First five rounds: CJ Abrams (1-6), Joshua Mears (2-48), Logan Driscoll (CBB-73), Hudson Head (3-84), Matt Brash (4-113), Chris Lincoln (5-143)
Also notable: Drake Fellows (6-173), 3B Jack Stronach (21-623), Maurice Hampton (23-683)
The Padres have high hopes for everyone they drafted this year, but the focus really comes down to two players: first rounder CJ Abrams and third rounder Hudson Head. Abrams is an ultra-athletic shortstop with a chance to be the team's future leadoff man, while Head signed a massive overslot bonus in the third round as a kid oozing with upside. Every other pick this year, save for 14th rounder Bodi Rascon, was at or below slot in order to save up for Head's deal. In all, there is a ton of upside in this draft, but aside from possibly Abrams, there are no sure things to be found as the Padres pushed all their chips to the middle.
1-6: SS CJ Abrams (Blessed Trinity HS [GA], my rank: 4)
2018 competitive balance pick Xavier Edwards is performing well in A ball for the Padres, so they decided to take a very similar player in CJ Abrams sixth overall this year. Abrams is a high school shortstop from the Atlanta area who can just flat out play. At 6'2" and ultra-athletic, Abrams can flat out fly and he uses that standout tool for impact both offensively and defensively. He's not just a speedster, as his excellent bat to ball skills help him make the most out of that speed by consistently putting the ball in play, and his long levers enable him to hit for some impact on top of that. He'll never be a power hitter, but he has the chance to develop average pop with that athleticism, though his calling card will always be his speed and contact ability. Reviews of his defense are consistently positive, but just how positive they are varies. He's currently a shortstop, where his speed and athleticism (do I sound like a broken record yet?) enable him to get to everything and generally make all the plays, though he has to work on his consistency there. His fallback will be center field, where his elite speed could make him a Gold Glover and where he already has experience with excellent results. To me, the biggest question isn't his defensive home, but his plate discipline; strikeouts will likely never be a concern with his hit tool, but given his speed, drawing walks will be huge, and honestly the difference between being a successful leadoff man or not. He'll have to show more patience at the plate if he does indeed want to flirt with .400 on-base percentages consistently. Overall, he projects for high averages (OBP projection pending) and 10-15 home runs per season with plenty of stolen bases, though those power numbers could tick up as he matures. An Alabama commit, Abrams instead signed with the Padres for $5.2 million, which was $540,000 below slot, and he's slashing .413/.450/.661 with a pair of home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 10/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games in the complex-level Arizona League; that'll play.
2-48: OF Joshua Mears (Federal Way HS [WA], my rank: 112)
This was an interesting pick by the Padres, as Baseball America put Joshua Mears at #93 on their list, MLB.com had him at #118, and I settled between them by putting him at #112. Mears, a high schooler in the Seattle area, is the exact opposite of Abrams and will be a project. He's listed at 6'3", 230 pounds, and he shows a ton of power from a whippy swing with plenty of loft already. However, his hit tool is average at best, well below at worst, and completely unproven either way. Whether he can get to that big raw power consistently is going to be a huge question going forward, and the Padres will need to work hard with him to refine his approach and help him find the barrel against pro pitching. Defensively, he actually gets average reviews despite his size and he should be either a slightly below average right fielder or an average left fielder, so while he won't be providing any positive value out there, he at least won't be a butcher. Mears is raw around most of his game and carries a ton of risk, but his upside is that of a #4 or #5 hitter who can hit 25-30 or more home runs per season. On the plus side, scouts have said he's a good kid and a hard worker. Committed to Purdue, he signed for $1 million, which was $540,000 below slot, and he's slashing .209/.311/.330 with two home runs and a 32/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games with Abrams in the Arizona League.
