1-19: OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
2-52: RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State
2C-69: OF Isaiah Greene, Corona HS (CA)
3-91: SS Anthony Walters, San Diego State
4-120: C Matthew Dyer, Arizona
5-150: RHP Eric Orze, New Orleans
The Mets were aggressive at the top of the draft and went more conservative later on, and I think the end product was a really nice draft class. I loved each of their first three picks, netting them two speedy Southern California high school outfielders with offensive upside in addition to a recovering TJ arm who has clear first round talent. JT Ginn, the TJ arm, will require a large over slot bonus, so the Mets had to save money later in the draft, signing their third and fifth round picks to a combined $40,000 – adding $964,400 in pool space to reel in Ginn. The Mets pulled in a lot of talent here, especially in those first three picks, and this should give a jolt to their middling farm system. Also, if you live on the North Shore of Long Island, they signed your congressman's son in the undrafted free agent market.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-19: OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS, CA (my rank: 15)
The Mets started off their draft with a bang, picking up probably the most famous name on the high school circuit. Crow-Armstrong, a product of the elite Studio City private school in the Hollywood Hills that once boasted Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in the same rotation at the same time, first emerged onto the draft scene as an underclassman. A lackluster summer in 2019 set his stock back a bit, but he came out of the gate hot in 2020 and started to rebuild. Crow-Armstrong has long been known for his defense, as he's a natural in center field that makes his plus speed play up with great jumps and direct routes to the ball. He'll stick in center field, no doubt, and provide a ton of value there. The bat is a bit more of a question mark, but the production he showed in the shortened 2020 certainly helped. He's a 6'1" left handed hitter with a really loose, contact-oriented swing, but there is some power projection in there and I could see him hitting 20 home runs or more per season at his ceiling. A more realistic expectation might be 15-20, but he also projects for high on-base percentages because he's an advanced hitter who makes very consistent contact. Combine that with plus defense, and you have yourself a heck of a ballplayer. I'm very optimistic on Crow-Armstrong and I think the Mets will be very happy with this pick (as long as they don't trade him to the Mariners to join Jarred Kelenic). He signed away from a Vanderbilt commitment right at slot for $3.36 million and I think he'll be worth every penny. Pre-draft profile here.
2-52: RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (my rank: 23)
There is a good chance the Mets get fantastic value at this spot, even if Ginn does sign over slot. He was actually the 30th overall pick by the Dodgers out of Brandon High School in the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, but he didn't sign and instead headed to Mississippi State. There, his progress has been tremendous. When he got to campus, Ginn was a power-armed freshman who could run his fastball up to 99 with a promising slider, but he had a high effort delivery, a bit of a stocky frame, and was inconsistent with his secondary stuff and command: reliever qualities. However, the progress Ginn made in that freshman season was remarkable, as he leaned out a bit, got more consistent with the slider that is now a plus pitch, and developed a legitimate changeup. Not only that, he smoothed out his delivery a bit, threw more strikes, and had great results for a freshman in the SEC: 8-4, 3.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 105/19 K/BB in 86.1 IP. I liked him as high as the top ten picks earlier in the spring, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and required Tommy John surgery, clouding his status. Still, TJ isn't nearly as scary as it once was, and once he bounces back healthy, I think we have a legitimate impact starting pitcher on our hands, one who could even be an ace. He still has some work to do in getting more consistent with his delivery and hitting spots within the zone, but he's miles ahead of where he was in highs school and should continue to develop in that direction. In the Mets system, he'll join his college teammate and 2019 fourth rounder Jake Mangum. Slot value is $1.4 million at the 52nd pick, but the Mets have nearly $2.6 million left in their bonus pool and I expect him to take most if not all of it. Pre-draft profile here.
2C-69: OF Isaiah Greene, Corona HS, CA (my rank: 50)
More great value for the Mets here at the Zack Wheeler compensation pick, especially since Isaiah Greene signed under slot. Another LA-area high schooler, Greene isn't too, too dissimilar to Pete Crow-Armstrong in that he has a really wide array of ways he can impact the game. The most notable is his plus to plus-plus speed, as he could easily beat the already fast Crow-Armstrong in a foot race and deploys that speed well on both sides of the ball. He's not quite as instinctual a defender as PCA, but he's another true center field type because the instincts are plenty good enough and of course, there's the speed. He shows a really sweet swing from the left side – it's quick and loose, gets some nice loft on there, and consistently stays under control. He makes plenty of hard contact for now, but it's easy to see him growing into average or even slightly above average raw power as he fills out his 6'1" frame. That gives him a peak of perhaps 15-20 home runs per season with plenty of doubles and triples in addition to good on-base percentages, with lots of stolen bases to go with them. I really like the overall package that Greene brings, and if both he makes it along with PCA and the aforementioned Jake Mangum, we might never see a baseball drop in the Citi Field outfield. Greene signed away from a Missouri commitment for $850,000, which was $79,800 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.
