First five rounds: Korey Lee (1-32), Grae Kessinger (2-68), Jordan Brewer (3-106), Colin Barber (4-136), Hunter Brown (5-166)
Also notable: Matthew Barefoot (6-196), Blair Henley (7-226), Garrett Gayle (12-376)
The Astros went hitter-heavy with this draft, taking position players with each of their first four picks and with seven of their first ten before switching to mostly pitchers on Day Three. While I tend to agree with this format of drafting, taking bats early and loading up on arms later, they seem to lack impact in their draft class. Korey Lee has a shot at being a starting catcher with some power, though that was their first round pick and Grae Kessinger and Jordan Brewer seem more like backups to me and Colin Barber is far from a guarantee to pan out. That said, the Astros have been very good at developing talent, and they have as good a chance as any team to get the most out of this class, and I do think the Colin Barber and Matthew Barefoot picks especially could be interesting.
1-32: C Korey Lee (California, my rank: 97)
While it may look like I hate this pick based on Lee barely cracking my top 100, I actually had him ranked better than MLB Pipeline (#119) and Baseball America (#173), and I never really understood why other outlets had him ranked so poorly. Lee hit behind the great Andrew Vaughn in the California lineup, and he himself put up a big breakout season by slashing .338/.419/.626 with 15 home runs and a 42/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games this year. Lee got to his power much more consistently in 2019 after hitting just five home runs over his first two seasons in Berkeley, using his strong wrists and slight uppercut swing to get the ball off his bat in a hurry. His swing can get a little long because he keeps his hands way back behind his body before he swings, but he kept his strikeout rate under 20% and should continue to get to his power in pro ball. Defensively, Lee has a cannon arm but still needs work on his overall defense, but the good news is that he's at least trending in the right direction both offensively and defensively. He has the ceiling of a 20-25 homer catcher with decent on-base percentages, but that is assuming he keeps on the same upward trajectory he has been on throughout 2019. The Astros think he'll do that and his slot value is $2.26 million, though he may not require all of that to sign.
2-68: SS Grae Kessinger (Mississippi, my rank: 135)
I was able to warm myself up to the Lee pick despite the discrepancies in his ranking, but I'm not as big of a fan of the Kessinger pick. He's an interesting one because the entirety of his resume comes from a two month stretch of the 2019 season. After hitting poorly as a freshman at Ole Miss and slashing a solid if unspectacular .300/.389/.473 as a sophomore, he bumped it up to .332/.427/.458 with five home runs and a 32/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games this season. That .332/.427/.458 line includes a huge .405/.472/.556 showing across 30 games in SEC play against college baseball's stiffest competition, a huge accomplishment that can stand on its own no matter what else a player has done. Kessinger doesn't have much power, but his excellent plate discipline and feel to hit have helped him perform even against top flight pitching, and that in turn will help him hit for high averages in pro ball. Defensively, he probably won't stick at shortstop but would make a good second baseman, where I think his bat will be a little too light to start. Overall, I peg him more as a utility infielder than as a starter due to the lack of power, and that limited upside is why I'm not a big fan of this pick. Slot value is $953,100, and this is just a hunch but as an Ole Miss lifer (he's an Oxford native whose father, uncle, and grandfather played for the Rebels), he might not take a discount to leave the program as a junior.
3-106: OF Jordan Brewer (Michigan, my rank: 124)
This is a very Astros pick, as Brewer is a college performer with some upside. After two years at Lincoln Trail College in Southern Illinois, Brewer transferred to back to his home state and dream school, Michigan, for the 2019 season. He had a huge season, slashing .349/.409/.612 with 12 home runs and a 44/22 strikeout to walk ratio in a down year for the Big 10, also adding 23 stolen bases in 54 games. His loudest tool is his speed, but he clearly showed in 2019 that he can hit as well, giving him a chance to hit 15 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases at his peak, though with his so-so plate discipline, he's more likely a strong fourth outfielder like current Astro Jake Marisnick. He does make good contact and has worked hard to better his game, so I wouldn't underestimate him. Slot value is $549,000 here, which sounds about right for him.
