At this point, I would put about six names firmly in the mix - a quartet of SEC stars and a pair of high school outfielders. Of course, things can and will change between now and July, but if the draft were today, I would give it a ~90% shot that the pick is one of these six names. There's always the chance they could go under slot and save money to spend later, but given the fact that they won't be able to pick higher than tenth next season, plus their history of usually paying at least full slot in the first round, I doubt it. Let's take a look at those six names.
Number next to every player indicates their rank on my most recent draft board update.
OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State (#1)
Dylan Crews entered the season as more or less the top prospect in the class, and he's only cemented it so far this spring by slashing .510/.645/.882 through 31 games (yes, you read that right). It will be very, very difficult for the Pirates to pass up his generational bat with the first overall pick, but if they do, the Nationals should be all over him. Crews hits the ball harder than anybody in college baseball, spraying scorching line drives around the the field with incredible consistency, giving him potential 70 grade power in pro ball. Additionally, he's taken a step forward this spring as a pure hitter, controlling the strike zone with a professional approach and rarely missing on pitches in the zone. On the rare occasions in which he does, he makes great adjustments throughout his at bats and won't get fooled twice, which keeps the strikeouts way down. He hammers velocity, recognizes and waits back on offspeed, and is more or less impossible to get out. While his bat stands out more than his glove, he's a solid defender that has shown well in center field this spring and would fit well in a corner with that deep crop of young outfielders the Nationals possess. He should fly through the minors and could be in Washington by the end of the 2024 season with the potential for 30+ home runs annually and .400+ on-base percentages.
Dylan Crews entered the season as more or less the top prospect in the class, and he's only cemented it so far this spring by slashing .510/.645/.882 through 31 games (yes, you read that right). It will be very, very difficult for the Pirates to pass up his generational bat with the first overall pick, but if they do, the Nationals should be all over him. Crews hits the ball harder than anybody in college baseball, spraying scorching line drives around the the field with incredible consistency, giving him potential 70 grade power in pro ball. Additionally, he's taken a step forward this spring as a pure hitter, controlling the strike zone with a professional approach and rarely missing on pitches in the zone. On the rare occasions in which he does, he makes great adjustments throughout his at bats and won't get fooled twice, which keeps the strikeouts way down. He hammers velocity, recognizes and waits back on offspeed, and is more or less impossible to get out. While his bat stands out more than his glove, he's a solid defender that has shown well in center field this spring and would fit well in a corner with that deep crop of young outfielders the Nationals possess. He should fly through the minors and could be in Washington by the end of the 2024 season with the potential for 30+ home runs annually and .400+ on-base percentages.
OF Wyatt Langford, Florida (#2)
While they're built differently as athletes and get to their production in different ways, the end result for Wyatt Langford is starkly similar to Crews and would make for a great consolation prize if the Pirates do indeed nab the LSU outfielder. After barely playing as a freshman, he has torn up the SEC over the past two seasons with huge numbers and shows no sign of slowing down now that he's back from a lower body injury that cost him a couple weeks in March. Like Crews, Langford shows plus-plus raw power from the right side and taps it consistently in games, though Crews gets to his peak exit velocities a little more frequently. Which of course is no knock on Langford, and more just another example of how elite Crews is. While Crews is whippier and more rotational in the box, Langford's power comes more from pure strength and leverage. Like Crews, he has great feel for the barrel and controls his at bats extremely well, rarely chasing and forcing pitchers to come to him. It's a plus hit tool that could help him tap 30+ home runs annually while getting on base at a high clip, hitting in the middle of the order. He also has a similar defensive profile to Crews, sliding over to center field this year now that the elite Jud Fabian is gone to the Orioles' system. He's a surprisingly strong runner for his size and might have a better shot to stick in center than Crews, though Crews has a better arm and would provide more value in a corner.
While they're built differently as athletes and get to their production in different ways, the end result for Wyatt Langford is starkly similar to Crews and would make for a great consolation prize if the Pirates do indeed nab the LSU outfielder. After barely playing as a freshman, he has torn up the SEC over the past two seasons with huge numbers and shows no sign of slowing down now that he's back from a lower body injury that cost him a couple weeks in March. Like Crews, Langford shows plus-plus raw power from the right side and taps it consistently in games, though Crews gets to his peak exit velocities a little more frequently. Which of course is no knock on Langford, and more just another example of how elite Crews is. While Crews is whippier and more rotational in the box, Langford's power comes more from pure strength and leverage. Like Crews, he has great feel for the barrel and controls his at bats extremely well, rarely chasing and forcing pitchers to come to him. It's a plus hit tool that could help him tap 30+ home runs annually while getting on base at a high clip, hitting in the middle of the order. He also has a similar defensive profile to Crews, sliding over to center field this year now that the elite Jud Fabian is gone to the Orioles' system. He's a surprisingly strong runner for his size and might have a better shot to stick in center than Crews, though Crews has a better arm and would provide more value in a corner.
