RHP Tanner Burns, Auburn
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DoB: 12/28/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 2.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 22.1 IP
Coming out of Decatur High School in northern Alabama, Burns was one of the better prep arms available in the 2017 draft and could have gone as high as the comp round had he been signable. Instead, he headed down south to Auburn and has been one of the steadiest contributors in college baseball ever since. As a freshman, he put up a 3.01 ERA and a 77/37 strikeout to walk ratio across 86.2 innings, a impressive line no matter the context but exceptional for a freshman in the SEC. He followed that up with an even better sophomore season in 2019, putting up a 2.82 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 101/23 strikeout to walk ratio across 79.2 innings, and he was off to a strong start again in 2020 before the season shut down. In what was likely the final start of his college career, he struck out ten and allowed just one hit across seven scoreless innings against Chicago State. Among college arms, Burns might have the most complete, consistent track record in a very deep class, as it's not often that a kid can come in and thrive in the SEC from day one.
A shorter, stockier kid at six feet tall, Burns is more about floor than ceiling. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can hold that velocity into the late innings, though he doesn't project to add much from here. He throws both a slider and a curveball, though the two can blend into each other and the slider is definitely the better pitch. That slider is his bread and butter, with low to mid 80's velocity as well as big, hard break. The curveball, meanwhile, is about five miles per hour slower and doesn't have quite the sharp bite of his slider, and it will need significant work if he wants to keep throwing it in pro ball. If he can get a bit more consistent with those two breaking balls, perhaps learning to intentionally manipulate the two pitches into a spectrum of sorts rather than falling victim to that unintentional blend, he'll rack up plenty of strikeouts at the big league level. Burns also throws a pretty decent changeup, and there's no reason to think it can't be at least an average pitch at the next level.
Burns doesn't have pinpoint command, but he hits his spots consistently and seems like the kind of guy who could wind up with plus command down the line. He has a very strong lower half and uses that strength to drive into his pitches, allowing him to hit 96 or 97 at times and maintain that low to mid 90's velocity throughout games and throughout the season. He's not the biggest guy in the world, but he has proven durable in college and should have no trouble adjusting to a 200 inning season.
Burns comes with a bit of a limited ceiling, but the right-now product is very good and he has a high floor as a #4 or #5 innings-eating starter and the ceiling of a dependable mid-rotation guy. In a draft class where a lot of guys could fall due to a lack of a track record, Burns should benefit from a career 2.86 ERA and 210/67 strikeout to walk ratio across 188.2 innings as an SEC starter. His likely draft range is the back half of the first round, though that track record could push him closer to the middle if teams prefer his dependability over wild cards like Garrett Crochet and Carmen Mlodzinski.
Game footage from Chicago State start
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