In my opinion, this is the best system in the minors – the Padres might have an argument if Brendan McKay had thrown one more inning in the majors, but he sits at 49 heading in 2020, keeping him technically a rookie. This system is just so deep everywhere you look, and I think that starts with the infield. Wander Franco is just 18 years old and already tackled High A with flying colors, making him arguably the best prospect in baseball at any position, while guys like Vidal Brujan, Xavier Edwards, and Greg Jones all have star potential as well. The outfield doesn't have any of those true stud prospects, but Josh Lowe and Randy Arozarena lead a deep group that's bound to have more than a few guys pan out. On the mound, McKay and the long-injured Brent Honeywell are major league ready arms with ace upside, while guys like Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, JJ Goss, Seth Johnson, and Resly Linares ooze with upside as well. Behind them, there's a whole group of less well-known arms that broke out in 2019, most notably Joe Ryan, Tommy Romero, and Michael Plassmeyer. The amount of talent here is just unreal.
Affiliates: AAA Durham Bulls, AA Montgomery Biscuits, High A Charlotte Stone Crabs, short season Hudson Valley Renegades, rookie level Princeton Rays, complex level GCL and DSL Rays
Catcher
- Ronaldo Hernandez (2020 Age: 22): Hernandez has hit his way up through the minors, including knocking 21 home runs in 2018, though the pitcher-friendly Florida State League might have sapped his offense a bit as he slashed .265/.299/.397 with nine home runs and a 65/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at High A Charlotte. He has high upside at the plate, given his great ability to make contact and his explosive right handed swing. He gets the ball in the air, but he does need to add actual loft to his swing rather than just hitting the bottom of the ball to tap his power more often against advanced pitching. He's young enough to make those adjustments, and certainly talented enough given that he's so adept at making contact and maintains such an explosive swing. Defensively, he has a strong arm and is otherwise capable behind the plate, taking some pressure off his bat (not that it needs to be off), and overall he has the ceiling of a starting catcher who can hit 20-25 home runs per season. He'll just need to shake off an up and down 2019.
- Brett Sullivan (2020 Age: 26): Sullivan was a 17th round pick out of Pacific in 2015, but he's hit at every stop along the way in the minors and now looks like a nice backup option in the near future. In 2019, he slashed .280/.333/.459 with ten home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 48/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at AA Montgomery, showing a power/patience/speed combination you don't typically see in a catcher. He's got some nice power from the left side, and he manages the strike zone extremely well and is tough to strike out, which has helped his power play up. Defensively, he's decent behind the plate but is also athletic enough to handle almost any position on the field except shortstop and of obviously pitcher. The Rays won't let him hold back Hernandez, who is easily the superior prospect, but Sullivan has the chance to hit his way onto the major league club as a versatile C/IF/OF super-utility type with some power.
- Keep an eye on: Rene Pinto, Chris Betts
Corner Infield
- Brendan McKay (2020 Age: 24): I'm going to list McKay twice. Drafted as the fourth overall pick out of Louisville in 2017, McKay's arm is ahead of his bat at this point, as he slashed just .200/.298/.331 with five home runs and a 51/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham. Additionally, he homered and singled in ten at bats in the majors, striking out twice and walking once. He generates plus power from a leveraged left handed swing, and he's controlled the strike zone exceptionally well throughout his career until he reached the upper minors in 2019. However, he hasn't quite gotten to that power as much as he would have liked to in pro ball, as he's hit too many ground balls to truly tap it. I'm sure that could easily be remedied if he gave up pitching and focused on hitting. Of course, given that he's a better pitcher than hitter, that won't happen, nor should it. I wouldn't expect him to hit like Shohei Ohtani in the majors, but he could be a nice bench or platoon bat that only has to worry about staying fresh against right handed pitchers. Or, it might just be time that he needs instead of specialized focus, and he could end up as a legitimate high on-base power hitter. I'd expect the former projection though for the DH.
- Kevin Padlo (2020 Age: 23-24): Padlo was a Rockies' fifth round pick out of a Southern California high school back in 2014, and he came over to the Rays in the Jake McGee/Corey Dickerson trade in 2016. He broke out offensively in 2019, slashing .265/.389/.538 with 21 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 116/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham, which is huge given that he's a corner infielder who needs to hit to provide value. Padlo has the power to hit the ball out of any park and the patience to draw plenty of walks and get his pitch to hit, though he also has some swing and miss in his game that makes it difficult for him to profile as a long term starter at first or third base. The Rays don't have any true roadblocks at either of those positions, but they also have a lot of depth that might make it difficult to break through. He does crush left handed pitching, which on a team like the Rays that loves to mix and match, might actually be better for his overall outlook than if he hit both lefties and righties equally.
