Hall of Fame 2018: My Take

The BBWAA just released its Hall of Fame ballot for 2018. I'll list out my hypothetical ballot with my reasoning behind selecting each player, then I'll talk about notable exclusions and why I would not vote for them.

A quick(ish) primer on my views on steroids:

There are three ways to look at steroid users: let them all in (if they have worthy statistics), let in only those who would have made the Hall of Fame without steroids (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens), or don't let in any. I strongly favor giving those who may or may not have taken steroids the benefit of the doubt, but for those where we know, I fall into the third category. The Hall of Fame honors baseball's greatest players, and while Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would certainly fit that label even if they stayed clean, the fact is that they knowingly broke the rules to gain an advantage. In 1991, Major League Baseball officially banned steroids, but a group of players, even if it was a large group of players, decided that the rules did not apply to them and that they could use steroids. They therefore were not only spitting on the game, but by playing by a different set of rules, were playing a different variation of the sport than the clean players and should not be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. The argument can be made that baseball was dying after the 1994 strike and that viewership was down, and that ownership pressured stars to use steroids to hit more home runs and save the sport, but I see those players more as martyrs than as victims; they still chose to cheat and corrupt the game. They played by a different set of rules and do not belong in the Hall of Fame.

My Ballot

1. Chipper Jones (468 HR, .303/.401/.529 slash, 150 SB, 141 wRC+, 84.6 fWAR)

This will be one of the two players we can all agree on. Chipper Jones played 20 years for the Atlanta Braves, crushing 468 home runs with an on-base percentage over .400 and good-enough defense at the hot corner. He was the NL MVP in 1999 when he slashed .319/.441/.633 with 45 home runs, good for a 165 wRC+ and 7.3 fWAR, and that year was far from an anomaly. I don't think anybody disagrees, so I'll use my words on the more controversial/borderline players.

2. Jim Thome (612 HR, .276/.402/.554 slash, 19 SB, 145 wRC+, 69.0 fWAR)

Jim Thome is the other uncontroversial player. He blasted 612 home runs over a 22 year career, and if that isn't enough to convince you on his own, he maintained a .402 career on-base percentage to make himself a true all-around threat at the plate. In 2002, he won the Roberto Clemente Award, and he was one of the few power hitters of the era to never be tied to steroids. Great guy, great hitter, Hall of Famer. Easy.

3. Edgar Martinez (309 HR, .312/.418/.515 slash, 49 SB, 147 wRC+, 65.5 fWAR)

If you don't think Edgar Martinez belongs in the Hall of Fame, you are wrong. It's true that he was a DH for most of his career and was a butcher in the field when he was out there, but how many times have you stopped and thought about Babe Ruth's defense? Or Ted Williams? Or Willie Stargell? They were all terrible, and if you're reaction is "well at least they played defense," I'm not exactly sure why going out into the field and hurting their team with their gloves is any better than DH'ing, and I'm sure they would have spent much of their careers at DH had the position been available. Now for Edgar's offense: his 147 career wRC+ places him 33rd all time, ahead of Mike Schmidt (147), Willie McCovey (145), Willie Stargell (145), Harmon Killebrew (142), Chipper Jones (141), Alex Rodriguez (141), Mike Piazza (140), and...you get it. Martinez didn't hit for as much power as some of the other guys, having only hit more than 30 home runs in a season once, but he was an on-base machine. His .418 on-base percentage ranks 21st all time, sandwiched between #20 Frank Thomas and #22 Stan Musial. Combine that with power, and he absolutely deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame.

4. Vladimir Guerrero (449 HR, .318/.379/.553 slash, 181 SB, 136 wRC+, 54.3 fWAR)

Vlad may have only played sixteen seasons, but he was a one-man wrecking crew at the plate nearly the entire time he was in the majors. For eleven years from 1998-2008, when offense in baseball was at its highest, Guerrero never posted a wRC+ below 129, meaning he was at worst 29% better at the plate than league average in any given year. He won the 2004 AL MVP by slashing .337/.391/.598 with 39 home runs, and that was only his fourth best season by fWAR (5.9) and his third best by wRC+ (154). Guerrero comes with significant faults away from his hitting, including his mediocre defense and his relative lack of longevity, but his prime, both in peak and length, matches up with almost any non-legendary hitter in the Hall. The only point of contention I have with his offense is his low walk rate (8.1% career) but his high batting average (.318) ensured that his on-base percentage would still be high enough (.379) and he hit for so much power that overall, I am not worried about the low walk rate. If anything, his tendency to swing at (and hit) everything got into pitchers heads enough that it could be seen as a bonus.

5. Andruw Jones (434 HR, .254/.337/.486 slash, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.1 fWAR)

Starting with Andruw Jones, I am less adamant about these next players, but I still believe they are Hall of Famers and would be included on my ballot accordingly. Jones wasn't a legendary hitter, slashing "just" .254/.337/.486 for his career and finishing with a 111 wRC+, just 11% above league average. He was average when it came to getting on base, had a good amount of pop (he did hit 51 home runs in 2005), and could steal a few bases. Offensively, that's an All Star package, but not a Hall of Fame one. Where Jones stood out was in center field, where he won ten straight Gold Gloves and was regarded as potentially the best ever. It's hard to quantify defense and even harder to compare quantified values with players from other eras, but in a time when hitters were blasting baseballs deep into the outfield, nothing fell around Jones in center field. Combine that with 434 home runs over 17 years, and Jones is a Hall of Famer.

6. Mike Mussina (270-153, 3.68 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2813/785 K/BB, 3562.2 IP)

A 3.68 career ERA doesn't necessarily scream "Hall of Famer," but Mike Mussina deserves the call. For eighteen years, he pitched in hitters' parks (first in Baltimore then in New York) in a hitters' era in a strong division. When you look away from the raw 3.68 ERA, his 82 career ERA- (adjusted to league average, park-adjusted, lower is better) is comparable to that of John Smoltz (81), Juan Marichal (81), Bob Feller (82), and Ron Guidry (83). I am not as confident in pitching WAR as I am in hitting WAR, but Mussina's 82.2 fWAR ranks him 17th all time among pitchers, behind #16 Bob Gibson and ahead of #18 Fergie Jenkins. He topped 150 innings for seventeen straight seasons from 1992-2008, making his starts every fifth day as dependably as anyone. Had he pitched his career in another era and another ballpark, his ERA could be half a run lower and he'd be a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame. Combine his longevity with his performance, and Mike Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame.

7. Curt Schilling (216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB, 3261 IP)

Schilling may not have been as consistent as Mussina, but he had higher peaks and overall, his numbers are about equal. His 79.8 fWAR is just behind Mussina's 82.2, ranking him 20th all time. His 80 ERA- is also just ahead of Mussina over slightly fewer innings. His peaks were incredible, as he put up four seasons of at least 7.2 fWAR, and in 2002, he racked up 9.3 by going 23-7 with a 3.23 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 316/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games (35 starts) in an extremely hitter-friendly Arizona ballpark in the middle of the Steroid Era. He also reached 300 strikeouts in 1997 and 1998. He had a bitter relationship with the media throughout his career, which has likely suppressed his votes, but I believe he has done enough to warrant a call to the Hall of Fame.

8. Billy Wagner (47-40, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB, 903 IP)

No, the best reliever on the ballot is not Trevor Hoffman, but Billy Wagner; I don't care how many saves Hoffman had. Though Wagner missed portions of some seasons to injury, he finished his career with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, striking out batters at ridiculous rates while keeping runners off the bases and establishing himself as the greatest closer of all time not named Mariano Rivera. His 24.1 career fWAR is the sixth highest ever for a reliever, and the five above him all threw significantly more innings. RE24 accumulates the change in run expectancy between each event (strikeout, hit, etc.), and it's very useful in measuring the situation to situation effectiveness of a reliever; Wagner's 198.17 is the second most of all time among relievers, behind only Rivera. In win-probability added, which is a pretty decent metric for measuring "clutchness," Wagner is fifth at 28.40, with three of the four ahead of him having thrown significantly more innings again (though Joe Nathan has thrown many fewer, surprisingly). On an out-for-out basis, Wagner is the best closer ever after Rivera.

9. Trevor Hoffman (61-75, 2.87 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1133/307 K/BB, 1089.1 IP)

Wagner may be better, but Hoffman is still one of the greatest relievers ever. He made over one thousand appearances over eighteen seasons, making at least 47 appearances in each of those seasons except 2003. His 26.1 fWAR is the third most ever for a reliever, behind only Mariano Rivera (39.2) and Goose Gossage (28.9). He is one of ten relievers to ever pitch over one thousand games, and of those, only Mariano Rivera (2.06) and Kent Tekulve (2.85) have a lower ERA than his 2.87. Wagner was clearly the better pitcher on and inning for inning basis, but Hoffman's longevity and consistency is what makes him one of the greatest of all time.

10. Larry Walker (383 HR, .313/.400/.565 slash, 230 SB, 140 wRC+, 68.7 fWAR)

Larry Walker is a tough call because he spent nine and a half seasons in Colorado, including his prime, in the days before the humidor. However, his numbers were so outrageous during that prime, especially from 1997-2002, that even the humidor-less Coors Field can't explain away those numbers. In 1997, his best season, he cracked 49 home runs and slashed .366/.452/.720 while stealing 33 bases, good for a 177 wRC+ and 9.1 fWAR. Using wRC+, which adjusts for ballpark and league production, we can find a recent similar season with a more neutral context: this past season, Aaron Judge put up a 173 wRC+ by slashing .284/.422/.627 with 52 home runs. His career 140 wRC+ ranks 68th all time and puts him on the same level as David Ortiz and Frank Howard. At the same time, he just breaks even in defensive value, making him one of just 20 players with positive defensive value and a 140 wRC+. Throw in his 230 stolen bases, and that list of twenty drops to eleven for players with at least 200 stolen bases. Context be damned, Walker had a fantastic career.

Steroid Users Left Off (see steroid primer)

Barry Bonds (762 HR, .298/.444/.607 slash, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR)

Roger Clemens (354-184, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB, 4916.2 IP)

Manny Ramirez (555 HR, .312/.411/.585 slash, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR)

Gary Sheffield (509 HR, .292/.393/.514 slash, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR)*

Sammy Sosa (609 HR, .273/.344/.534 slash, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR)

*Sheffield was named in the Mitchell Report but has significantly less evidence against him as the other names. However, he's a borderline candidate as it is, and the doubt from the steroid allegations is enough to push more deserving players in.

