. The shallowness of this system means that with only Brennen Davis truly ahead of him on the depth chart, increased production in 2020 could push him ahead of some of the other guys on this list and put an arrow next to his name.
- Keep an eye on: Donnie Dewees, Zac Taylor

Starting Pitching
- Adbert Alzolay (2020 Age: 25): Alzolay has been up and down and up and down for years, and while he's finally big league ready, it's hard to tell exactly what he's going to be. This year, he posted a 4.80 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 94/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings, mostly in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League, and he also carried a 7.30 ERA and a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 12.1 major league innings. Alzolay sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a hammer curveball that's tough to square up, but his changeup and command have lagged just enough to keep him from putting it all together at the upper levels. He's athletic and has shown the ability to throw consistent strikes in the past, so the Cubs have not given up on him as a starter, and a bit more consistency could make him a #3 or a #4 guy. However, there is risk that he's moved to the bullpen, where he could settle in as a fastball/curveball guy and perhaps become a set-up man. Either way, expect to see him in the majors in some capacity in 2020.
- Brailyn Marquez (2020 Age: 21): There is no question that Brailyn Marquez is the best pitching prospect in this system, which is why I'm listing him ahead of some more advanced pitchers in AA and AAA. He's a 6'4" lefty who pitched the whole 2019 season at 20 years old, posting a 3.13 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 128/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 103.2 innings between Class A South Bend and High A Myrtle Beach. He sits consistently in the mid 90's while bumping the upper 90's with his fastball, which has been enough to blow away hitters in A ball. He also adds a diving curveball that generates plenty of swings and misses, and getting a bit more consistent with it would give him two easy plus pitches. He also throws a changeup, though his command has been inconsistent and is probably the biggest thing he needs to work on. Even if the changeup never gets better than average, just refining his command a little bit could make him a #2 or #3 starter, and he should get an extended crack at AA in 2020, potentially even forcing a call-up if he does well.
- Cory Abbott (2020 Age: 24): A second round pick out of Loyola Marymount in 2017, Abbott has had success throughout his minor league career and posted a 3.01 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 166/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 146.2 innings at AA Tennessee in 2019. What he lacks in velocity he makes up for in pitching savvy, as he mixes his fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup well enough to keep hitters guessing despite the cutter being his only true out pitch. He's durable and throws plenty of strikes, giving him a high floor as a back-end starter or long reliever, though his ceiling is limited and he's probably a #4 at best.
- Tyson Miller (2020 Age: 24-25): Miller dominated at AA Tennessee this year (2.56 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 80/18 K/BB in 88 IP) but the story was not quite the same at AAA Iowa (7.58 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 43/25 K/BB in 48.2 IP). He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider, and his good-enough command was enough to make it play up and avoid hard contact in AA. However, hitters squared him up too much in AAA, as he allowed 13 home runs in those 48.2 innings, so he'll have to continue to improve on locating his fastball and avoiding barrels, especially as a fly ball pitcher. He may be ticketed for the bullpen, but another crack at AAA in 2020 could yield better results and help him on his way to being a #4 or #5 starter.
- Riley Thompson (2020 Age: 23-24): An eleventh round pick out of Louisville in 2018, injuries had limited how often Thompson was able to get on the mound for the Cardinals so the Cubs have brought him along slowly so far. He spent 2019 with Class A South Bend, where he was a bit older than most of his competition, but his 3.06 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 87/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings meant that the season was still a success. Then in the Midwest League championship, he struck out ten over five perfect innings to put an exclamation point on his season. Now healthy, he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a plus curveball that really dives when he's throwing it right. The changeup is coming along nicely, and with average command and a clean delivery, he has the makings of a #4 starter now that he's got some consistent innings under his belt. He turns 24 in July, so there's a bit of minor urgency to start climbing the ladder, and he'll start with High A in 2020.
- Kohl Franklin (2020 Age: 20): The Cubs think they've found lightning in a bottle in Kohl Franklin, a sixth round pick out of a Tulsa-area high school in 2018. He's a 6'4" righty that posted a 2.36 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 52/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 innings, mostly at short season Eugene, and he did so with a low to mid 90's fastball and advanced changeup that were too much for short season hitters. He's still working on his breaking ball and has yet to prove any kind of durability, but there is a ton to like in the projectable kid from Oklahoma.
