Showing posts with label Kaiden McCarthy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kaiden McCarthy. Show all posts

Monday, November 2, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

Full list of draftees

The Braves' loaded draft class sure is an interesting one, as they moved money all around with some of the most significant bonus pool games in this year's draft. In signing first rounder AJ Gracia and third rounder Jensen Hirschkorn for the same $4 million bonus, they essentially traded the #9 and #84 picks for two #23 picks by bonus value. In fact, they saved over $3.5 million with their first two picks then unloaded roughly the same $3.5 million above slot value over the next two picks. Despite starting with two college bats, it was yet another high school-heavy class for Atlanta with five prep arms and two prep bats. Athleticism and projection were a theme throughout the draft, as they chased upside, not unusual for this organization. Most teams will save money by signing seniors for $10K, $5K or less in rounds 7-10, but the Braves took that to the extreme by getting eighth rounder Jacob Jarrell, ninth rounder Parker Brosius, and tenth rounder Ben Zeigler-Namoa for a puny $500 each, saving about $653,000 in the process.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-9: OF AJ Gracia, Virginia
Slot value: $6.68 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($2.68 million below slot value).
My rank: #19. MLB Pipeline: #19. ESPN: #24.
When the Braves first made this pick, I was a little bit skeptical of spending a top ten pick of AJ Gracia, whom I saw as more of a second half of the first round pick. When they got him to sign for more than two and a half million below slot value, just above the value of the #23 pick, I suddenly think it's really interesting. Gracia began his career at Duke, where he burst onto the scene with a huge freshman season in 2024 by starting every game and setting school freshman records for home runs (14) and RBI (58). After similar numbers as a sophomore, he followed head coach Chris Pollard to UVA and had his best year yet, finishing his college career with 43 home runs and a .317/.459/.583 slash line across 176 games. Gracia is as professional a hitter as you'll find in this class. Built like a power hitter at 6'3", 195 pounds, he takes a very patient, almost passive approach at the plate and never seems to get rattled. He's probably more likely to take a strike than swing at a ball, and can often end up in two strike counts without lifting the bat off his shoulder. Even so, he has plus bat to ball ability and rarely strikes out, consistently looking calm and collected in those two strike counts. Gracia has consistently tapped his power in games, homering at least fourteen times in each of his three college seasons, by looking to turn on and lift the ball to the pull side and letting his size provide the natural leverage. The exit velocities are lower than you'd expect given his profile, grading out for fringe-average raw power if that's how you look at it and making him one of the rare players whose game power plays significantly better than his raw power. Another hitter with a similar profile was Marlins 2022 #6 overall pick Jacob Berry, who so far has stalled in AAA. EV data can be noisy in college ball with metal bats and the Braves are clearly comfortable with the power, so if he continues tapping his power in games in pro ball, he should profile for 20+ per season with high on-base percentages and hit in the middle of the lineup. Defensively, he is a fringy runner with a fringy arm but his instincts help him hold his own in the outfield, where he likely fits as an average left fielder.

PPI-26: OF Carter Beck, Indiana State
Slot value: $3.58 million. Signing bonus: $2.68 million ($894,700 below slot value).
My rank: #59. MLB Pipeline: #193. ESPN: #70.
Based on these three rankings (plus Baseball America at #69), it appears I was the high guy on Carter Beck and he still went 33 picks above where I ranked him, though he signed way below slot value for roughly the value of the #37 pick. Beck has steadily built his prospect status from the ground up in what has been a pretty remarkable rise to stardom. He grew up in the tiny town of Carnduff, Saskatchewan (population 1,150) about 150 miles from the nearest city of any size, Regina, and about 215 miles from Winnipeg. Lightly recruited out of Carnduff High School, he ended up at the University of Mary in Bismarck, North Dakota and made the most of his still-limited exposure there. He transferred to Indiana State and immediately rose to the occasion, swatting 27 home runs and slashing .342/.432/.600 over 113 games across two seasons in Terre Haute. By now, the secret was fully out, and Beck rose through the draft rankings to eventually settle in the second round range by the time his junior year came to a close. The Braves, of course, are even bigger fans. Not huge at 5'11", he has gotten stronger and now taps above average power in games, while the exit velocities indicate that he could have potentially plus power in the tank. He makes a ton of contact and in 2026, walked more (12.3%) than he struck out (11.6%). The big question, of course, is whether that production will continue to come against better competition given much of his 2026 schedule came against mid major programs throughout the Midwest, though he did go 4-11 (.364) with a triple, a walk, and just one strikeout in a three game stretch against NC State, Wake Forest, and Miami in February. Defensively, his athleticism and plus speed help him play a solid center field, which could improve further as he gets more refinement in the Braves' system. In fact, he also starred in hockey, volleyball, and track in high school. Atlanta is buying great athleticism, all-around offensive ability, speed, and a rocket ship upward trajectory in what they think is a potential significant offensive and defensive contributor. He has a chance to hit 20+ home runs per season with high batting averages and a handful of stolen bases every year at the big league level.