Left Off

Scott Rolen (316 HR, .281/.364/.490 slash, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 70.1 fWAR)

Rolen is very close to being a Hall of Famer, and if the ballot wasn't limited to ten names, I might add him on. For now, though, Rolen will be left off due to other players being more deserving. Rolen was a very good hitter over his career, slashing .281/.364/.490 over a seventeen year career, but where he really shined was on defense. He picked up eight Gold Gloves between 1998 and 2010, and Fangraphs backs up his defensive prowess through their metrics. The high defensive value combined with his solid offense (a career 122 wRC+ is not too shabby) gives him 70.1 fWAR, more than any other non-steroid using hitter on the ballot aside from Chipper Jones, but I'm not as confident in Fangraphs' defensive metrics and will leave him off, at least for this year, due to uncertainty.

Fred McGriff (493 HR, .284/.377/.509 slash, 72 SB, 134 wRC+, 56.9 fWAR)

McGriff was a great hitter, hitting nearly 500 home runs and going sixteen seasons from 1987-2002 without posting an on-base percentage below .350. However, he provided no value on defense, which we saw with Jim Thome and Edgar Martinez wasn't enough to outright disqualify someone, but the offense just wasn't there for the era to alleviate it. His 134 wRC+ is pretty good, but if someone is going to get into the Hall of Fame, I'd like to see a little bit better if there is no defensive value being added. There were so many great power hitters in the era, even ones that weren't linked to steroids, that not everybody can get in.

Omar Vizquel (80 HR, .272/.336/.352 slash, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.6 fWAR)

Omar Vizquel was a legendary shortstop defensively, and with a career that spanned 24 seasons from 1989-2012, Vizquel has to at least be considered for the Hall of Fame. However, I can't "vote" for him because he was utterly useless on offense. It may seem hypocritical because I included "useless" defenders Jim Thome and Edgar Martinez, but I do value offense more than defense and a career .688 OPS (and .310 wOBA) is an outright liability in a lineup where offense is at an all time high. Only twice, in 1999 and 2002, did Vizquel produce more offense than the average hitter by wRC+, and he finished at 83 for his career. For context, some recent players with similar levels of offense include Mark Kotsay (84), Ben Revere (82), Craig Counsell (82), Gordon Beckham (81), and Jose Iglesias (81). This doesn't take away from the fact that Vizquel was an amazing player, as his defense was truly remarkable, but his ineptitude at the plate is enough to keep him out of the Hall for me.

Johan Santana (139-78, 3.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 1988/567 K/BB, 2025.2 IP)

Johan Santana was great, and at his prime from 2002-2010, he was a Hall of Famer. However, shoulder problems forced him to retire after just twelve seasons, and it's tough to convince a voter that 2025.2 innings is enough to get into the Hall of Fame. In fact, only one starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame threw fewer innings than Santana: Dizzy Dean, who went 150-83 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 1967.1 innings over twelve seasons. Santana does best Dean in both fWAR (45.3 to 40.9) and ERA- (74 to 77), but at this point, there are more deserving players on the ballot and Santana will have to wait. We can look back on his prime and see that from 2002-2010, only Roy Halladay (50.4) and Roy Oswalt (44) accumulated more fWAR than Santana (43.7), while his 2.90 ERA was tops among starting pitchers. Maybe in a few years.

Jeff Kent (377 HR, .290/.356/.500 slash, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.1 fWAR)

Jeff Kent had a long career with respectable consistency, posting at least a 98 wRC+ in each of his seventeen seasons and reaching at least 120 in ten straight seasons from 1998-2007. He also played second base, occupying a key position and providing adequate defense there. He was also (a bit surprisingly) the 2000 NL MVP, slashing .334/.424/.596 with 33 home runs, good for a 159 wRC+ and 7.4 fWAR. It all adds up to a very good package, but unfortunately, I don't see it as quite enough to warrant a trip to the Hall of Fame in an era where so many players put up comparable numbers.

Others of note: Jamie Moyer (48.2 fWAR), Johnny Damon (44.5), Chris Carpenter (39.1), Carlos Zambrano (30.6), Carlos Lee (27.5)

Mariners Acquire Ryon Healy for Emilio Pagan, Prospect

Mariners Get: Ryon Healy (25 HR, .271/.302/.451, 100 wRC+, 0 SB, 2018 Age: 26)

A's Get: Emilio Pagan (2-3, 3.22 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 56/8 K/BB, 2018 Age: 27)

Alexander Campos (2 HR, .290/.413/.367, 136 wRC+, 7 SB at DSL, 2018 Age: 18)

The first notable move of the offseason comes as the A's move slugging corner infielder Ryon Healy up the coast to Seattle for an MLB arm and a minor league bat. Kyle Seager already has third base locked up in Seattle, but Healy looks to be the first baseman going forward with the only competition being Dan Vogelbach and the newly claimed Andrew Romine. Healy made a lot of noise as a rookie in 2016, slashing .305/.337/.524 with 13 home runs in 72 games, good for a 132 wRC+, but he (understandably) took a minor step back in 2017 by slashing .271/.302/.451 with 25 home runs in 149 games. Those are still good numbers and Healy turns just 26 in January, but the 142/23 strikeout to walk ratio was ugly and he'll have to rely on the power for most of his value. For his career, the former Oregon Duck has 38 home runs, a .282/.313/.475 slash line, and 1.3 fWAR over 221 games.

Going back to Oakland are two very interesting players that A's fans have to be happy about. Emilio Pagan was a 26 year old rookie this year, a bit on the older side, but he couldn't have looked any better in his stint. Over 34 appearances, many of which were longer than one inning, he posted a 3.22 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 56/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 50.1 innings. He'll have to be careful because he is an extreme fly ball pitcher, but the Coliseum keeps a lot of fly balls in the park, so Pagan should be happy about this deal. 

Also going over is an intriguing 17 year old shortstop named Alexander Campos who tore up the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut this year. The Venezuelan slashed .291/.413/.367 in 59 games and walked more (41) than he struck out (39).  At this point, he doesn't have much power and may not ever develop much, but he is a solid defender with an advanced approach at the plate who has less of a chance to bust than most 17 year old prospects.

Hot Stove Preview: Pitchers

Starting Pitchers

Aside from possibly Shohei Ohtani, there are no true aces available on the market. That said, Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and even Alex Cobb profile well in the top half of any rotation. Interestingly, it's a class full of risk, with Lynn, Cobb, Chris Tillman, Michael Pineda, Tyson Ross, and Wily Peralta all recently missing significant time to injury or simply underperforming, plus Jason Vargas, C.C. Sabathia, John Lackey, R.A. Dickey, Ricky Nolasco, and Bartolo Colon will all be 35 or older during the 2018 season.

Bonus: Shohei Ohtani (Previous Team: Nippon-Ham Fighters. 2018 Age: 23-24)

2017 Japan Stats: 3-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 25.2 IP

Like with the outfielders, I am not going to rank Shohei Ohtani among the pitchers, but he very well may be the best starter on the market at just 23 years old. He'll certainly be the cheapest, costing his team around $25 million versus the nine figures some of the other guys may draw. Ohtani can hit 100 MPH with his fastball and has a full arsenal including a forkball, a curveball, and a slider. An ankle injury limited him to just five starts in 2017 (3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB), but his 2016 shows just how good he is: 10-4, 1.86 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 174/45 K/BB in 140 innings. That's 31.8% of his opponents going down on strikes in his age 21-22 season. His control could use some work (8.2% walk rate in 2016, 18.1% in 2017 as he worked through injury), but he has ace potential. As stated in the outfielders section, he is also a very good hitter, and he could be a two-way player in the majors. For his career, the righty out of the semi-small town (by Japanese standards) of Hanamaki is 42-15 with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 85 games, striking out 624 and walking 200 in 543 innings.

1. Yu Darvish (Previous Team: Dodgers. 2018 Age: 31-32)

2017 Stats: 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 209/58 K/BB, 186.2 IP

Because there are no true, proven aces available, Yu Darvish sits at the front of the regular free agent pack as a solid #2 starter. He may have had his worst year to date in 2017 (3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), but those aren't bad numbers by any means and any team should be happy to have him in their rotation. That said, he has broken 200 innings just once in his six years in the MLB, including missing all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery. A team signing Darvish should expect something along the lines of his 2016 season, where he put up a 3.41 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP for the Rangers, which is mid-to-upper rotation stuff. He'll be expensive, but good starting pitching is hard to find nowadays. For his career, the 31 year old Japanese hurler is 56-42 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 131 starts, striking out 1021 and walking 307 in 832.1 innings and racking up 19.0 fWAR.

2. Jake Arrieta (Previous Team: Cubs. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 14-10, 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 163/55 K/BB, 168.1 IP

Jake Arrieta isn't what he was in 2015, when he went 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP to win the NL Cy Young Award. However, he's still a #2 or #3 starter, coming off a season with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 30 starts. He also got better as the season moved along, beginning 7-6 with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over the first three months of the season but finishing 7-4 with a 2.26 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over the final three months. He'll look to continue that success in 2018 and draw out his prime for another few years, making him a high dollar but high reward signing. For his career, the 31 year old former TCU Horned Frog is 88-56 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 197 games (191 starts), striking out 1070 and walking 403 in 1161 innings and totaling 21.2 fWAR.

3. Lance Lynn (Previous Team: Cardinals. 2018 Age: 30-31)

2017 Stats: 11-8, 3.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 153/78 K/BB, 186.1 IP

Lance Lynn may have missed all of 2016 with Tommy John surgery, but be bounced back at full strength for most of 2017 before fading in September, likely stemming from the year off. In his first 29 starts through September 7th, Lynn went 10-7 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, on pace for arguably the best year of his career. However, in his final four starts, he was 1-1 with a 9.20 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP, inflating his final ERA and WHIP to 3.43 and 1.23, respectively. I believe the numbers from the first starts over the final starts, as he was up over 150 innings after not pitching at all last season. Quietly, he has been one of the better pitchers in baseball over the past half decade, and he doesn't turn 31 until May. For his career, the former Ole Miss Rebel is 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 183 games (161 starts), striking out 919 and walking 369 over 977.2 innings, compiling 14.9 fWAR.

