The Nationals system was absolutely barren at the time of the draft, with most affiliate lineups filled with light hitting 24 year olds and pitching staffs looking similar. This represented what ended up being the start of their rebuild, injecting a couple of really interesting high school bats right at the top. From there, the Nationals focused a little more on providing new base of low risk guys to just balance out the system a bit, with the rest of the class (aside from fifth rounder TJ White) lacking much upside as a result. I loved the Brady House pick at the beginning and can get behind the Daylen Lile pick, but honestly I'm not thrilled with the rest of the class and I think the Nationals went too conservative to just try to find some sure-thing, utility/relief options to bring the system up a bit. Outside of House and Lile, I think the pick I'm most interested in is eighth rounder Will Frizzell.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-11: SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]. My rank: #4.
I'll be honest, I thought Mike Rizzo was going to mess this pick up. The Nationals had been linked to Ty Madden all spring long, and if not him, it seemed like they would go for an arm like Sam Bachman, Jackson Jobe, or Andrew Painter. Bachman and Jobe were off the board at this point, but surprisingly, potential top five picks Brady House and Kahlil Watson were still available, as were two guys who in my opinion were the second and third best college bats in the class, Sal Frelick and Matt McLain. I had my sights set on one of those four, with House my #1, but was still incredibly nervous that Rizzo would go a different route. When I heard House's name announced, I literally leapt off my couch, so it's safe to say I like this pick. House ranked fourth on my board because he's a freak of nature, one of the most physically gifted players in the class who also happens to be really, really good at baseball. He shows tremendous raw power from the right side that has earned some 70 grades (plus-plus), power that he has tapped consistently in games. He's been one of the most famous names in the class for a while now and started to suffer from some prospect fatigue at this time last year, when he also happened to be underperforming just a bit during 2020 summer showcase circuit. Those questions were answered come October, when he put on a show at the WWBA showcase, and again this spring when he picked up two hits off one of the top arms in the 2022 class, Dylan Lesko. The Georgian from between Atlanta and Athens has a simple swing that is a bit more geared for line drives right now, but he's so strong, so athletic, and just has such great feel for the game that I'm very confident he'll continue to pull it all together in pro ball, where he has a chance to hit 30+ home runs a year with high on-base percentages. Over on defense, he's played shortstop to this point and is athletic enough to be a fringe-average defender there, but his ultimate home will likely be third base as he continues to fill out. An absolute cannon of an arm will be an asset there, and he'll have plenty enough range to handle shifting. To put the last cherry on top, he's young for the class and only turned 18 in June, giving him extra time to fulfill his lofty expectations. Committed to Tennessee, House signed for $5 million, which was roughly $450,000 above slot value.
2-47: OF Daylen Lile, Trinity HS [KY]. My rank: #53.
This is a very interesting hitter for the Nationals, one who has a pretty clear development path ahead of him. We had an extremely strong, deep class of high school hitters this year, but Daylen Lile still stands out for his exceptional feel for hitting at a very young age. He's a professional hitter that always has a game plan at the plate, handling high velocity and advanced offspeed stuff better than most his age and looking to have a pretty easy transition to pro baseball. Lile has a pretty left handed swing that gets nice loft and leverage on the ball, and he gets that A swing off consistently. For now, he's not a power hitter, but the Nationals are banking on him becoming one. This is a case of a player whose game power will likely match his raw power because of his ability to tap it, so even if the raw power is a 45 right now (fringe-average), it plays up in games. As he gets stronger in Washington's development system, it should tick up to at least average, with the hope being he bulks up enough to get to above average. Wherever he does get, he'll tap it in games. I've seen some Michael Brantley comps on Lile, and that seems fitting to me. Lile likely profiles for 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, with the potential for 20+ if he reaches his ceiling. The Louisville native is an unremarkable defender in the outfield who gets the job done in a corner but won't provide any excess value. Because of that, the pressure will be not only on his bat, but his ability to get to at least average power. There's the danger of a tweener profile who doesn't hit for enough power to profile at left or right field but doesn't run well enough for center field, but I don't think that will happen here. I can see a prototypical #5 hitter, with another comp in terms of production at the plate being a shorter, left handed Jayson Werth. Committed to Louisville, Lile signed for $1.75 million, which was roughly $170,000 above slot value.
3-82: OF Branden Boissiere, Arizona. My rank: #233.