4-136: OF Colin Barber (Pleasant Valley HS [CA], unranked)
Colin Barber is one of those raw, toolsy high school outfielders who is much more about projection than current level of play. Coming from Chico in far Northern California, Barber has an extremely quick bat from the left side of the plate, and even with a short swing without a ton of loft, he produces good present power from his six foot frame. With some pro coaching to get more extension, he could hit 20-25 home runs annually in the majors. Obviously, as a high schooler, he comes with more variance in his potential outcomes with more risk and a higher ceiling than someone like Jordan Brewer, but he has a chance to be an impact player for Houston down the road. Slot value is $410,100, but if the Astros save money on fellow Californian Korey Lee, he might get some of that extra cash to go over slot.
5-166: RHP Hunter Brown (Wayne State, my rank: 105)
Hunter Brown is an interesting one. Lightly recruited out of his Detroit-area high school in 2016, Brown ended up at DII Wayne State and has improved considerably and consistently. He's a 6'2" righty with a mid 90's fastball and a good slider, though his command is just decent for now and he doesn't throw much of a changeup. Even with all the improvement, he's still fairly raw for a college pitcher, though his August birthday makes him young for the class and gives him a little extra development time. The Astros are buying the arm strength and the trajectory at this point, with the hope that Brown can develop that changeup and get more consistent with his command. If not, his fastball/slider combination will play up in the bullpen. Slot value is $306,800, which is about fair.
6-196: OF Matthew Barefoot (Campbell, unranked)
The Astros grabbed another outfielder with their sixth round pick, taking Campbell's Matthew Barefoot after a strong redshirt junior season in which he slashed .311/.407/.570 with 14 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 24/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for the Camels. He's a really interesting player because he has somewhat of a throwback swing in which he crouches down to meet the plane of the ball, a little similar to Al Bumbry but from the right side. Despite the weird swing, he not only performed for Campbell in the Big South, but he actually hit very well against elite competition in the Cape Cod League, slashing .379/.474/.521 with three home runs and a 24/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games there this past summer. His strong plate discipline and feel for the barrel make him a prime candidate to make his mechanics work at the next level, and even though he's in his fourth year at school, he's young for his class and doesn't turn 22 until September. He comes with more risk than the typical fourth year college player in this part of the draft, but Hunter Pence worked out for the Astros out of the University of Texas - Arlington fifteen years ago with his odd swing and the they're hoping it works again. Slot value here is $239,000.
7-226: RHP Blair Henley (Texas, unranked)
The Astros went semi-local with their seventh round pick, taking Fort Worth native Blair Henley out of the University of Texas. Henley has had a strong, if unspectacular, career in Austin, potentially capping it off with a 3.54 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 62/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings in his junior season. Henley does not have a lot of moving parts in his delivery, using a simple motion to throw his fastball around 90 and add a good curveball with decent command. The Astros could toy with deploying him as a starter and adding velocity through some mechanical tweaks, but otherwise Henley should move up as a fastball/curveball right handed reliever who could be useful in a seventh inning role. He's unremarkable as a prospect as it currently stands, though the Astros obviously see something in him and will hope to turn him into something more. Slot value is $188,900.
12-376: RHP Garrett Gayle (Rice, unranked)
I don't know much about Rice righty Garrett Gayle, but I'm going to try to include a local product in each of these write-ups. Gayle, from Cypress Woods High School on the northwest side of the Houston suburbs, hasn't quite gotten the big results he was hoping for at Rice. This year, he posted a 5.53 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 47/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.2 innings out of the Owls bullpen. From the video I can find online, it looks like he has short arm action and fires a straight fastball and a curveball with good power and shape with a little bit of drop and drive in his delivery, but he struggles to land the curve for strikes. My guess is that he's deployed as a power reliever, where Houston will work with him to get more consistent with his breaking ball, as it's a good pitch when he can spot it.
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