RHP Paul Skenes, Louisiana State (#4)
At this point, Paul Skenes feels like the most likely pick here as an elite, safe bet, high ceiling college arm with a traditional profile. He has consistently gotten better and better and better and now looks like a potential generational talent on the mound. In fact, if pitchers weren't so inherently risky nowadays, I would have him as the #2 prospect on this list. A transfer from Air Force, he has turned himself into a monster on the mound for LSU and through eight starts he has a 1.14 ERA and a 91/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.1 innings, good for a 52.9% strikeout rate. To put that in perspective, the highest strikeout rate of any college pitcher taken in the first round last year was Cooper Hjerpe's 39.6% - and his 161 strikeouts led all of Division I. He does it with a fastball that now sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 102, and he can run it or let it ride depending on the situation but usually opts for the former. Skenes' slider has taken a massive step forward this season as well, adding significant sweep while maintaining its hard upper 80's velocity. It's a pitch that could strike out major league hitters today. This spring, he's also shown feel to work it into more of a power curve with short, vertical bite. His changeup has long been a star pitch as well and profiles as plus with great fading action, but he's gone more to the slider this spring because, well, nobody can hit it no matter how much he throws it. With a big, durable frame, above average command, and that service academy work ethic, he seems like as safe a bet as you can get from a pitcher. I would have a really, really hard time seeing Mike Rizzo pass on Paul Skenes if he's available at the second overall pick.
At this point, Paul Skenes feels like the most likely pick here as an elite, safe bet, high ceiling college arm with a traditional profile. He has consistently gotten better and better and better and now looks like a potential generational talent on the mound. In fact, if pitchers weren't so inherently risky nowadays, I would have him as the #2 prospect on this list. A transfer from Air Force, he has turned himself into a monster on the mound for LSU and through eight starts he has a 1.14 ERA and a 91/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.1 innings, good for a 52.9% strikeout rate. To put that in perspective, the highest strikeout rate of any college pitcher taken in the first round last year was Cooper Hjerpe's 39.6% - and his 161 strikeouts led all of Division I. He does it with a fastball that now sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 102, and he can run it or let it ride depending on the situation but usually opts for the former. Skenes' slider has taken a massive step forward this season as well, adding significant sweep while maintaining its hard upper 80's velocity. It's a pitch that could strike out major league hitters today. This spring, he's also shown feel to work it into more of a power curve with short, vertical bite. His changeup has long been a star pitch as well and profiles as plus with great fading action, but he's gone more to the slider this spring because, well, nobody can hit it no matter how much he throws it. With a big, durable frame, above average command, and that service academy work ethic, he seems like as safe a bet as you can get from a pitcher. I would have a really, really hard time seeing Mike Rizzo pass on Paul Skenes if he's available at the second overall pick.
RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee (#5)
Paul Skenes has taken a massive step forward this spring. Crews and Langford also look like better hitters than they were a year ago, and that's saying something considering the kind of 2022 seasons they had. Meanwhile, Chase Dollander is the only player in this quartet to take a step backwards this season, but he remains an elite prospect. After posting a 2.39 ERA and a 4.2% walk rate last year, he's up to a a 4.19 ERA and a 7.7% walk rate this year, while his strikeout rate has held steady around 35%. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and runs it up to 98, and while last year it showed explosive riding action that made it a plus-plus pitch, it has played more as straight plus this spring with moderate riding life. He still snaps off a nasty, plus slider with hard sweeping action, while also flipping in a more traditional curveball and changeup. He's a very good athlete on the mound that gets great extension to help his pitches play up further, with above average command to both sides of the plate even as he's taken a slight step backwards in that regard. It's still a profile with four average or better pitches, two of which are plus, and above average command from an athletic, durable frame, with plenty of upside especially if he recaptures his 2022 magic. He has every bit as much of a chance to be an ace as Paul Skenes, with potentially a little more variance in the profile. At this point, he's trending in the wrong direction and Mike Rizzo probably prefers Skenes at this point at second overall, but if he gets hot down the stretch, he'll certainly be in play.
Paul Skenes has taken a massive step forward this spring. Crews and Langford also look like better hitters than they were a year ago, and that's saying something considering the kind of 2022 seasons they had. Meanwhile, Chase Dollander is the only player in this quartet to take a step backwards this season, but he remains an elite prospect. After posting a 2.39 ERA and a 4.2% walk rate last year, he's up to a a 4.19 ERA and a 7.7% walk rate this year, while his strikeout rate has held steady around 35%. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and runs it up to 98, and while last year it showed explosive riding action that made it a plus-plus pitch, it has played more as straight plus this spring with moderate riding life. He still snaps off a nasty, plus slider with hard sweeping action, while also flipping in a more traditional curveball and changeup. He's a very good athlete on the mound that gets great extension to help his pitches play up further, with above average command to both sides of the plate even as he's taken a slight step backwards in that regard. It's still a profile with four average or better pitches, two of which are plus, and above average command from an athletic, durable frame, with plenty of upside especially if he recaptures his 2022 magic. He has every bit as much of a chance to be an ace as Paul Skenes, with potentially a little more variance in the profile. At this point, he's trending in the wrong direction and Mike Rizzo probably prefers Skenes at this point at second overall, but if he gets hot down the stretch, he'll certainly be in play.
OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [TX] (#3)
Playing in colder weather in central Indiana, Max Clark just got going recently, so there's not much to update on since the preseason writeup. He's still a potential five tool player with an extremely projectable frame and the ability to impact the game in a wide variety of ways. Previously more of a line drive, gap to gap hitter that let his power come naturally, he is showing a little bit more loft in his swing this spring that could help him tap additional power as he grows into it. And he'll certainly grow into it, with a very projectable 6'1" frame and natural leverage in his left handed swing. Given his prodigious hit tool, which has him taking great at bats against high level pitching, recognizing spin, and using the whole field with ease, I don't think this added loft will cause any level of concerning swing and miss. Looking at current Nationals outfielders, he's not quite as big as James Wood or Elijah Green and will never have quite as much power, but he's a better pure hitter than both and has the speed to stick in center field. He's a prime candidate to progress naturally and get steadily better as he rises through the system, and he may not require as much patience as the average prep because of how advanced he is right now. I haven't heard his name thrown around as much for the Nationals but I would be thrilled if he was the pick. He's committed to Vanderbilt and will not come cheap.
OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS [NC] (#6)
As with Max Clark, we don't have a huge sample size for Walker Jenkins quite yet but he has been going a little longer in coastal North Carolina. And in the early going, the returns have been very impressive. Impressive enough that the Nationals draft a high school bat in the first round for the third year in a row, and a high school outfielder for the second year in a row? It's tough to say, but it's a good problem to have. Jenkins has more power than Clark and is probably more similar to Wyatt Langford as a prospect, though he has the advantage of batting left handed. It's comfortably plus raw power that he taps in games from a very strong 6'3" frame, a "big league body" as they say, and natural loft and leverage in his left handed swing. He never needs to sell out for home runs, which has helped him grow as a pure hitter as well with a disciplined approach and improving pitch recognition. The pure hit tool is still probably a bit behind that of Langford, Clark, and Dylan Crews, but he's also the youngest player in this set of six and he has had no problem with advanced pitching wherever he has gone. Jenkins has been dinged up by injuries at times in the past, but he's fully healthy now and that shouldn't be an issue. He profiles similar to Crews as a defender, with some speed and a strong arm that will make him an asset in right field. At this point, the Nationals will probably lean on the SEC track record of Crews or Langford if they're going to draft a bat, but Jenkins' combination of youth, physicality, and performance would be tough to pass up if perhaps they wanted to cut a deal. He is committed to North Carolina.
As with Max Clark, we don't have a huge sample size for Walker Jenkins quite yet but he has been going a little longer in coastal North Carolina. And in the early going, the returns have been very impressive. Impressive enough that the Nationals draft a high school bat in the first round for the third year in a row, and a high school outfielder for the second year in a row? It's tough to say, but it's a good problem to have. Jenkins has more power than Clark and is probably more similar to Wyatt Langford as a prospect, though he has the advantage of batting left handed. It's comfortably plus raw power that he taps in games from a very strong 6'3" frame, a "big league body" as they say, and natural loft and leverage in his left handed swing. He never needs to sell out for home runs, which has helped him grow as a pure hitter as well with a disciplined approach and improving pitch recognition. The pure hit tool is still probably a bit behind that of Langford, Clark, and Dylan Crews, but he's also the youngest player in this set of six and he has had no problem with advanced pitching wherever he has gone. Jenkins has been dinged up by injuries at times in the past, but he's fully healthy now and that shouldn't be an issue. He profiles similar to Crews as a defender, with some speed and a strong arm that will make him an asset in right field. At this point, the Nationals will probably lean on the SEC track record of Crews or Langford if they're going to draft a bat, but Jenkins' combination of youth, physicality, and performance would be tough to pass up if perhaps they wanted to cut a deal. He is committed to North Carolina.
So those are the six names I think are most likely to wind up in a curly W come July. I mentioned six other names in the preseason writeup, some of which were in the mix and some of which were long shots anyways, but I don't think any of them are truly in the running at this point. I'm going to sound fairly critical of these names despite their status as elite prospects, but that's because we're looking at them from the perspective of the second overall pick. We get to nitpick and be hyper critical. So let's take a look at those names on the preseason writeup and where they stand from the Nationals' point of view.
SS Jacob Gonzalez, Mississippi (#7, preseason #4)
I've always leaned Dylan Crews for the best college bat in the country, but Jacob Gonzalez certainly wasn't far behind when the season began and I think he had every chance to hit his way into the second overall pick. He certainly hasn't been disappointing, slashing .351/.486/.605 through 31 games this spring, but he hasn't taken that big step forward that we saw from Crews, Langford, and Skenes, either. He still shows off plus raw power in games, especially to the pull side, and he's still controlling the strike zone as well as anybody in the country with a huge 16.9% walk rate and just a 12.2% strikeout rate. And while he'll probably move to third base in pro ball, he still has the advantage of an infield glove while Crews, Langford, Clark, and Jenkins are all outfielders. You don't draft for need, but the Nationals are already very deep in outfielders and infielders are generally more sought after anyways, especially on the left side where Gonzalez projects to stick. It's a great profile that will provide every day big league value for a long time, with All Star upside, but at this point he's a touch less of a complete hitter than the names above him. The power is plus, not plus-plus, and perhaps more importantly, he has a bit of an unorthodox swing in which he sells out to the pull side and tries to yank the ball. I'm perfectly comfortable with that approach because he's a career .322/.437/.568 hitter with just an 11.1% strikeout rate going up against a tough SEC schedule, so he certainly possesses the elite hand eye coordination it takes to pull off an approach like that. It's nitpicky, but at the top of the draft, you would still probably prefer to avoid an unorthodox profile like that, and the Nationals do have the opportunity to do so with some elite prospects in that set of six above.
