Wednesday, July 24, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies

Full list of draftees

The Phillies had a pretty straightforward draft strategy, especially early on: speed, speed, and more speed. Each of their first three picks are not only plus runners, but double-plus runners who can fly with the very fastest in pro baseball. Put Dante Nori, Griffin Burkholder, and John Spikerman in the system with Justin Crawford, himself one of the fastest runners in the minors, and you've got a lot of speed in those outfields. Overall, they targeted players with strong metric profiles at the plate as well. I find this to be a very intriguing class and given the limited draft capital that comes from drafting at the back of every round without any extra picks, I like the value they pulled here. It's a good draft for Sam Fuld and co.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-27: OF Dante Nori, Northville HS [MI] {video}
Slot value: $3.23 million. Signing bonus: $2.50 million ($728,300 below slot value).
My rank: #68. MLB Pipeline: #48. Baseball America: #80.
Dante Nori represents one of the more interesting picks of the first round. The son of NBA assistant coach Micah Nori, Dante was a well-known name on the prep circuit and has been one of the class's more consistent bats for a long time now. Nori is a very polished hitter who takes professional at bats, making plenty of hard contact and shooting line drives around the field with ease and intention. Although undersized at 5'10", he is filled out pretty well and understands himself as a hitter enough to turn on the ball for average power to the pull side, making for a pretty complete offensive profile. Meanwhile, the Detroit-area native may be primarily known for his plus-plus speed that makes him a weapon both on the bases and in the outfield, where he could eventually become a Gold Glove center fielder. As it turns out, the only real drawback in this profile is Nori's age – he's set to turn 20 in October, making him the oldest high school player I have ever come across and older than most college freshmen. In that sense, the fact that he looks like a man amongst boys should be less surprising. Still, Nori's combination of polish and speed would be impressive at any age, and the Phillies will hope they can fast track their center fielder of the future. Most projections had Nori in the second round range rather than the first, so the Phillies were able to cut a deal for more than $700,000 below slot value to keep him away from a Mississippi State commitment.

2-63: OF Griffin Burkholder, Freedom HS [VA] {video}
Slot value: $1.35 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($1.15 million above slot value).
My rank: #53. MLB Pipeline: #54. Baseball America: #50.
Griffin Burkholder signed for an identical bonus to Dante Nori, so he'll head to Philadelphia instead of to West Virginia where he had been committed. While Nori is more polished, Burkholder has the higher ceiling with electric physical tools. The Northern Virginia native stands out for the plus power he generates from a ferocious right handed swing. It's a fairly short and simple operation, but he gets his hands going so quickly and transfers that power so effectively that he can effortlessly produce that pop. At this point, the barrel accuracy isn't quite there as he's not always on time or on plane, but he looked better in that regard this spring, takes good at bats as it is, and rose up boards accordingly. Meanwhile, like Nori he is a plus-plus runner who can fly around the bases, and he's currently learning to more effectively apply that speed in the outfield. Nori's polish probably gives him the edge in center field, but Burkholder has every chance to take that opportunity should he out-swing the Michigander. Between Burkholder, Nori, and top prospect Justin Crawford, the Phillies could end up with the speediest outfield in the majors in the near future. Burkholder's power stands above both of them and gives him real superstar potential if he can clean up the rough edges on his game. Like Nori, he's old for the class and will turn 19 before the regular season is over, though he's still more than ten months younger.

3-100: OF John Spikerman, Oklahoma {video}
Slot value: $730,500. Signing bonus: $672,500 ($58,000 below slot value).
My rank: #135. MLB Pipeline: #126. Baseball America: #146.
Make it three elite runners in a row, why not? Dante Nori's savings covered most of Griffin Burkholder's bonus, but they're still in the red so John Spikerman is a slight cost saver while still providing some upside. He was good not great over his first two seasons at Oklahoma, then got off to a red hot start in 2024 before breaking his hamate bone in March. Returning a month later, he picked up where he left off and finished with an impressive season all told. Spikerman, as mentioned, stands out for his plus-plus speed, which, and you guessed it, could make him a plus defender in center field. Always speed first, his bat has taken a step forward recently as well. The Houston-area native makes a ton of contact and has really cut his strikeout rate, with is 8.6% mark representing elite territory. It's mostly line drive contact at this point, and while he's pretty slim at 6', 190 and doesn't project to add much more juice, he does produce sneakily solid exit velocities and may be able to get to occasional double digit home run totals. The ultimate projection is likely 8-12 home runs per season at peak. Because he makes so much contact, he rarely walks, though he's not overly aggressive at the plate either and will still make pitchers come to him. It's probably a fourth outfielder profile with a bit more upside if he learns to lift the ball better, and his center field defense will certainly help the bat profile better. Expect him to move somewhat quickly through the system.