CBB-73: C Logan Driscoll (George Mason, unranked)
I played against Logan Driscoll in high school, but I ultimately didn't get to him in my research before the draft and he therefore didn't crack my rankings. In a weak year for college catching, his .343/.462/.598 slash line, nine home runs, and 31/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games for George Mason stood out, even if he was facing mediocre competition in the Atlantic 10 Conference. Driscoll is noted for his plate discipline and may be able to get up to average power, though he likely tops out 15 home runs per season. The Northern Virginia native could use some work defensively but he's already pretty good back there and has good arm strength, so he's not at immediate risk of being forced off the position and he should hold his own back there. That takes pressure off the bat, which will be important because he slashed just .204/.250/.235 with a 19/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in the elite Cape Cod League last summer and hasn't proven his bat against higher level pitching. However, his plate discipline and feel for the barrel should help him in that transition. He projects as a backup catcher at this point, but if he can make that offensive breakthrough at the next level, he does have a chance to start. Driscoll signed for $600,000, which was $257,400 below slot, and he's slashing .176/.176/.235 with five strikeouts to no walks over five games with short season Tri-City.
3-84: OF Hudson Head (Winston Churchill HS [TX], my rank: 136)
So if you add up all the money the Padres saved over their first three picks, you get roughly $1.3 million; well, here's where it went. Hudson Head's massive overslot deal netted him first round money – the most ever for a third rounder – and he will take his high upside into the Padres system. Head ranked at #122 on MLB.com and #128 at Baseball America, while I wasn't completely sold and put him at #136, though I did note him as "interesting" in my notes. Head is a pop-up prospect with very little track record against advanced pitching, and while 6'1" is barely average these days for high level prospects, he packs a lot of athleticism into his listed 180 pounds. The San Antonio high schooler is not too dissimilar to Mason House, the Padres' third rounder two years ago and a fellow pop-up Texan without much experience against advanced pitching, though House has struggled in pro ball and has yet to reach full season ball. Head uses his athleticism to generate good power in this left handed swing, though it has a lot of moving parts and will need to be quieted down and smoothed out in pro ball. He has also really improved his feel for the barrel and that enables him to get to his power more often, but again, he's unproven against advanced pitching. A plus runner, he has a chance to be a plus defender in the outfield as well with his strong arm and some pro refinement. Overall, Head comes with a ton of upside that could mean 20-20 production with high on-base percentages and good defense in a best case scenario, especially if the Padres are willing to spend a fortune on him here, but he'll need a lot of work and the team's big investment comes with no guarantees. Head signed away from his Oklahoma commitment for $3 million, which was almost $2.3 million above slot, and he's slashing .327/.456/.527 with an 18/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games with Abrams and Mears in the Arizona League.
4-113: RHP Matt Brash (Niagara, unranked)
Matt Brash is an off-the-radar pick who was unranked both on MLB.com's top 200 and Baseball America's top 500, so I'll do my best here. The Kingston, Ontario native was easily the best player on a mediocre Niagara team this year, posting a 2.43 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 121/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 innings, though he did face mediocre competition in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Brash is a 6'1" righty who comes from a crouch in his delivery before exploding back upwards and firing what are allegedly low 90's fastballs according to a YouTube video I watched that claimed to show him throwing 93. All the moving parts in his delivery likely hold his command back, though 29 walks in 85 innings is pretty solid and he looks like he does a good job of keeping that delivery in sync for the most part. Still, the delivery might push him to the bullpen, but I haven't seen enough of him to know for sure. He also throws a pair of breaking balls and a changeup, though I couldn't find video on those two. Brash signed at slot for $512,400, and he has a 1.69 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and an 8/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.1 innings between the Arizona League and Class A Fort Wayne.