4. Alex Cobb (Previous Team: Rays. 2018 Age: 30)

2017 Stats: 12-10, 3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 128/44 K/BB, 179.1 IP

Alex Cobb pitches for a small market team and made just five starts from 2015-2016, so you may not know that he's actually pretty good. In 29 starts this year, he put up a 3.66 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP for the Rays, proving he is recovered from Tommy John surgery and ready for a long term deal. Before the injury, he was quietly excellent from 2013-2014, going 21-12 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 49 starts, and at his best he may be able to provide that to a signing team. Do beware, though, that Cobb's 179.1 innings this season was his career high, and he has never been around for 30 starts in a season. For his career, the Vero Beach, Florida native is 48-35 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 115 starts, striking out 570 and walking 204 in 700 innings, enough for 10.5 fWAR.

5. Tyler Chatwood (Previous Team: Rockies. 2018 Age: 28)

2017 Stats: 8-15, 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 120/77 K/BB, 147.2 IP

Don't underestimate Tyler Chatwood. On the surface, his 4.69 ERA and 1.44 WHIP may not look good, but he pitched for the Rockies this year and struggled mightily at home, where he was 3-8 with a 6.01 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP over 17 games (12 starts). Meanwhile, in 16 games (13 starts) on the road, he was 5-7 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. This split was even starker in 2016 (4-8, 6.12 ERA, 1.64 WHIP at home vs 8-1, 1.69 ERA, 1.11 WHIP on the road), and once he escapes Coors Field full time, he could easily be a mid-rotation starter with the numbers to back it up. He's a sinkerballer, so he generates a lot of ground balls, but he does well on the road due partly to the increased ability to spin his curveball in the lower altitudes, which will be big with his new team. As a bonus, he will be 28 for all of 2018, making him one of the youngest starters available. For his career, the SoCal native is 40-46 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in 130 games (113 starts), striking out 438 and walking 300 in 647.2 innings, good for 5.1 fWAR.

6. Jaime Garcia (Previous Team: Yankees. 2018 Age: 31-32)

2017 Stats: 5-10, 4.41 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 129/64 K/BB, 157 IP

For the first time since 2010-2011, Jaime Garcia has put up back to back healthy seasons, though he has been largely average on the mound. This past season, split between the Braves, Twins, and Yankees, he put up a 4.41 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 27 starts, well above his career averages, but at least he was healthy. He profiles as a #3 or a #4 starter, but has shown flashes of better (2.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP in 20 starts in 2015). He'll turn 32 in July, so he's not the oldest arm available, and he's been pretty consistent as long as he has been on the mound. For his career, the South Texas native is 67-55 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 185 games (174 starts), striking out 852 and walking 325 over 1053 innings, totaling 15.6 fWAR.

7. Jhoulys Chacin (Previous Team: Padres. 2018 Age: 30)

2017 Stats: 13-10, 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 153/72 K/BB, 180.1 IP

The full season numbers don't tell the story for Jhoulys Chacin. First off, he was much better over the last four months (21 starts, 9-6, 2.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) than he was over the first two months (11 starts, 4-4, 5.77 ERA, 1.46 WHIP). However, the more intriguing split for Chacin is home/road. In 16 starts at PETCO Park, he looked like an ace: 9-3, 1.79 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 83/37 K/BB. However, in 16 starts away from home, he was just plain awful: 4-7, 6.53 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 70/35 K/BB. These splits aren't new to Chacin, as he was better at home in 2016 as well (3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP at home vs 5.85 ERA, 1.66 WHIP on road). A team signing Chacin needs to know that they may be getting two different pitchers, and they may want to maximize his starts at home. For his career, the 29 year old Venezuelan is 59-67 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 195 games (167 starts), striking out 807 and walking 417 in 1023 innings, worth 13.2 fWAR.

8. Andrew Cashner (Previous Team: Rangers. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 11-11, 3.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 86/64 K/BB, 166.2 IP

The good news is that Andrew Cashner's numbers look great on the surface. The bad news is that they aren't as great as they seem. That 3.40 ERA in a hitters' park over 28 starts is shiny, but his 86/64 strikeout to walk ratio is a big red flag. In fact, it produces a 4.61 FIP (fielding independent pitching, set to ERA scale), as his .267 BABIP was much lower than his career .294. Much of that can be attributed to a career high 18.5% soft contact rate and a lower hard hit rate (28.5%). It's hard to tell exactly what we'll get out of Cashner in 2018, but it most likely won't look like his 2017 season, making him a likely #4 starter. For his career, the former TCU Horned Frog (where he was a teammate of fellow free agent starter Jake Arrieta) is 42-64 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 230 games (137 starts), striking out 694 and walking 319 over 893 innings, accumulating 9.2 fWAR.

9. Jason Vargas (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 35)

2017 Stats: 18-11, 4.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 134/58 K/BB, 179.2 IP

Jason Vargas ranks fairly low due to his age, as he turns 35 in February, but he has been very dependable when on the mound. Despite missing part of 2013 and much of 2015 and 2016 to injuries, he has not posted an ERA above 4.25 in any season since 2009, including a 4.16 mark over 32 starts in 2017. As an aging veteran, his production may begin to slip soon, so he'll likely get a short term deal. For his career, the lefty out of Long Beach State is 85-81 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 248 games (228 starts), striking out 939 and walking 415 over 1401.1 innings, accumulating 13.7 fWAR.

10. Chris Tillman (Previous Team: Orioles. 2018 Age: 30)

2017 Stats: 1-7, 7.84 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 63/51 K/BB, 93 IP

Chris Tillman is a buy-low guy. A shoulder injury delayed the start of Tillman's season until May, but he obviously experienced lingering effects because he was just awful. Over 24 games (19 starts), Tillman went 1-7 with a 7.84 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP, seemingly getting pounded every time he went out to the mound and making just one scoreless start – his first start – before spending some time in the bullpen in August and September. The nightmare season stands in stark contrast to 2016, when he went 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, running up 140 strikeouts to 66 walks in 172 innings. It remains to be seen how his shoulder will hold up, but a healthy Tillman could approach those numbers again in 2018 and at 29 years old, he isn't an aging arm. For his career, the SoCal native is 73-55 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 203 games (198 starts), striking out 834 and walking 419 in 1118.1 innings, compiling 9.4 fWAR.

11. Jeremy Hellickson (Previous Team: Orioles. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 8-11, 5.43 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 96/47 K/BB, 164 IP

Jeremy Hellickson accepted the Phillies' qualifying offer last year, and he likely cost himself a large payday due to an inability to repeat his 2016 numbers. In 32 starts for the Phillies in 2016, he went 12-10 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 154/45 strikeout to walk ratio, but those numbers fell to 8-11, 5.43, 1.26, and 96/47 in 2017. He allowed more fly balls in 2017 and his hard hit rate jumped slightly, but his strikeout rate also plummeted from 20% in 2016 to 13.8% in 2017. Still just 30, he may very well squeeze a few more solid seasons out, but 2016 is looking more and more like an exception rather than a rule, with the other four of his past five seasons producing ERA's of at least 4.52. He is outlook is that of a #5 starter. For his career, the Des Moines native is 69-69 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 204 games (197 starts), striking out 834 and walking 345 in 1139 innings for a total of 9.6 fWAR.

12. Michael Pineda (Previous Team: Yankees. 2018 Age: 29)

2017 Stats: 8-4, 4.39 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 92/21 K/BB, 96.1 IP

Michael Pineda ranks better than many of the players above him on skill, but he went down with Tommy John surgery in July and likely won't be available until after the All Star Break in 2018. That said, he's just 28 and provides mid-rotation skill, so he's a solid piece when healthy. This past season, he put up solid numbers, including a 4.39 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 92/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 starts. If a team can afford to wait until August to use him, he can provide stretch value and then stick around for a full season in 2019. For his career, the 6'7" Dominican is 40-41 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 117 starts, striking out 687 and walking 157 in 680 innings for a total of 13.2 fWAR.

13. C.C. Sabathia (Previous Team: Yankees. 2018 Age: 37-38)

2017 Stats: 14-5, 3.69 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 120/50 K/BB, 148.2 IP

C.C. Sabathia looked like he was down and out after back to back poor seasons in 2014 (5.28 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) and 2015 (4.73 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), but he rebounded nicely in 2016 (3.91 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) and 2017 (3.69 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). He'll turn 38 in July, but it looks like he may have one or two more productive seasons in him, so he could get some decent money. However, with any aging pitcher, there is always the risk of a drop-off, so that is why he ranks this lowly. For his career, the 6'6", 300 pound Oakland-area native is 237-146 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 509 starts, striking out 2846 and walking 1009 in 3317 innings, compiling 65.3 fWAR.

14. John Lackey (Previous Team: Cubs. 2018 Age: 39)

2017 Stats: 12-12, 4.59 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 149/53 K/BB, 170.2 IP

John Lackey is another veteran starter, one who has been very good up until this past season. After back to back seasons with ERA's of 3.35 or below, he finished at 4.59 in 2017, but he still managed a very solid 1.28 WHIP. The 39 year old probably only has one or two productive years left in him, but he could be a good get as a back-end starter who can also provide a veteran presence. For his career, the Abilene, Texas native is 188-147 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 448 games (446 starts), striking out 2294 and walking 815 over 2840.1 innings, totaling 43.4 fWAR.

15. Tyson Ross (Previous Team: Rangers. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 3-3, 7.71 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 36/37 K/BB, 49 IP

Tyson Ross's past two seasons have been nothing short of nightmares, as he has pitched in just 13 games and gone 3-4 with an 8.12 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP. The good news is that when he was healthy back in 2015, he put up a 3.26 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 33 starts, so we know Ross is a good pitcher. If all he needs is more time between himself and the 2016 shoulder surgery (as well as the blisters that plagued him in 2017), then he could provide great return on investment in 2018. If he truly isn't the same pitcher anymore, then Ross's future in baseball looks bleak. Essentially, he is no guarantee to even be adequate, but there is the chance that he rebounds into a mid-rotation starter. For his career, the UC-Berkeley alumnus is 35-56 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, striking out 669 and walking 308 over 719.2 innings, accumulating 10.3 fWAR.

Others: Miguel Gonzalez (8-13, 4.62 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 100/55 K/BB), R.A. Dickey (10-10, 4.26 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 136/67 K/BB), Matt Garza (6-9, 4.94 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 79/45 K/BB), Wily Peralta (5-4, 7.85 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 52/32 K/BB), Ricky Nolasco (6-15, 4.92 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 143/58 K/BB)

Right Handed Relievers

Two big names highlight this class, with Wade Davis and Greg Holland easily coming out on top as the best relievers available. However, Addison Reed, Steve Cishek, and Pat Neshek form a solid second tier, with other guys like Bryan Shaw, Joe Smith, Brandon Kintzler, and Brandon Morrow providing different looks. It's a fairly deep class of right handers, and with relievers becoming more and more important, these guys could make more money than they would have in years past.

