First 5 rounds: Seth Beer (1-28), Jayson Schroeder (2-66), Jeremy Pena (3-102), Alex McKenna (4-132), Cody Deason (5-162)
Also notable: Cesar Salazar (7-222), Austin Hansen (8-252), Scott Schreiber (9-282)
The Astros leaned heavily on college players this year, as after selecting high schooler Jayson Schroeder in the second round, they took players from four year colleges with 24 straight picks until selecting JuCo catcher Juan Paulino in the 27th round, and still didn't select another high schooler until taking Alex Bregman's younger brother A.J. as a goodwill move in the 35th round. It's an interesting strategy considering their success with high schoolers like Carlos Correa, Lance McCuller's Jr., and Forrest Whitely, but they are contending now so it would be nice to get reinforcements sooner rather than later. Though they stuck to college players, they did mix up their talent well, grabbing power, defense, safe starters, and high upside arms all with early picks.
1-28: 1B Seth Beer (my rank: 42)
We knew before the draft started that Beer was going to be a polarizing pick, and here we are. If you pay any level of real attention to the draft or college baseball, you know who he is. The Clemson slugger broke out with a sensational freshman season in 2016 when he slashed .369/.535/.700 with 18 home runs and a ridiculous 27/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. Through his performance, he earned the Dick Howser trophy as a 19 year old and was put on the short list of candidates to go first overall in the 2018 draft. Obviously, that didn't happen, as he has regressed to just "excellent" rather than "sensational" at the plate. As a sophomore in 2017, he slashed .298/.478/.606 with 16 home runs and a 35/64 strikeout to walk ratio, then as a junior this year, he slashed .301/.456/.642 with 22 home runs and a 36/54 strikeout to walk ratio. The bat is clearly elite and ACC pitching does not know how to handle him, as is evidenced by his 56 home runs, 20.5% walk rate, and 11.2% strikeout rate in 188 games. However, he was not good with the Collegiate Team USA in two summers (.208/.344/.287) in his only pre-draft public exposure to wood bats, and his swing is choppier than many would hope, leading to questions about his projectability. He provides no value on defense as he is a liability in the outfield due to his bottom of the scale speed, and he's not much better at first base. That means his entire value is tied to his bat, and if his incredible ACC performance can't translate to pro ball due to his choppy swing and possible holes in his plate coverage, he's in trouble. That said, the Astros have great player development, and he is slashing .293/.431/.659 with four home runs and a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio in eleven games so far for the Astros' New York-Penn League affiliate. That's a small sample but it's a very good sign for him going forward, perhaps more so than for other prospects who got off to hot starts in the minors. If Beer reaches his ceiling, he's a middle of the order bat who could hit 30 home runs and consistently get on base at a .400 clip, a.k.a. Freddie Freeman with a bit more power. His $2.25 million signing bonus was just about $150,000 below slot.
2-66: RHP Jayson Schroeder (my rank: 74)
I like this pick for the Astros. The lone high schooler picked in the first 34 rounds for Houston, Schroeder was a late riser for the draft coming out of Kirkland, Washington, near Seattle. The 6'2" righty has a very good combination of floor and ceiling for a high schooler, especially one that was never considered a candidate for the first round. He throws his fastball in the low 90's with a very good curveball, and he also already has a slider and changeup to go along with them. He commands it all pretty well, and with pro coaching, he should be able to clean up his awkward arm action, especially considering his athleticism. He was rumored to be a tough sign with a strong University of Washington commitment and that has proven to be true, though Houston remains hopeful they can sign him by going over their $965,300 slot value. They currently are a total of $301,900 below slot with all of their picks, and so assuming unsigned fourth rounder Alex McKenna signs at slot, they could presumably offer Schroeder nearly $1.3 million.
3-102: SS Jeremy Pena (unranked)
It's not often that scouts find themselves in Maine looking at early round candidates, but University of Maine shortstop Jeremy Pena drew them there for just that. The Rhode Island native is a relatively light hitting, slick fielding infielder who will be able to stay at shortstop and if he can hit just enough, he'll get to them majors. His .308/.393/.469 slash line this year in a weak America East Conference, combined with five home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 42/27 strikeout to walk ratio, makes him sound like a contact hitter, but his swing has some loft and it is easy to see him hitting for some moderate power if he can catch up to pro pitching. Personally, I see this as a reach, as I think it's unlikely he becomes much more than a utility infielder. Fortunately, he's young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September. He signed for $535,000, which is $14,700 below slot. It's only eleven games, but so far in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .214/.353/.238 without a home run and with a 10/8 strikeout to walk ratio.
4-132: OF Alex McKenna (my rank: 96)
McKenna has been a consistent performer at Cal Poly, capping it off with a solid junior year where he slashed .339/.424/.506 with five home runs, six stolen bases, and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio. Like Pena, he also doesn't turn 21 until September, and while he's not quite as valuable on defense, his bat has a better chance at playing up. He's currently more of a line drive hitter, but he could manage some power if he adds loft to his swing. The 14.1% strikeout rate is pretty decent and could help him with that transition, though he doesn't walk all that much (9.8%) and will need some things to break right for that to happen. Personally, I get a little bit worried he'll end up a tweener with not quite enough power or quite enough on-base ability, though it is the fourth round and his solid chance of turning into a good outfielder makes him worth the fourth round pick. He hasn't signed yet, but that is almost certainly due to Jayson Schroeder's bonus situation, so expect him to sign around the same time the Astros make a decision on Schroeder.
Others: 5th rounder Cody Deason served as the University of Arizona's ace this year, going 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 84/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. He's a 6'3" right hander with a low 90's fastball, a very good curveball, and a decent changeup, all of which he can command fairly well. He'll need to either add movement to his fastball or improve his command if he wants to make it as a major league starter, but those aren't insurmountable tasks and he's good value in the fifth round. 7th rounder Cesar Salazar, besides having a cool name, was Deason's catcher for three years at Arizona, capping his career with a .339/.432/.471 slash line, four home runs, and a 26/21 strikeout to walk ratio. He's just 5'9", but he kept a very low strikeout rate throughout his time in Tucson (including 11.2% this year), gets on base, and plays good defense. He's your typical backup catching prospect. 8th rounder Austin Hansen, unrelated to fellow former Oklahoma standout and current top White Sox prospect Alec Hansen, has been a very good reliever for the Sooners. He put up a 3.29 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 52/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 38 innings, showing a mid 90's fastball, a good changeup, and a developing breaking ball. He's a high ceiling, low floor relief prospect. 9th rounder Scott Schreiber has been a four year producer at Nebraska, driving the Cornhusker offense out in Lincoln. He had his best year this year, slashing .369/.446/.692 with 18 home runs and a 48/28 strikeout to walk ratio. It remains to be seen whether that performance can translate to pro ball, as his walk rate was only moderate even as he was one of the most feared hitters in the Big 10 (11.2%), and his 33/2 strikeout to walk ratio on the Cape was ugly even if he hit .255 with three home runs. His best years were probably in college, but getting a guy with a .474 wOBA in a Power 5 conference in the ninth round is something regardless.
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