2022 draftees: 95. Top school: Southern Miss (5).
2022 preseason writeup (published 11/1/2021)
Top draftees:
1-13, Angels: SS Zach Neto (Campbell)
1-16, Guardians: OF Chase DeLauter (James Madison)
1-27, Brewers: SS Eric Brown (Coastal Carolina)
1-30, Giants: LHP Reggie Crawford (Connecticut)
CBA-36, Pirates: RHP Thomas Harrington (Campbell)
2-58, Mariners: 3B Tyler Locklear (Virginia Commonwealth)
2-66, Giants: LHP Carson Whisenhunt (East Carolina)
This article will focus on the Division I programs outside of the traditional Power Five conferences east of the Mississippi River, but programs like ECU, Central Michigan, Coastal Carolina, Campbell, and Southern Miss, among many others, ensure that we're still talking about a very high level of play perhaps even higher than the Big Ten in some conferences. Southern Miss, for its part, led the programs in this category with five draftees a year ago, more than any team in the Big Ten, and returns another big name on this list in Tanner Hall even with likely first round pick Hurston Waldrep transferring to Florida.
The name Hurston Waldrep actually brings out an interesting factor. Now in the transfer era, it's only natural that the best players at smaller programs want to transfer to larger programs, and if there's a spot open, why shouldn't they? What that means for this list, though, is that there was a small exodus of talent to other lists – Waldrep from Southern Miss to Florida and Colton Ledbetter from Samford to Auburn as far as my previous lists go, plus Carter Trice from Old Dominion to NC State that just missed the ACC list. So that's at least three players that would have made this list that are instead trying their hands in the SEC and ACC. But that doesn't mean it's slim pickings around the Sun Belt, American, Big South, and elsewhere. No one school put multiple names on this list, but Southern Miss would have if they held on to Waldrep. A year ago, five different players from eastern mid major programs went in the first 36 picks – we'll have to see who emerges to make that happen again this year, but that's usually the case with the smaller schools. There are a lot of late bloomers here.
One more interesting theme: In an era where players often travel across the country to play college ball, nine of the ten players on this list stayed in their home state for college ball, and the only one to cross state lines, Tanner Hall of Southern Miss, still stayed within three hours of his hometown in Louisiana. Additionally, in an era where from personal experience I feel like I have seen many players who were on the older side for the class, each of the top nine players on this list will still be 20 years old at the end of January. And with four players who will still be 20 at the start of May, youth is certainly a theme.
1. RHP Cade Kuehler, Campbell.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 5/24/2002. Hometown: Waxhaw, NC.
2022: 4-6, 4.07 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 111/38 K/BB in 84 innings.
Last year, Zach Neto was the first mid major player drafted from the eastern half of the country, and Campbell enters the 2023 season with the favorite to do it again in Cade Kuehler. He hasn't posted loud numbers yet for the Fighting Camels, but the stuff is certainly loud and he has a chance to take a big step forward this spring. His fastball sits comfortably in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96-97 with ease during his starts, but he has hit as high as 99 in shorter stints. Beyond the plus velocity, he gets explosive riding life on the pitch despite an unremarkable release point, so it can really perform when it's commanded. The fastball steals the show for now, but Kuehler also brings in a full arsenal of secondaries working in a short, hard slider, a bigger curveball, and a changeup. The slider is probably his best secondary for now, but the deep arsenal is strong throughout and he can consistently steal strikes with any of them. Further helping his profile is his delivery, in which he turns back towards second base and shows his back to the hitter before unfurling and firing towards the plate. For now, it does impact his command and that is likely the culprit for his unremarkable numbers (though you do love to see the 31.2% strikeout rate), but he's young for a college junior with a May birthday and has plenty of time to figure things out. If he can better keep his delivery in sync through that long trunk rotation, it's an easy first round profile given the stuff. Ironing out that command will also help stave off reliever questions, which aren't present yet but may arise due to his shorter stature and exaggerated delivery.
2. 1B Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'3", 195 lbs. Born 2/14/2002. Hometown: Boynton Beach, FL.
2022: 16 HR, .369/.477/.658, 11 SB, 22/39 K/BB in 58 games.
