2017 Draft Review: Houston Astros

First 5 rounds: J.B. Bukauskas (1-15), Joe Perez (2-53), Corbin Martin (2-56), J.J. Matijevic (CBB-75), Tyler Ivey (3-91), Peter Solomon (4-121), Nathan Perry (5-151)
Also notable: Jake Adams (6-181), Corey Julks (8-241), Kyle Serrano (10-301), Trey Cumbie (38-1141)

The Astros had five of the first 91 picks, and they used them to get a lot of big name players. They also picked up a lot of local guys, including two players from the University of Houston, one each from Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Lamar, and a pair of Texas community college players, as well as two players from neighboring Oklahoma and one from Louisiana. I like the mix of players the Astros got here, and with many of their top prospects graduating or getting traded away, they did a good job of re-injecting talent into the system.

1-15: RHP J.B. Bukauskas (my rank: 6)
I got to the chance to play against Bukauskas in high school (he threw a shutout), though I did not get an at bat that game. The UNC ace was a virtual lock for the top ten picks, but he slipped right at the end because of a couple of tough starts at the end of the season, one of which I attended. This is a great pick in the middle of the first round, as Bukauskas has ace potential (he's been compared to Sonny Gray) but could easily fall back on a bullpen job if that doesn't work. Even with those two tough starts at the end, he had an excellent junior season, going 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking out 116 in 92.2 innings. His fastball sits in the mid 90's to upper 90's with running action, and his power mid 80's to upper 80's slider is one of the best pitches in the draft when he can command it. However, he ran into trouble when I saw him pitch when he couldn't locate the slider for strikes, allowing hitters to lay off and sit on his fastball, which they squared up when it was up in the zone. If the Astros can improve his slider command and help bring that already-solid changeup along, they could have themselves an ace.

2-53: 3B Joe Perez (my rank: 72)
This is one of the most interesting picks in the draft. I originally had Perez ranked in the 50's, higher than any board I had seen, but as a pitcher. I thought he had so much upside on the mound that I didn't even look at him as a hitter, but then he blew out his elbow at the end of the season and required Tommy John surgery, dropping him to 72nd on my list, still as a pitcher. He showcases good power as a hitter and has the upside of a starting third baseman, though his defense has been questioned and could push him to first base. In his favor is that he is a full year younger than the typical high school senior. This is an interesting pick because it's higher than almost anybody thought he would be drafted and because he was taken as a hitter, when general consensus was that he was a better pitching prospect.

2-56: RHP Corbin Martin (my rank: 57)
The Astros had an extra second round pick because of the Cardinals' hacking scandal, and they used it to take their first of many local players. Corbin Martin had a rough season at Texas A&M in 2016 (2-1, 5.47 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 33/21 K/BB, primarily as a reliever), but proceeded to dominate the Cape Cod League (0-1, 1.15 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 22/3 K/BB) and came into 2017 with big expectations. For the most part, he met them this year, going 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP, striking out 95 and walking 38 in 87.2 innings, primarily as a starter. Martin stands 6'2" and can throw his fastball anywhere from 90-98, sitting more 90-95 as a starter and closer to the mid to upper 90's as a reliever. His power curveball has big break and grades out as plus, but his command still needs improvement. He took a step forward with it this year, but still walked 3.9 per nine, and it may ultimately force him to the bullpen. It's hard to say whether Martin is a starter or a reliever going forward, but it will be fun to watch.

CBB-75: 1B J.J. Matijevic (my rank: 62)
With the last pick of day one, the Astros got a great hitter from the University of Arizona. Though his freshman and sophomore seasons for the Wildcats were so-so, he played great over two years on the Cape (.349/.391/.507, 6 HR in 61 games), and he broke out to slash .383/.436/.633 with 10 home runs as a junior this year for Arizona. His load provides most of his power as he gains ground, and the Cape results mean his power has a good chance of playing up, but his walk rate was a bit low (8.4% this year) for my tastes. Still a great pick here because of the offensive upside.