- Keep an eye on: Jim Haley, Dalton Kelly, Jake Guenther
Middle Infield
- Wander Franco (2020 Age: 19): I typically go in order from top of the minors to bottom, but being that Franco is the second coming of Fernando Tatis Jr. and likely the top prospect in baseball, he'll earn the first spot in the middle infield section even from A ball. Franco was signed out of the Dominican Republic for $3.8 million in 2017, and that's already looking like an absolute bargain. He tore up the rookie level Appalachian League to the tune of a .351/.418/.587 line in 2018 at an age when most Dominican signees are still on the island, then in 2019, he slashed .327/.398/.487 with nine home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 35/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte. Franco has top of the scale plate discipline that has enabled him to walk significantly more than he's struck out at every level despite being significantly younger than his competition the whole time, and his elite feel for the barrel enables him to make hard contact in virtually every at bat. For now, he's more of a line drive hitter, but he played the entire 2019 season at just 18 years old and his explosive hands and bat make it easy to project him for at least above average power if not better. Defensively, he has a strong arm but it's unclear where he'll end up in the infield, but given that he's just a teenager, he does have plenty of time to refine his actions at shortstop. Overall, that's about as complete of a skill set as you can have for a teenager, and it's easy to project him as hitting anywhere from 15 to 30 home runs per season with on-base percentages north of .400 and some stolen bases to boot. He probably starts 2020 in AA, but if he hits as expected, there's a non-zero chance he could force his way onto the big league roster by the end of the season.
- Vidal Brujan (2020 Age: 22): While Franco deservedly gets most of the hype as the potential shortstop of the future, but Vidal Brujan gives the Rays another elite middle infield prospect coming through the ranks. Listed at just 5'9" and 155 pounds, he's a little guy who originally signed for a paltry $15,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2014, but his combination of speed and feel for the barrel has slowly pushed him to the national prospect discussion. In 2019, Brujan slashed .277/.346/.389 with four home runs, 48 stolen bases, and a 61/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at High A Charlotte and AA Montgomery, giving him 103 stolen bases over the past two seasons and putting him within arm's reach of the majors. He employs an extremely quick bat and great feel for the barrel from the left side, enabling him to hit for high averages, avoid strikeouts, and most importantly, get the ball in play so he can get the most out of his elite speed. He's not much of a power hitter and never will be, but he has enough strength to be an extra base threat who can drop the ball into the gap and run wild on the bases. Defensively, he's a little small for shortstop but he plays a very good second base, and he could hit his way into a starting role by the end of 2020. Overall, that's the upside of 5-10 home runs per season, high on-base percentages, and a ton of stolen bases with good defense.
- Taylor Walls (2020 Age: 23-24): Walls grew up in southern Georgia, but as a 2017 third round pick out of Florida State, he earns the title of a semi-hometown player. He hit well against younger competition in 2018 (.304/.393/.428 in Class A) before a more challenging assignment in 2019, where he slashed .270/.343/.452 with ten home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 79/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games at High A Charlotte and AA Montgomery. Originally much more of a pure contact hitter in college and in Class A, he originally struggled with swing and miss when trying to hit for power but the Rays have helped him change that and become more of a complete hitter. Walls retains the strong plate discipline he's always had, though he's begun to lift the ball more and successfully tap some extra base and home run power without sacrificing his on-base percentage. Overall, it's a little bit too light of an offensive package to profile as a starter, especially with Franco and Brujan in this organization, but his defensive versatility gives him a good shot at becoming a very useful utility infielder in the near future.
- Lucius Fox (2020 Age: 22-23): Fox originally signed with the Giants for $6 million out of the Bahamas in 2015, then came over in the Matt Moore trade in 2016. However, his bat has failed to materialize at this point, and in 2019 he slashed .221/.331/.327 with three home runs, 39 stolen bases, and a 104/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham. He's a very patient hitter than can draw walks, after which he can use his elite speed to steal a bunch of bases, including at least 25 in each of the past four seasons and 123 in total. He has good bat to ball skills, though to this point he's failed to hit for any kind of impact and likely won't ever hit enough to start full time. Given his speed and his great infield defense, he does profile well as a quality utility infielder who can control the strike zone and steal a bunch of bases. Fox also comes with some upside if he can make more hard contact.
