2017 Draft Review: New York Yankees

First 5 rounds: Clarke Schmidt (1-16), Matt Sauer (2-54), Trevor Stephan (3-92), Canaan Smith (4-122), Glenn Otto (5-152).
Also notable: Dalton Lehnen (6-182), Tristan Beck (29-872), Jake Mangum (30-902), Tanner Burns (37-1112).

The Yankees employed an interesting draft strategy here, leaning heavily on right handed pitching, as nine of their first eleven picks were right handed pitchers, an a tenth was a left handed pitcher. However, they did a good job in the early rounds of at least diversifying the types of pitchers they drafted (more on that below). It looks like they will try to cut a deal with first rounder Clarke Schmidt, and use that saved money to try to sign second rounder Matt Sauer and possibly fallers Tristan Beck and Tanner Burns, as Jake Mangum has said he will not sign. The Yankees have been pretty good at developing pitching lately, with homegrown guys like Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Giovanny Gallegos, Chance Adams, and Domingo Acevedo making or looking to make an impact on the big league club. Additionally, former first rounders Ian Clarkin and James Kaprielian have run into their share of issues, but they are 22 and 23 respectively and far from being lost causes. With all this new pitching coming into the system, those ranks could grow even larger.

1-16: RHP Clarke Schmidt (my rank: 34)
The Yankees reached down the board for a money saver here, but Schmidt could easily end up providing first round value for New York in his own right. The South Carolina ace was 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP when he went down with Tommy John surgery in April, potentially pushing himself into top ten consideration had he stayed healthy and maintained the performance. However, Schmidt had durability questions before the injury, and missing a year gives more grounds for concern. That said, he doesn't have too many weaknesses on the mound, with a low 90's sinker that will play well in Yankee Stadium and a slider/changeup combo that gives him one of the better arsenals in the class.

2-54: RHP Matt Sauer (my rank: 29)
As you can see, I ranked Sauer slightly higher than Schmidt, though Sauer will be much more expensive as a high schooler with a commitment to Arizona. Sauer is a raw right handed pitcher, though he has a very high ceiling. He has terrible mechanics, but he still runs his fastball into the mid 90's with a slider that is absolutely nasty on the right days. If he's so good while doing everything wrong, imagine how good he can be once he starts doing things right. Of course, with the need to rework his delivery, there is heightened risk, and he could very well end up in the bullpen if he continues to use lots of effort in his delivery.

3-92: RHP Trevor Stephan (my rank: 104)
Stephan is a 6'5" college righty from Arkansas, with one of the better fastballs in the draft. It sits in the low to mid 90's, and he commands it well to help it play up. His slider and changeup need work, though both secondaries showed progress this year and he could cut it as a starter if he continues with the trajectory he's currently on.

4-122: OF Canaan Smith (unranked)
No, not the country singer. A catcher in high school, the Yankees drafted their lone hitter of the first eleven rounds as an outfielder. According to Baseball America, Smith walked 57 times this year, which is among the top ten single season totals in high school history, so he obviously has a patient approach. There's thunder in his left handed bat, too, though he'll need to learn to get his upper and lower halves on time together. It's a very interesting offensive package, one that will require some fine tuning but one that could pay off in a big way down the road.

5-152: RHP Glenn Otto (my rank: 105)
Back to the right handed pitchers. Otto has been a well-known name for the Rice Owls for some time now, spending his entire career in the bullpen and serving the last two seasons as the team's closer. He wasn't quite as dominant as teams would have hoped for in 2017, which is why he slid to the fifth round, but he brings a plus fastball/curveball combination from a durable, 6'4" frame. Some teams think he can start, and I'm not sure how the Yankees feel, but command issues plus the lack of a third pitch will make that difficult. He could be in the Bronx bullpen fairly soon if he remains a reliever.

29-872: RHP Tristan Beck (my rank: 33)
Tristan Beck was in the running to be drafted in the top ten picks before he blew out his back and had to miss the season, but he still had a chance of going in the top 30-40 picks if he hadn't fallen due to (what my guess is) signability. A draft-eligible sophomore, if he doesn't sign with New York, he'll be able to return to Stanford as a redshirt-sophomore and still have plenty of leverage in next year's draft. When he's healthy, Beck shows a full arsenal that could make him an above-average MLB starting pitcher if not better, and he would have had one of the higher floors in this draft class had he not gotten hurt. Yankees fans should be excited if Beck signs, but I doubt it happens in the 29th round.

