I really like this Reds' class, and I had a lot of fun writing about it. They had a ton of early picks due to losing Trevor Bauer as well as winning a CBA pick for small market teams, meaning they got to select three times in the first 35. All three of those picks were hitters, and in fact they took bats with five of their first six picks before pivoting towards arms in the later rounds. Performance was a big focus here and they were not scared of older players, and by the end of September, seven of their first nine picks will have turned 22 and Matheu Nelson will be approaching 23. I really liked a lot of these picks, with first rounder Matt McLain being my favorite even though it took a huge over slot bonus to get him. In the later rounds, I really liked taking a chance on super-athlete Justice Thompson in the sixth round.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-17: SS Matt McLain, UCLA. My rank: #9.
Matt McLain has had a very well-documented amateur career, and it began and ended with a first round selection. Originally thought of as more of a second rounder for the 2018 draft at Beckman High School in California, he rode a hot spring to a back-of-the-first round selection by the Diamondbacks, only to turn them down when they couldn't meet his bonus demands. His freshman season at UCLA was a forgettable one, as he hit just .203/.276/.355 over 61 games, but he's been trending back up ever since. After a hot .397/.422/.621 start to his 2020, he raked his way through summer ball and rode a strong second half to a .333/.434/.579 line, nine home runs, and an even 34/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games this spring. The stats aren't a mirage, either, as he really has done a lot to improve his game. He came into Westwood as an undersized, aggressive hitter who lacked much impact, but learned to barrel the ball better as a sophomore. Then this spring, he came out with a much more disciplined approach and stopped chasing as often as he had in the past, and at the same time started impacting the ball significantly more. That led to me flipping from being relatively low on him coming into the season (he ranked as low as #23 on my board in early April) to becoming a big proponent of his upside. The Southern California native now profiles for above average power despite his skinny 5'11" frame, with plenty of twitchy strength and athleticism that he has learned to engage in his quick right handed swing. I'm less worried about the swing and miss now, and I think he has a shot at .350+ on-base percentages to go with 15-25 home runs per season. A plus runner, he can stretch for extra bases with regularity, though he didn't steal that often at UCLA and only came away with 16 career stolen bases in 121 games. His athleticism helps him a lot at shortstop, but to this point he relies on that athleticism to get the job done and he doesn't quite have the quick, smooth actions of a guy like third rounder Jose Torres. The industry is split on whether he'll stick, especially considering his inconsistency from game to game, but the Reds likely think he will and believe they can help channel that athleticism into more consistent defense there. The bat would profile great at shortstop, but he will still hit plenty enough to profile as a regular at third base. McLain signed this time for $4.63 million, which was just over one million above slot value.
1C-30: OF Jay Allen, John Carroll Catholic HS [FL]. My rank: #60.
The industry has been relatively split on Jay Allen, but he had a lot of fans and it looks like the Reds were one of them. Allen is a three sport star who had a chance to play football at Florida and has also shown potential on the basketball court, but his future has clearly been in baseball and the Reds solidified that with this pick. He has a powerful 6'3" frame that produces above average raw power for now and could get to plus with some mechanical tweaks, and he's trending in the right direction with his bat anyways. He's honed his approach at the plate significantly and wasn't quite so much of a free swinger this spring as he had been in the past, and he did a better job of repeating his A swing rather than getting out in front or chasing. As you might expect from a Division I-caliber quarterback and talented basketball player, the Fort Pierce, Florida native is a supreme athlete, but he didn't quite show his top speed this spring, the only tool that regressed for him. Proponents such as the Reds believe that could have to do with the grind of switching between three sports, and that focusing on one sport and one set of skills will get him back to showing those plus wheels. Additionally, the fact that he has shown this much potential in baseball despite not completely focusing on it is impressive in its own right, and Cincinnati also thinks that he could be in for a huge breakout once he gets into their development system. Allen has plenty of ceiling, but there's a long way to go. He signed for $2.4 million, which was about $30,000 above slot value.
CBA-35: C Matheu Nelson, Florida State. My rank: #40.
We'll ignore the fact that this is about the worst way you can spell Matthew and just focus on the fact that Matheu Nelson is a fantastic player. He was eligible as a sophomore last year due to being a full year older than most of his high school graduating class (similar to Jack Leiter and Colson Montgomery), but didn't garner enough interest to be seriously considered in the shortened draft. That changed this year when he absolutely torched ACC pitching to the tune of 23 home runs, a .330/.436/.773 slash line, and a 58/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games, enough to bring home ACC Player of the Year honors. He doesn't have huge physical tools, but simply found the barrel time and time and time again this spring with a quick, simple right handed swing. At first, evaluators were waiting for pitchers to adjust to his breakout, but he just kept hitting and hitting and hitting to the point where he just forced his name up boards. There is some swing and miss in the Tampa-area native's game (24.5% this year), but it didn't hamper him in the slightest against strong ACC pitching this spring and I'm inclined to believe it won't be an issue at the next level either. Behind the plate, he plays with a ton of energy and should be at least average, so it's not just a bat-first profile where people think he may have to move off the position. He's a fun one to watch no doubt, and has the ceiling of an every day catcher who hits for power and gets on base, which there are not a lot of right now. Because he's already 22 and a half, there is a bit of a lower floor given the swing and miss, and if it does crop up in pro ball, he should be at least a platoon guy or a power hitting backup. Nelson signed right at slot value for $2.1 million.