*RE24 measures the change in run expectancy from one base/out situation to the next and accumulates them for the year. For example, a leadoff strikeout takes the difference in run expectancy from bases empty/no outs to bases empty/one out. Higher is better, and remember that it is cumulative, not a rate like ERA.

1. Wade Davis (Previous Team: Cubs. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 2.30 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 79/28 K/BB, 58.2 IP, 12.05 RE24

Wade Davis hasn't been able to repeat the level of success he had from 2014-2015 (0.97 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 187/43 K/BB), but he has still been one of the top relievers in baseball over the past few seasons. In 2017, his worst season as a full time reliever, he put up a 2.30 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 59 appearances, striking out 32.6% of the batters he faced while walking 11.6%. He's not an elite closer on the level of Kenley Jansen or Craig Kimbrel, but he's in that second tier and is a reliable weapon for the back ends of games. For his career, the Central Florida native is 59-39 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 393 games (88 starts), striking out 768 and walking 312 in 835.1 innings for 13.1 fWAR.

2. Greg Holland (Previous Team: Rockies. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 3.61 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 70/26 K/BB, 57.1 IP, 9.78 RE24

Though Holland's numbers look more good than great, it's important to note that 2017 was a) his first season back after missing 2016 with Tommy John surgery and b) spent with the Rockies, where he had to make 30 appearances in Coors Field. Somehow, he came out with a better ERA at home (3.34) than on the road (3.90) despite being predominantly a fly ball pitcher. He even had a higher BABIP at home (.284) than on the road (.219), indicating more luck on the road, so it's hard to tell exactly why he was so much better at home. He did limit his hard hit rate at home (28.6% vs 39.7%) as well as his fly ball rate (39.1% vs 51.5%), so maybe he just enjoyed the challenge of pitching in altitude. Coming from the small town of Marion, North Carolina, up 1400 feet in the Smoky Mountains, his taking kindly to altitude makes a little sense, and as rare as it is to hear a pitcher say it, he has expressed a desire to stay in Colorado. Like Davis, he isn't a top tier closer any more, but he's not far down the list and will make any team better. For his career, the Western Carolina University alumnus is 21-18 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 370 appearances, striking out 500 and walking 151 in 377 innings for 10.9 fWAR.

3. Addison Reed (Previous Team: Red Sox. 2018 Age: 29)

2017 Stats: 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 76/15 K/BB, 76 IP, 11.61 RE24

Addison Reed may not be racking up the saves like the other guys, but he is almost just as good. This season, he pitched in 77 games and posted a 2.84 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 24.8% of the batters he faced but walking just 4.9%. The excellent control keeps runners off base and helps him stay consistent even when his stuff isn't, and he'll be a nice piece at the back of some bullpen for years, as he turns just 29 in December. For his career, the former San Diego State Aztec is 18-21 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 410 appearances, striking out 425 and walking 104 over 402.2 innings for 6.9 fWAR.

4. Steve Cishek (Previous Team: Rays. 2018 Age: 31-32)

2017 Stats: 2.01 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 41/14 K/BB, 44.2 IP, 13.84 RE24

Steve Cishek was an excellent reliever for the Marlins from 2011-2014, but it seems like he lost some of his shine with a relatively rough 2015 (3.58 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 48/27 K/BB). Quietly, he's gotten his swagger back and has proven 2015 to be more of an anomaly than a rule, setting career bests this year with a 2.01 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He started rolling more ground balls, with his 56.1% rate his highest since 2011, helping lower his BABIP to .204. He's due to for some regression, but if his ERA jumps a full run, he'll still be a very valuable asset in the bullpen. For his career, the Massachusetts native is 24-28 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 422 appearances, striking out 449 and walking 154 over 421.2 innings for 6.7 fWAR.

5. Pat Neshek (Previous Team: Rockies. 2018 Age: 37)

2017 Stats: 1.59 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 69/6 K/BB, 62.1 IP, 21.50 RE24

It didn't get a lot of attention, but Pat Neshek was awesome in 2017. Over 71 appearances, 28 of which were with the Rockies (and 14 of which were in Coors Field), Neshek put up a 1.59 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, striking out 29.4% of the batters he faced while walking just 2.6% (that would be six all year). The funky delivery and excellent command have been too much for most hitters, and though he turned 37 in September, Neshek has proven that he can still be a very effective late-inning reliever. For his career, the former Butler Bulldog is 33-22 with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 494 appearances, striking out 447 and walking 126 in 445.2 innings for 6.1 fWAR.

6. Bryan Shaw (Previous Team: Indians. 2018 Age: 30)

2017 Stats: 3.52 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 73/22 K/BB, 76.2 IP, 5.87 RE24

Bryan Shaw has quietly been a reliable reliever for the Indians, having never posted an ERA above 3.52 or a WHIP above 1.26 since joining them in 2013, appearing in at least 70 games in each season. In a time when hitters are starting to shift to fly ball approaches, he has been effective at increasing his ground ball rate, keeping runs off the board consistently. He'll be fairly cheap and can get important outs late in games. For his career, the Long Beach State alumnus is 23-28 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 475 appearances, striking out 398 and walking 151 in 446.1 innings for 4.0 fWAR.

7. Joe Smith (Previous Team: Indians. 2018 Age: 34)

2017 Stats: 3.33 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 71/10 K/BB, 54 IP, 12.41 RE24

Joe Smith turns 34 in March, but as for now, the sidearmer is still getting outs at a high rate. This past season, he only threw 54 innings, but he posted a 3.33 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP while striking out 33.2% and walking 4.7%. Those component ratios can help reduce uncertainty about Smith's production into his mid 30's, as he doesn't appear to be slowing down yet and could still have quite a few years left in him. For his career, the former Wright State Raider is 44-28 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 698 appearances, striking out 547 and walking 220 in 624.2 innings for 6.1 fWAR.

8. Brandon Kintzler (Previous Team: Nationals. 2018 Age: 33-34)

2017 Stats: 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 39/16 K/BB, 71.1 IP, 9.05 RE24

Brandon Kintzler put up his fourth very good season in five years, posting a 3.03 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 72 appearances, doing so through high ground ball rates, low hard-hit rates, and low walk rates. However, he also has low strikeout rates, just 13.5% this year. This is a little bit worrisome, as he turns 34 in August and can only ride those ground ball rates for so long. For now, though, he's still effective and he can still get outs. For his career, the former Dixie State Trailblazer is 14-14 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 298 appearances, striking out 208 and walking 75 over 306.2 innings for 2.3 fWAR.

9. Brandon Morrow (Previous Team: Dodgers. 2018 Age: 33-34)

2017 Stats: 2.06 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 50/9 K/BB, 43.2 IP, 11.90 RE24

Brandon Morrow is difficult to rank, considering he is 33 years old, injury prone, and new to relieving. This past season, his first in full time relief, was a huge success, as he posted a 2.06 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP while striking out 29.4% of his opponents and walking just 5.3%. The righty may find more durability in the bullpen, which could make him a huge boon to whoever sign him, but there is always the risk that the persistent arm troubles that have plagued him throughout his career catch up to him again. For his career, the UC-Berkeley alumnus is 51-43 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 299 games (113 starts), striking out 846 and walking 359 over 828.1 innings for 12.4 fWAR.

10. Tommy Hunter (Previous Team: Rays. 2018 Age: 31-32)

2017 Stats: 2.61 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 64/14 K/BB, 58.2 IP, 8.73 RE24

Tommy Hunter quietly posted the best year of his career, with a 2.61 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP over 61 appearances. He has sustained this success, too, having posted ERA's below 3.20 in four of the past five seasons, twice (including this year) dropping his WHIP below 1.00. His 28.1% strikeout rate was a career high this year, and he has the ability to go more than an inning, so he is a nice dynamic piece to have. For his career, the 31 year old out of the University of Alabama is 51-40 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 378 games (75 starts), striking out 510 and walking 173 in 769.1 innings for 6.1 fWAR.

Others: Matt Albers (1.62 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 63/17 K/BB, 12.26 RE24), Sergio Romo (3.56 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 59/19 K/BB, 6.12 RE24), Luke Gregerson (4.57 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 70/20 K/BB, -2.22 RE24), Tyler Clippard (4.77 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 72/31 K/BB, -6.75 RE24), Craig Stammen (3.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 74/28 K/BB, 11.97 RE24)

Left Handed Relievers

The pool of left handed relievers is usually shallow, but three great options stand out this year. Jake McGee, Mike Minor, and Tony Watson are all reliable, high-leverage guys who can fit into any bullpen. Even in the second tier, veteran guys like Zach Duke, Brian Duensing, Fernando Abad, and Boone Logan stand out, and Kevin Siegrist could be a bargain if he bounces back.

1. Jake McGee (Previous Team: Rockies. 2018 Age: 31-32)

2017 Stats: 3.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 58/16 K/BB, 57.1 IP, 12.10 RE24

It took McGee a year to adjust to Coors Field (6.38 Coors ERA in 2016, 4.73 in 2017), but he was great in 2017 with an overall 3.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. As expected, he had pronounced home/road splits (4.73 ERA, 1.35 WHIP at home, 2.64 ERA, 0.88 WHIP on road), showing he is one of the best left handed relievers available. Though he has missed some time to injuries, he is a proven talent who had very effective seasons in 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2017. As with any reliever, he carries a bit of risk, but he could help any team. For his career, the Northern Nevada native is 23-16 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 416 appearances, striking out 415 and walking 104 in 362.2 innings for 7.4 fWAR.

2. Mike Minor (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 30)

2017 Stats: 2.55 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 88/22 K/BB, 16.15 RE24

After missing 2016 due to shoulder surgery, Mike Minor was converted to relief work and he took it in stride, posting a 2.55 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 65 appearances, going multiple innings on occasion and totaling 77.2 innings. He hasn't built a track record yet, but the early results are extremely promising, enough so that he may even switch back to the rotation in 2018. For his career, the former first rounder out of Vanderbilt is 44-42 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 176 games (110 starts), striking out 654 and walking 209 in 730.1 innings for 9.0 fWAR.