- Xavier Edwards (2020 Age: 20-21): Originally a Padres' 2018 competitive balance pick out of high school in Broward County, Edwards was sent back home to Florida in the Tommy Pham deal this offseason and gives the Rays another big time middle infield prospect. He proved to be remarkably advanced in his first full season, slashing .322/.375/.396 with a home run, 34 stolen bases, and a 54/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games between Class A and High A, showing exceptional feel for the barrel and the strike zone along the way. At a skinny 5'10", it's hard to project him for much power, but Edwards makes such easy, consistent, hard contact that he should hit plenty of doubles and triples that can be stretched with his elite speed. Originally a 50/50 shortstop who may have to move to second base, he's improved and now looks like he'll be able to remain at short, as his range helps him make up for an average arm. Together, I'd project him as a starting shortstop in most organizations, though he'll probably have to either push Wander Franco over to third base or out-hit Vidal Brujan to start in this one. I think it's doable, with the former outcome more likely.
- Greg Jones (2020 Age: 22): Jones is an interesting one. A well regarded prospect coming out of a Raleigh-area high school in 2017, he instead opted to attend UNC Wilmington, where he was eligible as a sophomore because he was a year old for his class. Originally viewed as more of a second or third rounder, he got hot late in the spring and shot up draft boards at the last second, landing with the Rays at pick #22 in the first round of 2019. He continued his hot hitting in pro ball, slashing .335/.413/.461 with one home run, 19 stolen bases, and a 56/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games at short season Hudson Valley. He still has a fair amount of swing and miss in his game, but it's been decreasing and he's been finding the barrel more and more consistently. There's not a ton of home run power unless he beefs up a little bit and changes his approach, but he has the exceptional speed to profile well as a high on-base guy who hits 5-15 home runs per season. Defensively, there are questions as to whether he'll stick at shortstop, especially given all the talent there in this organization, but he could end up an above average center fielder with that elite speed.
- Keep an eye on: Miles Mastrobuoni, Tristan Gray, Tyler Frank, Zach Rutherford, Ford Proctor, Nick Sogard, Alejandro Pie
Outfield
- Randy Arozarena (2020 Age: 25): *Copied from the Cardinals' system review, as Arozarena came over in the Tommy Pham deal:* "Arozarena was a highly touted Cuban import who signed for $1.25 million in in 2016, then broke out in upper minors in 2019. This year, he slashed .344/.431/.571 with 15 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 71/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, then hit .300/.391/.500 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a 19 game debut with the Cardinals. At 5'11", he doesn't have a ton of raw pop, but he knows how to get to it and has hit double digit home runs all three years in the minors. That's more due to his feel for the barrel, which has enabled him to limit his strikeouts and consistently make hard contact, leading to high batting averages, albeit without a ton of walks." The Rays like to mix and match a lot of their players, which will give Arozarena the chance to compete for a major league role right away, and in all he projects for about 15 home runs per season, a few stolen bases, and solid, batting average-driven on-base percentages.
- Josh Lowe (2020 Age: 22): The younger brother of current Rays first baseman Nate Lowe, Josh was a first round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school back in 2016 but took some time to get things figured out in pro ball. After slashing just .238/.322/.361 in High A in 2018, he broke out with a strong .252/.341/.442 line as well as 18 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 132/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at AA Montgomery in 2019. Always a great athlete, he's struggled to find the barrel consistently and hit for impact in pro ball, and it took until 2019 for him to start to change that. He still comes in with great speed and defense, which in addition to his draft stock, buys his bat time, and if he can continue to tap that power in 2020 and beyond, he could be a fringe starter. The next step will probably be cutting down on some of his swing and miss, but he's in a better spot this year than he was last year. The Rays are still hoping they have their center fielder of the future, but a career as a fourth outfielder remains a distinct possibility.
- Moises Gomez (2020 Age: 21): Gomez is a very high ceiling, low floor type who could really turn out to be something special. Signed for just $40,000 out of Venezuela in 2015, he put himself on the map with a huge 2018 (19 HR, .280/.328/.503 in Class A) before struggling in 2019 with a .220/.297/.402 slash line, 16 home runs, and a 164/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Charlotte. Though he's just 5'10", he packs a lot of strength into his shorter frame which in turn generates a lot of raw power from the right side, which he has gotten to consistently. However, he struggles with contact, often chasing breaking balls out of the zone and racking up high strikeout totals. The good news is he's still young, only having turned 21 at the end of the 2019 season, with plenty of time to refine his approach. He has the chance to become a 20-30 home run bat, but there's also a good chance he ends up as a fourth outfielder or a platoon guy if pitchers can keep exploiting his approach.
