The Padres stayed on brand with this draft, picking up two high school position players (both Maryland natives) with their first two picks. Some around the industry are a bit surprised by this draft, with first rounder Jackson Merrill being a bit of an unknown and second rounder James Wood (who earned $800K more) coming off a rough spring. Indeed, it will probably be boom or bust between these two kids, who could make AJ Preller look either really smart or foolhardy in a few years. After spending $4.4 million on those two kids, the Padres moved to the college ranks to save some money, picking up three consecutive pitchers who are already 22 or older, and really leaning on college players the rest of the way out. Kevin Kopps is of course the most interesting pick as the 24 year old Golden Spikes winner, while my favorite could end up being Ryan Bergert if he comes back healthy from Tommy John surgery.
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1-27: SS Jackson Merrill, Severna Park HS [MD]. My rank: #72.
This pick surprised many outside the industry, as Jackson Merrill was ranked #79 on MLB Pipeline and #102 on Baseball America. He was ranked #72 on my board and this will be a money saving pick, but don't think this was a reach. Merrill was a true pop-up prospect this spring, coming out for his senior season with a changed body and the results followed and then some. In addition to hitting for significantly more power than he has in the past, the Annapolis-area product also hit everything in sight, getting really nice leverage and loft from his now-6'2" frame and getting to that power consistently. He projects to stay on the right side of the infield with a strong arm, and given that the Padres are drafting him here in the first round, they probably think he'll be at least an average defender at shortstop. That remains to be seen, as does his ability to hit against higher-level pitching, as his bat is pretty untested against advanced competition. Merrill is committed to Kentucky but signed for $1.8 million, which was about $770,000 below the slot value of $2.57 million and about the value of the 41st pick.
2-62: OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #36.
I don't think I realized how tough of a spring James Wood had until after the draft, hence the high ranking. Wood, like Merrill, is from Maryland, but he transferred down to the IMG Academy in Florida to build his draft stock, which ultimately did not happen this spring. At his best over the summer, the 6'6" slugger showed massive raw power from the left side of the plate to go along with a patient approach that earned him comparisons to Zac Veen from last year's class. In fact, heading into the spring, many thought he had a chance to be drafted in the same range (Veen went ninth overall to the Rockies). The power was still there this spring, but Wood swung and missed significantly more often than scouts wanted to see, raising questions as to whether he could tap his power against pro pitching. He's a big guy with long legs and long arms and he starts with his hands low, something which wasn't an issue over the summer but could have contributed to making things difficult in 2021. Wood tweaked his setup at times as well, but to no avail. The Padres are buying into his massive upside here in the second round, and his presently above average speed also gives him an additional way to impact the game. He signed for $2.6 million, which was more than double the slot value of $1.1 million and in fact more than what Merrill signed for. $2.6 million would be roughly slot value for the 27th pick.
CBB-71: LHP Robert Gasser, Houston. My rank: #81.
Robert Gasser has had a meteoric rise to stardom after a winding road to get there. A Sacramento-area native, he began his career at New Mexico, moved on to Delta College back in California, then to the University of Houston, where he got knocked around in brief action in 2020. Things were different right from the start in 2021, however, after he followed strong starts against Texas Southern and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to match Tigers comp pick and Longhorn ace Ty Madden pitch for pitch in his third start. By the end of the season, Gasser had a 2.63 ERA and a strong 105/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.2 innings, including double digit strikeout performances against Texas State, Oklahoma, Memphis, and Tulane. He's a 6'1" lefty with a fastball that has ticked into the low 90's, touching 96, working in an above average slider that dives across the plate and a fading changeup. Gasser doesn't have pinpoint command but he locates his pitches well to both sides of the plate, and his low arm slot and crossfire action put some deception on his pitches. It's not the world's highest ceiling, but he has a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter, with a fallback option as a left handed reliever that can combine power stuff with a little bit of funk. Despite already having turned 22, he signed for full slot value at $884,200.