I've always leaned Dylan Crews for the best college bat in the country, but Jacob Gonzalez certainly wasn't far behind when the season began and I think he had every chance to hit his way into the second overall pick. He certainly hasn't been disappointing, slashing .351/.486/.605 through 31 games this spring, but he hasn't taken that big step forward that we saw from Crews, Langford, and Skenes, either. He still shows off plus raw power in games, especially to the pull side, and he's still controlling the strike zone as well as anybody in the country with a huge 16.9% walk rate and just a 12.2% strikeout rate. And while he'll probably move to third base in pro ball, he still has the advantage of an infield glove while Crews, Langford, Clark, and Jenkins are all outfielders. You don't draft for need, but the Nationals are already very deep in outfielders and infielders are generally more sought after anyways, especially on the left side where Gonzalez projects to stick. It's a great profile that will provide every day big league value for a long time, with All Star upside, but at this point he's a touch less of a complete hitter than the names above him. The power is plus, not plus-plus, and perhaps more importantly, he has a bit of an unorthodox swing in which he sells out to the pull side and tries to yank the ball. I'm perfectly comfortable with that approach because he's a career .322/.437/.568 hitter with just an 11.1% strikeout rate going up against a tough SEC schedule, so he certainly possesses the elite hand eye coordination it takes to pull off an approach like that. It's nitpicky, but at the top of the draft, you would still probably prefer to avoid an unorthodox profile like that, and the Nationals do have the opportunity to do so with some elite prospects in that set of six above.
RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida (#12, preseason #7)
Hurston Waldrep dominated the C-USA last year with Southern Miss, posting a 3.20 ERA and a wicked 140/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings, so his transition to the SEC has been closely watched this year. So far through eight starts, it has been a mixed bag with a 4.60 ERA and a 75/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 innings – a mixed bag with more good than bad, but mixed nonetheless when you're looking with the hyper critical eye of the second overall pick. The stuff is as loud as ever, with a riding fastball that can touch 99 in addition to a hammer curveball, a hard slider, and a plus splitter that has taken a big step forward this spring. However, SEC hitters have proven a bit more selective than C-USA hitters and have made him work harder to get ahead in the count, which he hasn't always done this spring. There are some minor concerns about his ability to locate his secondary offerings so that they can play up to their elite potential, and hitters have been able to jump on his stuff in the zone as he's more control over command in general. Additionally, with an uptempo delivery and an analytically inclined arsenal, he doesn't fit the more traditional mold that Mike Rizzo tends to target. He's more Chase Dollander than Paul Skenes.
Hurston Waldrep dominated the C-USA last year with Southern Miss, posting a 3.20 ERA and a wicked 140/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings, so his transition to the SEC has been closely watched this year. So far through eight starts, it has been a mixed bag with a 4.60 ERA and a 75/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 innings – a mixed bag with more good than bad, but mixed nonetheless when you're looking with the hyper critical eye of the second overall pick. The stuff is as loud as ever, with a riding fastball that can touch 99 in addition to a hammer curveball, a hard slider, and a plus splitter that has taken a big step forward this spring. However, SEC hitters have proven a bit more selective than C-USA hitters and have made him work harder to get ahead in the count, which he hasn't always done this spring. There are some minor concerns about his ability to locate his secondary offerings so that they can play up to their elite potential, and hitters have been able to jump on his stuff in the zone as he's more control over command in general. Additionally, with an uptempo delivery and an analytically inclined arsenal, he doesn't fit the more traditional mold that Mike Rizzo tends to target. He's more Chase Dollander than Paul Skenes.
RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest (#13, preseason #13)
Rhett Lowder hasn't moved at all on my rankings, and that's why he's not in play at #2 overall. Lowder does fit the Rizzo mold a little bit more as a control and command type that thrives by executing on his full arsenal, and he's had a very good season so far with 1.84 ERA and a 58/11 strikeout to walk ratio through 49 innings. He may have been an under slot candidate at #2 had his stuff taken another step forward this spring, but he seems to have settled in as a likely mid-rotation starter down the road, which will play great in the middle of the first round but might not be quite enough to get to #2. Lowder's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with average life, while his above average slider misses plenty of bats and his plus changeup steals the show. It's a really well rounded profile, but there's no reason to take him over Paul Skenes at this point if you're going for that type of pitcher.
Rhett Lowder hasn't moved at all on my rankings, and that's why he's not in play at #2 overall. Lowder does fit the Rizzo mold a little bit more as a control and command type that thrives by executing on his full arsenal, and he's had a very good season so far with 1.84 ERA and a 58/11 strikeout to walk ratio through 49 innings. He may have been an under slot candidate at #2 had his stuff taken another step forward this spring, but he seems to have settled in as a likely mid-rotation starter down the road, which will play great in the middle of the first round but might not be quite enough to get to #2. Lowder's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with average life, while his above average slider misses plenty of bats and his plus changeup steals the show. It's a really well rounded profile, but there's no reason to take him over Paul Skenes at this point if you're going for that type of pitcher.
3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian (#17, preseason #9)
Brayden Taylor came out of the gate red hot this spring, slashing .458/.581/.750 over his first six games against tough competition while showing improved exit velocities. That hot start alone had him trending towards consideration for the Nationals at #2, but unfortunately, he immediately embarked on a prolonged slump that saw his average dip as low as .233 by late March. Taylor has turned it around somewhat in April, and overall his 2023 has probably been a wash to this point. That puts him more in the middle of the first round range than the top, as he's more of an above average hitter with above average power than the plus hitter/plus power you look for up top. With a solid glove that will keep him on the left side of the infield, he looks the part of a long term big leaguer that produces 20+ home runs a year with high on-base percentages, but overall he lacks the franchise-changing upside the Nationals will be looking for.
