First 5 rounds: Mason Denaburg (1-27), Tim Cate (2-65), Reid Schaller (3-101), Jake Irvin (4-131), Gage Canning (5-161)
Also notable: Chandler Day (7-221), Tyler Cropley (8-251), Carson Shaddy (10-311), Aaron Fletcher (14-431), Jacob Rhinesmith (18-551), Cole Wilcox (37-1121)
I'll go a little bit more in depth with this one since I'm a Nationals fan based in Virginia where a lot of my readership is as well. Like last year, the Nats focused on pitching this year, taking six pitchers in the first seven rounds. They also stuck to college players, also on-brand for them, taking 31 straight from the college or JuCo ranks after selecting a high schooler with their first pick. Personally, I don't really like the pitching-heavy strategy the Nationals employ, as I feel they've been better with hitters. Guys like Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Michael A. Taylor, and Wilmer Difo are contributing at the major league level and current prospects like Carter Kieboom, Daniel Johnson, and Luis Garcia are coming along nicely. The problem though is that the Nationals have exported an entire farm system's worth of pitching prospects in the last couple seasons (Jesus Luzardo, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Nick Pivetta, McKenzie Mills, and Tyler Watson just to name a few) that the system is void of any real pitching prospects outside of Erick Fedde, Wil Crowe, Seth Romero, and maybe Ben Braymer, Nick Raquet, and Sterling Sharp.
1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (my rank: 23)
The Nationals love drafting pitchers who fall due to injury or other non-performance related problems early in the draft; see Lucas Giolito (eventual Tommy John, 2012), Erick Fedde (Tommy John, 2014), Jesus Luzardo (Tommy John, 2016), and Seth Romero (delinquency, 2017). Denaburg is the next in that line, having fallen due to biceps issues that caused him to miss a few months this spring. The 6'3" high school right handed pitcher from Merritt Island, Florida is very athletic, having the opportunity to pitch, hit, and kick (for the football team) at the University of Florida if he had turned the Nationals down. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball easily and can get it up to 97, and he also throws a curveball with good shape and a decent changeup. It's all commanded pretty well, and with some mechanical improvements, he could have above average to plus command in the end. Adding power to his curveball and drop to his changeup, along with the improved command, could make him a #2 starter or even an ace. While that sounds like a lot to improve on, being only three steps forward from ace potential is great for the back of the first round, especially when we're talking about a high schooler that is still just 18. Even two of those three adjustments could make him a mid-rotation starter, and it would really only take one to get him to the majors in some capacity. He signed for $3 million, which is $527,300 above slot, though the Nationals will move him cautiously until he proves he is past the biceps issues.
2-65: LHP Tim Cate (my rank: 71)
While Cate is one of the more well-known names in this part of the draft, he was somewhat hard to get a read on due to inconsistency. The UConn ace had his best year as a freshman in 2016 (5-1, 2.73 ERA, 101/27 K/BB) before regressing a bit as a sophomore (4-3, 3.33 ERA, 102/31 K/BB) and missing some time as a junior (5-4, 2.91 ERA, 67/19 K/BB). The 6' lefty lacks much projection on the mound due to his shorter stature, but the present stuff is pretty good. He throws a fastball in the low 90's but his real weapon is an excellent curveball with both depth and power, one which he can throw in any count. He has a changeup too, and if he can improve it, that will be a very effective three pitch arsenal. The problem with him is consistency, as his stuff has generally remained stable, but his command has wobbled considerably. When the command isn't on, he falls behind in the count and his stuff becomes more hittable, leading to too many base runners. He has had stretches where his command was in place, and in those stretches he looked like a potential top 50 pick or even a first rounder. Clearly, the key for him will be to get more consistent with that command, and he could push through as a #3 starter. One bonus is that he is very young for his class, not turning 21 until September, which would buy him time if the forearm issues that were bothering him flare back up. He signed for $986,200, right at slot, and he has allowed just one run on two hits, one walk, and four strikeouts in five innings so far in the short season New York-Penn League.
