First five rounds: Ethan Small (1-28), Antoine Kelly (2-65), Nick Kahle (4-133), Thomas Dillard (5-163)
Also notable: Nick Bennett (6-193), Gabe Holt (7-223), Brock Begue (11-343), Carter Rustad (23-703)
Aside from sticking mostly to the college side, the Brewers followed no patterns with this draft, mixing positions and projections to grab who they thought were the best players available. They traded the 41st overall pick to the Rangers for Alex Claudio and lost their third round pick (which would have been 104th overall) for signing Yasmani Grandal, so they weren't in a great spot to begin with, but they made the most of it by targeting mostly signable college players, and their only early round junior college pick signed at slot.
1-28: LHP Ethan Small (Mississippi State, my rank: 55)
Navy's Noah Song (now a Red Sox) and Missouri's T.J. Sikkema (now a Yankee) put together fantastic seasons this year, but nobody was quite as dominant against such stiff competition as Mississippi State's Ethan Small. In 17 starts through super regionals, Small went 10-2 with a 1.76 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 168/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 innings, and he put together some of his strongest performances against tough SEC lineups like Texas A&M (one baserunner in seven shutout innings), Alabama (15 strikeouts over six shutout innings), and Ole Miss (ten strikeouts over five shutout innings). So there's no question that he can miss the best bats in college baseball; the real question is his professional projection. Small, for one, isn't small; he's a 6'3" lefty from a small town halfway between Nashville and Memphis, Tennessee. He also missed all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery, so he's a redshirt junior this year and already 22 years old. Small only sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a great changeup and a good curveball, commanding everything very well and racking up strikeouts not by his pure stuff but by his ability to mix pitches and keep hitters off balance from the start of the at bat to the end. Obviously, hitters will get better and better as he moves through the minor leagues and without much projection or velocity, his ability to remain one step ahead of his opponents will be stretched, so it will be interesting to watch him as he works his way up. He has back-end starter projection, but his incredible feel for pitching gives him the chance to move very quickly through the minors and possibly outplay that projection. Slot value is $2.49 million, though I'm not sure it will take full slot to sign him.
2-65: LHP Antoine Kelly (Wabash Valley JC, my rank: 132)
The Brewers went with another college lefty in Antoine Kelly, but these two picks couldn't possibly be more different. While Small is an established SEC arm with fantastic pitchability and average stuff, Kelly is exactly the opposite. The 19 year old is a freshman at Wabash Valley Community College in Southern Illinois, where he struck out 112 batters in just 52.2 innings thanks to a mid 90's fastball that has simply overpowered his weak competition. It's not just the velocity that scouts love, because Kelly is a 6'6" lefty with plenty of projection and he generates that velocity with very little effort, giving him the chance to sit in the upper 90's consistently with pro coaching. However, that's the end of the positives here. Kelly has a mediocre slider that won't miss professional bats, and his changeup is virtually non-existent. At the same time, he struggles with his command (he also walked 31 batters in those 52.2 innings) and some scouts have questioned his mound presence, as he is 100% thrower and 0% pitcher. The Brewers are drafting the left arm here and the left arm alone, with the hopes of helping him develop a breaking ball, a changeup, and command. It's a very high risk proposition, but arms like his are few and far between and his upside is tremendous if he can make it click. The Chicago native has already signed right at slot value for $1.03 million.
4-133: C Nick Kahle (Washington, unranked)
As a one man crew, I can't get to everyone before the draft, and Nick Kahle was the next player up on my list to research when the day came. I guess every year it has to be somebody. Kahle himself is a somewhat unremarkable prospect, but he has few glaring weaknesses and plays a premium position, and sometimes the boring guys can produce plenty of value. Kahle had a breakout year at Washington this year, slashing .339/.506/.532 with eight home runs and a 28/59 strikeout to walk ratio, his excellent plate discipline standing out above all else. He is a very patient hitter who walked in a quarter of his plate appearances this season, then did damage when (/if) he finally did get his pitch. He's a stocky 5'10" and doesn't project for a ton of power, but there is some whip in his swing and a bit of added loft could help him get close to average in that respect, and with his plate discipline, he should be able to get to whatever power he develops in pro ball. He's just average defensively, but he has a strong feel for the game and should be able to stick back there, bringing his overall projection to that of a low-risk backup catcher. He's originally from the Los Angeles area and slot value is $422,300.