3-91: RHP Tyler Ivey (unranked)
Ivey is another local guy, having pitched decently well for Texas A&M as a freshman last year (2-3, 3.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 48/15 K/BB) before transferring to a Texas junior college, where he fits a classic back-end starter profile. He has a full but unspectacular arsenal, including a low 90's fastball that he can cut for some movement, a decent slider/curveball combo, and a changeup, all from a clean delivery and a 6'4" frame. If he wants to cut it as a starter in pro ball, he'll need to prove he can miss more bats with his average stuff, but everything else is there. Ivey signed for $450,000, which is $147,800 below slot.

4-121: RHP Peter Solomon (my rank: 91)
I got to see Peter Solomon make a dominant start against Virginia Tech as a sophomore last year. Despite being a college pitcher, he's more of a high-risk, high-reward pick, as he is a projectable 6'4" and can run his fastball into the mid 90's. He struggles with command, and though he made slight improvements this year, it wasn't as much as scouts were hoping for. He can maintain his fastball velocity deep into games and his curveball has big break, but he did hit a wall and struggled with command in the fifth inning when I saw him last year. After walking 42 batters in 57.2 innings for Notre Dame last year, he walked 28 in 54 innings this year, so he's similar to Corbin Martin in that sense. Solomon signed for $420,000, which is $17,400 below slot.

6-181: 1B Jake Adams (unranked)
Adams spent two years at an Des Moines Area Community College before transferring to Iowa this year, and to say the results were immediate would be an understatement. In 61 games, the 6'2", 250 pound first baseman slashed .335/.417/.747 while leading all of Division I with 29 home runs. The massive power alone was enough to get him taken in the top 200 picks, but he does have things to work through. In addition to a lack of track record, his 57/29 strikeout to walk ratio (20.1% to 10.2%) was less than ideal. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game, but if you include his community college stats, he has now blasted 71 home runs in three seasons post-high school. Adams signed for $210,000, which is $39,600 below slot.

Others: 5th rounder Nathan Perry is a Blue Ridge boy from Bassett, Virginia, one who flashes some tools but has a lot of work to do. The high school catcher shows power at the plate, but he has a lot of swing and miss, so he's far from a given to reach the majors. He also has a lot of work to do defensively, but there is upside here. 8th rounder Corey Julks, another local guy out of the University of Houston, was the very last player ranked on the BA 500, coming off a strong junior year where he slashed .335/.426/.572 with nine home runs and 15 stolen bases for the Cougars. He's a solid defender and a competent hitter, one who profiles well as a fourth outfielder and should provide good value in the 8th round. 10th rounder Kyle Serrano is a very familiar name for fans of college baseball, and not just because his father Dave has 446 wins as the head coach for Cal State Fullerton, UC-Irvine, and Tennessee. The younger Serrano played four years for his dad in Knoxville, but struggled with injuries and finished his career 8-10 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 51 games (19 starts). He pitched well on the Cape in 2015 (3.68 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 38/13 K/BB) but missed most of 2016 and 2017 with injuries, though he did come back and strike out 21 batters in the only 9.2 innings he threw this year. 38th rounder Trey Cumbie has been nothing but dominant for the University of Houston over the past two seasons, going 15-4 with a 1.77 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP for the Cougars, and this was especially valuable when his rotation-mate Seth Romero was kicked off the team. He's not a strikeout guy, racking up just 124 in 157.1 innings for his career, but he makes his money (theoretically, since NCAA players are unpaid) through his command, walking just 24 in his career. It's hard for me to see him signing here, but he could emerge as a top 5 round pick next year.

2017 Draft Demographics: Florida Prep Talent

First Tier: Mark Vientos, Jeter Downs, M.J. Melendez
Second Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Jake Eder
Third Tier: Joe Perez, James Marinan, C.J. Van Eyk, Shane Drohan
Others: Hunter Ruth, Sam McMillan, Tommy Mace, Zach Jackson

If the SEC is the epitome of college baseball, then Florida is where you go for the best high school talent. Miami-area schools like American Heritage (Vientos), Westminster Christian (Melendez), and Archbishop McCarthy (Perez) dominate the high school scene year in and year out, and many of the game's top players were drafted out of high school in Florida. That includes Alex Rodriguez (Westminster Christian), Chipper Jones (Bolles), Manny Machado (Brito Miami), Jose Fernandez (Alonso), Zack Greinke (Apopka), Andrew McCutchen (Fort Meade), Ian Desmond (Sarasota), Gio Gonzalez (Monsignor Pace), and Eric Hosmer (American Heritage), just to name a few.