3-101: RHP Reid Schaller (unranked)
I liked the Denaburg pick and wasn't opposed to the Cate pick, but I'm not so sure about this one. Schaller is a high ceiling, low floor right hander out of Vanderbilt who missed all of his freshman season in 2017 with Tommy John surgery and didn't pitch all that much this year. In 21 games (2 starts), the 6'3" righty put up a 3.77 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 39/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 28.2 innings. Used mostly in relief, he throws a mid 90's fastball that can touch 98 and his slider can be a plus pitch at times. However, his command isn't all that great and the slider is inconsistent, so he can get blown up on occasion. The Nationals may try to run him out as a starter, where his fastball would probably dip down into the low 90's, but his slider and command will really have to take steps forward for that to work and he'll also have to develop a changeup. At this point, he looks like a reliever, and one with some risk to it, so I'm not a fan of this pick. Schaller signed for $555,100, right at slot, and he threw two perfect innings with three strikeouts in his rookie level Gulf Coast League debut.
4-131: RHP Jake Irvin (unranked)
Irvin is a 6'6" right hander who has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Oklahoma. This year, he finished 6-2 with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 115/28 strikeout to walk ratio, all career bests. Though he has made 38 starts over three seasons in Norman, he's just a two pitch guy at this point with a fastball and a slider. That said, the fastball is in the low 90's with good run and the slider has hard, albeit early, break. Those two pitches play off each other well, and if he can add a changeup, he has a chance to stick in the back end of the rotation. If not, with his above average command, he has the floor of a major league reliever who could work his way into the later innings. If Schaller is the high ceiling, low floor pick, Irvin is the opposite. He signed for $550,000, which is $135,500 above slot.
5-161: OF Gage Canning (my rank: 93)
I like this pick a lot. Canning is an undersized outfielder out of Arizona State who finished a huge junior year slashing .369/.426/.648 with nine home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. Even though he's not big, standing at 5'10", I think his power will play up at the next level and his speed can make him a multi-dimensional player. He has a very strong swing, and while his 20.5% strikeout rate was a bit high, the swing won't need much tweaking so he'll be able to focus on improving his barrel control. Right now, it's a fourth outfielder profile, but I think he could outplay that end end up a starter who hits 15-20 home runs per season while posting on base percentages in the .330-.350 range and stealing a few bases. He signed for $308,900, and he's off to a hot start. In 14 games in the New York-Penn League, he slashed .315/.373/.593 with eight extra base hits (including two home runs) and an 18/5 strikeout to walk ratio, becoming one of the first 2018 draftees to earn a promotion to Class A yesterday.
Others: 7th rounder Chandler Day, a 6'5" right hander, was a potential top 100 pick out of high school in 2015, but instead went to school at Vanderbilt and has been decent there. This year, he was 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 47/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 innings, showing strikeout ability with a complete arsenal. He's still more talent and projection than current stuff, and while top flight Vanderbilt coaching couldn't bring it all out of him, pro coaching could. He hold his own on the Cape over two years (3.89 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 42/25 K/BB). 8th rounder Tyler Cropley had a huge senior year as the catcher for Iowa, slashing .342/.449/.578 with nine home runs and a 28/30 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a good defender and will stick behind the plate, and he should have the power to get at least to the upper minors. His swing is long, but it is conducive to power and helps him make the most out of his 5'11" frame, and he kept his strikeout rate down at 11.5% this year. It'll probably rise, but a catcher with power and at least the chance to hit for power is a good find in the eighth round. 10th rounder Carson Shaddy is as familiar a face as there is in Fayetteville, growing up in the town and spending four years as a regular for the University of Arkansas. The redshirt senior had his best year this year, slashing .330/.426/.609 with 13 home runs and a 63/27 strikeout to walk ratio as the Razorbacks came one out away from a National Championship. The infielder most likely has a utility ceiling, and he turns 24 in August, but Cardinals star Matt Carpenter was also drafted as a redshirt senior out of TCU. 14th rounder Aaron Fletcher had a great senior year at the University of Houston, going 7-3 with a 2.19 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 78/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings. He's more about command and deception than about velocity and stuff, sitting around 90 with his sinking fastball but hiding and commanding it well to help it play up. The 6' lefty could be a valuable reliever in the near future. 18th rounder Jacob Rhinesmith, an outfielder out of Western Kentucky who slashed .306/.383/.555 with 14 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio. He has an intriguing combination of power and speed, and when that's combined with the potential ability to play center field, it's a potential fourth outfielder in the 18th round. 37th rounder Cole Wilcox is a first round talent who slid due to signability, and he will head to Georgia rather than sign here. He's still worth writing about as a guy who could be an immediate contributor in the Bulldog rotation as a 6'5" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a good changeup, all of which he can command. He had been kicking it into another gear as the draft approached and could be a first round pick in 2021.
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