I'm not here to be negative, especially when discussing the biggest day of a young man's life so far, but if you look at the ranking there's no hiding the fact that I didn't like this pick. I will, however, find reasons to be positive anyways. You can compare this pick to last year's Cardinals 70th overall pick Alec Burleson, who had a similar profile at East Carolina but found his power stroke in pro ball and is slashing .293/.343/.497 with 18 home runs through 81 games across three levels this year. Branden Boissiere has an excellent track record of hitting at Arizona, slashing .355/.434/.488 for his career and hitting a best-ever .369/.451/.506 with five home runs and a 49/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games this season. Boissiere works counts well and doesn't swing and miss much, enabling him to post very consistent numbers against his tough Pac-12 schedules and seemingly always be on base right in the middle of that talented Arizona lineup. He has a loose swing from the left side, but to this point he has not shown much power, even though he played his home games at high elevation Hi Corbett Field in Tucson. That's a bit of a tough projection considering he won't provide much value defensively, but again, we can look to Burleson's example that guys can find their power stroke in pro ball. The Southern California native has played first base for Arizona, though the Nationals interestingly drafted him as an outfielder and could try him in left field. As is, he profiles as a platoon player or bench bat, which to me is pretty lame at #82 overall, but if he can add even half a grade of power, his feel for hitting could help him play every day. Boissiere signed for $600,000, which was $144,200 below slot value.
4-112: RHP Dustin Saenz, Texas A&M. Unranked.
I was aware of Dustin Saenz before the draft, but there's always going to be an inevitable "next group" of guys you would have dove into with more time or bandwidth and he was there. As with third rounder Branden Boissiere, he's more of a high floor pick that should contribute to the big league team in some capacity than a high ceiling pick looking to become a star. He was overshadowed by bigger names earlier in his Texas A&M career, pitching on a staff that included first rounder Asa Lacy and second rounders Christian Roa and John Doxakis, among others, and early in this season he was probably the third best prospect on the Aggie staff behind Jonathan Childress and Bryce Miller. As it turns out, he beat Miller by one spot to be the first Aggie drafted after posting a 4.27 ERA and a 104/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.1 innings. Saenz comes in with a low 90's fastball that can get up to 95, playing up due to good running life. His main offspeed is an above average slider, and he works between those two pitches very effectively throughout the game. The 5'11" lefty fills up the strike zone and keeps himself in good counts, though he's a bit undersized. A full time starter for the first time this spring, he struggled with consistency start to start and didn't always look crisp, with his stuff flattening out when he wasn't and leading to traffic on the basepaths. If Saenz wants to start long term, he'll need to get more comfortable with taking the ball every five days and bringing his A game or at least his B game every time, and he'll also need to work more on what's mostly a fringe-average changeup for now. He's also back after being eligible last year, so he turned 22 in June and will want to figure that out quickly. Otherwise, he profiles as a long reliever. The Corpus Christi native is joining a growing contingent of young Nationals from South and Central Texas, including Tres Barrera (Mission), Kyle Finnegan (Houston), Seth Romero (West Columbia), the newly acquired Mason Thompson (Round Rock), and ninth rounder Cole Quintanilla (Cedar Park), and as a Nationals fan who plans on moving to the region next year (Boerne), I like that. Saenz signed for $500,000, which was $17,400 below slot value.
5-143: OF TJ White, Dorman HS [SC]. Unranked.
The Nationals made TJ White their third prep bat in five picks, rounding out their upside plays. White is a switch hitter with huge raw power and a ton of strength, with a very well built, 6'2", 210 pound frame. He's hit some impressive home runs from both sides of the plate both in batting practice and in showcase action, giving plenty of excitement for his future as he continues to add strength and learn to channel it more consistently. The hit tool is fringy for now, but he's trending up in that regard and is making more and more contact. The Upstate South Carolina native won't bring much value on defense, as he's a below average runner who will be limited to a corner outfield spot or first base, but the Nationals are very clearly buying his bat. Also working in his favor is age, as he didn't turn 18 until after the draft and has plenty of time to develop. There's a pretty wide gap between ceiling and floor here, which is usually to be expected for any high schooler signing for fewer than seven figures. White signed away from an Indiana commitment for $400,000, which was $17,300 above slot value.
6-173: LHP Michael Kirian, Louisville. Unranked.
