The Cardinals had a very clear draft strategy this year, and it was very on-brand. They selected pitchers with six of their first eight picks, with all of those pitchers falling into the same category as feel-over-stuff types. Five of those six pitchers were 6'3" or taller, and all stand out for their aptitude for pitching and likelihood of cracking the major league rotation as three, four, or five starters. The only two non-pitchers taken in those first eight picks were power hitting outfielders, and second rounder Joshua Baez especially stands in contrast to those workhorse starting pitchers as a tooled up athlete. I really liked both those outfield picks (the other being Ryan Holgate), but I will say that aside from those two, there isn't much upside to be had in this draft. It was a really safe, risk-averse run for St. Louis. Although, they did have an interesting trend of drafting players who were young for the class, with three of their first four picks having June or July birthdays that some teams value, and that youth could help tap some hidden upside.
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1-18: RHP Michael McGreevy, UC Santa Barbara. My rank: #66.
This probably wasn't my favorite pick of the first round, but the Cardinals are still getting a very talented pitcher who has a good chance to be an impact arm for them. Michael McGreevy has steadily gotten stronger and stronger at UC Santa Barbara, putting up a strong 2.92 ERA and a 115/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings this spring. That tops off an excellent career in which he had a 2.33 ERA and a 194/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 189.1 innings overall. His fastball has ticked consistently into the low 90's now and touches 96-97, well up from where he was even a year ago. McGreevy adds a full set of secondaries, none of which are true swing and miss pitches, but the slider stands out as perhaps his best. Everything plays up because of his plus command that ranks among the best in the class, with a very repeatable delivery and consistent pitchers' counts. The 6'4" righty has been nitpicked, though, due to that lack of a plus pitch. His fastball is pretty straight and ordinary despite its above average velocity, so getting ahead and being able to keep hitters guessing is very important. The Southern California native was hit a bit harder by decent Big West competition than you'd expect, allowing more than a hit per inning as hitters punished his stuff when he missed over the plate. McGreevy's margin for error will be relatively slim in pro ball, at least as far as first rounders go. He has a good chance to reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter and will likely settle in as a #3 or #4 guy, with his late birthday (only turned 21 a few days before the draft) a positive factor. He signed for $2.75 million, which was about $730,000 below slot.
2-54: OF Joshua Baez, Dexter-Southfield HS [MA]. My rank: #23.
Ironically, Michael McGreevy ranks right around where Joshua Baez was picked, while Baez ranks right around where McGreevy was picked, at least on my board. Baez is one of the most physical players in the entire class, listed at an imposing 6'4" and 220 pounds with tools to match. He has tremendous raw power from a huge right handed hack that produces a ton of torque, absolutely pummeling baseballs into a powder. The Boston-area native shows strong plate discipline to go with that huge power, though at times he can still be prone to swinging and missing more because he's swinging out of his shoes than anything else. Baez is also a good athlete with an absolute cannon right arm, one which has been clocked up to 96-97 on the mound and could legitimately have gotten him drafted as a pitcher had the bat not been a factor. That should make him a plus defender in right field. Youth is yet another factor on his side, as he only turned 18 at the end of June and has plenty of time to figure out his game. The Cardinals will want to teach him that he can still hit 30+ home runs a year in the big leagues with a toned down approach, and that trusting his strength will be more effective against premium pitching than coiling up and letting it rip. If he can find a balanced approach at the plate, this could be a future star, though of course there's plenty of risk inherent in drafting a cold weather bat with swing and miss question marks of any sort. Baez signed for $2.25 million, which was roughly $910,000 above slot value, to forgo a Vanderbilt commitment. Through two games, he's picked up two singles in five at bats in the FCL.
CBB-70: OF Ryan Holgate, Arizona. My rank: #65.
Sixteen picks later, the Cardinals grabbed another power hitting outfielder, though Ryan Holgate is a more balanced hitter than Joshua Baez with perhaps a bit less physical prowess. Holgate has been one of the best hitters in the Pac-12 over the past two seasons, slashing .356/.437/.570 with 12 home runs and a 64/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 games since the start of 2020. He has a knack for finding the barrel, and that's a barrel that can really put a charge into the baseball on a consistent basis with both metal and wood bats. Previously more of a three true outcome guy, he dropped his strikeout rate from 26.3% as a freshman to 18.6% this year while maintaining his home run swing, though he can still swing and miss occasionally and it's probably an average hit tool. The Davis, California native cannot match Baez on defense, with an unremarkable overall game in the outfield that will likely see him end up as a serviceable left fielder. If he hits like he's capable of, which is to say 25-30 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages, the so-so defense will be an afterthought. Holgate signed for $875,000, which was $31,800 below slot value, and he went 2-4 with a home run in his Class A debut.
3-90: RHP Austin Love, North Carolina. My rank: #148.
