Blue Jays Get: RHP Ken Giles (0-2, 4.99 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 31/3 K/BB, Age 27)
RHP David Paulino (0-0, 4.67 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33/6 K/BB at GCL and AAA, Age 24)
RHP Hector Perez (3-4, 3.73 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 101/48 K/BB at High A and AA, Age 22)
The Blue Jays and Astros swapped two of the game's better relievers, and I have to say I think the Blue Jays come out on top of this one. Osuna is more consistent than Giles, but when he's at his best, Giles can be just as good, and unlike Osuna, he does not have a domestic abuse suspension on his record. With the two minor league arms coming along with Giles, it's hard to see the Jays as anything but clear winners here.
New Astros relief ace Roberto Osuna is a controversial player, and for good reason. Back in May, he was suspended 75 games for domestic violence, and his court date is set for Wednesday. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow stated that the front office believes he "...is remorseful, has willfully complied with all consequences related to his past behavior, has proactively engaged in counseling, and will fully comply with our zero tolerance policy related to abuse of any kind..." From the outside, it's tough to say whether the Astros truly believe Osuna has grown from the incident or whether they're just releasing the statement to cover themselves, so I'll let you make of it what you want to. On to baseball analysis: when he's on the field, Osuna is as good a reliever as anybody in the game, save for maybe Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel. He broke into the majors at just 20 years old in 2015 as the first player ever born in 1995, immediately contributing with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over 68 appearances, striking out 75 and walking just 16 in 69.2 innings. His numbers were very similar in 2016, and while his ERA jumped to 3.38 in 2017, he put up a career-best 83/9 strikeout to walk ratio (33.3% to 3.6%) in 64 innings. In 15 appearances before his suspension this year, he had a 2.93 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 13/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings, i.e. more of the same. What sets Osuna apart from other elite relievers is his consistency, and that is something the Astros have not gotten from their bullpen. Along with newly acquired Ryan Pressly, he'll hope to jump start the bullpen, which also includes Chris Devenski, Tony Sipp, Will Harris, Joe Smith, and Hector Rondon as big names. He's under team control for 2018, 2019, and 2020, so it's not just a rental. For his career, the Mexico native has a 2.87 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 253/40 strikeout to walk ratio (29% to 4.6%) over 223 innings.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays did a fantastic job here, simultaneously ridding themselves of a domestic abuser and picking up a nearly as good major league arm plus two prospects. Ken Giles, like Osuna, is under team control for 2018, 2019, and 2020, and when he's at his best, he's as good. Back in 2015, he posted a 1.80 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 69 appearances for the Astros, striking out 87 and walking 25 in 70 innings. In 2017, he had a 2.30 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an 83/21 strikeout to walk ratio (33.6% to 8.5%) in 62.2 innings. However, those were the peaks, and in 2016, his ERA sat at 4.11 (though 102 strikeouts put his K rate at 35.7%), and this year, he has been inconsistent enough to earn a demotion to AAA Fresno. Through 34 appearances with the Astros, he has a 4.99 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 31/3 strikeout to walk ratio (24% to 2.3%) over 30.2 innings, the uptick in earned runs coming from increased hittability. Though his strikeouts are down a little, it's nice to see the low walk rate as well, and hopefully the BABIP gods (his is .366 this year) will work more in his favor in Toronto with Kevin Pillar out there catching all those fly balls. For his career, the Albuquerque native has a 2.72 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 367/85 strikeout to walk ratio (32.6% to 7.5%) over 274.2 innings. David Paulino is very well known to prospect enthusiasts at this point, pushing his way to being ranked the 38th best prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2017 season by my favorite prospect evaluator, John Sickels at Minor League Ball. However, his stock tumbled that year as he pitched in just nine professional games (three at AAA Fresno, six in the majors), missing much of the season to a PED suspension and then ending his season early with elbow surgery. He missed much of this season recovering from that surgery but has managed to pitch in just seven games, with three coming in rehab work in the Gulf Coast League and four coming with AAA Fresno (5.50 ERA, 23/5 K/BB in 18 innings). The 6'7" right hander has starter quality stuff and is talented enough to profile near the top of a major league rotation, but the multitude of injuries he has suffered throughout his career make it look more and more likely he'll have to switch to the bullpen in order to stay healthy. He's 24 and in AAA, so he's just about major league ready and just needs to prove he can stay on the mound. In nine career MLB games (seven starts) from 2016-2017, the Dominican is 2-1 with a 6.25 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 36/10 strikeout to walk ratio (22.9% to 6.4%) over 36 innings. Lastly, Hector Perez has a lower ceiling but is a much safer bet than Paulino. The 6'3" righty has been brought along slowly in the Astros organization but he's pitching as well as ever this year. Starting in High A Buies Creek, he went 3-3 with a 3.84 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an 83/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 72.2 innings, showing great stuff but the need for better command. Recently promoted to AA Corpus Christi, he hasn't missed a beat, posting a 3.24 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.2 innings. At every level, his command problems look like they will finally catch up to him with his next promotion, but so far they haven't and now that he's in AA, his consistent performance makes him look like he could be a fine #3 or #4 starter with the possibility for more. He just turned 22 in June.
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