Sunday, July 28, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: New York Yankees

Full list of draftees

There was no secret to the Yankees' strategy this year: college pitching, college pitching, and more college pitching. Each of the team's first seven picks were college arms from either the SEC or the ACC, though they certainly mixed up profiles within that demographic. Greysen Carter and his 103 MPH fastball with zero command represent one extreme, while Gage Ziehl and his pitchability/makeup over stuff profile represent the other (though I don't want to sell him short – he did hit 97). Many pitchers of course fell in between, with New York looking for strong combinations of stuff and physicality, hoping to bring in the next generation of starting pitchers.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-26: RHP Ben Hess, Alabama {video}
Slot value: $3.33 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($585,400 below slot value).
My rank: #44. MLB Pipeline: #44. Baseball America: #38.
This was a bit of a surprising pick to start things off for New York, but Ben Hess brings considerable upside for a college arm and saved the team over half a million dollars against their bonus pool. After showing well as a freshman at Alabama in 2022, he impressed scouts with a red hot start to 2023 but got shut down with a flexor strain after seven starts. Fully healthy in 2024, he had an up and down season but showed enough ups to still sneak into the back of the first round. Hess is a mountain of a man at 6'5", 255 pounds, and he looks it. The arm talent is undeniable, beginning with a fastball that sits in the mid 90's and has reached as high as 99 with impressive riding action. His plus curveball misses a ton of bats with power two-plane break, while his slider gives him another above average breaking ball. He has shown feel for a solid changeup at times, flashing above average, though he hasn't found it consistently in games. Everything plays up further because Hess creates great extension with his big frame and gets a lower release than you'd expect for his size, making for as complete of a profile as you're going to find, metric-wise. Of course, there's more to pitching than just stuff and size, and that's where the questions come in. The Downstate Illinois native has battled injuries throughout his career, with 2024 being his first fully healthy season in a long time. Meanwhile, and I would wager this is highly correlated, his command has fluctuated. He has shown average, even above average command at times, but he was much too inconsistent in that regard in 2024 and pessimists may put a fringe-average grade there. Personally, although he was technically healthy in 2024, I think he needs to string together a little more consistent time on the mound to really settle back into that groove after never throwing more than 36.1 innings in a season before. He'll certainly need to watch his conditioning going forward to withstand a pro workload, and if he proves durable, he moves well enough on the mound to get back to average, if not above average command in the long run. Combine that with his wicked stuff, and he could be, dare I say, an ace at the big league level. A lot does need to go right to get there, though.

2-53: RHP Bryce Cunningham, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $1.72 million. Signing bonus: $2.3 million ($576,300 above slot value).
My rank: #46. MLB Pipeline: #63. Baseball America: #39.
After grabbing Ben Hess for an under slot deal at #26 worth roughly the value of the #33 pick, they went almost exactly as high above slot value to grab Bryce Cunningham in the second round at #53, where his $2.3 million bonus was worth roughly the value of the #41 pick. Cunningham is a bit of a polarizing prospect, but an interesting one with upside for sure. After working as a swingman in 2022 and 2023, he moved to the rotation full time in 2024 to inconsistent results, producing some downright dominant outings while faltering in others. With Cunningham, it all starts with the fastball. He sits comfortably in the low to mid 90's and has reached back for as much as 99 in short stints while topping out closer to 97 in longer outings. Thrown with pretty good extension and a pretty low release point compared to his 6'5" frame, the pitch's above average riding action helps the fastball play up to plus, though its results were more good than great against top SEC hitters. He relies heavily on an excellent changeup with tremendous running action, a pitch with true plus potential as well. His slider is a bit behind, coming in with short, tight break that can tie hitters up with its mid 80's velocity but which overall projects as just a fringy to average pitch. It's a pretty compact, repeatable delivery from a big, durable frame, though his control is ahead of his command and like quite a few top Vanderbilt pitchers before him, he can get hit a little bit in the zone if he falls behind in the count or gets too comfortable. The Yankees are buying the size, special arm strength, and changeup here, with the hopes that they can figure something out with the breaking ball. If he can take a step forward in that regard while holding onto average command, he's a legitimate mid-rotation starting pitcher. Cunningham will look to continue what's become a line of Yankees pitchers from small towns in Alabama, joining David Robertson, Chase Whitley, and Clay Holmes off the top of my head.