3-91: SS Anthony Walters, San Diego State (unranked)
Yet another Los Angeles-area product, Walters bounced around a bit during his college career, starting at Cal before spending a year at Mount San Antonio CC and subsequently transferring to San Diego State. After raking at Mount San Antonio, he was off to a decent start in San Diego, slashing .271/.333/.356 with a home run and an 18/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 16 games in 2020. He's an athletic guy at 6'1", generating some decent power from a line drive right handed swing and good extension. He can be a bit aggressive at the plate at times and doesn't come with the rock-solid plate discipline you tend to see in these money saving picks, so the Mets will have to help him control the strike zone a bit better in pro ball. The good news is he's a glove-first guy who can stick at shortstop, so you can project a utility infield future on him pretty easily. He's kind of an interesting tweener prospect with the bat, not quite a high ceiling type and not quite a high floor type, so providing that value with the glove is really helpful to his profile. As a redshirt junior who will turn 23 over the offseason, Walters didn't have much leverage and signed for just $20,000, which saved $627,300 from the bonus pool.
4-120: C Matthew Dyer, Arizona (unranked)
Dyer grew up in the Phoenix area but started his college career at Oregon, then transferred back to his home state after one season. After sitting out the 2018 season due to transfer rules, he put up a huge 2019 in which he slashed .393/.480/.571 with four home runs and a 28/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, but he priced himself out of the draft to return to Arizona for his redshirt junior year. The results weren't quite the same in 2020, as he slashed just .220/.329/.441 with three home runs and a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games, and he wound up with the Mets in the fourth round. Tall and skinny at a listed 6'4" and 185 pounds, he shows some power generated with his long arms and legs, while a very sound approach at the plate allows him to make consistent contact. It's a pretty balanced offensive profile overall, projecting for maybe 15-20 home runs a year with good on-base percentages at his absolute ceiling, though the key will be continuing to get stronger and fill out that frame. More likely is a super-utility profile in which he provides maybe 5-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, seeing time all over the diamond. The Mets drafted him as a catcher, but he's probably too lanky to stick back there, as he has a good arm but is just so-so when it comes to the finer aspects of catching. He also has experience at second base, third base, and in the outfield, so if he does hit enough to start, he'll probably just end up wherever the Mets need him. Even though he's a redshirt junior, he's relatively young for a fourth year player and only turns 22 in July. Dyer signed for $350,000, which was $128,300 below slot.
5-150: RHP Eric Orze, New Orleans (unranked)
If you're looking for a feel-good story to root for, here it is. Originally from the Chicago area, Orze seems to like the Gulf Coast better and started his career at Northwest Florida State Community College before transferring to the University of New Orleans. He hasn't pitched a whole lot, though, because he's fought and beaten cancer – twice. First testicular, then skin. Now a fifth year senior, he'll turn 23 in August but the right now package is a good one. He started off well in 2020, posting a 2.75 ERA and a 29/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings, and the Mets would like to see that fresh arm hit the ground running in pro ball. He has a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch as high as 97 in shorter stints, adding a very good splitter with great depth down in the zone, an average hard slider with good horizontal movement, and an average cutter that's a little firmer than his slider. He has a skinny 6'3" frame and throws plenty of strikes, but he hasn't proven he can hold his stuff deep into games or deep into the season. That, combined with his age, means that he might be ticketed to the bullpen, though the Mets would love to see him continue to add strength as he gets farther from his cancer battles and potentially surprise some people as a #4 starter. In the bullpen, his fastball could be more consistently in the mid 90's and could play really well off his splitter, and he could move more quickly, which would be useful given his age. He signed for just $20,000, saving $337,100 off of slot value.
Undrafted: OF Joe Suozzi, Boston College (unranked)
Here's a hometown kid for the Mets, and a congressman's son no less. Joe Suozzi, son of U.S. House of Representatives member Thomas Suozzi, grew up in Glen Cove and attended Chaminade High School in Mineola, just twenty minutes west of Citi Field on Long Island. He's gotten better and better throughout his career at Boston College after walking on as a sophomore, capping it off with a great start to his junior year in which he slashed .414/.471/.638 with one home run and a 16/8 strikeout to walk ratio while picking up at least one hit in 14 out of 15 games. That wasn't a weak schedule, either, as it included weekend series against Arizona State and Clemson and he went a combined 11-26 (.423 AVG) with three doubles and two walks in those six games. He's an aggressive hitter that doesn't draw many walks, instead swinging early and often in the count to try to do damage. It's worked better and better for him at BC as his hit tool has developed, and he's got some raw power in his 6'2" frame as well. He'll need to cut down the aggressiveness in pro ball or else advanced pitchers will carve him up, but he showed a lot of impact in the shortened 2020 season and the Mets think the bat will be potent enough to work.
Other undrafted
RHP Kody Davidson, Tennessee (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 8/0 K/BB in 5.1 innings)
RHP Austin Faith, Lamar (0-1, 9.28 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 6/8 K/BB in 10.2 innings)
RHP Dylan Hall, Central Oklahoma (4-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 45/8 K/BB in 30 innings)
OF Brandon McIlwaine, California (2 HR, .258/.309/.435, 2 SB, 22/5 K/BB in 20 games)
RHP Drake Nightengale, South Alabama (1-0, 3.09 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 39/10 K/BB in 23.1 innings)
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