Brayden Taylor came out of the gate red hot this spring, slashing .458/.581/.750 over his first six games against tough competition while showing improved exit velocities. That hot start alone had him trending towards consideration for the Nationals at #2, but unfortunately, he immediately embarked on a prolonged slump that saw his average dip as low as .233 by late March. Taylor has turned it around somewhat in April, and overall his 2023 has probably been a wash to this point. That puts him more in the middle of the first round range than the top, as he's more of an above average hitter with above average power than the plus hitter/plus power you look for up top. With a solid glove that will keep him on the left side of the infield, he looks the part of a long term big leaguer that produces 20+ home runs a year with high on-base percentages, but overall he lacks the franchise-changing upside the Nationals will be looking for.
3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell HS [FL] (#15, preseason #16)
Despite getting an earlier start than most high school prospects with Florida's weather, Aidan Miller hasn't moved much this spring due to a broken bone in his hand. That probably ends his chances of swinging his way up to #2 overall, depending on his timeline to return. That's unfortunate, because he truly brings one of the best bats in the country with plus power and a consistent track record of tapping it against advanced pitching. Once he irons out some of the moving parts in his swing, he could be an above average pure hitter as well. He's committed to Arkansas and should he choose to go that route, he'll be draft eligible again in 2025 as a sophomore so he has plenty of good options. If he doesn't get a chance to build his stock before the end of the season, there's actually the possibility that he could make it back around to the Nationals at the 40th pick and sign for a massive over slot bonus, though that seems unlikely.
Despite getting an earlier start than most high school prospects with Florida's weather, Aidan Miller hasn't moved much this spring due to a broken bone in his hand. That probably ends his chances of swinging his way up to #2 overall, depending on his timeline to return. That's unfortunate, because he truly brings one of the best bats in the country with plus power and a consistent track record of tapping it against advanced pitching. Once he irons out some of the moving parts in his swing, he could be an above average pure hitter as well. He's committed to Arkansas and should he choose to go that route, he'll be draft eligible again in 2025 as a sophomore so he has plenty of good options. If he doesn't get a chance to build his stock before the end of the season, there's actually the possibility that he could make it back around to the Nationals at the 40th pick and sign for a massive over slot bonus, though that seems unlikely.
SS Roch Cholowsky, Hamilton HS [AZ] (#19, preseason #20)
I put Roch Cholowsky down as my dark horse candidate here, thinking he was the type of player that could follow a Jackson Holliday-like path to the top of the draft. Cholowsky has shown well this spring, but anything Holliday-esque was going to be a long shot anyways. I still very much believe a breakout will come in the near future as he develops physically, but that may not happen until he gets a year or two into his pro career or makes it to campus at UCLA. In fact, similar to Miller, he could profile for the Nationals' second round pick and probably has a better chance to get there.
I put Roch Cholowsky down as my dark horse candidate here, thinking he was the type of player that could follow a Jackson Holliday-like path to the top of the draft. Cholowsky has shown well this spring, but anything Holliday-esque was going to be a long shot anyways. I still very much believe a breakout will come in the near future as he develops physically, but that may not happen until he gets a year or two into his pro career or makes it to campus at UCLA. In fact, similar to Miller, he could profile for the Nationals' second round pick and probably has a better chance to get there.
Now that we have the first pick covered, let's take a look at some potential targets at pick #40. This would be a shot in the dark on draft day and it's certainly one here a few months out, but it's still fun to think about some options. Last year, the Nationals picked up a traditional, safe bet college left hander in Jake Bennett with the 45th overall pick, in 2021 it was an advanced prep outfielder in Daylen Lile at the 47th pick, and in 2020 they took power armed college right hander Cole Henry and signed him to a well above slot bonus at #55 overall.
With slot value for the #2 overall pick clocking in at just under $9 million this year and the #40 slot value coming out to over $2.1 million, the Nationals will have a lot of money to play with and could go well above slot value here. I imagine most of the non-Crews options will command somewhere in the $6.5 to $8 million range at pick #2, giving the Nationals $3 million or more for this pick if that's where they choose to deploy the extra cash. So first, let's look at some over slot options. Washington has steered clear of high school pitchers for the most part since the Mason Denaburg debacle so lets focus on some prep bats. Note, these are not *my* targets for the second round pick, but players I think the Nationals could target.
3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell HS [FL] (#15)
Hey, look who it is again. I see it as unlikely that Aidan Miller reaches this spot in the draft under any circumstances, but it is possible if the broken bone in his hand lingers at all and keeps him from showcasing his best ability before the draft. Even then, it would take a very large over slot bonus to deter him from an Arkansas commitment, but the Nationals will likely have the money to do so and may be able to float him down the board if they choose to. Like I mentioned before, we're talking about a very well-rounded hitter with plus power from the right side and an advanced approach at the plate that enables him to tap it consistently in games. A third baseman for now, he has a chance to stick there with a plus arm but he will need to work to maintain his quickness in the dirt if he wants to avoid a move to first base. Landing Miller in the second round would probably be the best-case scenario for the Nationals.
