The Giants have a couple of exciting prospects at the top of their system, but once you get past Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos, there really isn't much going on here. There is a decent amount of upside in the system, but most players come with significant risk and overall I expect relatively few of these players to make meaningful big league contributions. The ones that do, though, could could be big. It's a little pitching heavy, though the consensus top two prospects in the system, Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos, are position players. Aside from Shaun Anderson and possibly Sean Hjelle, most pitching prospects in this system look to have a high relief risk.
Affiliates: AAA Sacramento River Cats, AA Richmond Flying Squirrels, High A San Jose Giants, Class A Augusta Green Jackets, Short Season Salem-Keizer Volcanos, complex level AZL (Orange and Black) and DSL Giants
The Headliner: C Joey Bart
Sometimes, things just work out, as was the case with 21 year old Joey Bart and the Giants. Pablo Sandoval's season ending, walk off home run in 2017 may have given the Tigers the first overall pick, and while Casey Mize would have been nice, Bart just fits perfectly into the Giants' plans. He'll be ready to take over at catcher just as Buster Posey is transitioned to a new position. Bart had a monster year at Georgia Tech this year, and after being selected second overall, he slashed .294/.364/.588 with 13 home runs and a 47/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games, mostly with Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has huge power, some of the best in the minors, though his plate discipline is relatively mediocre and contact may be a concern at the higher levels. He has worked hard to improve his defense and has a cannon behind the plate, and overall the package resembles Gary Sanchez. At the least, I expect Bart to at least be something of a Mike Zunino to the Giants, but honestly I think he'll iron out the contact issues and become and All Star. Look for him to start 2019 at Class A Augusta, but he'll likely be at High A San Jose sooner rather than later if he doesn't start there outright.
The Rest of the Hitters: OF Heliot Ramos, OF Chris Shaw, C Aramis Garcia, SS Abiatal Avelino, OF Heath Quinn, 3B Jacob Gonzalez, OF Sandro Fabian, 3B David Villar, SS Marco Luciano, and OF Alexander Canario
The Giants are not deep when it comes to minor league hitters, especially after headliner Joey Bart, so I decided to lump the rest of the interesting ones into one long section. There's one or two interesting bats in each phase of development for the Giants, and while the wealth is nice and spread out from top to bottom of the development ladder, there are really only two "impact" prospects on this list. 19 year old Heliot Ramos is the consensus #2 prospect in this system, right behind Bart, and may have the highest ceiling out of anyone. He was drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Puerto Rico in 2017, showcasing huge power and some good speed despite being extremely young for the draft class. Playing all of 2018 at just 18 years old, he slashed .245/.313/.396 with eleven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Augusta. While those numbers aren't exactly inspiring, he was one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League and he has plenty of time to develop. The stock isn't up from when he was drafted, but it's not really down either; we're still in wait-and-see mode, and the teenage outfielder still has the ceiling of a 30 homer bat with the ability to get on base and steal a few bags. Starting back at the top of the minors, 25 year olds Chris Shaw and Aramis Garcia, as well as 23 year old Abiatal Avelino, are looking to make an impact soon. Shaw probably has the best chance of the three, coming off a year where he slashed .259/.308/.505 with 24 home runs and a 144/21 strikeout to walk ratio across 101 games for AAA Sacramento. He didn't fare as well in 22 major league games (1 HR, .185/.274/.278), with big power and big strikeout concerns standing out. The Boston College product is limited defensively to the outfield and first base, so he'll have to make contact to stick in the majors, but he does have the upside of a 30 homer bat in the Lucas Duda or Matt Adams mold. Garcia, meanwhile, has been a prospect for a long time (he turns 26 in January) and as a catcher with Buster Posey currently manning the position and with Joey Bart breathing down his neck, Garcia's window of opportunity is fairly limited. In 2018, he slashed .233/.285/.381 with eleven home runs and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between AA Richmond and Sacramento, then hit .286/.308/.492 with four home runs in a 19 game MLB debut. He's pretty much decent across the board, with no glaring weaknesses but no real strengths either; he has some pop, can usually make contact, and is good enough behind the plate, but it all amounts more to a back-up profile than a starting one. Avelino came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade and had a nice year, slashing .283/.329/.438 with 15 home runs between AA and AAA, but that power surge is looking more like a mirage and he looks like a utility infielder. Slightly farther down into the minors, 23 year old Heath Quinn and 20 year olds Jacob Gonzalez and