Tier I (Vientos, Downs, Melendez)
Mark Vientos of Eric Hosmer's alma mater, American Heritage HS, is one of the most polarizing prospects in the draft. The youngest player to even be considered for my top 100 (he turns 18 in December), Vientos has a big bat from the right side and the ability to play a solid third base, earning Manny Machado-lite comparisons. He's been up and down with the bat this spring, but a team banking on his youth will compare this to what most players do during their junior seasons in high school, and he could come off the board in the first round or outside the top 50. Jeter Downs, meanwhile, is universally loved, and not just because he has the best baseball name in this entire draft class (sorry, D'Mond LaFond). Playing at Gio Gonzalez's former school, Pace HS, he has endeared himself to scouts with his scrappy style of play and improving bat. The 5'11" infielder could be similar to Dustin Pedroia, and he has pushed himself into late first round/supplemental round conversations with his strong spring. We went over M.J. Melendez of Westminster Christian, the school that produced Alex Rodriguez, at length in the catchers' discussion, but he's a power bat with swing and miss concerns that should be able to stay behind home plate with his strong defense.

Tier II (Seise, McConnell, Eder)
While Tier I is made up of players from south Florida, Tier II moves up north a bit. Chris Seise comes from the Orlando area, and he and Space Coast area star Brady McConnell are easy to compare to each other. While Seise has improved his stock significantly this spring, McConnell came in as a possible first rounder, though his up and down season has put him about on par with Seise. Seise has the more conventional swing, while McConnell is similar to Arizona first baseman J.J. Matijevic in that he contracts and unloads on the ball to generate power. This has led to swing and miss from McConnell, and I get a little nervous that he won't be able to adjust to pro ball because of it. Both are solid shortstops, and while neither is likely to be forced to second or third base, McConnell is an even stronger bet to stay on shortstop. Lastly, we go back back down to south Florida for Jake Eder. A 6'4" lefty committed to Vanderbilt, Eder's ceiling is as high as any on this list, but he comes with a lot of risk. He sits in the low 90's now, but he struggles to repeat his mechanics even from pitch to pitch and will need significant coaching.

Tier III (Perez, Marinan, Van Eyk, Drohan)
Joe Perez, of national powerhouse Archbishop McCarthy, only came to pitching recently and is understandably raw. Combine that with the fact that he's just three days older than his crosstown rival, Mark Vientos, and he gets a lot of benefits of the doubt. His fastball can already run into the mid to upper 90's, and his cutter/slider is coming alone nicely as well. He has a high ceiling as a #2 starter or closer, but he went down with Tommy John surgery at the end of the spring and carries a huge amount of risk. He also may be a tough sign, as he has a very strong commitment to Miami. James Marinan is a similar pitcher to Perez in that he lives on his fastball, which out of nowhere is suddenly in the mid 90's, and he has a classic pitcher's frame at 6'5". Also like Perez, he is committed to Miami, and his success will ride on his ability to develop his secondaries. C.J. Van Eyk, one of only two Tampa-area players on this list (the other being Tommy Mace in the "others" section), has the stuff and overall pitchability to get top 50 consideration, but his injury uncertainty drops him out of the top 100 for most. The 6'2" righty throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, controls it well enough, and has arguably the best curveball in the state. However, he was shut down halfway through the spring and has not returned, raising medical question marks. Lastly, Shane Drohan is the only pitcher who can challenge Van Eyk's curveball, but unlike Van Eyk, the lefty Drohan's velocity sits more in the upper 80's. With a similar 6'2" frame to Van Eyk, he should hope to add velocity, but overall his combination of floor and ceiling is pretty mediocre.