3. Tony Watson (Previous Team: Dodgers. 2018 Age: 32-33)

2017 Stats: 3.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 53/20 K/BB, 66.2 IP, 4.48 RE24

Tony Watson was nearly unhittable with the Pirates from 2014-2015 (1.77 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 143/32 K/BB), and though he has come down a bit from that level, he is still very good, especially as a lefty. This past season, he was struggling a bit with the Pirates (3.66 ERA, 1.52 WHIP), but a trade to the Dodgers seemed to turn him around (2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), restoring much of his free agent stock. He's a durable lefty who has made at least 67 appearances in each of the past six seasons without his ERA ever touching 3.40, so he should fetch a fair amount on the market. For his career, the former Nebraska Cornhusker is 33-17 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 474 appearances, striking out 398 and walking 127 in 453 innings for 3.5 fWAR.

4. Zach Duke (Previous Team: Cardinals. 2018 Age: 35)

2017 Stats: 3.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 12/6 K/BB, 18.1 IP, 1.58 RE24

Zach Duke had Tommy John surgery in October of 2016, but recovered remarkably quickly and was back on a major league mound before the 2017 All Star Break. The results over 27 appearances were decent, as he posted a 3.93 ERA alongside a solid 1.04 WHIP. Back in 2016, he posted a 2.36 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 81 appearances, showcasing what he can do when healthy. He's mainly a LOOGY (left handed one out guy) at this point, but he's very effective and provides a veteran presence. For his career, the 34 year old Waco native is 61-85 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 468 games (169 starts), striking out 785 and walking 380 over 1284.2 innings for 13.5 fWAR.

5. Brian Duensing (Previous Team: Cubs. 2018 Age: 35)

2017 Stats: 2.74 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 61/18 K/BB, 62.1 IP, 14.94 RE24

Brian Duensing had a big comeback year in 2017, posting a 2.74 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with a nice 61/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 62.1 innings. He's a veteran lefty who shouldn't be too expensive, though he does turn 35 in February and he doesn't have a long track record of being much better than average. Of course, because he's left handed, his value does jump just a bit. For his career, the former Nebraska Cornhusker (where he was teammates with Watson in 2005) is 43-38 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 436 games (61 starts), striking out 499 and walking 229 in 725 innings for 5.8 fWAR.

Others: Kevin Siegrist (1-1, 4.81 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 43/22 K/BB, -3.42 RE24), Fernando Abad (3.30 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 37/14 K/BB, 7.20 RE24), Boone Logan (4.71 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 28/9 K/BB, -1.00 RE24)

Hot Stove Preview: Free Agent Outfielders

Outfielders

This year's outfield class is fairly deep, led by J.D. Martinez, Lorenzo Cain, and Shohei Ohtani, with some solid secondary options like Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, and Carlos Gomez. After those front six, the quality of the players available goes down a bit, with mostly fourth outfielders up for grabs.

Bonus: Shohei Ohtani (Previous Team: Nippon-Ham Fighters. 2018 Age: 23-24)

2017 Japan Stats: 8 HR, 31 RBI, .332 AVG, .403 OBP, .540 SLG, 0 SB

I'm not ranking Ohtani because a) he's technically not a free agent yet and b) we don't even know if he'll sign as a pitcher, a hitter, or both. I'll talk about Ohtani the outfielder here, though he is more likely to join the MLB as a pitcher. Ohtani is a power bat who slashed .332/.403/.540 with eight home runs in 65 games in Japan this year, one who could be an above average hitter in the major leagues. However, he did strike out in 27.2% of his plate appearances and walked in 10.4%. That's not the worst walk rate in the world, but he'll need to get a handle on the strike zone before facing more advanced MLB pitching. He doesn't turn 24 until July, so there is absolutely potential for growth, and he'll come much cheaper than the other free agent outfielders (likely about $25 million between the posting fee and the signing bonus). For his career, he has 48 home runs and a .286/.358/.500 line over 403 games in the Nippon Professional Baseball League, Japan's major league. More on his pitching in the next update.

1. J.D. Martinez (Previous Team: Diamondbacks. 2018 Age: 30)

2017 Stats: 45 HR, 104 RBI, .303 AVG, 4 SB, 166 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR

On the surface, it looks like J.D. Martinez had a huge power breakout in 2017, but he's actually always possessed this kind of power. His wRC+'s from 2014 to 2016 were 154, 136, and 141, but it didn't show up as much in his raw numbers because Comerica Park suppresses home run power. His numbers with the Tigers in 2017 were in fact better (.305/.388/.630, enough for a 160 wRC+), but they weren't wholly out of line for his career norms. However, when he was traded to the Diamondbacks, who play in hitter-friendly Chase Field, his slash line shot up to .302/.366/.741 with a not-too-different 172 wRC+ (remember, wRC+ is park-adjusted). This isn't to say his 2017 wasn't a career year, but it doesn't change the way I think of Martinez as a hitter by too much. In fact, I already loved him as a hitter before, and this raw number breakout just confirms it. Unless he signs with a team that plays in one of the West Coast pitchers' parks, expect him to continue to post better numbers than he did in Detroit simply due to the shape of the park around him. Martinez is a first rate bat who can anchor a lineup. For his career, the 30 year old South Florida native has 152 home runs, a .285/.342/.514 slash line, and 13.5 fWAR over 772 games.

2. Lorenzo Cain (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 15 HR, 49 RBI, .300 AVG, 26 SB, 115 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR

Lorenzo Cain quietly had another big year in 2017, slashing .300/.363/.440 with 15 home runs and 26 stolen bases, leading all free agent outfielders with 4.1 fWAR. He possesses a rare combination of elite speed and high on-base ability, which has enabled him to be a prototypical leadoff hitter with above average center field defense. His 8.4% walk rate in 2017 was a career high, only helping his case. The only reason to be weary of Cain as a free agent, aside from cost, is that much of his value comes from his speed and that at 31, he may start to slow down soon. That hasn't happened yet, as according to Baseball Savant, his sprint speed actually went up in 2017, from 28.8 and 28.7 feet per second in 2015 and 2016, respectively, to 29.1 feet per second in 2017. For his career, outfielder out of the Florida panhandle has 57 home runs, a .290/.342/.421 slash line, 127 stolen bases, and 23.5 fWAR over 756 games.

3. Jay Bruce (Previous Team: Indians. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 36 HR, 101 RBI, .254 AVG, 1 SB, 118 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR

Jay Bruce is a power bat who doesn't provide much in the way of on-base percentage (.324 last year), but he clubs home runs with consistency and will be great in the middle of whatever lineup chooses him. This past season, he slashed .254/.324/.508 with 36 home runs and a 118 wRC+, posting his best overall season since 2013. Since he debuted not long after his 21st birthday, it's easy to forget that he won't turn 31 until April, and he'll look to keep mashing wherever he signs on. For his career, the Beaumont, Texas native has 277 home runs, a .249/.319/.472 slash line, and 20.3 fWAR over 1416 games.

4. Carlos Gonzalez (Previous Team: Rockies. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 14 HR, 57 RBI, .262 AVG, 3 SB, 84 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR

This year was a bit of a lost year for Carlos Gonzalez, as he missed some time with a shoulder injury and finished with a .262/.339/.423 slash line and 14 home runs in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. The aggregate numbers don't really tell the whole story, as he did surge in September (.377/.484/.766, 6 HR) after struggling for most of the year. He also had terrible home/road splits, slashing a mighty .323/.403/.520 with eight home runs at Coors but a futile .203/.274/.332 with six home runs on the road. Whichever team signs him will be banking on a bounce back, as he did slash .298/.350/.505 with 28 home runs a year ago, good for a 110 wRC+ when you adjust for the Coors Field effect. For his career, CarGo has 215 home runs, a .288/.346/.511 slash line, and 22.9 fWAR over 1200 games.

5. Carlos Gomez (Previous Team: Rangers. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 17 HR, 51 RBI, .255 AVG, 13 SB, 110 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR

It's hard to tell what to make of Carlos Gomez. In 2014, he slashed .284/.356/.477 with 23 home runs and 34 stolen bases, racking up 5.7 fWAR. Then everything fell apart in 2015, as he slashed just .255/.314/.409 with 12 home runs and 17 stolen bases, dropping to 2.7 fWAR. He got off to an even worse start in 2016, slashing .210/.272/.322 with five home runs and 13 stolen bases in 85 games for the Astros before being traded to the Rangers, where he completely altered his approach to hitting. The results were immediate, as he finished out the year slashing .284/.362/.543 with eight home runs and five stolen bases in 33 games with the Rangers, and he was expected to carry his new approach into 2017. However, that only happened in part, as his .255/.340/.462 line with 17 home runs and 13 stolen bases was better than in years past, but not nearly what he was in those early years with the Brewers. Whoever signs Gomez is very much gambling on the soon-to-be 32 year old, which is why he may come at a bargain price. For his career, the Dominican who can do it all on his best days has 133 home runs, a .256/.315/.419 slash line, 252 stolen bases, and 28.5 fWAR over 1309 games.

6. Austin Jackson (Previous Team: Indians. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 7 HR, 35 RBI, .318 AVG, 3 SB, 131 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR

Austin Jackson has been inconsistent throughout his career, but in 85 games for the Indians this past season, he posted excellent offensive numbers by slashing .318/.387/.482 with seven home runs and a 131 wRC+, also making arguably the best defensive play of the year. Teams should be weary of signing Jackson if they're expecting last year's offensive numbers, though, as he slashed just .254/.318/.343 (81 wRC+) without any home runs in 54 games for the White Sox in 2016. He's a mixed bag, but he could be a very useful fourth outfielder or a mediocre starter. For his career, the Dallas area native has 62 home runs, a .275/.336/.403 slash line, 111 stolen bases, and 19.8 fWAR over 999 games.

7. Jon Jay (Previous Team: Cubs. 2018 Age: 33)

2017 Stats: 2 HR, 34 RBI, .296 AVG, 6 SB, 101 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR

Jon Jay has virtually no power, but he's a decent defender in center field who can get on base at a good clip. This past season was a fair assessment of his ability, as he slashed .296/.374/.375 with a pair of home runs and a 101 wRC+, virtually league average production overall. On defense, he's not particularly fast but catches everything within his range, so he does fit in center field if you need him there. He can be a starter on a below average team or a very good fourth outfielder on any team. For his career, the 32 year old former Miami Hurricane has 33 home runs, a .288/.355/.383 slash line, 51 stolen bases, and 14.1 fWAR over 988 games.

