2020 Draft Review: Miami Marlins

1-3: RHP Max Meyer, Minnesota
2-40: LHP Dax Fulton, Mustang HS (OK)
CBB-61: RHP Kyle Nicolas, Ball State
3-75: RHP Zach McCambley, Coastal Carolina
4-104: LHP Jake Eder, Vanderbilt
5-134: RHP Kyle Hurt, Southern California

The Marlins like to scare us by waiting until the last second to sign their draftees, and it looks like that's happening again this year with only two out of six having officially put pen to paper. After picking up five straight bats to start the 2019 draft, they flipped the script this year and spent all six picks on pitchers. The selection of Max Meyer at third overall was a bit of a surprise after they had been linked heavily to Asa Lacy throughout the spring, and it's even more surprising a month later now that they've both received roughly the same signing bonus. Even though five out of six picks were from the college ranks, this was clearly an upside-oriented draft, as only Meyer can really be considered a "sure thing." As far as third overall picks go, Meyer is still more of an upside pick because you're not going to pick anybody considered high risk that early anyways. I tentatively like the class, even if I would have picked Lacy over Meyer myself, but given its boom/bust nature, we'll really just have to wait and see.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-3: RHP Max Meyer, Minnesota (my rank: 9)
When the Orioles unexpectedly took Heston Kjerstad second overall, the Marlins ended up with a dream scenario: Vanderbilt's Austin Martin, the best all-around player in the class, or any pitcher they wanted. They chose option B, but instead of Texas A&M's Asa Lacy, who is widely considered the best pitcher in the class and who had been tied to them all spring, they chose Max Meyer, the man with the best two pitch combination not just in this draft, but in years. I ranked him ninth behind Louisville's Reid Detmers, but honestly that's a bit of a regret and I'd flip them if I could. Anyways, Max Meyer is a skinny 6' righty out of the Twin Cities area who stayed home for college, and he's put up some pretty exciting numbers in his Minnesota career: 10-7, 2.07 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 187/41 K/BB in 148 IP. He put an exclamation point on his career when he tossed 17 innings and allowed just one earned run against two strong lineups in UNC and Utah, striking out 29 batters in the process. He's done all this on the strength of a three pitch mix headlined by two of the best pitches in the entire draft. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has hit triple digits, and despite his smaller stature, he easily holds that velocity deep into his starts. His slider is perhaps the best pitch in the entire draft, a disgusting breaking ball that can reaches low 90's (!!!) fairly often without sacrificing movement, still coming in with great depth despite its top of the scale velocity. Not just a two pitch guy, he also throws a very solid changeup that solidifies his future as a starting pitcher, and everything plays up further because he can actually command it well. Really, the only downside in his game is size, but that hasn't proven to be an issue at all yet. He's extremely athletic and extremely competitive, which has enabled him to repeat his delivery consistently and hold his stuff deep into games, but he also has just 15 college starts under his belt. Don't get me wrong, I see him as a starting pitcher for sure, but the microscope is very strong at the third overall pick and the Marlins have to be certain he'll hold up in the rotation to justify this pick. I think if Meyer were three or four inches taller with the exact same profile otherwise, he would have been in the conversation with Spencer Torkelson for first overall, and the upside here is clearly an ace. Really, the only thing separating him from Jacob deGrom is height and a curveball. Meyer signed for $6.7 million, which was about $520,000 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.