5-143: RHP Chris Lincoln (UC Santa Barbara, unranked)
In the fifth round, the Padres took their first Californian in Moreno Valley native Chris Lincoln. Lincoln served as UC Santa Barbara's closer this year, posting a 3.57 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 40/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.1 innings. He's a 6'4" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a slider that flashes plus, but his mechanics are mediocre and he'll need some work in pro ball. He comes open early in his delivery, giving hitters a good look at what he's about to throw, and he also throws with a lot of effort. The latter isn't all that important because he throws strikes for the most part and he'll be a reliever in pro ball anyways, but the former will be important to fix to help his stuff play up against pro hitters. Lincoln has the upside of a set-up man if he can get his mechanics in sync and get more consistent with that slider, which can miss bats at times but which can also flatten out and get hit hard. However, there is a fair amount of risk, even for a college reliever. He signed for $325,000, which was $57,700 below slot, and he has a 4.50 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio over six innings in the Arizona League.
6-173: RHP Drake Fellows (Vanderbilt, unranked)
There may not be a bigger spotlight in college baseball than the one that shines on Vanderbilt's Friday night starter, and over the past two seasons, the man under that spotlight has been Drake Fellows. Not only that, but this may have been the best Vanderbilt team ever, one which took home the program's second NCAA Championship this year, so it's safe to say that Fellows has experience with pitching under pressure. The Chicago-area native was a big part of Vanderbilt's success this year, going 13-2 with a 4.09 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 133/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 116.2 innings against stiff competition. The numbers aren't the flashiest, but he got the job done and also did so as a freshman (3.30 ERA, 68/17 K/BB) and as a sophomore (3.92 ERA, 107/35 K/BB). Fellows comes at you with a low 90's sinker that helps him get a lot of ground balls, also adding a slider that can miss a lot of bats when he keeps it down. He also adds a changeup, though he needs to get more consistent with it, and his command has ranged from above average in the past to closer to average this season. With his competitiveness and composure that comes with pitching in his position, he has the ceiling of a back-end starter, though his bulldog mentality might also work as a fastball/slider guy in the bullpen. He signed for $260,000, which was $29,000 below slot, but after a long season and postseason I'm not sure if we'll see him in the minors this year.
21-623: 3B Jack Stronach (UCLA, unranked)
Fifth rounder Chris Lincoln is from Moreno Valley, but I wanted to get a true San Diego native in here with UCLA's Jack Stronach, who went to Helix Charter High School in La Mesa just east of the city. Stronach slashed .317/.378/.418 with two home runs and a 25/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games for the Bruins, showing little power to speak of but proving to be great at putting the barrel on the ball. Standing 6'3" and 195 pounds, the left handed hitter is more content with just spraying the ball around the field, which is easy for him because he rarely swings and misses. Overall, it's a utility infielder projection due to the lack of power, low walk rate, and lack of speed, but he'll definitely pick up his share base hits and boost his batting average. He signed for $100,000 and is slashing .161/.224/.210 with a 15/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games with Tri-City so far.
23-683: OF Maurice Hampton (Memphis University HS [TN], my rank: 39)
Third rounder Hudson Head got all the bonus pool money, so 23rd rounder Maurice Hampton will be packing it up and heading to Louisiana State, which is not only exciting for head baseball coach Paul Mainieri, but for head football coach Ed Orgeron as well. That's right, like Ole Miss commit and Diamondbacks draftee Jerrion Ealy, Maurice Hampton is committed to LSU to play both baseball and football. The super-athlete from Memphis is, as you would expect from an SEC cornerback, extremely fast, and that enables him to play a great center field. Hampton also uses his strength and smooth, quick swing to produce good power, and he has a shot at being a plus hitter if he ever chooses to focus on baseball exclusively. As one would expect, playing football has held his development back a hair, which has caused him to be inconsistent with his hit tool and which has held his power back from playing in games as much as he'd like, but the tools, and certainly the athleticism, are there. He also doesn't turn 18 until August, making him young for his class, and that will play to his benefit as well. While you may hear his name a lot on the gridiron over the coming fall football seasons, Hampton has a chance to develop into a five tool player across Nicholson Drive at Alex Box Stadium in the springs.
No comments:
Post a Comment