Reviewing the Detroit Tigers Farm System

The Tigers' farm system is much improved over the past few years, going from a nice collection of arms and a couple bats to a balanced system with enough of both. While the system is still fairly pitching-heavy considering the Tigers well-known preference of drafting pitchers, they have added quite a few bats via trade recently such as Daz Cameron, Jake Rogers, Willi Castro, Dawel Lugo, and breakout star Isaac Paredes. Back on the pitching side, this draft strategy has worked well for them because their first round picks in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018, all right handed pitchers, are arguably the four best prospects in the system. In 2014, they drafted outfielder Derek Hill, who is not quite a bust yet but who is looking like he may never hit enough to reach the majors.

Affiliates: AAA Toledo Mud Hens, AA Erie Seawolves, High A Lakeland Flying Tigers, Class A West Michigan Whitecaps, Short Season Connecticut Tigers, complex level GCL and DSL Tigers

High Drafted Arms: RHP Beau Burrows, RHP Matt Manning, RHP Alex Faedo, RHP Casey Mize, and RHP Kyle Funkhouser
Each of the Tigers' last four first round picks have been right handed pitchers, and those four are now the core of the farm system. In 2015, Detroit grabbed now-22 year old Beau Burrows out of Weatherford High School in Texas with the 22nd overall pick, and he just posted a 4.10 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 127/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 134 innings at AA Erie. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a full assortment with a curve, a slider, and a changeup, which he commands well enough to give him an overall projection as a workhorse #3 or #4 starter. Sharpening his command a little bit further will ensure that he ends up a useful mid-rotation arm, though at present it looks unlikely that he ends up as anything less than a #5 starter. 20 year old Matt Manning was the Tigers' first round pick (ninth overall) out of a Sacramento high school in 2016 and he has been just as good as advertised. In 2018, he posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 154/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117.2 innings at Class A West Michigan, High A Lakeland, and Erie, handling both promotions easily. He throws in the low to mid 90's with a very loose arm and adds a very good curveball, one which has enabled him to put up strikeouts in bunches. His command is really the only thing that needs to come along, but his mechanics are improving as he grows into his skinny 6'6" frame and with his athleticism, I think he ends up with above average command in the end. He has ace upside, but like any other 20 year old prospect, he'll have to stay healthy and continue to make progress with his delivery in order to reach it. In 2017, the Tigers' first round pick (18th overall) was now-23 year old Alex Faedo from the University of Florida, and Faedo put up a solid first pro season by posting a 4.02 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 110/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at Lakeland and Erie. The big 6'5" righty throws in the low to mid 90's and adds an excellent slider and a good changeup, but his command is just inconsistent enough to keep him from being considered an elite prospect. With no improvement in his start to start command, he looks like a #4 starter, but he has chance to be a very good mid-rotation guy, possibly even a #2, if he can bring it all together. He'll require more minor league seasoning in 2019 but look for Faedo to be knocking on the door when it comes to September call-ups. Most recently, the Tigers took 21 year old Casey Mize with the first overall pick in the 2018 draft out of Auburn, and Mize posted a 3.95 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 14/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.2 innings between complex ball and Lakeland in his debut. The 6'3" righty is already close to major league ready, bringing a mid 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a devastating splitter to the table and commanding it all with ease. His combination of stuff and command could work in the major leagues today, the only reason he isn't going straight to the majors is that he just needs to see professional hitters and learn how to handle them first, which shouldn't be a problem. The only knock on Mize comes from a durability standpoint, as he was shut down at the end of his freshman and sophomore seasons at Auburn then stumbled a little bit down the stretch in his junior year, but the Tigers might look to smooth out his delivery just a little bit. His delivery isn't high-effort, per se, but he doesn't have the loosest arm action in the world and a few minor tweaks could make Mize an ace who will be in the majors very soon. Lastly, I'll add that 24 year old Kyle Funkhouser, the Tigers' fourth round pick out of Louisville in 2016, has been a big draft find as well. Funkhouser was considered a potential top ten pick at points during the 2015 season, but he slid with an up and down junior season, didn't sign when the Dodgers drafted him 35th overall, then slid to the fourth round in 2016. However, he has turned that slide around in the minors, and in 2018 he posted a 3.96 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 96/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings between Erie and AAA Toledo before a foot injury ended his season in July. He throws in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal with a slider, curveball, and changeup, commanding it all well enough to make it work. Nothing really stands out about his game, but he has already proven himself against AA competition and he'll get another shot at AAA in 2019, after which he could compete as a back-end starter or a long reliever.