Hey, look who it is again. I see it as unlikely that Aidan Miller reaches this spot in the draft under any circumstances, but it is possible if the broken bone in his hand lingers at all and keeps him from showcasing his best ability before the draft. Even then, it would take a very large over slot bonus to deter him from an Arkansas commitment, but the Nationals will likely have the money to do so and may be able to float him down the board if they choose to. Like I mentioned before, we're talking about a very well-rounded hitter with plus power from the right side and an advanced approach at the plate that enables him to tap it consistently in games. A third baseman for now, he has a chance to stick there with a plus arm but he will need to work to maintain his quickness in the dirt if he wants to avoid a move to first base. Landing Miller in the second round would probably be the best-case scenario for the Nationals.
OF Jonny Farmelo, Westfield HS [VA] (#38)
Jonny Farmelo is a local kid that plays at Westfield High School in Chantilly, which is always a bonus in my eyes. Similar to Brenner Cox a year ago, Farmelo brings a polished all-around game to the table and has the chance to grow into a real impact player. A powder keg of athleticism at 6'2", he uses a quick left handed swing to lash at the ball and drive line drives around the field, producing sneaky power that should show up in games more often as he learns to tap it. He's a very advanced hitter that recognizes offspeed stuff and should transition smoothly to the minors, though the next step will be improving the adjustability in his swing so that he can make more consistent contact in the zone. He seems close to putting it all together and the Nationals could be the team to swoop in and sign him away from a UVA commitment, where he could emerge a first round pick.
Jonny Farmelo is a local kid that plays at Westfield High School in Chantilly, which is always a bonus in my eyes. Similar to Brenner Cox a year ago, Farmelo brings a polished all-around game to the table and has the chance to grow into a real impact player. A powder keg of athleticism at 6'2", he uses a quick left handed swing to lash at the ball and drive line drives around the field, producing sneaky power that should show up in games more often as he learns to tap it. He's a very advanced hitter that recognizes offspeed stuff and should transition smoothly to the minors, though the next step will be improving the adjustability in his swing so that he can make more consistent contact in the zone. He seems close to putting it all together and the Nationals could be the team to swoop in and sign him away from a UVA commitment, where he could emerge a first round pick.
1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS [VA] (#41)
Bryce Eldridge is working his way up boards and at this point, my #41 ranking is probably too low. Another local kid, he plays at my alma mater only about fifteen miles west of Nationals Park. Eldridge is a two-way player whom I prefer slightly as a hitter at this point, but you'll find plenty of scouts who like his arm better. At the plate, Eldridge is a hulking presence in the box at 6'7" and gets excellent leverage out of that long-limbed frame, really showing the ability to blast hard line drives with consistency, especially to his pull side. He has a chance to grow into plus power as he learns to lift the ball a bit better, and he has become more patient at the plate and shows the potential to be an average pure hitter as well. On the mound, he uses his size to create downhill plane that accentuates the running and sinking life on his low to mid 90's fastball. He adds a solid slider that flashes above average as well as a firm changeup, together creating for a pretty traditional three pitch mix that would fit what the Nationals tend to look for. A great athlete for his size, he has worked to clean up his delivery and his strike throwing has improved considerably, something the Nationals certainly look for. He's committed to Alabama and I would expect him to require a sizable over slot bonus at pick #40, likely higher than Jonny Farmelo.
Bryce Eldridge is working his way up boards and at this point, my #41 ranking is probably too low. Another local kid, he plays at my alma mater only about fifteen miles west of Nationals Park. Eldridge is a two-way player whom I prefer slightly as a hitter at this point, but you'll find plenty of scouts who like his arm better. At the plate, Eldridge is a hulking presence in the box at 6'7" and gets excellent leverage out of that long-limbed frame, really showing the ability to blast hard line drives with consistency, especially to his pull side. He has a chance to grow into plus power as he learns to lift the ball a bit better, and he has become more patient at the plate and shows the potential to be an average pure hitter as well. On the mound, he uses his size to create downhill plane that accentuates the running and sinking life on his low to mid 90's fastball. He adds a solid slider that flashes above average as well as a firm changeup, together creating for a pretty traditional three pitch mix that would fit what the Nationals tend to look for. A great athlete for his size, he has worked to clean up his delivery and his strike throwing has improved considerably, something the Nationals certainly look for. He's committed to Alabama and I would expect him to require a sizable over slot bonus at pick #40, likely higher than Jonny Farmelo.
C/1B Ralphy Velazquez, Huntington Beach HS [CA] (#50)
Ralphy Velazquez checks in at #50 on my list, but like Bryce Eldridge, he's climbing and probably now fits comfortably in the 40's or better. To put it simply, he's about as professional a hitter as you'll find in this class. He's very patient at the plate but won't miss a good pitch if he gets it, and when he does get fooled, he makes adjustments and can easily take back control of the at bat. Velazquez looks to do damage and shows above average pop when he gets into one, but he also has no problem shortening up and putting the ball in play if he needs to. It's a first round bat, but questions about his glove have pushed him more to the second round range so far. He's not a quick twitch athlete and will have to work very hard to stick behind the plate, especially when it comes to blocking. His other option is first base. At this point, though, the bat is becoming undeniable and he could carve out a very nice major league role in an Eric Hosmer type of way, and I'd be happy if the Nationals tried to pull him away from an Arizona State commitment.
