The Blue Jays went pitching-heavy this year, selecting arms with their first five picks and nine of their first ten. Even though they did not have a second round pick due to signing George Springer, they managed to make a few picks that I really liked, most notably their first pick in Gunnar Hoglund, who in my opinion was one of the top arms in the entire class. Toronto did select two Canadians in 14th and 16th rounds, though Abbotsford native Micah Bucknam did not sign and will instead attend Washington for school.
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1-19: RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi. My rank: #12.
I'm a huge fan of this pick, especially considering they got him below slot. Gunnar Hoglund has been on prospect radars for a while, and his ability to command a high velocity fastball got him drafted 36th overall by the Pirates, but he did not sign. Hoglund settled in as one of the best strikethrowers in the SEC over the next two seasons, walking just 18 batters in 91.1 innings as a 19-20 year old by pulling back a bit on his velocity. I went to his first start of the 2021 season against Texas Tech (which I wrote about at length here), and everything changed. After sitting 88-92 as an underclassman, he came out firing and touched 96 in the first inning, holding 90+ velocity for the entire start and in fact, for the entire season. That increased velocity came from the same simple, easy delivery he's always shown, and he maintained plus command throughout the season. That led to a 2.87 ERA and a 96/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.2 innings. The 6'4" righty also tightened up his slider this year, bumping it into the mid to upper 80's and earning some plus grades at his best, and also took a big step forward with a changeup that looks like an above average pitch as well. All of that had him trending towards the top ten picks, and in fact he ranked as high as eighth on my midseason lists, but unfortunately he went down with Tommy John surgery in May. While that's obviously a crushing blow, I'm honestly not too worried. Nowadays, it seems like almost everybody is getting TJ at some point anyways, and while that still doesn't make it a good thing, at least it's happening now rather than in pro ball when he's knocking on the door to the majors. Hoglund is also so advanced in so many facets of pitching that once he's healthy again, even though he'll be 22 and a half years old, he should be able to move quickly and still reach the majors in a reasonable timeframe. If his stuff and command come all the way back, I see a pretty high floor as a back-end starter and a more likely outcome as a #3 guy. The Tampa-area native signed for $3.25 million, which was about $110,000 below slot value.
3-91: LHP Ricky Tiedemann, Golden West JC [CA]. My rank: #134.
Ricky Tiedemann was eligible last year and ranked 75th on my list, and after teams would not reach his signing bonus demands, he switched his commitment from San Diego State to Long Beach City College to be eligible for the draft this year. When LBCC cancelled its baseball season due to COVID fears, he transferred quickly to Golden West JC and put up a 3.55 ERA and a 60/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 innings. His fastball has ticked up slightly into the low 90's, topping out around 93-94 at its best, while his slider has gotten more consistent and looks like an average pitch. His changeup remains his main weapon, coming in with great fade from his low three quarters arm slot and earning some plus grades. The 6'4" lefty is generally around the zone, but he struggles to command within it and his stuff isn't quite crisp enough to avoid getting hit hard when he leaves pitches over the plate. His proponents will point to the projection in his frame and the looseness of his delivery that will allow him to add velocity, while his detractors will wonder if he'll ever miss enough bats to be more than a back-end starter or a reliever. The Blue Jays are likely in that first camp, and the fact that he's extremely young for a college freshman (still 18 for a few more weeks) should help him continue to add power to his stuff. The southern California native signed for $644,800, which was $2,500 below slot value.
4-121: RHP Chad Dallas, Tennessee. My rank: #159.
Chad Dallas is a relatively safe pick in the fourth round, albeit one without a ton of upside. He began his career at Panola JC, then followed the Alerick Soularie path from the Texas JUCO ranks to Tennessee. After making a strong impression as a sophomore in 2020 (2.53 ERA, 21/6 K/BB), he was the Volunteers' most consistent starter this year and finished with a 4.19 ERA and a 122/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings, facing a tough schedule with a hitter-friendly home park. "Cheese" Dallas attacks hitters with a low 90's fastball that has reached as high as 97 in the past, adding in a full set of secondaries with an above average slider, an average curve, and a seldom-used changeup. The 5'11" righty is a bit undersized, but his competitiveness and above average command enable him to power through lineups and pitch deep into ballgames. It looks like a high probability back-end starter, or he could wind up in the bullpen with his fastball/slider combination. It does help that he's relatively young for the class and only turned 21 in June. The southeast Texas native signed for $497,500, which was $23,800 above slot value.
5-152: RHP Irv Carter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]. My rank: #74.
