1-14: 2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State
2-50: OF Evan Carter, Elizabethton HS (TN)
3-86: RHP Tekoah Roby, Pine Forest HS (FL)
4-115: LHP Dylan MacLean, Central Catholic HS (OR)
5-145: SS Thomas Saggese, Carlsbad HS (CA)
If prospect rankings were the be-all, end-all, this draft would look pretty ugly for the Rangers, because only two cracked my top 160, only three cracked MLB Pipeline's top 200, and second rounder Evan Carter didn't even make Baseball America's top 500. Fortunately, rankings don't actually mean a thing once you hit the baseball field, and the Rangers decided these were the five guys that would fit best in their farm system. Some of them I like, some I'm more iffy on, but it's a very on-brand group nonetheless. Interestingly, they also picked four high schoolers, a number only the Padres could match, but even San Diego had an extra pick and grabbed two college players to Texas' one. It was a unique class, for sure, so let's see how it turned out for them.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-14: 2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (my rank: 40)
The lone college hitter in this group, Foscue is an extremely safe bet to balance out the boom/bust risk of the other four. He's been as consistent (and as productive) as they come for the Bulldogs over the last two seasons, hitting .329/.407/.555 with 16 home runs and a 35/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 games. Despite a bit of a noisy setup, he finds the barrel extremely easily from a simple swing and at least with metal bats, he's shown significant impact. The question with Foscue, though, is how much of that impact will translate to wood. He hit just .255/.288/.362 in 14 games with the US Collegiate National Team, and while 14 games is too small a sample size to draw any real conclusions, it certainly didn't help. The Huntsville, Alabama native isn't the world's biggest or most athletic guy, but his elite plate discipline and barrel control have helped him play above his tools to this point. Does he continue to hit for impact with wood bats? I definitely think so. It's probably a 15-25 home run bat with high on-base percentages at best, which the Rangers will certainly take, but I also see a good chance he ends up more of a decent player than anything else. That's a great profile in the back of the first round or comp round, but here in the middle of the first round, it just strikes me as a little light. Still, you can't argue with the SEC production. He signed for $3.25 million (about slot value for pick #20), which was about $790,000 below slot at #14. Pre-draft profile here.
2-50: OF Evan Carter, Elizabethton HS, TN (unranked)
This was perhaps the most surprising pick of the draft outside of the first round. Carter went unranked on MLB Pipeline's top 200 and Baseball America's top 500 prospects, yet the Rangers liked him enough to select him 50th overall. Upon further investigation, he's a really interesting player. Coming from Elizabethton High School on the edge of the Smoky Mountains, Carter hasn't been seen much outside of the Northeast Tennessee high school ranks. Rangers fans might be happy to hear who he reminds me of: Zac Veen. Carter is a big guy at a listed 6'4", bringing plenty of loft and leverage from a projectable left handed swing. Personally, I think the only thing keeping him from being more well-known was not skill, but exposure. Since he wasn't seen much on the showcase circuit, it's hard to project on his hit tool, but I think that even adequate performance at summer events might have made him a household name in the scouting community. He's young, too, not turning 18 until August, and as he grows into that big frame, I could see him ending up with plus power. For now, the Rangers are buying the ~picture~ of a baseball player, since he absolutely looks like one with that swing. From there, they'll try to mold him into a real impact hitter with his high upside. He signed away from a Duke commitment for $1.25 million, which was about $220,000 below slot.
3-86: RHP Tekoah Roby, Pine Forest HS, FL (my rank: 149)
Florida produces a ton of prep talent from its major urban areas of Miami, Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville, but Roby comes from across the state over in Pensacola. He's an athletic 6'1" righty with a really loose arm, currently sitting in the low 90's with his fastball but steadily adding velocity and getting as high as 94 at times. He spins a really nice curveball that he's been getting more consistent with, and he's working on a changeup. On top of that, he's a good strike thrower, getting more consistent with his release point. Overall, it's not an overwhelming right now product, but the Rangers love the way his arm works and can easily project some added velocity once he gets a little more efficient with his weight transfer from his lower half. While most lists had him well outside of the top 100, a lot of evaluators thought he had a chance to rise this spring with the way he's trending, and the Rangers clearly bought in. It's a classic Rangers projection pick, and he should fit into this system really well. It cost them $775,000 to buy him out of a Troy commitment, which was $75,300 above slot.