4-130: 3B Carson DeMartini, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: $545,400. Signing bonus: $545,400.
My rank: #96. MLB Pipeline: #93. Baseball America: #63.
Carson DeMartini represents a break in the pattern after three straight elite runners to start the draft, instead representing a pure power bat. He immediately jumped into the starting lineup at Virginia Tech and slashed .341/.452/.659 with 15 home runs as a true freshman, earning Freshman All-American honors at numerous publications, then continued to produce with a big sophomore season in 2023. He set a career high with 21 home runs in 2024, but his contact numbers regressed and he fell to the fourth round after beginning the season with a second round projection. Pulling the camera out, DeMartini does almost everything well at the plate. He has above average raw power, but it plays up to plus in games because he is adept at elevating the ball with authority. He can turn on the ball at will or drive it out the other way, but either way he is making his best contact when he gets the ball in the air and that means a lot of home runs. DeMartini also has a keen eye at the plate, bringing a patient approach in addition to strong pitch recognition ability. In one 24 hour period against Louisville early in the season, I watched him homer on a left handed fastball, a left handed slider, a right handed changeup, a right handed slider, and a left handed curveball. If that's not an impressive display of power and pitch recognition, I don't know what is. Unfortunately, there is one glaring flaw in this profile, and that is pure bat to ball. It might be a 30. He swings and misses way too much, including in the strike zone, giving him the second lowest contact rate (64%, ahead of Jared Jones) and the third highest highest strikeout rate (27.7%, ahead of Dakota Jordan and Rodney Green) out of 73 college hitters on my draft list. DeMartini is very streaky at the plate, and while he's too disciplined to look "lost" at the plate, there are times where it just seems like every swing is coming up empty. Philadelphia will have to find a way to remedy that as the stuff he faces gets tougher and tougher in pro ball, but between the power, patience, ability to elevate, and pitch recognition, he has a lot going for him as a hitter. Defensively, the Virginia Beach native has been pretty steady at third base and has enough arm strength to stick there. He may never be better than fringy to average over there, but he's not a liability either. If not third base, his below average speed will push him to first base or left field. The Phillies technically drafted him as a shortstop, but that seems like a stretch.

5-162: OF Carter Mathison, Indiana {video}
Slot value: $399,600. Signing bonus: $447,500 ($47,900 above slot value).
My rank: #184. MLB Pipeline: #204. Baseball America: #227.
Carter Mathison is an interesting ballplayer who can impact the game in a lot of ways. A three year starter at Indiana, he like DeMartini regressed a little bit in 2024 but continued to show the tools that teams like the Phillies covet. Like DeMartini, he's a very patient hitter that rarely chases, leading to high walk rates and an excellent .410 on-base percentage in the Cape Cod League last summer. It's a twitchy, leveraged 6'2" frame that helps him get to above average power in games, having blasted 42 home runs in three years in Bloomington, though that power didn't really show up on the Cape with wood bats where he slugged just .296. With fringy bat to ball skills, I'm a bit concerned that he may be more of a mistake hitter, so it's not a given that he'll continue to hit for impact in pro ball. The power and patience are there, though, so he's not far off from where he needs to be. Meanwhile, the Fort Wayne native is an above average runner and a plus defender in center field, which buys his bat plenty of slack, especially given that he's a left handed hitter. While he may never hit enough to play every day, Mathison seems like a very nice option as a fourth outfielder who can play all three outfield positions.