This is another pick I really like for the Blue Jays. Irv Carter may have been the third player drafted off his own high school team, but in the fifth round, I think he represents the best value. Carter has a big right arm that fires fastballs in the low 90's and has been clocked up to 94, but most evaluators agree that there is plenty more in the tank. He attacks hitters with a hard, above average slider that can show plus bite at its best, and he's shown relatively advanced feel for his changeup as well, though the latter needs to gain more consistency. A fringy curveball is currently a fourth pitch The 6'4" righty is very animated on the mound, breaking out numerous different deliveries to mess with hitters' timing. His primary delivery features a short pause right before foot strike, but sometimes he'll add an extra tap in his windup, shimmy at the top, or add a second leg lift. That partly contributes to fringy command, as changing up his lower half mechanics pre-pitch often leads to inconsistent lower half mechanics mid-delivery, and his upper body sometimes doesn't catch up while his lower half is off doing its thing. The Blue Jays will want to smooth that out and get him consistent with a single, normal delivery, then perhaps let him go back to changing things up once he's comfortably repeating his mechanics. There is a ton of natural talent here, from the strong frame to the excellent feel to spin the baseball, and Toronto is really buying into the upside. A Miami commit, the south Florida native instead signed for $850,000, which was $499,700 above slot value.
6-182: RHP Hayden Juenger, Missouri State. Unranked.
The Blue Jays see a fast-moving reliever in Hayden Juenger, who served as Missouri State's closer this year and put up a 3.86 ERA and a 31/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 innings. There's not a ton of video available on him, but the 6' righty does have a smaller frame and an uptempo delivery that will likely keep him in the bullpen. He can bring it with a mid 90's fastball that serves as his primary weapon, also keeping hitters off balance with a slider and a changeup. Juenger is extremely young for the class and will only turn 21 shortly after this review is published, so Toronto will have that much extra time to develop his fresh arm in their system. College relievers do not have a great track record early in the draft, but the St. Louis-area native's youth and arm strength still intrigue the Blue Jays here, where they feel they're deep enough into the draft to go after an electric arm. He signed for $197,500, which was $70,700 below slot value.
12-362: 3B Riley Tirotta, Dayton. Unranked.
Riley Tirotta is an interesting one, and someone who was on my radar before the draft but who I just didn't get around to. A fourth year player, had he been willing to accept a lower signing bonus, he probably could have gone in the top six or seven rounds given that he was a favorite among Midwest area scouts. Tirotta was inconsistent over his first three years at Dayton but put it all together in 2021, slashing .337/.450/.696 with 16 home runs and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games. The South Bend, Indiana native employs a big right handed uppercut that helps him tap his above average power very consistently in games, and he cut his strikeout rate to 16.2% during his breakout this year. Throw in plus speed that has enabled him to steal 43 bases in 162 career games, and you have someone who can impact the game in a lot of ways. The catch is that most of his damage has come against so-so A-10 pitching, and he did struggle in the Cape Cod League back in 2019. The debate rages as to whether he's a legitimate impact hitter that's simply unproven against better pitching, or if he's really an organizational depth guy who just beat up on a weaker schedule. The Cape numbers my point to the latter, but the Blue Jays will counter that it was a 19 game sample two years ago. Defensively, he has the speed to play the infield, but it doesn't necessarily translate out there and he could be a candidate to move to the outfield if third base doesn't work out. Set to turn 23 in August, he's on the older side, and he signed for $125,000.
14-422: 3B Damiano Palmegiani, Southern Nevada JC. Unranked.
The Blue Jays selected two Canadians this year, but only one signed. Damiano Palmegiani grew up in Surrey in the Vancouver area, then played his high school ball at the Vauxhall Academy boarding school in rural southern Alberta. After playing his freshman year at Cal State Northridge, he transferred to the College of Southern Nevada this year and absolutely mashed, slashing .389/.532/1.360 with 26 home runs and a 38/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. He generates big raw power from the right side, a product of the strength in his 6'1" frame and the leverage he creates with a strong base and kinetic chain. There's a slight hitch in his swing that leads to a slightly longer path to the baseball, which did not hurt him in the slightest this year but could be an issue in pro ball. While his 13.4% strikeout rate was low against junior college competition, the arms out west aren't quite as strong as the ones in Texas or Florida and certainly not as tough as an SEC or Pac-12 schedule. He did hit .304/.403/.482 with a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio against better pitching in the MLB Draft League, but struck out 25.8% of the time. Defensively, he's going to need a lot of work if he wants to stick at third base, with the outfield a more likely outcome. He's an average runner so left field is probably where he ends up, where his bat will have to carry him. Palmegiani signed for $157,500, of which $32,500 counts against the bonus pool.
17-512: LHP Cooper Benson, Arizona State. Unranked.
Arizona State was excited to get Cooper Benson to campus, but he'll be leaving Tempe with only 27 innings under his belt. After looking strong in twenty innings as a freshman, he left his second start with an injury and ultimately went down with Tommy John surgery. It's hard to have looked better than he did, however, tossing seven shutout innings between the two starts while allowing just two hits and no walks while striking out ten of the 23 Sacramento State and Hawaii batters he faced. Benson has a fastball around 90 and adds an average curve and an above average changeup that plays very well off his fastball. He curls his arm behind his back in his delivery, creating nice deception and making it hard to pick it up out of his hand. The San Luis Obispo, California native filled up the strike zone this year, though it's always a question how that will hold up once he gets back from surgery, especially considering he was just a sophomore and only turned 21 the day this was published. The Blue Jays are buying into that hot start to the season and hoping they uncovered a gem that was on his way to a breakout. The 6' lefty signed for $125,000.
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