2-53: LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia. My rank: #61.
Andrew Abbott, like Matheu Nelson, was undrafted last year, but he was very much on the radar after three strong seasons in the UVA bullpen. He transitioned to starting this year and unlike many other relievers-turned-starters, he had tremendous success, putting up a 2.87 ERA and a 162/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings, the 162 strikeouts leading all non-Vanderbilt arms by 19. Abbott's stuff held firm during the transition, and he shows a low 90's fastball, a plus hammer curveball, and an improved changeup that's now solidly an average pitch. After showing inconsistent command out of the bullpen, he filled up the strike zone as a starter and effectively worked all three pitches to his spots. He has a bit of a crossfire delivery that puts angle on his pitches, especially adding to his curveball's depth. Additionally, teams love his work ethic and demeanor on the mound, as the southern Virginia native loves to go to war with the opponent and relishes pressure and competition. Still, I do have some minor concerns over his ability to stick in the rotation. In my looks, his low 90's fastball dipped into the upper 80's later in his starts, and he's not the most physical at a skinny six feet tall. I will say though that the progress he made with that changeup and command do give him a better shot, though he did turn 22 in June. He signed for $1.3 million, which was about $70,000 below slot value.
3-89: SS Jose Torres, North Carolina State. My rank: #63.
This is another pick I really like. Jose Torres has long stood out for his defense at shortstop, then surprised evaluators by coming out and hitting .333/.369/.533 over the shortened season. His numbers held up over a full season this year, slashing .289/.343/.533 with ten home runs and a 39/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He shows great bat to ball skills both in and out of the zone, which helps him keep his strikeouts down despite a very aggressive approach. There's some power in his rangy 6' frame that he is learning to tap, giving him the chance to be a multifaceted hitter. The defense remains his calling card, as the Dominican (by way of Baltimore) shows great range and a very strong arm with the ability to execute routine plays in addition to tough ones. He'll certainly stick at shortstop despite fringy speed, and if both hit enough to warrant a starting job, he could be the one to push first rounder Matt McLain off of shortstop. When you have a plus defender like that at a premium position, you'll take any offense you can get, and Torres provides that. If he can get a little more patient at the plate and add a little strength, he has the chance to pop 10-15 home runs or more per season while showing relatively high, batting average-driven on-base percentages. If he remains a hyper-aggressive hitter like he is now, the contact skills and defense should be enough to make him a useful utility infielder. Torres signed for $622,500, which was $45,400 below slot value.
4-119: 1B Ruben Ibarra, San Jose State. Unranked.
I haven't confirmed this, but Ruben Ibarra might have been the heaviest player drafted this year at a massive 6'5", 290 pounds. As you'd expect, he's an absolute slugger and hit .381/.503/.850 with 14 home runs and a 24/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games this spring. Ibarra's power doesn't come from elite bat speed or an ultra-optimized kinetic chain, rather, he simply wallops baseballs into oblivion with huge strength that doesn't require an overly complicated swing. The Watsonville, California native also shows strong plate discipline and draws a ton of walks without swinging and missing too much, something you don't always see from these brute force sluggers. As you might expect though, he will be limited to first base at best in pro ball. Ibarra likely profiles as a platoon or bench bat who can provide some thump, though hitters find playing time and he's a hitter. He signed for $172,500, which was $310,500 below slot value, and went 0-2 in his first game in the ACL.
5-150: RHP Thomas Farr, South Carolina. My rank: #181.
Thomas Farr began his career at Northwest Florida State then transferred to South Carolina, where a strong but shortened junior season (1.72 ERA, 14/5 K/BB) put him on the map for the 2020 draft. He probably would have needed a few more rounds than the five there ended up being to feel like he had a good shot at being drafted, but he didn't need them this year and went in the fifth round after posting a 3.87 ERA and a 90/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.2 innings. Farr brings power stuff from the right side with a low to mid 90's fastball that can get up to 97, and it gets on you quick. His power curve is his best secondary and flashes plus with hard bite, and he adds a more ordinary slider and changeup as well. Strong and durable, the 6' righty is generally around the strike zone but can be prone to walk some guys here and there, partially owing to a relatively high effort delivery with some late head whack. To me, the Atlanta-area native probably fits in the bullpen due to the lack of a third above average pitch, the fringy command, and the delivery, in addition to the fact that he turned 22 in April, but he could be very good there when he gets to focus on just the fastball and slider. If Cincinnati does go that round, I could see him working his way through the minors relatively quickly. Farr signed for $297,500, which was $59,600 below slot value.
