RHP Carson Montgomery, Windermere HS [FL]
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DoB: 8/13/2002. Commitment: Florida State
Montgomery is an interesting one. The 6'2" right hander has been a known quantity for a while, combining projection, now ability, and youth for a very favorable long term outlook. Florida tends to be very strong on high school pitching and 2020 is no different, with Montgomery leading a particularly deep group of Sunshine State arms. He's fairly raw a a prospect, but the upside is considerable and places him firmly in that second tier of high school arms.
Montgomery has a very loose operation, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and not looking particularly strained while doing so. The pitch has good riding life up in the zone, and while he doesn't have that uber-projectable, Mick Abel-type of body, there is some moderate projection there and his loose right arm bodes well for velocity gains. He also flashes a plus, downer slider with late, sharp break, though the pitch is relatively inconsistent and needs a little refinement in pro ball. He has a changeup that he doesn't use much, but that is the case for many high school arms and the pitch could develop in any number of directions.
One major drawback in Montgomery's profile, and it's one that has dented his stuck just a bit, is his command. He's not wild, but he can lose his release point at times and that causes his command to fall below average at times. His command is therefore behind that of the other high school arms in the aforementioned "second tier," so you have to project on his number of other starter traits to make him a big league starter. His age works heavily in his favor, as his August birthday makes him one of the youngest players available, and it gives him that much more time to develop.
As for draft position, Montgomery might have slipped just a bit due to his command questions, and that probably puts him somewhere in the comp round/early second round range if he's signable. Of course, with a Florida State commitment in hand, he will likely have a high asking price, which could push him further even if he does sign. On talent alone though, he fits in that comp round or even late-first round range, with the upside of an impact starter. There is relief risk present with any high school arm, especially one with Montgomery's inconsistent command, but command aside, there is a lot about him that projects for a rotation spot. Consider him one of the bigger wild cards in this part of the draft.
Footage from the 2019 high school season, his junior year (better camera angle)
Summer footage
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