8. Melky Cabrera (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 33-34)

2017 Stats: 17 HR, 85 RBI, .285 AVG, 1 SB, 98 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

Melky Cabrera's 2017 numbers look good on the surface, but advanced metrics don't like him much. His slash line of .285/.324/.423 was essentially league average, as he showed more in the batting average department but wasn't able to augment it with enough walks to make it a strength. For his career, his walk rates have usually sat between six and eight percent, around league average, but that plummeted to a career low 5.4% in 2017 and sapped much of his offensive value. That said, Cabrera can still swing it, producing double digit home runs and slugging at least .394 in each of the past four seasons. If he can get back to being patient at the plate (which is possible considering his 46.1% swing rate was below his career average of 46.3%), he could be a productive regular in 2018, but he also turns 34 in August and may begin to slow down soon. For his career, the Dominican has 131 home runs, a .286/.335/.418 slash line, 98 stolen bases, and 13.4 fWAR over 1676 games.

9. Jose Bautista (Previous Team: Blue Jays. 2018 Age: 37)

2017 Stats: 23 HR, 65 RBI, .203 AVG, 6 SB, 80 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR

It may be surprising to see Jose Bautista ranked this low, but keep in mind that he just turned 37 and he is coming off a year where he slashed .203/.306/.366 with 23 home runs in 157 games. Right now, his value comes almost exclusively from power and walks, and at this point in his career, he is unlikely to turn it around. His strikeout rate jumped to a career high 24.8% this year, and at this point he's probably no better than a decent DH. However, it's always nice to have star power in your lineup, and Bautista can put fans in the seats at least early in the season. For his career, the Dominican has 331 home runs, a .250/.362/.480 slash line, and 33.7 fWAR over 1676 games.

10. Curtis Granderson (Previous Team: Dodgers. 2018 Age: 37)

2017 Stats: 26 HR, 64 RBI, .212 AVG, 6 SB, 105 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR

Curtis Granderson may have struggled like crazy after a trade to the Dodgers (.161/.288/.366 in 36 games), but he still put up an overall line of .212/.323/.452, which is quite good and in fact above league average (105 wRC+). He's a deceptively good player, one who gets on base and hits for power, it's hard to ignore that late season slump and the fact that he'll turn 37 in March. He should be a solid fourth outfielder on a good team or a starter on a bad team, but at the very least, he is a positive presence in the clubhouse. For his career, the UI-Chicago alumnus has 319 home runs, a .252/.339/.472 slash line, 151 stolen bases, and 46.1 fWAR over 1796 games.

11. Howie Kendrick (Previous Team: Nationals. 2018 Age: 34-35)

2017 Stats: 9 HR, 41 RBI, .315 AVG, 12 SB, 121 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR

Howie Kendrick boosted his stock with a big year with the bat, slashing .315/.368/.475 with nine home runs in 91 games, playing left field, second base, and first base. I wouldn't expect the same numbers in 2018 due to a high BABIP (.378 over a career .340) despite a regular hard-hit rate (31.4% over a career 31.3%). Still, he provides positional flexibility and has been a fairly consistent player throughout his career, so he could fill a super-utility role with his next team. For his career, the 34 year old out of St. John's River State has 104 home runs, a .291/.334/.421 slash line, 123 stolen bases, and 28.3 fWAR over 1435 games.

12. Seth Smith (Previous Team: Orioles. 2018 Age: 35)

2017 Stats: 13 HR, 32 RBI, .258 AVG, 2 SB, 105 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

Seth Smith can still hit, as evidenced by a .258/.340/.433 slash line and 105 wRC+ in 2017, but he turned 35 in September and doesn't provide any defensive value, so you'll be buying the bat with him. He also can only hit right handed pitching, so he's strictly a platoon bat. That said, he has moderate power and walks a fair amount, making him a solid option down in the lineup. For his career, the former Ole Miss Rebel has 126 home runs, a .261/.344/.446 slash line, and 13.7 fWAR over 1249 games.

Others: Cameron Maybin (10 HR, .228/.318/.365, 88 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR), Nori Aoki (5 HR, .277/.335/.393, 97 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR), Matt Holliday (19 HR, .231/.316/.432, 98 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR), Michael Saunders (6 HR, .202/.256/.344, 53 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR), Jayson Werth (10 HR, .226/.322/.393, 88 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR)

Hot Stove Preview: Free Agent Catchers and Infielders

Catchers

This year's catching crop has a few good names, with a few starter-quality guys out there, though the market overall is fairly shallow. If a team can't get its hands on Lucroy, Castillo, Avila, or Iannetta, chances are they'll have to look elsewhere for a quality backstop.

1. Jonathan Lucroy (Previous Team: Rockies. 2018 Age: 31-32)

2017 Stats: 6 HR, 40 RBI, .265 AVG, 1 SB, 82 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR

Jonathan Lucroy may be coming off a disaster of a season, one in which he slashed .265/.345/.371 with just six home runs in 123 games, but he is still the top catcher on the market. Just one year ago, Lucroy slashed .292/.355/.500 with 24 home runs in 142 games for the Brewers and Rangers, posting a 123 wRC+ and racking up 4.6 fWAR. For a catcher, that is the kind of production you dream about. However, he was completely useless with the bat with the Rangers this year, slashing just .242/.297/.338 with four home runs in 77 games before his trade this year, good for a 66 wRC+, but his bat picked up after a trade to Colorado, as he slashed .310/.429/.437 with a pair of home runs in 46 games. The surge wasn't just due to the Coors Field effect, as his 112 wRC+, which is ballpark adjusted, was well above the league average of 100. One positive sign about his struggles this year was his ground ball rate, which skyrocketed to 53.5% this year after sitting at 37.2% last year. If he can get that rate back where it needs to be and get the ball in the air more, Lucroy could easily get back his status as one of the top catchers in the game. For his career, the 31 year old former Louisiana Ragin' Cajun has 96 home runs, a .281/.343/.433 slash line, and 22.1 fWAR over 975 games.

2. Welington Castillo (Previous Team: Orioles. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 20 HR, 53 RBI, .282 AVG, 0 SB, 113 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR

Welington Castillo has quietly been a very solid catcher, racking up at least 1.6 fWAR in four of the past five seasons and reaching 2.7 in 2017. Despite missing time to injury, he still blasted 20 home runs and slashed .282/.323/.490 in 96 games, good for a 113 wRC+. Some of that power may have been a product of Camden Yards, but like Lucroy, Castillo provides value both at the plate and behind it, and that is hard to find these days. He's not as proven as Lucroy at the same age, but he is a playoff-caliber backstop. For his career, the 30 year old Dominican has 80 home runs, a .259/.319/.428 slash line, and 12.4 fWAR over 605 games.

3. Alex Avila (Previous Team: Cubs. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 14 HR, 49 RBI, .264 AVG, 0 SB, 124 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

Alex Avila is better than you think he is. He may have only been nominally average in the power, batting average, and defense departments, but he walked 62 times this year (16.5% of his plate appearances) to push his on-base percentage to an excellent .387. He is ranked below Castillo due to inconsistent production over the years (fewer than 1.2 fWAR three times in four years from 2013-2016), but his solid 2017 should not be overlooked. A career high .382 BABIP might have helped, but his 38.5% ground ball rate was the second lowest of his career and his 48.7% hard-hit rate was the highest, so don't be surprised if he can maintain this production next year. Even if he can't, he at least provides value through his walks. For his career, the 30 year old out of the University of Alabama has 87 home runs, a .243/.351/.401 line, and 14.4 fWAR over 852 games.

Others: Chris Iannetta (17 HR, .254/.354/.511, 120 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR), Nick Hundley (9 HR, .244/.272/.418, 78 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR), Rene Rivera (10 HR, .252/.305/.431, 91 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR)

First Basemen

The first base crop is deep this year, with no one player standing out but many guys available who can provide real value. In fact, most of the top guys are pretty evenly matched, though Hosmer will likely (and illogically) get the largest contract by far. In that sense, he'll likely provide the least value per dollar, and the guys in slots 2-4 might be better bargains.

1. Eric Hosmer (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 28)

2017 Stats: 25 HR, 94 RBI, .318 AVG, 6 SB, 135 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR

Eric Hosmer is a moderately overrated player, but he's still the best available at first base. A year after playing so poorly that he posted a negative fWAR of -0.1 (goes to show that 104 RBI means nothing), Hosmer had a career year in 2017, slashing .318/.385/.498 with 25 home runs, a 135 wRC+, and a career-best 4.1 fWAR. For the first time in his career, he posted All-Star level production, though it may have been fueled in part by a career-high .351 BABIP. I certainly would not give him the $100 million he very well may get, as he is essentially a just-above-league-average hitter playing poor defense at an unimportant position. He's got the star power, which is great if you want to draw fans, but he's basically a 2-3 win player that will come at the price of a 5 win player. That said, he'll be 28 for all of 2018 and has missed a total of just eight games over the past three seasons, and he's a solid player to have in the lineup. For his career, the South Florida native has 127 home runs, a .284/.342/.439 slash line, and 9.9 fWAR over 1048 games.

2. Carlos Santana (Previous Team: Indians. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 23 HR, 79 RBI, .259 AVG, 5 SB, 117 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR

Carlos Santana isn't a star, but he's a solid hitter who has posted above-league-average production in each of his eight MLB seasons and has been worth at least 2.1 fWAR in each of the past seven seasons despite mediocre defense. This past season was just about in line with his career norms, as he slashed .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs, a 117 wRC+, and 3.0 fWAR, fueled by an enviable combination of power and patience. He's actually been such a consistently patient hitter that his on-base percentage has remained between .351 and .377 in each of the past seven seasons, as his 88 walks this year were actually a career low. Combine that with at least 18 home runs in each of those seven seasons, and you have a player who provides value even without good defense. Hosmer gets the edge due to being three and a half years younger, but Santana is the better bargain. For his career, the 31 year old Dominican has 174 home runs, a .249/.365/.445 slash line, and 23 fWAR over 1116 games.

3. Logan Morrison (Previous Team: Rays. 2018 Age: 30)

2017 Stats: 38 HR, 85 RBI, .246 AVG, 2 SB, 130 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR

LoMo had a huge power breakout in 2017, smashing 38 home runs in 149 games while slashing .246/.353/.516 while returning 3.3 fWAR, the latter of which is triple his previous career high. Like most guys, he did this through a reduction in his ground ball rate (career low 33.3%) as well as an increase in his hard-hit rate (career high 37.4%). Even if without looking at those numbers, we can't chalk the season up to BABIP luck anyways, as he hit just .268 on balls in play. He ranks below Hosmer and Santana due to a lack of a track record, but his 2017 season was very solid and I see no reason why he can't repeat it next year, and likely for a bargain price. For his career, Morrison has 122 home runs, a .245/.330/.433 slash line, and 5.6 fWAR over 864 games.