Sandro Fabian lead the mid-minors pack behind Ramos. Quinn is older and has been a regular producer, fairing well in his second run at the High A California League by slashing .300/.376/.485 with 14 home runs and a 98/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 96 games. I like the power and I think he makes enough contact to where he could be a productive major league bat, but he has some tweener risk and could end up a fourth outfielder. Gonzalez too is a power hitter, though he struggles to make contact and slashed .227/.296/.331 with eight home runs at Class A Augusta this year. The power is for real and he probably has more of it than Quinn, but he gets to it much less often and I think he could end up being a bust. Fabian, however, has a different profile. His .200/.260/.325 slash line with ten home runs and a 107/26 strikeout to walk ratio was extremely underwhelming in the High A California League, but he did play the whole season at just 20 years old and was fairly young for the level. He's a good defender in the outfield who has spent his whole minor league career playing up with guys older than him, and the Giants are just waiting for that bat to pick up. I think his long term outlook is probably fairly similar to Quinn's with less power and better defense, but he'll just take a different road to get there as a young kid playing up with older players rather than an older prospect hitting well against younger competition. Lastly, 21 year old David Villar, 17 year old Marco Luciano, and 18 year old Alexander Canario round out the interesting prospects in the low minors. Villar, just drafted out of USF in the eleventh round in 2018, is off to a hot start for his pro career by slashing .282/.342/.535 with 13 home runs and a 72/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between complex ball and Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has big power but his approach may be exploited as he moves up in the minors, and his bat will probably end up somewhere between Aramis Garcia and Chris Shaw in a couple of years. He's not considered a top prospect but I think he's one to watch. Luciano and Canario are the farthest off from the majors, with Canario having played just 111 pro games, all in complex ball (slashing .275/.376/.438 with 11 HR and 26 SB) and Luciano yet to step on the pro diamond. Both have very high ceilings and could honestly be All Stars. Luciano generates his power from a wiry 6'2" frame and plenty of loft in his swing, though I can see contact being a potential concern once he gets into games. Meanwhile, Canario has less present power but more bat speed, and I think altering his swing mechanics to give him more loft and to get him more balanced at the plate can help him take off; he has already shown strong plate discipline against complex ball competition. Luciano is currently a shortstop but is more likely a third baseman in the future, while Canario is a speedy center fielder.
Arms We Could See in 2019: Shaun Anderson, Logan Webb, Tyler Beede, Garrett Williams, and Ray Black
The Giants do a good job of converting upper-minors pitching into useable major league arms, but recently they've struggled to convert them into much more than just that: useable (we'll see what happens with Dereck Rodriguez). Here is the next wave, and while all have breakthrough potential, they probably will end up along the lines of the current crop of recently graduated arms, which includes Andrew Suarez, Chris Stratton, Steven Okert, and Reyes Moronta in addition to Rodriguez. 24 year old Shaun Anderson, acquired from Boston in the Eduardo Nunez deal, has since established himself as the system's top pitching prospect with a solid 2018. In 25 games (24 starts) between AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, the 6'4" righty went 8-7 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 127/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 141.1 innings, adapting well to the upper minors by showing strong command of his pretty good stuff. He looks like a back-end starter right now, but he has the best chance on this list to be the first home-grown impact pitcher for the Giants since Hunter Strickland came up in 2014, and the first impact starter since Madison Bumgarner in 2009. 21 year old Logan Webb quietly had a very good season in 2018, going 2-5 with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 100/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings between High A San Jose and Richmond. The 6'2" righty is extremely raw after missing significant time with injuries, but his mid 90's fastball got him all the way up to AA this year at the age of 21 despite the missed time. The rest of his game needs significant work, but the Giants hope his 2018 breakthrough will lead to development in those areas. If not, he profiles as a middle reliever, but he's one to watch in 2019. 