3-89: RHP Thatcher Hurd, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $838,900. Signing bonus: $837,400 ($1,500 below slot value).
My rank: #97. MLB Pipeline: #114. Baseball America: #128.
Thatcher Hurd feels like a very Yankees pick. Considered a potential second round pick out of high school in Southern California, he instead removed himself from the 2021 draft so that he could attend UCLA alongside Gage Jump, a fellow Southern Californian and arguably the top high school pitcher in the country to spurn the draft that year. Both ended up having a change of heart, as Hurd transferred to LSU after his freshman season and Jump followed him to Baton Rouge a year later. Hurd was uneven in his sophomore year in 2023 but showed enough to push himself into the first round conversation, then struggled in 2024 and lost his spot a crowded Tigers rotation. The 6'4" righty has big stuff. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has been up to 98 in short stints, at times showing big time riding life but at others flattening out a bit. His best trait is his feel for spin, with a pair of power breaking balls that flash plus at best with hard bite, though the slider is more consistent than the curveball and he didn't always show the feel to execute either of them how he wanted to in 2024. At this point, he doesn't really use his changeup. Hurd has a pretty simple delivery but doesn't always repeat it, leading to below average command and a 12.7% walk rate over the past two seasons. His stuff gets more hittable as he falls behind in the count and leaves it over the plate, which lead to his 6.55 ERA this year. The Yankees are buying his power fastball and excellent ability to snap off a hard breaking ball, hoping they can mold the rest of the profile into a starting pitcher or perhaps a power reliever. This profile reminds me a little bit of 2022 sixth rounder Chase Hampton, who is progressing nicely in the Yankees' system.

4-119: RHP Gage Ziehl, Miami {video}
Slot value: $606,700. Signing bonus: likely to be around slot value, perhaps slightly above.
My rank: #77. MLB Pipeline: #89. Baseball America: #110.
This might be my favorite pick in the Yankees' class if they can get him for a reasonable bonus. Gage Ziehl is an Upstate New Yorker, hailing from the outer Rochester suburb of Macedon, where he attended Penfield High School and earned an eleventh round selection by the Cubs as a senior. After spending three years at Miami and amassing 227.2 innings for the Hurricanes, he'll come back home to the Empire State. The. fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched 97 with solid riding life, playing up a bit from a somewhat lower release point. He has great feel for his cutter/slider, which he can tighten up around 90 or manipulate to get more sweep in the mid 80's, which is still plenty hard. It's an above average pitch. There's also a changeup in there with some promise, but he doesn't use it too much just yet. For Ziehl, everything plays up because he pounds the strike zone with conviction, going right after hitters and challenging them with his solid stuff. He shows plus command on top of that, which more than makes up for his stuff being more above average than plus, so he can really execute in the zone. Scouts rave about his competitiveness as well. Sturdily built at 6', 225 pounds, he lacks projection but still looks like a bona fide #3/#4 starting pitcher who can eat plenty of innings, which he's done with 31 starts and 192 innings over the past two seasons at Miami. This pick somewhat reminds me of 2021 second rounder Brendan Beck given Ziehl's pitchability and competitive fire, though while Beck looked brilliant in his short healthy stint in 2023, he has battled injuries for a long time and has just those 34 pro innings to his name.

5-152: RHP Greysen Carter, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $440,100. Signing bonus: $440,100.
My rank: #181. MLB Pipeline: #226. Baseball America: #161.
Greysen Carter is virtually the opposite of Gage Ziehl as a pitcher. While Ziehl has been as steady as they come as a stalwart member of the Miami rotation, Carter was once cut from the Vanderbilt team because he simply could not throw strikes. He worked his way back onto the team and has since spent the last two seasons serving as a swingman, albeit to uneven results with the same poor command. Carter's stuff is undeniable. The fastball sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 103, and it seems like it's coming even harder than that because he gets over six and a half feet of extension. He rips off a power curveball that looks like an above average pitch when he locates it, but he lacks feel to land it in the zone. The changeup, perhaps unsurprisingly, comes in a little too firm and again he lacks true feel for it. The command, as mentioned, is well below average and he has walked nearly 20% of the hitters he's faced in college, with his 16.4% rate in 2024 representing a career-best. Carter did throw one gem against Missouri in late March, allowing just four baserunners and one unearned run over 8.1 innings while striking out eleven, but that turned out to be his only outing of the season of greater than four innings. Carter's arm strength does not grow on trees. In fact, it really doesn't grow anywhere. The Yankees are getting a truly special arm talent here, albeit one in need of significant refinement. He's probably a reliever when it's said and done but you never know with guys like this – he lacks the command and secondaries, but at 6'4", 235 pounds, it's not like the Denver-area product lacks the physicality or arm strength to start.