7-222: OF Joel Dragoo, Presbyterian {video}
Slot value: $244,300. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($21,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #441.
It was truly a banner year for Presbyterian College, the smallest college by enrollment in Division I. For the first time in school history, multiple players heard their names drafted, and while Daniel Eagen became the school's highest ever draft pick as a third rounder to the Diamondbacks this year, Joel Dragoo is the third highest ever drafted as a seventh rounder. He has steadily gotten better in his three seasons in Clinton, finishing with a banner year in 2024 in which he earned Big South Player of the Year honors. Dragoo has a very natural right handed swing with quick hands and sneaky average power, which he can access to all fields without selling out. He also takes pretty good at bats and makes decent enough contact, though the contact rates may tick back as he faces better pitching in pro ball. The approach should lead to healthy walk rates with moderate in-game power. The East Texas native is also a pretty decent runner who can hold his own in center field, though given all the speed in the Phillies' minor league outfields, he'll probably slide over to a corner. The upside here is that of a fourth outfielder who can do a little bit of everything on both sides of the ball.

9-282: RHP Marcus Morgan, Iowa {video}
Slot value: $188,200. Signing bonus: $185,700 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #168. MLB Pipeline: #247. Baseball America: #179.
Marcus Morgan is another prospect with a lot going for him but some fatal flaws as well. He intrigued scouts enough during a strong sophomore season in 2023 to earn his way into the Cape Cod League, pushing his way into top two round consideration. However, he struggled mightily in 2024 and finished with a 7.45 ERA, dropping down to the ninth round. Morgan is very interesting. His fastball sits in the low 90's with running and riding action, and he complements it with a full arsenal of secondary stuff. His tight slider is his best offspeed, while he also shows a cutter, curveball, and changeup that can all get hitters out even if none stand out as plus. Morgan's differentiator comes from his low three quarters arm slot that gives him a very low release point, even though his stuff plays like it's coming from a higher slot. It's a very unique release point/movement combination, which if developed correctly could really give hitters fits. At this point, though, his well below average command holds him back. He has a career walk rate of 19.2% that hasn't improved during his time at Iowa, and he walked ten of the forty hitters he faced on the Cape as well. Morgan has a loose delivery that doesn't require much effort, but he simply lacks feel for repeating his release point and gets scattered extremely often. The Phillies have had success with two other "zero command"-type arms in Griff McGarry and George Klassen, though McGarry and Klassen were noted for their massive fastball velocity while Morgan is special due to his unique movement. Still, there is somewhat of a blueprint there and Morgan could still become an impact arm.

15-462: RHP Luke Gabrysh, St. Joseph's {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
It was a banner year for eastern Pennsylvania talent this year, headlined by names like Nick Kurtz (Lancaster), Trey Yesavage (Boyertown), and Luke Holman (Sinking Spring) among many others, and while none of those top names wound up in Philadelphia, the Phillies did bring on a local kid in the fifteenth round. Luke Gabrysh is from unincorporated northern New Castle County, Delaware, having attended Concord High School just a few hundred yards from the Pennsylvania border. A diehard Phillies fan growing up, he moved twenty miles up to the city to attend St. Joseph's where he has served as a reliever for three years. The numbers have been unremarkable; he finished his career with an 8.13 ERA over 68.2 innings against mediocre competition and never had a season with a 20% strikeout rate. The Phillies, however, love the stuff. Gabrysh sits in the low 90's with his fastball and reaches 95 with running action. His slider shows great sweeping action and could be an above average pitch in time, though he lacks consistent feel for it at this point and doesn't always land it for strikes. The 6'3" righty has long arm action and creates a wide release point from a three quarters arm slot, giving hitters a bit of a different look. His command improved considerably during his time in Philadelphia and while it's still fringy, he's trending in the right direction. Gabrysh looks to be a fastball/slider reliever wit ha chance for more as he gets under the organization's tutelage.

19-582: LHP Erik Ritchie, East Carolina {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $112,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Make that two hometown kids for the Phillies. Erik Ritchie grew up in Telford, Pennsylvania and attended Souderton Area High School (alma mater of Jamie Moyer) in northern Montgomery County, about 26 miles north of Center City. After redshirting his freshman year in 2022, he like Luke Gabrysh has pitched to unremarkable results and finishes his two years at ECU with a 5.94 ERA over 53 innings, mostly as a reliever. There's very little information or video out there on him, but we'll do our best. Ritchie is well built at 6'1", 210 pounds, utilizing a high leg kick, a bit of a lean back towards third base, and a bit of a longer arm action. All of that creates plenty of deception and makes his stuff difficult to pick up, but it also hurts his strike throwing ability and he ran a 17.8% walk rate in 2024. He's a fastball/curveball guy that will need to improve his control significantly to cut it in pro ball.

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