25 year old Tyler Beede was a first round pick (14th overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2014, and after rocketing up to AA by 2015 and pitching well at the level in 2016, he has stalled ever since. In 2018, he was 4-9 with a 6.64 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an 81/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings between Sacramento and rehab work, showing explosive stuff at times and flattening out at others. His fastball can sit anywhere in the 90's and the quality of his offspeeds are just as inconsistent, but his command has been getting worse. The Giants shifted him to the bullpen mid-season but the results weren't much better, and the clock is ticking; he'll be 26 in May. 24 year old Garrett Williams has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career, missing significant time with injuries while at Oklahoma State and subsequently struggling with command in the minors. He had a 2.32 ERA and a 96/35 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Augusta and High A San Jose in 2017, but limped to a 6.06 ERA, a 1.92 WHIP, and a 73/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings with Richmond this season. He has an explosive fastball/curveball combination that gets plenty of swings and misses, but he can't seem to throw strikes. The 6'1" lefty was converted to relief midway through the season, where like Beede he still didn't find success, and I think he's better suited there. I still like Williams and think he could take a step forward and become a useful reliever in the majors, especially given how volatile he has been throughout his career; 2018 could end up being the aberration rather than 2017. Lastly, 28 year old Ray Black is an interesting one, as you would expect from a 28 year old that I still choose to write about. Injuries have kept him off the mound for long periods of time, and he didn't even through his first professional pitch until he was almost 24. Now, he is armed with an exceptional fastball that sits in the upper 90's and has hit 104 in the past, leading to a 2.52 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 66/12 strikeout to walk ratio over just 35.2 innings between Richmond and Sacramento; that's a 48.5% strikeout rate. He had a 6.17 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 33/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings in the majors (34.7% strikeout rate), and he profiles as an extremely interesting middle reliever.
Projection Arms: Melvin Adon, Sean Hjelle, Juan De Paula, Seth Corry, Gregory Santos, and Jake Wong
Again, there is not much depth, but the Giants do have a couple of interesting arms down lower on the farm. 24 year old Melvin Adon, who won't reach the majors in 2019 and therefore doesn't quite fit on the previous list, is the most advanced in this section. He ran into some trouble with High A San Jose in 2018, going 2-6 with a 5.03 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 79/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings, but he has recently been strong in the Arizona Fall League. The Giants have tried to develop him as a starter, but after 2018 he looks more like a power reliever with an upper 90's fastball and a good slider. 21 year old Sean Hjelle, drafted in the second round (45th overall) out of Kentucky in 2018, might be the safest bet in this whole group, finishing his pro debut with a 5.06 ERA but a nice 22/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings at Short Season Salem-Keizer. At 6'11", he is a massive string bean that comes at hitters on a steep downhill plane with a low 90's fastball and a good curveball, with his overall game plan resembling Chris Young more than it does Randy Johnson. He looks like a very tall back-end starter at this point but could move quickly. 21 year old Juan De Paula came over from the Yankees in the Andrew McCutchen deal, and while the Yankees moved him along slowly, the Giants might choose to speed that up. De Paula posted a 1.72 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with a 55/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings between the Yankees' Short Season affiliate and one very good start with the Giants' Class A Augusta. He comes with high risk as a low minors pitcher who has never cracked 80 innings in a season, but there is a lot of upside to unlock and he might have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Giants' system. Look for anything from an A-ball flameout to an impact starter. 20 year old Seth Corry might be in a similar spot to De Paula, though he's a lefty with less of a track record. Corry was sharp in 38 innings in complex ball (2.61 ERA, 42/17 K/BB) but struggled in 19.2 innings in Short Season ball (5.49 ERA, 17/15 K/BB). His best attribute is an explosive curveball, but he needs to throw more strikes and has a lot of development to go through. I'd argue that his ceiling and floor are both slightly lower than that of De Paula. Meanwhile, 19 year old Gregory Santos spent the whole season in Short Season ball and put up a 4.53 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a 46/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings. He has a good combination of stuff and control for his age, but he just needs to learn to put it together. He keeps the ball on the ground remarkably well, and he could move up as a back-end starter. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Wong was drafted after Hjelle in the third round in 2018 (80th overall), then posted a 2.30 ERA and a 27/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 Short Season innings in his debut. The initial returns are promising for Wong, though I ultimately think he ends up in the bullpen with an underwhelming stuff/command package for his age.
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