Ralphy Velazquez checks in at #50 on my list, but like Bryce Eldridge, he's climbing and probably now fits comfortably in the 40's or better. To put it simply, he's about as professional a hitter as you'll find in this class. He's very patient at the plate but won't miss a good pitch if he gets it, and when he does get fooled, he makes adjustments and can easily take back control of the at bat. Velazquez looks to do damage and shows above average pop when he gets into one, but he also has no problem shortening up and putting the ball in play if he needs to. It's a first round bat, but questions about his glove have pushed him more to the second round range so far. He's not a quick twitch athlete and will have to work very hard to stick behind the plate, especially when it comes to blocking. His other option is first base. At this point, though, the bat is becoming undeniable and he could carve out a very nice major league role in an Eric Hosmer type of way, and I'd be happy if the Nationals tried to pull him away from an Arizona State commitment.
Others
SS Cooper Pratt, Magnolia Heights HS [MS] (#33)
SS Cooper Pratt, Magnolia Heights HS [MS] (#33)
OF Dillon Head, Homewood-Flossmoor HS [IL] (#48)
SS George Lombard, Gulliver HS [FL] (#69)
SS George Lombard, Gulliver HS [FL] (#69)
Lastly, what if the Nationals don't choose to go over slot here? They have targeted polished college arms as well as well-rounded major conference performers in that second to fourth round range in recent years, so let's look at a few that could fit the bill. Again, these are not *my* targets, but players I think the Nationals could target whether I like it or not.
1B Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic (#36)
Nolan Schanuel is off to a monster start to the season, and at this point he might not even make it to the second round despite his defensive limitations. Still, the Nationals like well-rounded college bats and if they perform, they haven't shied away from those farther down the defensive spectrum. Well, if you consider a .482/.618/.964 slash line through 33 games to be "performing," then I'd love to introduce you to Schanuel. He's an ultra-advanced hitter that will have zero trouble making the jump from the C-USA to pro ball, where he'll be completely comfortable stepping in against better and better competition. An elite pure hitter, he is also steadily tacking on more and more power to his game, with sneaky high exit velocities that could have him tapping above average power in pro ball. That power did not show up much with wood in the Cape Cod League last summer, but he's assuaging those concerns this spring. Schanuel should fly through the Nationals' minor league affiliates and could swat 20+ home runs a year with high on-base percentages as an every day first baseman or left fielder.
Nolan Schanuel is off to a monster start to the season, and at this point he might not even make it to the second round despite his defensive limitations. Still, the Nationals like well-rounded college bats and if they perform, they haven't shied away from those farther down the defensive spectrum. Well, if you consider a .482/.618/.964 slash line through 33 games to be "performing," then I'd love to introduce you to Schanuel. He's an ultra-advanced hitter that will have zero trouble making the jump from the C-USA to pro ball, where he'll be completely comfortable stepping in against better and better competition. An elite pure hitter, he is also steadily tacking on more and more power to his game, with sneaky high exit velocities that could have him tapping above average power in pro ball. That power did not show up much with wood in the Cape Cod League last summer, but he's assuaging those concerns this spring. Schanuel should fly through the Nationals' minor league affiliates and could swat 20+ home runs a year with high on-base percentages as an every day first baseman or left fielder.
SS Maui Ahuna, Tennessee (#55)
Maui Ahuna is a bit of a divisive prospect with a streaky bat and a strong track record of hitting, with some outlets putting first round grades on the Hawaiian product and others pushing him closer to the second or third round range. I tend to fall into the latter category, but I still think the Nationals could pull the trigger here. He's an exceptional athlete with plus defense at shortstop, where he projects to stick long term. Ahuna has some pop with great feel for the barrel and the ability to send long drives to all fields, not just the pull side. He can go on a tear and be the best hitter in the lineup for weeks at a time, but his swing can get swoopy and he's prone to chasing offspeed down out of the zone, which also elevates his strikeout rate. If the Nationals go this route, it would mark three years in a row in which they drafted a shortstop with Tennessee ties, after taking last year's starter Cortland Lawson in the fourteenth round and in 2021 drafting Brady House, a Tennessee commit, in the first round.
Maui Ahuna is a bit of a divisive prospect with a streaky bat and a strong track record of hitting, with some outlets putting first round grades on the Hawaiian product and others pushing him closer to the second or third round range. I tend to fall into the latter category, but I still think the Nationals could pull the trigger here. He's an exceptional athlete with plus defense at shortstop, where he projects to stick long term. Ahuna has some pop with great feel for the barrel and the ability to send long drives to all fields, not just the pull side. He can go on a tear and be the best hitter in the lineup for weeks at a time, but his swing can get swoopy and he's prone to chasing offspeed down out of the zone, which also elevates his strikeout rate. If the Nationals go this route, it would mark three years in a row in which they drafted a shortstop with Tennessee ties, after taking last year's starter Cortland Lawson in the fourteenth round and in 2021 drafting Brady House, a Tennessee commit, in the first round.
RHP Tanner Witt, Texas (#45)
Mike Rizzo was known earlier in his tenure for drafting injured pitchers, and while that's not quite his M.O. anymore, he could go back to it here with Texas righty Tanner Witt. Witt is everything Rizzo loves in a pitcher - he's tall, he pounds the strike zone, and has performed on big stages dating back to his prep days. He sits in the low 90's, getting up to 96-97, with steep angle from a high release point and high induced vertical break. His curveball, slider, and changeup all flash above average, and he repeats his simple, clean delivery well with potentially above average command down the line. Sometimes Witt can get hit harder than you'd expect because he lacks deception, but he hasn't yet gotten a chance to prove himself as a junior this year. He missed most of last season with Tommy John surgery and will likely get a chance to throw in front of scouts in the lead up to the draft, similar to Connor Prielipp last year. He has mid-rotation upside.