Austin Love's strong redshirt freshman season in 2019 had area scouts looking forward to their Chapel Hill trips in 2020, but he couldn't quite build on his previous success and wound up undrafted that year. He hung around in mid-round conversations for most of 2021, sometimes showing early round stuff (such as a twelve strikeout, no walk performance against Clemson on March 12th) but getting hit around a little to much at other times (eight runs, seven earned two starts later against NC State). His stock got a late boost in May when he fired back to back complete games against Louisville and Georgia Tech, combining to strike out 24 along the way, and he finished the season with more ups than downs that led to a 3.71 ERA and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 innings. Traditional teams like the Cardinals fell in love with the profile, and it was enough for St. Louis to pop him in the top one hundred picks. Love attacks hitters with a low 90's fastball that he can dial up all the way to 98 when he needs to, and he holds that low 90's velocity deep into his starts. His slider shows above average with late bite, and he works in a very good changeup to round things out. Everything plays up because the Salisbury, North Carolina native attacks the strike zone and goes right after hitters, enabling his average command to play up as well. As with first rounder Michael McGreevy, there are questions about the life on his relatively straight fastball, and he's a year and a half older than his UCSB counterpart with less command. Of course, that's why McGreevy was a first round pick and Love is coming off the board here in the third. It's a classic back-end starter projection with a high probability of reaching the majors in some capacity, though it's hard to envision him as much more than a #4. The 6'3" righty signed for $600,000, which was $57,600 below slot value.
4-120: RHP Zane Mills, Washington State. Unranked.
Zane Mills is another high floor type that figures to be a back of the rotation starter. He put himself on the map with a strong run through the Northwoods League last summer, then showed reasonably well this spring with a 4.15 ERA and an 83/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings. Mills is a big, 6'4" righty with an easy delivery and above average command, already laying out that starting pitcher profile. His fastball sits in the low 90's, coming in from an overhand delivery with downward plane and sink. It's not your sexy bat-missing fastball, but he hits his spots with it and generates a lot of weak contact. The Portland native's slider is an average pitch, and he does show feel for a changeup that flashes above average. The fact that he turned 21 only a week before the draft elevates his profile and gives him extra time to take a step forward with his velocity or one of his secondaries, and given his command and durability, any uptick in stuff would be a big boon. The Cardinals will look for him to move relatively quickly through their system. Mills signed for $375,000, which was $103,300 below slot value.
5-151: RHP Gordon Graceffo, Villanova. Unranked.
Gordon Graceffo was excellent this spring at Villanova, where he pitched at least seven innings in nine of his eleven starts and at least six innings in all but one. In total, he put up a 1.54 ERA and an 86/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings, and while most of it came against mediocre competition, he did strike out twelve over eight innings against an NCAA Tournament-bound UConn team. Graceffo comes in with a low 90's fastball that's sitting a tick higher than it used to, dropping in an above average slider and changeup that he can fill up the strike zone with. Teams love his bulldog mentality on the mound and tireless work ethic, and the Cardinals believe he'll continue to trend up in their organization just as he has at Villanova. Given that he can throw three good pitches for strikes, the 6'4" righty has a chance to start, but he'll need probably need another tick of velocity on his fastball to do so because it's relatively straight and in the low 90's, won't miss many barrels. In relief, that stuff should naturally tick up. The North Jersey native signed for $500,000, which was $146,300 above slot value, and he has tossed 2.1 innings of one run ball with three strikeouts so far at Class A Palm Beach.
7-211: RHP Alec Willis, Regis Jesuit HS [CO]. My rank: #180.
With their eighth pick, the Cardinals handed out their third largest bonus of the draft to Alec Willis, a high school right hander out of Denver-area powerhouse Regis Jesuit High School. Willis was really trending up when the weather got warm in the Front Range, showing plenty of starter traits that teams covet. The 6'5" righty shows a low 90's fastball that's up to 94 for now, but more velocity is likely coming as he develops that huge frame. Willis flips in a solid curveball and a decent changeup for now, and he fills up the strike zone with all three pitches. With an easy, repeatable delivery and a sturdy frame, he has the look of a solid mid-rotation starter down the line. This is the kind of arm where if he ends up on a college campus, he could see his stuff tick up and throw 70+ innings a year before popping back out three years later as a performance-based early draft pick. He was looking to do that at Minnesota, but the Cardinals signed him away from that commitment for $1 million, which was $788,500 above slot value.
8-241: OF Mike Antico, Texas. Unranked.