Unlike Cade Kuehler, Nolan Schanuel's numbers do indeed pop off the page. He's been an absolute force since arriving in Boca Raton just up the road from his hometown of Boynton Beach, slashing .357/.462/.619 with 27 home runs and more than twice as many walks and HBP's (89) as strikeouts (43) over his two seasons. Unfortunately those numbers did not carry over to the Cape Cod League, where he went up against better pitching with wood bats and slashed just .211/.356/.324 in 41 games. Schanuel has an elite approach at the plate with strong feel for the barrel, and even as he struggled to make an impact on the Cape, he still walked more (15.8%) than he struck out (15.3%), a very impressive feat in that league. Maintaining that elite ability to control the zone even when jumping from Conference USA to the Cape speaks volumes to the hit tool, and it should make evaluators very comfortable that he will be completely unfazed by higher level pitching in pro ball. And with FAU, you couldn't ask for better production. He holds his hands high in his stance, dropping them down in his load before throwing them through the zone with a loose, accurate barrel. He has worked to get stronger and he jumped from 23 extra base hits as a freshman to 33 as a sophomore, though he had just nine on the Cape and his ability to tap more than average power is a big question given his defensive limitations. He has played mostly first base at FAU, though he has experience in the outfield corners and he has enough speed to make it work out there if he doesn't slow down with age. Hit over power first base profiles aren't all that common, though this draft has three famous names on the college side in Schanuel, LSU's Tre' Morgan, and Oregon State's Garret Forrester that fit that profile. If he can bulk up a little more with that 6'3" frame, he does have the swing and feel for the barrel to tap 20+ home run power at his ceiling. For now, he profiles for high on-base percentages and 15-20 home runs a year as a median projection.
3. RHP Tanner Hall, Southern Miss.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 185 lbs. Born 3/18/2002. Hometown: Zachary, LA.
2022: 9-3, 2.81 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 146/14 K/BB in 109 innings.
A year ago, Tanner Hall and Hurston Waldrep formed the best 1-2 punch of underclass pitchers in the country. Waldrep transferred to Florida, and while he is the better prospect of the two, Hall actually outpitched him last year. His 146 strikeouts were fourth in the country last year (Waldrep's 140 were eighth), and if you take the top 35 on the NCAA Division I strikeout leaderboard, he and Astros fourth round pick Trey Dombroski (120 strikeouts) tied for the fewest walks at 14. Hall has a solid three pitch mix, starting with a fastball around 90 with run and sink that helps it play above its average velocity. His slider is an above average pitch with sweeping action across the plate, while his changeup is above average in its own right with drop. Everything plays way up, of course, because of his plus command that helps him pick hitters apart while executing on that three pitch mix. He also hides the ball well, which combined with his command and the movement he gets on his pitches from a low three quarters arm slot, makes for an extremely tough at bat for hitters. It's the kind of profile the Guardians could turn into a big league ace, and if he adds a tick or two of velocity to get more comfortably into the low 90's, we have a very intriguing top two rounds prospect. Until he adds that velocity, he may fit better towards the back of the second/early third round range. He'll be one to watch closely now that he'll own the spotlight on the mound in Hattiesburg.
4. C Michael Carico, Davidson.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 9/4/2002. Hometown: Kernersville, NC.
2022: 21 HR, .406/.559/.843, 3 SB, 35/46 K/BB in 54 games.
I mentioned that Nolan Schanuel has posted incredible numbers at FAU, but Michael Carico's numbers at Davidson make Schanuel's look like child's play. Lightly recruited out of high school, he didn't make much of an impact as a freshman but exploded as a sophomore for one of the craziest stat lines in the country. His .559 on-base percentage led all of Division I, while his .843 slugging percentage was third and his .406 batting average finished eighth. In terms of production, it doesn't get any better than that. Like Schanuel, he brings elite plate discipline and rarely chases, allowing him to consistently find good pitches to hit. When Carico does get his pitch, he never misses it, punishing those mistakes at an elite level. His elite feel for the barrel from a controlled, leveraged left handed swing helps him tap above average power in games, setting the Davidson home run record this past spring. If there is one hole in his offensive game, it's that he's not quite proven against higher level pitching. Just eleven of his 54 games came against teams that made the NCAA Tournament, none of which placed better than a #3 seed, though to be fair he did hit .413/.500/.826 with five home runs and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio over those elven games. But ultimately, it was a very weak schedule if four games against VCU represents far and away your toughest test. He did go on to play in the Northwoods League over the summer, which isn't quite the Cape Cod League but still features strong competition, and he hit .263/.482/.447 over 24 games there. Ultimately, I believe his elite discipline at the plate will help him make that jump from the Atlantic 10 Conference to pro ball, but it is a jump, more so than Schanuel's jump from the C-USA. Defensively, the Piedmont Triad native is more athletic than most catchers and has a very good chance to stick back there, which would buy even more time for his bat to transition up. Lastly, Carico is also very young for the class, not turning 21 for more than a month after the draft and checking in younger than a few members of the 2024 college draft class.