2-40: LHP Dax Fulton, Mustang HS, OK (my rank: 41)
First off, doesn't "Dax Fulton from Mustang, Oklahoma" just sound like he has to be good at baseball? Or at least a competitor at the Houston Rodeo? Anyways, Fulton was clearly the best high school lefty in the country last summer, a title he retains even after after he blew out his elbow in the fall and went down with Tommy John surgery. Fulton is a towering 6'6" lefty who grew up just outside of Oklahoma City, bringing a low 90's fastball that looks like it's coming straight down on hitters. His curveball is easily top two in the high school class, perhaps just a hair behind Nick Bitsko's but not clearly, coming in with both tremendous depth and great two-plane movement. He can also manipulate it into a slider-like offering with more horizontal movement, and he should only get better in that regard as he develops. For now, his changeup is fairly ordinary and requires some projection, but he does show feel for it. The first step for Fulton will be getting healthy, but from there, he has the potential to develop into a real ace. There's plenty of room to project onto his frame and envision more velocity, which he'll need, and his strike throwing is decent but he could definitely use more time to smooth out his delivery and get more consistent with his arm slot. The Marlins have a project on their hands for sure, but between the excellent curveball, the present all-around ability outside of that, the youth, and the projection, there is a ton of upside. Slot value is $1.86 million and he hasn't signed yet, but I would imagine it will require north of $2 million to sign away from an Oklahoma commitment. With weekend starters Cade Cavalli, Dane Acker, and Levi Prater all getting drafted by the Nationals, Athletics, and Cardinals, respectively, he has a chance to jump straight into the weekend rotation as soon as he's healthy, so the Marlins better pay up. Pre-draft profile here.

CBB-61: RHP Kyle Nicolas, Ball State (my rank: 56)
Here's another big upside play. Nicolas formed one of the better high school batteries around in 2017, when he was throwing to future Tigers second rounder Dillon Dingler at Jackson High School just outside Canton, Ohio, then the two went separate ways as Dingler headed to Ohio State and Nicolas to Ball State. He flashed great stuff over his first two seasons in Muncie, but his inconsistent command held him back with a 5.30 ERA and 91 walks in 108.2 innings in that time frame. In 2020, though, he came out of the gate looking much better in that regard, putting up a 2.74 ERA and a 37/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings, including a 17 strikeout, one hit performance against Sacred Heart in his final start. Nicolas is a 6'4" right hander with a big mid 90's fastball that has hit triple digits in the past, adding in a full set of secondaries that are inconsistent but improving. His slider is his best offspeed pitch, getting into the upper 80's at times and flashing good depth as well, while his curveball can be an above average pitch at times and his changeup lags behind for the most part. Formerly a well below average strike thrower, he's smoothed out his delivery and was showing closer to average command in 2020, something that will be key if he wants to remain a starting pitcher. The Marlins are buying the arm strength and the trajectory here, hoping that he continues the progress he's made and develops into a true impact starter. I think he has a very good shot at that, which is great value in the second competitive balance round, but if he stagnates with his secondaries or his command, he could wind up in the bullpen. There, I think his fastball/slider combination could play up well, but you'd rather have him as a starter regardless. Nicolas signed for $1.13 million, right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

3-75: RHP Zach McCambley, Coastal Carolina (my rank: 89)
In a way, Zach McCambley is a little bit like Max Meyer-lite in that his arsenal is highlighted by a wicked fastball/breaking ball combination. The northeastern Pennsylvania native (NEPA, as I'm told it's pronounced) has been a bit up and down during his career at Coastal Carolina, but 2020 was certainly an up: 3-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 25 innings. He's a 6'1" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball that he has run up to 97, but his best pitch is his curveball. It's a true plus pitch, perhaps plus-plus when he locates it, showing huge two plane break in addition to more velocity than most curveballs get. He has a changeup, but doesn't use it much and he'll need to work on it. He's done a better job of throwing strikes this spring as well as last summer in the Cape Cod League, where he had a 1.74 ERA and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.2 innings, but his command is still average at best and still below average more often than not. There are significant reliever questions with McCambley given his lack of a third pitch in addition to the inconsistent command, but if he can continue trending in the right direction like he has been, he absolutely has a shot to stick in the rotation. If not, the fastball and curveball should play very well out of the bullpen and I could easily envision him as a late inning reliever at the major league level. Slot vlaue is $831,100 and he has not signed yet, and while I have no insider information, I could see him taking a slight discount. Pre-draft profile here.