2-48: RHP Kaiden McCarthy, Vermont Academy [VT]
Slot value: $2.08 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($415,600 above slot value).
My rank: #70. MLB Pipeline: #61. ESPN: #52.
After saving over $3.5 million with their first two picks, Atlanta started to spend a little bit of those savings on Kaiden McCarthy, signing him away from a Tennessee commitment for the value of pick #40. One of the best prospects to ever come out of the state of Vermont, he has tremendous upside and is coming off an excellent spring. The stuff has blossomed as of late and his fastball now sits in the low to mid 90's, reaching as high as 99 this year with some ride on his four seamer and run on his two seamer. He has a hard, high spin slider that is still searching for its identity a little bit but should take another step forward in pro ball. There is a hard downer curveball as well, again more of an average pitch but a useful starting point going into pro ball. McCarthy's changeup is very advanced for a small town, cold weather arm, showing great fade and looking like an above average pitch already. Listed at 6', 185 pounds, he's not huge but is extremely athletic and has some room to add more good weight. He works well down the mound and despite showing some head whack and effort in his delivery, he repeats it well and shows surprisingly average command. With further refinement of his delivery, he should get to above average command given his athleticism and with his velocity, that's dangerous. Further refinement of his breaking balls as well gives him upper half of the rotation upside, especially combined with his youth having still been 17 on draft day. There's significant risk here with a shorter track record, some inconsistent performances, and a lack of size, but he has plenty of ingredients become the best player in this Braves draft.

3-84: LHP Jensen Hirschkorn, Kingsburg HS [CA]
Slot value: $973,900. Signing bonus: $4 million ($3.03 million above slot value).
My rank: #53. MLB Pipeline: #56. ESPN: #58.
The Braves' money saved virtually all went to Jensen Hirschkorn, who received the same $4 million signing bonus as their 9th overall pick, AJ Gracia, making this the largest over-slot bonus in draft history. It took roughly the value of the #23 pick to pry him away from an LSU commitment, and the Braves believe he is their future ace. He really jumped onto the radar with some extremely loud performances last summer on the showcase circuit, then while he didn't necessarily build on them in the spring, he did maintain what ultimately became a first round (bonus-wise) profile. The fastball sat in the low 90's in the spring but had reached as high as 96 over the summer, showing running and riding action to blow past hitters. He has a nice low 80's slider with tilt to miss bats, and in pro ball he'll work on selling it a little better with his arm slot. The changeup is behind the first two pitches and will be a development priority, though again it has taken steps forward and scouts are comfortable that it will become at least an average pitch. Hirschkorn's outlier traits begin with his size, listed at 6'7", 205 pounds with tons of room to continue to fill out. He's an excellent athlete who starred on the basketball court as well, and that athleticism translates beautifully to the mound. There are all kinds of lanky young pitchers out there, and they usually pick one or the other as soft-tossing command artists (think Sean Hjelle out of Kentucky a few years back) or wild  power pitchers (the classic example is early career Randy Johnson), but Hirschkorn may have the rare combination of both. That athleticism allows him to repeat his delivery very well for above average command across his arsenal while still throwing with intention and running his velocity up into the mid 90's. The Braves believe focusing solely on baseball in a pro development program will help him tap even more velocity while maintaining that command, and if his secondary stuff takes a step forward as well, he has ace upside. The Central Valley product brings the clay, and the Braves will hope to mold it.