Mike Rizzo was known earlier in his tenure for drafting injured pitchers, and while that's not quite his M.O. anymore, he could go back to it here with Texas righty Tanner Witt. Witt is everything Rizzo loves in a pitcher - he's tall, he pounds the strike zone, and has performed on big stages dating back to his prep days. He sits in the low 90's, getting up to 96-97, with steep angle from a high release point and high induced vertical break. His curveball, slider, and changeup all flash above average, and he repeats his simple, clean delivery well with potentially above average command down the line. Sometimes Witt can get hit harder than you'd expect because he lacks deception, but he hasn't yet gotten a chance to prove himself as a junior this year. He missed most of last season with Tommy John surgery and will likely get a chance to throw in front of scouts in the lead up to the draft, similar to Connor Prielipp last year. He has mid-rotation upside.
RHP Will Sanders, South Carolina (#49)
Will Sanders, like Maui Ahuna, is a bit of a divisive prospect that I think Rizzo will like. Like Ahuna, he gets first round grades from many publications, but I see him more as a second round talent. His fastball sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96, but it lacks movement so it gets hit hard and is probably his worst pitch. Sanders shines with his secondary stuff, including a slider that flashes plus with late bite and an above average curveball and changeup. Like Witt, he's a lanky pitcher that pounds the strike zone, but lacks deception in his simple delivery. If the Nationals can figure something out with his fastball, which they have a very poor track record of doing but love to try anyways, he has mid-rotation upside.
Will Sanders, like Maui Ahuna, is a bit of a divisive prospect that I think Rizzo will like. Like Ahuna, he gets first round grades from many publications, but I see him more as a second round talent. His fastball sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96, but it lacks movement so it gets hit hard and is probably his worst pitch. Sanders shines with his secondary stuff, including a slider that flashes plus with late bite and an above average curveball and changeup. Like Witt, he's a lanky pitcher that pounds the strike zone, but lacks deception in his simple delivery. If the Nationals can figure something out with his fastball, which they have a very poor track record of doing but love to try anyways, he has mid-rotation upside.
RHP Kiefer Lord, Washington (#60)
Kiefer Lord has been one of the bigger risers of the early spring, pushing his fastball up to 97 at this point with some hop on it. His slider, curveball, and changeup all flash potential but he mainly works off the fastball at this point, something the Nationals probably won't mind too much. He's a great athlete on the mound and pounds the strike zone (are you sensing a theme yet?), with a bit more deception and movement than Tanner Witt and Will Sanders. He ranks behind them because his secondaries are a bit behind, but he's trending hard in the right direction and he actually seems like an arm the Nationals can get right, even from my cynical point of view.
Kiefer Lord has been one of the bigger risers of the early spring, pushing his fastball up to 97 at this point with some hop on it. His slider, curveball, and changeup all flash potential but he mainly works off the fastball at this point, something the Nationals probably won't mind too much. He's a great athlete on the mound and pounds the strike zone (are you sensing a theme yet?), with a bit more deception and movement than Tanner Witt and Will Sanders. He ranks behind them because his secondaries are a bit behind, but he's trending hard in the right direction and he actually seems like an arm the Nationals can get right, even from my cynical point of view.
RHP Brandon Sproat, Florida (#63)
We'll finish off with Brandon Sproat, whom the Mets drafted in the third round last year but couldn't come to terms with on a contract. He'll be nearly 23 when the draft rolls around, but otherwise it's a pretty enticing profile that the Nationals would like. He has a power arm, touching triple digits in short stints and holding mid 90's velocity deep into his starts, albeit with average movement (sensing another theme here?). His best pitch is a plus changeup that can really fool hitters looking for the heat, while his curveball and slider are quality breaking balls as well. Sproat's command has steadily improved and is now average, and his arm strength and athleticism point to a career in the rotation despite a delivery with some effort. As with Sanders, the Nationals would have to figure out something with his fastball, which doesn't miss as many bats as the velocity suggests.
We'll finish off with Brandon Sproat, whom the Mets drafted in the third round last year but couldn't come to terms with on a contract. He'll be nearly 23 when the draft rolls around, but otherwise it's a pretty enticing profile that the Nationals would like. He has a power arm, touching triple digits in short stints and holding mid 90's velocity deep into his starts, albeit with average movement (sensing another theme here?). His best pitch is a plus changeup that can really fool hitters looking for the heat, while his curveball and slider are quality breaking balls as well. Sproat's command has steadily improved and is now average, and his arm strength and athleticism point to a career in the rotation despite a delivery with some effort. As with Sanders, the Nationals would have to figure out something with his fastball, which doesn't miss as many bats as the velocity suggests.
Others:
LHP Grayson Hitt, Alabama (#58)
3B Jake Gelof, Virginia (#64)
UT LuJames Groover, North Carolina State (#66)
UT LuJames Groover, North Carolina State (#66)
RHP Tanner Hall, Southern Miss (#80)
RHP George Klassen, Minnesota (#89)
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