1-6: RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia
2-43: OF Zach DeLoach, Texas A&M
CBB-64: RHP Connor Phillips, McLennan CC
3-78: 2B Kaden Polcovich, Oklahoma State
4-107: 3B Tyler Keenan, Mississippi
5-137: RHP Taylor Dollard, Cal Poly
The Mariners left about $300,000 of their bonus pool unspent, which doesn't really sit right with me. They didn't severely short anybody with five figure bonuses, which is good, but the draft is the single most cost-effective way to add talent to your system, and if you don't do everything you can to maximize the talent you get through the draft, then I'm sorry but you're not trying to win. Anyways, I think the end product of this draft class is pretty decent, but for a team with four of the first 78 picks, I don't see a ton of upside. It's a pretty safe bet class, which there's nothing wrong with, but they had the money to chase some additional upside without sacrificing the "safe bet" factor and they chose not to. So overall I'd give the class a C, even though I like a lot of the names. They brought in a lot of talent, but they could have done better.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-6: RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia (my rank: 5)
This is probably my favorite pick the Mariners made this year, as there is a lot of pressure to get the sixth overall pick right and I think they did that. Seattle loves pitchers who can control the strike zone (see Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, etc.) so Hancock certainly fits right into that picture. He has better command than Gilbert and better stuff than Kirby and even though he was the third pitcher taken this year behind Max Meyer and Asa Lacy, he was arguably the most complete pitcher in the entire class. Hancock is a 6'4" right handed pitcher from the small town of Cairo in far south Georgia, just about 30 miles north of Tallahassee, and he has been absolutely dominant for the Bulldogs. He was one of the best pitchers in the country in 2019, putting up a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings against a tough SEC schedule, though the shortened 2020 was a bit more up and down with a 3.75 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 34/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings against weaker competition. Hancock has it all as a pitcher; he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, reaching as high as 99 at times, and adds a full array of secondary pitches. His slider, curveball, and changeup all flash plus, though for the most part they're closer to above average than plus. Still, they all play up because he commands everything extremely well, tunneling pitches off each other and creating lots of confused swings from his competition. With a durable frame and a four weapons that he can command, there are virtually no downsides in his profile. However, because his name was discussed in the first overall conversation for so long, things undoubtedly get nitpicked, and there were some nits to pick with Hancock. While his slider, curve, and changeup all flash plus, none are the elite strikeout pitches you find in guys like Lacy, Meyer, or Garrett Crochet. Okay, well that's it. That's all the criticism I have for Hancock. He has ace upside with a most likely outcome being a strong #2, and very little risk so long as he stays healthy. I really like the pick at #6. Hancock signed for $5.7 million, which was about $40,000 below slot value (money they never redeployed anywhere else). Pre-draft profile here.
2-43: OF Zach DeLoach, Texas A&M (my rank: 76)
Zach DeLoach went to high school in Carrollton, Texas, just down the street from where I currently live in Addison. At Texas A&M, he started off his career in unremarkable fashion, slashing .236/.338/.338 with five home runs over 117 games between his freshman and sophomore seasons. However, his strong plate discipline and untapped raw power earned him a trip to the elite Cape Cod League, over the summer, and DeLoach showed up a different hitter with a shorter, cleaner swing. There, he hit .368/.434/.529 with five home runs and ten stolen bases in 43 games against very strong competition, and that continued into the spring, where he hit .421/.547/.789 with six home runs, six stolen bases, and just three strikeouts to 14 walks in 18 games, albeit against pretty weak competition. Right now, it's impossible to tell whether the shutdown helped or hurt him – the Mariners clearly buy into the new DeLoach being the real one, and they think he would have continued to rake in SEC competition, which would have vaulted him into the first round. However, if his numbers slipped in the SEC, it could have knocked him out of the top 100. His most well-established attribute is his strong plate discipline, which he has shown throughout his career in College Station and which enables him to handle advanced pitching pretty easily. There is above average power in his 6'2" frame that he has tapped much more consistently as of late, though his swing can still be a bit rigid at times and it's not quite as explosive as some other bats in this range. It's certainly better than it was early in his career, though, and given the legitimate success he had with wood bats against great pitching on the Cape, you would have to be a real pessimist to think he won't continue to hit in pro ball. There is a fairly wide gap in his likely outcomes in pro ball, and I see him settling in as a relatively streaky 20-25 home run hitter with solid on-base percentages, albeit with pretty ordinary defense in the outfield. He signed for $1.73 million, right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
CBB-64: RHP Connor Phillips, McLennan CC (my rank: 94)
This pick was the Mariners' big upside play, albeit one with significant risk. Phillips found his name in some top five rounds conversations coming out of high school just outside Houston last year, but rather than attend LSU when his asking price dropped him to the 35th round, he switched up his commitment to McLennan CC in Waco so he could be draft eligible this year. That paid off when he came out of the gate looking like he had taken a tangible step forward with his stuff. The fastball now sits in the mid 90's and can get up to 98, coming from a very loose arm puts some nice movement on it and that can hold that velocity deep into games as well. He's continuing to work on differentiating his curveball and slider, but he's made progress on that front and both could be plus pitches in time. The changeup isn't quite there yet, but Phillips only turned 19 in May, so he has plenty of time. The same goes for his command, which can be very spotty at times, but his arm works so well that the Mariners are confident they can continue to build that piece of his game. The 6'2" teenager has the look of an impact starting pitcher if he can continue to refine the rough edges of his game, though he'll need to continue the positive trajectory he's on in order to make the majors at all. Phillips' $1.05 million signing bonus was right at slot value for the 64th pick. Pre-draft profile here.