37-1112: RHP Tanner Burns (my rank: 43)
Burns is another right handed pitcher (sense the theme?) that fell due to signability, and he probably has even less of a chance of signing than Beck. Burns is a stocky, 6' Alabama high schooler who has as high a floor as any high school pitcher (this is the only time you will hear "floor" and "high school pitcher" in the same sentence). A very competent moundsman, he throws in the low 90's but accompanies his fastball with a solid curveball and a decent changeup. He commands it all well, but it looks like he's headed to Auburn, where he could turn himself into a Griffin Canning-type pitcher in three years.

Others: 6th rounder Dalton Lehnen has the distinction of being one of only two players to have been drafted out of a school in South Dakota this year, the other being SD State catcher Luke Ringhofer, who went to the Orioles in the 22nd round. Lehnen, out of Augustana College, has a profile very similar to that of Trevor Stephan, though Lehnen is left handed and less proven. Though I attend Virginia Tech, I have gotten surprisingly few chances to see 15th rounder Aaron McGarity throw, as he was limited to just ten appearances last year and seemed to rarely pitch when I was at the games this year. In the few times I did get to see the senior right hander throw, he ran his fastball into the low 90's and flashed a power breaking ball that could miss bats. At 6'3", 180 lbs, he is more projectable than the typical 22 year old, but he'll have to improve his command and prove he can hold up to a full season's work if he wants to cut it in pro ball. 30th rounder Jake Mangum ranked 143rd on my list as a speedy leadoff type at Mississippi State, but he has already announced that he will not sign, making any discussion here moot. Mangum's freshman season rocked the SEC, as he slashed .408/.458/.510 for the Bulldogs, but he slumped to .324/.380/.385 as a draft-eligible sophomore this year. 33rd rounder Jacob Stevens, you guessed it, a right handed pitcher, will likely return to school to re-establish his draft stock. He dominated as a freshman at Boston College last year (2.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 70/33 K/BB as a starter), but struggled as a draft-eligible sophomore this year (5.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 73/42 K/BB). If the Yankees sign him and get him back to his 2016 form, this is a steal in the late rounds.

2017 Draft Demographic Preview: High Ceiling HS Pitchers

First Tier: Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Shane Baz
Second Tier: DL Hall, Sam Carlson, Trevor Rogers, Blayne Enlow, Matt Sauer, Hans Crouse
Third Tier: Alex Scherff, Joe Perez, Jake Eder, Landon Leach, James Marinan, Caden Lemons, Bryce Bonnin
Others: C.J. Van Eyk, Gavin Williams, Jackson Rutledge, Nick Storz, Daniel Ritcheson, Cade Cavalli

Sticking with the high ceiling theme, let's look at the one thing more risky than a toolsy high school hitter: a raw high school pitcher. Now, not all of these guys are raw, especially in the first and second tiers, but some of those guys in the "others" section basically just throw fastballs at this point. This list encompasses most high school pitchers, but I'm focusing on ceiling here so I left out the Hagen Danners and Tanner Burns's to focus on those who could legitimately be top of the rotation forces. Of course, most of these guys won't ever be impact arms on an MLB staff, but then again, some may win Cy Young Awards.

Tier I (Greene, Gore, Baz)
We all agree that Hunter Greene is the top talent in this class. He has the best chance on this list to be an ace, coming in with easy upper 90's velocity and some secondaries that flash plus. No other high schoolers in this draft can match his velocity, and unlike the guys further down the list that come close, he has solid pitchability. MacKenzie Gore and Shane Baz aren't the same pitcher, but the deeper you look, the more similarities you find with them. Both began the season on the fringes of the first round conversation, but have positioned themselves to easily go in the top half of the first round. Scouts love both of their competitive spirits, and both are armed with low to mid 90's fastballs that they can bump up to 97. With full arsenals, they easily project as starters, though Gore commands his pitches better and has the advantage of being left handed. Gore also has a higher ceiling due to his more raw mechanics, and will likely go about five or so picks ahead of Baz, but you can't go wrong with either of these guys.

