Friday, July 19, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Texas Rangers

Full list of draftees

The Rangers clearly had a type they were searching for. In their first three picks, they took three consecutive bat-first, left handed, sophomore hitters from blue chip programs, and all three had alliterative names to boot. There's a lot of offensive firepower in this draft class, and indeed the Rangers stuck with hitters through the first nine rounds before pivoting to mostly arms in rounds 10-20. It's early, so tenth rounder Jake Jekielek is the only player I know of who has signed, but it appears that Texas played its bonus pool pretty straightforward.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-30: C Malcolm Moore, Stanford {video}
Slot value: $2.97 million. Signing bonus: likely to be near slot value.
My rank: #33. MLB Pipeline: #26. Baseball America: #31.
The Rangers kicked things off with a pretty interesting bat. Malcolm Moore was one of the top high school hitters in the country in 2022, earning interest throughout day one of the draft and ranking 70th on my board, but opted to attend Stanford instead. After hitting .311/.386/.564 during a big freshman season, he seemingly took a step back in 2024 when he started slowly. However, his under the hood numbers showed that he was a victim of bad luck, and he began to turn things around as the year went on. The final numbers weren't overly impressive – .255/.414/.553, 16 HR – but the metrics are. Moore employs a unique setup at the plate, starting open at almost a 45 degree angle towards the pitcher, before fluttering his front foot back with about seven hundred to taps and rocking his hands back to prepare for his swing. Despite all the movement, which he does tone down a bit with two strikes, he's extremely hitterish in the box and makes a ton of contact. With a strong approach to boot, you could argue he has a borderline plus hit tool. Beyond that, Moore's sturdy 6'2" frame packs plenty of strength and his loose left handed swing translates that into average raw power, which he taps plenty in games due to his strong feel for the barrel. He's a bit behind defensively, as he's not very fluid behind the plate and his fringy arm strength means he has to take time and load up for his throws down to second base. There's a pretty good chance he moves out to first base or left field, where he might be a below average defender. All the value is tied to the bat, and it's a hit over power profile for my money, but he's an impressive young man with a good head on his shoulders and was still 20 years old on draft day, giving him plenty of time to hone that defense and prove critics wrong. Still, he should hit plenty enough to profile at a different position.

2-65: OF Dylan Dreiling, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $1.29 million. Signing bonus: likely to be near slot value.
My rank: #75. MLB Pipeline: #72. Baseball America: #73.
Another pick, another big left handed sophomore bat. Dylan Dreiling comes from Hays, Kansas, a mid-sized town about 250 miles west of Kansas City. He showed well in a part time role in 2023 before exploding for a huge 2024, capping it with a red hot run through in Omaha in which he slashed .542/.586/.958 in six games, homering in all three College World Series Finals games to win CWS MVP honors. Dreiling, like Moore, is a hitter first and foremost. He's only listed at 5'11" but packs a ton of strength into his shorter frame, giving him above average raw power that he has tapped more and more often in games. On top of that, he's a very disciplined hitter that takes good at bats and recognizes pitches he can turn on, leading to an excellent 17.5% walk rate in 2024. His overall approach has varied, at times showing more of an all-fields approach while more recently looking to drive the ball to the pull side, which has resulted in better in-game production but made him look a bit rough on outside pitches he can't get around. He'll look to find a happy medium in that regard. Additionally, while he assuaged some concerns in 2024, in the past he's had trouble against lefties and that will also be something to monitor going forward. Dreiling, also like Moore, is a fringy defender who won't provide much value out there. He's a decent runner who will likely end up in left field.

3-103: OF Casey Cook, North Carolina {video}
Slot value: $710,400. Signing bonus: potentially a bit below slot value.
My rank: #149. MLB Pipeline: #171. Baseball America: #164.
Again, yet another alliterative left handed hitter that looks like a professional in the box. Casey Cook comes from Freedom High School in Chantilly, Virginia, was limited by injuries during his freshman season at UNC, then watched his power explode from three home runs as a sophomore to 18 home runs as a junior. Cook doesn't have a carrying tool, but he's a very solid hitter all-around. He has excellent pitch recognition ability and has no issue picking up spin, enabling him to do damage against all pitch types. He combines a fairly patient approach with relatively high contact rates, though he did occasionally get into trouble in deeper counts and struck out nearly 20% of the time in 2024. Cook's raw power is fringe-average, which may be part of the reason he struggled to hit for impact in the Cape Cod League last summer (.196/.310/.278), but he's a smart hitter who knows how to deploy that power and make the most of it in games. I don't see an every day profile here, and with an average build at a list 6', 195 pounds, he's unlikely to grow into much more impact. However, he's a versatile defender who could see time at second base, third base, and the corner outfield spots in pro ball, which will give him every avenue to push his way through to a major league role. Cook is an average athlete whose arm may be stretched a little at third base or right field but should be able to get it done.