6-180: OF Justice Thompson, North Carolina. My rank: #97.
Here is another pick I really like. Justice Thompson wasn't the most famous name on the Florida JUCO circuit when he was at Northwest Florida State (where he was teammates with Farr in 2019), then did not stand out at UNC's fall practices in 2020. However, he thrust himself into the national spotlight in his first ACC game on February 25th, ironically against Reds second round pick Andrew Abbott and the UVA Cavaliers. He doubled in his first at bat, then dropped down a bunt single in his second, stole second base, and came back around for his third at bat with a home run, all against Abbott. Thompson brought his glove, too, making a couple of great catches. He eventually cooled down and finished the season at .304/.386/.444 with seven home runs and a 67/25 strikeout to walk ratio, still strong numbers against a tough ACC schedule. The Tampa native stands out first for his supreme athleticism, as he's an easy plus runner that can (and did) wreak havoc on both sides of the ball. There's plenty of raw power in his 6'4" frame as well, though his simple, line drive-oriented swing doesn't always help him tap it. He hits the ball plenty hard, so some slight tweaks could help him tap it more consistently in pro ball. One drawback with Thompson is plate discipline, as he can get aggressive and has a long history of swinging through both hittable and unhittable pitches, though that didn't seem to bite him this year with his .304/.380/.449 ACC-only slash line nearly mirroring his .304/.386/.444 overall line. Working in his favor is age, as he only turned 21 three days before the draft and has plenty of time to figure out who he is as a ballplayer. There's plenty of ceiling here, especially by sixth round standards, if the Reds can unlock it. He signed for $250,000, which was $22,500 below slot value.
7-210: RHP Kevin Abel, Oregon State. My rank: #114.
Kevin Abel has been around a long time, and by now most know his story. He rose to stardom as a true freshman in 2018, when he put Oregon State on his shoulders and looked like the best pitcher on the planet carving his way through the NCAA Tournament, finishing it off with a complete game shutout of Arkansas to deliver the CWS trophy to Corvallis. His path to the Reds in the seventh round of 2021 since then, however, has been anything but straight. Abel lasted just three starts in 2019 before going down with Tommy John surgery, then the pandemic ended the 2020 season when he was nearing the end of his rehab. He still earned some buzz in the third to fifth round range for the 2020 draft, but no team was quite comfortable enough to meet his asking price. Healthy in 2021, he looked like a different pitcher. After showing a low 90's fastball, a big, loopy curveball, and a plus changeup with solid average command as a freshman, he saw that fastball dip into the upper 80's this year but ironically he tightened up the curveball and retained the strong changeup. The command was also a full grade worse from 2018, and he finished an up and down season with a 3.62 ERA and a 109/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings. It's a really weird profile in that teams don't often covet sub-90 fastballs with fringy command, especially when the man throwing them is already 22 and lacks projection, but of course Abel is a special case after having thrown a combined 16.1 innings over the previous two seasons. The 6'1" righty still missed a ton of bats by sequencing his pitches effectively in addition to the fact that his secondary stuff is, to put it simply, really good, in fact better than it was in 2018. The Reds will hope their pro development system can get Abel's command back to average or perhaps a tick better, and helping him build up enough strength to get that fastball on the right side of 90 will be important as well. If he can do both, then the Reds found a legitimate major league starter in the seventh round, though failure to do one will push him to the bullpen. Fortunately, the San Diego native has never been one to shy away from pressure and proved it by pitching at his best under the bright College World Series lights at 19 years old. He signed for $172,500, which was $40,800 below slot value, though he likely won't move as quickly as most 22 year olds.
11-330: RHP Shawn Guilliams, Central Florida JC. Unranked.
Shawn Guilliams trended up all spring long, but the Reds are hoping they're still buying low on a very talented arm. Growing up between Ocala and Orlando, he didn't receive a ton of interest in high school, but his stuff all ticked up at the College of Central Florida and he put together a 2.41 ERA and a 49/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings. Guilliams now sits comfortably in the low 90's and got up to 95-96 at times, adding a plus curveball with late bite as well as a newer slider and changeup. All of his stuff is extremely high spin, with the curveball popping the 3,000 RPM line and the fastball regularly sitting above 2,500. Previously showing a high effort delivery in high school, the 6'1" righty has cleaned up his delivery a bit and showed close to average command, which at 18 years old in JUCO ball is impressive. There's still some work to be done but all of the puzzle pieces are there, and had the Reds not swooped in first, he could have turned into a monster and a high draft pick at Florida, where he was committed. Guilliams, who only just turned 19 in June, instead signed for $272,500, of which $147,500 counts against the Reds' bonus pool.
No comments:
Post a Comment