Tier II (Hall, Carlson, Rogers, Enlow, Sauer, Crouse)
Standing at 6'1", DL Hall is the second shortest guy on this list ahead of only the 6' Bryce Bonnin, but with his small frame, he fits into the "undersized lefty" demographic, which doesn't typically have a high ceiling. However, Hall can absolutely bring it, coming in in the low to mid 90's with arguably the best curveball in the class. As a long-established prospect, he's very different from the other high ceiling arm that sits right next to him on overall big board, Sam Carlson. A Minnesota product, Carlson surprised everybody by adding 5 MPH to his fastball this spring, now sitting in the mid 90's, with a power slider and a surprisingly good changeup for a cold weather high schooler. He commands it all from a 6'4" frame, giving him a higher floor than most prep arms. Trevor Rogers and Blayne Enlow share a lot of similarities despite different handedness. The 6'6" Rogers will likely go a little before the 6'4" Enlow because he is left handed, though both saw their draft stock dip a bit this spring with decreased velocity. Rogers throws a little harder, in the low 90's, while Enlow sits around 90, but Enlow's excellent curveball, which rivals that of Hall, is more advanced than Rogers' decent slider. Both are projection plays, as it's easy to envision both getting into the mid 90's when they fill out their projectable frames and clean up their mechanics, with Rogers having more work to do than Enlow. The 6'4" Matt Sauer and the 6'5" Hans Crouse both look like relievers at this point, with tall frames and high effort deliveries. Both throw very hard and project to be drafted in the same range, 25-35ish, so teams considering one are bound to be considering the other at the same time. Crouse's skinnier frame is a little bit more projectable, and he sits in the mid 90's a little bit more consistently than Sauer. That said, Sauer's slider is a little better than Crouse's curveball. If they both end up relievers, I think Crouse will be the better pitcher, but I am more optimistic about Sauer's ability to stick in a starting rotation. He has a thicker build and a very different pitching motion from Crouse. While Crouse generates his velocity by leaning back and then short-arming his delivery, Sauer does so by the sheer strength of his arm and by extending his long arms (it's important to note that Crouse has similar arm strength and long arms). I think Sauer's delivery is inefficient, and cleaning it up/getting him more on line to the plate can pay huge dividends. In contrast, I don't see much a team can do to tinker with Crouse's delivery without changing his entire profile as a pitcher, so he's probably best being left as he is with some minor adjustments. Because of all of this, I rank Sauer a few spots higher than Crouse, but it wouldn't be unjustifiable to take Crouse first.

Tier III (Scherff, Perez, Eder, Leach, Marinan, Lemons, Bonnin)
Alex Scherff is an interesting pitcher. He's a full year older than the typical high school senior, and he has transferred high schools three times, pitching at three different schools in his first three years of high school before transferring back to the original one for his senior year. It all adds up to a very weird profile before he even steps on the mound, but the stuff is premium. A shorter righty at 6'2", he can run his riding fastball into the mid 90's deep into starts, and his full arsenal is highlighted by an excellent changeup, possibly the best in this high school draft class. His slider and curveball need work, but the slider does have some late bite, and he could be a mid rotation starter if it all comes together. I'm going to skip around and compare Joe Perez to James Marinan, both of whom are projectable right handers who pitch in south Florida. They also both popped onto scouts radars this season, quite literally as Marinan found a mid 90's fastball and Perez touched the upper 90's. They both have a lot of work to do on their offspeeds, though Marinan's curveball is coming along well and he has a better chance of sticking in a starting rotation. Perez is more of a projection play because he only started pitching recently, and he is also the second youngest player in the entire list of potential top 100 picks, trailing only fellow south Floridan Mark Vientos by three days. Perez's ceiling easily fits in with Tier II, but the distance he has to get there keeps him in Tier III. Jake Eder and Caden Lemons can be compared to each other as tall, projectable picks with terrible mechanics. The 6'4" Eder and the 6'6" Lemons can both sit in the low 90's easily. Both will need complete overhauls of their mechanics, but being able to do what they do as it is is pretty incredible. Eder's mechanics are simply all over the place, while Lemons looks like he's just walking up to the mound and throwing the ball. 6'4" Canadian Landon Leach has similar stuff to Eder, though he is right handed and has a cleaner delivery. He's a safer bet, but also probably has a lower ceiling. Lastly, Bryce Bonnin has a devastating fastball/slider combo, sitting in the low to mid 90's depending on when you see him and throwing hitters off with that nasty slider. He may profile best as a reliever down the road due to his shorter stature (he's 6') and inconsistencies with being able to maintain his command. If he does end up in the bullpen, he has the kind of stuff that can play up there and be very valuable.