Michael Kirian was eligible last year, when he was coming off a two year stretch with a 1.41 ERA and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.1 innings, but didn't quite crack it in the five round draft. Had it gone to six or seven rounds, he might have been drafted. At the time, he was a reliever touching 95-96 with a good curveball with big depth, but college relievers don't have a great track record and he was looking forward to boosting his stock with a successful transition to the rotation in 2021. He was strong to start off the season, including striking out thirteen against North Carolina State in mid-March, but eventually lost his rotation spot after allowing 25 runs over four starts in May. The northern Ohio native ended the season with a 4.80 ERA and a 75/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings, looking better in his five relief appearances than in his eleven starts. As a starter, he was more low 90's with his fastball and dipped into the upper 80's a few times, and while he broke out a new slider, it could blend into his curveball at times. The 6'6" lefty also shows a fringe-average changeup as a starter, and he hides the ball well with a crossfire delivery that puts tough angle on the ball while generally staying around the strike zone. Having turned 22 in February, I think it's more likely that he stays a reliever in pro ball rather than trying to work his way back into the rotation, though the Nationals are light on starting pitching prospects (as they are with most positions) and could give him a shot. In pro ball, he profiles as a long reliever more likely unless the Nationals help him hold his stuff more consistently. Kirian signed for $200,000, which was $89,000 below slot value.
7-203: OF Jacob Young, Florida. Unranked.
Jacob Young has been a steady performer at Florida, hitting .330/.400/.447 with eight home runs and a 79/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games in his three year career. He shows great feel for hitting from the right side, enabling him to make consistent hard contact against a tough SEC schedule and rarely slump while doing it. Young does a good job of using the whole field and sprays line drives from gap to gap, then when you make a mistake over the plate in a hitters' count, he can punish you with some sneaky power, though it's definitely below average and likely always will be. He's manned left field at Florida in deference to Jud Fabian and also played a little second base, but his feel for the outfield could enable him to move back to center field in pro ball, where his bat will profile much better. If he shows he can handle center on a full time basis, he has a chance to be a light hitting regular in the mold of what Victor Robles is now (minus the elite defense), though his more likely outlook is that of a fourth or fifth outfielder that moves around the diamond in the mold of Rafael Bautista with less speed. He signed for $275,000, which was $49,200 above slot value.
8-233: 1B Will Frizzell, Texas A&M. Unranked.
It was a disappointing season in College Station, with the Aggies finishing last in the SEC West and head coach Rob Childress losing his job at the end. The biggest bright spot on the team, even bigger than Nationals fourth rounder Dustin Saenz, was first baseman Will Frizzell as he hit .343/.451/.686 with 19 home runs and a 43/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. Frizzell brings an SEC battle-tested power bat that's actually one of the more well-rounded in the class. In fact, I actually like him a bit better than third rounder Branden Boissiere. The Dallas-Forth Worth product produces high exit velocities from a whippy left handed swing and a strong 6'3" frame, and he's able to tap it consistently against good pitching because he shows a strong eye at the plate and good barrel control. All of his value will come from his bat because he's a well below average runner that is a bit choppy even at first base, and if Boissiere hits enough to play full time, it would force Frizzell to a DH role that will likely be there within the next few years. Additionally, Frizzell turned 22 in February, which takes away just a touch from his SEC numbers this year. I still would bet on him over Boissiere as our long term first baseman, with the potential to club 20-25 home runs or more with decent on-base percentages at his ceiling. He signed for slot value at $179,800.
9-263: RHP Cole Quintanilla, Texas. Unranked.
Staying in the Lone Star State, this isn't the Longhorn arm many thought the Nationals would bring in with their first pick, but Cole Quintanilla has a chance to be an interesting one for them. He had a breakout year for Texas this spring, posting a 1.35 ERA and a 42/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings out of the bullpen. The huge, 6'5" righty can sit in the mid 90's in short stints and touches the upper 90's, all from a very smooth delivery that's forceful but repeatable. He adds a sharp, above average slider in the low 80's that helps him miss bats, and between the two he allowed just 22 hits in those 40 innings this spring. Quintanilla shows better command than you typically see out of a power bullpen arm, and back in March/April he went seven straight appearances (9.1 innings) without issuing a free pass. He turned 22 in May and is most likely a reliever in pro ball as well, but if the Nationals want to be patient and help him learn a changeup, he does have the frame, arm strength, and delivery to start. The Austin-area native is a strong competitor who will happily handle the bright lights of the big leagues, and his final appearance of the season saw him strike out five over a season-high 3.1 innings against eventual national champion Mississippi State. He signed for $130,000, which was $26,600 below slot value.
10-293: 2B Darren Baker, California. Unranked.