- Cal Stevenson (2020 Age: 23): *Copied from the Astros system review after Stevenson was traded for Austin Pruitt:* Stevenson was a tenth round pick out of Arizona by the Blue Jays in 2018, then hit a sensational .369/.511/.523 with 21 stolen bases in his pro debut. He skipped Class A entirely and was traded to the Astros as part of the mid-season Derek Fisher/Aaron Sanchez deal, slashing .288/.388/.384 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 65/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between the two High A affiliates. He manages the strike zone exceptionally well, perhaps better than any hitter in this system, and that enables him to be an on-base machine day in and day out. He lacks impact at the plate, which is why is on-base skills are so critical, but his feel for the strike zone helps him find the barrel more often than not and hit for high averages. Stevenson is also a strong defender in center field and can steal a base, giving him a fourth outfielder projection.
- Niko Hulsizer (2020 Age: 23): Niko Hulsizer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers at Morehead State, which is one of the most hitter-friendly venues in college baseball, including knocking 27 home runs in just 59 games as a sophomore in 2017. He made some adjustments as a sophomore to become a more complete hitter and landed in the 18th round with the Dodgers, then came over to the Rays for Adam Kolarek in 2019. Between the two organizations, he slashed .258/.366/.525 with 21 home runs and a 123/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games between Class A, High A, and some complex level rehab work, showing off his big raw power as well as significant swing and miss. There's no question about who Hulsizer is as a hitter, as his explosive, all out right handed swing can make the ball jump off his bat in ways typically reserved for those blue chip prospects. He's also a patient hitter who is more than willing to draw a walk, a trait which has helped his power play up against pro pitching. He'll need to cut down on his swing and miss going forward, but Hulsizer is already looking like a late round gem and he could work his way up as a power hitting bench bat.
- Tanner Dodson (2020 Age: 22-23): Dodson was a two way player at California, and one year after selecting Brendan McKay out of Louisville, the Rays grabbed Dodson in the second competitive balance round in 2018 and sent him out playing both ways. Strictly talking about his hitting here, he was successful in his pro debut, slashing .273/.344/.369 in 49 games, but he was hurt for most of 2019 and hit just .250/.286/.350 with a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games at High A Charlotte. Unless he were to give up pitching, which I see as less likely than the hitting, it's hard for me to see him developing into an impact hitter, but he does control the strike zone very well with strong bat to ball skills and good speed, so a fourth outfield profile fits really well. The switch hitter also carries his strong pitching arm to the outfield, which makes him above average out there, and I think he can remain a hitter up to the majors while he pitches.
- Nick Schnell (2020 Age: 20): Schnell was a compensation pick out of an Indianapolis-area high school in 2018, though he didn't quite break out in his first full pro season as optimistically hoped, slashing .265/.325/.448 with five home runs and an 84/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, at rookie level Princeton, and at Class A Bowling Green. It's not the worst thing in the world that Schnell came away from the season with just five home runs, as he was considered a bit raw anyways, as are most Midwestern high school kids. The Rays are no stranger to developing projects, and the hope is that they can revamp his approach at the plate to help him tap his considerable raw power more often, as swing and miss was a significant issue this past year. The good news is that he hit the ball hard when he did make contact, adding 14 doubles and six triples in those 55 games, and he's a good runner and a solid defender that isn't just a one dimensional player. He retains his significant upside, but it might take a bit of time and some luck to get there.
- Keep an eye on: Ryan Boldt, Carl Chester, Izzy Wilson, Garrett Whitley, Ruben Cardenas, Grant Witherspoon, Shane Sasaki
Starting Pitching
- Brendan McKay (2020 Age: 24): Look who's back, it's Brendan McKay from the corner infield section (though technically he's a DH). The 2017 fourth overall pick out of Louisville projects much better on the mound at this point, and in 2019 he posted a 1.10 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 102/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham, as well as a 5.14 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 56/16 strikeout to walk ratio in 49 major league innings. Because the major league rookie qualifier is 50 innings, McKay technically remains a prospect. He's an extreme pitchability left hander that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which he can morph into a cutter, and he adds a power curve and a changeup to go with them. Nothing really stands out as plus on its own, except potentially his curve when he stays on top of it really well, but he commands everything masterfully and, just as importantly, knows how to use his pitches to play off each other. Sometimes it's hard to project a pitchability guy like McKay as an ace, but you really never know given just how masterful he is at deploying his stuff, and it's quality stuff at that. I'd probably peg him as a number two long term.