4-112: RHP Cole Dennis, Bishop Snyder HS [FL]
Slot value: $697,700. Signing bonus: $523,275 ($174,425 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #242. ESPN: #116.
Dipping back into the high school pitching demographic, Atlanta actually saved money on Cole Dennis, a pop-up arm out of Jacksonville committed to stay home and attend Jacksonville University. Not as well-known as other arms around the talent-rich state of Florida, his stuff took a big step forward during his senior year and saw him rocket up draft boards, culminating in an impressive performance at the MLB Draft Combine in June. Dennis' fastball now sits in the low to mid 90's and reaches 97 in short stints, though it can be fairly ordinary in shape. He has sharpened up his downer slider which now looks like a power breaking ball, giving him a real potential swing and miss weapon, while his firm changeup remains behind the other two. His strikes can get scattered at times as well, giving Atlanta another area to hone in. The 6'4" righty is very physical already despite still being 17 on draft day, looking the part of a big league starting pitcher if he can develop the rest of his game. For now, Dennis carries significant reliever risk given his two pitch mix and spotty command, so it will take adding the changeup and sharpening the command in order to stick in a big league rotation. The idea of a two pitch power arm always sounds good out of the bullpen, and the stuff usually takes a step forward when thrust into that role as well. It's nice value for half a million when most high upside high school arms usually go for a lot more.

5-144: LHP Wil Libbert, Mississippi
Slot value: $511,400. Signing bonus: $447,500 ($63,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #181. ESPN: #178.
Back on the college side, the Braves dipped into the SEC to take Wil Libbert out of Ole Miss. A highly regarded prep prospect out of rural Central Missouri, Tommy John surgery ended his senior season and wiped out his freshman year at Missouri as well. Returning as a sophomore in 2025, he showed big stuff but was hit hard. Ole Miss liked the stuff and brought him to Oxford, where they made some mechanical tweaks in hopes of getting the most out of the talented lefty. He again pitched to an ERA over six and failed to reach a 24% strikeout rate for the second year in a row, but the stuff remains as enticing as ever and now the Braves will give it a crack. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and reaches as high as 98, though its life is ordinary and it gets hit over the plate. Ole Miss had him lean heavily on his offspeed stuff in 2026, which consists of a solid slider with nice depth, a tighter cutter that creates weak contact, and a solid changeup with nice separation off his fastball and especially off his cutter. The 6'1" lefty moves very well on the mound and the ball explodes out of his hand, checking the visual boxes scouts like to see as a potentially talented future big league arm. The Braves may play around with Libbert's arm slot to create more movement on his fastball, allowing him to more aggressively attack the zone with it, and indeed getting better results with the heater may be the key to sticking in the rotation. He's strong and repeats his delivery fairly well, with a deep enough arsenal to make it work over longer outings. Atlanta would like to develop him as a back-end starter, with long relief a fallback role if he continues to get hit over the plate like he did at Missouri and Mississippi.

6-173: RHP Tyson Grulkowski, Muskego HS [WI]
Slot value: $389,900. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($207,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: #222.
The Braves got another interesting prep arm in Tyson Grulkowski, who signed a bit above slot value to eschew a South Florida commitment. Like many preps in this Braves class, Grulkowski's fastball has ticked up as of late and sat in the low 90's this spring, touching as high as 95 when he had previously mostly lived in the upper 80's. The fastball comes with nice run and sink, playing extremely well off his big, diving slider in the mid to upper 70's that can cut across the plate end to end with high spin rates. He can turn it into more of a curveball at times, but he's still working to separate those shapes. A decent changeup rounds out the arsenal and will need more refinement but has the makings of a solid pitch. Grulkowski is a true sidearmer who creates great angle with his pitches, making hitters cover a wide range of movement profiles and protect both sides of the plate at all times. Like most preps, especially of the sidearm variety, his command is still coming along but he is repeating his delivery well. The 6'5" righty brings plenty of size to help him profile as a potential starting pitcher as well. To get there, he'll have to continue to add power across his arsenal while also getting more consistent with his secondary stuff. If not, he could live as a sidearming fastball/slider reliever whose velocity should get the necessary boost just by virtue of shortening to one inning stints.