4-104: LHP Jake Eder, Vanderbilt (my rank: 85)
Jake Eder grew up in Ocean Ridge, Palm Beach County, and was a star pitcher at Calvary Christian High School in Fort Lauderdale. His projectable frame and big stuff earned him serious draft buzz in 2017 and his name was mentioned regularly in the second round range, but he headed north to Vanderbilt instead and is a very similar prospect three years later. He's been solid over the last two seasons for the Commodores, putting up a 3.19 ERA and a 68/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings, highlighted by earning the save to close out Vanderbilt's 2019 College World Series win. The 6'4" lefty flashes first round stuff at times, running his fastball as high as 97 at times and showing a plus curveball with great depth and an average changeup. However, he might look like that one start, then the next week his fastball will sit around 90 and his breaking ball will back up on him. With fringe-average command, he can't really afford too many of those off days and he'll have to get much more consistent. He has a great pitcher's body with room to add more good weight, and he has a very natural left arm that seems like it was made for pitching. The Marlins are excited to work with him and see if they can get the most out of him, though the fact that Vanderbilt of all places hasn't gotten him more consistent to this point worries me slightly. There's plenty of starter upside and just as much reliever risk here, with the Marlins obviously buying into the former. Slot value is $560,000 but I suspect he'll need a little more to sign. Pre-draft profile here.

5-134: RHP Kyle Hurt, Southern California (my rank: 156)
Like Eder, Kyle Hurt was a well-known prospect for the 2017 draft growing up in the San Diego suburbs, but he ended up at USC instead and like Eder, he's more or less the same prospect he was three years ago. Because he was a year older than most members of his high school graduating class, he was draft-eligible as a sophomore in 2019, but an up and down first two seasons for the Trojans (7-12, 5.22 ERA, 145/99 K/BB in 155.2 IP) left him undrafted. With a 3.71 ERA and a 25/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings this year, including a strong start against TCU to close it out, the Marlins were comfortable enough with the 6'3" righty's progression to pop him in the third round. Hurt's calling card has long been his power low to mid 90's fastball, but he also adds an above average changeup with nice fading action that routinely misses bats. He mainly relies on those two pitches for his outs, but he also adds in a hard slider and loopy curveball that flash above average at times but too often flatten out. His command is similarly inconsistent, and it has kept him from fully realizing his potential at USC. Everyone agrees that he has the arm strength and build to start, but I have heard numerous concerns over his work ethic; I've never met the guy and for that reason I don't want to dwell on it, but the general feel in the industry is that he's cruised this far on natural talent alone and that he might be in for a big time reality check in pro ball. The Marlins are buying the arm strength and natural talent, and they believe they can whip him into shape and help him pull it all together to become a mid rotation starter. On the down side, even though he's a junior, he turned 22 back in May and is really the age of a college senior. Slot value is $418,200 and I'm not sure how much he'll require to sign.

Undrafted: SS Brett Norwood, Virginia Commonwealth (unranked)
I actually played against Norwood in the 2015 Virginia high school state championship game, when he played for Chantilly High School in Northern Virginia (we won that year, but Chantilly came back and won it all in 2016). He started his career at South Florida State CC in Highlands County, then transferred back to his home state for his junior and senior years. Since transferring to VCU, he's been a steady .303/.425/.440 hitter with seven home runs, 30 stolen bases, and an even 36/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Norwood has no standout tool, but he's a great all-around hitter who gets on base consistently, makes plenty of contact, runs well, and produces some sneaky power from a smaller 5'11" frame. It's a utility infield projection, and as long as he hits for enough impact in pro ball (which I think he will), he could work his way up relatively quickly. That would be best, because he'll already be 23 in August.

Undrafted: LHP Antonio Velez, Florida State (unranked)
Velez gives the Marlins a semi-hometown player, having grown up in Brandon, Florida, attended Hillsborough CC in nearby Tampa, and transferred to Florida State for the 2019 season. The 6'1" lefty was solid as a redshirt junior (4.17 ERA, 50/11 K/BB in 45.1 IP) and was off to a hot start in 2020, putting up a 0.52 ERA and a 21/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.1 innings against some pretty strong lineups, including six shutout innings in a win over an undefeated Florida team. In the rotation, his fastball sits in the upper 80's and scrapes the low 90's, but I see him moving to the bullpen in pro ball, where he should be more comfortably in the low 90's. He gets some nice run on the ball and his quick delivery makes the ball pop out of his hand, but it doesn't look quite repeatable enough to start in pro ball. There is a nice slider that flashes above average as well, plus a changeup, and he's been an above average strike thrower for the Seminoles. Having already turned 23 in March, he's one of the older players to sign a pro contract this year, but he could move relatively quickly in a relief role.