Mike Antico is a money saving senior sign, but he's also one of the more recognizable names in college baseball. He hit .332/.451/.519 with 13 home runs, 44 stolen bases, and a 94/80 strikeout to walk ratio over a very successful four year career at St. John's, then transferred to Texas as a graduate when COVID gave him an extra year of eligibility. In Austin, Antico served as the leadoff man for one of the most balanced offenses in college baseball, slashing .273/.436/.489 with ten home runs, 41 stolen bases, and a 43/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games, giving him 85 stolen bases now for his career. The Central Jersey native brings the plus plate discipline that you would expect from a fifth year senior with more than 200 games under his belt, drawing a ton of walks while keeping his strikeouts reasonably low. While there's not a ton of power in his 5'10" frame, he maximizes what he has and has knocked 23 home runs in his career (including a career-high ten in 2021), so he won't just be a slap hitter in pro ball. Given that he turned 23 before the season even started, there's pretty limited upside here, though Matt Carpenter was a 23 year old fifth year senior when the Cardinals drafted him out of TCU. With his speed, on-base ability, and moderate power, Antico projects as a fourth or fifth outfielder. He signed for $20,000, which was $151,200 below slot value, and he has three hits in thirteen at bats for Class A Palm Beach.
11-331: SS Mack Chambers, New Mexico. Unranked.
The Cardinals didn't draft any true hometown guys for me to highlight, but living in North Texas I've come to learn that much of Oklahoma is actually Cardinals country and that's where Mack Chambers comes from. A product of Broken Arrow High School in the Tulsa area, Chambers began his career at Seminole State JC to the east of Oklahoma City and transferred to New Mexico this year. First of all, if nothing else, Mack Chambers is a great baseball name, but he did also show that he's a great player by slashing .371/.444/.624 with seven home runs and a 12/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in Albuquerque. He doesn't show a ton of power, but he puts the ball in play virtually every time he lifts the bat off his shoulders and struck out in a minuscule 6.1% of his plate appearances this season. The bat to ball skills are so good that he rarely walks, because as soon as he gets a hittable pitch, the at bat is over. He profiles to be a high on-base, low power guy in the majors. Chambers is also a strong defensive shortstop who will stick there in pro ball, giving him the full utility profile whereas many projected utility infielders don't have true shortstop tools. He signed for $175,000, of which $50,000 counts against the bonus pool, and he has picked up two hits in eight at bats so far at Class A Palm Beach (plus five strikeouts, almost equalling his college total already).
12-361: LHP Chris Gerard, Virginia Tech. Unranked.
The Cardinals' largest signing bonus of day three went to Chris Gerard, who was arguably Virginia Tech's most consistent pitcher during his three years there. In 24 starts and not a single relief appearance, he put up a 2.63 ERA and a 121/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 innings, including marks of 3.02 and 48/12 in 41.2 innings this year. I've watched him quite a bit over the years as one of the few, proud Virginia Tech baseball fans (albeit I was more of a VT baseball "watcher" than a fan until this year when they started showing some promise), getting my first look at him in 2019 when he was on his way to a strong freshman season. His velocity was upper 80's at the time, but it's now ticked up slightly and sits comfortably around 90, scraping 93 at its best. He shows two breaking balls in a slider and a curve, with the slider showing a little bit better in the low to mid 80's than the curve, which is down in the mid 70's. His changeup is his best pitch, fading to the arm side and unlike his other pitches, it doesn't necessarily need to add power. The 5'10" lefty is undersized but succeeds by deftly mixing his four pitches and executing his locations, so if he can manage to add a tick of power to that stuff, he has some sleeper upside. The North Jersey native signed for $250,000, of which $125,000 counts against the Cardinals' bonus pool.
17-511: OF Elijah Cabell, Florida State. Unranked.
Here is some of the most famous raw power in amateur baseball. Elijah Cabell has been known for his pop since his days at TNXL Academy in Florida, where he ranked #100 on my 2018 board but priced himself out of the draft. Cabell's stock has slipped a little bit as he's struggled with strikeouts at Florida State, and he wrapped it up this year by slashing .264/.397/.560 with 15 home runs and a 78/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games. What you see is what you get with the big 6'2" slugger. He brings plus-plus raw power that he has tapped consistently in games against a strong ACC schedule, such as with this 489 foot bomb to dead center or this 116 MPH nuclear missile to the opposite field. It's the kind of power that stands out even among other power bats, and it will absolutely play with wood bats. How often the Orlando-area native will tap it, however, is more of a question. He has struck out in exactly 40% of his plate appearances at Florida State and that mark has held (remarkably) stable over his three seasons, and it's not so much that he has a long or complicated swing than that he just struggles to recognize pitches. The ACC will throw a pretty tough set of arms at you, including Cardinals' third and twelfth rounders Austin Love and Chris Gerard, but pro ball will be another step up and Cabell has a lot of adjustments to make. He's old for the class and turned 22 in June, giving him slightly less time, but in the seventeenth round there are no perfect profiles and power like that is very hard to come by in any round. He won't stick in center field but is plenty quick enough for right field, where his strong arm will fit, or left field, where he played in Tallahassee. Cabell signed for $125,000.
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