LHP Garrett Crochet, Tennessee
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DoB: 6/21/1999.
2020 Stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 6/0 K/BB in 3.1 IP
On the college side, Garrett Crochet's ceiling is as high as any pitcher out there, but he comes with considerably more risk than most other potential first round arms. He has very little track record, but you can't argue with the stuff, period. More of a projection arm early in his college career, his velocity has continued to rise and in the fall, he put on an absolute show. The pure stuff was the best scouts had seen from any arm in this loaded class, and just like that he was looking at a strong shot at the top ten picks. However, he missed his first three starts of the 2020 season with minor shoulder soreness, finally returning on March 7th against Wright State. In what turned out to be his only start of the season, he threw just 42 pitches, but he made them count with 3.1 shutout innings on two hits, no walks, and six strikeouts (half the batters he faced) against a pretty strong Raiders lineup.
Crochet's stock may be bouncing all over the place, but the stuff is for real. A 6'6" lefty with understandably long arms and legs, he sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has hit 100 quite a few times, and those long arms get some really nice angle on the ball that makes it tough to square up. His slider has continued to improve with sharp, late bite, making it one of the better breaking balls in the class. He also tosses a very good changeup that elicits plenty of swings and misses, a potential plus pitch in its own right, and together it adds up to a hitter's nightmare: baseballs moving very fast in multiple directions from a difficult angle. Additionally, while his command is not on the same level as guys like Emerson Hancock, Reid Detmers, or Max Meyer, he does a pretty decent job of throwing strikes especially for such a lanky guy with such loud stuff.
The risk isn't necessarily in the actual profile, but in the track record. Nobody faults him for a 5.02 ERA as a freshman in the SEC, though as a sophomore his 4.02 ERA and 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings don't quite match up to the other top arms in this class. He also wasn't a full time starter at any point over his first two seasons, leaving those 65 innings as his career high. That's because at the time he didn't quite have the stuff to stick in an SEC rotation, and his stuff only leapt forward in the fall. Of course, with the shoulder problem and the shortened season, he never got the chance to prove it was the real deal, but his stuff was reportedly excellent in that lone 2020 start. That leaves scouts in an interesting position – he has the build and stuff to make it as an impact starter in pro ball, but that's based off of just fall practice and one great spring start. Pass on him for a guy with more of a track record, and you could miss out on an ace, a left handed Nate Pearson. But no matter how a pitcher looks in practice, you just don't know what you're getting if you haven't seen a guy start over an extended period of time.
Crochet had a chance to push himself well into the top ten picks with a big spring, especially since the only problem with his profile was the lack of a track record, but more uncertainty could put him anywhere from the edge of the top ten to more of the back of the first round. There is huge upside to tap into as a legitimate potential ace, though as I said, pitchers are weird animals and we just don't know what he'll look like 100 innings or 150 innings into a big league season. He's certainly one of the most interesting arms in the class, and it will be fun to track his progress through the minors and into the bigs.
There's not much good, recent video available, so here's the best I could find:
US CNT intrasquad footage
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