5. OF Drew Brutcher, South Florida.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'5", 205 lbs. Born 2/12/2002. Hometown: Lakeland, FL.
2022: 13 HR, .299/.447/.610, 1 SB, 60/37 K/BB in 43 games.
Drew Brutcher brings with him shades of Aaron Judge and Spencer Jones, but he's left handed. A career .297/.436/.582 hitter with 21 home runs in 75 games over two seasons in Tampa, he has been one of the better hitters in the AAC despite missing time in both seasons with injuries. He carried that success over to the Cape Cod League as well, where he slashed .270/.355/.409 with three home runs in 40 games. Brutcher is immensely talented, standing 6'5" with as much physical upside as any player in the class. The ball really jumps off his bat, coming in with a loose, leveraged left handed swing that helps him get to balls all over the zone and exert plus power. He also brings a very patient approach at the plate, helping him run an 18.6% walk rate at USF last year and 9.7% on the Cape, but his pure bat to ball and pitch recognition skills aren't quite there yet even with the adjustability in his swing. That's led to very elevated strikeout rates, including 30.2% at USF last year and 29.7% on the Cape, both well above where he needs to be. The good news is that between his power, adjustable swing, and patience at the plate, he already has most of the building blocks he needs to become an impact hitter. Taller hitters sometimes take longer to cut down on the swing and miss, and 2023 will be about recognizing pitches better in order to put it all together. The elevated strikeout rates have clearly not hurt his production yet. Defensively, he's a solid runner with a good arm that can play all over the outfield, though he may end up being pushed off center field as he slows down with age. It's an interesting sleeper profile that could break out into one for the top two rounds if he puts it together.
6. RHP Jay Driver, Harvard.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 195 lbs. Born 2/25/2002. Hometown: Wellesley, MA.
2022: 1-1, 1.91 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 45/13 K/BB in 28.1 innings.
Jay Driver comes to us with very limited track record, as the Ivy League's absurd COVID policies robbed him of his freshman season and he made just fifteen relief appearances as a sophomore. However, he opened a lot of eyes in those 28.1 innings and further made a name for himself on the Cape last summer, where he posted a 4.85 ERA but ran a very strong 48/10 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.2 innings, some even as a starter. That has him in position to become the Ivy League's first top five round pick since Yale's Rohan Handa went to the Giants in 2021, their first top four round pick since Cornell's Brent Jones went to the Diamondbacks in 2014, or even the first top three round pick since Princeton's David Hale went to the Braves way back in 2009. Driver sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 97 in short stints, getting plenty of sink and run on the pitch from a sidearm slot. His sweeping slider flashes plus and can make hitters look foolish, helping him run up a 39.5% strikeout rate at Harvard and a 38.1% rate on the Cape, while his fading changeup gives him a third weapon. It's a really strong three pitch mix from an unusual arm angle that misses bats in bunches, and while his command is probably fringy for now, the stuff has still been enough to overwhelm Ivy League hitters and keep Cape Cod League hitters at bay. The 6'3" righty has a projectable, athletic frame and did see four starts on the Cape after pitching exclusively in relief for Harvard, but he hasn't been stretched out in that role consistently yet and it's unknown how the stuff and command will hold up over longer stretches. It's probably a bullpen profile, but it's one of my favorites in the class and one to keep a close eye on this spring.
7. RHP Trey Gibson, Liberty.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 230 lbs. Born 5/18/2002. Hometown: Yorktown, VA.
2022: 3-5, 6.75 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 72/30 K/BB in 56 innings.
Trey Gibson established himself as one of the best young pitchers in the A-Sun as a freshman, when he put up a 3.32 ERA and a 70/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings, but he took a step backward as a sophomore when his walk rate jumped from 7.9% to 11.2% and his ERA more than doubled. Still, the size, arm strength, and deep arsenal have plenty of scouts interested. Gibson sits in the low 90's with his fastball with the ability to reach back for a little more, though it's a fairly generic pitch movement-wise. He stands out for a big, deep curveball that misses a lot of bats, adding in a sweepier slider and a solid changeup to make for a quality four pitch mix. That, combined with the big, physical, 6'5" frame, has many scouts believing in his upside as a #4 starter in the big leagues. To get there, though, he'll have to improve his strike throwing, as his longer arm action leaves him with inconsistent command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff. He has quality stuff, especially the curveball, but it's not quite explosive enough to make up for being left over the plate or falling behind in the count, leading to that 6.75 ERA a year ago. He is young, only turning 21 a couple months before the draft, and that does help his case when it comes to putting everything together, but it still needs to happen. He figures to go somewhere in the middle of day two right now.