7-202: C Jack Brenner, Fond du Lac HS [WI]
Slot value: $307,300. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($940,200 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: #158.
Making it two straight prep picks out of the state of Wisconsin, the Braves believe they have found a real sleeper in Jack Brenner, who signed for far more money than expected rather than attend Oklahoma. Receiving roughly the value of the #69 pick, he has a chance to be the Braves' catcher of the future if he continues to develop like they expect. Brenner is an extremely athletic, six foot tall catcher who turns in plus run times at a position where average is considered "fast." He pops out of the crouch quickly and gets down the lines to make plays in front of him, giving him great ceiling defensively. The finer aspects of his glovework still need polish, but nothing Atlanta believes they can't teach. His above average arm as well provides a boon to his defensive value. At the plate, Brenner has a tight, gashing right handed swing with really quick hands that help him make a ton of contact, so despite coming from a smaller city in the Upper Midwest, scouts are confident he'll hit at the next level. Because his swing is flatter, he doesn't show much game power yet, but the quick hands and some impressive exit velocities at the MLB Draft Combine could point to average or better power if the Braves can successfully implement some swing changes. In all, it is a lot of upside as a potential 15 home run, high batting average catcher who can swipe a few bags to boot. So despite ranking outside the top 150 on virtually every public board, he seems well worth the investment of a top-75 signing bonus.

9-262: OF Parker Brosius, Georgia Tech
Slot value: $212,000. Signing bonus: $500 ($211,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Saving money in the ninth round, the Braves looked into their own backyard to sign Parker Brosius for a puny $500 (though like all other draftees, he does get a $2,500 contingency bonus). Brosius grew up in Suwanee, a northeastern suburb about 27 miles from downtown Atlanta, where he attended Lambert High School then stayed home to attend Georgia Tech. He was mostly a defensive replacement as a freshman in 2023, then posted a .442 on-base percentage in a larger role as a sophomore. He had never hit for much impact and the offense dried up in his junior year, when he hit just .234/.376/.323 across 55 games, and he entered his senior year with just three total career home runs in 131 games. However, he turned things around in a big way in 2026, crushing twelve home runs and slashing .329/.504/.859 in a part-time role, catching his hometown Braves' eye and earning him a spot as a money-saving senior sign. Despite the power uptick, Brosius is a speed and on-base type who walked (22.0%) far more than he struck out (14.6%) in 2026. He's a very patient hitter who has always run high on-base percentages, and for the first time in 2026, began to do real damage when pitchers did challenge him in the zone. The power is probably fringy, but with the way he has learned to turn on the ball, it may play up in pro ball with wood bats. Brosius is also an excellent baserunner who has stolen 28 bases in 30 tries (93.3% success) in his career in Atlanta, with his plus speed also helping him play a strong center field for the Yellow Jackets. Atlanta will work him up through the system as a potential defensive replacement down the road, with the hopes that he can continue to do enough damage in the zone to keep pitchers nibbling and keep drawing his walks. He turned 23 a month after the draft, but may move quickly through the minors. Not bad for $500.

11-322: 3B Ryne Barker, Casteel HS [AZ]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($547,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #197. Baseball America: #323.
Dipping back into their bonus pool to start off the back half of the draft, the Braves gave Ryne Barker fourth round money to sign him away from a Texas Tech commitment. He's a leadoff type with a slappy, all-fields approach that plays very well with his plus speed. Barker loves to gash line drives around the field and put his wheels to work, and the Braves believe he'll make enough contact to hit for a reasonable average in pro ball. He's very skinny at 6'1", 175 pounds, but shows solid bat speed and can turn on the ball for some sneaky power, including launching a ball 429 feet at the MLB Draft Combine – the fifth longest max-distance for a high school player at the event. It remains to be seen where the Braves direct his approach, whether to make him a .270-ish hitter with 10-15 home runs per season or a .250-ish hitter with 15-20 or more, both at his peak projection. Defensively, he has the athleticism to profile virtually anywhere on the field, having played third base at his high school in the Phoenix suburbs and finding himself drafted at that position for the Braves. He has the speed and arm strength to stick on that side of the field, with some thinking the speed could play at shortstop if he gets more consistent with his glovework, but either way he will need refinement. There is also a chance he ends up in the outfield, where his speed and arm strength could make him a solid center fielder. The median outcome is probably that of a super-utility type who hits for some average and steals a few bases. Barker is extremely old for a high school pick, having turned 19 back in December which would have made him an age-appropriate college freshman. For that reason, the Braves would have to evaluate him more as a JuCo prospect rather than a prep, but it seems regardless that they were very excited by the profile.