Outfielders: OF Christin Stewart, OF Daz Cameron, OF Jacob Robson, OF Dustin Peterson, OF Parker Meadows, and OF Brock Deatherage
Most of the Tigers' best outfield prospects are close to the majors at this point, and with Nicholas Castellanos looking like the only sure-starter out there, it's wide open for some of these guys to seize starting roles in the very near future. 25 year old Christin Stewart, who slashed .267/.375/.417 with a pair of home runs in his 17 game MLB debut in 2018, is arguably the top prospect in this group. He's a power hitter who has clubbed 83 home runs over the past three minor league seasons, and in 2018 he slashed .263/.363/.488 with 25 home runs and a 108/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games, almost all at AAA Toledo. He packs a lot of pop for a six footer, and in 2018, he addressed his biggest offensive weakness and dropped his strikeout rate from 2017's 24.9% to a better 20.7% (excluding ten punchless plate appearances in complex ball) despite moving up from AA to AAA. He kept it up in a small MLB sample, his 13 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances coming out to 18.1%. All of his value will be tied to his bat because he's a mediocre defender in left field, but with his power, high walk rate, and lower strikeout rate, he could open 2019 as the Tigers' starting left fielder and contend for the AL Rookie of the Year Award if somehow Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn't win it. Right behind him on the depth chart is 22 year old Daz Cameron, who came over from Houston in the Justin Verlander trade and slashed .264/.343/.406 with eight home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 137/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and Toledo. Cameron's speed makes him a valuable defender in center field as well as an asset on the bases, but his bat is beginning to come along too. Unlike Stewart, he will always be glove-first, but Cameron has enough feel for the barrel and a patient enough approach to get on base at a good clip, and his wiry strength gives him enough power to where he's not just a contact hitter. The overall offensive package is pretty average and he probably never ends up being an impact hitter in the middle of the lineup, but the good center field defense buys the bat enough slack that he has a good chance of becoming a starting outfielder, if not in 2019 then in 2020. 24 year olds Jacob Robson and Dustin Peterson are more likely to end up fourth outfielders, with Robson having slashed .295/.376/.440 with 11 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 140/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Erie and Toledo and Peterson having slashed .268/.324/.406 with 11 home runs and a 96/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at the Braves' AAA affiliate in Gwinnett. Robson is a more complete player and therefore the better prospect, showing a little bit of everything but no standout tool aside from his speed. Not known for his power, his 44 extra base hits and .440 slugging percentage were a surprise in 2018, but the 5'10", 175 pounder strikes out enough to where he probably won't get to his power as much in the majors. Peterson, meanwhile, has more natural power and is more likely to get to it in the majors, but he has been inconsistent and even at his best, his power plays closer to average, and unlike Robson he doesn't have that speed to fall back on. Peterson and Robson could compliment each other nicely on the Detroit bench if there is room for both. Down lower in the minors, 19 year old Parker Meadows, the younger brother of now-Rays outfielder Austin Meadows, was the Tigers' second round pick (44th overall) in 2018 and slashed a nice .290/.377/.473 with four home runs and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in complex ball and with short season Connecticut. Standing at 6'5", the skinny outfielder's glove is presently ahead of his bat, as he moves well for such a tall kid and has a good arm. He's more about projection at the plate, as his long (too long if you ask some) swing has plenty of bat speed and loft, combining with his height to give him the chance for really big power down the road. That long swing, as well as some difficulty with pitch recognition, causes him to swing and miss a fair amount, but pro coaching and refinement could help him click at the plate and shoot him to the top of the Tigers' prospect rankings in the future. For now, consider him a long-term project who could turn into a speedier Christin Stewart if it works out. Lastly, 23 year old Brock Deatherage was a tenth round pick out of NC State in 2018, but he quickly made himself known by slashing .326/.385/.504 with seven home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 64/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games between complex ball, Class A West Michigan, and Lakeland. A streaky hitter in college, I saw him play during his senior season and his swing immediately stuck out to me. Like Meadows, he has a very long swing, but the strength and whip in his wrists helps him generate more power than you'd expect for a skinny, speedy, 6'1" kid. The length in his swing, as well as so-so plate discipline, also caused his streakiness in college, but he proved himself quickly in A ball and pro coaching could make him a steal in the tenth round. I'm a Deatherage fan and he might no longer be a sleeper prospect after the 2019 season.