4. Yonder Alonso (Previous Team: Mariners. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 28 HR, 67 RBI, .266 AVG, 2 SB, 132 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR

Like Morrison, Yonder Alonso had a huge power breakout in 2017 due to a decrease in his ground ball rate (career low 33.9%). Alonso had never accumulated more than 1.1 fWAR in a season, and last year he slashed just .253/.316/.367 with seven home runs, but this year was different. Over 142 games, he slashed .266/.365/.501 with 28 home runs and a career high 36% hard hit rate. He has played his whole career in the pitchers' parks of San Diego (2012-2015), Oakland (2016-2017), and Seattle (2017), so his numbers are more valuable than you might realize, and he could be a big presence in a batting order somewhere next year. For his career, the 30 year old former Miami Hurricane has 67 home runs, a .268/.340/.407 slash line, and 5.7 fWAR over 806 games.

Others: Lucas Duda (30 HR, .217/.322/.496, 113 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR), Mitch Moreland (22 HR, .246/.326/.443, 98 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR), Mark Reynolds (30 HR, .267/.352/.487, 104 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR)

Second Basemen

There is a thin market for second basemen, led by Neil Walker and a pair of veterans, but if a contending team is looking for a starter, Walker is really the only option. After him, Brandon Phillips and Chase Utley are a pair of veterans who can be solid backups, and then the market drops off completely.

1. Neil Walker (Previous Team: Brewers. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 14 HR, 49 RBI, .265 AVG, 0 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR

If you are looking for a second baseman in the free agent market, Neil Walker is probably the guy you want as the only starter-quality player available. Over 111 games this year, he slashed a respectable .265/.362/.439 with 14 home runs, enough for 2.1 fWAR. Those numbers don't jump off the page at you, but it is solid production at an important position. Especially nice was his 77/55 strikeout to walk ratio (17.2% to 12.3%), and with his adequate defense, he can certainly provide at least moderate value. One thing to be weary about is the fact that he has been limited to under 120 games in back to back seasons, due to back surgery in 2016 and hamstring issues in 2017. He turned 32 in September, so he is not old but is likely past his prime. For his career, the Pittsburgh native has 130 home runs, a .272/.341/.437 slash line, and 21.1 fWAR over 1060 games.

2. Brandon Phillips (Previous Team: Angels. 2018 Age: 36-37)

2017 Stats: 13 HR, 60 RBI, .285 AVG, 11 SB, 93 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR
Brandon Phillips isn't what he used to be, but he still provides value on both sides of the ball and can be a solid back-up or third-division starter even as he turns 37 in June. This past year, he slashed .285/.319/.416 with 13 home runs over 144 games, though I expect those numbers to tail off slightly this year. His power is beginning to fade, and he doesn't provide much in the way of on-base ability, but at the very least, he's a positive presence in the clubhouse. For his career, the Atlanta native has 210 home runs, a .275/.320/.421 slash line, and 32.3 fWAR over 1893 games.

3. Chase Utley (Previous Team: Dodgers 2018 Age: 39)

2017 Stats: 8 HR, 34 RBI, .236 AVG, 6 SB, 96 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR

At this point, the soon-to-be 39 year old Chase Utley is no longer a starter, but he can be a quality back-up on any team. His numbers this past season look poor on the surface (.236/.324/.405, 8 HR), but his 96 wRC+ shows that he was actually just below league average, and with 1.3 fWAR, he provided at least some value. This was due to his relatively high walk rate (9.1%), solid isolated power, and good base running. Like Phillips, at the very least, Utley can be a veteran clubhouse presence. For his career, the UCLA alumnus has 258 home runs, a .276/.359/.469 slash line, and 64.5 fWAR over 1850 games.

Others: Danny Espinosa (6 HR, .173/.245/.278, 41 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR), Darwin Barney (6 HR, .232/.275/.327, 58 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR), Cliff Pennington (3 HR, .253/.306/.330, 73 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR)

Shortstop

Like second base, the shortstop market isn't particularly deep, but Zack Cozart is a great option at the top. Behind him, there are a few players who could start for rebuilding teams, but none you'd want to carry into the playoffs as a starter. However, Alcides Escobar, Jose Reyes, and Erick Aybar could be solid options as utility guys for contending teams.

1. Zack Cozart (Previous Team: Reds. 2018 Age: 32-33)

2017 Stats: 24 HR, 63 RBI, .297 AVG, 3 SB, 141 wRC+, 5.0 fWAR

Zack Cozart may be one of the most attractive pieces on the market due to his lack of a qualifying offer as well as his high value on both sides of the ball. As a hitter, he had a breakout year in 2017 (you guessed it, with a career low 38.2% ground ball rate), slashing .297/.385/.548 with 24 home runs for the Reds, making his first All Star team and racking up 5.0 fWAR. On defense, he plays shortstop, a premium position, and plays it well. The only two things to be weary of for Cozart are his lack sustained success over multiple seasons (previous career high in fWAR was 2.5 in 2016) and his age, as he turns 33 in August. Still, any team looking for a shortstop should look at Cozart first, as he could be a bargain. For his career, the Memphis native out of Ole Miss has 82 home runs, a .254/.305/.411 slash line, and 14.9 fWAR over 743 games.

2. Alcides Escobar (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 6 HR, 54 RBI, .250 AVG, 4 SB, 62 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

Escobar provides no value with his bat, having never posted a wRC+ above 97 and holding a career mark of 72, but he provides just enough value on defense to be useful as a third division starter or a good utility man. Despite slashing just .250/.272/.357 with six home runs and a 62 wRC+ this year, he posted a 1.9 UZR, which isn't great but is enough at a tough position like shortstop. He also set a career high with 36 doubles, which isn't bad for a guy with virtually no power. For his career, the 30 year old Venezuelan has 37 home runs, a .260/.294/.346 slash line, 166 stolen bases, and 11.6 fWAR over 1297 games.

3. Jose Reyes (Previous Team: Mets. 2018 Age: 34-35)

2017 Stats: 15 HR, 58 RBI, .246 AVG, 24 SB, 94 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR

Jose Reyes may not be what he used to be, but the 34 year old has some value left in him. In 145 games for the Mets this year, he slashed ..246/.315/.413 with 15 home runs and 24 stolen bases, which aren't great numbers but were enough to push him to 2.0 fWAR, or about the average for a decent starter. His 94 wRC+ indicated that he wasn't quite league average at the plate, but he was close enough that his positional value at shortstop was enough to make him a valuable player. Don't expect him to be the first division starter or leadoff man he once was, but Reyes can be a good utility guy capable of taking over a starting job from an injured player or on a third division team. For his career, the Dominican has 141 home runs, a .286/.337/.430 line, 512 stolen bases, and 44.4 fWAR over 1767 games.

Others: Erick Aybar (7 HR, .234/.300/.348, 74 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR), J.J. Hardy (4 HR, .217/.255/.323, 50 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR), Stephen Drew (1 HR, .253/.302/.358, 70 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR)

Third Basemen

Third base appears deep, especially compared to second base and shortstop, but third base is also the deepest position in baseball as it is, especially at the top. With Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rendon, Alex Bregman, Justin Turner, etc. out there putting up huge numbers, it hasn't been all that hard to find a slugging third baseman in recent years. That said, the three guys at the top of this list are virtually equal in the value they'll likely provide, all looking like above average starters. However, Todd Frazier and Mike Moustakas could cost more, so Eduardo Nunez would likely be the best bargain. After those three, Yunel Escobar can be a mediocre starter or a solid backup, and Trevor Plouffe and Jhonny Peralta have a lot to prove after down years and will likely get minor league deals.

1. Todd Frazier (Previous Team: Yankees. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 27 HR, 76 RBI, .213 AVG, 4 SB, 108 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR

Todd Frazier is an interesting case. He set a career low in batting average at .213, but also set a career high in on-base percentage at .344 due to a 14.4% walk rate. He was able to dramatically increase that walk rate by slashing his out-of-zone swing percentage to 25% while also being more patient in the zone, swinging at a career-low 60.2% of strikes. After six years of keeping his overall swing percentage between 46.7% and 52.9%, he cut it to 40.2% in 2017, and it paid off in the walk rate. He also clubbed 27 home runs, but with just 19 doubles and one triple, his slugging percentage sat at .428. His batting averages will always be so low that his newfound patience at the plate will never give him a high on-base percentage, and his power isn't excellent, but with solid defense he can be a good third baseman on any team. For his career, the Rutgers alumnus has 175 home runs, a .245/.321/.459 slash line, and 21.2 fWAR over 938 games.

2. Mike Moustakas (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 29)

2017 Stats: 38 HR, 85 RBI, .272 AVG, 0 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR

Mike Moustakas is a solid above-average bat, but don't look into the 38 home runs and think you have a star. His .272/.314/.521 slash line looks good, especially that .521 slugging percentage, but his 5.7% walk rate suppressed his on-base percentage to the point where his 114 wRC+ was merely good, not great, in what was supposedly a career year. He'll be a very good third baseman for whatever team picks him up, especially considering that at age 29, he is one of the younger available free agents, but he'll likely cost more than he is worth. For his career, the SoCal native has 119 home runs, a .251/.305/.425 slash line, and 12.1 fWAR over 836 games.

3. Eduardo Nunez (Previous Team: Red Sox. 2018 Age: 30-31)

2017 Stats: 12 HR, 58 RBI, .313 AVG, 24 SB, 112 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR

Eduardo Nunez is ranked just below Moustakas and Frazier here, but he'll cost significantly less money and could be just as good. Last year, he quietly slashed .313/.341/.460 with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases, racking up just as much fWAR (2.2) as Moustakas and his 38 home runs. He actually had a lower walk rate (3.7%) than Moose, but he made up for it with more speed (24 stolen bases), batting average (and hence on-base percentage), and positional flexibility (he can also play second base, shortstop, and the outfield). 2017 was his third straight season with above-league-average offensive production (by wRC+), and he could be one of the better bargains on the market. For his career, the 30 year old Dominican has 46 home runs, a .282/.320/.415 slash line, 129 stolen bases, and 4.2 fWAR over 669 games (though he has 4.8 fWAR over the past two seasons).