4-115: LHP Dylan MacLean, Central Catholic HS, OR (unranked)
The Portland area boasted Phillies first rounder Mick Abel in this draft, but he wasn't the only exciting arm in the PDX. Over at Central Catholic High School, Dylan MacLean might not throw nearly as hard, but he's an interesting arm nonetheless. His fastball isn't anything special, sitting in the mid 80's for the most part, but he touched 92 in bullpens this spring and has a lot of room to fill out his 6'3" frame. There's a solid curveball as well with good top to bottom shape, and he adds in a changeup as a third pitch. Everything comes from a high overhand delivery that puts good angle on the ball, and he's a relatively polished strike thrower as well. It takes a lot of imagination to project on MacLean, because even if the velocity gains he made in bullpens this spring were for real, he's still left with current fringe-average velocity at best. He'll need to continue to add velocity to have a shot at a big league rotation, but the good news is that as he fills out that 6'3" frame, he has plenty of other starter's traits to work with. Additionally, with a July birthday, he's relatively young for a high school senior and has more time to physically develop. The Rangers bought him out of his Washington commitment for $1.2 million, which was just about $700,000 above slot, so they clearly are all in.
5-145: SS Thomas Saggese, Carlsbad HS, CA (unranked)
Staying on the West Coast, the Rangers finished off their draft with a fourth straight high schooler, San Diego-area infielder Thomas Saggese. He's the kind of guy that plays above his tools, consistently out-grinding his competition and getting great results on the field. He's routinely on time with his right handed swing and makes very consistent, hard contact, though that swing might need to be reworked a little bit because it's pretty short and opposite field-oriented. He still gets plenty of natural leverage and while he's not the biggest guy in the world at a listed six feet tall, he could grow into average power down the line to go with good on-base percentages. Defensively, he doesn't necessarily have the explosive athleticism a lot of teams look for in a shortstop, but he's proven more than capable there so far and has a chance to stick if he continues to improve like he has. Saggese has already proven to be a tough kid who can overcome adversity, having worked through and overcome PTSD after surviving a school shooting in elementary school. It's an interesting pick at the back of the draft for sure, one that could provide 10-15 home runs a year with good on-base percentages down the line – if he sticks at shortstop, that's a pretty attractive profile. Committed to Pepperdine, he instead signed for $800,000 ($424,800 above slot) to join the Rangers.
Undrafted: C Brady Smith, Florida (unranked)
Smith, the biggest splash the Rangers made in the undrafted free agent market, gives them a second player from the Florida Panhandle. He's shown a broad skill set at Florida, though to this point, he hasn't really broken out in any individual area. Smith hit .267/.362/.397 over his first two seasons for the Gators but was off to a slow start this year, slashing just .167/.235/.367 with two home runs and an 11/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games. He produces solid raw power from a compact 5'11" frame and a nice swing that gives him plenty of leverage, with a solid enough approach at the plate to get to it in games. He's somewhat of a streakier hitter who hasn't really put up flashy numbers at any point, but he's also been a solid enough performer both in the SEC and in the elite Cape Cod League to inspire confidence that he could be just an adjustment or two away from tapping into something legitimate. Defensively, it's a similar story, as he's shown promise behind the plate but hasn't quite been consistent enough back there to be confident he'll stick. The bat is a lot more enticing if he does catch, where he could profile as a solid backup, but he might have a hard time hitting his way to the bigs if he's forced to play a corner outfield spot or first base, where he's below average.
Undrafted: RHP Josh Stephan, South Grand Prairie HS, TX (unranked)
The Rangers did grab one hometown player in this class. DFW produces plenty of talent every year, and interestingly, it's typically concentrated in kind of the northern Mid-Cities region, kind of in the area between Lewisville and Colleyville/Keller. Don't ask me why, that's just what I noticed. I've noticed a lot less from the southern Mid-Cities, with Hunter Pence representing Arlington and Trevor Story and Kerry Wood representing Irving/Grand Prairie, but the Rangers picked up right hander Josh Stephan from Grand Prairie this time. He's a 6'1" right hander who was committed to play at Stephen F. Austin, typically sitting around 90 with his fastball and bumping a little higher without a ton of effort in his delivery. I couldn't find much additional information on him, so we'll have to see how it goes when he hits pro ball.
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