First 5 rounds: Logan Gilbert (1-14), Josh Stowers (2-54), Cal Raleigh (3-90), Michael Plassmeyer (4-118), Nolan Hoffman (5-148)
Also notable: Joey Gerber (8-238), Keegan McGovern (9-268), Beau Branton (28-838)
It's tough to know what to make of the Mariners' draft this year, as they leaned heavily on college players (no high schoolers until 11th round) and also shied away from more traditional names, taking guys that many would consider to be reaches. Due to a busy semester, my rankings were a bit shallow this year and only went up to 110, but the M's only took one player on that list despite having four picks in the top 118. For now, the talent pool looks light; we'll see in a few years.
1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (my rank: 15)
If there is one pick that doesn't look like a reach right off the bat, it's their first round pick. Stetson righty Logan Gilbert has been one of the most feared pitchers in college baseball the past few years, finishing it off this year by going 11-2 with a 2.72 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 163/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 112 innings for the Hatters. As you might be able to guess from the stats, the projectable 6'6" righty has nasty stuff, headlined by a low to mid 90's fastball, both a slider and a curveball, and a useable changeup. He's a bit inconsistent, but when he's right, he shows four above average pitches right now, all from an easy delivery and a whippy right arm. He's your classic mid-first round college pitching prospect, one with upper rotation projectability but also with a high enough floor that the risk associated with high ceiling picks isn't really present with him. On top of that, he dominated the Cape Cod League last summer to the tune of a 1.72 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 31/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 31.1 innings, proving at the very least that his stuff plays up very well against college baseball's best. There was some time in the early to middle part of the season where he was looking more like a back end of the first round guy as his stuff backed up just a hair, but he fixed it and was looking as good as ever towards the end of the season. He also just turned 21 in May, and he signed right at slot for just under $3.9 million.
2-54: OF Josh Stowers (unranked)
Josh Stowers put up great numbers all around at Louisville this year, slashing .336/.477/.559 with nine home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 37/52 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games. From a performance perspective, there's really not much more you can ask. I saw him play back in April, when he was slashing a much less impressive .276/.435/.440; he got hot soon afterwards. Listed at 6'1" and 200 lbs, he's a very skinny guy who likely is physically maxed out, and he'll rely on speed and on-base ability to get to the majors. I don't really see his power playing well at SAFECO Field, but his plate discipline (12.8% strikeout rate, 17.9% walk rate) should help his hit tool play up and he should have no problem posting on-base percentages north of .350, and he should have enough power to the point where he can hit double digit home runs most years. At his ceiling, he looks like a very valuable player, but his floor is low enough that I question this pick in the second round. He signed for $1.1 million ($187,800 below slot) and is making the Mariners look good so far in a tiny sample, slashing .348/.464/.609 with a home run, four stolen bases, and an 8/3 strikeout to walk ratio in seven games in the Short-Season Northwest League. He's still riding that hot streak from the end of the college season, so we'll see how he fares as he builds up the sample size.
3-90: C Cal Raleigh (unranked)
Raleigh could go a number of ways. The Florida State catcher had a huge bounce back season this year, following up an awful sophomore season (.227/.330/.398, 9 HR, 39/39 K/BB) with a big junior year, slashing .326/.447/.583 with 13 home runs and a 43/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games, mostly against quality ACC pitching. You see the combination of power and plate discipline, evidenced by an 18% walk rate, and from a switch-hitting catcher, that's even more valuable. Unfortunately, he's far from a lock to stick at catcher, as he's a below average defender with a good chance of moving to first base. On top of that, Raleigh's 15.1% strikeout rate was fairly reasonable, but he doesn't have the quickest swing and might struggle against higher velocities in the minors. Basically, he's neither a lock to hit or a lock to stick behind the plate, so it's a risky pick in the third round. The Mariners must be very confident in either his bat, glove, or both though to take him here. He has not signed yet, with pick value sitting at $632,700.
4-118: LHP Michael Plassmeyer (unranked)
From Max Scherzer to Tanner Houck, there have been plenty of pitchers to come out of the University of Missouri with three quarter arm slots. Up next is Michael Plassmeyer, a 6'2" lefty with an upper 80's fastball and average stuff that plays up due to spin rates and command. In 14 starts for Mizzou this year, he went 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 103/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. Obviously, that strikeout rate will come down in pro ball against better hitters, but the combination of deception and command from the left side give him a chance to stick as a #4 or #5 starter. If not, he could bump his fastball into the low 90's as a reliever and become a long man. He signed for $425,000, which is $44,400 below slot. So far in the Northwest League, he has thrown three shutout innings over two starts, striking out six and walking none.
Others: 5th rounder Nolan Hoffman is a 6'4" right handed reliever out of Texas A&M who put up a 1.24 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 51/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 innings for the Aggies this year. A&M dropped him down to a sidearm/submarine slot this year, which has paid huge dividends, and he could move through the minors quickly. 8th rounder Joey Gerber is another reliever, putting up a good season at Illinois (3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 45/14 K/BB in 28.2 IP). He has a high effort delivery with a short arm path, throwing his fastball in the low to mid 90's and setting hitters down with a good slider. His command comes and goes, but that's not as important as a reliever compared to for starters. 9th rounder Keegan McGovern improved in each of his four years at Georgia, capping it off with a huge senior season where he slashed .319/.431/.644 with 18 home runs and a 46/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games. As a corner outfielder, his bat will have to carry him, but he proved he can crush SEC pitching and he could get to the majors fairly quickly if he makes enough contact. The Mariners already pushed him to Class A Clinton, where he already crushed two home runs in his first seven games against guys who have been in the minors a lot longer than he has. 28th rounder Beau Branton was barely noticeable on the Stanford roster for his first three years, and not just because he's 5'7". He slashed .220/.306/.256 as a freshman in 2015 then played just 29 games over the next two seasons, but he broke out for a .361/.440/.428 line, a 27/19 strikeout to walk ratio, and his first collegiate home run in 2018. His power projection is non-existent, but he's a scrappy hitter who can get on base and play a few positions in the field. He likely never gets past AA, but it's a fun profile.
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