Infielders and Catchers: 3B Isaac Paredes, SS Willi Castro, IF Dawel Lugo, 2B Kody Clemens, and C Jake Rogers
The Tigers aren't very deep when it comes to infield prospects, but the short list includes their best position-playing prospect in Isaac Paredes and unlike many teams, they actually have a viable catching prospect in Jake Rogers. 19 year old Isaac Paredes has not gotten nearly the recognition he deserves when it comes to top prospect discussions around the league, and he alone will likely make the Justin Wilson/Alex Avila trade with the Cubs look like a robbery. The teenager slashed .278/.359/.456 with 15 home runs and a 76/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Lakeland and AA Erie, looking even better after his promotion and showing a wide range of skills against much older competition. He is growing into some moderate power, makes ready contact, and has a very advanced approach at the plate, giving him a very high floor and the potential to become a top of the lineup bat. Defensively, he has more question marks with a fringe-average glove and a good arm, so he likely moves off of shortstop and ends up at second or third base in the long run. He has the bat to profile at either, and because he turns just 20 years old during spring training, he has plenty of time to make further adjustments and become an impact hitter. 21 year old Willi Castro is over from Cleveland in the Leonys Martin trade and slashed .264/.315/.392 with nine home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 114/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA Akron/Erie and AAA Toledo. He has been improving on both sides of the ball as he has moved through the minors, and he now projects as an average all-around player with contact ability, a little bit of power, some speed, and decent defense at shortstop. Overall that gives him more of a utility projection, though a few tweaks to his approach (he reached AAA at just 21) and a little bit of luck could help him become a starting shortstop in the near future, albeit not one who will hit in the middle of the lineup. 24 year old Dawel Lugo, who was a part of the Cliff Pennington trade in 2015 and the J.D. Martinez deal of 2017, has a very light bat but is in the right place at the right time to try to compete for a starting spot in Detroit. This year he slashed .269/.283/.350 with three home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 66/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Toledo, then hit .213/.267/.309 in 27 major league games. On most teams, Lugo would be more of a fringe-prospect, but the Tigers are shallow enough in the infield that he has a shot there and could use his solid feel for the barrel to get major league playing time. Defensively, he has a good arm but will probably split time between second and third base, but he'll have to get more patient at the plate if he wants to remain in the major leagues. Down low in the minors, 22 year old Kody Clemens (son of Roger) was a third round pick (79th overall) out of Texas this year, following up a huge redshirt junior season for the Longhorns (24 HR, .351/.444/.726) with a strong pro debut by slashing .288/.365/.450 with five home runs and a 39/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games at Class A West Michigan and High A Lakeland. He has power but many, myself included, questioned his ability to get to it consistently in pro ball. He answered that question at least as far as Class A goes (.302/.387/.477), but the real test will be in the higher levels as his long swing may lead to high strikeout totals. Defensively, he's just okay at second base, so the bat will have to carry him. If he continues to produce like he did in college and in Class A, then that should be no problem. Lastly, 23 year old Jake Rogers came over to Detroit in the Justin Verlander trade then slashed .219/.305/.412 with 17 home runs and a 112/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at Erie. This was a step back from his 2017 numbers (.261/.350/.467 in A ball), but his bat isn't what makes him a big prospect. Rogers fantastic defensive catcher, one who can block anything and whose cannon arm makes potential base stealers very cautious. Because his glove is so good at a premium position and could likely win Gold Gloves at the major league level, all he has to do is hit a little bit in order to get to the majors. While the bat is a little bit more of a question mark now than it was last year, he still showed some power, and if he can get to it enough to hit 15 home runs per season in the majors, he should be able to be a major league starting catcher.