5-163: C Thomas Dillard (Mississippi, my rank: 98)
Now this is a pick I can get behind, and I find it much more interesting than the Kahle pick. Through the first game of super regionals, Dillard is slashing .315/.452/.553 with 14 home runs and a 51/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games for Ole Miss, showing big production in a big conference. However, there are questions as to how much his offensive profile will translate to pro ball, as his line dropped to just .273/.406/.391 in SEC play (though he homered off Arkansas ace and Mariners second rounder Isaiah Campbell in the first game of super regionals yesterday). The Mississippi native is country strong and produces his power from a whippy swing with loft, so it's a bit of a mystery as to why his power disappeared in SEC play, with his Cape Cod numbers (.235/.367/.363, 5 HR in 55 games over two seasons) not providing much solace. However, even more interesting than his offensive profile in the immediate future is his defensive one, because put simply, he's not a catcher. Ole Miss used him there sparingly as a backup to Cooper Johnson, but he played mostly outfield and the consensus is that his glove is a long ways off from working back there, especially for a collegian who will be 22 in August. If the Brewers can make it work for him back there, they may have a steal in the fifth round, as a lot of pressure would be lifted off his bat and he would have the opportunity to be one of the better-hitting catchers in the game. Defense aside, he does have some work to do at the plate, but he projects for 20-30 home runs and solid on-base percentages if he can iron out whatever kept him from his power in SEC play. Slot value is $315,400.
6-193: LHP Nick Bennett (Louisville, unranked)
I saw Bennett pitch in 2018 (read my notes from that day here), when he was in the midst of a sophomore year where he posted a 2.84 ERA and a 72/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings and came away very impressed, but 2019 has been much more rocky for him. A forearm injury slowed him down and his stuff wasn't the same when he came back, posting a 4.40 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 73/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings through super regionals. He bumped his velocity up into the low 90's this year before the injury and adds a big breaking curveball with plus depth, and his changeup is above average as well, but everything ticked down after the injury and he hasn't been the same pitcher. I haven't seen his medicals but based off the forearm strain/diminished stuff, those sounds like classic pre-Tommy John symptoms. Still, when healthy, he's a 6'4" lefty who attacks hitters with three above average pitches as well as a mediocre cutter/slider, and his command has been solid throughout his career. He projects as a back-end starter, and slot value is $244,900.
7-223: OF Gabe Holt (Texas Tech, unranked)
Holt hasn't been in Lubbock long, but the sophomore has made his presence known by slashing .348/.440/.485 as a freshman in 2018 then .320/.413/.438 with three home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through the second game of super regionals as a sophomore this year. He's much more of a slap hitter than an impact bat, but he's extremely fast and uses his speed to his advantage at every opportunity, totaling 57 stolen bases and countless more "extra" bases over his two seasons with the Red Raiders. He also has very strong plate discipline and puts the bat on the ball with ease, giving him a very good chance to hit for average and on-base percentage in pro ball even if he'll never hit for any kind of power. Though he's just a sophomore, the Central Georgia native the age of a college junior, making him eligible this year. Slot value is $192,900, and I think Holt is a steal in this part of the draft.
11-343: LHP Brock Begue (Cuyahoga JC, unranked)
I couldn't find much about Begue's actual skill set on the mound, but the junior college arm from Ohio has a fascinating story. After suffering a series of life-threatening seizures as an infant, he lost all feeling on the right side of his body and his parents were told he would never be able to move normally. Still, he worked past his challenges and now has full range of motion and coordination, good enough to make him an eleventh round pick as a 6'3" left handed pitcher. You can read more about his story here.
23-703: RHP Carter Rustad (Staley HS [MO], my rank: 125)
Rustad is likely unsignable here, or if the Brewers can manage to get a deal done, it will have to be way over slot to pull him away from his commitment to the University of San Diego. The 6'5" righty from a Kansas City high school is much more about projection than current stuff, as he is currently very inconsistent but looks like an impact arm at his best. Early in his starts, he can sit as high as the mid 90's with an above average changeup and a slider with good shape, but that velocity can dip as far as the high 80's late in his starts and the slider often flattens out. He has easy arm action and could one day sit at the upper end of his stuff, giving him a high ceiling as well as a ton of risk.
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