- Brent Honeywell (2020 Age: 25): Honeywell was an elite prospect that was supposed to make an impact on the Rays' 2018 rotation right out of the gate, so while it's disappointing that we're still writing about him as a prospect here after the 2019 season, he retains his high upside. A competitive balance pick out of the Tennessee community college ranks in 2014, he dominated his way through the minors and by 2017 he had a career 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 458/93 strikeout to walk ratio over 416 innings. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 season, then a major setback in his rehab knocked out his 2019 season as well. He has as deep an arsenal as any player in the minors, coming in with five pitches led by a low to mid 90's fastball and an excellent screwball that just keeps dropping and dropping. His slider has some nice, late bite, his changeup adds excellent fade, and he can toss in a curveball as well. Honeywell's command was really good before the injuries, but unfortunately it's hard to say with confidence what it will look like when he returns. Overall, he has ace upside if he returns like the pitcher he was in 2017, with the ability to make the baseball move in virtually any direction while commanding it.
- Shane McClanahan (2020 Age: 23): Not only is McClanahan one of the top pitching prospects in a deep system, he's also a hometown guy. After graduating from Cape Coral High School down near Fort Myers, he attended USF and ended up getting picked in the compensation round in 2018. He looked excellent in his brief pro debut that year (seven shutout innings, 13 K's), then continued the great pitching into 2019 with a 3.36 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 154/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings at Class A Bowling Green, High A Charlotte, and AA Montgomery. It's been really interesting to watch his progression since Tommy John surgery wiped out his freshman season in 2016, as he was more of a thrower than a pitcher in college that relied on his mid to upper 90's fastball. His rawness was apparent at the start of the 2019 season, as he had a 3.40 ERA and a 74/31 strikeout to walk ratio against younger competition in Class A, but he took off with the promotion to High A with a 1.46 ERA and a 59/8 strikeout to walk ratio. The difference was in the command, as for the first time in his career, McClanahan was able to locate his pitches and make them play up and off each other rather than just saying "here's 100, hit it." He now sits in the low to mid 90's but can hit the upper 90's if he wants, adding an improving slider as well as a very good changeup that can play well off his fastball. If the gains he made with his command are sustained, he could be average or better in that regard, as well. He has less relief risk than he did a year ago, now with the chance to become a #2 starter if he can sharpen his breaking ball a bit more or improve his command a bit further. At present, though, he's still got some work to do and looks more like a #4 or a power reliever.
- Joe Ryan (2020 Age: 23-24): A seventh round senior sign out of Cal State Stanislaus in 2018, Ryan turned in one of the best pitching performances of any minor leaguer in 2019 and emerged as a true rotation prospect. After a nice 3.72 ERA and 51/14 strikeout to walk ratio in his pro debut, he came out in 2019 with a 1.96 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 183/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.2 innings at Class A Bowling Green, High A Charlotte, and AA Montgomery, the 183 strikeouts finishing second to only Kris Bubic's (Royals) 185. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a big, looping curveball with a lot of downward movement as well as a changeup, whileh is command has taken a big step forward in pro ball. That command is key, because it's enabled him to locate his pitches and make them play really well off each other, and it (in addition to a velocity bump) is what turned him from an unremarkable senior sign to the minors' #2 strikeout guy. Going forward, he'll need to refine his changeup a bit more, but he has the chance to be a #4 starter in Tampa.
- Tommy Romero (2020 Age: 22-23): Romero has flown a bit under the radar amid impressive pitching performances from bigger name prospects, but the Mariners' 15th round pick in 2017, who came over in the Alex Colome/Denard Span deal, has also been lights out. He's another Floridian who grew up in the Fort Lauderdale area before attending Eastern Florida State, and in 2019 he put up a 2.15 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 104/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings at High A Charlotte as well as one start at AA Montgomery. He's a 6'2" righty with average stuff, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding a curve, slider, and changeup, but he gets good extension on his pitches that helps them play up in addition to good command. He's likely more of a #4 or #5 starter, especially in this system, but you can't argue with the dominance he's had and we'll see how he handles the upper minors in 2020.
