Friday, September 6, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Seattle Mariners

Full list of draftees

The Mariners stayed true to their tendencies with this draft class. They started things off with an ultra athletic college pitcher, moved on to blowing most of their remaining bonus pool on a first round-caliber high school pitcher in the second round, then spent the rest of the draft targeting 23 and 24 year olds to save money while also finding spots here and there for some big power bats. By starting early, the Mariners found some of the best senior signs in the country, and overall I really like the class they pulled together.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-15: BHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $4.88 million. Signing bonus: $4.88 million.
My rank: #18. MLB Pipeline: #25. Baseball America: #24.
The Mariners made a splash in the first round by picking up the famous switch pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, and he's the perfect fit. Cijntje (pronounced saint-jeh) first rose to fame as a switch pitching, switch hitting, two-way high school senior at Champagnat Catholic in South Florida, where he earned serious day two interest on account of his pitching. Instead, he made it to campus at Mississippi State where he struggled to a tough-luck 8.10 ERA as a freshman in 2023. A draft-eligible sophomore in 2024 due to turning 21 in May, he slowly pushed his way back into the top five rounds, then the top three, top two, and eventually to the middle of the first round as he seemed to get stronger and stronger with every start. While he switch pitched for the Bulldogs, most see Cijntje as a right handed pitcher only going forward. From that side, he sits in the low to mid 90's and approaches triple digits at peak with his fastball, putting big riding action on the pitch despite a lower release point. As he's progressed in Starkville, it's turned into a true plus pitch. He also shows a tight, hard slider with late bite, giving him a second above average pitch. The changeup at this point is inconsistent and a bit too firm, but it's shown flashes and isn't completely rudimentary. Meanwhile, his stuff is a bit more muted from the left side, with a fastball sitting around 90 with more run and sink unlike his riding right handed fastball. The slider is a bit sweepier, showing less power but more depth. From the right side, it looks like a legitimate #3 starting pitcher profile, while from the left he's more of a two-pitch guy who would work better in the bullpen where the stuff could add a tick. Unsurprisingly, Cijntje is a superb athlete that has gotten more and more refined in repeating his delivery, working his way up to average command with the chance to continue improving in that regard in pro ball, especially if he gives up pitching left handed. This arm fits extremely well in the Mariners' system as the same type of low launch, high ride guy they've had success with in the past. You won't find this combination of polish, athleticism, and trajectory often. Next up will be refining his changeup and continuing to take incremental steps forward everywhere else.

2-55: RHP Ryan Sloan, York Community HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: $1.64 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($1.36 million above slot value).
My rank: #27. MLB Pipeline: #19. Baseball America: #26.
After picking up Jurrangelo Cijntje, the Mariners sank a massive over slot bonus into Ryan Sloan, spending roughly the slot value of the #30 pick here at #55 to buy him out of a Wake Forest commitment. While Sloan was considered one of the top prep arms in the class, guys like William Schmidt (now at LSU) and Cam Caminiti (Braves) were able to jump out first this past spring as the seasons started in Louisiana and Arizona, respectively. However, once Chicago started to thaw, Sloan proved to be every bit as good as his warm weather counterparts and shot back into the first round conversation. While the Mariners typically target athletic pitchers, Sloan gives them more of a size and strength guy. His fastball ticked up this spring, sitting in the mid 90's and touching 99 with flat plane, a potential plus-plus pitch. His slider flashes plus with late sweep, while his changeup looks very promising with late tumble, both looking especially deadly when he can locate them. The 6'5" righty has a big league body already with a big, durable frame, and while he's not the most athletic pitcher in the class, he gets down the mound well for a big guy and comes with tremendous upside. He has average command, which is very impressive for a pitcher with his caliber of stuff. Sloan could be an ace.

3-91: RHP Hunter Cranton, Kansas {video}
Slot value: $812,900. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($762,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #213. Baseball America: unranked.
After giving Ryan Sloan that massive bonus in the second round, the Mariners had to start saving money quick and did so by giving Hunter Cranton the second smallest bonus of any player selected in the top four rounds. He's extremely well travelled, having played high school ball at JSerra Catholic High School in Orange County, California alongside names like Royce Lewis, Gage Jump, and Cody Schrier. Cranton began his career at Saddleback JC just down the street from his high school, then after two seasons transferred to San Diego State but barely pitched at the latter. He's spent the past two seasons at Kansas, where he has found his groove in the bullpen and figures to stay there going forward with Seattle. Cranton's fastball is borderline elite, sitting in the mid to upper 90's and touching triple digits with riding and running action from a low release point. It earned chases and whiffs over a third of the time, elite marks for a fastball, and projects as a plus-plus pitch in pro ball. He also rips off a hard, tight sweeper that flashes plus in its own right, giving him one of the nastier one-two punches out there. On top of it all, Cranton pounds the zone and, at least at the college level, was able to consistently stay ahead of hitters. The Mariners absolutely love these types of arms and have a great track record with them, so this pairing could not be more perfect. On the downside, the 6'3" righty turns 24 early in the offseason. He's also a pure reliever that throws with considerable effort, a demographic that does not have a strong track record coming from the college level. The Mariners will look to buck that trend and get his reasonably-commanded fastball/slider combination to the big leagues quickly. So far, he has allowed four runs (three earned) over 7.1 innings for Low A Modesto, striking out thirteen along the way.