- Ryan Jensen (2020 Age: 22): Projected as more a third round pick heading into the 2019 draft, Jensen was the first surprise of the day when the Cubs picked him with the 27th overall pick before he posted a 2.25 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a 19/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 innings with short season Eugene. He sits consistently and easily in the mid, and sometimes upper, 90's with his fastball, and he gets so much running action on it that it plays up to being a plus or even plus-plus pitch. He also adds a slider that looks like a plus pitch at times but which can flatten out, and he lacks much of a changeup at this point. The command is also very much a work in progress, as he was generally able to throw strikes at Fresno State but never could quite locate them, which will be hugely important in pro ball. It's more of a reliever-ish profile, especially considering he could hit 100 in short stints, but the Cubs obviously saw enough in him as a starter to take him in the first round and they will develop him as such for the foreseeable future.
- Richard Gallardo (2020 Age: 18): As far as 18 year old pitchers go, Richard Gallardo is pretty advanced. Pitching the 2019 season at 17 years old, the Venezuelan product had a 3.93 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 25/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings between complex ball and short season Eugene, while most pitchers his age are still in the Dominican Summer League. He comes in with a low 90's fastball, a good curveball, and an advanced changeup, all of which he commands moderately well. He'll likely return to Eugene in 2020 with the chance to pitch his way into full season ball, putting him ahead of schedule.
- Keep an eye on: Jeffrey Passantino, Justin Steele, Erich Uelmen, Jack Patterson, Keegan Thompson, Jeremiah Estrada, Yovanny Cruz

Relief Pitching
- Oscar De La Cruz (2020 Age: 25): De La Cruz signed with the Cubs way back in 2012, but he didn't reach full season ball until late in the 2016 season and was inconsistent in his first taste of AA in 2018. This past year, he spent most of the year with AA Tennessee while also making a few starts at High A Myrtle Beach, posting a 3.64 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 105/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings in 34 games (11 starts). He had his best performance in those 23 relief appearances, posting a 3.86 ERA and a 49/9 strikeout to walk ratio, and the Cubs will keep him there going forward. He's a 6'4" righty that comes at hitters with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, both of which have played up in the bullpen now that he doesn't have to worry about pacing himself. It will be interesting to see how he does in his first season as a full-time reliever in 2020, where he can hopefully keep his command above average while missing bats with his two above average pitches and potentially pitch his way into the Wrigley bullpen.
- Brendon Little (2020 Age: 23-24): Little has started 39 of the 40 games he's appeared in so far in his minor league career, but I'm preemptively moving him to the bullpen for this list because his profile fits much better there. Over 12 starts this year, he posted a 3.58 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 57/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.1 innings between complex level rehab, Class A South Bend, and High A Myrtle Beach, but he was hit around a bit at Myrtle Beach with a 5.95 ERA. Little can get into the mid 90's with his fastball consistently when he's at his best, but he's also fallen below that regularly in pro ball as a starter, while his typical power curveball has softened up. He has so much arm strength that the Cubs think they can still work with the command and deeper parts of his arsenal, but to me, the best option would be to just send him to the bullpen and let that fastball/curveball combination play up with less need for good command, which he does not have.
- Michael McAvene (2020 Age: 22): McAvene, a teammate of Riley Thompson at Louisville, was the Cubs' third round pick in 2019 and he started off with six strong performances in short season ball, posting a 1.42 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 20/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 12.2 innings. Although he was a reliever at Louisville, all six of those appearances were starts, though he also averaged just two innings per, so it's unclear what his role going forward will be. As a reliever, he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider that misses bats, with good enough command to make it work. As a starter, he'll need to add a changeup and maintain the sharpness of his stuff without losing command, which is a lot to work on but also completely possible. He probably ends up back in the bullpen eventually, and he could shoot up through the minors if the Cubs go that route, but deploying him as a starter could unlock upside that was previously untapped.
- Keep an eye on: James Norwood, Ben Hecht, Chad Hockin