- Michael Plassmeyer (2020 Age: 23): Plassmeyer was a fourth round pick by the Mariners out of Missouri in 2018, then came over in the Mike Zunino/Mallex Smith deal after the season. 2019 was a breakthrough year, as he posted a 1.91 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 109/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings at Class A Bowling Green, High A Charlotte, and AAA Durham, making him one of quite a few Rays arms with sub-2.50 ERA's. He's seen a slight velocity bump in pro ball, now sitting just above 90, and it plays up from his three quarters arm slot. That slot also gives him a good, two-plane diving curveball, as well as a nice fading changeup, and he hits his spots very well. He doesn't have the highest upside in the system, but he has a good shot at being a #4 or #5 starter in the relatively near future.
- Shane Baz (2020 Age: 20-21): Baz was the Pirates' first round pick out of a Houston-area high school in 2017, then came over to the Rays as the player to be named later in the Chris Archer deal. Brought along slowly, he finally reached full season ball in 2019 and was successful, posting a 2.99 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an 87/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings at Class A Bowling Green. He came into pro ball with a deep, five pitch arsenal, but the Pirates and Rays have refined him down to three, as he now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding a great, sharp slider and a good changeup. The command has been a tick below what was originally expected, but given that he was already young for a high school draftee anyways, I don't think the Rays are overly worried about it at this point. He retains a high baseball IQ that will enable his stuff to consistently play up, and while he's been brought along cautiously so far, we have to expect the kid gloves will come off soon and he could start to race towards the majors as a potential future top of the rotation guy. He just has to improve that command back to average or a tick above.
- Drew Strotman (2020 Age: 23): Strotman was a fourth round pick out of St. Mary's in 2017, and his pro career got off to a hot start before he went down with Tommy John surgery in 2018. He returned late in 2019 to post a 4.50 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 24/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings between rehab work in the complex level Gulf Coast League and High A Charlotte, which was successful just in the fact that he was able to get on the mound. He's more of a back-end starter than a high ceiling prospect, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a slider, curve, and changeup, and he does a good job of throwing strikes with all of his pitches. Durability is the key here, but with a sturdy 6'3" build and with all the guys who have gotten Tommy John, I wouldn't call it a huge issue just yet. Look for him to move quickly once he's healthy.
- Resly Linares (2020 Age: 22): The Rays have brought Linares along slowly, and a season ending forearm strain in his second start of 2019 slowed that down even further. He's a projectable 6'2" with easy low 90's velocity and a nice, sharp curve, as well as a changeup, and he commands everything decently well. He has all the building blocks to become an impact #3 starter, but coming back and proving he's healthy in 2020 will be the first step. I liked Linares coming into the season and I still do, and the injury just makes him more of a sleeper than a big name prospect.
- John Doxakis (2020 Age: 21): Doxakis was a second round pick out of Texas A&M in 2019, and after dominating the SEC, he posted a 1.93 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 31/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings at short season Hudson Valley. Despite standing 6'4", he only throws about 90, adding a good slider and a changeup. What makes him so good is the deception in his delivery in addition to his command, causing all of his pitches to play up. There's also the chance that the Rays can add a tick or two to his velocity and get him consistently into the low 90's, which would help raise his ceiling from the current #4 or #5 starter he's projected as. Either way, he'll likely move quickly as someone who understands pitching and how to get hitters out.
- Seth Johnson (2020 Age: 21): Johnson was a light hitting infielder in the North Carolina junior college ranks, then a switch to the mound changed his career. Transferring to Campbell, he opened eyes immediately with his talented arm, and by the end of his first season as a pitcher in 2019 he was a competitive balance. In his pro debut, he put up a 2.12 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 16/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings between the complex level Gulf Coast League and rookie level Princeton, setting himself up to hopefully take another big step forward in 2020. Johnson sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of inconsistent secondary pitches, though with additional refinement, he could have multiple weapons at his disposal. He also does a good job of throwing strikes, which is a big boon for someone new to pitching, and the Rays are buying his fresh arm and advanced feel for spinning a breaking ball. He's an upside pick, not a safety pick, and he'll probably take some time to develop.
