First 5 rounds: Grayson Rodriguez (1-11), Cadyn Grenier (CBA-37), Blaine Knight (3-87), Drew Rom (4-115), Robert Neustrom (5-145)
Also notable: Cody Roberts (11-325), Trevor Putzig (17-505), Conor Grammes (35-1045), Slade Cecconi (38-1135)
The Orioles mixed up their class well, going high school upside pitcher, college infielder, college pitcher, high school pitcher, college hitter in the first five rounds. The balance continued throughout the draft, as Baltimore restocked a fairly barren system that is really lacking in every department. past They haven't been great at developing talent lately, so they'll hope to get a few Ryan Mountcastle's instead of a Cody Sedlock.
1-11: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (my rank: 27)
I ranked Rodriguez down at 27 due to his risk, but his upside could justify this pick. The 6'5" righty out of Nacogdoches, Texas came into the spring in much better shape than he had been in over the summer and the results showed, with his exceptional arm strength leading the way. He can get his fastball up to 98 and sits in the mid 90's, with its heavy life generating plenty of ground balls and making it a plus pitch. His hard-biting slider is his best secondary, and he also throws a curve and a changeup, giving him a full arsenal to go with that top notch arm strength. That's what pushed him up to pick eleven, but there are some negatives to his profile that make me think he shouldn't have gone so early. The biggest thing is that he has a very arm-heavy delivery, one that puts a lot of stress on that right arm and could make him more of an injury risk. Through that delivery, he also holds the ball down behind him for a long enough time that pro hitters could get a good luck at the pitch and take advantage. That will need to change. He has a high ceiling as well as a high floor. The pick value here is $4.4 million and he has already expressed interest in signing, and it's not out of the question that he could sign under-slot.
CBA-37: SS Cadyn Grenier (my rank: 82)
Grenier is universally regarded as one of the best, if not the best, defensive shortstops in college baseball, manning the position for the powerhouse Oregon State club that also includes first round picks Nick Madrigal (White Sox) and Trevor Larnach (Twins). While there is no question that Grenier can stay at shortstop and thrive there, whether he hits enough is a question. In 58 games for the Beavers heading into the draft, Grenier had slashed a respectable .328/.415/.478 with five home runs and a 49/29 strikeout to walk ratio. Those are good college numbers, but I'm not quite sure it's enough to justify a pick that high unless he signs under-slot. He doesn't have much projection as a hitter, so he'll have to continue hitting for contact and drawing walks to provide value with the bat. His strikeout and walk rates were 17.1% and 10.1% prior to the draft, respectively, which isn't ideal for the kind of player he is. Superb glove, but it won't matter if he can't hit his way through the minors. Slot value is $1.9 million, though I expect him to sign for less than that.
3-87: RHP Blaine Knight (my rank: 50)
Knight is a very good pitcher to grab in the third round, but they'll likely have to take whatever money they save on Grenier and put it towards him because I see him wanting more than the slot value of $663,200. Knight, like Grenier, comes from a powerhouse baseball program, acting as the ace of the Arkansas rotation the past two seasons. This year, heading into super-regionals, he is 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, racking up an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 95 innings. That gives him a three year track record of success in the SEC, and he has good command of a four pitch arsenal. It's headlined by a low to mid 90's fastball, but also includes a good slider and a workable curveball and changeup. That's a starter's profile, but he does have a few negatives on his resume. He's 6'3" but is listed at just 165 pounds, and while for most pitchers that would scream projectability and the promise of more velocity, he has such a skinny build that it could lead to durability issues, which would push him to the bullpen. He was eligible last season as an older sophomore and could have been a second round pick, but high bonus demands pushed him down to the 29th round and he returned to school. That means he'll turn 22 in a couple of weeks and is older than most college juniors. For the third round, the combination of present stuff and ceiling is a good value, so long as they can sign him away from his senior year in Fayetteville.
5-145: RF Robert Neustrom (unranked)
Neustrom just finished his junior year at the University of Iowa and has been a very productive player there, slashing .310/.376/.484 over three seasons, coming in at a career best .311/.386/.538 this year with eleven home runs and a 34/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Impressively, he played very well in the Cape Cod League last summer, slashing .302/.346/.479 with four home runs and a 22/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games. The K/BB wasn't all that pretty, but those are very good numbers for how tough of a league the Cape is. The bat will have to play, because his defense is just adequate and he might be forced to move to left field. I have confidence that it could, as he does a lot of things well at the plate, from his above average power and plate discipline to his well-regarded work ethic and success on the Cape. The slot value is $361,000, and I like this pick.
Others: Fourth rounder Drew Rom is a 6'2" left handed pitcher out of a Kentucky high school near Cincinnati. He throws his fastball right around 90 right now, but his slider is his best pitch with hard bite in on right handed hitters. He's more upside than floor, but he does have the tools to work with. Pick value is $483,300 and he's committed to Michigan, but my guess is that he probably signs. 11th rounder Cody Roberts has been UNC's catcher for three years, and while he hasn't hit all that much (.266/.357/.358 career), his glove is very good and he walks enough to put some value in the bat as well. He could work his way into a backup catcher's role in Baltimore. 17th rounder Trevor Putzig has been one of the best bats on the unstoppable Tennessee Tech offense this year, slashing .313/.423/.615 with 16 home runs and a 38/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 50 games. He was drafted as a third baseman and will get the chance to try to stay there, though he may have to move to the outfield eventually. One negative is his age, as he turns 23 in August and was the oldest of the Orioles' 40 draft picks. 35th rounder Conor Grammes is a local Northern Virginia kid, one who I played against in high school when I was at James Madison in Vienna and he was at McLean. He has hit and hit and hit since getting to Xavier, slashing .336/.378/.508 with a 17 home runs and an 87/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games in his two years in Cincinnati. Interestingly though, he was drafted as a pitcher despite finishing this season 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA, a 1.79 WHIP, and a 45/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings. His strikeout rate is great, but he'll need to improve his command dramatically if he wants to push his way up as a reliever. He's a draft-eligible sophomore, so I'm not sure he signs here. Lastly, 38th rounder Slade Cecconi could have been drafted in the second or third round, but signing bonus demands pushed him down to the 38th and he almost definitely goes to the University of Miami instead of the Orioles' minor league system. The 6''4" high school righty ranked 80th on my list, showing a lot of inconsistency but a lot of upside as well. Over the summer last year, he was up to 97 with his fastball and showed projectable offspeed pitches, but he lost a few miles per hour off his fastball in the spring and never really established his slider or his curveball as a dominant pitch. As I said, he likely heads to The U, but he could emerge after two years (he'll be a draft eligible sophomore in 2020) as a first round pick.
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