By now you've probably heard that Darren Baker is the son of Dusty Baker, famous for running onto the field during the 2002 World Series when he was three years old (and before Brady House, Daylen Lile, or TJ White were born). Nearly 19 years later, Baker has established himself as a four year performer at Cal and is ready to begin his pro career. A career .302/.362/.338 hitter with 58 stolen bases over 168 games, he hit a career-best .327/.402/.354 with 28 stolen bases and a 33/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games this year. He's not the most physical player in this draft class, coming in at a rail thin 6' even, but has better feel for the game than perhaps any, which is befitting of an MLB manager's son. The Sacramento-area native rarely swing and misses and sprays line drives all over the field, never looking fazed by offspeed stuff or pitches outside the strike zone. He's a tough guy to strike out, running a 13.1% rate for his career and 12.7% in 2021. There's virtually no power here, not even sneaky ambush power, as Baker has just twenty extra base hits in his entire Cal career (which, if you remember, was 168 games) and hasn't hit a home run since he was a freshman in 2018. There is plus speed though, so he can beat you with bunt base hits and catch infielders napping. On defense, he shows excellent feel for second base with quick reactions and great coordination, and he could be an above average shortstop if he had more than fringy arm strength. He profiles as a utility infielder without a ton more ceiling than that unless he finds a way to tap at least some ambush power. Baker signed for full slot value at $146,800.
14-413: LHP Erik Tolman, Arizona State. Unranked.
It was a rough year for an Arizona State pitching staff that saw numerous arms go down with season ending injuries, including Erik Tolman. He looked sharp in the shortened 2020 season (2.50 ERA, 30/12 K/BB in 18 IP), but not quite sharp enough to warrant serious consideration in the five round draft. This year, he posted a 4.05 ERA and a 14/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.1 innings against Sacramento State, Hawai'i, and Utah, but was shut down after three starts and eventually needed Tommy John surgery. Tolman sits around 90 with his fastball, getting up into the low 90's at his best, adding a slider that he can manipulate well and a changeup he has feel to land for strikes. The command has been coming along, and given his feel to pitch it should continue to improve to at least average if not above average. The 6'2" lefty has some room to grow into his skinny frame, which is important because he's going to need a velocity boost to make it as a big league starter. Tolman was a breakout candidate for some in 2021 and the Nationals are betting that it would have happened without the surgery, and will give him an opportunity to work his way up as a back-end starter. The Southern California native signed for $125,000.
17-503: RHP Brendan Collins, UNC Greensboro. Unranked.
Brendan Collins was the Nationals' hometown pick this year, having attended Sherwood High School in Olney, Maryland, about twenty miles north of Nationals Park. He began his college career at Radford, but never saw the field due to an inability to throw strikes and transferred to UNC Greensboro. This year, He did manage to find plenty of innings, finishing the season with a 5.54 ERA and an even 51/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.1 innings. He has a power arm that has been up to 97 and can sit in the low to mid 90's for innings at a time, though for now, that's about it. The 6'4" righty doesn't show much feel to spin the ball and will need to work hard to develop a bat missing breaking ball in the minors, and while his command has improved considerably from a flat 20 grade to more of a 30 grade, it's still well below average and needs significant refinement even to work out of the bullpen. It's a clear relief profile with little upside to start when you add in his mediocre delivery, but it's some of the better arm strength you'll find here in the 17th round the Nationals are betting on their ability to harness it. He signed for $100,000.
18-533: C Steven Williams, Auburn. Unranked.
Steven Williams has been well known among Deep South area scouts for a long time, earning signifiant draft interest out of high school and again as a junior last year, though not enough to get popped in the five round draft. However, he hasn't been able to build his stock, as it has slowly slipped ever since he hit .291/.409/.488 with 12 home runs as a true freshman in 2018. This year, it was down to .247/.356/.534 with a career-best 13 home runs and a 49/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games, and he leaves Auburn with 36 home runs over his four year career. At this point, what you see is what you get. Williams has above average raw power from the left side with a strong 6'3" frame and plenty of feel to whip the barrel through the zone. He's tapped that power consistently against good SEC pitching, and should continue to do so in pro ball. There are swing and miss concerns, as he struck out at a 23.7% rate this spring even as a 22 year old, though again, it's been against good pitching. The Albany, Georgia native is a below average runner who won't provide much value on defense, but if he can get a little more consistent with his actions behind the plate, he has a chance to profile as a bat-first backup catcher. If not, he'll probably be a power hitting fourth or fifth outfielder that can play left or right field. Williams signed for $100,000.
No comments:
Post a Comment