3-78: 2B Kaden Polcovich, Oklahoma State (unranked)
This was a little bit of a surprising pick, but an interesting one. Kaden Polcovich spent two years at Northwest Florida State CC before transferring back to Oklahoma to play for Oklahoma State, and he was off to a red hot start this year by slashing .344/.494/.578 with a pair of home runs and a 10/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games. That came on the heels of a strong Cape Cod League performance, so it wasn't a fluke. Listed at just 5'8", he's a high energy player that outplays his size consistently, sort of like Dustin Pedroia. Polcovich will attack pitches in the zone, but he's also a very disciplined hitter who will let the bad pitches by and draw plenty of walks when he doesn't see pitches he likes. He also brings a leveraged, powerful swing from the both sides of the plate, which enables him to hit for more power than you'd expect. Together, that's a projection for perhaps 10-15 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages, putting him right on the fringe of starting. The bat will have to carry him because despite playing gritty defense, his physical tools are fairly limited and he'll probably end up at second base or in the outfield without much net value provided. A theoretically low ceiling, non-money saving guy without much track record prior to the last calendar year is a fairly risky pick in the early third round, but I'm definitely interested to see where it goes (technically they did save money, but since they never redeployed it anywhere else, it didn't help the team in any way). Polcovich signed for $575,000, which was $218,000 below slot value (money which went wasted).
4-107: 3B Tyler Keenan, Mississippi (my rank: 112)
Keenan is a big power bat out of Ole Miss, where he's raked for three years with a .306/.419/.550 career line, 31 home runs, and a 104/72 strikeout to walk ratio over 139 games. The Raleigh-area native is a huge guy at a listed 6'4" and 240 pounds, waving the bat around like a twig in his hands. His strength enables him to produce big raw power from the left side of the plate, and he's gotten to it very consistently against good SEC competition with those 31 home runs over three years, including 15 in 68 games last year. He's also a pretty solid contact hitter for his size and profile, getting on base very consistently throughout his career and slashing .403/.488/.791 with seven home runs over 17 games against weaker competition in the shortened 2020 season. There is a slight hitch in his swing that is reminiscent of Gary Sheffield, one which he'll probably need to iron out a little bit to make enough contact in pro ball. Together, that's probably a 20-25 home run profile with decent on-base percentages, but even more so than Polcovich, his bat will have to carry him. He's listed as a third baseman and has played there so far, but he's not quite agile to handle a modern third baseman's range requirements and is more likely to end up at first base. Personally, I see him as a platoon bat who could be an impact #5-type hitter if he ends up towards the upper end of his projections. Keenan signed for $500,000, which was $43,500 below slot (money which they never redeployed anywhere else).
5-137: RHP Taylor Dollard, Cal Poly (unranked)
Dollard spent his first two years at Cal Poly as a very successful reliever, then was dominant in the same role in the Cape Cod League (1.55 ERA, 0.58 WHIP, 27/1 K/BB in 17.1 IP). His transition to the rotation went really well in 2020, where he had a 1.67 ERA and a 36/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings against some pretty solid competition that included Michigan and Baylor. The velocity isn't overwhelming, sitting around 90 and really only topping out at 93, but he throws a very good slider that functions as his out pitch and a workable changeup. Everything plays up because he commands it well, and the pitch metrics are very good on both the fastball and the slider. The 6'3" righty from the LA-area will need a healthy velocity boost to succeed as a starting pitcher in pro ball, giving him the ceiling of a #3/#4 guy if he can get consistently into the low 90's and improves his changeup. If he can't add 2-3 miles per hour to his fastball, he likely fits as a decent reliever. Personally, I like his chances to remain a starter. He signed right at slot value for $406,000.
Undrafted: C Ty Duvall, Vanderbilt (unranked)
Duvall has been a mainstay in Nashville for four years now, slashing a career .284/.423/.418 with eight home runs and an 83/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games. There isn't a ton of power here from the Ohio native, rather a consistent bat with plenty of experience both handling and hitting against high level pitching. Like most of these senior-sign catchers, he's a glove first player, and he was the guy behind the plate that helped Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter develop into arguably the top two pitching prospects remaining in college baseball.
Undrafted: C Matt Scheffler, Auburn (unranked)
His college jersey may have said Auburn, but the Mariners are Matt Scheffler's hometown team. He grew up just across the lake in Kirkland and graduated from Lake Washington High School, then spent two years at Piece Community College in Los Angeles. He transferred across the country to Auburn for his junior year, and after putting up unremarkable numbers (.260/.331/.342, 2 HR), he was off to a red hot start to 2020 with a .412/.516/.549 line, a home run, and a 4/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games. He's a good defender who will stick behind the plate, and his offensive emergence in 2020 shows that he should hit enough to move through the minors. He probably won't hit for a ton of power, but Scheffler has always been very good about making consistent contact and has struck out just 30 times in 77 games for the Tigers. Unless he suddenly starts tapping real power, it's a pretty clear backup profile, albeit with a little bit of upside at the plate.
No comments:
Post a Comment