- JJ Goss (2020 Age: 19): Goss was a Rays' competitive balance pick out of a Houston-area high school in 2019, then posted a 5.82 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 16/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League. He's 6'3" righty that checks all the boxes you want to see in a young pitcher, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a very good slider and a fairly advanced changeup with a loose, projectable arm. He also does a good job of throwing strikes for his age, and together that gives him a very favorable projection as a #2 or a #3 starter with less risk than the typical high school arm. I really like this selection at #36 overall, especially considering the Rays didn't have to go above slot, and he could move fairly quickly for a teenager.
- Keep an eye on: Sam McWilliams, Paul Campbell, Faustino Carrera, Austin Franklin, Easton McGee, Zack Trageton, Ben Brecht, Evan McKendry, Taj Bradley, Sandy Gaston
Relief Pitching
- Peter Fairbanks (2020 Age: 26): A ninth round pick out of Missouri in 2015 who missed all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, Fairbanks is an older prospect who came over from the Rangers for Nick Solak in 2019. Between the two organizations, he had a 4.53 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 70/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.2 innings at High A, AA, and AAA, and he also put up a 6.86 ERA and a 28/10 strikeout to walk ratio across 21 major league innings. He has extremely short arm action but still throws in the mid to upper 90's, adding a hard downer slider that stands out more for its velocity than its movement. The 6'6" righty is unlikely to end up a closer considering his fringe-average command as well as the lack of a true plus breaking ball, but the velocity should help him be a valuable bullpen piece out of the gate in 2020.
- Phoenix Sanders (2020 Age: 24-25): Sanders is a hometown guy, as he grew up in Gainesville before attending USF and getting drafted in the tenth round as a senior in 2017, one round before his teammate Shane McClanahan joined the Rays organization. In 2019, he reached the upper minors and posted a 1.92 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 68/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham, putting him on the doorstep of pitching for his hometown team. He's a smaller guy at 5'10", sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a really nice breaking ball with late movement as well as a changeup. He also does a good job of throwing strikes, though he profiles more as a middle reliever than as a set-up man or a closer.
- Riley O'Brien (2020 Age: 25): A money saving senior sign, O'Brien was an eighth round pick out of the College of Idaho in 2017 but has just been getting guys out since he had a velocity bump in pro ball. In 2019, O'Brien put up a 3.16 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings at High A Charlotte and AA Montgomery, mostly on the power of a wicked slider. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but it's that slider that really helps him pick up a ton of swings and misses in any count. He also throws in a changeup, but his command is below average and that can cause his stuff to play down, and given the tremendous pitching depth in this system, it will probably force him to the bullpen. Given that he'll be 25 in February, that might not be the worst move, and it should accelerate his path to the bigs and help him become a power fastball/slider late inning reliever.
- Tanner Dodson (2020 Age: 22-23): You already read about Dodson as an outfielder, but he's probably an even better prospect as a pitcher. The Cal product shut down the New York-Penn League in his pro debut in 2018 (1.44 ERA, 25/5 K/BB), though he missed most of 2019 with injuries and finished with a 5.29 ERA, a 2.18 WHIP, and a 15/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings at High A Charlotte. He has a funky delivery that produces mid to upper 90's fastballs as well as sharp sliders and good fading changeups, and he typically throws enough strikes to make it all play up. Unless he were to give up hitting, I think it's strictly a relief-only profile, though he has shown the ability to go multiple innings. Getting back to full health should get him back on the fast track to the majors, as he's an advanced hitter as well, and he could be a useful part of both the Rays' bullpen and outfield going forward. If he were to give up hitting and focus exclusively on pitching, he has closer upside.
- Graeme Stinson (2020 Age: 22-23): Stinson is a complete wild card. A potential top ten pick coming into his junior season at Duke, he instead lasted just five starts before going down with a hamstring injury and never throwing another pitch for the Blue Devils. He's had his best success as a reliever, but the transition to the rotation was a disaster, with the Rays taking a chance on him in the fourth round in 2019. He has a powerful left arm, one that can sit in the low to mid 90's when he's healthy, and his power slider is already one of the best in the Rays's system. While the Rays could conceivably use a pro conditioning regimen to help him work back into the rotation, his most likely path forward is as a reliever, where his fastball/slider combination could be deadly. He does a decent job of throwing strikes and he brings high upside for a fourth round college draftee.
- Keep an eye on: Anthony Banda, Jack Labosky, Tyler Zombro, Tobias Myers, Simon Rosenblum-Larson
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