3-99: RHP Kevin Kopps, Arkansas. My rank: #188.
If you follow college baseball, you know all about Kevin Kopps. If you don't then you have a lot to catch up on. Kopps, like Gasser, has taken a long road to stardom, redshirting his freshman year in 2016 before serving as a solid if unspectacular reliever for Arkansas during his middle seasons (3.24 ERA, 86/30 K/BB in 86 IP). Those numbers were sandwiched around Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2018 season, then Kopps struggled to an 8.18 ERA in the shortened 2020 season. Returning in 2021 for his redshirt-redshirt senior season, the switch flipped on. The Houston-area native went 12-1 with a 0.90 ERA and a 131/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings, running a strikeout rate near 40% against some of the best competition in college baseball. Despite often throwing three or four innings per relief appearance, he didn't allow more than one run in any single game until his last one of the season, in which he made his very first start of the season against a red hot NC State team on short rest and allowed three over eight innings in what ended up being Arkansas' final game. The 2021 Golden Spikes winner harkens back to Mariano Rivera a bit with his tendency to work off one pitch – a cutter/slider hybrid that can move along the spectrum. Kopps has legitimate 80 grade feel for the pitch, showing the ability to tighten it up, allow it to break with more depth at other times, and locating it with precision to all four quadrants of the zone. Flip on any one of his appearances this season and you would see very disciplined SEC hitters flailing at it, rarely putting good swings on the pitch. The 6' righty also shows a low 90's fastball that functions as average and a below average curve and changeup, but the cutter/slider is his bread and butter. Despite throwing seventeen innings in just two weeks during the NCAA Tournament (and allowing just three runs while striking out nineteen), Kopps almost certainly profiles as a reliever in pro ball due to his lack of a second above average pitch, but he says he prefers the "chaos" of relief work anyways as opposed to getting into a routine as a starter. Already 24 years old, he was the second oldest player taken in the entire draft behind White Sox seventh rounder Theo Denlinger (25), but he likely won't pitch in the majors this year due to his heavy workload in Fayetteville. Once the Padres get him rested up and on their throwing program, though, he could be up pretty quickly in 2022. Slot value is $587,400, but I doubt his bonus will come close to that.
4-129: LHP Jackson Wolf, West Virginia. Unranked.
Another pick, another senior sign. Jackson Wolf, unlike Gasser or Kopps, was a well-known name for the 2020 class after posting a 1.05 ERA and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings in the shortened season, but he went undrafted and returned to Morgantown. This year, he did everything that was expected of him, posting a 3.03 ERA and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 innings, but it wasn't quite an Andrew Abbott-esque or Matt Mikulski-esque performance to increase his stock significantly. He's a 6'7" lefty, which will immediately grab your attention, and he fills up the strike zone with three pitches. Wolf's fastball sits around 90, a slight tick above where it was last year, and can scrape the mid 90's at its best, but it plays up due to his excellent extension that really does make a difference. His slider is slurvy and his changeup is average at best, but the three pitches work well off each other and he's proven durable so far. He throws strikes, but it's not pinpoint command – just enough to make it all work. If the Columbus-area native is to remain a starter, he'll need to tighten up his offspeed pitches, but he more likely profiles as a reliever who can run that fastball up another tick or two and hopefully sharpen that slider. Slot value is $438,700, but I don't think he gets close to that.
5-160: 2B Max Ferguson, Tennessee. My rank: #179.