8. OF Jake Cunningham, Charlotte.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 205 lbs. Born 7/3/2002. Hometown: Charlotte, NC.
2022: 16 HR, .304/.410/.595, 16 SB, 69/38 K/BB in 57 games.
Jake Cunningham brings some similarities to Drew Brutcher a couple spots above him on this list. Besides playing for a green and gold team in or coming to the AAC, he's a lanky, toolsy outfielder with hit tool questions coming off a big season. Cunningham didn't hit much as a freshman, but broke out for a huge sophomore season that earned him a spot in the Cape Cod League over the summer. He struggled there in a brief, seven game sample (.174/.269/.217), but he is firmly on area scouts' radars now. The Charlotte native takes big hacks from the right side, helping him generate above average power that he taps in games and which may become plus as he fills out. Cunningham shows strong pitch recognition skills that helps him get good pitches to hit, but that longer swing can lead to some swing and miss and he struck out in over a quarter of his plate appearances last spring. As I mentioned with Brutcher, that can be natural for taller young hitters and many outgrow it in time. The fact that Cunningham is very young for his class, only turning 21 shortly before the draft, adds to that upside. He's also an above average runner with a chance to play center field in the long run, though also like Brutcher, a better defender could push him to right field where he would be above average. Aside from the pure bat to ball skills, it's a very well rounded profile that has already become a problem for opposing pitchers in the C-USA.
9. RHP William Privette, College of Charleston.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 210 lbs. Born 2/1/2002. Hometown: Chapin, SC.
2022: 3-1, 0.91 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 80/15 K/BB in 59.1 innings.
College of Charleston was quietly a very solid team last year, winning the CAA regular season title at 19-5 in conference on their way to a 37-20 finish. A big reason for that success was their closer, William Privette, who is looking to be the first Cougar drafted in the top five rounds since Taylor Clarke and Carl Wise went in the third and fourth round, respectively, in 2015. In fact, Charleston hasn't had a player drafted at all since three Cougars heard their names called in 2019, so Privette is a very exciting development for the program. He dominated CAA hitters with a 0.91 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, while recording nearly twice as many strikeouts (80) as baserunners allowed (49). He carried that success on to the Cape Cod League, where he made six relief appearances and posted a 1.74 ERA and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings. Privette won't light up the radar gun, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding a solid breaking ball that plays well off the heater. It all plays up, though, for a variety of reasons. Despite longer arm action, the 6'5" righty manages to keep everything in sync and shows above average control, helping him stay ahead in the count and keep his pitches closer to the zones where they'll play better. He also shows heavy trunk tilt that helps him create a very vertical release point closer to the first base side of the rubber than you would expect from a right hander, and it works with his setup as he pitches from the first base side already. He also gets some sneaky life on his fastball up in the zone, and together, it's a great relief profile that provides a fairly unique look. It will be interesting to see if Charleston runs him out as a starter at any point, but he has been so successful in a relief role that they may not want to mess with it. With two quality pitches, good command, a big frame, a unique look, and a track record of performance, he checks a lot of boxes for a college reliever.
10. RHP Eriq Swan, Middle Tennessee State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'6", 240 lbs. Born 10/31/2001. Hometown: Murfreesboro, TN.
2022: 2-6, 7.62 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 44/31 K/BB in 52 innings.
Eriq Swan gives us a second big right handed reliever in a row, but he is virtually the opposite of William Privette as a prospect. Swan showed well in a small sample as a freshman at Middle Tennessee State, but really struggled as a sophomore when he allowed more than a run per inning and ran just a 17.2% strikeout rate to a 12.1% walk rate. He earned three early season appearances in the Cape Cod League over the summer and showed extremely well, tossing eight shutout innings while allowing just four hits and one walk mixed in with eleven strikeouts. It was all punctuated in his final appearance, when he struck out eight of the eleven Falmouth batters he faced on June 25th including Drew Brutcher on this list and possible top ten pick Brayden Taylor of TCU. Swan is a fireballer, sitting comfortably in the mid 90's as a starter and running it as high as 99 in short stints, all with a fairly effortless delivery from a huge 6'6" frame. He also drops in a a solid slider with great depth, though it does need too add power to miss pro bats, and shows feel for a solid changeup as well. To this point, he has not missed many bats at MTSU and looks like he would fit much better in relief, as his command is better in short spurts and it's easier for him to maintain his stuff. College starters who transition to relief work in pro ball often fare better than those who were already pure relievers when they were drafted, and if his short Cape run is any indication, Swan could be a sleeper to benefit from such a move with his power fastball and two quality offspeeds.
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