4-121: C Josh Caron, Nebraska {video}
Slot value: $594,000. Signing bonus: $594,900 ($900 below slot value).
My rank: #131. MLB Pipeline: #172. Baseball America: #300.
If you liked Mike Zunino and Cal Raleigh, you're going to love Josh Caron, the next power hitting catcher in line for Seattle. He was more good than great for most of his career at Nebraska, but came on late hitting six home runs in the 2024 Big Ten Tournament to launch himself into day two draft conversations. The power here is the calling card. The ball really explodes off his bat like few in this class, with plus power in games and some elite exit velocities when he really gets a hold of one. Meanwhile, the hit tool is fringier as he can swing through quality stuff in the zone and has a tendency to chase offspeed pitches. If he's going to tap his power consistently against pro pitching, he'll need to shore up the approach a little bit. He's very physical with a sturdy 6' frame, with good feel for his body to stick behind the plate long term. The actions themselves are a bit raw, but he should be able to iron it out and become a power hitting, bat-first catcher. He also didn't turn 21 until after the draft, making him very young for a college junior and giving him extra time to refine his game on both sides of the ball. Doing so could earn him every day playing time in Seattle. Caron has taken just fine to pro pitching so far, slashing .300/.378/.400 with one home run and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio through eleven games at Low A Modesto.

5-154: RHP Charlie Beilenson, Duke {video}
Slot value: $431,400. Signing bonus: $25,000 ($406,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Still needing to save money from the Ryan Sloan pick, the Mariners picked up another senior sign reliever in Charlie Beilenson. He spent four years at Brown, but threw just 40 innings over those four years after losing 2020 to COVID and 2021 to the Ivy League voluntarily cancelling the season. Transferring to Duke for the 2023 season, he finally had his big breakout in 2024 when he was one of the best relievers in the country. As you might expect, he's extremely advanced and has a chance to move quickly through the minors. His low 90's fastball touches 95, but he leans heavily on his splitter to generate a ton of swing and miss. He also shows a tight slider and can split the difference with his fastball by utilizing a cutter, giving him a full array of weapons to mix and match against hitters. Beilenson's above average command is a separator as a reliever, while he sequences his stuff well and isn't afraid to go right after hitters. This complete profile didn't materialize overnight, though, and he'll turn 25 in the offseason. That makes him the oldest player in the entire draft and the only one born before the turn of the millennium. So far he has allowed one run over 3.2 innings at Low A Modesto, striking out four but walking five in the process.

6-183: RHP/C Grant Knipp, Campbell {video}
Slot value: $334,200. Signing bonus: $275,000 ($59,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #412.
If Josh Caron doesn't become the next Mike Zunino, Grant Knipp could give it a shot. He spent his freshman year at Alabama but did not see the field, so he transferred to Campbell and got better and better each season, culminating in a massive 2024 where he hit .402/.547/1.029 (not a typo) with 18 home runs in 29 game despite missing a month with a hamstring injury. He clocks in at a burly 6'2", 230 pounds an produces massive raw power from a quick right handed swing, absolutely pummeling baseballs with the best of them – you don't slug over 1.000 by accident and the exit velocity data backs that up. Pitchers simply refused to throw to him in 2024 if they were smart, and he didn't help himself by chasing at a fairly high clip. He still walked a very impressive 19.4% of the time, but he also swung through far too many pitches both inside and outside the zone. It's only going to get tougher against pro pitching, so Knipp will really have to shore up his approach and find pitches he can ambush to continue tapping that huge power. Sticking behind the plate will help the profile, but he's bulky behind the plate and will have to work hard to catch long term. If he moves to first base, he'll really have to get to that power in games consistently. Meanwhile, the Louisville native is also an extremely talented pitcher who could absolutely pitch in pro ball. He runs his fastball up to 98 and shows a semblance of command despite barely pitching at Campbell. He'll have to bring along his slider and hold that command together, but the arm talent is certainly there to pitch in a major league bullpen.