4-133: RHP David Hagaman, West Virginia {video}
Slot value: $530,400. Signing bonus: potentially a bit below slot value.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #183.
David Hagaman is a bit more off the radar, though credit to Baseball America for picking him up and ranking him inside the top 200. After redshirting his freshman year at West Virginia, Hagaman has served as a reliever the past two seasons, though he did complete five innings three times this year. That includes his best outing of the entire season, which occurred right in the Rangers backyard as the Mountaineers visited Oklahoma. Hagaman came in in relief of starter Tyler Switalski in the third inning and finished the game, tossing 6.2 innings of one run ball while striking out ten Sooners. He's mostly fastball/slider, with the former reaching 98 in short stints while settling in the low to mid 90's over longer outings and the latter showing hard vertical bite. It's a bit of an uptempo delivery but he controls it well, helping him effectively attack hitters in the zone and get ahead in counts often enough to force them to chase. Big and physical at 6'4", there's a chance the Rangers try the Jersey Shore native in the rotation, where he'll have to incorporate his changeup a bit more and prove he can hold his fringe-average command together over longer outings. It's not the world's most exciting pick, but the Rangers do get a physical power arm out of it.

5-165: SS Devin Fitz-Gerald, Stoneman Douglas HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $388,700. Signing bonus: likely a bit above slot value.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #218. Baseball America: #470.
Devin Fitz-Gerald, the Rangers' only high school pick that's expected to sign, comes with the polish of a college player. That's unsurprising given his bloodlines – his father, Todd, is the head coach at South Florida powerhouse Stoneman Douglas High School, while his older brother, Hunter, played at Old Dominion and is currently playing at High A in the Mariners' organization. Devin is a switch-hitting shortstop with the ability to make things happen on the field. Undersized at 5'10", he deploys a pair of whippy swings with natural loft that help him tap his fringy raw power consistently in games. He can get out front when his timing isn't quite right, but the bat to ball and adjustability in his swings is strong and he projects to make a lot of contact and get on base consistently at the pro level. Defensively, his actions on the dirt are deliberate and may not be explosive enough for shortstop, while his average arm may push him to second base in the long term. Still, he's a heady player all around who makes the most of his average physical ability and has a chance to turn himself into a utility type at the big league level. He's committed to NC State so his bonus demands could be high.

7-225: 3B Rafe Perich, Lehigh {video}
Slot value: $238,900. Signing bonus: likely to be near slot value.
My rank: #169. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #293.
On the surface, Rafe Perich may appear to be an ordinary day two pick with strong but not eye-popping performance at a low major school. He's hit over .300 in each of his three seasons at Lehigh but never hit more than six home runs in a season despite playing a weaker schedule, and he already turned 22 in May making him far older than most juniors. Sounds par for the course in the seventh round, right? But if you look under the hood, Perich is actually one of the most fascinating prospects in the entire class. His batted ball and swing decision metrics, quite frankly, are off the charts. There's massive juice in his bat, with a 90th percentile exit velocity over 109 miles per hour that grades out as easily plus. Meanwhile, he rarely ever whiffs, running contact rates over 88%, and he never chases either, doing so less than 16% of the time. Those are elite numbers that, when combined together, went unmatched in college baseball. So who is this guy? Perich is a switch hitter with an unusual setup at the plate, keeping his weight back before drifting into the pitch with a modified stride that almost serves to catch him as that weight releases forward, coiling the bat all the while before unfurling for his swing. He employs a line drive approach which sees him consistently scorch the ball either on the ground or on a line, often putting infielders into self-defense mode when the ball is hit directly at them but creating few opportunities for the ball to leave the yard. Going up against mediocre Patriot League pitching in 2024, he controlled the strike zone exceptionally well and rarely ever missed a good pitch, his only strikeouts (which were few and far between) coming when he got overly passive and dug himself into deep counts. Going forward, the Rangers will look for a way to help the eastern Pennsylvania native put more loft under the ball and take advantage of his prodigious raw power, while also helping him adjust to the steep step up in competition he'll see in pro ball. There's considerable upside here but Texas will have to unlock it. Meanwhile, he's an adequate defender at third base with average mobility, while his plus arm will help him make up for balls he takes longer to get to and gather. I'm very curious to see how this one goes.

19-585: LHP Cade Obermueller, Iowa {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: unlikely to sign.
My rank: #150. MLB Pipeline: #214. Baseball America: #176.
As a draft-eligible sophomore who was projected to go about a dozen rounds sooner, it's unlikely that Cade Obermueller signs here, instead most likely heading back to Iowa City for his junior season. He was well-known in high school but spurned pro offers to stay home and pitch for his hometown Hawkeyes, serving as a reliever as a freshman before jumping to the rotation as a sophomore. Undersized at 5'11", he stands out for an ultra low release out of a sidearm slot that provides a unique look to hitters. The fastball sits in the low 90's and reaches 97 in short stints with sinking and running action, while his sweeping slider dives across the plate and looks to be a plus pitch. While he showed well as a reliever on the Cape last summer (1.83 ERA, 35/11 K/BB in 19.2 IP), his command was shaky in the rotation and for that reason he looks mostly like a funky fastball/slider lefty sidearm reliever at this point, so returning to Iowa will give him a chance to throw more consistent strikes and showcase his nascent changeup a bit more. And if he does decide to sign, he was still 20 years old on draft day and could be a fun project.

20-615: C Mac Rose, McLennan JC [TX] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not signed yet.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Late round JuCo guys area always a coin flip on signability, but I don't see a four year commitment for Mac Rose so we will see. Rose is a local DFW guy out of Rockwall High School just east of Dallas, and he just put up a big season at McLennan JC in Waco. He's a left handed hitter with a compact operation in the box, showing a high contact, line drive approach that made him a tough matchup for any opposing pitcher down on the Texas JuCo circuit. There is some pop in the bat too and he brings a sturdy 6' frame, though it's mostly a line drive approach for now. He was listed as a two-way player on McLennan's roster, but did not see the mound in 2024.

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