RHP Tanner Houck (University of Missouri): 6'5", 215 lbs, born 6/29/1996
Overview
Fastball: 65. Slider: 50. Changeup: 50. Control: 55.
Tanner Houck, Mizzou's flamethrowing ace, is one of the more polarizing prospects in this draft. He consistently throws his fastball in the mid 90's, but his lack of developed secondaries keep him from truly being a top of the draft talent. He also throws from a low three quarters arm slot with possibly the longest arm path among potential Day One draftees. Houck has a solid track record at Missouri, as he has been a full time starter since the very beginning of his freshman year, and with good results. However, he is a bit unique among this year's top crop of college starts in that he hasn't broken out this year (Brendan McKay, J.B. Bukauskas, Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Clarke Schmidt pre-injury) or suffered through an up and down campaign (Kyle Wright, Alex Faedo, Alex Lange, Seth Romero); rather, Houck has been pretty much nothing more or nothing less than as expected, the only first-round hopeful to do so among college pitchers. However, because of Houck's polarizing nature, he could go pretty much anywhere in the first round or supplemental/competitive balance rounds, though he is unlikely to crack the top ten.
Strengths
Fastball. Houck cranks a sinking, running fastball in the low to mid 90's, even touching the upper 90's as a starter. It is a true plus pitch, rivaling the fastballs of Hunter Greene, J.B. Bukauskas, and Nate Pearson for the best in the draft. Interestingly enough, despite his unconventional mechanics that involve reaching way behind his back with his long arms, he commands the pitch well. Additionally, the 6'5" righty has proven to be extremely durable during his time at Missouri, nearing 300 innings for his career in less than three years. He's also fairly young for a college junior, as he won't turn 21 until more than two weeks after the draft, making him younger than draft-eligible sophomores Tristan Beck and Blaine Knight.
Weaknesses
At this point, the fastball is Houck's only MLB ready pitch. He can get by on blowing college hitters away with the heat, but he'll need to improve his slider and changeup to cut it as a big league starter. Houck throws his slider fairly regularly now, but it grades as average at best and lacks the bite to be useful in its current form. Couple his lack of a full arsenal with his irregular delivery, and many doubt his ability to remain a starter in pro ball. In my opinion, he's probably a reliever at the major league level, but if he can refine his off-speed pitches, he still could be a mid-rotation starter.
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