Others: Yunel Escobar (7 HR, .274/.333/.397, 100 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR), Trevor Plouffe (9 HR, .198/.272/.318, 58 wRC+, -1.2 fWAR), Jhonny Peralta (0 HR, .204/.259/.204, 27 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR)

Biggest Takeaways From the 2017 Season

The 2017 season is complete, with the very deserving Houston Astros winning the World Series. Over the long offseason, while we impatiently wait for trades and free agent signings, we will also look back on the last six months of baseball. Each year has something it stands out for. 1967 was defined by Carl Yastrzemski's Triple Crown and the Red Sox' Impossible Dream. 1998 gave us Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa's chase for Roger Maris' home run record. 2012 introduced us to Mike Trout's ability. What will we remember in a few months? In a few years? In a few decades? Here is what stood out to me, starting with the broadest observations and finishing with more specific, nuanced takes.

The Fly Ball Revolution and the Year of the Home Run

It would be tough to argue that there was a bigger story in 2017. After years of lower offense, the Fly Ball Revolution (as well as potentially juiced baseballs) led to the largest single season output of home runs we've ever seen. Players like Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Josh Donaldson, and J.D. Martinez were at the forefront of encouraging hitters to increase their launch angles, and for most who followed (such as Yonder Alonso, Chris Taylor, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, etc.), the results were enormously positive. 2000 may have seen greater overall offensive output (fueled by the Steroid Era), but the real story of 2017 was specifically the home run. Francisco Lindor blasted 33, Rougned Odor hit 30, Chris Taylor hit 21, Marwin Gonzalez hit 23, and 5'5" Jose Altuve hit 24. None of these guys would ever strike you as home run hitters, but this was the Year of the Home Run, and it will likely continue as hitters keep aiming for fly balls rather than ground balls.

The World Series We All Wanted

Sure, it is nice when an underdog breaks through the ranks and makes a surprise run to the World Series, but every once in a while, it's nice to see the two best teams in baseball, the two that dominated their respective leagues, go head to head in a best of seven series. The 104 win Dodgers, led by the best pitcher in baseball, a deep rotation, bullpen, and lineup, and a plethora of breakout stars, matched up against the 101 Astros, led by the best collection of bats we've seen in recent memory. The Series itself lived up to the billing, showcasing back-and-forth game after back-and-forth game as the two equally matched clubs battled it out.

And a Win for Analytics

The Astros and Dodgers are two of the most analytics-heavy teams in the game, and it was a huge win for the nerds as those two met in the World Series. Analytics is growing around baseball, and what we saw this year will only speed that up.

Yankees Get Their Superstar, Prepare For New Dynasty

This may be the most visible effect of the 2017 season. The Yankees have always been a team known for their superstars: from Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig to Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford, Mickey Mantle, Thurman Munson, Ron Guidry, Don Mattingly, and Bernie Williams, it seems like every era can be defined by Yankees great or greats. Most recently, the Yanks were defined by the "Core Four" of Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte, and you can throw Alex Rodriguez and Mike Mussina in that group as well. However, over the past half-decade or so, the lineup has been devoid of any superstars as the team has attempted to rebuild. That all changed this year, when Aaron Judge exploded onto the scene with 52 home runs, and he could be the AL MVP when all is said and done. One season isn't enough to label somebody the next DiMaggio or Mantle, but the MLB is a different place when the Yankees have a superstar. Combine Judge with up and coming stars like Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino, as well as top prospects Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier (though Frazier technically is not a prospect), and this could be a new dynasty in the making.

Shift in Pitching Staff Management Continues

On a per batter basis, relievers are better than starters simply because they don't have to pace themselves. Managers are slowly beginning to realize that, and starting pitchers are finding themselves with shorter and shorter leashes. In the playoffs, teams have already almost fully adopted the strategy of yanking starters early and using your "closer" when you need him most (not necessarily in a "save situation"), and we're starting to see that strategy filter into the regular season. Starters are throwing the fewest percentage of their teams' innings in history and the trend is clearly continuing downwards. Hopefully, 2018 will be the year that "closers" start to come in at the most critical situations, not "save situations," at a higher rate. New Red Sox manager Alex Cora has hinted that he may be one to start that trend.

Braves, White Sox Position Themselves as Future Superteams

Many teams are rebuilding, but during the 2017 season, no team built up their farm system better than the Braves and White Sox. They Braves did so more through player development, which is cheaper and more sustainable, while the White Sox did so through trades, but both farm systems are fearsome to say the least. The Braves' system was led by the emergence of super-prospect Ronald Acuna, but other hitters such as Cristian Pache, Kevin Maitan, Cristian Pache, and Drew Waters help round out the offensive core. However, it's the pitching that is really exciting down on the farm, led by Luiz Gohara, Kolby Allard, Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, Max Fried, Joey Wentz, Ian Anderson, Bryse Wilson, Kyle Muller, Touki Toussaint, and many more. The talent pipeline here is seemingly endless, and they could have an extremely deep MLB roster in the near future. Meanwhile, the White Sox' system is a conglomeration of the former top prospects of other teams, as they have acquired top prospects Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Blake Rutherford, Dane Dunning, and Ryan Cordell, as well as mid-level guys like Ian Clarkin, Charlie Tilson, Luis Alexander Basabe, and A.J. Puckett. They also have their fair share of homegrown talent, led by recent draft picks Carson Fulmer, Alec Hansen, Zack Collins, Jake Burger, and Zack Burdi, as well as Cuban star Luis Robert.

Bud Black Establishes Rockies' First Effective Starting Rotation

You may not have noticed it, but first year Rockies manager did something amazing with the Colorado rotation. The team has difficulty attracting top-flight starting pitchers to ruin their career numbers in Coors Field, and young pitchers can often have their confidence dashed when they get blown up in the extremely hitter-friendly conditions. Because of this, the Rockies have never had a starting rotation worth bragging about until a staff full of rookies went out and shoved. 25 year old Jon Gray, in his second full season, went out and led the rotation by going 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, with his 73 ERA- (ballpark adjusted, lower is better, 100 is average) being better than that of Carlos Carrasco (73), Justin Verlander (76), Rich Hill (80), Madison Bumgarner (80), Jake Arrieta (81), Lance Lynn (81), and Yu Darvish (86), just to name a few. However, he was far from the only Rockies' pitcher to break out. 24 year old rookie Kyle Freeland went 11-11 with a 4.10 ERA (82 ERA-) and a 1.49 WHIP, 22 year old rookie German Marquez was 11-7 with a 4.39 ERA (87 ERA-) and a 1.38 WHIP, and fellow 22 year old rookie Antonio Senzatela was 10-5 with a 4.68 ERA (93 ERA-) and a 1.30 WHIP. That's four pitchers 25 and under, three of which had never thrown an MLB pitch prior to 2017, who went out and pitched better than league average in the toughest of situations. While the offense struggled outside of Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, these four were fun to watch, and could be the anchors of a great Rockies rotation for years to come.

Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw Continue to Build Resumes As All Time Greats

Though both missed time to injury this year, Trout and Kershaw are looking more and more like they could will end up among the all time greats at their positions. In 114 games, Trout slashed .306/.442/.629 with 33 home runs and 22 stolen bases, marking his sixth straight season with at least 6.9 fWAR and a 167 wRC+. Through 925 games and at age 26, he has accumulated 54.4 fWAR, which puts him 156th all time and ahead of greats like Vladimir Guerrero (54.3), George Sisler (51.9), Jim Rice (50.8), David Ortiz (50.7), and Fred Lynn (49.2). With another seven win season (his career low is 6.9), he could jump to 110th all time. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw made only 27 starts, but he still went 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 202/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 175 innings. In terms of ERA as well as WHIP, that was actually his worst season since 2012, when his 2.53 ERA and 1.02 WHIP were best in the National League. Yes, you read that correctly; by two good metrics, his worst season in the past six seasons was still best in the National League. For his career, he is now 144-64 with a 2.36 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, giving him the lowest ERA by a starter in the history of the Live Ball Era (post 1919, minimum 1500 innings), way ahead of second place Whitey Ford (2.75). In terms of ERA- (see above paragraph), his 62 mark is the lowest of all time.

New Wave of Stars Continues to Emerge

Though it was a great year for rookies Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, many young players who have already established their names are working their way from star-level to superstar-level. Jose Altuve, after a few years of above average production, has now put up back to back seasons of 6.8 fWAR and 7.5 fWAR, proving 2016 was no fluke and establishing himself as one of the top players in the game. Meanwhile, the Indians built up a pair of homegrown offensive stars, with Francisco Lindor posting fWAR's of 6.2 and 5.9 over the past two seasons and Jose Ramirez quietly turning himself into an elite third baseman. We all know about Lindor's great defense and dynamic offensive style, but Ramirez goes criminally un-talked about. He was very good in 2016 (.312/.363/.462, 11 HR, 46 2B, 4.7 fWAR), but he really burst out in 2017, slashing .318/.374/.583 with 29 home runs, 56 doubles, six triples, and 6.6 fWAR. Together, he and Giancarlo Stanton not only tied for the MLB lead with 91 extra base hits, but also posted the most in a season since Chris Davis' 96 in 2013. Another big season from Ramirez and we should start to hear is name a lot more in the national baseball media. Furthermore, Corey Seager nearly matched his huge rookie campaign, working to join Trout and Kershaw as the faces of West Coast Baseball. After posting a ridiculous 7.4 fWAR as a 22 year old rookie in 2016, he was able to rack up 5.7 in 2016 despite only playing in 145 games. There is also Kris Bryant, who nearly matched his MVP 2016 season with a 6.7 fWAR campaign (after 8.3 in 2016). On the mound, Noah Syndergaard may not have been able to further his name, but one Indians pitcher is quietly out-pitching tons of big names. Carlos Carrasco just posted his third season in the past four years with an ERA of 3.32 or lower, with 2017 actually being his best yet. Over 32 starts, the 30 year old went 18-6 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 226 and walking 46 in 200 innings. He's not a traditional rising star given his age, but he is a late bloomer who has not received enough attention from national baseball media. Luis Severino had everything to prove after a disastrous 2016, and he proved it all by going 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, striking out 230 in 193.1 innings. Other young pitchers to insert themselves into the national discussion or otherwise enhance their names include Robbie Ray (15-5, 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Marcus Stroman (13-9, 3.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), and Drew Pomeranz (17-6, 3.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP). Relievers Corey Knebel (1.78 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 126/40 K/BB), Brad Hand (2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 104/20 K/BB), Felipe Rivero (1.67 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 88/20 K/BB), and Chris Devenski (2.68 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 100/26 K/BB) also did great work to join the Kenley Jansens, Craig Kimbrels, and Aroldis Chapmans at the top of the reliever hierarchy.