6-181: LHP Griffin Herring, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $339,600. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($457,900 above slot value).
My rank: #165. MLB Pipeline: #157. Baseball America: #172.
Griffin Herring, a draft-eligible sophomore who turned 21 in May, signed for more than double slot value in the sixth round for third round money (close to pick #92). He showed well out of the LSU bullpen as a freshman in 2023, then was quietly one of the most reliable arms in the SEC in 2024 while again pitching out of the bullpen due to LSU's crowded rotation. Although he's a two-pitch bullpen guy, he does have a good chance to start in pro ball. The fastball is not overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and topping out around 95 with more run than ride, though it plays up because he gets above average extension towards the plate. He throws an above average slider nearly as much as his fastball, which itself plays up because he has great feel to locate it to both sides of the plate. Herring is sturdily built at 6'2" and repeats his delivery well, showing above average command of both pitches and effectively maximizing his results with his pitching savvy. If the Yankees want him to start, he'll have to add a changeup and prove his command can hold together in longer stints.

7-211: RHP Wyatt Parliament, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: $265,800. Signing bonus: $199,350 ($66,450 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #478.
The Yankees got another New Yorker here, and Wyatt Parliament comes from wayyy upstate. He hails from tiny La Fargeville, population 733, which is located eighty miles north of Syracuse and fifteen miles north of Watertown/Fort Drum, close to the Canadian border. He began his career at Rutgers, where he served as both a starter and a reliever but struggled with consistency. Transferring to Virginia Tech after two seasons, he struggled to a career-worst 7.63 ERA in 2024 but his peripherals point to the potential for much stronger performance. So does the stuff. His fastball sits in the low 90's and has gotten up to 97, but it plays way above its velocity with riding and running life and a low release point. In fact, it's probably one of the sneakier fastballs in the class. He also shows a solid slider with some sweep, which plays well when he locates it but too often gets hit when he leaves it over the plate. At this point, he doesn't show much of a changeup. Parliament has long arm action and a three quarters arm slot, creating both a funky look and a much lower release point than most pitchers at hist 6'4" stature. Additionally, while many fastballs can run like his in that slot, few ride as much as his and that makes it really tough to square up the fastball up in the zone. Additionally, Parliament pounds the strike zone, showing average command of both his fastball and slider, though the control is ahead of the command. To top it off, he's extremely young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until January, making him nearly nine months younger than true sophomore Griffin Herring. I think the 7.63 ERA was both a fluke and potentially a usage issue and that he could become a legitimate fastball/slider reliever for the Yankees.

11-331: RHP Mack Estrada, Northwest Florida State JC {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: likely well above that that if he signs.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #273.
$115,900. It's unclear whether Mack Estrada will sign, but it appears that the Yankees have some money to offer him against a Florida State commitment. With only fourth rounder Gage Ziehl, Estrada, and 20th rounder Cole Royer unsigned, the Yankees have $722,600 left in their bonus pool and over $1.1 million if they use the 5% overage. Assume Ziehl signs for slot value and those numbers become $115,900 and $406,725, respectively, so the Yankees could likely offer Estrada around half a million dollars so long as Ziehl doesn't go too far above slot value. Estrada showed well as a freshman at Northwest Florida State, especially early in the season, though he faded down the stretch a bit. While the fastball touched 96 early on, it settled more in the low 90's as the year progressed, coming in with heavy, late running life. He tosses a solid slider with great finish to miss bats, while his changeup is coming along as well. With long arm action and a bit of a raw delivery, he struggled with command at times as well. Estrada has projection remaining in his 6'4" frame and will need to build up his durability in order to start in pro ball, but the Yankees think they can get him there as he has both the stuff and size to start.

14-421: 2B Austin Green, Texas Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #303.
The Yankees picked up a well-rounded bat here in the fourteenth round. Austin Green began his career at Weatherford JC in Texas, then after two seasons transferred to Texas Tech where he was one of the Red Raiders' best hitters in 2023 and 2024. While he lacks a carrying tool, he also lacks many true weaknesses. With a compact 6' frame, the switch hitter unleashes a pair of simple but powerful swings to drive the ball to all fields effectively. He has average raw pop that he taps in games, with the potential for 10-15 home runs per season at peak. He also makes plenty of contact and takes professional at bats, helping him run a minuscule 9.7% strikeout rate in 2024. He won't be a star or hit fourth at Yankee Stadium, but it's the kind of profile that can sneak up on you and earn every day playing time towards the bottom of the lineup if he keeps hitting up the ladder. The East Texas native is also a solid runner who has played mostly second base and right field during his time in Lubbock, with the ability to handle left field as well for the Yankees. The defensive versatility will help as he looks for a place to sneak his bat into the lineup in New York. He's a senior sign, but he's on the younger side for that class and only turned 22 in May.

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