Other Pitchers: RHP Franklin Perez, RHP Logan Shore, LHP Matt Hall, LHP Gregory Soto, RHP Grayson Long, and RHP Bryan Garcia
While the four straight first round picks are truly the core of the farm system, the Tigers have plenty of other good pitchers, too. 20 year old Franklin Perez is easily the best prospect in the group, though injuries limited him to seven starts in 2018 and he posted a 6.52 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 14/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 innings at High A Lakeland and complex ball rehab. While he didn't get a chance to prove anything on the field in 2018 after being traded to the Tigers in the 2017 Justin Verlander trade, the raw talent is very exciting. The 6'3" righty throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which are weapons and all of which he commands very well for someone his age. Having not gotten the chance to make any progress in 2018, he's not a guaranteed starter down the road, but he has top of the rotation potential and he'll spend all of 2019 at 20 years old. 24 year old Logan Shore came over to the Tigers in the Mike Fiers trade, though he never pitched for a Tigers affiliate in 2018 after putting up a 4.45 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings at High A and AA for the A's. Shore was actually the Florida Gators' ace ahead of A's sixth overall pick A.J. Puk in 2016, though unlike Puk, he's more about pitchability over stuff. The 6'2" righty throws in the low 90's and adds a great changeup and a mediocre slider, though he is able to succeed because he mixes his pitches well and locates them even more effectively. He likely never ends up more than a #4 or #5 starter, but he has a good shot at cracking a major league rotation or at the very least becoming an effective long reliever. 25 year old Matt Hall is an older prospect, but he had an outstanding season in the upper minors this year by going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 135/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Erie and AAA Toledo. That was an extension of the success he's had throughout his minor league career, as the six foot lefty is now 28-11 with a 2.48 ERA over nearly 100 minor league appearances. He only throws about 90 and isn't a control artist like Shore, but his great curveball enables everything else to play up and has carried him all the way to the majors, though he was shelled for 16 runs (13 earned) over just eight innings in his short stint with the Tigers. Presently, he's likely more of a long relief candidate than a rotation guy, but if can improve his command a little bit, he could stick as a back-end starter. 23 year old Gregory Soto is another promising arm, having posted a 4.45 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and a 115/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings at Lakeland. However, we'll have to wait a little bit to see him in 2019 as he'll miss the first 20 games of the season after being suspended for "conduct detrimental or prejudicial to baseball." He only throws in the low 90's but gets enough movement on his fastball that hitters have a tough time squaring it up, though the rest of his game needs work. His curveball and changeup are nothing special and he struggles with command, but the Tigers like his live arm and hope they can help his stuff tick up. I'm less enamored with him and I think he ends up a reliever, but he's a breakout candidate if he can learn some command. 24 year old Grayson Long and 23 year old Bryan Garcia both missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery, so both will definitely come into 2019 with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. Long is a 6'5" righty out of Texas A&M who came over from the Angels in the Justin Upton trade, coming off a 2017 where he had a 3.01 ERA and a 128/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at High A and AA. Meanwhile, Garcia is a 6'1" right handed reliever out of the University of Miami who posted a 2.13 ERA and a 78/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings across four levels in 2017. Long will be 25 in May, but he was close to the major league ready when he went down with the surgery and should be able to compete for a back-end rotation spot in the near future. Garcia, meanwhile, is a hard throwing fastball/slider guy who was also close to major league ready, and he should be in the bullpen mix pretty soon after he's healthy. While Long looks like a back-end starter, Garcia has the upside of a late-inning reliever.