10-303: OF Anthony Donofrio, North Carolina {video}
Slot value: $181,100. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($131,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #449.
This is sneakily one of the better value picks of the draft. Like many players in this Mariners class, he's been around a long time, having begun his college career with Division III SUNY Cortland way back in 2019, where he didn't play much in his two seasons. He transferred to Stony Brook as a student but failed to make the baseball team, so he transferred again to Quinnipiac in 2022 and caught fire, hitting .355/.415/.623 with 23 home runs in two seasons. That caught UNC's attention, which he made his fourth home and slotted directly into the everyday lineup for a big season. Donofrio grades out well metrically, with above average raw power that played more to the gaps in games as he looked to knock the ball around the field. The approach is controlled aggression, as he'll chase out of the zone but makes adjustments and works counts well regardless, leading to an even strikeout to walk ratio that becomes all the more impressive when you consider the jump in competition he faced. Adding to the profile is his glove, as he's a plus runner who will be able to handle center field at the next level. Given that the bat might have some tweener indicators, that could serve as a big factor for him earning playing time at the major league level. Donofrio, a sixth year senior, is very old having turned 24 before the draft, but he's plenty advanced and has fought hard to be where he is. In just a few short years, the Long Island native rocketed from riding the bench at a D-III school, then getting cut from Stony Brook, to playing professional baseball in the Mariners' organization. So far he is slashing .241/.362/.362 with a 13/11 strikeout to walk ratio though eighteen games at Low A Modesto.

11-333: RHP Christian Little, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #328.
At barely 21 on draft day, Christian Little has to be one of the youngest senior signs in the history of the draft. Despite having pitched four years in college and exhausted his eligibility, he's younger than Mariners first round pick and true sophomore Jurrangelo Cijntje. Little has taken a winding road to get where he is. Back in 2021 he was arguably the top high school pitching prospect in the entire country, but reclassified before his senior season to enroll at Vanderbilt early. Pitching as just a 17 year old freshman, he immediately became the Commodores' midweek starter and showed well for his age. He continued to show well as a sophomore in 2022, but amid a crowded Vanderbilt rotation picture he transferred to LSU for his junior season. However, he did not progress in his two years in Baton Rouge and now finds himself with the Mariners in the eleventh round. Despite his name, Little is a big guy with big stuff. The fastball can sit mid 90's and touch 98-99 at peak, and while it can get straight, he's added a cutter at LSU to give hitters a different look. He throws a hard slider that flashes above average at best, but it can blend into his fringier curveball, while his changeup grades out as fringy. The 6'4" righty has tacked on about ten pounds a year at school and now clocks in at 235 pounds, leading to a bit of stiffness in his delivery. While he was a solid strike thrower in high school, he has never found the zone consistently in college with a career 12.7% walk rate that never dipped into single digits in any season. The Mariners may look to completely overhaul his delivery and pitch mix to help him reach his former ceiling. The arm strength and talent is still tremendous, and given that he only turned 21 shortly before the draft, he's younger than most college draftees. The change of scenery from Nashville to Baton Rouge did not help, and while both are premier pitching development destinations in college baseball, the Mariners have one of the best pro pitching development systems out there as well. He profiles as a reliever on the surface due to his lack of command and the effort in his delivery, but his size, strength, and the depth of his arsenal could lead the Mariners to bank on his youth and see if they can't figure something out as a starter.

13-393: 3B Brandon Eike, Virginia Commonwealth {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Brandon Eike gives the Mariners a big bat late in the draft. He spent two years at UNC, but barely saw the field with just eleven total at bats and transferred closer to home at VCU. There, the Rams have made much better use of his bat and he hit .363/.435/.637 with 25 home runs in 116 games over two seasons. He capped it off in a big way, absolutely losing his mind in the 2024 A-10 Tournament where he went 12-19 with five home runs in four games as VCU swept its way to a conference championship. Two games later, he had a five hit game against Evansville in the Greenville regional. He's not the tallest guy in the world, but he's very physical regardless with long arms and a leveraged 6' frame. That helps him consistently tap above average power in games without selling out. Eike hasn't faced the toughest pitching in the A-10 but showed well on the Cape last year, where he hit .309/.369/.455 with one home run and a nice 11/7 strikeout to walk ratio over fifteen games. He's a patient hitter that controls the zone well, both against ordinary A-10 pitching and against much better pitching on the Cape. That should ease his transition to pro ball and help him continue tapping his power as he moves up the rungs. Sticking at third base will be key, as he has seen time at first base and a move across the diamond would put make it more difficult to find at bats. The bat looks playable at third base but he'll need to find an extra gear to earn regular playing time at first base. Through eighteen games at Low A Modesto, he is slashing .261/.329/.406 with two home runs and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio.

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