Pirates Get: RHP Chris Archer (3-5, 4.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 102/31 K/BB, Age 29)
Rays Get: OF Austin Meadows (5 HR, .292/.327/.468, 4 SB, 110 wRC+, Age 23)
RHP Tyler Glasnow (1-2, 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 72/34 K/BB, Age 24)
Player to be named later
After years of rumors that he would be moved, the Rays finally shipped star pitcher Chris Archer north to Pittsburgh. It's an especially big day for Pittsburgh, who is usually on the other end of deals like this (see Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen, Tony Watson, Neil Walker, Mark Melancon, you get it). This deal certainly accomplishes a goal for both teams, and while it makes a bit more sense for Tampa than it does for Pittsburgh, in my opinion, both teams come out winners.
The Pirates were sitting at 40-48 coming off their fifth straight loss on July 7th, but they have turned it around to go 15-4 since then and now sit at 55-52, just 3.5 games back of the Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card. In adding star pitcher Chris Archer, ownership sent a clear message to the team; we believe in you, and let's win now. Of course, the cost was steep, perhaps too steep, but the reality is that Archer does change the dynamic of this team. It's unclear who draws the short straw in the current rotation, though it looks like it will be Joe Musgrove or Nick Kingham, with Archer settling in at the top with Ivan Nova, Jameson Taillon, and Trevor Williams. Archer himself is a bit of a mixed bag. I'm not backtracking on the statement that he changes the dynamic of the team: his vibrant personality, high strikeout totals, partial track record of success, and team-friendly contract (his options run through 2021 and total just $24 million for 2019-2021) provide a big jolt to the Pirates. However, when you look at the numbers, Archer is more of a mid-rotation starter than an ace. From 2013-2015, he was great, even ace-like, going 31-29 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 89 starts, even striking out 252 batters (29%) in 2015. In 2016, his ERA jumped to 4.02 but he still struck out 233 batters (27.4%), then it was more of the same in 2017, when his ERA was 4.07 and he struck out 249 (29.2%). This year, his ERA is up to 4.31 and his strikeout rate is down to 24.7%, and at this point I think he is who he has been over the past three seasons rather than the previous three seasons from 2013-2015. Still, 24.7% is a high strikeout rate, and when you strike out guys at that rate while keeping your walks down like Archer does, you're not likely to see your ERA jump much higher than the 4.31 it currently sits at. In the end, they probably gave up too much, but it's a deal whose message is perhaps more important than its personnel. For his career, the Raleigh-area native is 54-68 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 1146/347 strikeout to walk ratio (25.7% to 7.8%) over 1063 innings, all with the Rays.
Meanwhile, the Rays have to be very happy with the value they pulled out of Archer, and this trade is very on-brand for the team. They somehow always manage to rebuild without tanking, which is very rare for small market teams, and it looks like they'll be ready to contend as soon as 2019. With Jake Bauers, Willy Adames, Christian Arroyo, Blake Snell, and a hoard of young pitchers just breaking into the majors, a core is forming and it could surprise everyone. Because of this, the Rays brought back two young, post-hype players who are already in the majors and can contribute immediately, and I think that's great for them. I'll start with Austin Meadows, who was drafted ninth overall out of high school outside Atlanta in 2013. It's been a bumpy road since then, as he has spent significant time on the disabled list in every season except 2015, but he is finally healthy this year and the results have been great. In 49 games with the Pirates, he is slashing .292/.327/.468 with five home runs and four stolen bases, good for a very respectable 110 wRC+. I think that's about indicative of his true talent, and over a full season, that's borderline All Star caliber. If he continues to stay healthy and get more time on the field under his belt, it's not hard to envision him as a 20/20 player, and it's easy to forget he just turned 23 in May. Kevin Kiermaier, Tommy Pham, and Carlos Gomez have the three starting outfield spots for now, but Gomez doesn't seem like much of a road block and Meadows should get plenty of playing time. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow was at one time one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, and for good reason; to date, over 118 minor league games (117 starts), his performance record looks like this: 45-21, 2.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 785/278 K/BB (33% to 11.7%) over 593.1 innings. However, his stock is down after years of not being able to translate that success to the majors. His extended look in 2017 was especially ugly, as he went 2-7 with a 7.69 ERA, a 2.02 WHIP, and a 56/44 strikeout to walk ratio (18.4% to 14.4%) over 62 innings, his lack of command really hurting him. They shifted him to the bullpen this year and the results have been moderately better: 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 72/34 K/BB (29.6% to 14%), the strikeout rate noticeably up but the lack of command still keeping him from being a true difference maker. He turns just 25 in a few weeks and a change of scenery should do him good, and if the Rays can get his command under control (no pun intended) then his ceiling is not too far off from Chris Archer. For his career, he is 3-11 with a 5.79 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 152/91 strikeout to walk ratio (23.3% to 13.9%) over 141.1 innings. Additionally, don't discount the player to be named later, as he is reportedly supposed to be a more than just a throw in.
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