It was a tough season for Max Ferguson. A high school classmate of Alabama and now Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (a year older), in addition to Florida star and likely high 2022 pick Hunter Barco (a year younger), he had an unremarkable freshman season but slashed .333/.462/.524 in the shortened 2020 season, leading to some optimism that he could be a high pick in 2021. Instead, the Jacksonville native ended up at .253/.378/.461 with twelve home runs and a 71/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games with a hitter-friendly home park, albeit against a tough SEC schedule. So what happened? Ferguson is a skinny kid at a listed 6'1", 180 pounds, and in that strong 2020 season he was noted as a strong contact hitter who might not hit for much impact in pro ball. So in 2021, he tried to show that impact by yanking home runs to the pull side and lifting the ball, and it worked to a degree with a strong .208 ISO (SLG - AVG), but it also came with an elevated 22.8% strikeout rate (up from 15% over his first two seasons). For a hitter who didn't quite sell the power, that's a tough look, and he'll likely need to go back to being hit over power in pro ball if he wants to succeed. The good news is Ferguson is a great athlete who shows strong bat to ball skills and barrel control when he's not trying to do too much, and with proper development he should be able to work his way back towards being a high on-base guy who can steal you a few bags (he has 28 in 114 career games at Tennessee). He fits at second base due to a below average arm, but could have the speed to handle center field. To me, it's a utility profile. He signed for full slot value at $324,100.
6-190: RHP Ryan Bergert, West Virginia. Unranked.
Four players were drafted out of West Virginia this year, and all four were pitchers going to NL West rivals – I didn't mention them in the Dodgers writeup, but Madison Jeffrey and Adam Tulloch went in the 15th and 17th rounds, respectively, to Los Angeles, while San Diego grabbed Jackson Wolf in the fourth and Ryan Bergert here in the sixth. I tabbed Bergert as a sleeper heading into the season, but unfortunately, he blew out his elbow and didn't pitch at all. Over his first two years in Morgantown, though, he was phenomenal – 2.30 ERA, 68/19 K/BB in 58.2 innings. His fastball sits in the low 90's, getting up to 94-95 at best, and playing up due to high spin rates. He also shows an inconsistent curveball that doesn't always have the finish he would like, but which should be an above average pitch with a bit more development, as well as an average slider. The 6'1" righty doesn't have much of a changeup this point, which will be a point of development in pro ball, and his command is average. He'll have to work his way back first, but once healthy, some tweaks here and there could make him a very solid rotation option. It's always hard to peg injured pitchers' signing bonus demands, and slot value sits at $251,100 here.
18-550: LHP Gage Jump, JSerra Catholic HS [CA]. My rank: #20.
With James Wood signing for $1.5 million above slot value, it's hard to see Gage Jump signing here, especially when he seemed dead set on heading to UCLA anyways. Jump, in my opinion, was the second best high school pitcher in the class behind only Jackson Jobe, who went third overall to the Tigers. He's an undersized lefty at 5'11", sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and getting up to 94-95. That fastball plays way up because he gets great extension, a low release, and high spin rates from that smaller frame, putting exceptional ride on the ball and missing plenty of bats. His top to bottom curveball plays extremely well off his fastball, and he adds an above average slider as well. Jump is a competitor that fills up the strike zone consistently, earning comps to a left handed Jack Leiter, and he could find himself in a similar position after three years in Westwood. He attended high school not far from San Diego, just an hour or so north of PETCO in San Juan Capistrano.
20-610: RHP Chase Burns, Beech HS [TN]. My rank: #84.
This is another one that almost certainly won't sign. Chase Burns is one of the hardest throwers in the prep class, touching triple digits with his fastball and usually sitting in the mid 90's, and it gets exceptional spin and ride (like Jump, but faster) that make it a plus-plus pitch when it's located. Burns also adds an inconsistent curve that flashes plus 12-6 movement at its best, and his slider is a bit shorter but flashes plus as well with late bite. His changeup is inconsistent as well, but has its moments. The problem here is that his delivery is somewhat rigid, which combined with the poor history of hard throwing high schoolers, makes it a very scary profile. I would like to see the Nashville-area native head to Tennessee, which it looks like is going to happen, to prove his durability as a starting pitcher before jumping on board. If he does hold up over three years in Knoxville, we're looking at a huge ceiling for the 6'4" righty.
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